<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#dddddd><TD vAlign=top>Wizard of Odds</TD><TD vAlign=top align=right>Guaranteed Selections</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top>Date: Saturday, November 08, 2008
$35.00 Guaranteed: TWO WORDS...LATE STEAM!!! That is what I have for you today! This is so BIG it can only be rated as my COLLEGE FOOTBALL LATE STEAM PLAY OF THE YEAR! and you can get this GUARANTEED WINNER for just $35 and you will pay only after you WIN! We are currently on a 81-36 run with all selections and we are 29-14 in College Football the this year! WE ARE ON FIRE!!! GET THIS WINNER!!</TD><TD vAlign=top noWrap align=right>11/8/2008</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2> </TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>COLLEGE FOOTBALL LATE STEAM PLAY OF THE YEAR
133 Florida -23.5 8:00 EST</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
$35.00 Guaranteed: TWO WORDS...LATE STEAM!!! That is what I have for you today! This is so BIG it can only be rated as my COLLEGE FOOTBALL LATE STEAM PLAY OF THE YEAR! and you can get this GUARANTEED WINNER for just $35 and you will pay only after you WIN! We are currently on a 81-36 run with all selections and we are 29-14 in College Football the this year! WE ARE ON FIRE!!! GET THIS WINNER!!</TD><TD vAlign=top noWrap align=right>11/8/2008</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2> </TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>COLLEGE FOOTBALL LATE STEAM PLAY OF THE YEAR
133 Florida -23.5 8:00 EST</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
I owe one to the forum for the wins the past 2 weeks haven't posted since Dr. Bob two weeks ago
Here is Chris Jordan's Blank Check
Chris Jordan
Saturday Winner ...
Analysis by 10 a.m. eastern
BLANK CHECK ALABAMA - I see the line on this game is -3 and -3-1/2 everywhere. I want you to buy the 1/2-point down and lay only -3 points. This is extremely important with a game like this, as we will not get beat by the hook in the event of a 3-point game.
1,000♦ MINNESOTA -
Note that my Rating System description will explain exactly how I handle Blank Check releases, versus the rated plays. Please scroll down my page to see how I fit the Blank Check games into my Money Management system.
Here is Chris Jordan's Blank Check
Chris Jordan
Saturday Winner ...
Analysis by 10 a.m. eastern
BLANK CHECK ALABAMA - I see the line on this game is -3 and -3-1/2 everywhere. I want you to buy the 1/2-point down and lay only -3 points. This is extremely important with a game like this, as we will not get beat by the hook in the event of a 3-point game.
1,000♦ MINNESOTA -
Note that my Rating System description will explain exactly how I handle Blank Check releases, versus the rated plays. Please scroll down my page to see how I fit the Blank Check games into my Money Management system.
SPORTS ADVISORS
(8) Oklahoma State (8-1, 8-0 ATS) at (2) Texas Tech (9-0, 4-3 ATS)
A week after toppling top-ranked Texas with a stunning last-second victory, things don’t get any easier for unbeaten Texas Tech as it welcomes the eighth-ranked Cowboys to Lubbock in today’s marquee game.
The Red Raiders jumped out to a 22-3 lead against Texas, then gave up 30 of the next 40 points, including surrendering the go-ahead touchdown with 1:29 to play. But QB Graham Harrell led the Tech offense on a 62-yard drive culminating with a 28-yard TD pass to Michael Crabtree with one second remaining to pull out a 39-33 victory as a 3½-point home underdog. The Red Raiders – off to a 9-0 start for the first time since 1938 – outgained the Longhorns 579-374, and Harrell was spectacular in completing 36 of 53 passes for 474 yards, two TDs and no INTs.
Oklahoma State bounced back from its first defeat of the season – a 28-24 setback at Texas as an 11½-point road underdog – with last week’s 59-17 rout of Iowa State, easily cashing as a 29½-point home favorite to improve to 9-0 ATS going back to last year’s bowl victory over Indiana. Against Iowa State, the Cowboys piled up a mindboggling 682 total yards (263 rushing) while allowing 362 (122 rushing), and QB Zac Robinson finished 18-for-27 for 395 yards with five TDs and one INT, and he also had 66 rushing yards on just six carries.
Texas Tech leads the Big 12 North standings at 5-0, with Texas, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State one game back at 4-1. Overall, those top four teams in the Big 12 North are a combined 33-3.
The home team has dominated this rivalry over the last decade, winning nine of 10 meetings, including the last six in a row. Last year in Stillwater, Okla., the Cowboys won a 49-45 shootout as a six-point home underdog with the teams combining for an astounding 1,328 total yards. Oklahoma State has covered the spread in the last three meetings (all as an underdog) after the Red Raiders had gone 5-0 ATS in the previous five.
Additionally, in this rivalry, the host is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings, the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five and Tech is 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in the last six at home against the Cowboys, who haven’t won in Lubbock since 1944.
As part of their ongoing 9-0 ATS hot streak, the Cowboys have cashed in all five Big 12 games and they’re 5-0 ATS against teams with a winning record. Oklahoma State has also cashed in six of its last seven on the road (3-0 ATS on the highway this year). Texas Tech is 4-1 ATS in its last five against winning teams and 4-2 ATS in its last six on artificial turf, but 2-4 ATS in its last six following a spread-cover.
Texas Tech ranks third nationally in scoring offense (47 points per game), second in total offense (559.3 total ypg), first in passing offense (424.6 ypg) and third in passing TDs (34). Meanwhile, Oklahoma State is in the Top 10 nationally in scoring offense (45.3 ppg, 5th), total offense (512 ypg, 7th) and rushing offense (273.6 ypg, 5th). Both offenses are guided by standout QBs in Texas Tech’s Harrell (70.7 completion rate, 3,621 yards, 30 TDs, five INTs) and OSU’s Robinson (69 percent, 2,085 yards, 20 TDs, 5 INTs; 341 rushing yards, 5 rushing TDs).
Defensively, both teams have been solid if not spectacular. The Red Raiders are giving up 22.4 points and 349.6 yards per game (98.7 rushing ypg), while Oklahoma State yields 21 points and 357.8 yards per contest (117.2 rushing ypg).
The over is 17-7 in Oklahoma State’s last 24 lined games in November, but the under is 7-0 in its last seven on the road and 5-2 in its last seven conference contests. For Texas Tech, the over is 3-1-1 in its last five overall (all against Big 12 foes), but the under is 5-1-1 in its last seven at home. Lastly, the under is 3-1 in the last four head-to-head meetings in this rivalry, with last year’s contest being the one that soared over the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(1) Alabama (9-0, 6-3 ATS) at (15) LSU (6-2, 2-5 ATS)
Alabama coach Nick Saban makes his much-anticipated return to LSU when he leads the top-ranked Crimson Tide into Tiger Stadium for an SEC West showdown.
The Tide stepped out of conference last Saturday and throttled Arkansas State 35-0 as a 23½-point home chalk, ascending to the top spot in the rankings when Texas lost later that evening at Texas Tech. Alabama has won its last two games by a combined score of 64-9, outgaining Arkansas State and Tennessee by a combined 392 total yards.
LSU erased the bitter taste left by a 52-38 home shellacking by Georgia with last week’s 35-10 non-conference win over Tulane, but the Tigers failed to cash as a 30-point home favorite. Les Miles’ squad has alternated wins and losses its last five outings, going 1-4 ATS overall and 0-3 ATS home.
The Tigers have won five straight meetings in this rivalry (3-1-1 ATS), with three of those wins (2-0-1 ATS) occurring when Saban was the head man at LSU. Last year – his first at Alabama – Saban and the Tide gave the Tigers a game, eventually falling 41-34 as a 6½-point home underdog. The favorite is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six clashes, ‘Bama is 7-1 ATS in its last eight trips to Baton Rouge and the visitor is on a 12-2-2 ATS roll in this rivalry.
Alabama, which was a pointspread disaster a season ago, is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games overall and has cashed in all four of its road games this year. However, the Crimson Tide are just 1-5 ATS in their last six in November. Meanwhile, LSU presents nothing but negative ATS trends, including 1-4 overall, 1-8 at home (0-4 this year), 3-9-1 in SEC play and 3-7-1 following a non-cover.
For Alabama, the under is on runs of 4-0 overall, 4-0 in November and 5-2 in SEC play. Conversely, the Tigers carry nothing but “over” streaks, including 12-4 overall, 7-3 at home, 10-3 on grass, 5-1 in November, 10-2 in SEC contests and 9-2 against winning teams. Finally, the last two meetings between these schools have topped the total after the previous four stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ALABAMA
(12) Ohio State (7-2, 2-6 ATS) at Northwestern (7-2, 4-4 ATS)
After a week off, the Buckeyes return to action against the surprise of the Big Ten when they invade Ryan Field in Evanston, Ill. for a matchup with Northwestern.
Ohio State had its five-game winning streak (2-3 ATS) snapped two weeks ago in a 13-6 home loss to Penn State, giving up 10 fourth-quarter points and failing to cash as a 1½-point ‘dog. The Buckeyes have won two straight on the road (2-0 ATS) in conference action, including a 45-7 rout of Michigan State back on Oct. 18 as 3½-point favorites. Freshman QB Terrelle Pryor has completed 65.2 percent of his throws for 879 yards, six TDs and three INTs, but committed a costly turnover in the final period against Penn State that led to a Nittany Lions’ touchdown.
Northwestern got a gift-wrapped win Saturday returning an interception 48 yards for a touchdown with 12 seconds left to beat Minnesota 24-17, cashing as a 7½-point road underdog. In the victory – the school’s first over a ranked opponent since 2005 – the Wildcats got 217 yards rushing from backup QB Mike Kafka who will be on the sideline today if starter C.J. Bacher is deemed healthy enough to go.
Ohio State has won the last three meetings (3-0 ATS) against Northwestern and nine of the last 10 (5-4-1 ATS). Last season, the Buckeyes cruised to a 58-7 win, easily cashing as 23½-point favorites. Since Northwestern’s 33-27 overtime win over Ohio State in 2004, the Buckeyes have outscored the Wildcats 160-24 in the three straight wins.
