Saturday 4/4/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA Odds and Predictions: Saturday, April 4 Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews

The Los Angeles Clippers' Blake Griffin

Unlike Friday's schedule, there are some pretty good NBA matchups on Saturday night featuring likely playoff teams. There are few bigger fans of the Association than I, but I'll certainly be watching the Final Four instead of the professionals on Saturday night. But, hey, there are always potential NCAA/NBA parlay options. Here's a look at every game on the penultimate Saturday of the 2014-15 NBA regular season.

76ers at Hornets (-10.5, 191.5)

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Charlotte was in Indiana on Friday and without both Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Cody Zeller. Philadelphia lost a fourth straight on Wednesday, 106-93 in Washington to start a three-game road trip. Ish Smith tied his season high with 23 points, and Isaiah Canaan added 18 for the 76ers, who have lost 18 of 19 on the road. Canaan probably won't play here as he was on crutches after the game with a sprained ankle. The 76ers and Hornets have split two meetings this season, while Charlotte has won three in a row at home against Philadelphia.

Key trends: The Hornets are 1-7 against the spread in their past eight at home vs. teams with a losing road record. The "over/under" has hit in six of Philly's past seven against teams with a losing record.

Early lean: Love Philly at this number and under.

Nets at Hawks (-7.5, 202.5)

Brooklyn hosted Toronto on Friday, and if the Nets finish eighth in the East, which is quite possible, they will open the playoffs in Atlanta. The Hawks had a puzzling 105-95 loss in Detroit on Tuesday, although it was the second of a back-to-back. I guess there are no more puzzling losses this season because Atlanta has nothing to play for. In that game, Coach Mike Budenholzer went to a full platoon rotation. He played the starters for 11 or 12 minutes at the beginning of each half and then made a five-player switch to the reserves for the rest of the half. Expect that the rest of the way. Atlanta is 2-0 vs. Brooklyn this season, winning each by double digits.

Key trends: The road team is 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings. The under is 10-2 in the Hawks' past 12 vs. the East.

Early lean: Hawks and over.

Heat at Pistons (TBA)

Detroit was in Chicago on Friday. Miami lost a second straight Thursday, 114-88 in Cleveland. Dwyane Wade left the game with a knee injury but hopes to play Saturday as it wasn't a severe issue. Miami was without Udonis Haslem, who missed his second straight game with the stomach flu. These teams have split two meetings, each winning at home. They played last Sunday in south Florida and the Heat won behind 40 points from Wade, 19 coming in the fourth quarter. Hassan Whiteside and Chris Andersen missed the game, and Luol Deng and Michael Beasley each left in the first half. Andre Drummond had a career-high 32 points for the Pistons and Reggie Jackson 31. Overall the Heat have won nine of the past 11 meetings, but those were mostly with LeBron.

Key trends: The Heat are 1-5 ATS in their past six on the road. Detroit has covered four straight at home. The under is 6-2 in Miami's past eight.

Early lean: Heat win if Wade plays.

Celtics at Raptors (-5, 207.5)

Boston hosted Milwaukee on Friday, reportedly getting back injured forward Jared Sullinger in a surprise, and Toronto was in Brooklyn. The Raptors were to play the Nets without All-Star guard Kyle Lowry, and don't look for him here, either. Thus, Greivis Vasquez would start again. Toronto is 2-0 against Boston this season -- averaging 109.5 points -- and Lowry has averaged 27.0 points, one of his highest marks against and team, 5.0 assists and 4.5 rebounds. Overall the Raptors have won four straight in the series.

Key trends: Boston is 9-2 ATS in its past 11 on the road vs. teams with a winning home record. Toronto is 1-4 ATS in its past five in the second of a back-to-back. The under is 4-1 in Boston's past five in the second of a back-to-back.

Early lean: Raptors and over.

Wizards at Grizzlies (TBA)

Washington hosted the Knicks on Friday and Memphis was home to Oklahoma City. The Grizzlies were hoping Zach Randolph was to play against the Thunder with an elbow injury, and as of this writing he was going to. Memphis lost in Washington 107-87 on March 12, but that's very misleading. Coach Dave Joerger sat Randolph, Marc Gasol, Mike Conley and Tony Allen, with only Conley even dealing with a minor injury. The Wizards' John Wall took that almost personally: "I think we're a team that's on the rise, and teams respect us now. And I guess they don't respect us."

Key trends: Washington has failed to cover its past seven in the second of a back-to-back. The under is 5-1 in Memphis' past six Saturday games.

Early lean: Make sure Randolph plays both ends of the back-to-back.

Magic at Bucks (-7.5, 194.5)

Orlando was in Minnesota on Friday and Milwaukee in Boston. The Magic won the first meeting with Milwaukee in central Florida 101-85 early in the season. The Bucks won 115-100 in Orlando in late January and 97-91 at home on March 11 as Khris Middleton tied a career high with 30 points and set a career high with 12 field goals. It was Milwaukee's fifth straight win at home in the series.

Key trends: Orlando is 5-2 ATS in the past seven in Milwaukee. The under is 10-1 in the Bucks' past 11 on Saturday.

Early lean: Bucks and under.

Warriors at Mavericks (TBA)

I mentioned that Thursday night's home game with Phoenix really shaped up as a letdown game for the Warriors, and I took the Suns and the double-digit points. Golden State escaped with a 107-106 victory, its 11th straight win. Harrison Barnes -- not Steph Curry or Klay Thompson -- hit a running shot in the lane with less than a second remaining. It was a fantastic game if you watched on TNT. Curry finished with 28 points, eight rebounds and five assists. Steve Kerr's next win will set an NBA record for most by a rookie coach. I don't expect to see Warriors forward Draymond Green as he has missed three straight with a shin issue. Dallas lost 108-101 at home to Houston on Thursday (called that result too). Mavs forward Chandler Parsons seems unlikely for this game after leaving Thursday with right knee soreness. Golden State is 3-0 against Dallas this season, winning each by at least seven points and scoring a minimum of 104 points in each. Overall, the Warriors have won six straight in the series, including two straight in Big D.

Key trends: Golden State is 5-1 ATAS in the past six in Dallas. The under is 7-2 in the past nine meetings overall.

Early lean: I think Mavs win this game even without Parsons. No reason for the Warriors to care on the road.

Clippers at Nuggets (+6.5, 216.5)

Denver was in San Antonio on Friday. The Clippers bounced back from a crushing loss at home to the Warriors on Tuesday with an impressive 126-122 win in Portland on Wednesday to reach 50 wins. The Clippers were flat at first, trailing by 19 in the first half. Chris Paul had an amazing game with a season-high 41 points to go with 17 assists and just one turnover. The Nuggets and Clippers have split two meetings, each winning at home. L.A. has won five straight at Staples Center against Denver.

Key trends: The home team is 8-1 ATS in the past nine meetings. The under has hit in six of the past eight.

Early lean: Clippers and over.

Pelicans at Trail Blazers (-4.5, 199.5)

New Orleans was in Sacramento on Friday and Portland at the L.A. Lakers. It's quite possible the Pelicans could tie Oklahoma City for the final playoff spot with an upset of Portland. The Thunder entered Friday's very tough game at Memphis just 1.5 games up, and New Orleans was a solid favorite to beat the Kings. Portland is 2-0 against the Pelicans this season, but both wins came back in 2014. It's must-see TV to watch LaMarcus Aldridge and Anthony Davis square off.

