Alabama v Florida State
During Nick Saban’s first season of his tenure at Alabama in 2007, the Crimson Tide went down to Jacksonville to face Florida State in a neutral-site game. The Seminoles captured a 21-14 win as 2.5-point favorites thanks to Antone Smith’s five-yard run late in the fourth quarter. The 35 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 44-point total.
FSU quarterback Xavier Lee threw a pair of touchdown passes to DeCody Fagg, a product of Quincy Shanks High School (my hometown), including a 70-yard scoring strike to draw first blood in the third quarter after a scoreless first half. D.J. Hall caught one of two TD passes from Alabama QB John Parker Wilson. Hall was the school’s all-time leading receiver until recently being surpassed by Amari Cooper and his record-setting accomplishments from 2012-14.
Alabama would go on to finish 7-6, beating Colorado in the Independence Bowl. Yes, Saban had to take his first team to Shreveport. Since then, Alabama has posted nine consecutive double-digit win seasons, winning 10 and 11 games just once apiece. That’s right, the Tide has won 12 games or more seven times, winning four national championships in the process.
This 2017 campaign will be the fourth since the College Football Playoff was incorporated. Alabama is the only school to make the CFP three times, winning it in 2015 before losing a heartbreaker in the final seconds during its rematch with Clemson in last year’s finals.
Alabama returns six starters on offense and five on defense from a team that finished 14-1 straight up and 10-4-1 against the spread. Nine of the Tide’s victories came over ranked teams and 13 scalps came by double-digit margins. Only Ole Miss, thanks to a pair of late TDs with one coming after a successful onside kick, lost by fewer than 10 points in a 48-43 setback in Oxford.
Jalen Hurts, the SEC Player of the Year as a true freshman QB, returns with expectations of being better. He obviously wasn’t bad in his debut, rushing for 954 yards and 13 touchdowns with a 5.0 yards-per-carry average. Hurts completed 62.8 percent of his passes for 2,780 yards with a 23/9 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
However, Hurts was in a throwing slump down the stretch last season. He threw for only 138 yards vs. Florida, 57 vs. Washington and 155 vs. Clemson. Hurts completed only 14-of-32 passes against the Tigers. With a double-digit lead in the second half against the Huskies, Saban and former OC Lane Kiffin clearly didn’t have much confidence in Hurts throwing the ball.
Whatever the case, Hurts is still surrounded by elite talent. Junior Calvin Ridley is probably the nation’s best wide receiver. Ridley had 72 receptions for 769 yards and seven TDs in ’16. WR ArDarius Stewart and TE O.J. Howard, a first-round pick by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, are gone, but Alabama is literally five-deep at the RB position.
Junior Bo Scarbrough was only the team’s third-leading rusher last year, but he’s the best of the bunch and a likely first-round pick in the 2018 NFL Draft. Scarbrough is a beast running between the tackles, rushing for 812 yards and 11 TDs while averaging 6.5 YPC last year. Junior Damien Harris, a former five-star recruit, rushed for a team-best 1,037 yards and two TDs in ’16, averaging 7.1 YPC. Josh Jacobs (6.7 YPC) rushed for 567 yards and four TDs as a true freshman, but he was listed as ‘questionable’ as of Thursday due to a hamstring issue. Sophomore B.J. Emmons is also in the backfield mix along with true freshman five-star recruit Najee Harris, who left HS early to participate in spring practice.
Alabama’s defense gave up only 13.0 points per game in ’16. This unit is stacked with future NFL players and led by junior safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, a third-team All-American selection last year when he produced 66 tackles, six interceptions, two pick-sixes, one sack, one forced fumble, four tackles for loss and seven passes broken up.
As of Thursday morning, most books had Alabama listed as a seven-point favorite with a total of 49.5. Gamblers could back the Seminoles to win outright for a +240 return (risk $100 to win $240). For first-half wagers, the Tide was favored by four with a total of 24.5 points.
We asked VegasInsider.com handicapper KellyinVegas about her thoughts on this matchup. Kelly said, “Initially I wasn’t a big fan of this game from a betting perspective. The line opened at 7.5 and I had made Alabama a seven-point favorite. I’ve seen the number down to 6.5 at a few spots in Vegas. If this line hits six, I’ll be all over Saban and the Tide. It’s almost always the kiss of death when the public likes the underdog in the primetime game. And that’s exactly what’s happening here.”
