Saturday 9/23/17 ... Comps / Bonus Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Pesos]

Post Bonus Plays / requests / comments/ trends and concerns here.

 

[Pesos]

Soccer

England - Premier League

10am ET

Everton v Bournemouth

Referee: Martin Atkinson

Last Head-To-Heads at Everton:
6-3 (Everton win)
2-1 (Everton win)
3-2 (Everton win)
5-0 (Everton win)

Recent Form:
Everton: 1-4-1
Bournemouth: 2-3-1

KEY STAT:The last four league meetings have seen 19 goals

EXPERT VERDICT:Bournemouth finally got the victory their play has deserved against Brighton and the Cherries can build on that by holding their own at shaky Everton. There have been goals galore in the Premier League matches between these two and with confidence up the visitors can make a game of it.

RECOMMENDATION: Both Teams To Score (2)

 

[Pesos]

Soccer

England - Premier League

10am ET

Swansea v Watford

Referee: Lee Mason

Last Head-To-Heads at Swansea:
0-0
1- 0 (Swansea win)
1-1
1-1

Recent Form:
Swansea: 3-2-1
Watford: 2-2-2

KEY STAT:Just one of the last ten meetings has featured more than two goals

EXPERT VERDICT: Swansea disappointed in their last home game against Newcastle and life may not get better when the Hornets head to Wales. A thumping by red-hot Man City shouldn’t dent Watford’s top-ten ambitions and they have already won away at Bournemouth and Southampton.

RECOMMENDATION: Watford (2)

 

[Pesos]

Soccer

England - Premier League

10am ET

Manchester City v Crystal Palace

Referee: Neil Swarbrick

Last Head-To-Heads at Manchester City:
5-0 (Man City win)
4-0 (Man City win)
5-1 (Man City win)
3-0 (Man City win)

Recent Form:
Manchester City: 5-0-1
Crystal Palace: 2-4

KEY STAT: City conceded in seven of ten home games against bottom-half sides last season

EXPERT VERDICT: Crystal Palace are sure to improve given the boost of a new man in the dugout and return to more familiar tactics, but nicking a result at the Etihad should remain beyond Roy Hodgson’s side. They could grab a goal however, as for all City’s attacking flair they remain vulnerable in defence.

RECOMMENDATION: Manchester City to win & Both Teams to Score (2)

 

[Pesos]

Soccer

England - Premier League

10am ET

Southampton v Manchester United

Referee: Craig Pawson

Last Head-To-Heads at Southampton:
0-0
2-3 (Man Utd Win)
1-2 (Man Utd Win)
1-1

Recent Form:
Southampton: 2-2-2
Manchester United: 5-0-1

KEY STAT: Manchester United have won on eight of their last 12 league visits to Southampton

EXPERT VERDICT: It has been an indifferent start to the season for the Saints, who have failed to score in three of their five league games. Manchester United have an excellent record away at Southampton and can continue their fine start to 2017-18, even if Paul Pogba is ruled out.

RECOMMENDATION: Manchester United (5)

 

[Pesos]

Soccer

England - Premier League

10am ET

Stoke v Chelsea

Referee: Mike Dean

Last Head-To-Heads at Stoke:
1-2 (Chelsea win)
1-0 (Stoke win)
1-1
0-2 (Chelsea win)

Recent Form:
Stoke: 2-2-2
Chelsea: 5-0-1

KEY STAT: Chelsea have failed to score in just two of their nine Premier League visits to Stoke

EXPERT VERDICT: Manchester United and Arsenal have already had problems at Stoke this season and champions Chelsea may not have everything their own way. The Potters look to have plenty of forward force and should put up another strong show, so expect both teams to find the target.

RECOMMENDATION: Both Teams To Score (3)

 

[Pesos]

Soccer

England - Premier League

10am ET

Burnley v Huddersfield

Referee: Chris Kavanagh

Last Head-To-Heads at Burnley:
2-1 (Burnley win)
3-2 (Burnley win)
0-1 (Huddersfield win)
1-0 (Burnley win)

Recent Form:
Burnley: 2-1-3
Huddersfield: 2-2-2

KEY STAT: Burnley had a W6 D1 L1 record at home to the bottom nine last season

EXPERT VERDICT: Burnley have ridden their luck on a couple of occasions this term but can overpower the Terriers. Huddersfield have kicked off their debut Premier League campaign in solid style but the Clarets have been even better, taking five points off Tottenham, Chelsea and Liverpool.

RECOMMENDATION: Burnley (2)

 

[Pesos]

Soccer

England - Premier League

1230pm ET

Leicester v Liverpool

Referee: Anthony Taylor

Last Head-To-Heads at Leicester:
2-0 (Leicester win)
3-1 (Leicester win)
2-0 (Leicester win)
1-3 (Liverpool win)

Recent Form:
Leicester: 3-2-1
Liverpool: 2-2-2

KEY STAT: Both teams have scored in four of the last six meetings

EXPERT VERDICT: There are likely to be goals in this clash with both sides conceding nine goals from their opening five league games. It was honours even last season with Leicester winning 3-1 at home and the Reds winning 4-1 at Anfield, and something similar could be on the cards in this contest. Both teams have scored in four of the last six meetings and there have been three goals or more in five of the last eight league contests. Even with Sadio Mane suspended Liverpool should give the Foxes a serious test. However, in the home ranks, Jamie Vardy will be desperate for a run at this dodgy Liverpool rearguard.

RECOMMENDATION: Both Teams To Score (3)

 

[Pesos]

Soccer

Germany - Bundesliga

1230pm ET

Borussia Dortmund v Mgladbach

Last Head-To-Heads at B Dortmund:
4-1 (B Dortmund win)
4-0 (B Dortmund win)
1-0 (B Dortmund win)
1-2 (Mgladbach win)

Recent Form:
Borussia Dortmund: 4-1-1
Mgladbach: 3-1-2

KEY STAT: Gladbach have conceded a goal in the 17th minute or earlier in three of their last four games

EXPERT VERDICT: Borussia Dortmund are yet to concede a goal after five Bundesliga games and they should extend their impressive start to the season at home to Borussia Monchengladbach. The visitors' two away trips this term both ended 2-2 but an open game will suit Dortmund down to the ground and they can take charge before half-time, as they have done in all four of their league wins.

RECOMMENDATION: Dortmund-Dortmund Double Result (3)

 

[Pesos]

Soccer

Portugal - Premiera Liga

1:15pm ET

Moreirense v Sporting Lisbon

Last Head-To-Heads at Moreirense:
2-3 (Sporting Lisbon win)
0-1 (Sporting Lisbon win)
1-4 (Sporting Lisbon win)
2-2

Recent Form:
Moreirense: 1-3-2
Sporting Lisbon: 6-0

KEY STAT: Sporting have scored in each of their last 26 league games

EXPERT VERDICT: Last season's thrilling finish to stay up has been forgotten at Moreirense, who are struggling again. The boys from Braga have failed to score in four of their last five and have to fear the worst preparing to shackle the unbeaten Lions. Jorge Jesus's men have won six out of six in the league – and won a thriller at Olympiakos in the Champions League – and are scoring loads.

RECOMMENDATION: Sporting-Sporting Double Result (2)

 

[Pesos]

Soccer

Italy - Serie A

2:45pm ET

Juventus v Torino

Last Head-To-Heads at Juventus:
1-1
4-0 (Juventus win)
2-1 (Juventus win)
2-1 (Juventus win)

Recent Form:
Juventus: 5-1
Torino: 4-0-2

KEY STAT: Juventus have won six of their last seven home league games to nil

EXPERT VERDICT: Napoli's blistering start to the season means Juventus are second in the table on goal difference despite a perfect five wins out of five. The champions' city rivals Torino are also unbeaten although they are yet to face any of Serie A's big hitters and their defence may struggle to contain a rampant Paulo Dybala, who has ten goals in seven games in all competitions this term and also takes Juve's penalties.

