So halfway through the season, what have we learnt? I think what we have learnt, as always, depends on whether you are winning or losing. When we win on bets we tend not to analyse it much, even being lucky we tend to put it conveniently to the back of the mind. Conversely, we over-analyse the losers when maybe nothing was wrong with the initial selection. (I love the euphemism; I was on the right side.)
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Even taking into account the Win / Lose perspective, there are still many eyebrow raising results which need to be addressed. The problem is, if we just accept these without attempting to find some logic behind them then we might as well bet on a coin toss. (I am sure as far as LSUpete is concerned, this is already the case, William Hill has a program now where you can bet Heads / Tails from your mobile.)
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My own explanation, which is by all means open to debate, is the dreaded parity in the NFL. So many games go to the wire; one play wins a game, etc. The depth on every Team, especially Defense, has become paper-thin and injuries seem to dictate teams season. I feel looking at the results so far; they can be answered by asking, what is different from last year and what was expected this year.
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After 8 Weeks, the thing that sticks out to me is how many Teams are the same as last year. Seattle got off to a great start but now look the same as last year, Kansas, Denver, Baltimore, Minnesota, Green Bay, New England, Indianapolis and St Louis have had their ups and downs but will still carry on as usual. Tennessee, Cincinnati, Miami, Carolina, Dallas, Chicago and Detroit have been hit by excessive injuries, which have killed their season.
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As far as improved Teams, Jacksonville and Houston stand out, Cleveland to a lesser degree. Two Teams I expect to get a lot better are Buffalo and Arizona. Wallis Magee will make a difference to this Team as will Boldins return at Arizona. Ignoring the bottom-feeders, that leaves San Diego, Pittsburgh and The Jets.
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I mention these 3 Teams because, from a betting point of view, they are Teams on a high where people think (rightly or wrongly) are improved and going places. Firstly, I would like to address some on-going myths concerning Bookmaking that seem to constantly surface on this Forum.
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There is nothing special or unworldly about bookmaking, just think of it as a food chain. Given that people know the business, then its just understanding where they are. Top of the food chain is the big boys, in Europe this would be Ladbrokes and William Hill. They have in house odds compilers who are expert in their field and a good knowledge of how the public will feel about a certain event. Their turnover is such that, as long as the odds are right, everyone is happy. Below them are bookmakers who will use the top peoples odds but be under the best. This way they can have enough clients and hedge out if they overlay one. Next in line are the true smarties / sufferers (I say this because this is where I was all my bookmaking life) Small bookmakers have to give the best prices to keep their clients but hedgeing their money ad hoc doesn’t make a living. I must say first that a bookmaker is under severe pressure laying mostly 2 horse books (A Match) English Books work on 115%- 130% on their main income, Horseracing. NFL and such is 105%. Anyways, at this level, you take a view, hence moving the spread ½ a point or more to get what you want. This is no more than betting at enhanced odds.
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So, going on the premise that everything is the same as last year, what have these 3 Teams got that may be different this year.
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San Diego:
Reading all the various publications, the consensus for The Chargers winning is mainly Brees improved play, more understanding with his receivers and a general confident feeling throughout the Team. Reality is that after losses to the Jets and Denver, it was just a matter of time for him. However, 2 home victories against a gimped Titans and improved Jags, things looked up. A tight loss against an Atlanta side, which looked good at the time, followed by wins against bad Carolina and Oakland Teams are making people believe this Team has turned the corner.
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New York Jets:
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Oh finally arrived, all the pieces are in place. 1 loss, to the Superbowl champs on the road. This Team is the real deal after beating Miami twice, SF49ers, Cincy and Buffalo at home and a road win against San Diego (before they bought into being a good team) I think that says it without getting to deep, like Herm’s coaching mentality.
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Pittsburgh Steelers:
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This is not so funny, I could be wrong. The improvement here is in Duce’s running game, Bens QB prowess and the Steelers Defense. What is funny is that at the start of the season, all to a man, including Steelers fans, there was no argument that the Steelers secondary was a disaster. Now, with DL Casey Hampton and liability Chad Scott out, nobody cares. Why, The Steelers are on a roll, wins at home against Cincy and Cleveland, a get out of jail win @ Dallas and the big enchilada against a depleted Patriots side.
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As I said earlier, I think the only way you can justify whats happened so far is to assume the majority of Teams are the same as last year. So Pitts, SD and The Jets are heading for a fall. Will it be this Week? Who knows?
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San Diego are giving up at least 6 against a Team that can shred anyone on their day ( not very often ) The Steelers are only getting 1 against an unbeaten and solid side. The Jets are giving up 3 on the road to a Team that just might be turning the corner.