The Buckeyes are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine overall and 2-5 ATS in their last seven against a team with a winning record, but otherwise they are on ATS tears of 13-4 on the road, 24-10 in Big Ten games and 7-3 in November contests. Northwestern is on ATS slides of 19-40-1 after a straight-up win and 0-6 after a spread-cover.
For Ohio State, the under is 6-2 in its last eight overall, but the over is 4-1 in its last five November games and 5-1 its last six outings on grass. Meanwhile, the Wildcats have stayed under the total in nine of their last 13 overall and eight of their last 10 in November. Lastly, the over is 3-1 in the last four meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OHIO STATE
(22) Georgia Tech (7-2, 6-1 ATS) at (19) North Carolina (6-2, 4-3 ATS)
It’s a key showdown in the ACC’s Coastal Division as the division-leading Yellow Jackets travel to Chapel Hill, N.C., to take on North Carolina.
The Tar Heels had last weekend off after beating then-No. 23 Boston College 45-24 on Oct. 25 as a three-point home favorite. QB Cameron Sexton threw for 238 yards and three TDs against Boston College and WR Hakeem Nicks had 139 yards receiving and scored a career-high four TDs. North Carolina is now bowl-eligible and off to its best start since 1997, but the Heels still trail the Yellow Jackets in the race for the division title.
Georgia Tech beat Florida State 31-28 a week ago, recovering a fumble in the end zone with 45 seconds left to secure the victory while pushing as a three-point chalk. The Yellow Jackets’ rushing attack leads the conference at 242.3 yards per game, and RB Jonathan Dwyer, who averages 99.9 yards rushing per game, rattled off 145 yards and two TDs on 13 carries and against the Seminoles.
The ‘Jackets have won three straight against the Tar Heels, but they’ve failed to cash in the last four, and they’re 9-1 SU in the last 10 meetings (5-5 ATS). Last year, Tech scored a 27-25 win but fell well short as 10½-point home favorites. The last time these two met in Chapel Hill, Georgia Tech prevailed 7-0 win as a 13½-point favorite.
Georgia Tech is on ATS runs of 5-1-1 overall, 5-0 on the road and 4-1-1 in ACC games. North Carolina is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 against teams with a winning record, but just 1-5 ATS in its last six after a spread-cover.
For the Yellow Jackets, the under is on streaks of 5-2 overall, 4-1 on the road, 5-1 in ACC contests and 5-0 after a straight-up win. However, for the ‘Heels, the over is on runs of 4-1 overall, 10-4 after a SU victory and 4-0 against teams with a winning record. Finally, the under has been the play four of the last five series meetings between these schools in Chapel Hill.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Virginia (5-4, 4-4 ATS) at Wake Forest (5-3, 3-5 ATS)
The Cavaliers will try to make it four in a row over Wake Forest when they travel to Groves Stadium in Winston-Salem, N.C., in an ACC matchup.
Both teams are within striking distance of their respective division leaders, but the Cavs let one get away last week against Miami, falling 24-17 in overtime as one-point home favorites. Virginia had won and covered four in a row prior to the loss to the ‘Canes, as the Cavs blew a late 17-10 lead then fumbled on their lone possession in overtime to cost them the game. The defense gave up 448 total yards to the Hurricanes, including 197 on the ground.
Wake Forest snapped a two-game losing streak with a 33-30 overtime home win over Duke last weekend, failing as an eight-point favorite. The Demon Deacons have failed to cash in three straight games and are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven. The offense scored 33 points after only getting 34 total points in four previous ACC contests. QB Riley Skinner threw for 232 yards and a TD in the win, and for the season he has 1,576 passing yards, eight TDs and four INTs.
Virginia has won three straight (1-2 ATS) and nine of 10 (4-5-1 ATS) against Wake Forest, including a 17-16 win a season ago, narrowly missing as a 1½-point favorite. The Cavaliers haven’t been to Winston-Salem since 2002 when they scored a 38-34 win as 1½-point favorites, one of four straight wins (3-0-1 ATS) for the Cavs at Wake Forest.
Virginia is just 7-15 ATS in its last 22 road games and 1-4 ATS in its last five November games, but the Cavaliers are on positive pointspread streaks of 21-10 after a straight-up loss, 4-1 overall and 4-1 against teams with a winning record. Wake Forest has failed to cash in four of its last five but is on ATS runs of 15-7 against teams with a winning record, 9-2 after a non-cover and 7-3 after a SU win.
For the Cavs, the under is on runs of 5-1 overall, 7-3-1 on the road, 21-7-3 in ACC contests and 10-3 in November. Meanwhile, the Demon Deacons are on under streaks of 18-8-1 at home, 4-1 in ACC play and 5-1 overall, but the over is 4-0 in their last four November contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Clemson (4-4, 1-5 ATS) at (24) Florida State (6-2, 3-3 ATS)
Clemson, which hasn’t won consecutive games over Division I-A opponents all season, looks to end that streak when it visits Tallahassee for an ACC clash with the Seminoles.
The Tigers snapped a three-game SU and an eight-game ATS losing skid with last week’s 27-21 victory at Boston College, cashing as a three-point road underdog for its first win and cover since coach Tommy Bowden resigned on Oct. 13. Clemson rushed for just 87 yards in the victory, but RB C.J. Spiller was a one-man wrecking crew with 55 rushing yards, 105 receiving yards and 64 yards on a kickoff return.
Florida State had its four-game winning streak (3-1 ATS) snapped in last week’s 31-28 loss at Georgia Tech, pushing as a three-point ‘dog. RB Jermaine Thomas rushed for 130 yards against the Yellow Jackets, and the freshman is expected see more time in the backfield today for Bobby Bowden’s squad, which averages 193 rushing yards per game.
The Tigers owned the annual Bowden Bowl matching son Tommy against father Bobby, winning four of the last five SU and ATS, including going 3-0 SU and ATS in the last three dating back to 2003. Last year, Clemson prevailed 24-18 as a 3½-point home underdog, and the last time the Tigers were in Tallahassee they got a 27-20 win as a four-point pup. The home team is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 series clashes and the straight-up winner is 9-1 ATS in those 10.
Clemson is on a bevy of negative ATS trends, including 1-8 overall, 1-5 in ACC games, 0-4 after a straight-up win and 1-6 against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, the Seminoles are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games but just 4-9-2 ATS in their last 15 November contests.
For the Tigers, the under is on streaks of 8-1 overall, 5-1 in conference games, 7-3 after a spread-cover and 6-1 against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, the under is 17-7 in Florida State’s last 24 November outings, but otherwise the ‘Noles are on “over” streaks of 4-1 overall and 10-3 after a straight-up loss. Also, the over is 5-2 in the last seven head-to-head meetings in this rivalry and 4-0 in the last four clashes at Florida State.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
(6) Oklahoma (8-1, 6-2 ATS) at Texas A&M (4-5 SU and ATS)
Oklahoma and its high-octane offense invade College Station for a Big 12 North clash with the suddenly surging Aggies.
The Sooners throttled Nebraska 62-28 as a 21-point home favorite last week, and since a 45-35 loss to Texas, Bob Stoops’ squad has put up 45, 58 and 62 points, with 128 of those 165 points being scored in the first half. Against the Huskers, Oklahoma led 35-0 after the first quarter, finished with a 508-418 edge in total offense and forced four turnovers, while QB Sam Bradford (19-for-27, 311 yards, 5 TDs, 1 INT) had another outstanding day.
Texas A&M began the Big 12 season with three straight double-digit losses but has bounced back the last two weeks with victories over Iowa State (49-35 on the road) and Colorado (24-17 at home). The Aggies have also followed up an 0-4 ATS slump with three straight spread-covers despite getting outgained in all three contests.
Oklahoma has won four straight meetings in this rivalry, but is just 1-3 ATS, with the lone spread-cover coming in last year’s 42-14 rout as a 21-point home chalk. Going back to 1998, the Sooners have made five trips to College Station, going 3-2 SU, but 0-5 ATS, with the three victories coming by a total of 12 points, the latter being a 17-16 victory in 2006. In fact, the host is 9-1 ATS in this rivalry going back to ’98, and OU has failed to cover in seven straight trips to Kyle Field.
The Sooners are on ATS runs of 6-2 overall, 4-0 on the road, 5-2 in Big 12 action, and 5-2 in November, and they’re 3-0 ATS as favorite of 20 points or more this season. Meanwhile, A&M is on pointspread tears 6-2-1 as a home underdog in Big 12 play, 6-1 against ranked teams at home, 7-1-1 ATS November and 5-2 in league contests, but the Aggies are in ATS skids of 2-5 at home and 1-7 after a SU victory.
For Oklahoma, the over is on runs of 5-0 overall (all in conference) and 4-1 when playing on grass, but the under is 9-4 in its last 13 road contests. For Texas A&M, the over streaks include 4-1 overall, 6-1 in conference and 13-6-2 in November. Finally, in this rivalry, the over is on runs of 4-1-1 overall and 3-1-1 in College Station.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS A&M and OVER
Kansas (6-3, 5-3 ATS) at Nebraska (5-4, 4-5 ATS)
Two teams looking to keep their Big 12 North title hopes alive clash at Memorial Stadium, as the Huskers host Kansas, which hasn’t won in Lincoln in 40 years.
Nebraska went to Oklahoma last week and got squashed 62-28 as a 21-point road underdog, snapping a two-game SU winning streak. Although the Cornhuskers finished with 418 total yards, they were never in the game as they trailed 35-0 after one quarter and committed four turnovers. Bo Pellini’s squad, which is 2-4 ATS in its last six games, has put up at least 28 points in eight of its nine games.
The Jayhawks rebounded from a humiliating 63-21 home loss to Texas Tech with last week’s 52-21 thrashing of archrival Kansas State, easily cashing as an eight-point home chalk. Kansas, which jumped out to a 31-0 halftime lead, piled up 469 total yards (280 rushing) and the defense held K-State to 355 yards while forcing five turnovers.