During his dynastic stay in Tuscaloosa, Saban has led his team to a 20-6 SU record in neutral-site games, producing a 16-10 spread record. When the Tide has been a single-digit favorite dating back to 2011, it has surprisingly struggled to a 7-10 ATS mark. Meanwhile, during Jimbo Fisher’s tenure at Florida State starting in 2010, he’s led the Seminoles to a 10-3 SU record and a 6-7 ATS ledger in games at a neutral venue. Since 2012, FSU is 4-1 ATS with a pair of outright wins in five games as an underdog. Overall on Fisher’s watch, the ‘Noles are 6-5 ATS with four outright victories in 11 games as underdogs.
FSU finished last year with a 10-3 SU record and an 8-5 ATS mark. The ‘Noles bring back six starters on offense and nine on defense, but they lost their two best players in RB Dalvin Cook and DE DeMarcus Walker. Cook is the school’s all-time leading rusher who carried FSU to a 33-32 Orange Bowl win over Michigan to close his career in his hometown of Miami. Walker had 68 tackles and 16 sacks last season, finishing his career with 28.5 sacks to rank third all-time in school history.
As a redshirt freshman, QB Deondre Francois established himself as the present and the future at the position in Tallahassee. He showed his moxy on the national stage in his debut, rallying FSU from a 28-6 second-quarter deficit to beat Ole Miss by a 45-34 count as a six-point favorite in Orlando. Francois connected on 58.7 percent of his throws for 3,350 yards with a 20/7 TD-INT ratio. Before accounting net yardage for sacks, Francois rushed for 526 yards and five TDs. Not only is he elusive in the pocket, but he’s consistently demonstrated a willingness to stand tall in the pocket and take big hits if it gives his receivers extra time to break open.
Four of FSU’s top six pass catchers are gone, including leading wideout Travis Rudolph. Junior WR Auden Tate and junior Nyqwan Murray are expected to step up and replace Rudolph’s production. Murray had 27 catches for 441 yards and five TDs in ’16, while Tate hauled in 25 receptions for 409 yards and six TDs.
FSU senior starting safety Trey Marshall is suspended for the first half vs. ‘Bama. Marshall recorded 58 tackles, two TFL’s, two QB hurries and four PBU last year. Senior LB Matthew Thomas didn’t practice Monday or Tuesday, and then Fisher didn’t show up for his standard post-practice media scrum Tuesday. Not only that, but the school announced that no FSU players would be available for interviews for the rest of the week.
Media members in Tallahassee had waited for Fisher for an hour before being informed of this information. Corey Clark of the Tallahassee Democrat reported that the Thomas saga “is an eligibility issue.” Although Thomas missed practice once again on Wednesday, word filtered out Wednesday night that his academic issues had been resolved.
Thomas is expected to practice Thursday and will play vs. Alabama. This is huge because he was FSU’s leading tackler in ’16, recording 77 stops, one sack, 10 TFL’s, four QB hurries and two PBU.
After missing most of last season with a knee injury, one of the nation’s premier players is poised to return to the field Saturday night. That would be redshirt sophomore free safety Derwin James, a near-certain first-round pick in the 2018 NFL Draft. As a freshman in ’15, James had 91 tackles, 4.5 sacks, 5.5 TFL’s, four PBU, two QB hurries, two forced fumbles and one fumble recovery.
James is joined in the secondary by junior CB Tarvarus McFadden, one of the nation’s top cover corners who garnered first-team All-American honors last season. McFadden produced 20 tackles, eight interceptions, six PBU and three TFL’s.
Saban is a perfect 10-0 in season openers since leaving the Miami Dolphins for Alabama. Even better for our purposes, the Tide is 8-1 ATS in those lid-lifters with the only non-cover coming in a 33-23 win over West Virginia in ’14 as a 25.5-point ‘chalk.’ This is Alabama’s sixth straight season opener at a neutral site, and its average margin of victory has been 25.0 PPG in wins over Michigan (41-14), Va. Tech (35-10), WVU (33-23), Wisconsin (35-17) and Southern Cal (52-6).
Fisher, who worked as an assistant under Saban and helped him win his first national title as his OC at LSU in 2003, is undefeated in seven season openers with the ‘Noles, compiling a 4-2 spread record in the six lined contests. Fishers has produced double-digit win totals six times in his first seven seasons as HC at FSU, posting a 78-17 overall record.