<o></o>
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
fficeffice" /><o></o>Even taking into account the Win / Lose perspective, there are still many eyebrow raising results which need to be addressed. The problem is, if we just accept these without attempting to find some logic behind them then we might as well bet on a coin toss. (I am sure as far as LSUpete is concerned, this is already the case, William Hill has a program now where you can bet Heads / Tails from your mobile.)
<o
></o>My own explanation, which is by all means open to debate, is the dreaded parity in the NFL. So many games go to the wire; one play wins a game, etc. The depth on every Team, especially Defense, has become paper-thin and injuries seem to dictate teams season. I feel looking at the results so far; they can be answered by asking, what is different from last year and what was expected this year.
<o
></o>After 8 Weeks, the thing that sticks out to me is how many Teams are the same as last year. Seattle got off to a great start but now look the same as last year, Kansas, Denver, Baltimore, Minnesota, Green Bay, New England, Indianapolis and St Louis have had their ups and downs but will still carry on as usual. Tennessee, Cincinnati, Miami, Carolina, Dallas, Chicago and Detroit have been hit by excessive injuries, which have killed their season.
<o
></o>As far as improved Teams, Jacksonville and Houston stand out, Cleveland to a lesser degree. Two Teams I expect to get a lot better are Buffalo and Arizona. Wallis Magee will make a difference to this Team as will Boldins return at Arizona. Ignoring the bottom-feeders, that leaves San Diego, Pittsburgh and The Jets.
<o
></o>I mention these 3 Teams because, from a betting point of view, they are Teams on a high where people think (rightly or wrongly) are improved and going places. Firstly, I would like to address some on-going myths concerning Bookmaking that seem to constantly surface on this Forum.
<o
></o>There is nothing special or unworldly about bookmaking, just think of it as a food chain. Given that people know the business, then its just understanding where they are. Top of the food chain is the big boys, in Europe this would be Ladbrokes and William Hill. They have in house odds compilers who are expert in their field and a good knowledge of how the public will feel about a certain event. Their turnover is such that, as long as the odds are right, everyone is happy. Below them are bookmakers who will use the top peoples odds but be under the best. This way they can have enough clients and hedge out if they overlay one. Next in line are the true smarties / sufferers (I say this because this is where I was all my bookmaking life) Small bookmakers have to give the best prices to keep their clients but hedgeing their money ad hoc doesn’t make a living. I must say first that a bookmaker is under severe pressure laying mostly 2 horse books (A Match) English Books work on 115%- 130% on their main income, Horseracing. NFL and such is 105%. Anyways, at this level, you take a view, hence moving the spread ½ a point or more to get what you want. This is no more than betting at enhanced odds.
<o
></o>So, going on the premise that everything is the same as last year, what have these 3 Teams got that may be different this year.
<o
></o>San Diego:
Reading all the various publications, the consensus for The Chargers winning is mainly Brees improved play, more understanding with his receivers and a general confident feeling throughout the Team. Reality is that after losses to the Jets and Denver, it was just a matter of time for him. However, 2 home victories against a gimped Titans and improved Jags, things looked up. A tight loss against an Atlanta side, which looked good at the time, followed by wins against bad Carolina and Oakland Teams are making people believe this Team has turned the corner.
<o
></o>New York Jets:
<o
></o>Oh finally arrived, all the pieces are in place. 1 loss, to the Superbowl champs on the road. This Team is the real deal after beating Miami twice, SF49ers, Cincy and Buffalo at home and a road win against San Diego (before they bought into being a good team) I think that says it without getting to deep, like Herm’s coaching mentality.
<o
></o>Pittsburgh Steelers:
<o
></o>This is not so funny, I could be wrong. The improvement here is in Duce’s running game, Bens QB prowess and the Steelers Defense. What is funny is that at the start of the season, all to a man, including Steelers fans, there was no argument that the Steelers secondary was a disaster. Now, with DL Casey Hampton and liability Chad Scott out, nobody cares. Why, The Steelers are on a roll, wins at home against Cincy and Cleveland, a get out of jail win @ Dallas and the big enchilada against a depleted Patriots side.
<o
></o>As I said earlier, I think the only way you can justify whats happened so far is to assume the majority of Teams are the same as last year. So Pitts, SD and The Jets are heading for a fall. Will it be this Week? Who knows?
<o
></o>San Diego are giving up at least 6 against a Team that can shred anyone on their day ( not very often ) The Steelers are only getting 1 against an unbeaten and solid side. The Jets are giving up 3 on the road to a Team that just might be turning the corner.
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></o>
