SEC Notebook

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Week one lines to keep an eye on. Lines from 5Dimes.

Arkansas @ Auburn -22
The Tigers head into week one having covered eleven consecutive games. Now, on the heels of an offseason in which Bret Bielema and Gus Malzahn sparred over the ongoing tempo debate, both coaches can now take their disagreements to the field. The line is high. Still, is anyone ready to back the Hogs?

Utah State @ Tennessee -6.5
The spread is fascinating for a number of reasons, the most obvious being Utah State's quarterback Chuckie Keeton's return from a torn ACL. The Aggies are getting a touchdown, and keep in mind: Utah State has lost to Auburn, Wisconsin, BYU, Utah and Southern Cal by a combined 19 points since 2011.

Other Opening Game Lines (5Dimes)

Texas A&M @ South Carolina -12
Temple @ Vanderbilt -16.5
Boise St. vs Ole Miss -10.5 (Atlanta)
Arkansas @ Auburn -22
West Virginia vs Alabama -27 (Atlanta)
Utah State @ Tennessee -6.5
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National Recruiting Update (Rivals)

1. Alabama
3. Texas A&M
4. South Carolina
6. Auburn
7. Tennessee
8. Mississippi State
12. Georgia
13. LSU
20. Arkansas
28. Kentucky
31. Florida
37. Ole Miss
40. Missouri
77. Vanderbilt

* Six of the top 10 are from the Southeastern Conference...damn strong!
* Florida at number 31 is worrisome.
* Vanderbilt headed for some difficult seasons.
* Jones continues to recruit well at Tennessee.
* Texas A&M out recruiting Texas by a mile.
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Sidenote: Alabama recruited players from 15 states last year. For the 2015 class, Bama has secured player commitments from 10 states.

2014: Alabama (7), Louisiana (4), Florida (2), Georgia (2), Arkansas (1), California (1), Colorado (1), Iowa (1), Minnesota (1), North Carolina (1), Ohio (1), Oklahoma (1), South Carolina (1), Texas (1), Virginia (1).

2015: Alabama (5), Georgia (4), Florida (2), Louisiana (2), Mississippi (1), Missouri (1), Texas (1), California (1), New Jersey (1), Washington DC (1).

Anyone think Nick Saban is not the best recruiting head football coach in the country?

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[cloverleaf]

Mississippi State

The Bulldogs are loaded on the defensive line. Mississippi State plans to rotate up to ten players this season. The defense as a whole is the strength of the team and will return 19 of 22 from last year's two-deep roster. The leader of the group is sophomore tackle Chris Jones. At 6-5, 300 pounds, the former five-star recruit started as a true freshman and finished with 32 tackles, including 7 for loss and three sacks. The coaching staff referred to the linebackers as the heart of the defense last year. It could be the same in 2014. The LB's return two of their three starters, including leading tackler Benardrick McKinney. The secondary, an uncertain position last year, enters this season as a strength...especially at corner. Back at safety, Kendrick Market and Justin Cox played well throughout the spring. Both started games last season. Dan Mullen called this spring the best he's had since arriving in Starkville six years ago. A lot of that has to do with the talent and depth on the defensive side of the ball.

Defensive Starters Following Spring Practice:

DE Preston Smith (6-6, 270, Sr.)
DT Kaleb Eulls (6-4, 295, Sr.)
DT Chris Jones (6-5, 300, So.)
DE A.J. Jefferson (6-3, 265, So.)
LB Richie Brown (6-2, 235, So.)
LB Benardrick McKinney (6-5, 245, Jr.)
LB Matthew Wells (6-2, 218, Sr.)
CB Jamerson Love (5-10, 176, Sr.)
CB Taveze Calhoun (6-1, 185, Jr.)
FS Deontay Evans (5-10, 203, So.)
SS Kendrick Market (5-10, 190, Jr.)
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2014 Schedule

8/30 Southern Miss
9/06 UAB
9/13 @ South Alabama
9/20 @ LSU
10/4 Texas A&M
10/11 Auburn
10/25 Kentucky
11/01 Arkansas
11/08 Tennessee-Martin
11/15 @ Alabama
11/22 Vanderbilt
11/29 @ Ole Miss
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Sidenote: Mississippi State is a money burning 3-14 against the spread the last 16 games playing LSU.

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Top Games

August 28
Texas A&M @ South Carolina (First football game on new SEC Network has pretty good matchup.)

