ALL COMPS !!!!!!!!!!!!
Marc Lawrence
Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers
Prediction: Chicago Cubs
The Cubs send veteran Ted Lilly to the mound in Milwaukee against Doug Davis and the Brewers as Chicago looks to improve on its winning ways in this park. Lilly has cashed each of his last three starts in this series with a 2.87 ERA. Meanwhile, Davis enters at 2-1 in his starting efforts this campaign despite the fact he's posted an 11.25 ERA. Look for Chicago to improve to 12-6 in its last 18 games on this field here tonight.
Charlie Scott
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Play: Los Angeles Lakers +2
All the NBA playoff handicapping systems apply tonight, such as lost last or zig zag. However the most important factor I believe is that by playing on the Dog Lakers, we're getting one of the best teams in the NBA focused after Thursday nights loss getting points. I have to feel when the Lakers went on this road trip they would have settled for one win out of the 2 road games, Lakers WIN tonight ! Play early as I feel this line will move !
Rob Vinciletti ( GOLDENCONTENDER )
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Toronto Blue Jays
The Jays are off a nice big dog win last night in Tampa. Tonight we will look for them to do it again. They have superb lefty Romero on the mound tonight and he has a solid 1.57 era so far this season. He has allowed just 4 runs and 11 hits in 23 innings of work. Tampa counters with J.Nieman tonight and he has a 4.87 career era vs Toronto. In the battle of the bullpens the Jays have a huge edge as they have a 1.88 road era compared to the Rays 7.78 home mark. Toronto is 3-1 as a road dog in this range and 7-1 when the posted total is 8 to 8.5. With Tampa hitting just .214 vs Lefthanders this year we will back the Jays here tonight.
DAVID CHAN
Seattle Mariners @ Chicago White Sox
PICK: Seattle Mariners
Sure, I understand. Doug Fister’s numbers (2-1, ERA 1.42, WHIP 0.84) aren’t going to hold up all year. When the season started, he was the most likely guy to get bumped from the rotation when Cliff Lee returned. But at least he’s doing something this year, and the Mariners are finding a way to win games.
The White Sox are finding ways to lose games: 5-11 headed into Friday night. Chicago starter Freddy Garcia has never really recovered from ’07 shoulder surgery. It’s great that his old club is giving him a shot here, but he’s not major-league ready. In two starts this year he was drilled by the Jays and edged by the Twins. The headline stats against the Twins are good (7 IP, 2 ER) but he coughed up a tater and issued five walks. In ten innings total this season he’s fanned seven while walking eight—a bad ratio.
The Mariners’ offense isn’t really clicking, but Seattle should be -130 or so in this one. Best of luck in all your bets, DC.
BIG AL
Florida Marlins @ Colorado Rockies
PICK: Florida Marlins
Perhaps Ricky Nolasco's slow start will be over much quicker than it was in 2009. Last season the righthanded ace of the Marlins rotation got off to such a bad start in April and May that he was sent to the minors at the end of that stretch to try and work things out. Nolasco came back up to the big leagues in early June and for the most part he pitched lights-out from that point forward. This season, Nolasco may have kicked his slow start after only his third start. Nolasco's first two outings were below average, especially for a guy as talented as he is who completely tore up the grapefruit league in spring training. But in his third and latest start, Nolasco went into one of the most dangerous places in baseball - Citizen's Bank Park - and almost threw a complete game shutout. He held the powerful Phillies lineup in check until the final out when Nolasco let a pitch get away and Jason Werth hit a two-run homer. Nolasco of course got the final out minutes later and although he would have loved to shut out the defending champs, a complete game, five-hitter is not too shabby. Coors field may be one of the most dreaded parks for most Major League pitchers, but Nolasco seems to like it there very much. In two career starts there, Nolasco is 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA and 12 strikeouts with just two walks in 14 innings. Take the Marlins.