Key trends: The Pelicans are 7-3 ATS in the past 10 meetings. The over is 4-1 in Portland's past five at home.

Early lean: Blazers and over.

Jazz at Suns (-1.5, 190)

Utah has been off since beating Denver 98-84 on Wednesday for its third straight win and third straight time holding an opponent under 90 points. Rudy Gobert continued his breakout season with a career-high 20 points along with 12 rebounds. Derrick Favors was back after missing two games and had 19 points and seven rebounds. Rodney Hood missed the game after suffering a concussion against the Timberwolves on Monday. Phoenix lost that crusher in Golden State on Thursday that all but eliminated the Suns from the playoffs. They have dropped five in a row and are now a .500 team. Brandon Knight and Alex Len missed Thursday's game, and you won't see them here. The Jazz beat visiting Phoenix 118-91 very early in the season and the Suns won at home 100-93 in early February.

Key trends: Utah has covered five of the past eight meetings. The under is 4-1 in the past five in Phoenix.

Early lean: I think Phoenix spent whatever energy it had left on Thursday. Go Utah and under.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Cal-Expo

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 3 - Post: 6:50 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 82 - Purse:$3000 - CLAIMING HANDICAP $4,000-$5,000 ULYSSES BLUE CHIP - FIRST TIME LASIX


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 5 ART GENTA 3/1


# 2 MODERN LOOK 7/2


# 1 PERUVIAN PARADISE 7/1


Hard not to love ART GENTA as the top selection in here. Had one of the finest TrackMaster speed figs of the grouping in his last competition. Must use in your wagers. Recent statistics for the driver - 19 percent win - make this gelding a stand out in the race. Deserves a shot given the positive win figure he sports. MODERN LOOK - He looks very nice in this race and should find a way to take advantage of favorable pace figures. Huge driver/trainer stats make this harness racer a huge choice. Definitely will be putting cash down for this one. PERUVIAN PARADISE - Have to make Hernandez the wager here if only for the last thirty days win rate. Big chance for the top prize. Competing sharply, recorded a very strong speed fig in his last race (79).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Miami Valley

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 9 - Post: 9:10 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 89 - Purse:$13200 - HORSES & GELDINGS CLAIMING HCP. $15,000 - $20,000 W/ALLOWANCES POST POSITIONS DRAWN TO PRICE SUTTON PICKS 1 OVER 2 & 8


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 1 BETTOR WIN 2/1


# 4 DANGER HI JOLTAGE 5/1


# 5 CREIGHTON HANOVER 6/1


BETTOR WIN seems to be our best wagering option in this race. The knowledge group knows that speed is King in harness racing. This race horse will unlock our way to a nice victory. Achieved a 89 speed figure in last race. A duplicate outing here should get the triumph in this event. The panel of smart guys happens to know that when you put Sutton and Morgan together very nice results happen frequently. DANGER HI JOLTAGE - Don't let a interesting entrant with such a sharp winning percentage like this be forgotten. The group gives this standardbred a competitive chance to come home a winner, class figures are tops in the field of horses. CREIGHTON HANOVER - Not many folks know, but the 5 position here at Miami Valley has been outstanding for a better than expected win clip. Positive thought - going to post well enough to contend in this contest.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fonner Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 3 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $5200 Class Rating: 78

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS,118 LBS., OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.



RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 1 MAJORCA SUN 6/1


# 2 MOJAVE SECRET 5/2


# 4 TIZ HAPPENS 2/1


MAJORCA SUN has a decent shot to take this race. He looks very good in this slot and I expect will be on the lead or close at the midpoint. Is hard not to look at based on speed figures which have been solid - 77 avg - of late. Has very good Equibase Class Figures relative to this group - worth a look. MOJAVE SECRET - Have to think this one will make a good impression following the quick turn around. TIZ HAPPENS - Has been consistently racing well lately. In this field, this one is in the upper half of earnings per start in dirt sprint races.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Gulfstream

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 9 - Optional Claiming - 11.5f on the Turf. Purse: $48000 Class Rating: 108

FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER OR RESTRICTED ALLOWANCE OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $25,000. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER ON THE TURF SINCEMARCH 4 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000 (CONDITION



RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 3 BELISARIUS (IRE) 3/1


# 1 MORNING CALM 4/1


# 7 RUSSIAN GREEK 15/1


I have to consider BELISARIUS (IRE) here. Has garnered reliable speed figures in turf route races in the past. Posted a reliable Equibase Speed Figure in the last race. Can run another good one in this race. Overall the speed figures of this equine look competitive in this race. MORNING CALM - With a respectable 102 speed figure last time out, will unquestionably be a factor in this contest. Overall, has one of the top earnings per start in turf route contests in this bunch. RUSSIAN GREEK - He looks respectable in this slot and I expect will be on the front end or close at the midpoint. Ran a very strong last race.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Golden Gate - Race #1 - Post: 12:45pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $18,000 Class Rating: 92

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#1 TRAPPERS MAGIC (ML=3/1)


TRAPPERS MAGIC - At the top of the lane is when this one will make a big move. A terrific chance to be victorious. This mare is in good form. Finished third on March 8th.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 FRENCH ALPS (ML=6/5), #3 WILD BELLA (ML=7/2), #4 SHE'S FLUSH (ML=6/1),

FRENCH ALPS - A 'performance bounce' is likely to happen for this animal today. May rebound next time. WILD BELLA - Pedestrian speed rating last time around the track at Golden Gate at 1 mile. Don't think this vulnerable equine will improve too much in today's race. The bang up effort in the last race may knock this mare off stride this time around. SHE'S FLUSH - Tough for anyone who saw this racer in her last affair to invest in her today.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#1 TRAPPERS MAGIC is going to be the play if we are getting 1/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
1 with 4

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Pimlico - Race #2 - Post: 1:38pm - Starter Allowance - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $32,000 Class Rating: 88

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#1 HOLLY'S IMAGE (ML=6/1)
#5 BROWN RICE (ML=20/1)
#3 MARY'S MYSTIQUE (ML=5/1)


HOLLY'S IMAGE - The jock and trainer combination have a favorable return on investment when they are put together. The most dangerous animal in racing is the lone speed horse. If they let her get away early they probably won't catch her. BROWN RICE - Look for this filly to show better in this event. Last affair at Laurel Park finishing sixth on a track listed as good is no indication of her true talent. I'm optimistic this filly will run well today. Last work was 2nd fastest of the day, which tells me she's sharp right now. Last raced at Laurel Park carrying 7 pounds more. The lower weight carried in this event should serve her well. MARY'S MYSTIQUE - The morning line odds on this mare are higher than those of the other entrant from the shedrow of trainer Lake. Often the longer-priced part of a 'split' entry wins. A mare like this one, almost always in-the-money, usually makes an excellent trifecta key horse. Have to give this mare a shot. Ran a nice contest last out within the last month or so.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 STREETHOMEALABAMA (ML=3/5), #4 FLATTER'S SECRET (ML=4/1),

STREETHOMEALABAMA - This horse likes to land in the top three, but doesn't usually get the job done. Keep out of the top spot. The probable favorite is shaky here with the lack of drills. FLATTER'S SECRET - The youngster will have a hard time beating the veterans this time out.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - HOLLY'S IMAGE - One can conclude, given she finished off the board at Laurel Park last out, that this horse did not like the off track. I expect an improvement with better footing today.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Put your money on #1 HOLLY'S IMAGE on the nose if you can get odds of 3/1 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [1,3,5]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [1,3,5] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Ellis Starr at Keeneland