Kansas obliterated the Huskers exactly a year ago, rolling to a 76-39 victory as a 19-point favorite. The Jayhawks, who have taken two of the last three meetings after losing 36 in a row to Nebraska, have cashed in each of the last four series clashes, all of which were won by the home team. Finally, six of the last eight series battles were double-digit blowouts.
Kansas sports ATS streaks of 20-6 overall, 14-4 in conference, 7-1 on the road, 4-1 in November and 5-1 against winning teams, but the Jayhawks are 4-20 ATS in their last 24 November road games. On the flip side, Nebraska is stuck in pointspread funks of 6-14 overall, 4-9 at Memorial Stadium, 4-10 in Big 12 play and 4-9 after a non-cover.
The over is on runs of 5-1 for Kansas overall, 4-1 for Kansas on the road, 4-1 for Kansas in Big 12 play, 9-2 for Kansas in November, 16-7 for Nebraska at home and 30-7 for Nebraska in November contests. Lastly, each of the last three meetings between these schools have topped the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: KANSAS and OVER
(3) Penn State (9-0, 6-1-1 ATS) at Iowa (5-4, 4-3-1 ATS)
Penn State resumes its national championship chase when it heads to Iowa, where it hasn’t won since 1999, for a Big Ten battle against the Hawkeyes.
The Nittany Lions took last week off after rallying for a 13-6 victory at Ohio State as a two-point road chalk. Penn State won despite being held to a season-low in points, as the defense carried the day, giving up just 287 total yards (61 rushing) and forcing a critical fourth-quarter turnover that led to the game-winning touchdown. Joe Paterno’s squad has won 10 straight games (7-1-1 ATS) dating to last year’s bowl victory over Alabama.
Iowa’s two-game SU winning streak and three-game ATS run ended in heartbreaking fashion last week, as it allowed Illinois to kick a game-winning, 46-yard field goal with 24 seconds remaining to fall 27-24, coming up short as a 2½-point road underdog. The Hawkeyes are 4-1 at home this year (2-2 ATS in lined games).
Penn State ended a five-game losing streak to Iowa last year, rolling to a 27-7 home victory as a 10-point chalk. Still, the Hawkeyes are 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings (5-1 ATS as an underdog), and the pup is also 6-2 ATS in the last eight.
The Nittany Lions are 4-0-1 ATS on the highway and 4-1 ATS on grass during their current 10-game SU winning streak. Meanwhile, the Hawkeyes are 36-16 ATS in their last 52 home contests, 6-3-1 ATS in their last 10 as a pup and 4-1 ATS in their last five on grass, but they’ve now failed to cash in six of their last seven November contests.
Despite producing just one touchdown and 281 total yards against Ohio State, the Nittany Lions are still putting up 41.8 ppg and 459.8 total ypg (226.3 rushing ypg) while the defense is yielding just 11.1 points and 266 total ypg, figures that rank fourth and sixth in the nation, respectively. As for the Hawkeyes, they’re averaging 29 points and 379.6 total yards per outing (189.4 rushing ypg), and the stout defense is limiting foes to 13.2 points and 301.6 total yards per outing.
The under is on streaks of 6-2 for Penn State in November, 15-5-1 for Iowa overall, 7-3-1 for Iowa in Big Ten action and 13-5 for Iowa on grass. Finally, the past two series meetings in this rivalry have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: IOWA and UNDER
Cincinnati (6-2, 3-4 ATS) at (20) West Virginia (6-2, 3-4 ATS)
Two of the top three teams in the Big East get together in Morgantown, where West Virginia looks to extend a five-game winning steak with a victory over visiting Cincinnati.
The Mountaineers went into the locker room at UConn last Saturday trailing 13-7 at halftime, then came out and scored the game’s final 28 points, finishing with 35-13 victory as a 3½-point road favorite. QB Pat White accounted for 230 of West Virginia’s 337 total yards (121 passing, 109 rushing) and had three total TDs (two rushing, one passing), while the Mountaineer defense gave up only 285 yards while notching five turnovers.
Cincinnati knocked South Florida out of the Top 25 with last Thursday’s impressive 24-10 victory as a 2½-point home underdog, the third time in the last four games that the Bearcats held an opponent to exactly 10 points. Going back to the middle of 2005, Cincinnati is on a 23-7 SU run and an 18-9-2 ATS streak
The Mountaineers lead the Big East (3-0, 1-2 ATS), while Cincinnati (2-1, 1-2 ATS) is tied with Pitt for second place.
West Virginia has owned this rivalry, winning eight of nine meetings going back to 1987, including the last three in a row. In 2007, the Mountaineers went to Cincinnati and jumped out to a 28-10 lead before holding on for a 28-23 victory but coming up just short as a 5½-point road chalk. The ‘dog and the road team are both 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
The Bearcats are on ATS runs of 8-3-1 as an underdog since 2006, 4-1-1 in November and 11-4-1 against winning teams, but they’re 1-5 ATS in their last six after a SU victory. Meanwhile, West Virginia has followed up a 1-4 ATS slump with consecutive spread-covers for the first time since last year. However, the Mounties are still 2-5 ATS in their last seven Big East affairs.
The over is 8-3-1 in Cincy’s last 12 road games, 6-2 in its last eight in November and 15-4 in West Virginia’s last 19 in November. Otherwise, the under is on streaks of 4-1 for the Bearcats overall, 4-0 for the Bearcats on artificial turf, 5-2 for West Virginia overall, 4-1 for West Virginia at home and 3-1 in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
(21) Cal (6-2 SU and ATS) at (7) USC (7-1, 5-2 ATS)
USC figures to face its stiffest challenge since suffering its only loss of the season at Oregon State when it welcomes 21st-ranked Cal to the L.A. Coliseum for a battle between Pac-10 rivals.
The Trojans had their way with winless Washington last week, jumping out to a 42-0 halftime lead en route to a 56-0 victory as a 45-point home chalk. It was the third shutout in the last four games for USC, which has allowed 10 points or fewer in all seven of its victories. The Trojans lead the nation in scoring defense (7.1 ppg), total defense (211.6 ypg) and passing defense (127.5 passing ypg) and they rank fifth in rushing defense (84.1 ypg).
USC has won five in a row (3-2 ATS) since its stunning 27-21 loss at Oregon State as a 24-point road chalk, but has alternated spread-covers in its last seven outings. Also, Pete Carroll’s squad is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS at home, outscoring its visitors by an aggregate margin of 163-13, giving up just one touchdown.
Cal fought off a steady downpour and took care of Oregon 26-16 as a 2½-point home favorite last week for its second straight win and cover. The Bears finished with a 348-290 edge in total offense and overcame five turnovers (four fumbles) to secure the win. Cal has outgained nine of its last 10 opponents going back to last season.
The Trojans traveled north last year and beat Cal 24-17 as a four-point road chalk. USC has won four in a row in this series and covered the spread in the last three. However, prior to that, the Bears were on a 6-1 ATS roll in this rivalry, and they’re 5-1 ATS in their last six trips to the Coliseum (all as an underdog). In fact, the visitor is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 head-to-head tussles.
Cal is 4-1 ATS in its last five outings (all in Pac-10 play), but they’re still mired in pointspread slumps of 2-9 on the highway, 1-5 as an underdog dating to 2005, 1-6 in November and 3-14 on grass. Conversely, USC sports positive ATS trends of 9-4 overall, 4-1 at home, 21-5 in November and 8-3 on grass.
The under is 4-0 the last four years in this rivalry. Additionally, the under is on runs of 19-7-1 for USC overall, 14-3-1 for USC at home, 21-6-1 for USC in Pac-10 games and 5-1 for Cal in November. However, the Bears have topped the total in four of their last five on the highway.
ATS ADVANTAGE: USC and UNDER
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(8) Oklahoma State (8-1, 8-0 ATS) at (2) Texas Tech (9-0, 4-3 ATS)
A week after toppling top-ranked Texas with a stunning last-second victory, things don’t get any easier for unbeaten Texas Tech as it welcomes the eighth-ranked Cowboys to Lubbock in today’s marquee game.
The Red Raiders jumped out to a 22-3 lead against Texas, then gave up 30 of the next 40 points, including surrendering the go-ahead touchdown with 1:29 to play. But QB Graham Harrell led the Tech offense on a 62-yard drive culminating with a 28-yard TD pass to Michael Crabtree with one second remaining to pull out a 39-33 victory as a 3½-point home underdog. The Red Raiders – off to a 9-0 start for the first time since 1938 – outgained the Longhorns 579-374, and Harrell was spectacular in completing 36 of 53 passes for 474 yards, two TDs and no INTs.
Oklahoma State bounced back from its first defeat of the season – a 28-24 setback at Texas as an 11½-point road underdog – with last week’s 59-17 rout of Iowa State, easily cashing as a 29½-point home favorite to improve to 9-0 ATS going back to last year’s bowl victory over Indiana. Against Iowa State, the Cowboys piled up a mindboggling 682 total yards (263 rushing) while allowing 362 (122 rushing), and QB Zac Robinson finished 18-for-27 for 395 yards with five TDs and one INT, and he also had 66 rushing yards on just six carries.
Texas Tech leads the Big 12 North standings at 5-0, with Texas, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State one game back at 4-1. Overall, those top four teams in the Big 12 North are a combined 33-3.
The home team has dominated this rivalry over the last decade, winning nine of 10 meetings, including the last six in a row. Last year in Stillwater, Okla., the Cowboys won a 49-45 shootout as a six-point home underdog with the teams combining for an astounding 1,328 total yards. Oklahoma State has covered the spread in the last three meetings (all as an underdog) after the Red Raiders had gone 5-0 ATS in the previous five.
Additionally, in this rivalry, the host is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings, the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five and Tech is 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in the last six at home against the Cowboys, who haven’t won in Lubbock since 1944.
