Fifty years since he was foaled and more than three decades since his death, Secretariat is a 7-2 favorite to reaffirm his greatness via virtual reality.
With the Kentucky Derby’s traditional time slot left vacant because of a coronavirus-caused postponement, NBC will be filling part of its programming void Saturday around 5:45 p.m. with a computer-generated fantasy race matching the 13 horses to win the Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes: the Triple Crown Showdown.
Though all three of Secretariat’s 1973 Triple Crown races remain the fastest ever run, Churchill Downs oddsmaker Mike Battaglia gave him only a narrow nod over 1948 winner Citation (4-1) in the morning line announced Wednesday. Affirmed and Seattle Slew, the only two Triple Crown winners to race against each other in reality, were both assigned 5-1 odds. American Pharoah and Justify, the two most recent Triple Crown winners, are 6-1 and 15-1, respectively.
Unlike computer simulations of Great Britain’s Grand National steeplechase, U.S. law forbids betting on virtual racing. Beginning Thursday, fans will be able to enter their selections on KentuckyDerby.com for a chance to win a VIP experience for Derby 146 (rescheduled for Sept. 5) and the opportunity to donate to COVID-19 relief efforts. Churchill Downs has pledged to match those contributions up to $1 million.
“Each of the Triple Crown horses is assigned what we’re calling a win probability,” Churchill Downs spokesman Darren Rogers said. “That data is fed into Inspired Entertainment’s computer models. Those with a higher probability value are not necessarily going to win the race, but they’ll have more chances of doing so. The result is very much like the NBA draft. It’s a weighted lottery system.”
Computerized simulations of fictional sports events can be traced at least as far back as a 1967 heavyweight boxing tournament. Muhammad Ali, angered by his virtual second-round elimination by Jim Jeffries, “history’s clumsiest, most slow-footed heavyweight,” sued for defamation of character. Ali settled for $10,000 and a cut of a filmed fantasy fight against Rocky Marciano, a production that featured alternative endings for different audiences.
Inspired Entertainment has been producing virtual Grand Nationals before the race since 2017, with visually realistic and wager-worthy results. The first three installments were won by horses that would finish third, first and second in the actual race. After the real Grand National was canceled this year because of the coronavirus pandemic, the virtual race was won by an 18-1 longshot, Potters Corner.
A simulated Champion of Champions race more closely followed form, with three-time Grand National winner Red Rum passing the fading Don’t Push It following the final jump.
“Can I just say I would not have went to the front so soon on Don’t Push It,” famed jockey Sir Anthony McCoy tweeted. ”So I want no more abuse about giving him a bad ride.”
The Triple Crown Showdown is to be contested at a virtual Churchill Downs at the Derby distance of 1¼ miles. Affirmed, the 1978 Triple Crown winner, was assigned the No.1 post position by random draw; Secretariat No. 3; Citation No. 8. Brooks Pierce, president and chief operating officer of Inspired Entertainment, said track officials were shown three versions of the race depicting different weather conditions and chose to stage the simulated race in bright sunshine instead of the slop that has recently prevailed on the first Saturday in May.
Further suspending disbelief, the only jockey to ride two Triple Crown winners was not forced to choose between Whirlaway and Citation.
“Fortunately, this is a virtual fantasy race and therefore we have been able to clone Eddie Arcaro,” Rogers joked. “Eddie Arcaro in our fantasy race does not have to make the difficult decision of which Triple Crown winner he’s going to ride. He’ll be riding both. He’s that good.”
For the record, Arcaro’s preference was plain. Though Whirlaway set a track record in the 1941 Derby with a time of 2:01 2/5, four seconds faster than Citation’s muddy slog seven years later, Arcaro told a CBS correspondent, “Citation could carry the both of us and still beat Whirlaway.”
Weather, pace and traffic have so much bearing on races that Hall of Fame trainer Charlie Whittingham often said, “Time only matters when you’re in jail.” That said, Secretariat’s Derby record of 1:59 2/5 is nearly two seconds faster than that of any other Triple Crown winner. At a rate of roughly five lengths per second, Big Red finished the Derby about nine lengths ahead of the next-fastest Triple Crown winner, Affirmed.