Race #10 - Rating = 3
Toyota Blue Grass Stakes

#4 Unrivaled - Fair odds 3/1
#5 Carpe Diem - Fair odds 3/1
#7 Classy Class - Fair odds 7/2
#3 Pepper Roani - Fair odds 5/1


Exacta: Box 3,4,5,7

Trifecta: Box 3,4,5,7


Unrivaled debuted last July and finished fifth, then improved to finish third before missing by a nose at Keeneland in a two-turn race last October. Given almost two months off, Unrivaled shortened up to one-turn, finishing second again. When sent long in his next race on December 23 he exploded with a tremendous burst of speed to win by 15 lengths with a career best 105 Equibase Speed Figure. To put that figure into perspective, Carpe Diem, the heavy favorite for this race, earned the same 105 figure winning the Tampa Bay Derby last month. Privately purchased by Team Valor International following that win, Unrivaled returned on March 15 after nearly three months off, a more mature three year old to be sure. In that race, Unrivaled lagged far back in the early stages and began a rally on the far turn. Still three lengths back with an eighth of a mile to run, Unrivaled lengthened his stride and won by five lengths with gas in the tank at the end. Considering Team Valor International knows how to get a horse ready for the Kentucky Derby, having won in 2011 with Animal Kingdom, and with experience at Keeneland, Unrivaled can make his mark in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes and post the upset.


Carpe Diem won the first two starts of his career including the Breeders' Futurity last October at Keeneland. Finishing second to six and one-half length winner Texas Red in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile in November, Carpe Diem was given time off to grow and mature. Returning last month in the Tampa Bay Derby and in spite of being away from the races for four months, Carpe Diem ran as if he had never been away, dominating to win by five lengths with a career best 105 Equibase Speed Figure. With logical improvement in his second start off the layoff, Carpe Diem should run even better and may be the deserved Blue Grass favorite with every right to win.


Classy Class is another horse being handled in a manner that suggests a big effort. He won a sprint in his debut last October then finished fourth in the Remsen Stakes at a mile and one-eight. Rested two and one-half months, Classy Class set the early pace in the Withers Stakes in February but had to battle head-and-head for much of the race before tiring to finish third. New tactics were on display in the Gotham Stakes last month as he raced sixth early before rallying for third. In the Gotham, Classy Class had some traffic issues at the top of the stretch then when asked to rally did so nicely, battling for second down to the wire as the winner drew off. Having improved from a 98 figure in the Gotham to a 100 figure in the Withers, Classy Class has the right to take another step forward and be a strong factor in the stretch of the Blue Grass Stakes.


For exotic wagers made such as the Exacta and Trifecta, I will be considering Pepper Roani as well. After five losses to begin his career, Pepper Roani added blinkers for start six and the result was a strong three length win with a career best 104 figure. In his next start, the John Battaglia Stakes, Pepper Roani raced far back and rallied very wide to finish second with no chance of catching the runaway winner. Hoping to run in the Spiral Stakes last month, the colt did not draw into the race as there were too many horses entered. With a new jockey, Miguel Mena, in the saddle and having run two races in a row that might be competitive if repeated in the Blue Grass, Pepper Roani is another to be considered as a contender.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Aqueduct

RACE #10 - AQUEDUCT - 5:30 PM EASTERN POST


The Wood Memorial

9.0 FURLONGS DIRT GRADE I THREE YEAR OLDS STAKES $1,000.000.00 PURSE

#5 EL KABEIR
#6 DAREDEVIL
#4 FROSTED
#1 TIZ SHEA D

From Rick's "Historical Research Department: The Wood Memorial is the last major New York prep race for the Kentucky Derby, and throughout its history has been a significant springboard to success at Churchill Downs. Beginning with Triple Crown winner Gallant Fox in 1930, 11 Wood winners have gone on to take the Run for the Roses. Included among them are Triple Crown winners Count Fleet (1943), Assault (1946) and Seattle Slew (1977), as well as Twenty Grand (1931), Johnstown (1939), Hoop Jr. (1945), Foolish Pleasure (1975), Bold Forbes (1976), Pleasant Colony (1981) and Fusaichi Pegasus (2000). All but a handful of Wood winners have gone on to run in the Derby, with 24 of them taking the favorite's role, most recently Bellamy Road in 2005. The roster of Wood winners who were beaten favorites in the Derby reads like a Who's Who in Racing, notably Empire Maker (2003), Easy Goer (1989), Damascus (1967), Bold Ruler (1957), Nashua (1955), Native Dancer (1953) and Phalanx (1947). The most stunning upset in Wood Memorial history was in 1973. Yes, Secretariat had lost before, in his very first race, but over his next 10 races he would finish 38-lengths ahead of his nearest rivals. While disqualified to second in the Champagne, his victories included the Sanford, Hopeful, Futurity, Laurel Futurity, Garden State, Bay Shore and Gotham Stakes, with the 1 1/8-mile Wood supposedly just another stop on his triumphant march to Louisville.

But Secretariat proved no match for his stablemate Angle Light, who zipped into the lead and never looked back, leaving the wonder horse to finish third. Trainer Lucien Laurin blamed an abscess in the colt's mouth for the loss, but many handicappers felt the race exposed Secretariat's distance limitations. (Of course, they were proven wrong). Secretariat was one of a number of horses who lost the Wood but went on to win at Churchill Downs. Triple Crown winner Omaha lost the Wood, as did Monarchos and Funny Cide, both of whom finished second but went on to win the Derby. Other horses who came back to win in Louisville after losing the Wood Memorial were Middleground, who finished second in 1950; Carry Back, who was second in 1961; Genuine Risk, who was third in 1980; and Go for Gin, who was second in 1994. First run in 1925, the race was named in honor of Eugene D. Wood, a politician and racing enthusiast who was a founder of the old Jamaica Racetrack, where the race was run until 1960.

The late Eddie Arcaro holds the record for the most victories in the Wood by a jockey with nine; trainer Sunny Jim Fitzsimmons holds the record for trainers with seven Wood winners. Among current trainers, Nick Zito has three Wood wins on his resume, most recently with Bellamy Road, who set a stakes record of 1:47.16 in 2005.

Here in the 91st running of "The Wood" ... #5 EL KABEIR is the overall speed and pace profile leader n this stakes field racing at, or about, today's distance of 9.0 furlongs on the dirt, and has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in five straight, winning three times in this recent streak of racing consistency. Jockey Charles Lopez has been in his irons on three previous occasions, hitting the board in each, winning twice, and is back today for his 4th ride, gunning for a "Hat Trick Win!" #6 DAREDEVIL, the morning line favorite, has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in three of his four career starts to date, including a pair of "Circle Trips" found in his 3rd and 4th races back.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Wood, BG, SA Derby Previews
By Anthony Stabile

Welcome to “Anthony’s Eleven,” your source for anything and everything leading up to Kentucky Derby 141 on May 2nd at historic Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. In the coming weeks, Anthony Stabile, best known for picking 2003 Kentucky Derby winner Funny Cide at odds of over 12-1, will break down the top contenders for this years Run for the Roses, culminating on Friday, May 1st with an extensive analysis of every runner that steps into the gate for the most exciting two minutes in sports.