As part of their ongoing 9-0 ATS hot streak, the Cowboys have cashed in all five Big 12 games and they’re 5-0 ATS against teams with a winning record. Oklahoma State has also cashed in six of its last seven on the road (3-0 ATS on the highway this year). Texas Tech is 4-1 ATS in its last five against winning teams and 4-2 ATS in its last six on artificial turf, but 2-4 ATS in its last six following a spread-cover.
Texas Tech ranks third nationally in scoring offense (47 points per game), second in total offense (559.3 total ypg), first in passing offense (424.6 ypg) and third in passing TDs (34). Meanwhile, Oklahoma State is in the Top 10 nationally in scoring offense (45.3 ppg, 5th), total offense (512 ypg, 7th) and rushing offense (273.6 ypg, 5th). Both offenses are guided by standout QBs in Texas Tech’s Harrell (70.7 completion rate, 3,621 yards, 30 TDs, five INTs) and OSU’s Robinson (69 percent, 2,085 yards, 20 TDs, 5 INTs; 341 rushing yards, 5 rushing TDs).
Defensively, both teams have been solid if not spectacular. The Red Raiders are giving up 22.4 points and 349.6 yards per game (98.7 rushing ypg), while Oklahoma State yields 21 points and 357.8 yards per contest (117.2 rushing ypg).
The over is 17-7 in Oklahoma State’s last 24 lined games in November, but the under is 7-0 in its last seven on the road and 5-2 in its last seven conference contests. For Texas Tech, the over is 3-1-1 in its last five overall (all against Big 12 foes), but the under is 5-1-1 in its last seven at home. Lastly, the under is 3-1 in the last four head-to-head meetings in this rivalry, with last year’s contest being the one that soared over the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(1) Alabama (9-0, 6-3 ATS) at (15) LSU (6-2, 2-5 ATS)
Alabama coach Nick Saban makes his much-anticipated return to LSU when he leads the top-ranked Crimson Tide into Tiger Stadium for an SEC West showdown.
The Tide stepped out of conference last Saturday and throttled Arkansas State 35-0 as a 23½-point home chalk, ascending to the top spot in the rankings when Texas lost later that evening at Texas Tech. Alabama has won its last two games by a combined score of 64-9, outgaining Arkansas State and Tennessee by a combined 392 total yards.
LSU erased the bitter taste left by a 52-38 home shellacking by Georgia with last week’s 35-10 non-conference win over Tulane, but the Tigers failed to cash as a 30-point home favorite. Les Miles’ squad has alternated wins and losses its last five outings, going 1-4 ATS overall and 0-3 ATS home.
The Tigers have won five straight meetings in this rivalry (3-1-1 ATS), with three of those wins (2-0-1 ATS) occurring when Saban was the head man at LSU. Last year – his first at Alabama – Saban and the Tide gave the Tigers a game, eventually falling 41-34 as a 6½-point home underdog. The favorite is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six clashes, ‘Bama is 7-1 ATS in its last eight trips to Baton Rouge and the visitor is on a 12-2-2 ATS roll in this rivalry.
Alabama, which was a pointspread disaster a season ago, is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games overall and has cashed in all four of its road games this year. However, the Crimson Tide are just 1-5 ATS in their last six in November. Meanwhile, LSU presents nothing but negative ATS trends, including 1-4 overall, 1-8 at home (0-4 this year), 3-9-1 in SEC play and 3-7-1 following a non-cover.
For Alabama, the under is on runs of 4-0 overall, 4-0 in November and 5-2 in SEC play. Conversely, the Tigers carry nothing but “over” streaks, including 12-4 overall, 7-3 at home, 10-3 on grass, 5-1 in November, 10-2 in SEC contests and 9-2 against winning teams. Finally, the last two meetings between these schools have topped the total after the previous four stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ALABAMA
(12) Ohio State (7-2, 2-6 ATS) at Northwestern (7-2, 4-4 ATS)
After a week off, the Buckeyes return to action against the surprise of the Big Ten when they invade Ryan Field in Evanston, Ill. for a matchup with Northwestern.
Ohio State had its five-game winning streak (2-3 ATS) snapped two weeks ago in a 13-6 home loss to Penn State, giving up 10 fourth-quarter points and failing to cash as a 1½-point ‘dog. The Buckeyes have won two straight on the road (2-0 ATS) in conference action, including a 45-7 rout of Michigan State back on Oct. 18 as 3½-point favorites. Freshman QB Terrelle Pryor has completed 65.2 percent of his throws for 879 yards, six TDs and three INTs, but committed a costly turnover in the final period against Penn State that led to a Nittany Lions’ touchdown.
Northwestern got a gift-wrapped win Saturday returning an interception 48 yards for a touchdown with 12 seconds left to beat Minnesota 24-17, cashing as a 7½-point road underdog. In the victory – the school’s first over a ranked opponent since 2005 – the Wildcats got 217 yards rushing from backup QB Mike Kafka who will be on the sideline today if starter C.J. Bacher is deemed healthy enough to go.
Ohio State has won the last three meetings (3-0 ATS) against Northwestern and nine of the last 10 (5-4-1 ATS). Last season, the Buckeyes cruised to a 58-7 win, easily cashing as 23½-point favorites. Since Northwestern’s 33-27 overtime win over Ohio State in 2004, the Buckeyes have outscored the Wildcats 160-24 in the three straight wins.
The Buckeyes are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine overall and 2-5 ATS in their last seven against a team with a winning record, but otherwise they are on ATS tears of 13-4 on the road, 24-10 in Big Ten games and 7-3 in November contests. Northwestern is on ATS slides of 19-40-1 after a straight-up win and 0-6 after a spread-cover.
For Ohio State, the under is 6-2 in its last eight overall, but the over is 4-1 in its last five November games and 5-1 its last six outings on grass. Meanwhile, the Wildcats have stayed under the total in nine of their last 13 overall and eight of their last 10 in November. Lastly, the over is 3-1 in the last four meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OHIO STATE
(22) Georgia Tech (7-2, 6-1 ATS) at (19) North Carolina (6-2, 4-3 ATS)
It’s a key showdown in the ACC’s Coastal Division as the division-leading Yellow Jackets travel to Chapel Hill, N.C., to take on North Carolina.
The Tar Heels had last weekend off after beating then-No. 23 Boston College 45-24 on Oct. 25 as a three-point home favorite. QB Cameron Sexton threw for 238 yards and three TDs against Boston College and WR Hakeem Nicks had 139 yards receiving and scored a career-high four TDs. North Carolina is now bowl-eligible and off to its best start since 1997, but the Heels still trail the Yellow Jackets in the race for the division title.
Georgia Tech beat Florida State 31-28 a week ago, recovering a fumble in the end zone with 45 seconds left to secure the victory while pushing as a three-point chalk. The Yellow Jackets’ rushing attack leads the conference at 242.3 yards per game, and RB Jonathan Dwyer, who averages 99.9 yards rushing per game, rattled off 145 yards and two TDs on 13 carries and against the Seminoles.
The ‘Jackets have won three straight against the Tar Heels, but they’ve failed to cash in the last four, and they’re 9-1 SU in the last 10 meetings (5-5 ATS). Last year, Tech scored a 27-25 win but fell well short as 10½-point home favorites. The last time these two met in Chapel Hill, Georgia Tech prevailed 7-0 win as a 13½-point favorite.
Georgia Tech is on ATS runs of 5-1-1 overall, 5-0 on the road and 4-1-1 in ACC games. North Carolina is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 against teams with a winning record, but just 1-5 ATS in its last six after a spread-cover.
For the Yellow Jackets, the under is on streaks of 5-2 overall, 4-1 on the road, 5-1 in ACC contests and 5-0 after a straight-up win. However, for the ‘Heels, the over is on runs of 4-1 overall, 10-4 after a SU victory and 4-0 against teams with a winning record. Finally, the under has been the play four of the last five series meetings between these schools in Chapel Hill.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Virginia (5-4, 4-4 ATS) at Wake Forest (5-3, 3-5 ATS)
The Cavaliers will try to make it four in a row over Wake Forest when they travel to Groves Stadium in Winston-Salem, N.C., in an ACC matchup.
Both teams are within striking distance of their respective division leaders, but the Cavs let one get away last week against Miami, falling 24-17 in overtime as one-point home favorites. Virginia had won and covered four in a row prior to the loss to the ‘Canes, as the Cavs blew a late 17-10 lead then fumbled on their lone possession in overtime to cost them the game. The defense gave up 448 total yards to the Hurricanes, including 197 on the ground.
Wake Forest snapped a two-game losing streak with a 33-30 overtime home win over Duke last weekend, failing as an eight-point favorite. The Demon Deacons have failed to cash in three straight games and are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven. The offense scored 33 points after only getting 34 total points in four previous ACC contests. QB Riley Skinner threw for 232 yards and a TD in the win, and for the season he has 1,576 passing yards, eight TDs and four INTs.
Virginia has won three straight (1-2 ATS) and nine of 10 (4-5-1 ATS) against Wake Forest, including a 17-16 win a season ago, narrowly missing as a 1½-point favorite. The Cavaliers haven’t been to Winston-Salem since 2002 when they scored a 38-34 win as 1½-point favorites, one of four straight wins (3-0-1 ATS) for the Cavs at Wake Forest.
Virginia is just 7-15 ATS in its last 22 road games and 1-4 ATS in its last five November games, but the Cavaliers are on positive pointspread streaks of 21-10 after a straight-up loss, 4-1 overall and 4-1 against teams with a winning record. Wake Forest has failed to cash in four of its last five but is on ATS runs of 15-7 against teams with a winning record, 9-2 after a non-cover and 7-3 after a SU win.
For the Cavs, the under is on runs of 5-1 overall, 7-3-1 on the road, 21-7-3 in ACC contests and 10-3 in November. Meanwhile, the Demon Deacons are on under streaks of 18-8-1 at home, 4-1 in ACC play and 5-1 overall, but the over is 4-0 in their last four November contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Clemson (4-4, 1-5 ATS) at (24) Florida State (6-2, 3-3 ATS)
Clemson, which hasn’t won consecutive games over Division I-A opponents all season, looks to end that streak when it visits Tallahassee for an ACC clash with the Seminoles.
