2-0 with my initial post on Thursday with BYU and the Under. Hopefully I can keep it up and give a good contribution to the forum.
These are my plays for now (might add 1-2 more):
Duke (+16)
The Blue Devils return 11 starters on offense and 9 on defense and both kickers. They return the ACC's top tackler, LB Ryan Fowler, the ACC's top receiver (TD receptions), Khary Sharpe and the top punter, Trey McDonald. Plus, they have the best RB tandem in the ACC, Chris Douglas and Alex Wade.
Duke held UVA to 2 total rushing yards last year and outgained the Cavs 416-317 with a 24-17 1st Down edge.
Duke had their usual horrible record last year (2-10), but they lost 5 games by leass than a TD. Both teams have experience, but UVA is one of the youngest teams in D-1 and Duke is one of the oldest. I expect the older guys to show more maturity and make less mistakes.
UVA doesn't seem to blow teams out. In 6 of their last 11 wins, they have had to come back from a halftime deficit.
The Cavs are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home openers and 2-7 ATS versus Duke in the last 9 series meetings. Duke is 9-3 ATS in their L 12 road openers and were 5-1 ATS as an away dog last season.
Clemson (+3)
The trends all favor Georgia in this one, but other intangibles go the home team's way.
Georgia has to replace their entire OL from last year and they have a very thin secondary. They even had to move a starting LB (Thomas Davis) to the secondary.
Clemson went 3-2 last year with Charlie Whitehurst (a true frosh) starting at QB. They have 8 starters back on offense, which was hurt by injuries and suspensions last year. This year the tables are turned and Georgia is missing a ton of guys. At least 4 defensive starters and 8 guys in all on the "D" 2-deep are out for this one.
Plus, I don't like the fact that Richt is going to play 2 QB's. David Greene should take all the snaps. He was the SEC Player of the Year last year. I honestly think that does something to a player's psyche when he wins those awards and can't even be the complete outright guy under center.
Another intriguing prospect is that John Lovett, who was Auburn's DC when they held UGA to 17 points in 2001 and 203 total yards in 2002, is now Clemson's DC.
Tommy Bowden is only 29-20 in 5 years at Clemson and he needs to win some big games. This could be a statement game for the fans in Death Valley.
South Florida (+17)
USF is 13-4 ATS since they moved up to Division IA. They also have 14 starters back including all 5 on the OL, which allowed just 19 sacks in 11 games.
Meanwhile, Bama usually plays down to their competition. They are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 season openers.
I don't think Bama will be bad by any stretch this year, but they will be up and down. They have only had a month to learn Mike Shula's offensive system. QB Brodie Croyle is only a sophomore and he has had to learn 3 offensive schemes (Fran, Price and now Shula).
The Tide also lost 3 DL to the NFL Draft in the spring and are also fairly inexperienced in the secondary. Their special teams also concern me. They were near the bottom of the SEC in both kickoff returns, punt returns and net punting. They also were dead last in the SEC in penalties.
I think USF will keep this close most of the way. Plus, there is always potential for a backdoor cover (i.e. at Oklahoma last year). In addition, Alabama gets the #1 Sooners in a huge revenge game next week in Tuscaloosa.
Nebraska (-7')
The whole world is on Oklahoma St, so I have to go contrarian here.
Not only is this a huge revenge game for Big Red (had an 18-game win streak snapped), but they have only gone 7-9 overall since their devastating loss in Boulder in '01.
I think the Huskers will be much better this year. Lord only completed 46% of his passes last season, but Crouch only connected on 48% his first year as well.
Even with a disappointing 7-7 mark last year, NU was still ranked #4 in the country in rushing the ball and covered 4 of their 5 as a home favorite LY (Troy St was the only non-cover).
They also have better special teams than OSU. Nebraska ranked in the top 5 in both net punting and punt returns. They also block their fair share of kicks.
Even though OSU had a nice 8-5 year last year with some big wins, they were still 1-4 on the road and got blown out at K-State and Texas Tech.
I think this line is a gift and Nebraska wins by 2 TD's.
Auburn (-3')
Seeing a lot of action coming on USC here, but I think Auburn has more to prove. Tuberville has yet to completely win the War Eagle faithful over whereas Pete Carroll has Trojan Nation is his back pocket.
USC beat Auburn at home last year, but may not have if Carnell Williams did not cramp up on the first couple of plays in the second half. He had 94 yards on 21 carries with a TD in the first half alone against a USC rushing defense that finished 6th in the nation last year.