Anthony's Eleven

Rank Horse Jockey Trainer Next Race Derby Points

1 Mubtaahij Christophe Soumillon Mike de Kock Kentucky Derby (5/2 at CD) 100
2 Far Right Mike Smith Ron Moquett Arkansas Derby (4/11 at OP) 22
3 Dortmund Martin Garcia Bob Baffert Santa Anita Derby (4/4 at SA) 70
4 Frammento Gary Stevens Nick Zito Blue Grass (4/4 at KEE) 10
5 International Star Miguel Mena Mike Maker Louisiana Derby (3/28 at FG) 171
6 Firing Line Gary Stevens Simon Callaghan Kentucky Derby (5/2 at CD) 58
7 Dubai Sky Jose Lezcano Bill Mott Kentucky Derby (5/2 at CD) 50
8 Prospect Park Kent Desormeaux Clifford Sise, Jr. Santa Anita Derby (4/4 at SA) 20
9 Frosted Joel Rosario Kiaran McLaughlin Wood Memorial (4/4 at Aqu) 13
10 Upstart Jose Ortz Rick Violette, Jr. Kentucky Derby (5/2 at CD) 76
11 War Story Joe Talamo Tom Amoss Kentucky Derby (5/2 at CD) 44



Three more 100 point Kentucky Derby prep races are on tap this Saturday, one week after Materiality, International Star and the new top dog on “Anthony’s Eleven,” Mubtaahij punched their tickets to Louisville with wins in the Florida Derby, Louisiana Derby and UAE Derby, respectively.

And while I doubt any one of those three from last week will go off as the chalk just four weeks from now at Churchill Downs, there is a pretty good chance, especially if the morning line proves true in either the G1 Blue Grass or G1 Santa Anita Derby, that the Kentucky Derby favorite is running this Saturday.

Oddly enough, we’ll start this weeks’ action in New York with the race that probably won’t produce the Derby favorite, the G1 Wood Memorial going 1 1/8 miles over the Aqueduct main track. Only seven will run, as Far From Over was forced to withdraw with an injury, while others, like Upstart, opted for another prep race.

Trainer Todd Pletcher may have lost Far From Over but he may still saddle the favorite in Daredevil. Daredevil won the first two starts of his career, including the G1 Champagne, over wet tracks before running poorly in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, his first try around two turns and over a dry course.

Daredevil resurfaced some four months later in the G2 Swale going seven furlongs at Gulfstream. Breaking from the rail under regular rider Javier Castellano, Daredevil was taken off the pace and raced wide on the turn but failed to make any impact late, finishing an even second as the 3-5 favorite. He’ll break from post 6.

Like Daredevil, Frosted ships up from Florida for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin and comes into this off one of the most mind-boggling efforts I’ve ever seen on a racetrack. After finishing second in the G3 Holy Bull to start the season, Frosted was entered in the G2 Fountain of Youth, sporting blinkers for the first time.

Frosted broke alertly, was forwardly placed throughout and made the lead approaching the far turn with the utmost of ease and looked ready to win for fun. But once the field straightened for the wire, Frosted stopped like he was hit with a baseball bat under Irad Ortiz, Jr. and settled for fourth. In the days and weeks after the race, McLaughlin still hasn’t been able to offer up any excuse for the effort but has trained Frosted aggressively and makes a rider switch to Joel Rosario. He’ll break from post 4.

El Kabeir has called the Big Apple home the entire winter and will look to defend his turf while coming off what was arguably his most impressive effort to date in the G3 Gotham last out, when he came from well off the pace to win by 2 ¾ lengths for trainer John Terranova, III.

After winning the G2 KJC at Churchill on the front end in his final start of last season, El Kabeir rated just off the pace in his G3 Jerome score before fading to second as the 1-2 chalk in the G3 Withers two back when he got cooked up in a mid-race pace battle. As he has all year, Chuckie Lopez will ride from post 5.

Gotham runner-up Tiz Shea D attended a quick pace throughout in his latest, his first over a wet track, around two turns and for his new connections, including trainer Bill Mott, and battled nicely along the inside to regain place money in just the second start of his career. Tiz Shea D broke his maiden easily in a Parx sprint back in February. Manny Franco rides for the first time from the rail.

Toasting Master set the pace in the Gotham for trainer Dale Romans before fading through the stretch to finish fourth. Two starts back, it was the same story in a Florida bred stakes over the Polytrack at the Ocala Training Center. Angel Arroyo has the return call from post 2.

New York bred Tencendur took a ton of action off of a fourth place finish in the Withers when adding blinkers in the Gotham from post 9. He raced wide throughout without ever seriously contending before finishing fifth. He’ll try again from post 7 for trainer George Weaver and new rider Jose Ortiz.

Lieutenant Colonel had a bit of trouble at the break in the Gotham but I doubt it was the main reason he finished last of ten in his only start other than his debut tally going a mile at Gulfstream for Chad Brown. Irad Ortiz, Jr. rides from post 3.

Pletcher will certainly saddle the favorite in the Blue Grass at Keeneland as Carpe Diem is even money on the morning line against seven others going 1 1/8 miles on the dirt. This will be the first time the Blue Grass is run four weeks out from the Kentucky Derby.

Carpe Diem returns to the scene of his biggest triumph, having easily taken the G1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland last fall after his debut tally and before his second place finish in the Juvenile, a race in which he looked like he’d be off the board before rallying in the stretch.

Like Daredevil, Carpe Diem was given a four month break and returned in the G2 Tampa Bay Derby. Carpe Diem sat a couple of lengths off of the early pace and made the lead as he pleased before cruising to a five length score under his regular pilot John Velazquez, who’ll guide him from post 5.

Classy Class ships in off of a pair of third place finishes in the Withers and Gotham for McLaughlin with Junior Alvarado in the saddle. Winless since his debut victory, Classy Class was up against a pair of biases in the G2 Remsen last year and in the Withers this year then was given a brutal ride by Alvarado last out, first allowing El Kabeir to get inside position on him, then getting steadied a couple of times on the far turn. He’ll break from post 7 and needs to fire his best shot if he is to take down the favorite.

Two time Kentucky Derby winner Nick Zito ships in Frammento from Florida, hoping this colt can prove worthy of a chance to run for the roses. Frammento, whose lone win in six tries came over this track, added blinkers last out and was the only one making up any ground when third in the G2 Fountain of Youth. Gary Stevens rides for the first time from post 6.

Ocho Ocho Ocho suffered the first loss of his career when returning from a three month layoff in the G2 San Felipe at Santa Anita last out when he encountered some traffic in the early going, suffering some superficial cuts to his legs in the process. Last year, Ocho Ocho Ocho won all three starts, including the G3 Delta Jackpot for trainer Jim Cassidy. He’ll break from the rail with Santiago Gonzalez.

Mark Casse’s Danzig Moon went into the Tampa Bay Derby with a ton of buzz after an impressive maiden score in his first start of the year but never fired, finishing a non-threatening fourth. Julien Leparoux rides from post 8.

Gorgeous Bird had his two race win streak snapped when he tried two turns and stepped up into stakes company in the Fountain of Youth most recently when he finished fifth for Ian Wilkes. He’ll be reunited with B.J. Hernandez, his rider as a juvenile, for this. He’ll break from post 4.