Whether Big Red wins the virtual race remains a closely guarded secret and is, potentially, a source of spirited debate. While some fans might prefer a coronation to a competition, algorithms don’t always aim to please.
“Like every race, there’s always big favorites that don’t win,” Pierce said. “With 13 Triple Crown winners, it’s a more evenly matched race than a $10,000 allowance race on a Thursday.”
The virtual Kentucky Derby field
1. Affirmed, 1978
Morning-line odds: 5-1
Jockey: Steve Cauthen
Trainer: Laz Barrera
2. Assault, 1946
Odds: 20-1
Jockey: Warren Mehrtens
Trainer: Max Hirsch
3. Secretariat, 1973
Odds: 7-2
Jockey: Ron Turcotte
Trainer: Lucien Laurin
4. Sir Barton, 1919
Odds: 20-1
Jockey: Johnny Loftus
Trainer: Guy Bedwell
5. Seattle Slew, 1977
Odds: 5-1
Jockey: Jean Cruguet
Trainer: Billy Turner Jr.
6. American Pharoah, 2015
Odds: 6-1
Jockey: Victor Espinoza
Trainer: Bob Baffert
7. Gallant Fox, 1930
Odds: 20-1
Jockey: Earl Sande
Trainer: "Sunny" Jim Fitzsimmons
8. Citation, 1948
Odds: 4-1
Jockey: Eddie Arcaro
Trainer: Ben Jones
9. War Admiral, 1937
Odds: 8-1
Jockey: Charlie Kurtsinger
Trainer: George Conway
10. Whirlaway, 1941
Odds: 6-1
Jockey: Eddie Arcaro
Trainer: Ben Jones
11. Count Fleet, 1943
Odds: 6-1
Jockey: Johnny Longden
Trainer: Don Cameron
12. Justify, 2018
Odds: 15-1
Jockey: Mike Smith
Trainer: Bob Baffert
13. Omaha, 1935
Odds: 20-1
Jockey: Willie "Smokey" Saunders
Trainer: "Sunny" Jim Fitzsimmons
https://amp.usatoday.com/amp/3048210001
With the Kentucky Derby’s traditional time slot left vacant because of a coronavirus-caused postponement, NBC will be filling part of its programming void Saturday around 5:45 p.m. with a computer-generated fantasy race matching the 13 horses to win the Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes: the Triple Crown Showdown.
Though all three of Secretariat’s 1973 Triple Crown races remain the fastest ever run, Churchill Downs oddsmaker Mike Battaglia gave him only a narrow nod over 1948 winner Citation (4-1) in the morning line announced Wednesday. Affirmed and Seattle Slew, the only two Triple Crown winners to race against each other in reality, were both assigned 5-1 odds. American Pharoah and Justify, the two most recent Triple Crown winners, are 6-1 and 15-1, respectively.
Unlike computer simulations of Great Britain’s Grand National steeplechase, U.S. law forbids betting on virtual racing. Beginning Thursday, fans will be able to enter their selections on KentuckyDerby.com for a chance to win a VIP experience for Derby 146 (rescheduled for Sept. 5) and the opportunity to donate to COVID-19 relief efforts. Churchill Downs has pledged to match those contributions up to $1 million.
“Each of the Triple Crown horses is assigned what we’re calling a win probability,” Churchill Downs spokesman Darren Rogers said. “That data is fed into Inspired Entertainment’s computer models. Those with a higher probability value are not necessarily going to win the race, but they’ll have more chances of doing so. The result is very much like the NBA draft. It’s a weighted lottery system.”
Computerized simulations of fictional sports events can be traced at least as far back as a 1967 heavyweight boxing tournament. Muhammad Ali, angered by his virtual second-round elimination by Jim Jeffries, “history’s clumsiest, most slow-footed heavyweight,” sued for defamation of character. Ali settled for $10,000 and a cut of a filmed fantasy fight against Rocky Marciano, a production that featured alternative endings for different audiences.
