That's fair. I just think that you are diluting your profit by playing more in the pools other than Win. Yes, it is easier on the mind that you are at least cashing when your choices run 2nd or 3rd (if you bet show), but that's where money management comes into play. Betting win only isn't for everyone, hell I make place bets myself, but only when getting double digit odds for the most part, or when a minus pool is present.
This whole taking a break thing is rough, especially when FG cards a day like they did today with LA Champions Day. I even skipped the DEL handicapping tournament. But that doesn't mean I won't peek into the forums.
This whole taking a break thing is rough, especially when FG cards a day like they did today with LA Champions Day. I even skipped the DEL handicapping tournament. But that doesn't mean I won't peek into the forums.
I can see the rationale for the 1/3 ratio, in case said horse only places: $2.80 returns a profit, as well 2.60 with a rebate.
Myself, I use a 2-1 place/win ratio as a base;
However, place/win bet may not even be advisable-- odds ranges & particular pool pays determine what way to bet:
assuming no pool anomalies, usually-- if a horse places only, the return is highest if instead all the funds are bet to show solely. This is usually so for 5-1 & lesser odds-- though the potential pool payoffs must be calculated: it there's enough of a difference between place / show, the place/win may work irregardless of odds.
btw heavy favorites are still very playable, all funds solely on place OR show, depending on payoff: i have no problem whatsoever with receiving a few cents less(up to about a dollar) than the win price for place or show.
(Note there is money to be made even at these low prices-- I hook them in parlays of 2, 3 or 4 at a time.
I'm just realistic about win %, & prefer cashing over half the time, even if for less-- the only win locks / fairly high % opportunities, besides trainer angles, i'm able to discern nowadays are the dominant run-style horse favored by corresponding bias-- but even then, the prices are so depressed: between today's field sizes, & the widespread past-posting going on-- & to boot the jockeys, being aware of say, a rail & speed + bias, may gun so fast out of the gate that the speed may still collapse)
So, that basically leaves an odds range of @ 6 to 12 to one for the place/win method; odds higher than that, especially in a large field, merit a win bet even less: exotics are called for then-- even if they have to be wheeled with the whole field.
Overtime i have drifted away from the win pool, to me it no longer carries much value-- both from mutuel price & bankroll velocity standpoints. Discounting longshot flyers, if i find 3/4 solid horses with no knocks or question marks, chances are they'll be one of the 3 morning line faves: i can either flat bet them to win & hope 1 or 2 win, squeezing out a small profit...OR i can show or place parlay all of them, multiplying the original bet by 3-6 times, depending on whether i up and pull a profit mid-series or let it all ride. I'm putting much less money in play and hopefully collecting significantly more.
Myself, I use a 2-1 place/win ratio as a base;
However, place/win bet may not even be advisable-- odds ranges & particular pool pays determine what way to bet:
assuming no pool anomalies, usually-- if a horse places only, the return is highest if instead all the funds are bet to show solely. This is usually so for 5-1 & lesser odds-- though the potential pool payoffs must be calculated: it there's enough of a difference between place / show, the place/win may work irregardless of odds.
btw heavy favorites are still very playable, all funds solely on place OR show, depending on payoff: i have no problem whatsoever with receiving a few cents less(up to about a dollar) than the win price for place or show.
(Note there is money to be made even at these low prices-- I hook them in parlays of 2, 3 or 4 at a time.
I'm just realistic about win %, & prefer cashing over half the time, even if for less-- the only win locks / fairly high % opportunities, besides trainer angles, i'm able to discern nowadays are the dominant run-style horse favored by corresponding bias-- but even then, the prices are so depressed: between today's field sizes, & the widespread past-posting going on-- & to boot the jockeys, being aware of say, a rail & speed + bias, may gun so fast out of the gate that the speed may still collapse)
So, that basically leaves an odds range of @ 6 to 12 to one for the place/win method; odds higher than that, especially in a large field, merit a win bet even less: exotics are called for then-- even if they have to be wheeled with the whole field.
Overtime i have drifted away from the win pool, to me it no longer carries much value-- both from mutuel price & bankroll velocity standpoints. Discounting longshot flyers, if i find 3/4 solid horses with no knocks or question marks, chances are they'll be one of the 3 morning line faves: i can either flat bet them to win & hope 1 or 2 win, squeezing out a small profit...OR i can show or place parlay all of them, multiplying the original bet by 3-6 times, depending on whether i up and pull a profit mid-series or let it all ride. I'm putting much less money in play and hopefully collecting significantly more.