Pepper Roani added blinkers two starts back and broke his maiden in the sixth start of his career then finished second in the Battaglia Memorial over the Turfway Polytrack for Mike Mena. He’ll break from post 3 with Miguel Mena. Unrivaled won his last pair by daylight at Parx for trainer Marya Montoya and gets a rider change to Robby Albarado from post 2.

Out in California, the undefeated Dortmund leads a field of six in the G1 Santa Anita Derby going 1 1/8 miles on the main track for Bob Baffert, who’ll also send out One Lucky Dane.

After coming from just off the pace in his three juvenile victories, jockey Martin Garcia has kept Dortmund in the game more as a sophomore. He alternated on the lead through most of his gutsy score in the G3 Robert Lewis then went gate-to-wire last out in the G2 San Felipe. It’ll be interesting to see what Garcia does from his rail draw in here.

One Lucky Dane broke his maiden in the third start of his career, his first on dirt, and was so impressive that Baffert ran him back in the Juvenile where he finished sixth. In his lone start this year, a little over two weeks ago, he won an allowance/optional claimer by nearly 10 lengths. Rafael Bejarano returns from post 2.

The second and third place finishers from the San Felipe, Prospect Park and Bolo, are back for another crack at Dortmund and will likely take two different approaches to beating him.

Trained by Clifford Sise, Jr., Prospect Park came from off the pace last out to grab the place money from Bolo but still finished 1 ¼ lengths behind the winner. His rider, Kent Desormeaux, admitted after the race that he tried to “hide” from Dortmund, knowing his penchant for responding favorably to a tussle. He’ll break from post 5.

Bolo, on the other hand, took the fight to Dortmund on the far turn and stayed with him to deep stretch before tiring ever so slightly in the final sixteenth for trainer Carla Gaines. It was Bolo’s first start in nine weeks and first on dirt as he won two of his three starts last year, including the Eddie Logan, on the grass. Mike Smith rides from post 4.

Jerry Hollendorfer sends out Cross the Line, runner-up in the G3 El Camino Real Derby over the synthetic surface at Golden Gate Fields last out. In fact, Cross the Line has made all five of his career starts at that northern California track, including his win in the California Derby two back. Juan Hernandez rides from post 3.

Bad Read Sanchez returns from an eight month layoff for trainer Doug O’Neill and Mario Gutierrez from post 6. Bad Read Sanchez broke his maiden here in his debut then finished second in a minor stakes at Los Alamitos before finishing third in the G3 Best Pal over the synthetic surface at Del Mar.

Prep Play of the Day

Last week we hit the saver exacta in the Florida Derby and got split in the Louisiana Derby. Dems da breaks. This week, bet $40 to win on Frosted in the Wood Memorial and make a $30 exacta using Dortmund over Bolo in the Santa Anita Derby. Total cost is $70. Good luck!!!!

Bankroll: Minus $58

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

A look at Saturday's Derby preps
By The Wizard

There are 21 3-year-olds that will run in Saturday’s three Kentucky Derby prep races. Only three – Frosted in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, Classy Class in the Blue Grass at Keeneland, and Cross the Line in the Santa Anita Derby – have raced at 1 1/8 miles. All three were defeated. In these Derby preps, the Wizard is searching for clues about a horse’s ability to handle 1 1/4 miles on the first Saturday in May. Distance limitation is a common denominator among many of this year’s 3-year-olds.

Wood Memorial

DAREDEVIL will be the favorite with EL KABEIR the second choice. Daredevil’s second-place finish in the Grade 2 Swale at Gulfstream at seven furlongs off a four-month layoff was a good sharpener for the Wood. Daredevil has yet to win around two turns. Both his victories have been on wet tracks. With rain expected in New York on Friday evening and ending Saturday morning, it is unlikely the track will be wet by post time for the Wood, which could make Daredevil a bit vulnerable.

El Kabeir showed a new dimension winning the Gotham closing from further back than in his prior seven starts. The fact that he can be placed anywhere during the running and has more wins (four) than any of his opposition certainly makes him formidable. My concern with El Kabeir is his ability to be as effective stretching out to 1 1/8 miles for the first time. I am not certain how good he really is following three races this winter on the inner track at Aqeuduct, facing less than stellar fields.

FROSTED looked odds-on to win the Fountain of Youth on Feb. 21 turning for home, but flattened out in the final eighth-mile after setting the pace for a good part of his journey. The fractions were faster than they initially appeared to be. Frosted has better form on the Aqueduct main track than any of his opposition. The fact that he was narrowly defeated in last year’s Remson over this course and distance suggests that he has every right to improve Saturday, especially returning to rating tactics.

LIEUTENANT COLONEL was eliminated at the start in the Gotham. He appears to be the most interesting of the longshots in the field.

The Wizard finds it difficult to latch on to any one horse to “key” on in the Wood. Instead, I will use this race as part of the $500,000-guaranteed all-graded stakes pick four (Races 8-11). This wager can be found on my Aqueduct Betting Window and the Simulcast Best Bets Sheet.

Santa Anita Derby

It’s very difficult to knock the credentials of the heavy favorite DORTMUND, who is undefeated in five career starts and is 3 for 3 over the Santa Anita dirt surface. Dortmund is making his first start at 1 1/8 miles, but based on his physical attributes and the manner in which he rates so comfortably, he should not have any issues handling the distance and farther. He is more a one-paced runner, who distributes his speed evenly, than a horse who is agile and has a quick turn of foot. In small fields his tactical speed helps him avoid trouble. In fields like the Kentucky Derby with 20 horses, traffic troubles could compromise his chances. Facing five rivals in the Santa Anita Derby gives Dortmund the upper hand.

PROSPECT PARK and BOLO, who finished second and third behind Dortmund in the San Felipe, obviously pose the biggest dangers. From a wagering standpoint, the Santa Anita Derby is pass race but it does offer a potential key horse in the late pick four.

Blue Grass

CARPE DIEM will go off the shortest price of the morning-line favorites in the three Kentucky Derby preps. There is quite a drop off between him and the quality of his opposition. Carpe Diem’s five-length victory in the Tampa Bay Derby in his first start as a 3-year-old, which came off four-month layoff, was very impressive. That sets him up well for a victory in the Blue Grass. His lone defeat was a second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Carpe Diem won the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity last fall in his only start at Keeneland. His tactical speed will allow jockey John Velazquez to place him wherever he wants early on.

Of the three Kentucky Derby preps, the Blue Grass is the only race that offers a decent wagering opportunity, even though Carpe Diem will be odds-on. I am attracted to both the exactas and trifectas in the Blue Grass. The odds on the other seven runners will be well spread out. I feel that OCHO OCHO OCHO will improve on his eighth-place finish in the San Felipe with a more alert start, and CLASSY CLASS will benefit from being back on a dry surface and being more forwardly placed early in the race.