August 30
Alabama vs West Virginia (Not the initial good matchup Atlanta was hoping for.)
LSU vs Wisconsin (Another marquee matchup at neutral site for SEC team.)
Clemson @ Georgia (Dawgs seek revenge after losing high-scoring affair last year.)

September 13
Georgia @ South Carolina (Gamecocks have won 3 of 4 vs Dawgs in key East matchup.)
Tennessee @ Oklahoma (First regular season game between the schools.)

September 18
Auburn @ Kansas State (Tigers make rare trip into Big 12 country.)

September 20
Florida @ Alabama (Gators find out fast if they'll be East Division contender.)

September 27
Missouri @ South Carolina (Gamecocks won a double-overtime thriller last season.)

October 4
LSU @ Auburn (LSU was the only team to defeat Auburn last year.)

October 11
LSU @ Florida (Tigers would like to end annual series with traditional rival.)
Georgia @ Missouri (Tigers' upset last year propelled them to East title.)

October 18
Texas A&M @ Alabama (Aggies' hurry-up offense is one reason Saban dislikes it.)

October 25
Alabama @ Tennessee (Nick Saban has dominated Vols (7-0) since going to Bama.)
South Carolina @ Auburn (Clash of top 10 teams that won 11 games last year.)
Ole Miss @ LSU (One fierce rivalry growing as Rebels make return.)

November 1
Florida vs Georgia (Dawgs won three in a row for first time since 1987-89.)

November 8
Alabama @ LSU (SEC's two best programs over past decade square off.)
Texas A&M @ Auburn (Will Aggies still be in West race without Manziel?)

November 15
South Carolina @ Florida (Spurrier has won 3 of last 4 against his alma mater.)
Georgia @ Auburn (South's oldest rivalry...remember Auburn's miracle finish last year.)

November 27
Texas A&M @ LSU (Les has beaten Kevin Sumlin the last two years.)

November 28
Auburn @ Alabama (Winner of this game has played for 5 straight national titles.)
Florida @ Florida State (Seminoles put a beat down on Gators last year.)
South Carolina @ Clemson (Spurrier has won five straight over Dabo.)
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2014 Bowl Connections

One or more SEC teams are eligible for the four team College Football Playoff. Those SEC teams not selected for the semifinals then go into the pool for the four other "big bowls" - Orange, Fiesta, Cotton and Peach this season - before falling into the league's regular affiliations:

SEC # 1 Capital One vs Big Ten
SEC #2-7 Outback vs Big Ten
SEC #2-7 Music City vs ACC/Big Ten
SEC #2-7 Gator vs ACC/Big Ten
SEC #2-7 Liberty vs Big 12
SEC #2-7 Texas Bowl vs Big 12
SEC #2-7 Belk vs ACC
SEC #8-9 Birmingham vs AAC
SEC #8-9 Independence vs ACC
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Stat of the Day: Just 54 days until college football kickoff (Aug. 27th).

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[TyBounce]

Per Travis Reier - BamaOnLine

105 minutes ago Alabama running back Kenyan Drake was arrested Saturday morning on a Class A misdemeanor charge of obstructing government operations, according to the Tuscaloosa County Sheriff's Office arrest database. Bond was set at $1,000 and Drake had secured a bondsman. Drake, a junior, worked behind TJ Yeldon and Derrick Henry during spring drills. In his first two seasons in the program, he rushed for 975 yards and 13 touchdowns and caught 12 passes for 135 yards and another score.

 

[rolltide]

u guys see the spurrier quote calling out saban? good stuff. also funny that ball coach hasn't won a damn thing since Mr Saban arrived. guessing he would keep his mouth shut if they were playing at anytime before 2019....


“How many SECs has (Saban) won there in eight years? He’s won two. He’s won three nationals, but he’s only won two SECs in eight years. Now, if you had the No. 1 recruiting class every year and so forth, I don’t know if he has maxed out potentially as well as he could. If I had had five No. 1 recruiting classes in the last six years like Alabama, I would say, ‘Fellas we are going to mess up if we lose a game, because we’ve got the best players in college football."

 

[CoachCB]

u guys see the spurrier quote calling out saban? good stuff. also funny that ball coach hasn't won a damn thing since Mr Saban arrived. guessing he would keep his mouth shut if they were playing at anytime before 2019....


