Expert picks and best bets: Can Josh Emmett halt Ilia Topuria's win streak? Will Burgos get the finish
ESPN PLUS $ MATERIALFormer UFC interim featherweight title challenger Josh Emmett returns to the Octagon on Saturday to face Ilia Topuria in the main event of this weekend's UFC Fight Night in Jacksonville (3 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN+, with prelims at 11:30 on ESPN/ESPN+).
Emmett, ranked No. 7 in ESPN's divisional rankings, was on a five-fight win streak before losing to Yair Rodriguez in his last fight at UFC 284 in February. Topuria, ranked No. 10, is undefeated as a pro with 13 wins. He enters the contest after beating Bryce Mitchell by second-round submission at UFC 282 in December.
On Friday night, the PFL will continue its second half of the regular season with the featherweights and lightweights at Overtime Elite Arena in Atlanta (9 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+, with prelims at 6 p.m. on ESPN+). The main event features last year's lightweight champion, Olivier Aubin-Mercier, taking on Anthony Romero. In the co-main event, Sadibou Sy, the 2022 PFL welterweight champ, will fight Shane Mitchell.
Brett Okamoto spoke to Xtreme Couture MMA coach Eric Nicksick to get his perspective on the UFC main event. ESPN's betting experts Reed Kuhn and Ian Parker add their insights and analysis on the main event and other intriguing bets they like on the card. Parker also provided his best bets from the PFL card.
Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.
Men's featherweight: Josh Emmett vs. Ilia Topuria
Xtreme Couture MMA coach, Eric Nicksick
Tale Of The Tape
| EMMETT | TOPURIA | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 38.3 | 26.4 |
| Height | 66.0 | 67.0 |
| Reach | 70.0 | 69.0 |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Last Fight | Feb. 11, 2023 | Dec. 10, 2022 |
How Topuria wins: Topuria reminds me of the expression "five-tool player" in baseball. He has all the skills to be a champion in this division. But in this fight, Topuria will want to showcase his IQ, speed, wrestling, and footwork. There's no reason for him to get into a brawl with Emmett. Can Topuria come out on top, brawling with Emmett? Yes. But why play with fire when Emmett can instantly end your night? I can see Topuria using more fast straight-line punching attacks, strikes that will beat Emmett to the punch down the middle when he's loading up for power -- like utilizing his jab to occupy the rear hand of Emmett, to try and help slow it down. The left head kick is also a great way to nullify a power puncher's favored hand because they are forced to use it to defend the kick. Lastly, sprinkle in some wrestling. This will tax Emmett's cardio and take some of the power out of punches.
X-factor: This is more for the fans and bettors. Recency bias in MMA is a real thing, especially when it comes to the odds makers. You don't have to look too far back to see Charles Oliveira as an underdog vs. Beneil Dariush. In this particular fight, the right guy is the favorite, but the value is on Emmett. Although Emmett didn't have a great showing in his last outing, much like Oliveira, it doesn't mean he's not capable of winning this fight. All it takes is one good shot from Emmett, and he has 25 minutes to find it. Now, I'm not saying bet the house on Emmett, but as a 3-to-1 underdog, he's worth a look. Strength of schedule matters in the fight game.
Prediction: Topuria should win this fight, but the value is definitely on Emmett.
Betting analysis
UFC Fight Night: Emmett Vs. Topuria
| Stand-up striking offense | Emmett | Topuria |
| Total knockdown ratio (Knockdowns/times knocked down) | 11:1 | 3:1 |
| Distance knockdown rate | 4.0% | 6.3% |
| Head jab accuracy | 20% | 25% |
| Head power accuracy | 29% | 41% |
| Standup strike ratio (Attempted vs. opp. attempted) | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Wrestling and grappling | ||
| TD Attempts per Min Standing/Clinch | 0.20 | 0.55 |
| Takedown Accuracy | 38% | 46% |
| Advances per takedown/top control | 0.5 | 3.2 |
| Opponent takedown attempts | 12 | 14 |
| Takedown defense | 58% | 93% |
| Share of fight time in ground control | 78% | 89% |
| Submission Attempts per Trip to Ground | 0.06 | 0.86 |
| Table compiled by Reed Kuhn |
With just 37 minutes of Octagon time, primarily against grapplers with poor striking skills, Topuria's performance metrics might be inflated. Meanwhile, Emmett is a game opponent on the feet with plenty of power in his hands.