My suggested wagers are:

Exactas (5) CARPE DIEM over (1) OCHO OCHO OCHO and (7) CLASSY CLASS, reverse both for one-fourth as much
Trifecta 5 over 1-7 over ALL = $24 for a $2 wager
Trifecta 5 over ALL over 1-7 = $12 for a $1 wager

Saturday’s Full Card Selections & Betting Window will be available Friday for Aqueduct-Keeneland-Santa Anita as well as Oaklawn. Wagering strategies for all races are in the Betting Window as well as pick four plays, which can also be found on my Simulcast Best Bets Sheet.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Woodbine Harness: Saturday 4/4 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF HARNESS

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Race 11 – Mandatory Jackpot Hi Five Payout

EARLY $1 PICK 4:

4,5,8/1/2,3,9/2,3,7,9 = $36

HIGH-5 (MANDATORY PAYOUT) PLAY:

4/2,5,7,8,11/2,5,7,8,11/2,5,6,7,8,9,10,11/2,5,6,7,8,9,10,11 = $120

MEET STATS: 118 - 383 / $635.60 BEST BETS: 16 - 37 / $88.00

SPOT PLAYS: 6 - 36 / $59.20

Best Bet: PANTHEON HANOVER (3rd)

Spot Play: CAMAES FELLOW (11th)


Race 1

(6) GIVE ME AN AMEN is one that has been on our radar the past couple of weeks showing quick bursts in the final 1/16ths of her miles. She drops to her lowest class yet here and although it looks like a competitive dash she should be right there with these. (4) A REAL COMMITMENT has really stepped it up in the Nixon barn and looks a threat again here. (5) LARJON LAURA won easily and powerfully off the claim and steps up again but should be heard from.

Race 2

(6) DAYLON MAGICIAN looked briefly like he was spinning his wheels in the stretch last week, but his heart and class kicked in and he got the job done. He should be tighter and even tougher tonight; top call. (3) BURNIN MONEY was coming fast late and fell just short to the choice. He is an obvious threat again. (5) FEARLESS MAN showed the effects of missing 3 weeks action when he faded late. He should last longer here back on the 7-day rotation.

Race 3

(2) PANTHEON HANOVER left hard with others last week, briefly went off-stride, took a tuck then made a bold rush to the front only to be repelled. That was a huge mile all considered and he should be a good price here; top call. (3) DIALAMARA also went a big mile first up and won the fastest division of this series. He is the obvious danger but will offer little value on the win end. (5) LEGION OF BOOM returned from a break and went right down the road to beat the choice. He likely won't get the same breather that he took in the 2nd 1/4 last week.

Race 4

(5) SANTANNA BLUE CHIP has started his 10YO season in excellent form and looks as though he has found a field he can beat here. (4) HIDDEN POTENTIAL went a big first up trip to win a class lower. He can get a big share here, too. (8) FOREVER JUST makes his third start on this circuit and drops in class and moves in a couple of posts. He's a good one to keep on pick 4 tickets at a price.

Race 5

(1) EXTRACURRICULAR stepped up to this class off a big win and came with a big rally that fell just short. He should be tough here starting from the inside. (5) THE ONLY ONE rallied strongly when reverting to a more effective closing style and he should be heard from late here, too. (5) SLIP INTO GLIDE went too fast early and paid the price late. He has been showing some signs of getting back to the form that made him so effective last year.

Race 6

(9) WHOSURPAL was so dominant last week first off the claim for Nixon that he merits this somewhat hefty class raise. (3) MODERN EXHIBIT was also a very good winner pacing away first-over a class lower and should be tough again. (2) LETS ROCK TOGETHER ships in from Pocono for Menary and makes his third start of the season here after showing speed last out. He had an excellent record last year and shouldn't be ignored.

Race 7

(2) MMS LUCKY BOY races much better when starting from inside posts and should offer a square price here; top call. (3) BAX OF LIFE drops out of the Preferred and this group are more her people. (9) WINDSONG GEANT has hit top form and is likely to be good for a while now; using on pick 4 tickets.

Race 8

(6) TEAM CAPTAIN has to be put into the race earlier one of these times, doesn't he? Maybe tonight in a shorter field he shows what he can really do. (3) AMERICAN ROCK raced huge in the lead last week carving big fractions all the way and just failing to last. He is the one to beat. (1) J JS DELIVERY tired very late in the WEGZ series final and was nailed on the wire. He missed the first leg of this series and will looking to make hay here.

Race 9

(1) ALEXAS JACKPOT was stymied by the lack of flow last week but there should be more action in this race and he has really come around the past two starts in this highest class. (5) APPRENTICE HANOVER returns to his home base following two failed tries in the Levy series. These should be more to his liking. (3) NICKLE BAG chased after the speed first-up last week and faltered late. He should be able to get some cover here and nab a share.

Race 10

(2) RAMBLINGAMBLINMAN continues to fire off some of the quickest late speed on the circuit week after week. He should get speed to chase here and some good flow to follow; top call. (1) SPINFINITI is a big threat to double up here from the rail and should be on late pick 4 tickets. (6) GRANDE SEELSTER won easily off the claim but steps into a much tougher class here. A minor award may be his ceiling here.

Race 11

(4) CAMAES FELLOW returns to a 7-day rotation and will be the one making the pace in this mandatory payout Jackpot High-5 event. He is our single on top. (8) COUGAR HALL drops back to a class where he was narrowly beaten two starts back; contender. (5) SUNNY BEACH DAY continues to put good miles together and was beaten only right on the money last week by one he provided cover for. He can get a piece of this. (2) BILBO HANOVER closed rapidly for third vs. two that would make some big noise if they were in here; using. (7) JOSHUA MY BOY is likely to be closest to the choice early and can hang on for a share.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Balmoral: Saturday 4/4 Analysis
By Jeremey Day

DRF HARNESS

Race 9 - $15,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet (12 - 18 / $44.60): SOUTHERN GIRL (6th)

Spot Play: SOFT VELVET (3rd)


Race 1

(4) HOT STREAK HANOVER drops back down to the bottom level and could be freshened up for a better effort. (7) CD'S IDEAL will look to make it three straight wire to wire victories; fires early. (1) AWESOME ABE looks to be in line for a great trip up close.

Race 2

(7) MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE has made breaks in two of this last three starts but will be tough to beat if he stays trotting. (8) A LOCAL BAND faces much easier and could hit the ticket with a smooth trip. (9) AGENT BOOTH could be primed for a better effort second start back off a long layoff.

Race 3

(7) SOFT VELVET pacing mare is racing much better than her lines indicate and should offer value in an evenly matched race. (6) IF I DIDNT DREAM drops into a spot where she can compete; threat. (4) LYRICS FALL was the driver's choice of four and showed a good burst of speed last out.

Race 4

(9) PREEMPTIVE BID was the driver's choice and will be used aggressively. (6) DONT WORRY B HAPPY was very close to a good group of horses last out and should offer a nice price. (3) RICKY BOBBIE drops back down and has been pacing up a storm late; threat.

Race 5

(5) ROCKIN' COUGAR was an easy winner first start off a long layoff and has plenty of room to improve. (1) DAKOTA ROADSTER just missed to the top choice last out and gets the best post. (7) LITTLE HANK never got into the race last week but should be closer turning for home.

Race 6

(5) SOUTHERN GIRL was hand driven the entire length of the stretch and had much more to offer; big chance. (3) SPORTY PROJECT picks up a positive driver change and has room to improve in her third career start. (7) RAVISHING IMAGE well bred filly picks up a provisional pilot but looks to be loaded with talent.

Race 7

(4) FRISKIE FLICKER drew off impressively last start and will do it again with a similar effort. (5) MOON BAY DANCER mare is sharp right now and is one of few threats in the race to the top choice. (7) SUN DREAM mare gets sent out for a hot barn and has been competitive against this bunch.

Race 8

(10) JACKSON'S IMAGE was the driver's choice and looks to have lots of upside. (9) TEE ROY was super impressive last out and looks to be improving. (6) RED HOT ART pacer has flashed a big late kick but has trouble staying pacing; command a price.