RECOMMENDATION: P Dybala to score (2)

 

[Pesos]

Soccer

Spain - La Liga

2:45pm ET

Girona v Barcelona

Last Head-To-Heads at Girona:
Nona

Recent Form:
Girona: 1-3-2
Barcelona: 6-0

KEY STAT: Girona have conceded only one first-half goal in five La Liga games this season

EXPERT VERDICT: After losing Neymar in the summer, Barcelona could scarcely have believed they would be seven points clear of champions Real Madrid after just five games in La Liga. They aren't expected to slip up at neighbours Girona but the hosts, who drew at home with Atletico Madrid and lost only 1-0 to Seville, may keep things respectable

RECOMMENDATION: Draw-Barcelona double result (1)

 

[Pesos]

Soccer

Portugal - Premiera Liga

3:30pm ET

Benfica v Pacos Ferreira

Last Head-To-Heads at Benfica:
3-0 (Benfica win)
3-0 (Benfica win)
2-0 (Benfica win)
3-1 (Benfica win)

Recent Form:
Benfica: 3-2-1
Pacos Ferreira: 1-2-3

KEY STAT: Pacos are the only team in the Primeira Liga yet to boast a half-time lead

EXPERT VERDICT: Benfica have slipped off the pace in recent weeks and on current form are hard to fancy at really short odds. They haven't kept a clean sheet in five and they may well struggle to break down a Pacos side, who beat Vitoria 1-0 last time out for a first win of the season.

RECOMMENDATION: Draw (1)

 

[Pesos]

National League

Cardinals @ Pirates
Lynn is 1-1, 4.80 in his last three starts; under is 4-1 in his last five. He is 2-1, 3.32 against the Pirates this year. St Louis is 6-10 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 15-14-2

Cole is 0-3, 5.04 in his last four starts; under is 4-1 in his last five. He is 1-1, 2.50 in three starts vs St Louis this year. Pirates are 6-7 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-14-7

Cardinals won their last four games; over is 4-3 in their last seven games. Pittsburgh lost eight of last nine games; under is 13-3 in their last 16 games.

Nationals @ Mets
Strasburg is 4-0, 0.31 in his last four starts; under is 6-1-1 in his last eight. He is 1-1, 2.33 in three starts vs NY this season. Nationals are 11-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-10-2

Syndergaard is going to pitch the first inning only in this game, so no point listing his stats. It will be his first appearance since April 30. Harvey will pitch after that; he is 1-3, 13.19 in his last four starts. Over is 4-0-1 in Harvey’s last five starts.

Washington won three of last five games; under is 7-3-2 in their last 12 games. Mets are 3-8 in their last 11 games (over 8-3).

Phillies @ Braves
Alvarez allowed four runs in five IP (95 PT) in his first start since 2015. Phillies’ first 5-inning record with him: 1-0

Teheran is 4-1, 2.25 in his last five starts; under is 6-1-2 in his last nine. He is 1-2, 7.71 vs Philly this season. Braves are 4-9 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-11-5

Phillies are 7-4 in their last 11 games; under is 5-1-2 in their last eight. Atlanta lost five of last eight games; under is 6-2 in their last eight games.

Cubs @ Brewers
Hendricks is 3-1, 2.65 in his last five starts; his last four starts stayed under. He is 1-1, 3.68 in four starts vs Milwaukee this year. Cubs are 4-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-6-4

Suter is 1-0, 4.50 in his last five starts (under 7-3-2). Milwaukee is 5-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-3-1

Cubs won nine of last ten games; under is 4-1-1 in their last six. Milwaukee lost last three games, all in its opponent’s last at-bat; over is 4-1-1 in their last six home games.

Marlins @ Diamondbacks
Peters is 0-2, 5.40 in four starts this year (over 3-1). Miami lost all four of his starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-2

Walker is 3-1, 2.51 in his last five starts; under is 4-2 in his last six. Arizona is 5-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-9-6

Marlins won four of last six games; their last nine road games went over. Arizona lost three of last five games; under is 5-3 in their last eight games.

Rockies @ Padres
Bettis is 1-3, 9.58 in his last five starts (under 6-1). Colorado is 1-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-4-1

Chacin is 1-1, 4.64 in his last four starts; under is 4-2 in his last six. He is 0-1, 6.10 in two starts vs Colorado this year. San Diego is 9-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-16-3

Colorado lost four of its last four games; under is 7-1 in their last eight games. San Diego won four of its last six games (under 7-3).

Giants @ Dodgers
Bumgarner is 0-4, 5.40 in his last four starts; under is 3-1-1 in his last five. Giants are 1-7 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-9-4

Ryu is 0-1, 4.30 in his last three starts; under is 5-2-1 in his last eight. LA is 7-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-10-4

Giants won three of their last four games; under is 7-1 in their last eight games. Dodgers are 7-15 in their last 22 games; over is 5-3 in their last eight home games. LA clinched the NL West title last night.

American League

Rays @ Orioles
Odorizzi is 3-1, 4.22 in his last four starts (under 4-0). He is 1-0, 6.10 in two starts vs Baltimore this year. Rays are 5-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-10-4

Hellickson is 0-3, 11.81 in his last four starts; over is 6-1 in his last seven. Orioles are 3-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-6-1

Rays lost six of last ten games; five of their last six road games stayed under. Baltimore lost 13 of last 16 games; over is 6-2 in their last eight home games.

New York @ Toronto
Gray is 1-3, 4.38 in his last four starts (under 7-2). New York is 1-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-5-1

Biagini is 0-5, 7.41 in his last seven starts; under is 4-1 in his last five. Toronto is 2-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-9-1

New York won seven of last nine games; under is 4-1-1 in their last six road games. Toronto lost three of last five games; under is 8-2-1 in their last 11 games.

Twins @ Tigers
Santana is 2-1, 3.90 in his last five starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. He is 0-1, 9.72 in two starts vs Detroit this year. Twins are 9-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 17-7-7

Boyd had a no-hitter in 9th inning in his last start, but he is 1-4, 4.86 in his last six starts; over is 8-4-2 in his last 14 starts. Detroit is 3-8 in his home starts — their first 5-inning record with him: 6-11-6

Twins lost five of last eight games; under is 6-3-1 in their last ten. Detroit is 2-12 in its last 14 games; over is 10-1-1 in their last 12 home games.

Angels @ Astros
Norris threw two shutout innings in his only ’17 start; this is a bullpen game for the Angels — their first 5-inning record with him: 0-0-1

Morton is 2-1, 3.38 in his last three starts; over is 5-2 in his last seven. Houston is 9-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-7-2

Angels lost their last five games; their last five road games stayed under. Houston won seven of its last eight games; under is 13-3 in their last 16 home games.

Royals @ While Sox
Duffy is 0-3, 6.43 in his last five starts; under is 7-3 in his last ten. He is 0-3, 9.56 vs Chicago this year. Royals are 5-8 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-10-4

Covey is 0-3, 10.03 in his last three starts (over 4-4-2). Chicago is 2-0 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-7-1

Royals are 3-6 in their last nine games; under is 7-3 in their last ten games. White Sox lost three of last five games; over is 5-1-1 in their last seven home games.

Rangers @ A’s
Gonzalez is 1-1, 10.45 in three starts for Texas (over 2-1). Rangers won both his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-1

Manaea is 3-2, 5.13 in his last five starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. Oakland is 7-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-13-4

Rangers won four of their last five games; under is 5-1 in their last six games. Oakland is 11-3 in its last 14 games; over is 8-2 in their last ten home games.

Indians @ Mariners
Carrasco is 4-0, 1.51 in his last five starts; over is 9-3 in his last 12. Indians are 12-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 21-7-2

Moore is 0-3, 5.40 in his last four starts; under is 6-1 in his last seven. Seattle is 1-5 in his home starts — their first 5-inning record with him: 1-5-2

Indians are 27-2 in their last 29 games; over is 3-2 in their last five road tilts. Seattle lost six of its last seven games; under is 13-4 in their last 17.