“How many SECs has (Saban) won there in eight years? He’s won two. He’s won three nationals, but he’s only won two SECs in eight years. Now, if you had the No. 1 recruiting class every year and so forth, I don’t know if he has maxed out potentially as well as he could. If I had had five No. 1 recruiting classes in the last six years like Alabama, I would say, ‘Fellas we are going to mess up if we lose a game, because we’ve got the best players in college football."

Spurrier is the best! He's seemed to have a hard-on for Saban & Bama this off-season. He's fucked w/ him/them quite a bit.

 

[rolltide]

He's seemed to have a hard-on for Saban & Bama this off-season.

must be that blue pill

 

[rolltide]

chomp! chomp!

GAINESVILLE, Fla. -- Ex-Florida and New England Patriots star tight end Aaron Hernandez, jailed while awaiting trial in the killings of three men, is Mr. July in the Gators' 2014 sports calendar

 

[CoachCB]

chomp! chomp!

GAINESVILLE, Fla. -- Ex-Florida and New England Patriots star tight end Aaron Hernandez, jailed while awaiting trial in the killings of three men, is Mr. July in the Gators' 2014 sports calendar

Fuckin amateur hour down there in the marketing department....no excuse for it. They put out a crocodile on the cover of the media guide a year or two ago.

 

[cloverleaf]

Since we're all chatting.............

Old GAMBLERS SONG: Joe Bonamassa-Sloe Gin @ Royal Albert Hall (new guys don't have a frecken clue...old timers will during their careers.)
With due respect to my all-time favorites: Mark Knoffler and Eric Clapton...this kid is the best guitar player in the world...don't believe me, then check him out.

Would appreciate a notebook guy posting the song....I don't know how. Many thanks.

 

[TyBounce]

top 5 one-on-one matchups for Bama in 2014 ....

Previewing five one-on-one matchups for the Alabama Crimson Tide during the 2014 season.
The matchup: Alabama wide receiver Amari Cooper vs. Florida cornerback Vernon Hargreaves, III
When: Sept. 20
Where: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa
Why it will be worth watching: A strong argument could be made for this being a matchup between the top wide receiver and cornerback in the college game. As a true freshman in 2013, Hargreaves picked off three passes and broke up 11 more on his way to earning unanimous first-team All-SEC honors. As for Cooper, he's been at his best in some big spots during his two seasons at Alabama. Expect UF to try and single cover Cooper with Hargreaves until Alabama's yet-to-be-determined quarterback proves he can beat tight coverage. Doing so will free up an extra Florida defender to work against the run. Don't be surprised if other opponents employ the same approach, especially early in the season. The difference is, Hargreaves is capable of manning up against Cooper. West Virginia, Florida Atlantic and Southern Miss don't have those kind of talents on the perimeter.

The matchup: Alabama offensive tackle Cam Robinson vs. Florida outside linebacker Dante Fowler, Jr.
When: Sept. 20
Where: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa
Why it will be worth watching: Assuming Robinson maintains his post-spring grip on the starting job at left tackle, this one will pit cbssports.com's No. 3 defensive end prospect for the NFL Draft class of 2015 against 247sports.com's No. 1 offensive line prospect for the 2014 recruiting cycle. Depending on the package UF is in, Fowler, a second-team All-SEC selection by the Associated Press a season ago after recording 10.5 tackles for loss, 3.5 sacks and seven quarterback hurries, will go against either Robinson or right tackle Austin Shepherd. That said, look for Fowler to line up with his hand on the ground on Robinson's side in passing situations. Robinson will have a few games under his belt by the time the Gators come to town but the closest thing he will have seen to Fowler at that point will have come from going against his teammates in practice. Depending on how Robinson develops through the first three games of the season, this might be a good week to go with the two-tight end sets UA has used frequently under Nick Saban.

The matchup: Alabama running back TJ Yeldon vs. Tennessee middle linebacker A.J. Johnson
When: Oct. 25
Where: Neyland Stadium, Knoxville
Why it will be worth watching: These two have history, with pretty much all of the good news going Yeldon and Alabama's way. While Johnson, a unanimous first-team All-SEC selection last season after recording 106 tackles, including 8.5 for loss, has been active in three starts against UA (37 career tackles), he's watched Yeldon run for 201 yards and five touchdowns in the team's last two meetings. Of concern for Johnson and the Vols is the fact that the UT defense is currently undergoing a complete personnel overhaul of its front. And just when he's gotten tired of catching Yeldon, he'll have to deal with Derrick Henry and the rest of the Crimson Tide's talented running back stable.