The numbers favor Topuria, but not past -300, where the line currently sits. If anything, I'd take a small flyer on the underdog if the price is right. Otherwise, pass and see if Topuria really is the next big thing.
Parker: Fight to start Round 2. Topuria's striking improves with each fight. His striking is more dangerously because his opponents have to be even more concerned about his dominant wrestling. Topuria will be facing his stiffest challenge to date in Emmett. Emmett is a durable fighter and a good wrestler with tremendous knockout power. I don't see it happening quickly, but I think someone will get knocked out in this fight. The first round will be a feeling-out period, as both fighters will respect the other's power. I'm taking the fight to make it to the start of Round 2. I believe a knockout will happen between the third and fifth rounds.
Best bets on the rest of the card
Welterweight: Neil Magny vs. Phil Rowe
Kuhn: Magny to win (-160). This could be the rangiest pairing of welterweights ever, with a combined reach of 160.5 inches. But, while Magny won't have his usual range advantage, he will benefit from an opponent who could be vulnerable on the ground.Rowe's takedown defense is below average, and he's rarely in a dominant position on the mat. When Magny gets the chance, he can backpack opponents and nullify superior strikers. That combination is what the seasoned veteran needs against Rowe, whose level of competition is not nearly as impressive. For Rowe, his best shot at an upset is taking advantage of Magny's weathered chin. Play props accordingly.
Middleweight: Brendan Allen vs. Bruno Silva
Kuhn: Allen to win (-190). After joining the UFC via "Dana White's Contender Series" at age 23, Allen appears to be getting better despite already amassing an impressive record. Now 27, Allen boasts a much better resume than his opponent, Silva, and has a clear path to victory stylistically.Six of Silva's eight career losses were by submission, which is Allen's favorite way to win. While Silva has decent takedown defense, he has poor ground control. Silva has the lowest share of fight time in ground control of any fighter on the card. Prop hunters might find better value for Allen by submission.
Lightweight: Trevor Peek vs. Chepe Mariscal
Parker: Peek to win (-110); Under 1.5 Rounds. Don't blink if you're watching a fight involving Peek. He is undefeated, with all of his wins coming by knockout. There is no slowing down with Peek, he consistently moves forward and swings for the fence, and I expect this fight to be no different. Mariscal isn't much different, as 12 of his 20 fights have ended by finish, win or lose. I like Peek to get it done here, and love the under 1.5 even more.Best bets for PFL Regular Season: Lightweights and Welterweights
Rowe's takedown defense is below average, and he's rarely in a dominant position on the mat. When Magny gets the chance, he can backpack opponents and nullify superior strikers. That combination is what the seasoned veteran needs against Rowe, whose level of competition is not nearly as impressive. For Rowe, his best shot at an upset is taking advantage of Magny's weathered chin. Play props accordingly.Middleweight: Brendan Allen vs. Bruno Silva
Kuhn: Allen to win (-190). After joining the UFC via "Dana White's Contender Series" at age 23, Allen appears to be getting better despite already amassing an impressive record. Now 27, Allen boasts a much better resume than his opponent, Silva, and has a clear path to victory stylistically.Six of Silva's eight career losses were by submission, which is Allen's favorite way to win. While Silva has decent takedown defense, he has poor ground control. Silva has the lowest share of fight time in ground control of any fighter on the card. Prop hunters might find better value for Allen by submission.
Lightweight: Trevor Peek vs. Chepe Mariscal
Parker: Peek to win (-110); Under 1.5 Rounds. Don't blink if you're watching a fight involving Peek. He is undefeated, with all of his wins coming by knockout. There is no slowing down with Peek, he consistently moves forward and swings for the fence, and I expect this fight to be no different. Mariscal isn't much different, as 12 of his 20 fights have ended by finish, win or lose. I like Peek to get it done here, and love the under 1.5 even more.Best bets for PFL Regular Season: Lightweights and Welterweights
Parker: Sy to win inside the distance. Last season's welterweight champ, Sy, picked up where he left off with an outstanding performance in his first fight of the season, a second-round knockout of Jarrah Al-Silawi. He has another favorable matchup here against Mitchell. Unless Mitchell can get Sy to the mat, which has been proven difficult to do, look for the champ to get another finish and lock up a spot in the playoffs.