The Tigers snapped a three-game SU and an eight-game ATS losing skid with last week’s 27-21 victory at Boston College, cashing as a three-point road underdog for its first win and cover since coach Tommy Bowden resigned on Oct. 13. Clemson rushed for just 87 yards in the victory, but RB C.J. Spiller was a one-man wrecking crew with 55 rushing yards, 105 receiving yards and 64 yards on a kickoff return.
Florida State had its four-game winning streak (3-1 ATS) snapped in last week’s 31-28 loss at Georgia Tech, pushing as a three-point ‘dog. RB Jermaine Thomas rushed for 130 yards against the Yellow Jackets, and the freshman is expected see more time in the backfield today for Bobby Bowden’s squad, which averages 193 rushing yards per game.
The Tigers owned the annual Bowden Bowl matching son Tommy against father Bobby, winning four of the last five SU and ATS, including going 3-0 SU and ATS in the last three dating back to 2003. Last year, Clemson prevailed 24-18 as a 3½-point home underdog, and the last time the Tigers were in Tallahassee they got a 27-20 win as a four-point pup. The home team is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 series clashes and the straight-up winner is 9-1 ATS in those 10.
Clemson is on a bevy of negative ATS trends, including 1-8 overall, 1-5 in ACC games, 0-4 after a straight-up win and 1-6 against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, the Seminoles are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games but just 4-9-2 ATS in their last 15 November contests.
For the Tigers, the under is on streaks of 8-1 overall, 5-1 in conference games, 7-3 after a spread-cover and 6-1 against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, the under is 17-7 in Florida State’s last 24 November outings, but otherwise the ‘Noles are on “over” streaks of 4-1 overall and 10-3 after a straight-up loss. Also, the over is 5-2 in the last seven head-to-head meetings in this rivalry and 4-0 in the last four clashes at Florida State.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
(6) Oklahoma (8-1, 6-2 ATS) at Texas A&M (4-5 SU and ATS)
Oklahoma and its high-octane offense invade College Station for a Big 12 North clash with the suddenly surging Aggies.
The Sooners throttled Nebraska 62-28 as a 21-point home favorite last week, and since a 45-35 loss to Texas, Bob Stoops’ squad has put up 45, 58 and 62 points, with 128 of those 165 points being scored in the first half. Against the Huskers, Oklahoma led 35-0 after the first quarter, finished with a 508-418 edge in total offense and forced four turnovers, while QB Sam Bradford (19-for-27, 311 yards, 5 TDs, 1 INT) had another outstanding day.
Texas A&M began the Big 12 season with three straight double-digit losses but has bounced back the last two weeks with victories over Iowa State (49-35 on the road) and Colorado (24-17 at home). The Aggies have also followed up an 0-4 ATS slump with three straight spread-covers despite getting outgained in all three contests.
Oklahoma has won four straight meetings in this rivalry, but is just 1-3 ATS, with the lone spread-cover coming in last year’s 42-14 rout as a 21-point home chalk. Going back to 1998, the Sooners have made five trips to College Station, going 3-2 SU, but 0-5 ATS, with the three victories coming by a total of 12 points, the latter being a 17-16 victory in 2006. In fact, the host is 9-1 ATS in this rivalry going back to ’98, and OU has failed to cover in seven straight trips to Kyle Field.
The Sooners are on ATS runs of 6-2 overall, 4-0 on the road, 5-2 in Big 12 action, and 5-2 in November, and they’re 3-0 ATS as favorite of 20 points or more this season. Meanwhile, A&M is on pointspread tears 6-2-1 as a home underdog in Big 12 play, 6-1 against ranked teams at home, 7-1-1 ATS November and 5-2 in league contests, but the Aggies are in ATS skids of 2-5 at home and 1-7 after a SU victory.
For Oklahoma, the over is on runs of 5-0 overall (all in conference) and 4-1 when playing on grass, but the under is 9-4 in its last 13 road contests. For Texas A&M, the over streaks include 4-1 overall, 6-1 in conference and 13-6-2 in November. Finally, in this rivalry, the over is on runs of 4-1-1 overall and 3-1-1 in College Station.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS A&M and OVER
Kansas (6-3, 5-3 ATS) at Nebraska (5-4, 4-5 ATS)
Two teams looking to keep their Big 12 North title hopes alive clash at Memorial Stadium, as the Huskers host Kansas, which hasn’t won in Lincoln in 40 years.
Nebraska went to Oklahoma last week and got squashed 62-28 as a 21-point road underdog, snapping a two-game SU winning streak. Although the Cornhuskers finished with 418 total yards, they were never in the game as they trailed 35-0 after one quarter and committed four turnovers. Bo Pellini’s squad, which is 2-4 ATS in its last six games, has put up at least 28 points in eight of its nine games.
The Jayhawks rebounded from a humiliating 63-21 home loss to Texas Tech with last week’s 52-21 thrashing of archrival Kansas State, easily cashing as an eight-point home chalk. Kansas, which jumped out to a 31-0 halftime lead, piled up 469 total yards (280 rushing) and the defense held K-State to 355 yards while forcing five turnovers.
Kansas obliterated the Huskers exactly a year ago, rolling to a 76-39 victory as a 19-point favorite. The Jayhawks, who have taken two of the last three meetings after losing 36 in a row to Nebraska, have cashed in each of the last four series clashes, all of which were won by the home team. Finally, six of the last eight series battles were double-digit blowouts.
Kansas sports ATS streaks of 20-6 overall, 14-4 in conference, 7-1 on the road, 4-1 in November and 5-1 against winning teams, but the Jayhawks are 4-20 ATS in their last 24 November road games. On the flip side, Nebraska is stuck in pointspread funks of 6-14 overall, 4-9 at Memorial Stadium, 4-10 in Big 12 play and 4-9 after a non-cover.
The over is on runs of 5-1 for Kansas overall, 4-1 for Kansas on the road, 4-1 for Kansas in Big 12 play, 9-2 for Kansas in November, 16-7 for Nebraska at home and 30-7 for Nebraska in November contests. Lastly, each of the last three meetings between these schools have topped the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: KANSAS and OVER
(3) Penn State (9-0, 6-1-1 ATS) at Iowa (5-4, 4-3-1 ATS)
Penn State resumes its national championship chase when it heads to Iowa, where it hasn’t won since 1999, for a Big Ten battle against the Hawkeyes.
The Nittany Lions took last week off after rallying for a 13-6 victory at Ohio State as a two-point road chalk. Penn State won despite being held to a season-low in points, as the defense carried the day, giving up just 287 total yards (61 rushing) and forcing a critical fourth-quarter turnover that led to the game-winning touchdown. Joe Paterno’s squad has won 10 straight games (7-1-1 ATS) dating to last year’s bowl victory over Alabama.
Iowa’s two-game SU winning streak and three-game ATS run ended in heartbreaking fashion last week, as it allowed Illinois to kick a game-winning, 46-yard field goal with 24 seconds remaining to fall 27-24, coming up short as a 2½-point road underdog. The Hawkeyes are 4-1 at home this year (2-2 ATS in lined games).
Penn State ended a five-game losing streak to Iowa last year, rolling to a 27-7 home victory as a 10-point chalk. Still, the Hawkeyes are 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings (5-1 ATS as an underdog), and the pup is also 6-2 ATS in the last eight.
The Nittany Lions are 4-0-1 ATS on the highway and 4-1 ATS on grass during their current 10-game SU winning streak. Meanwhile, the Hawkeyes are 36-16 ATS in their last 52 home contests, 6-3-1 ATS in their last 10 as a pup and 4-1 ATS in their last five on grass, but they’ve now failed to cash in six of their last seven November contests.
Despite producing just one touchdown and 281 total yards against Ohio State, the Nittany Lions are still putting up 41.8 ppg and 459.8 total ypg (226.3 rushing ypg) while the defense is yielding just 11.1 points and 266 total ypg, figures that rank fourth and sixth in the nation, respectively. As for the Hawkeyes, they’re averaging 29 points and 379.6 total yards per outing (189.4 rushing ypg), and the stout defense is limiting foes to 13.2 points and 301.6 total yards per outing.
The under is on streaks of 6-2 for Penn State in November, 15-5-1 for Iowa overall, 7-3-1 for Iowa in Big Ten action and 13-5 for Iowa on grass. Finally, the past two series meetings in this rivalry have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: IOWA and UNDER
Cincinnati (6-2, 3-4 ATS) at (20) West Virginia (6-2, 3-4 ATS)
Two of the top three teams in the Big East get together in Morgantown, where West Virginia looks to extend a five-game winning steak with a victory over visiting Cincinnati.
The Mountaineers went into the locker room at UConn last Saturday trailing 13-7 at halftime, then came out and scored the game’s final 28 points, finishing with 35-13 victory as a 3½-point road favorite. QB Pat White accounted for 230 of West Virginia’s 337 total yards (121 passing, 109 rushing) and had three total TDs (two rushing, one passing), while the Mountaineer defense gave up only 285 yards while notching five turnovers.
Cincinnati knocked South Florida out of the Top 25 with last Thursday’s impressive 24-10 victory as a 2½-point home underdog, the third time in the last four games that the Bearcats held an opponent to exactly 10 points. Going back to the middle of 2005, Cincinnati is on a 23-7 SU run and an 18-9-2 ATS streak
The Mountaineers lead the Big East (3-0, 1-2 ATS), while Cincinnati (2-1, 1-2 ATS) is tied with Pitt for second place.
West Virginia has owned this rivalry, winning eight of nine meetings going back to 1987, including the last three in a row. In 2007, the Mountaineers went to Cincinnati and jumped out to a 28-10 lead before holding on for a 28-23 victory but coming up just short as a 5½-point road chalk. The ‘dog and the road team are both 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
The Bearcats are on ATS runs of 8-3-1 as an underdog since 2006, 4-1-1 in November and 11-4-1 against winning teams, but they’re 1-5 ATS in their last six after a SU victory. Meanwhile, West Virginia has followed up a 1-4 ATS slump with consecutive spread-covers for the first time since last year. However, the Mounties are still 2-5 ATS in their last seven Big East affairs.