LEE KOSTROSKI
Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals
PICK: Kansas City Royals
Nick Blackburn was about as consistent as it gets in 2008 and 2009, featuring identical 11-11 records and nearly identical season ERA numbers. Blackburn was very sharp early last season, even garnering some attention as an all-star candidate before fading for a few months and then delivering a strong September in the playoff push for the Twins. So far in 2010, Blackburn has looked like the struggling mid-season pitcher, laboring through three unproductive starts. Blackburn has allowed 23 hits and six home runs in his three outings and he has walked six batters while striking out just seven. Walking two batters per game seems like a normal figure but Blackburn walked just 41 batters in over 205 innings last year. Blackburn has clearly been off in the early going and he again faces a Royals lineup that hit him hard last week.
The Royals are 3-0 behind Luke Hochevar this season and it has been no fluke. Hochevar was a highly regarded prospect for years and he appears to finally be living up to his vast potential. After posting terrible numbers in 2008 and 2009 thrown in as a starter with lousy support, Hochevar appears to have gained from the experience, allowing just six earned runs in three starts so far this season. Hochevar has allowed just 17 hits in three games and he has allowed just one home run. Hochevar beat the Twins on the road last week, limiting a red hot offense to just two earned runs over six innings. The Kansas City bullpen has struggled but Hochevar has been able to go deep into his starts this season.
Minnesota has won every series so far this season but there have been no sweeps as the Twins seem to put a bad game together every so often. Minnesota started the year as a red hot offensive team but the Twins have cooled off considerably over the last six games and the team average has fallen to .264. In road games this season the Twins have hit just .208 against right-handed pitching and keep in mind four of the eight road games played by the Twins took place in a high scoring park in Anaheim.
The Royals are a losing team in the early going but this is a team that has delivered a huge improvement on offense. The early season pitching has not been as sharp for the Royals compared with last season but Kansas City is hitting .296 as a team. Kansas City has scored at least three runs in all but one game this season and the Royals should have some confidence in this series after holding their own on a very difficult nine-game road trip and also having success against Blackburn the last time out. Blackburn was pushed back a day in his start with an elbow issue and he clearly is not in top form at the moment with a rough early start, creating an opportunity to go against him with underdog value.
STEVE MERRIL
Tigers @ Rangers
PICK: Tigers (RL)
Detroit tries to begin a new winning streak in Arlington on Saturday night as they take on the Rangers. Texas provided Dontrelle Willis with his first Tigers victory in his short career with the team last May when Willis went 6.3 innings giving up just one hit while striking out 5 and walking two against the Rangers. In 2008, Willis gave up just three runs and two hits in five innings to the Rangers in a no decision.
Willis has been solid so far this season going 0-1 with a 4.24 ERA in three starts. He took the loss in his last start, but he gave up only four hits and two runs in six innings of work against the Angels. Josh Hamilton (0-3), Nelson Cruz (0-3), Elvis Andrus (0-3), David Murphy (0-2), Chris Davis (0-2) and Taylor Teagarden (0-2) are all looking for their first hits off the lefty. Texas, as a team, is just 1-5 against left-handed starters scoring only 2.7 runs per game while hitting .186 against them. Over their last eight games, Texas is hitting below .200 as a team.
Texas’ Scott Feldman had his start pushed back one day as he's dealing with a stomach virus. Feldman is 1-1 with a 4.41 ERA and is coming off a short outing in New York against the Yankees. Feldman is 0-1 with a 9.72 ERA in two starts against Detroit including a horrible outing in July where he gave up six runs and 10 hits in 2.3 innings of work. Adam Everett (3-8), Carlos Guillen (3-6), Miguel Cabrera (2-5) and Ryan Raburn (1-3) have had good numbers against the righty.
BEN BURNS
Dodgers @ Nationals
PICK: Under 9.5
Yesterday's series opener stayed below the total with the Nationals earning a 5-1 victory. The projected starters for this afternoon's game are Clayton Kershaw for LA and Craig Stammen for Washington. Both were very good to me in their last game.