Inspired Entertainment has been producing virtual Grand Nationals before the race since 2017, with visually realistic and wager-worthy results. The first three installments were won by horses that would finish third, first and second in the actual race. After the real Grand National was canceled this year because of the coronavirus pandemic, the virtual race was won by an 18-1 longshot, Potters Corner.
A simulated Champion of Champions race more closely followed form, with three-time Grand National winner Red Rum passing the fading Don’t Push It following the final jump.
“Can I just say I would not have went to the front so soon on Don’t Push It,” famed jockey Sir Anthony McCoy tweeted. ”So I want no more abuse about giving him a bad ride.”
The Triple Crown Showdown is to be contested at a virtual Churchill Downs at the Derby distance of 1¼ miles. Affirmed, the 1978 Triple Crown winner, was assigned the No.1 post position by random draw; Secretariat No. 3; Citation No. 8. Brooks Pierce, president and chief operating officer of Inspired Entertainment, said track officials were shown three versions of the race depicting different weather conditions and chose to stage the simulated race in bright sunshine instead of the slop that has recently prevailed on the first Saturday in May.
Further suspending disbelief, the only jockey to ride two Triple Crown winners was not forced to choose between Whirlaway and Citation.
“Fortunately, this is a virtual fantasy race and therefore we have been able to clone Eddie Arcaro,” Rogers joked. “Eddie Arcaro in our fantasy race does not have to make the difficult decision of which Triple Crown winner he’s going to ride. He’ll be riding both. He’s that good.”
For the record, Arcaro’s preference was plain. Though Whirlaway set a track record in the 1941 Derby with a time of 2:01 2/5, four seconds faster than Citation’s muddy slog seven years later, Arcaro told a CBS correspondent, “Citation could carry the both of us and still beat Whirlaway.”
Weather, pace and traffic have so much bearing on races that Hall of Fame trainer Charlie Whittingham often said, “Time only matters when you’re in jail.” That said, Secretariat’s Derby record of 1:59 2/5 is nearly two seconds faster than that of any other Triple Crown winner. At a rate of roughly five lengths per second, Big Red finished the Derby about nine lengths ahead of the next-fastest Triple Crown winner, Affirmed.
Whether Big Red wins the virtual race remains a closely guarded secret and is, potentially, a source of spirited debate. While some fans might prefer a coronation to a competition, algorithms don’t always aim to please.
“Like every race, there’s always big favorites that don’t win,” Pierce said. “With 13 Triple Crown winners, it’s a more evenly matched race than a $10,000 allowance race on a Thursday.”
The virtual Kentucky Derby field
1. Affirmed, 1978
Morning-line odds: 5-1
Jockey: Steve Cauthen
Trainer: Laz Barrera
2. Assault, 1946
Odds: 20-1
Jockey: Warren Mehrtens
Trainer: Max Hirsch
3. Secretariat, 1973
Odds: 7-2
Jockey: Ron Turcotte
Trainer: Lucien Laurin
4. Sir Barton, 1919
Odds: 20-1
Jockey: Johnny Loftus
Trainer: Guy Bedwell
5. Seattle Slew, 1977
Odds: 5-1
Jockey: Jean Cruguet
Trainer: Billy Turner Jr.
6. American Pharoah, 2015
Odds: 6-1
Jockey: Victor Espinoza
Trainer: Bob Baffert
7. Gallant Fox, 1930
Odds: 20-1
Jockey: Earl Sande
Trainer: "Sunny" Jim Fitzsimmons
8. Citation, 1948
Odds: 4-1
Jockey: Eddie Arcaro
Trainer: Ben Jones
9. War Admiral, 1937
Odds: 8-1
Jockey: Charlie Kurtsinger
Trainer: George Conway
10. Whirlaway, 1941
Odds: 6-1
Jockey: Eddie Arcaro
Trainer: Ben Jones
11. Count Fleet, 1943
Odds: 6-1
Jockey: Johnny Longden
Trainer: Don Cameron
12. Justify, 2018
Odds: 15-1
Jockey: Mike Smith
Trainer: Bob Baffert
13. Omaha, 1935
Odds: 20-1
Jockey: Willie "Smokey" Saunders
Trainer: "Sunny" Jim Fitzsimmons
https://amp.usatoday.com/amp/3048210001
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