1 STAR SELECTION (3.5% of Bankroll)
Fresno State +21 over TENNESSEE
The 12th-ranked Tennessee Volunteers open the season by hosting the Fresno State Bulldogs. The Vols' 8-5 record in 2002 was a huge disappointment in Knoxville, although injuries hit the team hard, as 19 starters combined to miss a total of 71 games. Tennessee is hoping QB Casey Clausen will be able to play this year without all of the injuries that hampered him a season ago. Clausen will need a lot of help from his backs and receivers as Tony Brown is the leading WR returning with just 39 catches. Tennessee does have its four top rushers back but they struggled to establish a consistent running attack a year ago. On the other side of the ball, the Volunteers have to be concerned with the fact that all four of last season's starting defensive linemen are gone. Tennessee did finish #5 in the nation in total defense a season ago, but a repeat performance will be very difficult with such an inexperienced front line.
Coach Pat Hill of Fresno State has once again loaded the team's schedule with some non-WAC, BCS heavyweights. Last season, the Bulldogs finished 9-5 overall, including a Silicon Valley Football Classic Bowl win on New Year's Day, over Georgia Tech. The good news Hill is that all of his skill players return. That includes sensational wideout and return specialist Bernard Berrian, who was given a medical redshirt following a knee injury at the beginning of 2002. Quarterback Paul Pinegar was the WAC Freshman of the Year in 2002, as he took over for the departed David Carr. He will miss this contest with an injury but the Bulldogs should still be in good hands. Fifth-year senior Jeff Grady, who was supposed to be the starter last year, before going down with an injury of his own, will run the offense. Both QB's will enjoy the support of a strong running game led by Rodney Davis. Make no mistake - this is an offensive rich team that will put points on the scoreboard. Fresno State is not known for its strong defensive play, but they can be a very physical, punishing team that makes big plays.
While Tennessee may be bigger, faster, and stronger overall, Fresno State will put up a fight as they always do. As good as Tennessee is, Fresno State has better skill players. The Vols can only dream of having receivers like Berrian, Marque Davis and Deandre Gilbert, while Rodney Davis is one of the best backs in the country that nobody talks about. Tennessee's passing game never clicked last year after losing star receiver Kelley Washington, and Tony Brown and Mark Jones have yet to prove that they are more than simply average. We don't expect instant offensive explosion from the Volunteers and they will be surprised by the Bulldogs tenacity. Fresno State loves to play the role of David in trying to knock off the Goliaths of college football. While a SU win here would be quite surprising, a spread cover is quite likely. FSU is 9-2 ATS in their 1st 2 road games of the season and 10-2 ATS as a non-conference underdog.
We see great value in this line, as our power ratings show Tennessee no more than 10 points better at home than Fresno State. The linesmakers have adjusted the spread to account for the Fresno State QB substitution, but Grady will be more than a fine fill-in for Pinegar, as he could easily start for many teams in the nation, and we look for him to have a fine game here. Tennessee might very well be outstanding this season, but Fresno State always opens strong and this year should be no exception. The Vols will probably end up pulling off the hard fought win in the fourth quarter, but by no more than 2 TDs, as Fresno State covers this big number.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: TENNESSEE 34 FRESNO STATE 21
Fresno State +21 over TENNESSEE
The 12th-ranked Tennessee Volunteers open the season by hosting the Fresno State Bulldogs. The Vols' 8-5 record in 2002 was a huge disappointment in Knoxville, although injuries hit the team hard, as 19 starters combined to miss a total of 71 games. Tennessee is hoping QB Casey Clausen will be able to play this year without all of the injuries that hampered him a season ago. Clausen will need a lot of help from his backs and receivers as Tony Brown is the leading WR returning with just 39 catches. Tennessee does have its four top rushers back but they struggled to establish a consistent running attack a year ago. On the other side of the ball, the Volunteers have to be concerned with the fact that all four of last season's starting defensive linemen are gone. Tennessee did finish #5 in the nation in total defense a season ago, but a repeat performance will be very difficult with such an inexperienced front line.
Coach Pat Hill of Fresno State has once again loaded the team's schedule with some non-WAC, BCS heavyweights. Last season, the Bulldogs finished 9-5 overall, including a Silicon Valley Football Classic Bowl win on New Year's Day, over Georgia Tech. The good news Hill is that all of his skill players return. That includes sensational wideout and return specialist Bernard Berrian, who was given a medical redshirt following a knee injury at the beginning of 2002. Quarterback Paul Pinegar was the WAC Freshman of the Year in 2002, as he took over for the departed David Carr. He will miss this contest with an injury but the Bulldogs should still be in good hands. Fifth-year senior Jeff Grady, who was supposed to be the starter last year, before going down with an injury of his own, will run the offense. Both QB's will enjoy the support of a strong running game led by Rodney Davis. Make no mistake - this is an offensive rich team that will put points on the scoreboard. Fresno State is not known for its strong defensive play, but they can be a very physical, punishing team that makes big plays.
While Tennessee may be bigger, faster, and stronger overall, Fresno State will put up a fight as they always do. As good as Tennessee is, Fresno State has better skill players. The Vols can only dream of having receivers like Berrian, Marque Davis and Deandre Gilbert, while Rodney Davis is one of the best backs in the country that nobody talks about. Tennessee's passing game never clicked last year after losing star receiver Kelley Washington, and Tony Brown and Mark Jones have yet to prove that they are more than simply average. We don't expect instant offensive explosion from the Volunteers and they will be surprised by the Bulldogs tenacity. Fresno State loves to play the role of David in trying to knock off the Goliaths of college football. While a SU win here would be quite surprising, a spread cover is quite likely. FSU is 9-2 ATS in their 1st 2 road games of the season and 10-2 ATS as a non-conference underdog.
We see great value in this line, as our power ratings show Tennessee no more than 10 points better at home than Fresno State. The linesmakers have adjusted the spread to account for the Fresno State QB substitution, but Grady will be more than a fine fill-in for Pinegar, as he could easily start for many teams in the nation, and we look for him to have a fine game here. Tennessee might very well be outstanding this season, but Fresno State always opens strong and this year should be no exception. The Vols will probably end up pulling off the hard fought win in the fourth quarter, but by no more than 2 TDs, as Fresno State covers this big number.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: TENNESSEE 34 FRESNO STATE 21
