SPORTS WAGERS
ATLANTA -102 over Colorado
Mike Foltynewicz came to Atlanta from the Astros in the Evan Gattis deal in January of 2015. The former first round pick heads to the mound today after an impressive outing versus the White Sox on July 10th. The big 6'4” flame-thrower tossed seven scoreless innings while striking out 10. We love it when guys can get outs on their own and Folty does just that. He's has 45 K's in 49 innings this season all behind his 95.9 mile per hour heater. His swing and miss rate in his last start was 17% with an xERA of 2.01. Foltynewicz is getting progressively better with each start but perhaps more importantly is that he’s throwing with confidence. There is no denying the talent here and now he has the experience and confidence to go with it. As a small underdog in his home park, Foltynewicz is the true value play here.
Chad Bettis put up some great numbers to start the season considering he plays half his games in Denver. In May and June, Bettis posted a 6-3 record and a 2.69 ERA. He had a high profile start at Dodger Stadium June 6th that got him a win and a ton of attention but it's been all downhill since then. In his last four starts, Bettis has given up 12 runs on 21 hits in 21.1 innings while striking out just eight. With 78 K’s in 102 innings and a 52% groundball rate, Bettis manages to keep his head above water by keeping the ball out of the thin air in Colorado. His dominant start/disaster start split speaks to his "not horribleness." While Bettis has some appeal, it only applies when he’s taking back a tag. As the chalk on the road, his value disappears. The Rocks scored a rare 11 times on the road last night so their appeal is stronger today than it was yesterday. That’s our cue to jump in, as we get the home team and the much better arm in an evenly priced game.
Boston +112 over N.Y. YANKEES
We’re not going to go too deep into the starters here because it’s not very relevant. What’s relevant is that both pitchers are replacement level guys that would have a hard time cracking most of the rotations at this level. Even if C.C. Sabathia is superior to Chi-Chi Rodriguez, does it really matter? That’s like saying Bob Barker could defeat Larry King in a 100-yard dash. The bottom line is that the Yanks offense continues to make a lot of bad pitchers look good while the Red Sox offense can make a lot of good pitchers look bad. We told you about Sabathia’s good fortune six starts ago but it has caught up to him. Sabathia's posted two-straight disasters at home, in addition to three of his last four starts overall. He’ll now face a Red Sox lineup that has a .886 OPS over the last 14 days, which is second in the league.
The Yankees continue to be overpriced almost daily and it’s not warranted. New York’s meat, the 4, 5 and 6 guys in the batting lineup consists of Brian McCann (.244), Mark Texeria (.189) and Alex Rodriguez (.221). That trio couldn’t be the 7, 8 and 9 hitters on most AL clubs. New York’s batting lineup is filled with rally killers that strike out often and that have no shot of beating out a double-play ball. C.C. Sabathia is New York’s biggest starting pitcher risk and there is no chance that we’re going to miss fading him today or any day when he’s favored.
MINNESOTA +123 over Cleveland
The Indians might have the best rotation in baseball but young Trevor Bauer could be their weakest link. In his last start, the former top-3 pick was lit up by the hapless Yankees for five runs on eight hits in just 5.2 innings of work. His 1.41 WHIP in July is also a concern, as he's putting guys on base at a much higher rate than he was earlier this season. Bauer has not fared well against the Twinkies recently either. In fact, in three starts against Minnesota last season, Bauer posted a 4.91 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP, resulting in two disasters and one near disaster. He’ll now face a hot-hitting Twins’ team that is tops in MLB in OPS (.900) over the last 14 days.
If there was ever a team that would have skipped the All-Star festivities it would have been these Twins. Minny was finally rolling coming into the break by winning seven of their last nine games, including three of four over the American League leading Rangers. Tyler Duffey is a name you wouldn't expect to see on a list of the most skilled starters during the past 12 months but his skills have featured good command and a groundball tilt with eight K’s/9. Duffey’s knuckle-curve and changeup are both solid strikeout pitches. While his 5+ ERA will scare some away, we’re very interested in him at home with a tag. Duffey has whiffed 19 batters in his last 20 innings. In his last start in Texas, he pitched six scoreless innings while striking out nine on his way to a victory. Duffey has been great against the Indians in his three career starts with a 2-0 record, .191 oppBA, 0.93 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP. The Twins poor record keeps them underpriced daily, which is precisely the case again here.
SAN DIEGO +149 over San Francisco
The Padres shook a big monkey off their back last night by getting their first win of the season over the NL West leading Giants. Make no mistake, this division is a two-horse race and the Padres aren’t one of the two but we like that they came out swinging considering the circumstances. San Diego GM A.J. Preller made a shrewd move by sending first time All-Star Drew Pomeranz to the Red Sox for top prospect Anderson Espinoza, who ranks 15th on Baseball America's mid-season prospect report. He's just 18 and has a chance to anchor the Padres rotation for a decade. Also in the Padres future is Luis Perdomo, who's coming off an appearance in the Futures Game on All-Star weekend. The market will find it difficult to dismiss Perdomo’s 7.33 ERA but we do not because much of that damage was done while he was coming out of the bullpen early in the season. His poor surface stats are the result of a 38% hit rate, 58% strand rate, and 43% hr/f more than anything else. His underlying skills as a starter were very good with 8.4 K’s/9, 3.4 BB’s/9 and a 62% groundball rate. In fact, he was the only starter in June who combined a 12%+ swing and miss rate and 60%+ groundball tilt. With mid-90s heat, a steep groundball tilt, and one of the better curveballs in the NL West (18% swing and miss rate against it), Perdomo is absolutely one of the most undervalued pitchers in baseball. This kid has nasty stuff and a promising future.
After a strong start to the season, Jeff Samardzija limped into break registering just two wins since May 24th. In that time “The Shark” has given up 31 earned runs in 46.1 innings of work while striking out just 28 batters. His ERA in June was 6.83, which was way up from the 2.08 mark he posted in May. Samardzija not getting better as the summer wears on. After four straight 200+ inning seasons we wonder if fatigue is becoming a factor. The sub-indicators suggest that might be the case. Samardzija’s swing and miss rate is just 8% since the start of June. He’s been tagged for four jacks in one game and three in another over that span as well. Samardzija has been tagged for 10 jacks over his past seven starts. The Giants have so much more market appeal than the Padres have. Samardzija has so much more appeal than Perdomo has based on familiarity and pedigree. Combine the two and it creates this huge overlay, which we’re all over.
