Coach Fletcher’s Saturday Free Pick
Saturday, August 15
The Pick New York Mets –110
Niese Tries to Keep Mets on Top
The Mets have won 5 of the last 7 starts by Jon Niese and they will try to improve on that tonight. The Pirates are 4-3 in Charlie Morton’s last 7 starts.
The Pitchers
Niese, Mets Morton, Pirates
· 7-9, 3.46 era 7-4, 4.48 era
· 4-4, 4.11 era at home 3-3, 5.92 era on road
· 2-0, 1.80 era last 3 1-0, 4.07 era last 3
· 4-1, 2.58 era last 7 1-3, 4.68 era last 7
· 4-6, 3.91 era last 15 n/a
· 6-7, 3.24 era at night 5-3, 3.67 at night
· 2-1, 2.87 era in July 0-3, 5.04 in July
· 2-0, 1.93 era in August 1-0, 3.75 in August
· 2-1, 2.93 era since All-Star break 1-2, 5.04 era since All-Star break
· LH hit .259 against LH hit .307 against
· RH hit .269 against RH hit .229 against
Niese is obviously the “now” guy. The lefty has a 2.77 era over his last 12 starts so I think we can admit that this may be the norm for him, at least at this time. Morton zigs and zags, but has mostly been zagging lately, certainly after the break. Morton also has been having trouble in the first inning this season. He’s allowed 17 runs in 14 starts in the first frame. I think you have to give the edge to Niese in this one.
The Bullpens
Mets – 2.68 era at home Pirates – 2.99 on road
The Hitters
While the Mets probably have an edge in the pitching department, you have to give the offensive nod to the Pirates, especially as of late.
Mets Pirates
· 3.8 runs per game 4.2 runs per game
· 4.2 runs per game home 4.2 runs per game road
· 3.9 runs per game vs RHP 4.6 runs per game vs LHP
· 4.9 runs per game last 7 6.6 runs per game last 7
· 3.3 runs per game night 4.2 runs per game night
· Scored 12 vs Miami, 12 vs Rockies Scored 13 vs LAD, 10 vs Cards
· 7.97 hits per game (30th MLB) 8.97 hits per game (6th MLB)
· 3.98 runs per game 4.24 runs per game
· 0.95 HR per game 0.84 runs per game
· 2.77 BB per game 2.62 BB per game
· 7.92 K’s per game 8.06 K’s per game
· 12.53 total bases per game (29th MLB) 13.63 total bases per game (13th MLB)
· .238 batting average (30th MLB) .259 batting average (7th MLB)
· .239 batting average home (28th MLB) .255 batting average away (6th MLB)
· .373 slugging % .394 slugging %
· .302 on base % (28th MLB) .320 on base % (10th MLB)
· .676 on base + slugging (28th MLB) .714 on base + slugging (13th in MLB)
This is a no contest. The Mets rely on pitching to win games, although they have fared well doing that. The Pirates are a better balanced team but they have a big disadvantage in the starting pitchers today.
Odds and Ends
Mets Pirates
· 63-53 67-46
· Plus 0.3 run differential Plus 0.5 run differential
· 13-6 w/ $ line -100 to -125 home 7-11 w/$ line +100 to +125 road
· 42-19 at home 28-28 road
· 10-3 August 7-4 August
· 38-42 night 45-34 at night
· 49-43 against RHP 12-9 vs LHP
· 22-24 vs team w/winning record 33-24 vs team w/winning record
· 10-8 vs team w/winning record 2nd half 15-7 vs team w/winning record 2nd half
· Won 10 of last 113 Won87 of last 113
· Won last 6 of 7 at home 7-4 last 11 on road
· 0.53 errors per game 0.74 errors per game
Pittsburgh has gone 2-5 vs the Mets over the last 3 years. Pittsburgh is 3-0 vs the Mets this season. Pittsburgh is 4-3 against the Mets in NY over last 3 seasons.
Coach’s Conclusion:
I admit that when I first approached this game I had a strong sense that the Mets were definitely the right side. Their 42-19 home record is outstanding. Their amazing August run is awesome. But the Pirates have a huge offensive edge any way you look at it. However, I look at pitching first, then fundamentals like fielding, etc. second, and offense last. Under those conditions I’m taking the Mets.
The Pick New York Mets -110