Race 9

In a wide open and evenly matched field (2) KOSTAS WINE went a big effort saving ground up the rail last start and looks to offer value in a wide open race. (8) LUCKY CRUSADER was the driver's choice of three and takes a significant drop in class. (3) EMPLOYESS GO WILD went from awesome to empty last out but can hit the ticket with something close to his effort two starts ago.

Race 10

In another tough race to gauge (5) LIZZABELLE mare needs a some racing luck along with a smooth trip to score at a price. (3) PARKLANE SPARKLE has been consistent but needs more late; command a price. (4) PARK LANE CRYSTAL mare rarely wins but faces a soft bunch and should be in the mix.

Race 11

(10) WILDCAT BOBBY is sharp right now and will offer a big price against a heavy favorite. (6) CAMWISER will look to make it six straight wins; fires early. (7) MAJOR MALE was the driver's choice and is versatile.

Race 12

(2) SEEYOUATTHEFINISH mare is back in good form and is one of few threats in the race. (7) STATE STREET LIZ takes a big drop in class and is likely the only threat to the top choice. (5) GENTLE JANET pacing mare was the driver's choice and can hit the ticket underneath with a good effort.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Meadowlands: Saturday 4/4 Analysis
By Derick Giwner

DRF HARNESS

Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 3 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Race 7 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

MEET STATS: 143 - 547 / $770.30 BEST BETS: 19 - 45 / $70.70

Best Bet: DYNAMIC YOUTH (4th)

Spot Play: K SLATER (3rd)


Race 1

(1) MY NAME IS SAM came up a bit short last time here, but that was a brave effort regardless. He looks like the clear chalk in this spot. (4) GOKUDO HANOVER got back in the win column with a decisive score a week ago; main danger. (6) BIG CITY JEWEL hangs a bit too much in the stretch to get my attention in the top spot. He is worth using underneath.

Race 2

(6) MURDER HE WROTE finished willingly enough last time when you consider the mile went in 1:50 1/5 and that was his first start since September. This is a short field with no standouts. Any improvement makes him a winner. (5) HEART FELT moves into a good barn and has high speed ; dangerous. (1) THAT’S MY OPINION was an expensive yearling that has yet to pan out. The talent may still be there, but qualifying win was nothing to write home about.

Race 3

(5) K SLATER is more than likely going to blast off the wings of the gate and try to take this abbreviated field down the road. Tom Fanning trainee looks like a very interesting price play. (3) DIAMOND SAID has won two straight and now moves into another high percentage barn. I’d expect a good effort, but will he be as good? (7) BREAKIN THE LAW could be the other early speed in the field. If he finds a nice seat, he’ll at least get into the exotics.

Race 4

(3) DYNAMIC YOUTH wasn’t going anywhere in his 2015 debut from an outside post versus one of the sharpest horse on the grounds. Near millionaire should be ready for a peak effort in his second start back; all systems go! (4) IDEALBEACH HANOVER chased Rockeyed Optimist for three weeks in the Clyde Hirt series with no luck. Now he seems to get class relief but has to face the top choice; second best. (5) IDEAL MAGIC has as good a chance of finishing second as the #4. It will likely come down to the trip.

Race 5

(1) MAMBO ITALIANO reunites with Callahan and gets pylon position. He’ll either sit the pocket behind (5) SASSY HANOVER or try to brush and crush. The latter took a slightly easier group down the road a week ago; threat again. (3) ROCK STAR couldn’t close into the wind from post 10 last time; trip threat. (2) ALEX BULLVILLE & (6) RELENTLESS DREAMER are capable at this level.

Race 6

(7) K-LEES SHAKENBAKE was a bit short last week following a month on the shelf. With (6) WINDSONG GORGEOUS likely posting a solid pace, this guy should have every chance to nail him at the wire. The latter has been on a tear, but he has seemed a bit sharper in the Morgan barn and now he moves back to Mike Watson. He can win, but I’m playing against. (4) PANCHESTER UNITED was a decent third behind #6 last time out.

Race 7

(3) STEADY PULSE has a big motor for about a quarter of a mile. In a race where the purse is 2 1/2 times what these $10k claimers normally go for, I’d expect there to be some action up front and for him to change tactics. All he has to do is time his move right. (1) TRIPLE MAJOR has been fairly consistent and can take advantage from off the pace. (4) BUCKEYE IN CHARGE will be a big price and seems sharper than he looks on paper. (2) YOU BET YOUR GLASS enters a new barn. His mile two starts back would win this race.

Race 8

(4) JJ SHARK was certainly in against a sharper group in last week’s G Notes final. Driver David Miller had some fine options and stuck with this gelding. (3) DULL ROAR has proven he can win here and really had no shot at Pocono last time after sitting behind a slow pace. (9) MC ATTABOY gets a driver switch to Callahan and could be firing early in a field that lacks a ton of early zip.

Race 9

(4) RODEO ROMEO raced reasonably well versus much better foes in the Gilmour series. He looks like the clear one to beat. (6) COLORFUL SPEECH has plenty of early zip and I like the switch to Callahan. (1) CHUCARO ACERO BC qualified with Lasix. Maybe that will help.

Race 10

(3) MIGHTY YOUNG JOE hasn’t been especially sharp this year, but finds a dull group and has no excuses in this spot. (2) SEEK THE DRAGON has displayed success here, which is more than some of these can say. (6) SPORTS SINNER had no shot from post seven at Yonkers. I wouldn’t be shocked if he got rolling for this high percentage barn.

Race 11

(6) SWEET ROCK ships in on a five-race win streak and can take charge in this small field. (5) SMART ROKKER has been sharp for some time now but needs pace help up front to rally off cover. (4) ONTARIO SUCCESS would be no surprise but does come off a dull effort.

Race 12

(3) GRATIAS DEO moves into a barn that is 5-for-9 on the meet and faces a blank field. (5) JAKES SPUR has early speed to secure position; clear player. (6) LAST BEST CHANCE has been on quite a roll at Monticello and now takes his shot at the big track. (9) HURRIKANE JON PAUL qualified decently.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Saturday 4/4 Analysis
By Matt Rose

DRF HARNESS

MEET STATS: 96 - 297 / $484.60 BEST BETS: 12 - 23 / $41.60

Best Bet: FOILED AGAIN (8th)

Spot Play: FLIPPER J (3rd)


Race 1

(5) IN COMMANDO has been sharp in all recent efforts and he's shown the ability to leave the gate hard. (6) EIGHTEEN blasted out and went coast to coast last week at a big price; he gets a free ride in this class but he'll take more action at the windows. (2) HARD TO MACH lacks the winning habit but he should be close up from this spot.

Race 2

(1) MODEST PRINCE ships in from The Meadowlands where he was knocking heads with some really good trotters; as long as he behaves himself he should jog. (3) LORENZO DREAM can be forwardly placed and sit a good trip. (4) TAKE MY PICTURE fits with these and looks best of the rest.

Race 3

(2) FLIPPER J finally gets a good post to work with and the Bamond trainee should be close enough to strike. (3) TWIN B FAMOUS didn't leave the gate last week and therefore had no chance; he can fire to the front tonight. (1) DELCO ROCKNROLL also gets post relief and he was a solid winner from an inside post three back.