Auburn is loaded in the backfield and has a great OL back. I expect them to have some success running the ball on USC.
I also don't think USC has much of a running game and don't expect to see a lot of big plays against a quick Auburn "D" that returns 15 of their top 20 tacklers and 8 starters.
Auburn is 6-2 ATS in season openers and 5-2 ATS at home in September since 2000.
I have to take a great defense versus an inexperienced QB.
Colorado (+2)
This seems a like a really small line and Colorado State looks way too easy here.
The dog is 10-3 ATS the last 13 in this series.
This is a big game for Barnett since he is only 1-3 versus Lubick and CSU and has lost his season opener 4 straight years.
According to various newspaper reports, Barnett actually took time out of every spring workout to prepare for CSU. Colorado has to replace 4 out of 5 OL starters and their starting RB. Plus, they are starting a QB (Joel Klatt) who played 3 years in minor league baseball and was not highly recruited. Plus, they lost arguably their best RB in Marcus Houston to Colorado State and he will play in this one.
Everything seems to favor CSU here, so why are they not favored by more than -1', -2 or -2'. Something smells funny here. I go with the Buffs outright. Plus, Barnett is 12-4 ATS as a dog at CU (8-3 Road/Neutral).
Mississippi State (+4)
MSU got blown out in Eugene LY, but had a lot of adversity since Kevin Fant was suspended 2 days before the game.
I don't expect MSU to have a complete turnaround, but they will be more competitive with the addition of 2 new coordinators.
I think weather will be a factor here and you may see Oregon get gassed late in the game in that Southern humidity.
Plus, Oregon's pass defense still scares me. They were #115 in the nation last year and gave up 291.2 yards per game. Granted, Fant and York are not Andrew Walter or Carson Palmer but they can still move the ball.
Oregon also has a QB controversy with Jason Fife and Kellen Clemens. Like Phil Simms says, when a coach says you have 2 good QB's, you usually don't have any. Oregon will be forced to throw a lot with a huge loss in the running game. Their RB's have combined career total of 480 yards. I think that will lead to a lot of turnovers against a talented secondary that returns 3 starters and one of the top freshman DB's in the country (Quentin Culberson). MSU also returns 3 of 4 starters on the DL.
I think this goes to the wire with MSU pulling a late upset.
May add more.
These are my plays for now (might add 1-2 more):
Duke (+16)
The Blue Devils return 11 starters on offense and 9 on defense and both kickers. They return the ACC's top tackler, LB Ryan Fowler, the ACC's top receiver (TD receptions), Khary Sharpe and the top punter, Trey McDonald. Plus, they have the best RB tandem in the ACC, Chris Douglas and Alex Wade.
Duke held UVA to 2 total rushing yards last year and outgained the Cavs 416-317 with a 24-17 1st Down edge.
Duke had their usual horrible record last year (2-10), but they lost 5 games by leass than a TD. Both teams have experience, but UVA is one of the youngest teams in D-1 and Duke is one of the oldest. I expect the older guys to show more maturity and make less mistakes.
UVA doesn't seem to blow teams out. In 6 of their last 11 wins, they have had to come back from a halftime deficit.
The Cavs are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home openers and 2-7 ATS versus Duke in the last 9 series meetings. Duke is 9-3 ATS in their L 12 road openers and were 5-1 ATS as an away dog last season.
Clemson (+3)
The trends all favor Georgia in this one, but other intangibles go the home team's way.
Georgia has to replace their entire OL from last year and they have a very thin secondary. They even had to move a starting LB (Thomas Davis) to the secondary.
Clemson went 3-2 last year with Charlie Whitehurst (a true frosh) starting at QB. They have 8 starters back on offense, which was hurt by injuries and suspensions last year. This year the tables are turned and Georgia is missing a ton of guys. At least 4 defensive starters and 8 guys in all on the "D" 2-deep are out for this one.
Plus, I don't like the fact that Richt is going to play 2 QB's. David Greene should take all the snaps. He was the SEC Player of the Year last year. I honestly think that does something to a player's psyche when he wins those awards and can't even be the complete outright guy under center.
Another intriguing prospect is that John Lovett, who was Auburn's DC when they held UGA to 17 points in 2001 and 203 total yards in 2002, is now Clemson's DC.
Tommy Bowden is only 29-20 in 5 years at Clemson and he needs to win some big games. This could be a statement game for the fans in Death Valley.