The over is 8-3-1 in Cincy’s last 12 road games, 6-2 in its last eight in November and 15-4 in West Virginia’s last 19 in November. Otherwise, the under is on streaks of 4-1 for the Bearcats overall, 4-0 for the Bearcats on artificial turf, 5-2 for West Virginia overall, 4-1 for West Virginia at home and 3-1 in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
(21) Cal (6-2 SU and ATS) at (7) USC (7-1, 5-2 ATS)
USC figures to face its stiffest challenge since suffering its only loss of the season at Oregon State when it welcomes 21st-ranked Cal to the L.A. Coliseum for a battle between Pac-10 rivals.
The Trojans had their way with winless Washington last week, jumping out to a 42-0 halftime lead en route to a 56-0 victory as a 45-point home chalk. It was the third shutout in the last four games for USC, which has allowed 10 points or fewer in all seven of its victories. The Trojans lead the nation in scoring defense (7.1 ppg), total defense (211.6 ypg) and passing defense (127.5 passing ypg) and they rank fifth in rushing defense (84.1 ypg).
USC has won five in a row (3-2 ATS) since its stunning 27-21 loss at Oregon State as a 24-point road chalk, but has alternated spread-covers in its last seven outings. Also, Pete Carroll’s squad is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS at home, outscoring its visitors by an aggregate margin of 163-13, giving up just one touchdown.
Cal fought off a steady downpour and took care of Oregon 26-16 as a 2½-point home favorite last week for its second straight win and cover. The Bears finished with a 348-290 edge in total offense and overcame five turnovers (four fumbles) to secure the win. Cal has outgained nine of its last 10 opponents going back to last season.
The Trojans traveled north last year and beat Cal 24-17 as a four-point road chalk. USC has won four in a row in this series and covered the spread in the last three. However, prior to that, the Bears were on a 6-1 ATS roll in this rivalry, and they’re 5-1 ATS in their last six trips to the Coliseum (all as an underdog). In fact, the visitor is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 head-to-head tussles.
Cal is 4-1 ATS in its last five outings (all in Pac-10 play), but they’re still mired in pointspread slumps of 2-9 on the highway, 1-5 as an underdog dating to 2005, 1-6 in November and 3-14 on grass. Conversely, USC sports positive ATS trends of 9-4 overall, 4-1 at home, 21-5 in November and 8-3 on grass.
The under is 4-0 the last four years in this rivalry. Additionally, the under is on runs of 19-7-1 for USC overall, 14-3-1 for USC at home, 21-6-1 for USC in Pac-10 games and 5-1 for Cal in November. However, the Bears have topped the total in four of their last five on the highway.
ATS ADVANTAGE: USC and UNDER
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Jimmy The Moose
Pittsburgh Penguins at New York Islanders
Prediction: Pittsburgh Penguins
Pittsburgh has started to play a lot better and have won their last 2 games. The Penguins are 15-5 in their last 20 games vs. a team with a losing record. In their last 26 games vs. Atlantic Division opponents the Penguins are 18-8. The Islanders are 7-20 in their last 27 home games as well as their last 27 games overall. In their last 46 games vs. a team with a winning record the Penguins are 15-31. Pittsburgh has won 5 of the last 7 meetings between the clubs and will take another one tonight. Play on the Pittsburgh Penguins -.
Pittsburgh Penguins at New York Islanders
Prediction: Pittsburgh Penguins
Pittsburgh has started to play a lot better and have won their last 2 games. The Penguins are 15-5 in their last 20 games vs. a team with a losing record. In their last 26 games vs. Atlantic Division opponents the Penguins are 18-8. The Islanders are 7-20 in their last 27 home games as well as their last 27 games overall. In their last 46 games vs. a team with a winning record the Penguins are 15-31. Pittsburgh has won 5 of the last 7 meetings between the clubs and will take another one tonight. Play on the Pittsburgh Penguins -.
Tom Freese
Notre Dame at Boston College
Boston College is in a 84-44 ATS System that says Play On home teams that failed to cover ATS in three of their last four games vs. an opponent who covered ATS in four of their last five games. The Eagles are 6-0 ATS at home off a home game. Notre Dame is in a 38-14 ATS Play Against System that says to go against any team off a home game where both teams scored 31 or more points if they have six or more starters returning than does their opponent. The Irish are 5-16 ATS after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7 games. PLAY ON BOSTON COLLEGE -
Notre Dame at Boston College
Boston College is in a 84-44 ATS System that says Play On home teams that failed to cover ATS in three of their last four games vs. an opponent who covered ATS in four of their last five games. The Eagles are 6-0 ATS at home off a home game. Notre Dame is in a 38-14 ATS Play Against System that says to go against any team off a home game where both teams scored 31 or more points if they have six or more starters returning than does their opponent. The Irish are 5-16 ATS after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7 games. PLAY ON BOSTON COLLEGE -
Wild Bill
College Game of YEAR: Nebraska +1 1/2 (10 units)
Texas Tech -3 (5 units)
Bowling Green -2 1/2 (5 units)
Boise -32 (5 units)
Rice -9 1/2 (5 units)
Florida St -6 1/2 (5 units)
Penn St -7 (5 units)
LSU +3 1/2 (5 units)
Washington +14 1/2 (5 units)
UCLA +7 1/2 (5 units)
L'ville +6 1/2 (5 units)
Texas -26 (5 units)
USC -18 1/2 (5 units)
Arkansas St -3 1/2 (5 units)
Middle Tenn -4 (5 units)
College Game of YEAR: Nebraska +1 1/2 (10 units)
Texas Tech -3 (5 units)
Bowling Green -2 1/2 (5 units)
Boise -32 (5 units)
Rice -9 1/2 (5 units)
Florida St -6 1/2 (5 units)
Penn St -7 (5 units)
LSU +3 1/2 (5 units)
Washington +14 1/2 (5 units)
UCLA +7 1/2 (5 units)
L'ville +6 1/2 (5 units)
Texas -26 (5 units)
USC -18 1/2 (5 units)
Arkansas St -3 1/2 (5 units)
Middle Tenn -4 (5 units)
Bill Bravenec
Week 11 College Football Picks
November 6th, 2008
Saturday, November 8
Air Force - 10 vs. Colorado State
This pick is based on Air Force’s better defense and a mismatch between Air Force’s rushing offense and Colorado State’s rushing defense. Air Force’s defense allows 298 yards (#22) and 17.3 points (#17) per game, while Colorado State’s defense allows 409 yards (#99) and 32.7 points (#106) per game. Air Force rushes for 274 yards (#4) per game and 4.3 yards per carry, and Colorado State’s defense allows 181 rushing yards (#95) per game and 5.3 yards per carry. Air Force should be able to run all day. Colorado State’s strength is their passing game (#30), but Air Force is #6 against the pass, allowing only 158 passing yards per game and 5.9 yards per pass attempt.
Minnesota - 8 vs. Michigan
This pick is based on Minnesota’s better defense and a mismatch between Minnesota’s passing offense and Michigan’s passing defense. Minnesota’s defense allows 363 yards (#65) but only 17.9 points (#20) per game, while Michigan’s defense allows 394 yards (#91) and 30.9 points (#97) per game. Minnesota passes for 240 yards (#36) per game and 7.3 yards per attempt, and Michigan’s defense allows 253 passing yards (#102) per game and 7.5 yards per pass attempt. Minnesota has a +15 turnover margin and Michigan has a -9 turnover margin.
New Mexico - 3 1/2 at UNLV
This pick is based on New Mexico’s better defense and a mismatch between New Mexico’s rushing offense and UNLV’s rushing defense. New Mexico’s defense allows 334 yards (#42) and 22.6 points (#49) per game, while UNLV’s defense allows 437 yards (#108) and 35.0 points (#110) per game. New Mexico rushes for 212 yards (#15) per game and 5.4 yards per carry, and UNLV’s defense allows 232 rushing yards (#116) per game and 5.2 yards per carry. Like Air Force, New Mexico should be able to run the ball at will. UNLV’s QB Omar Clayton, who is also the team’s 2nd leading rusher, is out with an injury so they will play sophomore Mike Clausen, who is only 11-of-21 for 110 yards with 0 TD’s and 0 INT’s. Clausen does have 2 rushing TDs but only has -6 rushing yards in 17 attempts.
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Week 11 College Football Picks
November 6th, 2008
Saturday, November 8
Air Force - 10 vs. Colorado State
This pick is based on Air Force’s better defense and a mismatch between Air Force’s rushing offense and Colorado State’s rushing defense. Air Force’s defense allows 298 yards (#22) and 17.3 points (#17) per game, while Colorado State’s defense allows 409 yards (#99) and 32.7 points (#106) per game. Air Force rushes for 274 yards (#4) per game and 4.3 yards per carry, and Colorado State’s defense allows 181 rushing yards (#95) per game and 5.3 yards per carry. Air Force should be able to run all day. Colorado State’s strength is their passing game (#30), but Air Force is #6 against the pass, allowing only 158 passing yards per game and 5.9 yards per pass attempt.
Minnesota - 8 vs. Michigan
This pick is based on Minnesota’s better defense and a mismatch between Minnesota’s passing offense and Michigan’s passing defense. Minnesota’s defense allows 363 yards (#65) but only 17.9 points (#20) per game, while Michigan’s defense allows 394 yards (#91) and 30.9 points (#97) per game. Minnesota passes for 240 yards (#36) per game and 7.3 yards per attempt, and Michigan’s defense allows 253 passing yards (#102) per game and 7.5 yards per pass attempt. Minnesota has a +15 turnover margin and Michigan has a -9 turnover margin.