I played on the Dodgers in Kershaw's last start and the LA ace delivered a gem, allowing one run through seven complete innings. He gave up just four hits while striking out nine. He didn't get the victory but the Dodgers still won, defeating the Giants by a 2-1 score.
In case anyone thought his performance vs. the Giants was a fluke, let's not forget that Kershaw had a 2.79 ERA last season and that he allowed a mere 6.3 hits per nine innings. That was the best mark in all of baseball! He also had more K's than inning pitched last season and that's been the case through this season's first three starts, as well. Clearly, he's got "great stuff."
Stammen was also good to me in his last start, as he helped me cashed my ticket on the Nationals and Rockies to finish below the total. Stammen had struggled in his first two starts. However, as I noted on Monday, those starts were both against Philadelphia, currently the highest-scoring team in the league. Facing a slightly less potent offense, Stammen bounced back in a big way. Indeed, he went eight very strong innings and gave up just five hits and two runs. He only walked one batter and had five K's. He earned the "W," with the Nationals winning by a score of 5-2.
That great outing should give Stammen some much-needed confidence. He should also benefit from the fact this is his first appearance vs. the Dodgers, so the LA hitters aren't familiar with him.
Note that Kershaw allowed just one run (in five innings) in his lone 2009 start vs. the Nationals. With 10 of Kershaw's last 13 starts staying below the total and with both pitchers coming off such a well-pitched game, take a look at the UNDER.
Jim Feist
Cubs vs. Brewers
Play: Over 9
Reason: Milwaukee has been an over team, on a 6-3-1 run over the total, putting up 8 or more runs in 6 of those 10 games, even hanging 20 on the Pirates. Milwaukee is an easy home run park, too. The Brewers outscored the Pirates 36-1 in a three-game series! The Cubs come to town with a pitcher who has been rehabbing in veteran Ted Lilly. His ERA is 4.43 against the Brewers. Milwaukee goes with soft throwing Doug Davis, who has frightening numbers with an 11.25 ERA, allowing 24 hits and 30 base runners in 12 innings. The Cubs have already faced him, blasting 6 runs off him in 3 innings. Play the Cubs/Brewers over the total.
Nelly
Toronto + over Tampa Bay
Few pitchers have been better than Ricky Romero so far in 2010. Romero has allowed just four runs and eleven hits over 23 innings of work. His walks have been under control and he has allowed just one home run while striking out 22. Romero has been a big reason why the Jays have enjoyed a solid start to the year and he has also contributed to Toronto’s strong bullpen showing early in the year by going deep into games and allowing for rest on days when he starts. Tampa Bay has been a red hot team but the Rays are hitting just .209 against left-handed pitching. Tampa Bay has not been a strong hitting team so far this season despite the ability to score runs in the early going. Tampa Bay's great early season record has been built on feasting on struggling teams as well, playing Baltimore six times while also catching Chicago and Boston while those teams are not playing well. Against the Yankees, the Rays went 1-2, the only winning team they have faced at this point. Jeff Niemann is a solid groundball pitcher but all indications are that a set-back year could be in order this season after a great rookie year. His early numbers are strong but somewhat phony as he has allowed a great deal of hits and his control has not been overly sharp. The Rays have also survived despite a shaky bullpen so far this season, featuring a 4.50 ERA for the year including a 7.78 mark at home. Toronto's lineup received a boost with Aaron Hill back in action and the Blue Jays have been a consistently productive team on offense. The edge on the mound should be significant for Toronto in this match-up and the Rays will be greatly overvalued after this hot start
James Patrick Sports
Indians vs. A's 4:05
Fausto Carmona will be in our opinion the most improved hurler in the American League this season. The Tribe is (4-1) in Carmona's past (5) starts and the big right-hander has gone at least (6) innings in all (3) starts to date this season. Big Game James Patrick's Major League Baseball selection in Saturday action is Cleveland Indians
Bobby Maxwell
L.A. Lakers (+1') at OKLAHOMA CITY
FREE winner Friday night with the Jazz as they pounded the Nuggets in Game 3 of their series. The win improved my comp play record to 84-63-3. Tonight I have another NBA playoff freebie for you as I go with the Lakers to get the win in Oklahoma City against the Thunder.