Interleague

Red Sox @ Reds
Rodriguez is 1-1, 3.06 in his last three starts; under is 8-1 in his last nine. Boston is 0-6 in his last six road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-12

Stephenson is 5-1, 3.69 in his last seven starts; over is 4-1-1 in his last six. Reds are 4-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-2-2

Boston won seven of last eight games; under is 9-4 in their last 13 road games. Cincinnati lost its last four games, three of which went over.

Record with this pitcher starting

National League
StL-Pitt: Lynn 14-17; Cole 16-15
Wsh-NY: Strasburg 20-6; Syndergaard 2-3
Phil-Atl: Alvarez 0-1; Teheran 14-16
Chi-Mil: Hendricks 11-11; Suter 7-5
Mia-Az: Peters 0-4; Walker 14-12
Colo-SD: Bettis 3-4; Chacin 16-14
SF-LA: Bumgarner 3-13; Ryu 11-11

American League
TB-Balt: Odorizzi 11-15; Hellickson 4-5
NY-Tor: Gray 3-6; Biagini 5-11
Minn-Det: Santana 18-13; Boyd 9-14
LA-Hst: Norris 1-0; Morton 14-9
KC-Chi: Duffy 10-12; Covey 3-7
Tex-A’s: Gonzalez 2-1; Manaea 13-15
Clev-Sea: Carrasco 22-8; Moore 2-6

Interleague
Bos-Cin: Rodriguez 12-10; Stephenson 6-3

Pitchers allowing a run in first inning

National League
StL-Pitt: Lynn 9-31; Cole 10-31
Wsh-NY: Strasburg 4-26; Syndergaard 2-5
Phil-Atl: Alvarez 0-1; Teheran 9-30
Chi-Mil: Hendricks 7-22; Suter 1-12
Mia-Az: Peters 2-4; Walker 7-26
Colo-SD: Bettis 3-7; Chacin 11-30
SF-LA: Bumgarner 4-16; Ryu 8-22

American League
TB-Balt: Odorizzi 7-26; Hellickson 2-9
NY-Tor: Gray 2-9; Biagini 6-16
Minn-Det: Santana 7-31; Boyd 8-23
LA-Hst: Norris 0-1; Morton 3-23
KC-Chi: Duffy 5-22; Covey 7-10
Tex-A’s: Gonzalez 1-3; Manaea 10-28
Clev-Sea: Carrasco 5-30; Moore 1-8

Interleague
Bos-Cin: Rodriguez 6-22; Stephenson 3-9

Umpires

National League
StL-Pitt: Over is 5-2 in last seven Miller games.
Wsh-NY: Over is 6-3 in last nine Foster games.
Phil-Atl: Five of last six Vanover games went over.
Chi-Mil: Over is 6-3 in last nine Guccione games.
Mia-Az: Over is 7-4-2 in last 13 Woodring games.
Colo-SD: Under is 4-1-1 in last six Blakney games.
SF-LA: Underdogs won five of last six Everitt games.

American League
TB-Balt: Underdogs won five of last seven Morales games.
NY-Tor: Under is 9-3 in last dozen Bucknor games.
Minn-Det: Favorites won eight of last ten Randazzo games.
LA-Hst: Road team won last seven HGibson games.
KC-Chi: Under is 7-2-1 in last ten Emmel games.
Tex-A’s: Four of last five Cuzzi games stayed under.
Clev-Sea: Under is 8-4 in last dozen Gibson games.

Interleague
Bos-Cin: Favorites won last six West games.

Interleague play

NL @ AL– 84-57 AL, favorites -$280
AL @ NL– 73-70 NL, favorites +$216
Total: 154-130 AL, favorites -$64

Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 71-68-4
AL @ NL: Over 74-62-8
Total: Over 145-130-12

 

[Pesos]

MLB Betting Picks & Tips

Chicago (-135) at Milwaukee; Total: 9

Another tough loss for the Brewers yesterday, as they fell by one run to the Cubs. They also lost a game in the Wild Card chase since Colorado won, so now the Rockies have a two-game lead over Milwaukee in the playoff push. Kyle Hendricks takes the hill today for the Cubs and Brent Suter will look to pitch the Brewers to a win.

Since returning from the DL, Kyle Hendricks looks more like last year’s version and more like what we have come to expect. The right-hander owns a 2.42 ERA with a 3.77 FIP and a 3.78 xFIP. He’s struck out 57 and walked 17 in his 67 innings of work. He’s carrying an 88.3 percent LOB%, though, so there are some clear signs of regression, especially because the Cubs have regressed defensively from last year’s historic pace. Hendricks has a .280 BABIP against in that span, so he’s still allowing hits at a reasonable level and his HR/FB% is right around league average. The high LOB% with a normal set of peripherals doesn’t seem sustainable to me, but he’s doing it and maybe we just need to accept that, especially against a Brewers lineup that hasn’t done much offensively for quite some time.

Brent Suter has a 3.41 ERA with a 3.77 FIP and a 4.17 xFIP in his 71.1 innings of work. He’s made 12 starts and eight relief appearances. As a starter, Suter has a 3.45 ERA across 60 innings and has held opposing batters to a .247/.297/.393 slash line with a .295 wOBA. He’s been extremely effective in that role. Unfortunately, he hasn’t worked deeper than five innings since August 2, so we won’t get to see Suter for a long period of time. He did work seven shutout against the Cubs on July 28 in his longest start of the season, so maybe there’s a glimmer of hope that he can push it a little farther.

Even with the length concerns from Suter, I’ve got a lean to Milwaukee here. Hendricks’s LOB% is too high for my liking and I have to consider the possibility of regression. The Brewers bullpen has mostly been solid in recent months and this one should be set up for Milwaukee to go to the right guys and maybe even with a lead. Along with the Brewers, I’d have some interest in the under. These are two guys that showcase really good command and a knack for inducing weak contact.

St. Louis (-120) at Pittsburgh; Total: 8

My guess here is that we see Pittsburgh steamed into a favorite. That movement is already coming with some shops, including Pinnacle, down into the -115 range. There isn’t a lot of faith in Lance Lynn in the investment community because Lynn has a 3.09 ERA with a 4.76 FIP and a 4.72 xFIP. Lynn has done a great job of stranding runners and has a very low BABIP against, but he’s given up some home runs and hasn’t been able to post the same strikeout rates that he did before Tommy John surgery. Lynn’s home run rate, in all honesty, isn’t that bad. It is a career high for him and it matches what he did in 2014-15 when he worked 279 innings, but 26 homers in 180.2 innings isn’t that big of a deal in a season like this.

PNC Park is a good fit for Lynn since it suppresses power from both righties and lefties. Lynn owns righties, but has some trouble with his splits against lefties. Still, the market sees that big ERA/FIP/xFIP discrepancy and simply wants to fade. The Cardinals are only 14-17 in Lynn’s 31 starts, so those that have faded him and St. Louis have made a modest profit, but nothing overly significant.

Gerrit Cole has a 4.13 ERA with a 4.16 FIP and a 3.86 xFIP. His command has fallen off dramatically this season with a spike from 6.8 percent to 16.1 percent in the HR/FB% category, even though his GB% is about the same as last year. Cole’s K/BB peripherals are pretty similar, but he hasn’t been able to avoid the long ball. He’s worked 192 innings and will likely have his second career 200-inning season, which is a big step for the Pirates right-hander. He may be running out of gas, though. Cole has walked 13 in his last four outings. He’s allowed 14 runs and that includes eight shutout innings against the Cubs on September 6.

I’ll wait this one out and play back on St. Louis when the line peaks. Lynn is not as untrustworthy in my eyes as he is in the eyes of the market and I’m still in full-on fade Pittsburgh mode.