The matchup: Alabama middle linebacker Trey DePriest vs. LSU running back Leonard Fournette
When: Nov. 8
Where: Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge
Why it will be worth watching: Maybe we're getting a little ahead of ourselves with Fournette, a true freshman ranked by 247sports.com as the nation's top running back recruit for the class of 2014. After all, Terrence Magee proved more than capable in support of Jeremy Hill in 2013, rushing for 358 yards and five touchdowns in the final five games of last season. The stretch included a pair of 100-yard efforts and ended with Magee averaging 7.3 yards per rush for the season. Still, Fournette's talent will likely prove too large to keep on the sideline, so look for a mix of the two at a minimum. From DePriest's perspective, a linebacker entering his third season as a starter has seen the best the SEC has to offer. And after a sub-par performance against the Tigers two seasons ago, which was due in part to injury, he responded with six tackles, including 1.5 for loss, and a sack in UA's 38-17 win over LSU in 2013. With CJ Mosley no longer around, Alabama will need more of those kind of stat lines from DePriest this year.

The matchup: Alabama safety Landon Collins vs. Auburn quarterback Nick Marshall
When: Nov. 29
Where: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa
Why it will be worth watching: While the quarterback-safety matchup is usually associated with the passing game, this one might have more to do with the running game. Make no mistake about it, Marshall is going to pick up some yards. The key for Collins and Alabama's other safeties will be to keep the gate closed as best as possible, something that didn't happen on Marshall's 45-yard touchdown run in last season's meeting. From there, the object will be to force AU into obvious passing situations, where the Alabama secondary can best take advantage of Marshall's weaknesses.

http://alabama.247sports.com/Article/Five-one-on-one-matchups-for-Alabama-in-2014-29463813

 

[TyBounce]

Since we're all chatting.............

Old GAMBLERS SONG: Joe Bonamassa-Sloe Gin @ Royal Albert Hall (new guys don't have a frecken clue...old timers will during their careers.)
With due respect to my all-time favorites: Mark Knoffler and Eric Clapton...this kid is the best guitar player in the world...don't believe me, then check him out.

Would appreciate a notebook guy posting the song....I don't know how. Many thanks.

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/F1_6yCHnSI4" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

[TyBounce]

^^ Sorry clover , i tried but nada ???

 

[GoSooners]

Here ya go Clover

Bonamassa Sloe Gin

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F1_6yCHnSI4


Bonamassa learned most of his riffs from Danny Gatton, who I consider the greatest guitar player who ever lived. Bonamassa talks about his days hanging around Gatton.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=74kOCd7bJQc



Danny Gatton doing Sleepwalk

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RyjtW-rvWoQ&list=PL69D0241557A0C004


The guitar prodigy family tree. Bonamassa learned from Gatton. Gatton learned from Roy Buchanan

 

[CoachCB]

Ty, good stuff on the Bama 1-on-1 matchups...glad to see 2 Gators making the cut. I'm ready to see Fowler kick some ass. He's been mostly potential, w/ some shine here and there....but w/ the way UF has played the last 15+ games there hasn't been much excitement coming out of Gainesville.

 

[cloverleaf]

GoSooners
Many thanks for posting the Joe Bonamassa song. I'm going to see him in concert twice later on this year and really looking forward to it. The kid (well he's in his 30's now) can really play that guitar. He does a song with Eric Claption and one with Warren Hayes that are worth seeing on YouTube. Again, appreciate you sir.
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SEC Quick Hits

Alabama
*Nick Saban is 50-37 against the spread during his seven years at Alabama. Take away the first year (2007) where he was 3-8 ATS and he's a money making 47-29 (61.8%).
*The Crimson Tide allowed the fewest TD's (14) in the nation last year. The D will be good again this season.

Arkansas
*The Razorbacks tied with Notre Dame for 2nd fewest sacks allowed (8) last year and three of those regulars are back.
*Bret Bielema failed to win a conference game last season going 0-8.

Auburn
*Gus Malzahn is 15-0 straight up and against the spread as a head coach after facing a conference opponent.
*The Tigers are 12-3 against the spread their last 15 games against LSU, South Carolina and Ole Miss.

Florida
*Will Muschamp enters his fourth season with a 22-16 record.
*The last Gator receiver to surpass 570 receiving yards in a season was TE Aaron Herandez (850) in 2009.
*SEC surprise team of the year...Florida Gators.

