Paid by Cork
Jeff Benton
Jeff Benton Friday's MLB winners ... 10 Dime: ASTROS on the run line (-1 1/2 runs over Nationals) ... NOTE: Specify Oswalt and Olsen as starting pitchers. If either does not start, this play is VOID!
5 Dime: Marlins-Diamondbacks UNDER the total ... NOTE: Nolasco (Florida) and Haren (Arizona) must start this game or this play is VOID!
Astros (-1½ runs)
I made a bad call with Washington last night, but I’m not about to make the same mistake twice, and the reason is Houston starter Roy Oswalt. Oswalt has been a dominant second-half pitcher in recent years, going 25-6 with a 2.53 ERA after the All-Star break, including 10-2 with a 2.24 ERA in 13 post-break starts last year. Well, it looks like Oswalt gotten a head start in 2009.
Over his last three starts, the hard-throwing right-hander has given up a total of three runs (single runs in all three contests) on 12 hits with just five walks against 22 strikeouts over 23 innings. That equates to a scintillating 1.17 ERA. In his last two outings – both road victories over the Giants and Padres – Oswalt was virtually unhittable, giving up just five total hits and two runs in 17 innings with a 14-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
After struggling with consistency through the first 2 ½ months of the season, Oswalt is now 5-4 with a very respectable 3.81 ERA and a rock-solid 1.24 WHIP. In fact, he’s now got an 89-31 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and after serving up 12 home runs in his first 12 starts, he’s been taken deep just twice in his last six outings covering 44 innings. And no surprise to those who have followed Oswalt’s career, the guy is once again proving to be a workhorse, going at least six innings in 16 of 18 starts (and that includes one start in which he got yanked after one inning because of a lengthy rain delay).
Granted, the Astros haven’t exactly been world beaters when Oswalt pitches, going just 8-6 in his last 14 outings. But the last seven of those wins have been by multiple runs. No reason to think #8 won’t come tonight. After all, not only is Oswalt in a serious groove right now, but he’s 3-1 with a 2.97 ERA in his career against the Nationals/Expos, and his opponent tonight is lefty Scott Olsen. While Olsen is coming off back-to-back quality starts (five runs allowed in 15 2/3 innings against Florida and Atlanta), he’s still just 2-4 with a 6.04 ERA, including 1-3 with a 6.68 ERA on the road.
Washington is 2-7 overall in Olsen’s nine starts (1-5 on the road), and six of those seven defeats have been by more than one run. Finally, one of Olsen’s worst outings of the season came at home against Houston on May 5, when he gave up five runs in five innings in a game that was suspended in the 11th inning with the score tied at 10-10.
Throw in the fact that each of Houston’s last eight wins and 12 of the last 15 have been by multiple runs, while Washington has failed to cover the run line in 11 of its last 14 losses, and this one’s a no-brainer. Lay the 1½ runs with a dominant Oswalt and the home team.
Marlins-DBacks UNDER
How do you play an under when these two teams combined for 21 runs just last night, with Florida scoring 10 runs in the eighth inning alone? Easy: Just look at the starting pitchers in this contest. Start with Florida’s Ricky Nolasco. Nolasco has absolutely rediscovered himself since being sent to Triple-A after a horrid start to the season. In six starts since rejoining the big club, the big right-hander has given up a TOTAL of seven earned runs in 41 innings for a 1.54 ERA with a whopping 41-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his last five starts. And not only is the under 5-1 in Nolasco’s six starts since his recall, but the five “unders” have featured combined run totals of 5, 3, 7, 6 and 5 runs.
One more note about Nolasco: He’s 4-0 with a 2.12 ERA in four career starts against the DBacks, including 3-0 with a 1.61 ERA in three starts last year with Florida winning those three games by scores of 3-1, 3-1 and 5-2, all of them going under the number.
As for Arizona starter Dan Haren, what really needs to be said? The All-Star has a 2.16 ERA and a ridiculous 0.83 WHIP (100 baserunners in 121 innings) for the season. He has a 1.95 ERA in eight home starts, allowing just 13 runs, 35 hits and eight walks while striking out 58 in 60 innings.
And get this: Not only has Haren recorded eight consecutive quality starts, but he allowed one or two earned runs in all eight games while pitching at least seven innings in seven of those eight contests. In fact, prior to going six innings on Sunday in Colorado – Arizona won 4-3 – Haren had pitched at least seven innings in nine straight starts, and he’s lasted at least six frames in every single one of his 17 starts this season. Additionally, Haren faced Florida twice last year, giving up four earned runs in 13 1/3 innings (2.70 ERA), and though the DBacks lost both games, the scores were 4-0 and 4-3, both staying under the total.