Race 4

(4) RU READY TO ROCK was third best last week to two rivals who would jog in here; Godinez trainee deserves top billing. (3) JD'S CALEB MAN has been ridiculously sharp in all recent and he's shown the ability to overcome tough trips. (1) TOWNSLIGHT HANOVER has been sneaky sharp and he draws best.

Race 5

(5) NOT AFRAID took a week off after winning five straight and the Takter trainee deserves the top call here despite the presence of big speed inside of him. (4) DW'S NY YANK finally found the winner's circle last week and he's an obvious threat to repeat. (2) TWEET ME went a rugged parked-out trip in last and still hung around for second but these are much tougher.

Race 6

(2) P H SUPERCAM took a chance sitting in last week but found room deep up the rail and exploded by to take his second straight Levy prelim; Bartlett should be able to land in a less stressful spot tonight and take his third straight. (6) CLEAR VISION held okay after a long uncovered battle last out; unless he fires hard he may be in line for another tough trip. (3) ASLAN gets a better post to work with.

Race 7

(2) VALIDUS DEO had no realistic chance in his first two seasonal efforts; from this improved spot be may Be able to stalk the speed and use one late run to upset. (1) SAPPHIRE CITY has looked much better in his last two races and he's an obvious speed threat from the rail. (3) BETTOR'S EDGE was left alone on the front end last week and had plenty left to sprint home; classy Burke trainee is capable of taking all.

Race 8

(2) FOILED AGAIN ended up third early in last week's contest and was forced to rough it first-over. From this spot tonight he'll be able to step over the rail horse and is practically guaranteed to be on the lead or in the pocket. I'm convinced this is his week. (6) MICHAEL'S POWER was outbattled to the wire last week by (3) POLAK A after firing to the lead; he will be forwardly placed again. The latter has looked awesome in his two U.S. starts but they were from the rail where he had a tactical advantage; it may be tougher to work out a winning trip tonight.

Race 9

(4) ONE THROUGH TEN has hit the board in all of his recent efforts flashing speed in each of them; expect that trend to continue from this spot. (5) OUTRAGEOUS ART steps up in class looking for three straight. (2) MR HASANI N should be close enough to land a share.

Race 10

Brett Miller elected not to retake and cut the mile with (1) DANCIN YANKEE last week and it cost him as the winner waltzed around the track. They get another chance from the rail tonight and something tells me he'll be more aggressively handled. (3) MACH IT SO has had two straight tough trips and he could only manage the third spot on both occasions. Gelding does have the ability to take all. (5) BEACH MEMORIES looks for three straight but note the barn change here to DiDomenico.

Race 11

(1) BULLET BOB was very stubborn in defeat in his local return and he can trip out from this rail spot. (4) HERE WE GO AGAIN rode the pocket trip to victory against lesser; I assume Bartlett will try to be on the move early with this veteran. (2) LIFE UP FRONT is also up in class off a win and he'll be close up throughout.

Race 12

(3) DAVID'S DREAM never fired last out chasing a rated pace; his prior effort he was aggressively handled in beating lesser so maybe Brennan will get on the move early. (1) ODYSSEUS BLUECHIP takes a needed drop in class and he may play the role of favorite from this spot. (2) SHOW ME UP hung off a live trip when hiked to this level; consider underneath.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Saturday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Aqueduct (4th) Pax in Terra, 5-1
(6th) Curious Cal, 5-1

Charles Town (2nd) lady Snabe, 3-1
(6th) Shepherd's Pride, 9-2

Golden Gate Fields (5th) Chat With Me, 8-1
(9th) Caymus Kat, 7-2

Gulfstream Park (3rd) Gotcha Key, 3-1
(7th) Joann's Wildcat, 4-1


Hawthorne (3rd) Lilly Kisses, 4-1
(5th) Offlee Fun, 5-1


Keeneland (5th) Island Town, 5-1
(11th) Groovy A, 6-1


Mahoning Valley (6th) Zipco, 7-2
(7th) Sweet Consolidator, 3-1


Mountaineer (1st) Bud Matic, 4-1
(8th) Majestic Kaz, 7-2


Oaklawn Park (2nd) Alamo City, 3-1
(7th) Luvin Bullies, 9-2


Parx Racing (2nd) O K Lefty, 6-1
(9th) Storm Summation, 7-2


Penn National (2nd) Eddie'sinthewoods, 4-1
(7th) Big Wags, 7-2


Pimlico (3rd) Paddington Express, 5-1
5th) Stock Quote, 5-1


Santa Anita (1st) Roper, 3-1
(10th Long Hot Summer, 7-2


Sunland Park (5th) Perfecta, 3-1
(6th) D E Slot Man, 6-1


Tampa Bay Downs (5th) Jakob's Way, 9-2
(9th) Don't Tell Vanessa, 4-1


Turf Paradise (5th) Silvanus, 7-2
(8th) Aly's Bobcat, 7-2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB

WISCONSIN (35 - 3) vs. KENTUCKY (38 - 0) - 4/4/2015, 8:45 PM

Top Trends for this game.
KENTUCKY is 30-16 ATS (+12.4 Units) in road games when playing with 5 or 6 days rest since 1997.
WISCONSIN is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all neutral court games over the last 2 seasons.
WISCONSIN is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
WISCONSIN is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) when playing on a neutral court over the last 2 seasons.
WISCONSIN is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
WISCONSIN is 24-14 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
WISCONSIN is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
KENTUCKY is 0-0 against the spread versus WISCONSIN over the last 3 seasons
KENTUCKY is 1-0 straight up against WISCONSIN over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


MICHIGAN ST (27 - 11) vs. DUKE (33 - 4) - 4/4/2015, 6:05 PM

Top Trends for this game.
DUKE is 23-14 ATS (+7.6 Units) in all games this season.
DUKE is 23-14 ATS (+7.6 Units) in all lined games this season.
DUKE is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all neutral court games this season.
DUKE is 10-0 ATS (+10.0 Units) on Saturday games this season.
DUKE is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) in road games after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
DUKE is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when playing on a neutral court this season.
DUKE is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) in non-conference games this season.
DUKE is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all tournament games this season.
DUKE is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
DUKE is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
DUKE is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 43-30 ATS (+10.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN ST is 43-30 ATS (+10.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN ST is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) in non-conference games this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN ST is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
DUKE is 2-0 against the spread versus MICHIGAN ST over the last 3 seasons
DUKE is 2-0 straight up against MICHIGAN ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB

Trends

WISCONSIN vs. KENTUCKY

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kentucky's last 5 games

Kentucky is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games


MICHIGAN STATE vs. DUKE

Duke is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Michigan State

Duke is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Michigan State

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Saturday's six-pack

-- 46,314 watched the Reds-Blue Jays game in Montreal last night; where were those people when they had a team in Montreal?

-- Game in Montreal took 2:10, which is too fast. 2-0 baseball games are generally not that much fun, epsecially when around 30% of that time is TV commercials.

-- Three countries in the world still don't use the metric system; United States, along with Burma and Liberia.

-- Dallas Mavericks are 9-16 against Western Conference playoff teams.

-- Twins' pitcher Ervin Santana gets 80 games for PEDs, the same steroid that got Ben Johnson DQ'd from the '88 Olympics.

-- Bowling Green's basketball coach was making $335,000 before he got fired this week; assistant coach who just left Missouri for another job was making $325,000.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

JOE WIZ

Saturday.... Over 191 Orlando and Milwaukee