New Mexico - 3 1/2 at UNLV
This pick is based on New Mexico’s better defense and a mismatch between New Mexico’s rushing offense and UNLV’s rushing defense. New Mexico’s defense allows 334 yards (#42) and 22.6 points (#49) per game, while UNLV’s defense allows 437 yards (#108) and 35.0 points (#110) per game. New Mexico rushes for 212 yards (#15) per game and 5.4 yards per carry, and UNLV’s defense allows 232 rushing yards (#116) per game and 5.2 yards per carry. Like Air Force, New Mexico should be able to run the ball at will. UNLV’s QB Omar Clayton, who is also the team’s 2nd leading rusher, is out with an injury so they will play sophomore Mike Clausen, who is only 11-of-21 for 110 yards with 0 TD’s and 0 INT’s. Clausen does have 2 rushing TDs but only has -6 rushing yards in 17 attempts.
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PICKENS PICK
NCAA FOOTBALL Big Ten Basher
150 unit- At 12:05pm our pick is on the Ohio State Buckeyes to annihilate Northwestern. We called it out a few weeks ago that Terrell Pryor just wasn’t ready to take down a very solid Penn State team in his freshman year…and in fact he coughed up the ball that lead to the winning drive after playing a solid game. Simply put Ohio State is going to rock this team and take out every can of you know what that is possible on Northwestern. Bottom line Ohio State is a much better squad and in all honesty they were playing fantastic football (when compared to earlier in the season) coming into the PSU game. Northwestern is not PSU on defense and look for Ohio State’s bottled up offense to be the difference maker. With Northwestern off a big win last week against Minnesota and OSU’s bitter loss and their week off to prepare for this game- I’d be willing to lay 17. Enjoy taking the easy money to the bank.
Play on Ohio State -11
50 unit- At 2:05pm our selection is on Boise State over Utah State. With hopes of another BCS bowl bid hung before the eyes of the Broncos they won’t let any opportunity pass to run up a big margin here. Boise State failed to cover in their last home game against Hawaii and they’ll bounce back with a blowout win.
Play on Boise State -35
200 unit- At 1:00pm our selection is on the Tennessee Vols over Wyoming. Well it just wasn’t meant to be for coach Fulmer. In a conference as competitive as the SEC it is truly win or go home and what have you done for me lately. Well Picken’s expects Tennessee to come out and lay a whooping on Wyoming that is illegal in 20 plus states. The Vols will play hard for their coach this game and after 2 straight beatings Tennessee has seen at the hands of South Carolina and Alabama, this Wyoming team will appear to be a slightly glorified high school squad. I’d lay 35 in this game in a second.
Play on Tennessee -27
Saturday Night Smasher
400 unit- At 8:00pm our selection is on the Houston Cougars over Tulane. Folks, Houston should have a field day passing all over this team. Case Keenum is the real deal and I think we’ll wind up seeing this kid play on Sundays. As a sophomore this year he has QB ratings through the roof combined with over 3,000 yards passing and 25 tds. To only 8 picks. It’s hard to play any better. He may throw for 400 yards this game against a Tulane team that is just injury depleted and dreadful- 4 straight losses including a blowout loss to ARMY? The same Army team that got crushed by Akron and Temple? Yes the same. This game is over before the first snap is taken. The last time Tulane took Houston down was in 2002 and they won’t do it this year. Enjoy the easy easy cash.
Play on Houston -16
PickensPicks plays
15 unit- Nebraska -1.5
15 unit- Rutgers -14
10 unit- Oklahoma State +3.5
10 unit- Kansas St +27
10 unit- USC -22.5
25 unit- NC State +3.5
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NCAA FOOTBALL Big Ten Basher
150 unit- At 12:05pm our pick is on the Ohio State Buckeyes to annihilate Northwestern. We called it out a few weeks ago that Terrell Pryor just wasn’t ready to take down a very solid Penn State team in his freshman year…and in fact he coughed up the ball that lead to the winning drive after playing a solid game. Simply put Ohio State is going to rock this team and take out every can of you know what that is possible on Northwestern. Bottom line Ohio State is a much better squad and in all honesty they were playing fantastic football (when compared to earlier in the season) coming into the PSU game. Northwestern is not PSU on defense and look for Ohio State’s bottled up offense to be the difference maker. With Northwestern off a big win last week against Minnesota and OSU’s bitter loss and their week off to prepare for this game- I’d be willing to lay 17. Enjoy taking the easy money to the bank.
Play on Ohio State -11
50 unit- At 2:05pm our selection is on Boise State over Utah State. With hopes of another BCS bowl bid hung before the eyes of the Broncos they won’t let any opportunity pass to run up a big margin here. Boise State failed to cover in their last home game against Hawaii and they’ll bounce back with a blowout win.
Play on Boise State -35
200 unit- At 1:00pm our selection is on the Tennessee Vols over Wyoming. Well it just wasn’t meant to be for coach Fulmer. In a conference as competitive as the SEC it is truly win or go home and what have you done for me lately. Well Picken’s expects Tennessee to come out and lay a whooping on Wyoming that is illegal in 20 plus states. The Vols will play hard for their coach this game and after 2 straight beatings Tennessee has seen at the hands of South Carolina and Alabama, this Wyoming team will appear to be a slightly glorified high school squad. I’d lay 35 in this game in a second.
Play on Tennessee -27
Saturday Night Smasher
400 unit- At 8:00pm our selection is on the Houston Cougars over Tulane. Folks, Houston should have a field day passing all over this team. Case Keenum is the real deal and I think we’ll wind up seeing this kid play on Sundays. As a sophomore this year he has QB ratings through the roof combined with over 3,000 yards passing and 25 tds. To only 8 picks. It’s hard to play any better. He may throw for 400 yards this game against a Tulane team that is just injury depleted and dreadful- 4 straight losses including a blowout loss to ARMY? The same Army team that got crushed by Akron and Temple? Yes the same. This game is over before the first snap is taken. The last time Tulane took Houston down was in 2002 and they won’t do it this year. Enjoy the easy easy cash.
Play on Houston -16
PickensPicks plays
15 unit- Nebraska -1.5
15 unit- Rutgers -14
10 unit- Oklahoma State +3.5
10 unit- Kansas St +27
10 unit- USC -22.5
25 unit- NC State +3.5
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15 UnitsOregon State/UCLA Points
6:07 PM -- Rose Bowl
Oregon State by 17-21
TV: FSN Comments: For openers Oregon State is a dramatically superior football team and has so much more quickness and speed that this game could end up being a blowout. Oregon State (5-3) is young and somewhat inexperienced but one would never know it by watching the Beavers play. They have an explosive offense and a lockdown defense and it must be noted that two of its three losses this season came at Penn State (9-0) 45-14 and at Utah (10-0), 31-28. The figures say there is no way UCLA can keep it close.
5 UnitsOhio State(-11) over Northwestern
12:00 PM -- Ryan Field
Ohio State by 17-20
TV: ESPN2 Comments: It may well turn out to be a snowing day in Evanston but I don’t think it will have much impact on Ohio State, a 7-2 team coming off a bye week and a 13-6 loss to Penn State. Count on the Buckeyes being in a comeback mode and dominating a Northwestern (7-2) team that has injuries to several key people on offense. Of note is the fact OSU has won the last three games 56-7, 54-10 and 48-7.
Mostly cloudy with a 50-percent chance of rain. Winds blowing from the West at 15-25 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 40.
4 UnitsArkansas/So Carolina Points
1:00 PM -- Williams-Brice Stadium
South Carolina by 3-4
TV: Pay Per View Comments: Arkansas (4-5) is one of the most improved teams in college football and stands a very impressive 2-2 in its last 4 games, with the two wins coming over Auburn and previously unbeaten Tulsa and the losses coming by 2 points to Mississippi and by 1 point to Kentucky. The charts say the Razorbacks are ready to fire their best shot and that should keep them in this one all the way. South Carolina (6-3) has a decent defense but is an unimpressive football team.
Partly cloudy. Winds blowing from the West at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 75.
3 UnitsOklahoma State/Texas Tech Points
8:00 PM -- Jones AT&T Stadium
Oklahoma State by 3-4
TV: ABC Comments: Texas Tech (9-0) is in a very tough spot in this Big 12 showdown. The Red Raiders come into this off a very draining last-second 39-33 win over previous number one ranked and undefeated Texas, and there is no way they can be ready to play at the 100% level. Oklahoma State (8-1) is every bit as good as Texas and is even quicker and with a betting running game. The only loss OSU has had this season was a 28-24 decision in Austin to Texas and my figures say they pull he ambush in Lubbock and get the outright win.
Clear. Winds blowing from the Southwest at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 65.<!-- / message -->
Johnny Guild
Saturday November 8th, 2008
(8) Oklahoma State Cowboys (8-1) at (2) Texas Tech Red Raiders (9-0)
Oklahoma State Cowboys (8-1, 4-1), has lost 11 straight in Lubbock and is, 2-11-3 all-time with the last win coming in 1944. The Cowboys are playing on the road against a team ranked in the top 3 for the third time in five weeks, going 1-1 against the AP top five this season. Texas Tech Red Raiders (9-0, 5-0), beat then-No.19 Kansas 63-21 on October 25 and top-ranked Texas 39-33 last week.
Without doubt, this will be a great game and almost certainly a high scoring shootout with a close finish. The last three clashes have been decided by seven points or less. Look for Heisman hopeful Graham Harrell and crew to seize a close victory in Lubbock. Texas Tech is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games against Oklahoma State at home.
Selections
Michigan State Spartans -9.5
Nebraska Cornhuskers -1.5
Florida Gators -24
Texas Tech Red Raiders -3.5
Oklahoma State (8-1) Texas Tech (9-0)Over -69
Saturday November 8th, 2008
(8) Oklahoma State Cowboys (8-1) at (2) Texas Tech Red Raiders (9-0)
Oklahoma State Cowboys (8-1, 4-1), has lost 11 straight in Lubbock and is, 2-11-3 all-time with the last win coming in 1944. The Cowboys are playing on the road against a team ranked in the top 3 for the third time in five weeks, going 1-1 against the AP top five this season. Texas Tech Red Raiders (9-0, 5-0), beat then-No.19 Kansas 63-21 on October 25 and top-ranked Texas 39-33 last week.