Georgia
*Twenty eight of the Bulldogs' 45 losses under Richt have been by 7 points or less, including 10 of the last 15.
*The Dawgs are just 3-12 against the spread against South Carolina and Tennessee the last 12 games.
*Mark Richt enters his fourteenth year in Athens with a 126-45 record.

Kentucky
*The Wildcats have lost 17 straight road games, going 4-13 against the spread in those games.
*Mark Stoops will have 16 starters returning...the most in the program since 2000.
*The Cats are 10-21 against the spread in SEC games the past four years.

LSU
*Les Miles enters his tenth year in Baton Rouge with a 95-24 record.
*The Tigers had 9 players drafted each of the last two years, the most of all FBS teams.
*Miles is 1-10 against the spread in conference home opener.

Ole Miss
*Returning starting quarterback Bo Wallace set a school record with 3,701 total yards last season.
*Hugh Freeze is 20-2 straight up and 16-3 against the spread in games verses .500 or less opponents.

Mississippi State
*Dan Mullen enters his sixth year in Starkville with a 36-28 record. He is 30-29 against the spread.
*The Bulldog offense set 7 school records in 2013, including total yards, passing yards, yards per game and passing yards per game.

Missouri
*Gary Pinkel enters his fourteenth year in Columbia with a 80-72-3 record against the spread.
*The Tigers held every foe, other than Auburn, under its season rushing average last year.
*Since entering the SEC, the Tigers are 10-7 against the spread in league games.

South Carolina
*Steve Spurrier went 21-16 his first three years with the Gamecocks...he has gone 33-6 his past three seasons.
*The Birds are 15-0 straight up and 8-4 against the spread in their last 15 non-conference games.
*SC is 9-1 against the spread last 10 at home vs non-conference opponents.

Tennessee
*The Vols are 1-22 straight up in their last 23 games versus ranked opponents.
*Five of the past six seasons have been losers for the Knoxville Gang.

Texas A&M
*The Aggies played 20 first time players, including 15 true freshmen, in their season opener last year.
*A&M has been a money burner the past 6 game against Arkansas going 1-5 against the spread.

Vanderbilt
*The Commodores are 0-13 straight up and 2-11 against the spread in Game Six of the season. Georgia #6 this year.
*Vandy is 1-10 against the spread before Georgia. Kentucky in the role this season.
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Alert: Only 49 days until college football kickoff!!!

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[rolltide]

*The Bulldog offense set 7 school records in 2013, including total yards, passing yards, yards per game and passing yards per game.

- telling ya...if there is one surprise team in the sec to circle this year it's the bulldogs with prescott, lewis, and perhaps the sec's most impactful defensive player ... wouldn't want to be playing them in starkville like aTm, barn, ark, and vandy. I can easily see them 8-3 going into the egg bowl...even 9-2 if they pull off an upset of the barn. season win total of 7.5 is too low (then again it IS the sec west)

Mississippi State 2014 regular season wins - conference championships & bowl games do not apply
Sat 8/30		30645 Mississippi State total wins over 7½		-110
7:30PM		30646 Mississippi State total wins under 7½		-120

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Jul 9
10:00
AM ET
By David Ching | ESPN.com

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Auburn is the favorite to win every game this season except the Iron Bowl, but the Tigers have only the fourth-best odds of winning the SEC title for a second straight season. This according to the preseason projections that ESPN’s Stats and Information team released on Tuesday.

SEC win projections

ESPN Stats and Information's projected 2014 wins for each SEC team:

Team	Odds
Alabama	9.9
Auburn	9.2
Georgia	9.1
South Carolina	8.9
Mississippi State	8.5
Texas A&M	8.3
LSU	8.0
Ole Miss	7.7
Florida	7.6
Missouri	7.0
Kentucky	5.5
Tennessee	5.4
Vanderbilt	4.9
Arkansas	4.9

Using its preseason Football Power Index as a guide, the Stats and Information group’s projections covered a wide range of categories including likelihood of going undefeated, odds of winning conference and division titles, likelihood of winning individual games and projected win totals.

The data showed Florida State as a heavy favorite to repeat as the national champion, with the Seminoles having a 40 percent chance of going undefeated and at least an 87 percent chance of winning each of its games. The next-closest team, Oregon, has a 13 percent chance of going undefeated.

