Serie A (11-Nov-2006) – 4 Really mad plays.

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Twisted - but gifted - Serie A analyst
Joined
Sep 26, 2006
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1,383
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For those of you looking for bailout plays, you’ve come to the wrong thread. On the other hand, for those with healthy profits for the week(s), like myself, let me explain how to<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p>
Properly lose 3 units:<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
Atalanta at FIORENTINA<o:p></o:p>
The 1-X-2 line shows: Ata +500 / Fio -150 / Draw +235<o:p></o:p>
No matter the talent level on a team, every squad goes through cycles. Great teams have a higher win to losses cycles. Conversely, bad teams go through defensive (goals allowed)<o:p></o:p>
cycles. Porous Defensively Atalanta may be entering a positive phase. Their 2-0 win against <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" /><st1:City><st1:place>Milan</st1:place></st1:City> indicated a change for the better, actually a change to <st1:date Month="4" Day="4" Year="2002">4-4-2</st1:date> is really what made it<o:p></o:p>
happen. Are they a worthy dog? I believe so. I don’t buy Fiorentina – just yet – Luca Toni or not. I know they are a potent animal at home – with most game going over by the half. Yet,<o:p></o:p>
the feel – for me, that is – is not there.<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
1 unit Atalanta +500<o:p></o:p>
1 unit draw +235<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
For those with access to o/u 2.5 goals. The unconventional play is: under 2.5 goals for 2 units.<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
As Roma at AC <st1:City><st1:place>MILAN</st1:place></st1:City><o:p></o:p>
The 1-X-2 line shows: Roma +280 / AC Milan EV / draw +220<o:p></o:p>
Line makers are a sick but talented bunch! The only valid reason for such a set of lines is partly due to AC Milan having lost their last 2 home games (Palermo 2-0 and inter 4-3, a total which<o:p></o:p>
I jumped on for nasty profits). I suspect the line makers supect <st1:City><st1:place>Milan</st1:place></st1:City> will snap out of their home funk. There is a good chance that it will happen; I believe otherwise. Any team that plays vs<o:p></o:p>
Roma must restrict to playing <st1:date Month="4" Day="4" Year="2002">4-4-2</st1:date>. Such respect is born from having to face playmaker Francesco Totti; who waits patiently for the one golden pass opportunity that usually turns into a goal.<o:p></o:p>
Roma will probably go the 4-4-1-1 way, establishing what will probably be a chess match, with substitutions being the key factor in the second half….<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
1.5 units draw +220<o:p></o:p>
1 unit Roma +280<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
For those with access to o/u 2.5 goals. The unconventional play is: under 2.5 goals for 2.5 units. I would go as high as 4.5 units, but the under is going to be expensive at -150.<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
As I said, the above plays are unconventionally dangerous, and not suited for bailouts. Nonetheless they are my plays. If I break even I will be satisfied. If I lose one of the totals, I will most likely lose the 3 units I mentioned. Don’t matter, my one “serious” play, an over/under play goes Sunday.<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
Thread carefully,<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
Cheers and good luck.<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
MA:103631605
 

Twisted - but gifted - Serie A analyst
Joined
Sep 26, 2006
Messages
1,383
Tokens
the mad actuarian said:
For those of you looking for bailout plays, you’ve come to the wrong thread. On the other hand, for those with healthy profits for the week(s), like myself, let me explain how to<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p>
Properly lose 3 units:<o:p></o:p>
<o:p></o:p>
Atalanta at FIORENTINA<o:p></o:p>
The 1-X-2 line shows: Ata +500 / Fio -150 / Draw +235<o:p></o:p>
No matter the talent level on a team, every squad goes through cycles. Great teams have a higher win to losses cycles. Conversely, bad teams go through defensive (goals allowed)<o:p></o:p>
cycles. Porous Defensively Atalanta may be entering a positive phase. Their 2-0 win against <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" /><st1:City><st1:place>Milan</st1:place></st1:City> indicated a change for the better, actually a change to <st1:date Year="2002" Day="4" Month="4">4-4-2</st1:date> is really what made it<o:p></o:p>
happen. Are they a worthy dog? I believe so. I don’t buy Fiorentina – just yet – Luca Toni or not. I know they are a potent animal at home – with most game going over by the half. Yet,<o:p></o:p>
the feel – for me, that is – is not there.<o:p></o:p>
<o:p></o:p>
1 unit Atalanta +500 (Loss 1 unit : FIO 3 ATA 1)
1 unit draw +235 (Loss 1 unit: see above)
<o:p></o:p>
For those with access to o/u 2.5 goals. The unconventional play is: under 2.5 goals for 2 units. (Loss 2.1 units)
<o:p></o:p>
As Roma at AC <st1:City><st1:place>MILAN</st1:place></st1:City><o:p></o:p>
The 1-X-2 line shows: Roma +280 / AC Milan EV / draw +220<o:p></o:p>
Line makers are a sick but talented bunch! The only valid reason for such a set of lines is partly due to AC Milan having lost their last 2 home games (Palermo 2-0 and inter 4-3, a total which<o:p></o:p>
I jumped on for nasty profits). I suspect the line makers supect <st1:City><st1:place>Milan</st1:place></st1:City> will snap out of their home funk. There is a good chance that it will happen; I believe otherwise. Any team that plays vs<o:p></o:p>
Roma must restrict to playing <st1:date Year="2002" Day="4" Month="4">4-4-2</st1:date>. Such respect is born from having to face playmaker Francesco Totti; who waits patiently for the one golden pass opportunity that usually turns into a goal.<o:p></o:p>
Roma will probably go the 4-4-1-1 way, establishing what will probably be a chess match, with substitutions being the key factor in the second half….<o:p></o:p>
<o:p></o:p>
1.5 units draw +220 (Loss 1.5 units: AS ROMA 2 MILAN 1)
1 unit Roma +280 (Won 2.8 units)
<o:p></o:p>
For those with access to o/u 2.5 goals. The unconventional play is: under 2.5 goals for 2.5 units. I would go as high as 4.5 units, but the under is going to be expensive at -150. (Loss 3.5 units)
<o:p></o:p>
As I said, the above plays are unconventionally dangerous, and not suited for bailouts. Nonetheless they are my plays. If I break even I will be satisfied. If I lose one of the totals, I will most likely lose the 3 units I mentioned. Don’t matter, my one “serious” play, an over/under play goes Sunday.<o:p></o:p>
<o:p></o:p>
Thread carefully,<o:p></o:p>
<o:p></o:p>
Cheers and good luck.<o:p></o:p>
<o:p></o:p>
MA:103631605

Cheers
 

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