South Florida (+17)
USF is 13-4 ATS since they moved up to Division IA. They also have 14 starters back including all 5 on the OL, which allowed just 19 sacks in 11 games.
Meanwhile, Bama usually plays down to their competition. They are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 season openers.
I don't think Bama will be bad by any stretch this year, but they will be up and down. They have only had a month to learn Mike Shula's offensive system. QB Brodie Croyle is only a sophomore and he has had to learn 3 offensive schemes (Fran, Price and now Shula).
The Tide also lost 3 DL to the NFL Draft in the spring and are also fairly inexperienced in the secondary. Their special teams also concern me. They were near the bottom of the SEC in both kickoff returns, punt returns and net punting. They also were dead last in the SEC in penalties.
I think USF will keep this close most of the way. Plus, there is always potential for a backdoor cover (i.e. at Oklahoma last year). In addition, Alabama gets the #1 Sooners in a huge revenge game next week in Tuscaloosa.
Nebraska (-7')
The whole world is on Oklahoma St, so I have to go contrarian here.
Not only is this a huge revenge game for Big Red (had an 18-game win streak snapped), but they have only gone 7-9 overall since their devastating loss in Boulder in '01.
I think the Huskers will be much better this year. Lord only completed 46% of his passes last season, but Crouch only connected on 48% his first year as well.
Even with a disappointing 7-7 mark last year, NU was still ranked #4 in the country in rushing the ball and covered 4 of their 5 as a home favorite LY (Troy St was the only non-cover).
They also have better special teams than OSU. Nebraska ranked in the top 5 in both net punting and punt returns. They also block their fair share of kicks.
Even though OSU had a nice 8-5 year last year with some big wins, they were still 1-4 on the road and got blown out at K-State and Texas Tech.
I think this line is a gift and Nebraska wins by 2 TD's.
Auburn (-3')
Seeing a lot of action coming on USC here, but I think Auburn has more to prove. Tuberville has yet to completely win the War Eagle faithful over whereas Pete Carroll has Trojan Nation is his back pocket.
USC beat Auburn at home last year, but may not have if Carnell Williams did not cramp up on the first couple of plays in the second half. He had 94 yards on 21 carries with a TD in the first half alone against a USC rushing defense that finished 6th in the nation last year.
Auburn is loaded in the backfield and has a great OL back. I expect them to have some success running the ball on USC.
I also don't think USC has much of a running game and don't expect to see a lot of big plays against a quick Auburn "D" that returns 15 of their top 20 tacklers and 8 starters.
Auburn is 6-2 ATS in season openers and 5-2 ATS at home in September since 2000.
I have to take a great defense versus an inexperienced QB.
Colorado (+2)
This seems a like a really small line and Colorado State looks way too easy here.
The dog is 10-3 ATS the last 13 in this series.
This is a big game for Barnett since he is only 1-3 versus Lubick and CSU and has lost his season opener 4 straight years.
According to various newspaper reports, Barnett actually took time out of every spring workout to prepare for CSU. Colorado has to replace 4 out of 5 OL starters and their starting RB. Plus, they are starting a QB (Joel Klatt) who played 3 years in minor league baseball and was not highly recruited. Plus, they lost arguably their best RB in Marcus Houston to Colorado State and he will play in this one.
Everything seems to favor CSU here, so why are they not favored by more than -1', -2 or -2'. Something smells funny here. I go with the Buffs outright. Plus, Barnett is 12-4 ATS as a dog at CU (8-3 Road/Neutral).
Mississippi State (+4)
MSU got blown out in Eugene LY, but had a lot of adversity since Kevin Fant was suspended 2 days before the game.
I don't expect MSU to have a complete turnaround, but they will be more competitive with the addition of 2 new coordinators.
I think weather will be a factor here and you may see Oregon get gassed late in the game in that Southern humidity.
Plus, Oregon's pass defense still scares me. They were #115 in the nation last year and gave up 291.2 yards per game. Granted, Fant and York are not Andrew Walter or Carson Palmer but they can still move the ball.
Oregon also has a QB controversy with Jason Fife and Kellen Clemens. Like Phil Simms says, when a coach says you have 2 good QB's, you usually don't have any. Oregon will be forced to throw a lot with a huge loss in the running game. Their RB's have combined career total of 480 yards. I think that will lead to a lot of turnovers against a talented secondary that returns 3 starters and one of the top freshman DB's in the country (Quentin Culberson). MSU also returns 3 of 4 starters on the DL.
I think this goes to the wire with MSU pulling a late upset.
May add more.