At the other end of the spectrum, Kansas (projection of 3.3 wins), Purdue (3.6), Wake Forest (3.6) and California (3.8) are the teams from the Big Five conferences that are projected to win the fewest games.

The projections covered every FBS program, but we’re here to discuss the SEC, where -- surprise, surprise -- Alabama is the favorite to hoist the conference championship trophy in Atlanta. Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide has a 23 percent chance to win the conference title according to ESPN’s projections, leading South Carolina (17 percent), Georgia (17) and Auburn (16), which was certainly a much bigger underdog at this point a season ago.

Obviously Gus Malzahn's 2013 club proved that things can change a great deal between July and December -- and the Stats and Information group’s projections will be updated throughout the season -- but here’s where each SEC team sits for now, a little less than a month away from the start of preseason practice.

Alabama: The Crimson Tide is projected to win 9.9 games and has a 4 percent chance of going undefeated. In addition to its 22.6 percent chance of winning the SEC, Alabama has a 38 percent chance of winning the SEC West. Alabama is the favorite in every game and has at least a 64.5 percent chance of winning all but the LSU (57.5) and Auburn (57.8) games.

Arkansas: The Razorbacks play the SEC’s toughest schedule (No. 4 in the nation) and are projected to win 4.9 games. They have a 0 percent chance to win the conference title and a 0.01 percent chance of winning the West. In individual games, however, Arkansas is favored to win only against UAB (96.8 percent chance of a win), Nicholls State (96.7) and Northern Illinois (71.7).

Auburn: The only other team in the nation’s top 10 in strength of schedule (the Tigers are 10th), Auburn is projected to win 9.2 games. They have a 1 percent chance of going undefeated, a 16.3 percent chance of winning the SEC and a 26.7 percent chance of winning the West. The Tigers have at least a 60 percent chance to win every game except Alabama (42.2) and Georgia (54.4).

Florida: Projected to win 7.6 games, Florida has a 6.2 percent chance of winning the SEC and a 16.3 percent chance of winning the SEC East. The Gators are favored in seven games and underdogs against LSU (49.9), South Carolina (45.6), Georgia (35.7), Alabama (20.7) and Florida State (8.9).

Georgia: Oddly enough, while South Carolina has a slightly better chance of winning the SEC according to ESPN’s projections, Georgia has a small edge over the Gamecocks with a projection of 9.1 wins. The Bulldogs have a 17.1 percent chance of winning the conference and a 37.5 percent chance of winning the East. They have at least at 63.4 percent chance of beating every opponent except South Carolina (41.1) and Auburn (45.6).

Kentucky: ESPN’s projections have Kentucky making a step forward in Year 2 under Mark Stoops, winning 5.5 games this fall. The Wildcats have a 0.03 percent chance of winning the SEC and a 0.09 percent chance of winning the East. They are favored to beat Tennessee-Martin, Ohio, Vanderbilt and Louisiana-Monroe, but there next-best chance of winning is 37.9 percent against Tennessee.

LSU: Les Miles’ Tigers are projected to win 8.0 games, with a 4.6 percent chance of winning the SEC and a 9.5 percent chance of winning the West. However, the Tigers are favored in nine games -- all but Auburn (26.8), Texas A&M (38.0) and Alabama (42.5).

Mississippi State: The Bulldogs are projected to win 8.5 games, with a 4.7 percent chance of winning the conference and 9.7 percent chance of winning the West. Mississippi State is favored in eight games -- all but Ole Miss (47.0), Auburn (40.0), LSU (39.7) and Alabama (25.5).

Missouri: Projected to win 7.0 games, Missouri has a 2.3 percent chance of winning the SEC and a 7.1 percent chance of representing the East in Atlanta for a second straight season. The Tigers are favored in eight games and underdogs against Georgia (36.6), Florida (32.3), Texas A&M (22.2) and South Carolina (21.9).

Ole Miss: Hugh Freeze’s club is projected to win 7.7 games and has a 2.9 percent chance of winning the conference and a 6.5 percent chance of winning the West. The Rebels are favored in eight games and are underdogs against Alabama (35.5), Auburn (35.0), LSU (34.7) and Texas A&M (31.2).

South Carolina: The Gamecocks are projected to win 8.9 games, have a 17.9 percent chance of winning the SEC and a 37.2 percent chance of winning the East. South Carolina is favored in all games except Clemson (47.5) and Auburn (30.4).