When this series was announced, you ask just about any expert out there and they were saying that the Lakers would win this thing in five games. Well, just because the Thunder won Game 3 at home on Thursday, things haven’t changed. The Lakers are still on pace to win it in five games and with a big win here tonight, they are on their way.
Los Angeles got outrebounded and outhustled on Thursday, not completely shocking considering the way the Lakers have been playing lately. Oklahoma City got 29 points from Kevin Durant and 27 points from Russell Westbrook and outrebounded the Lakers 53-39. The Lakers have been getting very little production from either Ron Artest or Derek Fisher and they need another outside shooter to step up and free things up inside for Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum.
Kobe Bryant hasn’t been his usual self in this series yet either. He hasn’t gotten that look in his eye that tells the world that he isn’t going to lose. But you’ll see it tonight. He’s not letting the Lakers go back to Los Angeles tied 2-2.
The Lakers have won 14 of the last 16 meetings with Oklahoma City and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five as a playoff underdog. The Thunder are just 1-4 ATS in their last five after a spread-cover and they were lucky to cover the number in Thursday’s 101-96 win as 3 ½-point favorites.
Remember, the Lakers are the defending champs and what you’ll see tonight from them is a lockdown defensive effort as they try to manhandle the younger Thunder. Play Los Angeles tonight as the Lakers go up 3-1.
3? L.A. LAKERS
Chuck O'Brien
Atlanta at N.Y. METS (+125)
Saturday’s complimentary selection comes from baseball, and I’ll take the surging Mets as a home underdog against Atlanta.
The Mets lost 13 of their last 16 meetings with the Braves last year – including the final eight in a row – but they ended that skid last night with a 5-2 victory. New York has now won four of its last six games and six of its last nine, and the key in all six wins has been pitching (a total of six runs allowed, including last Saturday’s 20-inning, 2-1 win at St. Louis). This afternoon, the Mets send young lefty Jonathon Niese back to the bump, and so far in two home games this year Niese has posted a 2.31 ERA with 10 strikeouts against five walks in 11 2/3 innings.
New York’s offense is starting to come around, too, scoring 23 runs in the last five games. Today, that offense goes up against Jair Jurrjens, and while the Atlanta right-hander dominated the Mets last year (4-0, 1.60 ERA in five starts), he also got destroyed in his first road start this season, yielding eight runs in 3 1/3 innings against the light-hitting Padres (Atlanta lost that one 17-2).
Atlanta is just 3-8 in Jurrjens’ last 11 starts as a road favorite of up to minus-150, and with last night’s loss, the Braves have now dropped nine of 10 games to N.L. East rivals going back to last season.
2? N.Y. METS
Karl Garrett
NY Yankees at LA ANGELS
Friday night winner on the Celtics, as I am now 15-8 the last 23 days with my comp plays.
Here comes a good-old-fashioned pitchers duel at the Big "A" on Saturday.
It will be Andy Pettitte against Joel Pineiro, and it will be plenty of goose eggs on the scoreboard.
Pettitte has been stingy to say the least on the rubber this year, going 2-0 in his 3 starts with an ERA of 1.35. Included for Pettitte is a 6 inning, 6 strikeout, 5 hit, no run effort against the Angels on April 13th in a win.
Pineiro is not far behind at 2-1 with an ERA of 1.77. Included for Pineiro is a 7 inning, 7 strikeout, 1 run win over the Yankees the next day - April 14th.
I know it is a quick turnaround for these pitchers facing familiar bats, but both teams have been plaing them under the total of late - both under the total in 6 of their last 10 - and with this being an afternoon start, I see the pitchers doing more damage once again.
G-Man on the under baby.