Miami at Arizona (-180); Total: 10

If you’re looking for a big time underdog to make some noise, I would consider the Diamondbacks. Peters ran into some serious regression last time out with eight runs allowed on nine hits. He’s had some problems with walks, but he’s mostly been able to work around them as a short-statured left-hander with a unique delivery. It isn’t a sexy profile right now and one ERA blow-up has given Peters some signs of positive regression with a 5.40 ERA, a 3.66 FIP, and a 4.05 xFIP.

The Diamondbacks have been hitting lefties lately, but, overall, they’ve been better against righties. I think Peters can be in a bit of a bounce back spot today. I am a bit concerned that he has control issues and Chase Field is notorious for pitchers having grip issues with the baseball (hence the Humidor starting next year), but I think there’s enough margin here to look at Peters and say that he could be an asset.

Taijuan Walker has some negative regression in his profile. Walker has a 3.45 ERA with a 4.06 FIP and a 4.40 xFIP. He’s had a fine season and has a good set of peripherals, but he has been a little bit fortunate in some of his metrics with a 74.9 percent LOB% and a .287 BABIP against. He has been a bit worse at home than on the road from a home runs allowed perspective. His SLG percentage allowed at home is .431 compared to .385 on the road. But, it is still a good performance from a guy changing park factors, especially to go from a pretty decent one to a very bad one for pitchers.

I’d take a look at the Marlins here, though. Miami has a lot of offensive pieces that should also play up in the conditions at Chase Field. The total of 10 would suggest an expectation to me that Miami can also score some runs here. I know Peters is coming off of a bad start, but getting humbled isn’t always a bad thing for a rookie.

Obviously Miami doesn’t win this game often, but with a break-even percentage of 35.7 percent, I think this is closer to a 60/40 game than the line would indicate.

 

[Pesos]

MLB Umpire Assignment:

907 Chicago Cubs -126 Over 9 -105
908 Milwaukee Brewers +116 Under 9 -115
Chris Guccione 2017: 18-9, 12-14 o/u (2016: 19-12, 9-19 o/u)
Cubs are 6-13 in their last 19 games with Guccione behind home plate.
Brewers are 1-4 in their last 5 games with Guccione behind home plate.

925 Los Angeles Angels +152 Over 9½ +105
926 Houston Astros -162 Under 9½ -125
Tripp Gibson III 2017: 13-14, 15-12 o/u (2016: 17-11, 14-12 o/u)
Road team is 7-0 in Gibson IIIs last 7 games behind home plate.

915 New York Yankees -172 Over 9 -105
916 Toronto Blue Jays +162 Under 9 -115
CB Bucknor 2017: 11-13, 7-15 o/u (2016: 14-15, 12-15 o/u)
Blue Jays are 5-1 in their last 6 games with Bucknor behind home plate.
Yankees are 0-8 in their last 8 games with Bucknor behind home plate.

917 Cleveland Indians -194 Over 8 -110
918 Seattle Mariners +182 Under 8 -110
Greg Gibson 2017: 16-14, 15-15 o/u (2016: 16-12, 14-14 o/u)

929 Boston Red Sox -141 Over 9½ +100
930 Cincinnati Reds +131 Under 9½ -120
Joe West 2017: 18-14, 16-16 o/u (2016: 20-13, 16-17 o/u)
Home team is 4-1 in Wests last 5 games behind home plate.
Home team is 10-1 in Wests last 11 Saturday games behind home plate.
Reds are 5-2 in their last 7 games with West behind home plate.

921 Minnesota Twins -161 Over 9½ -110
922 Detroit Tigers +151 Under 9½ -110
Tony Randazzo 2017: 13-7, 10-8 o/u (2016: 11-20, 13-16 o/u)
Twins are 4-1 in their last 5 games with Randazzo behind home plate.
Tigers are 8-3 in their last 11 games with Randazzo behind home plate.

901 St. Louis Cardinals -114 Over 8½ -105
902 Pittsburgh Pirates +104 Under 8½ -115
Bill Miller 2017: 12-18, 16-13 o/u (2016: 18-15, 19-14 o/u)
Cardinals are 5-0 in their last 5 games with Miller behind home plate.

919 Tampa Bay Rays -101 Over 10 -115
920 Baltimore Orioles -109 Under 10 -105
Gabe Morales 2017: 13-16, 12-16 o/u (2016: 15-14, 11-16 o/u)
Road team is 10-2 in Morales' last 12 games behind home plate.
Under is 9-4 in Morales' last 13 games behind home plate.

903 Philadelphia Phillies +152 Over 9½ +100
904 Atlanta Braves -162 Under 9½ -120
Larry Vanover 2017: 12-11, 12-10 o/u (2016: 23-11, 10-21 o/u)
Braves are 7-15 in their last 22 games with Vanover behind home plate.
Phillies are 3-7 in their last 10 games with Vanover behind home plate.
Over is 5-1 in Vanovers last 6 games behind home plate.
Over is 7-0-2 in Vanovers last 9 Braves games behind home plate.

905 Washington Nationals
906 New York Mets
Marty Foster 2017: 17-7, 11-12 o/u (2016: 12-15, 12-13 o/u)
Home team is 12-3 in Fosters last 15 games behind home plate.
Nationals are 8-19 in their last 27 games with Foster behind home plate.
Nationals are 1-4 in Strasburgs last 5 starts with Foster behind home plate.

923 Kansas City Royals -175 Over 9½ -120
924 Chicago White Sox +165 Under 9½ +100
Paul Emmel 2017: 15-12, 13-12 o/u (2016: 16-13, 14-13 o/u)
Home team is 4-0 in Emmels last 4 games behind home plate.
Home team is 5-0 in Emmels last 5 White Sox games behind home plate.
Royals are 11-27 in their last 38 games with Emmel behind home plate.

909 Miami Marlins +159 Over 10 +100
910 Arizona Diamondbacks -169 Under 10 -120
James Hoye 2017: 11-16, 10-14 o/u (2016: 12-11, 12-10 o/u)
Road team is 7-2 in Hoyes last 9 games behind home plate.
Marlins are 4-0 in their last 4 games with Hoye behind home plate.

911 Colorado Rockies -103 Over 8½ -110
912 San Diego Padres -107 Under 8½ -110
Ryan Blakney 2017: 11-17, 8-17 o/u (2016: 15-22, 15-21 o/u)
Under is 35-17-4 in Blakneys last 56 games behind home plate.
Under is 6-0 in Blakneys last 6 Saturday games behind home plate.
Under is 4-0 in Blakneys last 4 Padres games behind home plate.
Under is 5-1 in Blakneys last 6 Rockies games behind home plate.

927 Texas Rangers +115 Over 9½ +100
928 Oakland Athletics -125 Under 9½ -120
Phil Cuzzi 2017: 17-11, 13-15 o/u (2016: 15-8, 10-13 o/u)
Road team is 4-1 in Cuzzis last 5 games behind home plate.
Rangers are 1-4 in their last 5 games with Cuzzi behind home plate.

913 San Francisco Giants
914 Los Angeles Dodgers
Mike Everitt 2017: 16-14, 15-15 o/u (2016: 21-13, 10-24 o/u)
Dodgers are 9-2 in their last 11 games with Everitt behind home plate.
Giants are 1-5 in their last 6 games with Everitt behind home plate.
Under is 4-1 in Everitts last 5 games behind home plate.
Over is 10-1-2 in Everitts last 13 Giants games behind home plate.

 

[Pesos]

College Football's Biggest Betting Mismatches: Week 4

Florida Gators at Kentucky Wildcats (+3, 44)

Florida's flaccid run game vs. Wildcats' wall of linemen

The Gators need to establish the run in this one after struggling on the ground in their first two games - and the Wildcats will be ready for them.