Tennessee: Projected to win 5.4 games, Butch Jones’ Volunteers have a 0.02 percent chance of winning the SEC and a 0.1 percent chance of winning the East. The Vols are favored to win five games: Utah State, Arkansas State, Chattanooga, Kentucky and Vanderbilt.

Texas A&M: The Aggies are projected to win 8.3 games and have a 4.8 percent chance of winning the SEC and a 9.5 percent chance of winning the West. Texas A&M is favored in eight games and is an underdog against Mississippi State (47.6), South Carolina (41.4), Alabama (30.5) and Auburn (30.1).

Vanderbilt: The James Franklin-less Commodores are projected to drop to 4.9 wins under first-year coach Derek Mason. They have a 0 percent chance of winning the SEC and a 0.02 percent chance of winning the East. Vandy is favored against UMass, Charleston Southern, Temple and Old Dominion.

SEC Team championship percentages

Team	% chance of winning SEC	% chance of winning division
Alabama	22.6	38.0
South Carolina	17.2	37.9
Georgia	17.1	37.5
Auburn	16.3	26.7
Florida	6.2	16.3
Texas A&M	4.8	9.5
Mississippi State	4.7	9.7
LSU	4.6	9.5
Ole Miss	2.9	6.5
Missouri	2.3	7.1
Kentucky	0.03	0.09
Tennessee	0.02	0.1
Vanderbilt	0.0	0.02
Arkansas	0.0	0.01

 

[cloverleaf]

Good info RT........I have Alabama and South Carolina playing in Atlanta.
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Alabama

It speaks to the quality of play in the SEC that Auburn exits from a national title game appearance with 14 starters coming back yet the pick to win this division is their cross-state rival. Alabama returns only 12 starters and lost two straight games to close last season, but let's consider the last time they were in those kinds of situations. In 2010, the Crimson Tide returned only 10 starters. In 2012, they returned 11 starters. They won the national championship both years. There's a sense that last season's team may have had a little bit of an entitlement attitude. The new Bama players are hungry. If you saw Nick Saban jump down a reporters throat for suggesting there was depth on the defensive line with "we've never seen them take on an SEC lineman man," you realize that every player on that team knows they have much to prove. It's worth noting that despite Alabama's talent loss, the guys stepping in are all 4 and 5 star recruits. Losing AJ McCarron is a big change after three years but transfer Jacob Coker would probably have started for 115 teams last season had he not been stuck behind the Heisman Trophy winner at Florida State. This is a team that is 62-9 the last six seasons. They lost to Auburn on a miracle play and then were understandably disinterested in their bowl game. But now nobody is comfortable. Top recruits are stepping in from backup roles to assume key positions. Things seem set up well for a big year in Tuscaloosa, and they're dead set on making the national playoffs. Not sure I would bet against them, especially with such a favorable schedule.

West Virginia (Atlanta).....Florida Atlantic.....Southern Miss.....Florida.....@Ole Miss.....@Arkansas.....Texas A&M.....@Tennessee.....@LSU.....Mississippi State.....Western Carolina.....Auburn

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Sidenote: Alabama is 11-4 against the spread the past 15 games away playing LSU.

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[CoachCB]

CL, the Florida game for Bama is going to be big. Both teams should be 3-0. Unfortunately for UF the game is at Bama (and how the fuck did the SEC move the Florida/Tennessee game for this? That game has been played that weekend for the last 22 years!). If UF's offense makes significant improvement I think they give Bama a game. Coker was a 3-star recruit. You say he'd have started for 115 teams last year if not for Rapeist Winston. I disagree. This will be his first real test. UF's D has some question marks, but it's been Muschamp's only shining spot since he's been there. Roper is legit...but the results remain to be seen. I think Bama wins going away (as usual), but if Coker is forced to make plays it could get interesting. I think Bama will try to run it down UF's throat and force UF to stop their running game. If UF has success in slowing down the run, Coker will be forced to show what he's made of.

 

[cloverleaf]

Well said Coach. I may try to make the Florida game this year. The older I've gotten, the less I enjoy the travel, crowds, etc.. Nice to watch it from my home as well as other games on Saturday.

Regarding QB Coker. Jimbo Fisher said Coker almost beat out the Heisman guy for the starting job. It was that close. Who knows, if Coker had been the starting QB on a very talented FSU team...might have had a different trophy winner. I'm not the least bit worried about Bama's quarterback play...it's the damn kicking game that worries me.