Without doubt, this will be a great game and almost certainly a high scoring shootout with a close finish. The last three clashes have been decided by seven points or less. Look for Heisman hopeful Graham Harrell and crew to seize a close victory in Lubbock. Texas Tech is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games against Oklahoma State at home.
Selections
Michigan State Spartans -9.5
Nebraska Cornhuskers -1.5
Florida Gators -24
Texas Tech Red Raiders -3.5
Oklahoma State (8-1) Texas Tech (9-0)Over -69
CKO CONFIDENTIAL KICK-OFF
PRIORITY PICKS and PREFERENCES
CKO Vol. 47 NOV. 6 - 10, 2008 No. 11
CKO CHOICE IN CAPITALS
* - Denotes Home Team
RATINGS: 11 - Exceptional, 10 - Strong, 9 - Above Average
11 N.C. STATE over *Duke
Late Score Forecast:
N.C. STATE 27 - *Duke 20
Acknowledge Duke’s dramatic improvement, a direct result of HC David Cutcliffe’s arrival. But Blue Devils not
accustomed to “wearing a target” as chalk, as they must for Tobacco Road battle vs. nearby NC State. ACC sources
believe 2nd-year HC Tom O’Brien has Wolfpack on the right track now that RS frosh QB Russell Wilson (accounted
for 10 TDs last 4 games) has emerged as a dangerous playmaker. Wilson’s contributions also making NCS a “tough
out” lately, as five covers in last six games (and taking BC, Florida State, and Maryland to the wire in last 3) would
indicate. And likely return of impact LB Nate Irving from ankle injury could give young, speedy Wolfpack “D” the
necessary playmaker to disrupt Duke “O” that coughed up the ball 4 times in the Devils’ OT loss at Wake.
10 *TENNESSEE over Wyoming
Late Score Forecast:
*TENNESSEE 37 - Wyoming 0
Despite sporting identical 3-6 straight-up records, there is a wide gulf between these two teams. Tennessee owns
the 11th-ranked defense in the country and has had to face four SEC teams ranked in the top ten. Wyoming’s
schedule has featured just one team ranked in the top 25, which resulted in a 44-0 loss to BYU. Wyoming snapped
an 0-15-1 pointspread run with a win against San Diego State last week, but lightning won’t strike twice. The
Cowboys managed to handle the injury-depleted Aztecs in the altitude at Laramie, but they’ll be lucky to merely score
in Knoxville this week. Wyoming is 119th (last) in scoring (11.7 ppg) & passing efficiency, and 118th in TO margin.
The Vols can finally give the soon-to-be-out Phillip Fulmer a big, fat satisfying win.
10 CINCINNATI over *West Virginia
Late Score Forecast:
CINCINNATI 27 - *West Virginia 26
Respected Big East scouts urge us to take generous number with healthy contender Cincy, which has inserted a
few gadget plays devised by wiley 2nd-year HC Brian Kelly for critical showdown in Morgantown. Scouts say
gutsy 6-6 QB Pike (wearing a protective cast) has inspired his mates by so quickly returning from painful wrist injury
that forced him to miss 2nd H of UConn loss. And now that Bearcats versatile 6-0, 208 soph RB Goebel (78 YR, 3
catches for 43 yds. vs. USF) had coming out party, productive Pike (62%, 9 TDs, 3 ints.) has dump-off receiver to
complement marvelous wide-outs Goodman (48 grabs, 5 TDs) & Gilyard (43, 7). WV defense hasn’t faced such a
nicely-balanced attack in ‘08. After impressively containing Bulls tough-running QB Grothe, Bearcats speedy,
veteran stop unit (15 pts. or fewer in 4 of last 5) is well-prepared for Mounties fleet-footed QB P. White, who’ll
complete precious few vertical passes vs. ball-hawking CBs Mickens (14 career ints.) & A. Smith. Plus, triplerevenge
minded Cincy is an eye-popping 9-1-1 last 12 as an underdog. Upset possible.
10 *LA.-LAFAYETTE over Utep
Late Score Forecast:
*LA.-LAFAYETTE 45 - Utep 24
Not many people outside of Cajun country are fully appreciative of Louisiana-Lafayette’s ground-gobbling offense,
which is third in the nation behind only Navy and Nevada. Deceptive lefty QB Michael Desormeaux (752 YR) is
among the best running QBs in the country, and he’s a much improved passer TY, hitting 63% with 8 TDs vs. 5
interceptions. 5-10, 205 sr. RB Tyrell Fenroy (1051 YR) has already reached the 1,000-mark for the fourth straight
year. And the defense has overcome early injuries to play with spirit, helping the Ragin’ Cajuns generate seven
straight covers, five of them as a favorite! While UTEP’s offense deserves respect, can’t say the same for the beatup
Miner defense that’s given up 126 points in just the last two weeks!
PRIORITY PICKS and PREFERENCES
CKO Vol. 47 NOV. 6 - 10, 2008 No. 11
CKO CHOICE IN CAPITALS
* - Denotes Home Team
RATINGS: 11 - Exceptional, 10 - Strong, 9 - Above Average
11 N.C. STATE over *Duke
Late Score Forecast:
N.C. STATE 27 - *Duke 20
Acknowledge Duke’s dramatic improvement, a direct result of HC David Cutcliffe’s arrival. But Blue Devils not
accustomed to “wearing a target” as chalk, as they must for Tobacco Road battle vs. nearby NC State. ACC sources
believe 2nd-year HC Tom O’Brien has Wolfpack on the right track now that RS frosh QB Russell Wilson (accounted
for 10 TDs last 4 games) has emerged as a dangerous playmaker. Wilson’s contributions also making NCS a “tough
out” lately, as five covers in last six games (and taking BC, Florida State, and Maryland to the wire in last 3) would
indicate. And likely return of impact LB Nate Irving from ankle injury could give young, speedy Wolfpack “D” the
necessary playmaker to disrupt Duke “O” that coughed up the ball 4 times in the Devils’ OT loss at Wake.
10 *TENNESSEE over Wyoming
Late Score Forecast:
*TENNESSEE 37 - Wyoming 0
Despite sporting identical 3-6 straight-up records, there is a wide gulf between these two teams. Tennessee owns
the 11th-ranked defense in the country and has had to face four SEC teams ranked in the top ten. Wyoming’s
schedule has featured just one team ranked in the top 25, which resulted in a 44-0 loss to BYU. Wyoming snapped
an 0-15-1 pointspread run with a win against San Diego State last week, but lightning won’t strike twice. The
Cowboys managed to handle the injury-depleted Aztecs in the altitude at Laramie, but they’ll be lucky to merely score
in Knoxville this week. Wyoming is 119th (last) in scoring (11.7 ppg) & passing efficiency, and 118th in TO margin.
The Vols can finally give the soon-to-be-out Phillip Fulmer a big, fat satisfying win.
10 CINCINNATI over *West Virginia
Late Score Forecast:
CINCINNATI 27 - *West Virginia 26
Respected Big East scouts urge us to take generous number with healthy contender Cincy, which has inserted a
few gadget plays devised by wiley 2nd-year HC Brian Kelly for critical showdown in Morgantown. Scouts say
gutsy 6-6 QB Pike (wearing a protective cast) has inspired his mates by so quickly returning from painful wrist injury
that forced him to miss 2nd H of UConn loss. And now that Bearcats versatile 6-0, 208 soph RB Goebel (78 YR, 3
catches for 43 yds. vs. USF) had coming out party, productive Pike (62%, 9 TDs, 3 ints.) has dump-off receiver to
complement marvelous wide-outs Goodman (48 grabs, 5 TDs) & Gilyard (43, 7). WV defense hasn’t faced such a
nicely-balanced attack in ‘08. After impressively containing Bulls tough-running QB Grothe, Bearcats speedy,
veteran stop unit (15 pts. or fewer in 4 of last 5) is well-prepared for Mounties fleet-footed QB P. White, who’ll
complete precious few vertical passes vs. ball-hawking CBs Mickens (14 career ints.) & A. Smith. Plus, triplerevenge
minded Cincy is an eye-popping 9-1-1 last 12 as an underdog. Upset possible.
10 *LA.-LAFAYETTE over Utep
Late Score Forecast:
*LA.-LAFAYETTE 45 - Utep 24
Not many people outside of Cajun country are fully appreciative of Louisiana-Lafayette’s ground-gobbling offense,
which is third in the nation behind only Navy and Nevada. Deceptive lefty QB Michael Desormeaux (752 YR) is
among the best running QBs in the country, and he’s a much improved passer TY, hitting 63% with 8 TDs vs. 5
interceptions. 5-10, 205 sr. RB Tyrell Fenroy (1051 YR) has already reached the 1,000-mark for the fourth straight
year. And the defense has overcome early injuries to play with spirit, helping the Ragin’ Cajuns generate seven
straight covers, five of them as a favorite! While UTEP’s offense deserves respect, can’t say the same for the beatup
Miner defense that’s given up 126 points in just the last two weeks!
DCI
NHL
Buffalo vs. BOSTON: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Montreal vs. TORONTO: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Pittsburgh 3, N.Y. ISLANDERS 2
PHILADELPHIA 4, Tampa Bay 3
N.Y. Rangers vs. WASHINGTON: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
DETROIT 3, New Jersey 2
Calgary 3, COLUMBUS 2
COLORADO 3, Nashville 2
PHOENIX 3, Florida 2
VANCOUVER 3, Minnesota 2
SAN JOSE 3, Dallas 2
St. Louis vs. LOS ANGELES: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
NHL
Buffalo vs. BOSTON: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Montreal vs. TORONTO: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Pittsburgh 3, N.Y. ISLANDERS 2
PHILADELPHIA 4, Tampa Bay 3
N.Y. Rangers vs. WASHINGTON: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
DETROIT 3, New Jersey 2
Calgary 3, COLUMBUS 2
COLORADO 3, Nashville 2
PHOENIX 3, Florida 2
VANCOUVER 3, Minnesota 2
SAN JOSE 3, Dallas 2
St. Louis vs. LOS ANGELES: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