After a famously dreadful showing against the Wolverines - in which the Gators finished with just 11 rushing yards on a whopping 27 attempts - Florida bounced back nicely against Tennessee, stunning the visitors with a game-winning 63-yard Hail Mary touchdown with no time remaining. The Gators averaged 5.8 yards per carry in the victory - but if you remove Malik Davis's 74-yard scamper, that average drops all the way to 3.4 YPC.

Don't expect an average-boosting run like that this weekend. The Wildcats, who surrendered 5.3 YPC last season, are holding foes to a minuscule 1.9 YPC through three games - the best rate in the nation. Even more impressively, Kentucky hasn't allowed a rush longer than 11 yards all season.

TCU Horned Frogs at Oklahoma State Cowboys (-13, 67)

TCU's passing game vs. Cowboys' pass D

This could be the highest-scoring marquee game of the week, as the Horned Frogs and their 49.0 scoring average match up against a Cowboys team coming in with the third-highest point average in Division I (54.0).

Horned Frogs pass throwers Kenny Hill and Shawn Robinson have been sensationally accurate, connecting on nearly 75 percent of their passes through three games. But from a yardage perspective, the duo lags behind the rest of the Big 12; their 277.0 yards per game through the air ranks eighth in the 10-team conference. Hill's 8.7 yards per pass attempt ranks him 31st in the nation despite the elite-level accuracy.

Getting the ball downfield will be a challenge against a Cowboys secondary that has provided a solid compliment to the team's title-worthy offense. Opposing quarterbacks are completing just 55.7 percent of their passes against Oklahoma State, which has allowed only two passing touchdowns through three games.

Michigan Wolverines at Purdue Boilermakers (+10, 52)

Wolverines' run D vs. Purdue's misleading rush success

On the surface, it looks like the Purdue Boilermakers have had a decent rush attack so far; at 4.5 yards per carry, Purdue ranks inside the top 50 among FBS teams. But if you take away running back Tario Butler's two longest runs - of 36 and 39 yards, respectively - the Boilermakers average just 3.9 YPC, which would rank outside the top 70 nationwide. And even that is an improvement over last year, when Purdue averaged 3.2 YPC against FBS opponents and 2.8 YPC overall.

Michigan has given up a few long runs this season, but its ground containment still ranks among the best in the nation. Only Utah, Kentucky and Auburn have allowed fewer than the 2.3 YPC the Wolverines have surrendered against FBS opponents; that includes a sensational effort against Air Force, in which Michigan limited the Falcons' vaunted triple option attack to 3.4 YPC. on 49 attempts.

Butler won't find much room to roam this weekend - and neither will the rest of Purdue's ball carriers.

 

[Pesos]

Miss. State at Georgia

Georgia and Mississippi State are set to collide between the hedges at Sanford Stadium on Saturday night at 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN. As of late Friday afternoon, most betting shops had Georgia (3-0 straight up, 2-1 against the spread) listed as a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 48. MSU was available on the money line for a +175 payout (risk $100 to win $175).

UGA owns victories vs. Appalachian State (31-10), at Notre Dame (20-19) and vs. Samford (42-14). Kirby Smart’s squad dominated a very solid Appalachian State team in its opener, racing out to a 31-0 lead by the end of the third quarter. The Mountaineers didn’t get on the board until scoring a TD with 5:41 remaining, and they made the score look more respectable thanks to a 43-yard field goal with 26 ticks left.

Starting sophomore quarterback Jacob Eason was lost to a knee injury in the first quarter, however, but true freshman Jake Fromm stepped in and played like a poised veteran. Fromm completed 10-of-15 throws for 143 yards and one touchdown without an interception. Nick Chubb rushed for 96 yards and two TDs on 15 carries, while Sony Michel produced 87 rushing yards and one TD on 16 attempts.

In Week 2, UGA’s fan base showed up in South Bend with authority to take over Notre Dame Stadium. The defensive struggle featured two ties and three lead changes, the last of which came when Rodrigo Blankenship buried a 30-yard field goal with 3:34 left to provide the Bulldogs with the winning points.

Terry Godwin made an incredible one-handed catch in the corner of the end zone midway through the second quarter to knot the score at 10-10. After a pair of Notre Dame field goals gave it a 16-10 advantage, Michel’s six-yard TD run with 4:34 left in the third quarter gave UGA its first lead.

Fromm connected on 16-of-29 passes for 141 yards and one TD with one interception. Michel ran for 73 yards and one TD on 13 carries, while Chubb finished with 63 yards on 13 totes.

Smart’s team captured a 42-14 win over Samford last week, but it failed to cover the spread as a 33-point home ‘chalk.’ Fromm threw for 165 yards and three TDs without an interception. Godwin had four receptions for 98 yards and a pair of TDs. With Michel sitting out to rest an ankle injury, Chubb rushed for a team-high 131 yards on 16 attempts. Michel is 'probable' vs. MSU.

Georgia is ranked 17th in the nation in total defense, sixth at defending the run and 21st in scoring defense (14.3 points per game). This unit is led by senior LB Lorenzo Carter, who has recorded 14 tackles, five QB hurries, two forced fumbles, three sacks and 0.5 tackles for loss.

Mississippi State (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS) was probably the biggest winner in Week 3, smashing LSU by a 37-7 count as a 7.5-point home underdog. The 44 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 54.5-point tally.

Nick Fitzgerald completed 15-of-23 passes for 180 yards and two TDs without an interception. He also ran for 88 yards and two TDs on 14 carries. Aeris Williams rushed for a team-high 146 yards on 23 attempts, while Keith Mixon had six receptions for 97 yards and one TD.

There was nothing fluky about this pimpslap, as MSU dominated from start to finish. Dan Mullen made the best hire of the offseason when he snatched defensive coordinator Todd Grantham away from Louisville and Bobby Petrino. Grantham’s defense held Derrius Guice, one of the nation’s premier RBs, to 76 rushing yards on 15 carries.

Mullen’s offense is averaging 47.7 PPG to rank ninth in the nation in scoring offense. Fitzgerald and Williams have been the keys. The junior QB has completed 61.4 percent of his passes for 543 yards with a 7/1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Fitzgerald has rushed for 240 yards and five TDs on 31 attempts, averaging 7.7 YPC. Williams has run for a team-best 336 yards and one TD with a 7.0 YPC average. Mixon has seven catches for 112 yards and one TD, while Donald Gray has 10 receptions for 95 yards and one TD.

Before thumping LSU, MSU routed Louisiana Tech 57-21 as a 10.5-point road favorite in Ruston. Fitzgerald threw for 124 yards and three TDs, and he also had 111 rushing yards and two TDs on 10 carries. Williams ran for 107 yards on only nine totes.

In the season opener, MSU blasted Charleston Southern, 49-0, as a 21-point home ‘chalk.’ The defense limited the FCS foe to merely two first downs.

MSU’s defense is ranked third in the country in total defense (206.0 YPG), sixth in pass defense (105.0 YPG) and sixth in scoring defense (9.3 PPG). The catalyst for this unit is sophomore DT Jeffery Simmons, who has produced 17 tackles, two QB hurries, 2.5 sacks, one blocked punt that he returned 24 yards for a TD, one blocked kick and one fumble recovery returned for a 90-yard TD.

The ‘under’ is 3-0 for UGA with its combined scores averaging 45.3 PPG. Meanwhile, MSU has seen the ‘under’ go 2-1 overall, but the ‘over’ hit in its lone road assignment. Mullen’s team has seen its games average combined scores of 57.0 PPG.

B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets

Georgia owns a 1-5 spread record in six games as a home favorite since Smart took over. On the flip side, Mississippi State has compiled a 9-3 spread record in its last 12 games as a road underdog.

Nebraska RB Tre Bryant is ‘out’ vs. Rutgers with a knee injury. Bryant has rushed for 299 yards and two TDs this year. The Cornhuskers dropped a 21-17 decision to No. Illinois last week as 10.5-point home favorites. Starting QB Tanner Lee threw a pair of pick-sixes. Third-year head coach Mike Riley was given an extension last week ahead of the NIU game, prompting AD Shawn Eichorst to get canned on Thursday. Obviously, this increases the heat on Riley, who is just 16-13 at Nebraska. The Cornhuskers were favored by 12 points over the Scarlet Knights late Friday afternoon.