Florida v Michigan
Florida and Michigan are set to tangle Saturday afternoon at Jerry World in Arlington on ABC at 3:30 p.m. Eastern. A few weeks ago, seven UF players were suspended amid a fraud investigation stemming from the use of a school-issued credit card. Five of those seven players didn’t figure to get significant playing time against the Wolverines, but one of the seven was star WR and special-teams ace Antonio Callaway. Although Callaway’s status for Michigan had been iffy all summer after his arrest for a misdemeanor amount of marijuana, his involvement in this fiasco has him out of chances if he makes another bad decision. Michigan had been favored by 2.5 points but after the seven suspensions, the Wolverines were moved to 3.5 or four where the number remained as of early Wednesday. Then more bad news struck Wednesday afternoon when starting RB Jordan Scarlett and redshirt freshman WR Rick Wells were also suspended for the same reasons as the seven others. According to Trey Wallace of TheReadOptional.com, the Gainesville Police Department is now working with UFPD on the same investigation that could reportedly lead to more suspensions. When you tack on true freshman WR James Robinson’s suspension from last week for being caught smoking weed in his dorm room, there are now 10 UF players not making the trip to Dallas. When Scarlett was added to the suspension list, oddsmakers moved Michigan from 3.5 or four to 4.5 or five. The total shifted from 44.5 or 45 down to 43.5. As of Thursday morning, the Gators were +180 on the money line.
UF’s Callaway had 54 receptions for 721 yards and three TDs in ’16, while Scarlett rushed for 889 yards and six TDs while averaging 5.0 YPC. Look for true sophomore Lamical Perine and senior RB Mark Thompson to get the bulk of the carries in Scarlett’s absence. There had been some question about Thompson’s status, as he was also cited for weed use this summer, but he’s reportedly worked his way back into the good graces of the coaching staff and will play. True freshman RB Malik Davis is also going to get playing time, and another freshman in Adarius Lemons may also get some snaps. Junior DE Keivonnis Davis is the other significant loss. He started four games last year (due to injuries) and will be part of the d-line rotation this season. Davis had 27 tackles, five QB hurries, 1.5 sacks and 1.5 TFL’s in ’16. UF hasn’t lost a season opener since falling at Miami in 1987. The Gators will be looking to avenge a 41-7 loss to Michigan in the 2015 Citrus Bowl.
I was at Jerry World when Michigan and Florida met in the 2014 South Region finals of the men’s NCAA Basketball Tournament. It was woodshed treatment for UF in that spot also, as Nik Stauskas went on a 3-point rampage in the Wolverines’ blowout victory. Michigan also beat Florida 41-35 in the 2008 Capital One Bowl and sent UF packing from the Round of 32 in the 1988 NCAA Tournament. In other words, the Gators haven’t had much success against teams from Michigan. (Michigan State beat UF in the finals of the 2000 NCAA Tournament, a bowl game on New Year’s Day in 2000 on a walk-off field goal and the Round of 32 in the 2003 Tourney.)
UF’s Jim McElwain appeared as if he was going to play coy about his starting QB all the way up until kickoff. However, perhaps sensing his team needed a boost following the news about Scarlett on Thursday, McElwain announced that redshirt freshman and former four-star recruit Feleipe Franks will get the starting nod. The Wakulla HS product (20 miles south of Tallahassee) beat out Notre Dame grad transfer Malik Zaire and former starter Luke Del Rio (5-1 record in six career starts), although you could still see Zaire get playing time.
Auburn v Georgia Southern
As of Thursday morning, Auburn was listed as a 34-point favorite Saturday vs. Georgia Southern, which has a 7-1 spread record in its last eight games against SEC or ACC foes. The Tigers are an atrocious 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games when favored by 19 points or more.
Georgia v Appalachian State
As of Thursday morning, Georgia was installed as a 14.5-point home favorite vs. Appalachian State. The Mountaineers are 27-5 SU in their last 32 games and they’ve lost by more than 14 points only twice in their last 33 outings (at eventual national runner-up Clemson in 2015 and vs. Miami last season). Meanwhile, UGA has failed to win by more than 14 points in 17 consecutive games. The Bulldogs, who went 0-4 ATS as home favorites and lost outright between the hedges three times in Kirby Smart’s first season, are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games as double-digit home ‘chalk.’
Kansas
Kansas landed a big-time juco recruit in RB Octavius Matthews, who was originally an Auburn commit and was expected to contribute immediately for the Jayhawks. However, Matthews has been forced to retire due to an unspecified heart condition. This is another big loss for KU, which lost senior WR LaQuvionte Gonzalez early this summer when he was dismissed from the program. Gonzalez had 62 catches for 729 yards and three TDs last season. Keep an eye on Kansas WR Daylon Charlot, a four-star recruit who played five games and had two receptions for Alabama as a true freshman in 2015. He sat out last year after transferring and has three years of eligibility with KU. David Beaty is making strides on the recruiting trail, as he already has a pair of commits out of Landry-Walker High School in New Orleans for the ’18 class. WR Devonta Jason is a five-star player who’s ranked the 24th-best player in the nation by Rivals.com. Rivals has four-star DB Corione Harris ranked No. 86 in the country.