Derek Mancini
Florida at COLORADO (-110) 1st Game
Four consecutive Bonus Play winners with the Thunder Tuesday, Dodgers on Wednesday, Thunder again Thursday, and Spurs last night! My original play
on the Rockies Friday got rained out, but we're still on them (and Greg Smith) in Game 1 of today's doubleheader!
Home sweet home. The Rockies had a tough road trip, sprinkled with some impressive effort from ace Jimenez. Returning to Coors couldn't have come at a better time, for both the team, and especially Greg Smith (1-1, 4.67 ERA).
Smith has shown improvement from start to start, albeit his tendency to issue free passes is disconcerting. It was an inconsistent effort at Atlanta in his last start, but you've got to be encouraged by his only home start this season. He was superb vs the Mets April 13th, surrendering 2 runs in 7 innings, striking out 8. and issuing 2 walks. Florida is averaging just 2.8 runs/game vs lefties on the road, and a refocused Smith spells trouble tonight.
Seemingly plenty of value by taking Nolasco (1-0, 3.74 ERA) at this price, but don't be fooled. Colorado is hitting righties well at Coors, scoring 4.8 runs per game. And when you look at the price, I can't help but think it's a little fishy (no pun intended). Also, although it's a factor that cannot be measured, I expect the Rockies to be plenty focused after the unexpected passing of president Keli McGregor. It's the Rockies (Smith) over the Marlins (Nolasco) Saturday.
3? COLORADO
Stephen Nover
Minnesota at KANSAS CITY (+115)
I'm not in the habit of getting involved with the Kansas City Royals unless the price is right on Zach Greinke.
But I'll make a small exception in this case and give Luke Hochevar a shot. I like the way the 26-year-old righty is pitching so far this season. He's 2-0 with a 2.89 ERA.
Hochevar beat the Twins last Sunday at Target Field despite not having his best stuff, giving up two earned runs on six hits in six innings. I see Hochevar pitching better at home against Minnesota.
Hochevar shut out Detroit in his lone home start this season, giving up five hits in 7 2/3 innings.
Twins pitcher Nick Blackburn, on the other hand, has been shaky during his last two starts. The Royals got to Blackburn in his last start this past Saturday for five earned runs on seven hits in five innings.
Blackburn has been surrendering the long ball, allowing six homers in less than 20 innings this year. One reason for his ineffectiveness is elbow soreness
Even when Blackburn was 100 percent, the Twins rarely won on the road with him on the mound losing in 19 of his past 26 away starts. This includes a 2-7 road mark versus teams with a losing record.
1? ROYALS
Jeff Benton
Back on track Friday as the Angels scored late to take down the Yankees. I'm now on runs of 63-33-2, 50-26-2 and 24-11 with plays that I’m giving away! For Saturday, let’s shift gears back to the NBA playoffs and take the Lakers in Game 3 of their series at Oklahoma City.
Why would I turn my back on the Thunder now after they made me a fortune in Games 2 and 3 of this series? Several reasons, and the first is Oklahoma City had to expend a ton of energy in mounting that furious comeback in Game 3, and they could be running on fumes tonight. Secondly, I’m man enough to admit we were pretty damn lucky to get that win and over Thursday night, as the Lakers got lackadaisical after halftime and allowed Kevin Durant and the Thunder crowd to get going. You won’t see L.A. make that mistake again – because Kobe Bryant won’t let it happen.
Speaking of Kobe, you won’t see him get exactly ZERO free-throw attempts again, either. That’s right: The second best player in the league didn’t get to the line once in Game 3. In fact, L.A. shot just 12 free throws in all, while Oklahoma City shot 34! The point differential from the charity stripe: 27-10 in favor of the Thunder (and yet OKC still only won by five points).
I’ll bet my life that free-throw gap gets narrowed, and narrowed significantly tonight. I’ll also bet my life that a pissed-off Bryant takes over this game in a big way. Remember, last year on the way to the championship, L.A. didn’t once suffer back-to-back losses. In fact, their average margin of victory after a defeat was 15 ppg.
7? L.A. LAKERS