Boston College star LB Conner Strachan is out indefinitely with a knee injury. He will miss his second straight game at Clemson. The senior led BC in tackles (80) as a junior when he also produced 7.5 TFL’s, 3.5 sacks and one QB hurry. Before going down in a 34-10 home loss to Wake Forest, Strachan had recorded nine tackles and 1.5 TFL.

Clemson junior kicker Greg Huegel, a two-time second-team All-ACC selection, is done for the season after tearing his ACL at practice this week.

Cincinnati was extremely fortunate to improve to 2-1 last week with a 21-17 come-from-behind win at Miami (OH.). RedHawks’ junior QB Gus Ragland came into the season with a 20/1 career TD-INT ratio. The third pick of his career was a costly one, a 14-yard pick-six by Malik Clements with 1:07 remaining in the fourth quarter. The Bearcats are double-digit ‘dogs at Navy. Going against the Midshipmen’s vaunted ground attack, they will sorely miss sophomore LB Perry Young when he sits out the first half due to a targeting penalty from last week. Young has produced 24 tackles, three TFL’s, one forced fumble and two PBU through three games.

North Carolina has already sustained nine season-ending injuries and it still has two games left to play in the month of September. In addition, four other Tar Heels are ‘out’ vs. Duke, two are ‘doubtful’ and two are ‘questionable.’ The most disconcerting loss for Larry Fedora is junior LB Andre Smith (knee), who is done for the year after contributing 113 tackles, one sack, five TFL’s and three PBU in 2016.

Middle Tennessee’s two best players – QB Brent Stockstill and WR Richie James -- remain ‘questionable’ vs. Bowling Green.

Tulane QB Jonathan Banks was upgraded to ‘probable’ Friday and is expected to start vs. Army. Banks sustained a rib injury in the first half of a Week 2 loss at Navy. He missed last week’s loss at Oklahoma. Banks has completed 13-of-20 passes for 198 yards and three TDs without an interception.

 

[Pesos]

NCAAF Week 4 Picks and Predictions

Losing streaks are never fun.

And if you are competitive in any way, like most of us sports bettors are, you never get used to it. I hate losing and have hated it for as long as I can remember.

I remember playing club basketball as a kid for an organization called the ABA Celtics and there was a two season stretch where we won three games. Now even when I was young, I wasn’t one of those kids who would lose a sporting event and then just go pick up the next thing. Each an every one of those losses would stick with me. My mom wouldn’t talk to me after games (or before games for that matter), as apparently, I had a mean game face, even as a kid.

I would sit and think about what I could learn from those losses, what could I have done different and then go out and work some more on my game. I always considered myself a poor, poor, poor man’s version of Steve Nash, shaggy hair and all. (That’s probably the Canadian in me).

The point is, I do the same thing when it comes to my picks. Once I have sat down and done the research and settled on who I am taking, once the bets are in I become as emotionally invested in my picks as I am financially. It matters to me to do well. I do the same process to improve on my shortcomings from the week before and I know it can work.

The following year, we went undefeated and won our league championship.

So obviously we can’t go out and work on a jump shot to get better at our picks, but we can take meaningful steps to bouncing back.

One problem with betting college football is the size of the board. There are so many programs and matchups, with so much information to sort through it’s easy to get lost in it all. So, one thing I like to do is to just simply just go back and watch some tape. Who passes the eye test?

Mason Rudolph and the Oklahoma State Cowboys do that’s for sure.

Rudolph has lead the Cowboys and their high-octane offense to a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS record to start the season, outscoring opponents by a score of 162-52, while ranking second in the nation in total offense and fourth in points scored. The Cowboys also haven’t just been covering the spread, they have been doing easily, by an average of 17.3 points per game.

Rudolph is of course the catalyst for it all. The Cowboys signal caller has thrown for 1,135 yards with 11 touchdowns with just one interception, while completing 72.3 percent of his passes.

Oklahoma State gets a step up in competition when they host Kenny Hill and the TCU Horned Frogs to open conference play. Last season OK-State thumped TCU 31-6 and Rudolph is an even better passer this time around. The Cowboys in by two scores.

Pick: Oklahoma State -11.5

Oklahoma Sooners at Baylor Bears (+27.5, 63)

We're sticking to the Sooner state for pick No. 2. Baker Mayfield is arguably the only quarterback having a better season than Rudolph. (Anyone else pumped for the Battle of Bedlam this season?)

Mayfield has also led the Sooners to a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS record this season, which includes the going into Columbus and thumping Ohio State 31-16 as 7.5-point pups in Week 2. Mayfield has thrown for 1,046 yards and 10 touchdowns with no interceptions, while completing 76.8 percent passes.

Everyone knows about the Sooners powerful offense, but it's their defense that has been surprising. They rank 13th in the nation in points allowed at just 12.3 points per game and are currently 21st in total defense and seventh against the pass.

Oh, did I mention they are playing Baylor this week? Yes, the Baylor team that lost straight up to Liberty and UTSA as 33.5-point and 12.5-point faves respectively. The Bears are 0-3 SU/ATS and rank 82nd in total yards and 92nd in points scored and the defensive side of the ball is even worse. The Bears rank 111th in total defense, 97th in passing yards, 108th in rushing yards and 101st in points allowed.

They lost straight up as 33.5-point faves!

Pick: Oklahoma -27.5

Mississippi State Bulldogs at Georgia Bulldogs (-4, 48)

It's the battle of the Bulldogs "Between the Hedges" in Athens on Saturday.

The public and many pundits are falling in love with Nick Fitzpatrick and this upstart Mississippi State team after its huge 37-7 win as seven-point pups versus LSU last week.

Georgia opened as about a 6.5-to-7 point favorite and the line is all the way down to Georgia -4 and I really think this is an overreaction to one good performance. Mississippi State is good don't get me wrong, but what people aren't talking about is how good this deep and talented Georgia defense is. They are going to make life tough for Fitzgerald.

This game will be decided on the ground and I give the edge to Georgia's Nick Cubb and Sony Michel.

Pick: Georgia -4

Last week: 1-2
Season to date: 5-4

Heisman Odds Update

We've been talking about Rudolph for a few weeks now and he has done nothing but continue to pad his Heisman resume (see stats above), but there is absolutely no value with the OK-State gunslinger anymore as he is now a 3/1 front runner for the Heisman Trophy. He was 12/1 just last week. Rudolph is behind only in in-state rival Mayfield, who after another solid game is now the 5/2 favorite to win the prestigious award.

The two Bedlam Series quarterbacks are followed by USC's Sam Darnold at 9/2 and Louisville's Lamar Jackson at 5/1. Penn State running back Saquon Barkley rounds out the Top 5 at 12/1.

If you're still looking for a dark horse candidate to come out of the pack and challenge the front runners, take look at USF's Quinton Flowers at 50/1. Flowers is a strong-armed quarterback with the body and legs of a running back. He has thrown for almost 800 yards and eight touchdowns while rushing for another 300 yards and four scores on the ground. Plus, he could be playing for a Bulls team that has a good chance to be undefeated heading into Bowl season.

 

[Pesos]

Saturday's Week 4 NCAAF Top 25 Betting Cheat Sheet

UNLV Rebels at (9) Ohio State Buckeyes (-40, 60.5)

* Runnin' Rebels RB Lexington Thomas ranks 13th in Division I in rushing yards (341) and fifth in touchdowns (five) despite playing just two games. UNLV is 2-14 all-time against current members of the Big Ten Conference.

* Buckeyes head coach Urban Meyer is considering having placekicker Sean Nuernberger handle kickoff duties with Blake Haubeil and Bryan Kristian struggling to open the season. Ohio State has turned 93.8 percent of its red-zone visits into points.

LINE HISTORY: A few weeks ago the Rebels were 45-point favorites against Howard and now they're getting 40 points at Ohio State. A few books opened with the Buckeyes as 39-point chalk but just about all shops have it up to 40 now.

TRENDS:

*The Rebels are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games against Big Ten opponents.
*The Buckeyes are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.

NC State Wolfpack at (11) Florida State Seminoles (-13, 51.5)

* The Wolfpack's vaunted defense has produced just six sacks through the first three games. QB Ryan Finley comes into the week ranked 13th nationally in passing yards (987) and had 304 yards and a score in last year's loss to the Seminoles.

* Florida State is 7-0 in home openers under head coach Jimbo Fisher, outscoring opponents by an absurd 372-52 margin in that span. The Seminoles converted an NCAA-best 96.5 percent of their red-zone visits into points last season.

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers installed FSU as an 11-point fave but bettors have pushed the line up to 13 as some shops. The total started out around 51 and is up a half point to 51.5.

TRENDS:

*NC State is 20-4 ATS in its last 24 games following a bye week.
*FSU is 6-0 ATS in its last six games following an ATS loss.

Kent State Golden Flashes at (20) Louisville Cardinals (-44, 55.5)

* The Golden Flashes, who finished eighth in the nation in turnover margin in 2016, have turned the ball over just twice in their first three games. QB Nick Holley and LB Matt Bahr will miss the game due to injury; Holley leads the team with 207 rushing yards.

* Cardinals star Lamar Jackson became the ACC's all-time leader in rushing yards for a QB last week with 2,834, and has 10 100-yard rushing games since the start of 2016. Louisville ranks 10th in the nation in total offense at 554 yards per game.

LINE HISTORY: This line opened with Louisville -39.5 at some shops. The Cards have been bet up to as high as -44 now. The total has stayed pretty consistent at 56.5.

TRENDS:

*Kent State is 11-27 ATS in its last 38 non-conference games.
*Louisville is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games overall.

Old Dominion Monarchs at (13) Virginia Tech Hokies (-28, 52.5)

* True freshman Stephen Williams Jr., who will start at quarterback for the Monarchs, is the only 17-year-old QB in FBS. ODU is winless in eight games all-time against teams from the Power 5 conferences.

* QB Josh Jackson leads the ACC and ranks 10th among Power 5 quarterbacks with a 177.8 rating through three games. WR Cam Phillips leads the nation in receiving yards (417) and had 14 catches for 189 yards and three scores last week.

LINE HISTORY: The Wynn sportsbook in Las Vegas opened this game with the Hokies favored by 24.5 points but early money pushed the line up quickly. Virginia Tech is giving as many as 28.5 points at some shops.

TRENDS:

*Old Dominion is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games.
*The Hokies are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.

(5) USC Trojans at California Golden Bears (+17, 64.5)

* Five key Trojans players have been held out of practice this week, including three on the defensive side of the ball: DL Rasheem Green, CB Ajene Harris and OLB Porter Gustin. Star WR Michael Pittman Jr. is questionable to make his season debut.

* Cal will look to QB Ross Bowers to air it out a little more this week; his 7.1 yards per attempt ranks 74th in FBS. The Bears have allowed scores on just 7-of-11 opponent trips to the red zone, the 19th-best rate in the nation.

LINE HISTORY: This line seems to be floating between 16 and 17. Many shops opened at USC -16 and moved up to -17 but there are lots of 16s and 16.5s on the board now. The total opened at 63.5 and seems to be settling in at 64.

TRENDS:

*The Trojans are 6-0 ATS in their last six conference games.
*Cal is 1-5 ATS in its last six games against teams with winning records.

Boston College Eagles at (2) Clemson Tigers (-34, 52.5)

* Eagles QB is Anthony Brown ranks third among Division I freshmen in passing yards (525) and is tied for second in touchdown passes (five). The Boston College offensive line ranks fourth in the ACC with four sacks allowed through three games.

* Tigers LB Dorian O'Daniel had six tackles and a 44-yard interception return for a TD against Louisville, and has 20 tackles over his last two games. Clemson is one of four schools averaging more than 240 rushing and 240 passing yards.

LINE HISTORY: The Wynn opened with the Tigers giving 31.5 points and bettors pushed the line up to Clemson -34. The total is holding tight around 52.5.

TRENDS:

*BC is 2-9-1 in its last 12 conference games.
*Clemson is 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall.

Toledo Rockets at (14) Miami Hurricanes (-13.5, 60.5)

* The Rockets' 679 yards of offense in last week's win over Tulsa was the fourth-most in school history. Toledo has allowed just three sacks through three games, ranking in the top 20 nationally in sacks allowed per game.

* PK Michael Badgley is 21-for-21 on field-goal attempts from 40-49 yards in his collegiate career. The Hurricanes had an NCAA high-tying 17 true freshman in action in their season-opening win over Bethune-Cookman.

LINE HISTORY: This line opened at 'Canes -14 and it came down a half point to Toledo +13.5. The total is where the real movement happened. The over/under line opened at 56.5, got bet up to 62 and has since dropped back down to 61.

TRENDS:

*Toledo is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 road games.
*The Under is 9-2 in Miami's last 11 games following a bye week.

(1) Alabama Crimson Tide at Vanderbilt Commodores (+18.5, 43)

* The Crimson Tide have defeated the Commodores 21 straight times dating back to the 1985 season. Injured LBs Rashaan Evans, Dylan Moses and Anfernee Jennings returned to practice this week and could be in the lineup Saturday.

* The Commodores come into this one leading the nation in total defense (198.3 yards per game) and ranked second in team tackles for loss per game (9.3). Vanderbilt has outscored its opponents 63-7 in the first half.

LINE HISTORY: This game opened with the Tide giving 18.5 points and there's where it stands heading into Saturday. The total opened at 43.5 and is now down to 43 even.

TRENDS:

*Alabama is 6-1 ATS in its last seven conference games and 5-0 ATS in its last five road games.
*Vandy is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games against teams with winning records.

(15) Texas Christian Horned Frogs at (7) Oklahoma State Cowboys (-12.5, 71.5)

* Horned Frogs QB Kenny Hill has completed 75 percent of his passes, good for ninth in Division I. TCU leads the nation in third-down conversion rate (65.8 percent) and second in defensive touchdowns (three).

* The Cowboys enter the week averaging 607 yards of total offense, the third-highest rate in the nation. Oklahoma State has allowed opponents to convert 43.1 percent of third downs, ranking it 95th overall.

LINE HISTORY: Some books are dealing TCU +13, which is a 2-point jump from the opening number the Wynn hung over the weekend. The over/under line is stayed put between 71 and 71.5 all week.

TRENDS:

*TCU is 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall.
*Oklahoma State is 5-1 ATS in its last six games against winning sides.

(8 ) Michigan Wolverines at Purdue Boilermakers (+10.5, 50)

* The Wolverines have made 10 trips to the red zone in 2017 but have just one touchdown to show for it. The Michigan defense has been far more effective, allowing just three offensive TDs through three games.

* Purdue is a perfect 13-for-13 at converting red-zone visits into points, with 10 of those trips resulting in a touchdown. RB Tario Fuller has 232 rushing yards and two TDs in his past two games after finishing with just 29 yards in the season opener.

LINE HISTORY: Pinnacle opened at Purdue +8.5 and most shops are up to +10 or +10.5. The total opened up at 52 and has been bet down to 50.

TRENDS:

*Michigan is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games following an ATS loss.
*The Over is 11-2 in Purdue's last 13 home games.

Nevada Wolfpack at (18) Washington State Cougars (-28, 67.5)

* The Wolf Pack have held opponents to a 3.2 yards-per-carry average to date, a major improvement from the 6.1 YPC it allowed in 2016. Nevada's time-of-possession average of 25:25 ranks 119th in the nation.

* Cougars star ILB Peyton Pueller will miss the remainder of the season with a fractured foot; he ranked fourth in the conference in tackles last season. Washington State averages 408.3 passing yards per game, good for sixth in Division I.

LINE HISTORY: Bettors are Cougar fans this week. They bet up the opening line from WSU -25 all the way to -28.5 at some shops. The total opened as low as 64 and now can be found as high as 67.5.

TRENDS:

*The Cougars are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.
*The Under is 4-0 in Nevada's last four non-conference games.

(3) Oklahoma Sooners at Baylor Bears (+27.5, 63)

* The Sooners have won 16 Big 12 Conference games in a row, the fifth-longest such streak since the conference was formed 21 years ago. Baker Mayfield's 226.9 rating is the highest of any Division I QB that has played multiple games.

* Bears LB Clay Johnston has amassed 6.5 tackles for loss so far, ranking him second in the Big 12 and fourth in Division I. Baylor has held foes to 4-of-24 on third down over its last six quarters after opponents went 22-of-34 in its first six quarters.

LINE HISTORY: This game opened between 26.5 and 28 for the favored Sooners. It's settled at most sportsbooks at Oklahoma -27.5. There's been no real movement on the total. It's holding at 62.5 or 63 depending on the shop.

TRENDS:

*The Sooners are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall.
*Baylor is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games overall.

(19) Mississippi State Bulldogs at (12) Georgia Bulldogs (-4.5, 48.5)

* Mississippi State has allowed just one sack so far this season, joining Miami, Minnesota and Iowa State as the only Division I teams with one or fewer sack against. MSU's 47.7 points-per-game average leads the SEC and ranks ninth in the country.

* Georgia's RB Nick Chubb is averaging 6.6 yards per carry through three games after posting a 5.0 YPC average a season ago. Georgia averages 5.83 yards per punt return, good for 70th in Division I.

LINE HISTORY: Georgia opened as high as 7-point chalk but the line has come all the way down to -4 at some shops. Most books are dealing Georgia -4.5. The total is hanging out around 48 and 48.5.

TRENDS:

*The Over is 5-1 in Mississippi State's last six conference games.
*Georgia is 2-5 ATS in its last seven home games.

(22) Florida Gators at Kentucky Wildcats (+1.5, 43.5)

* Gators senior CB Duke Dawson remains in the concussion protocol and is questionable to play this weekend. Outside Malik Davis (five carries, 102 yards), Florida rushers are averaging 1.5 yards per carry.

* The Wildcats boast the nation's third-best run defense (57 yards per game) while limiting opponents to less than 2.1 yards per carry. Kentucky's defense has also recovered four fumbles in 2017, second-most in Division I.

LINE HISTORY: The Wynn posted the Gators as 4-point road faves and the line has surprising moved in favor of the Wildcats. Kentucky is now between a 1.5 and 2-point underdog. The total has settled in at 44 points.

TRENDS:

*The Gators are 5-0 ATS in their last five trips to Kentucky and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games against the Wildcats.
*Kentucky is 7-1 ATS in its last eight conference games.

Syracuse Orange at (23) LSU Tigers (-21, 56)

* The Orange have generated at least 500 total yards in seven of 15 games under head coach Dino Babers. Teams have converted just 16.3 percent of their third downs against Syracuse, the second-best mark in the ACC.

*LSU will be without star running back Derrius Guice, who is dealing with an undisclosed injury. The Tigers have won 48 consecutive home contests against non-conference foes dating back to the 2000 season.

LINE HISTORY: Bettors aren't backing the Bayou Bengals that loss to MSU last week. LSU opened around a 23.5-point fave and have been bet down to -21.5. The game over/under line is set at 56.5.

TRENDS:

*The Under is 7-1-2 in LSU's last 10 home games.
*Syracuse is 4-0 ATS in its last four games against SEC opponents.

(16) Auburn Tigers at Missouri Tigers (+18, 60)

* The Tigers have allowed a paltry 605 yards of total offense to date - its lowest total through three games since 1974. QB Jarrett Stidham set a school record with 18 straight completions in last week's 24-10 win over Mercer.

* Mizzou has allowed just two sacks through its first three games - the second-best mark in the SEC - while limiting opposing defenses to 2.7 tackles for loss per game. QB Drew Lock averages 19.1 yards per completion, third-best in Division I.

LINE HISTORY: The betting market agrees with the opening number on this game and we haven't seen much movement on the line at any shop. The total is another story though. Books opened this number as low as 55 and it's now as high as 60.

TRENDS:

*Mizzou is 2-9 in its last 11 games overall.
*The Over is 10-2 in Auburn's last 12 conference games.

(25) San Diego State Aztecs at Air Force Falcons (+3, 47.5)

* SDSU has forced 70 turnovers since 2015 - second nationally to Utah - and has committed just 29 of its own, the fifth-lowest total in Division I over that span. The Aztecs limited Stanford to 18:46 time of possession last week, its worst such mark since 1996.

* The Falcons average 320.5 rushing yards - seventh-most in Division I - while limiting opponents to an average of 227 total yards, the ninth-best rate in the country. Air Force has scored in 300 straight games, the third-longest active streak in the nation.

LINE HISTORY: The Wynn opened this game with the Aztecs favored by six points but the line was quickly bet down. Just about all outlets are dealing Air Force +3. The total jumped around a bit between 46.5 and 48 and seems to be settling across the board at 47.5.

TRENDS:

*San Diego State is 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 conference games.
*Air Force is 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall.

(4) Penn State Nittany Lions at Iowa Hawkeyes (+12.5, 52)

* The Nittany Lions have won nine straight games against Big Ten foes, its longest such streak since 1994. Penn State averages 8.28 yards per offensive play so far in 2017, the sixth-best rate in Division I.

* The Hawkeyes have won each of their first three games despite trailing in each; that includes a 10-point comeback against rival Iowa State earlier this month. Iowa's 73 first downs rank 27th in the nation.

LINE HISTORY: The line has bounced around between Penn State -12 and -13. The total is hanging around between 52 and 52.5.

TRENDS:

*Penn State is 8-0-1 ATS in its last nine conference games and 12-2-2 ATS in its last 16 games overall.
*The Under is 5-1 in Iowa's last six home games.

(24) Oregon Ducks at Arizona State Sun Devils (+14.5, 76)

* The Beavers have produced an NCAA-high 18 TDs on the ground; RBs Royce Freeman and Kani Benoit have accounted for 15 of them while averaging 6.3 yards per carry. Oregon leads the Pac-12 with seven interceptions and 42 points off turnovers.

* The Sun Devils are one of 20 Division I teams to score touchdowns on every visit to the red zone in 2017, going a perfect 8-for-8 coming into the weekend. QB Manny Wilkins shares the school record with 149 straight pass attempts without an interception.

LINE HISTORY: The Wynn opened this game with the favored Ducks giving 17 points and the line has been bet down to 14.5 and 14. The total opened at 76 and is settling in at 75.5.

TRENDS:

*The Ducks are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games on grass but 2-8 ATS in their last 10 conference games.
*The Sun Devils are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.

(6) Washington Huskies at Colorado Buffaloes (+11.5, 50)

* Huskies WR Dante Pettis has returned punts for touchdowns in each of Washington's first three games this season, and has eight punt return TDs for his career. The Huskies limit foes to a 28.6 success rate on third downs, inside the top 30 nationally.

* LB Drew Lewis is the first Buffaloes player with double-digit tackles in each of his first three games of the season since 1990. Colorado has forced seven turnovers, one of only 26 Division I teams to do so.

LINE HISTORY: The Huskies opened as 10-point chalk and have been bet up to -11.5. The total opened at 51 and now seems to be settling in at 49.5 or 50.

TRENDS:

*Colorado is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 conference games but 1-5 ATS against the last six opponents with winning records.
*The Huskies are 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings between the two schools.