Saturday 4/2/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA Odds: Saturday, April 2 2016 Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews

Probably the stupidest firing of any head coach the past two seasons was the Bulls dumping Tom Thibodeau last offseason, but I touched on that earlier this week. No. 2 in my opinion was Sacramento firing Mike Malone in mid-December 2014. The Kings had started that season 5-1 and were still 11-13 despite losing star DeMarcus Cousins for several games due to an illness when Malone was fired. Malone had the Kings on the right track and he had connected with Cousins like no other coach had. Now the Kings are a total mess -- Cousins often acting like a spoiled brat -- and no doubt will have a third head coach this offseason since dumping Malone. And Malone I'm sure will take some major satisfaction if his new team, the Nuggets, beats his old one for the first time in 2015-16 on Saturday as they play for the final time. It's an unusually light schedule for a Saturday, no doubt because of the Final Four. There are no NBA games Monday opposite the NCAA final.

Pacers at 76ers (-12, 205)

Indiana lost a second straight home game Thursday, 114-94 to Orlando. Can't lose those types of games and hang onto a playoff spot. The Pacers hadn't lost at home in the series in four years. Coach Frank Vogel hinted he might change his lineup now. Paul George finished with 27 points and eight rebounds. He needs two more 3-pointers to become the second Pacers player (Reggie Miller) to make 200 in a season. Philadelphia was in Charlotte on Friday no doubt losing its 11th straight game. Indiana has routed Philly twice this season, holding the Sixers to a combined 160 points. The Pacers have won four in a row in the series overall and two straight in Philly.

Key trends: The Pacers are 4-0 against the spread in the past four meetings. The "over/under" has gone under in seven of Indiana's past eight against the East.

Early lean: Pacers and under.

Pistons at Bulls (TBA)

Your lone national TV game on NBA TV. Important game with Detroit seventh in the East, two games ahead of No. 9 Chicago entering the Pistons' home game vs. Dallas on Friday. Indiana is in between the Pistons and Bulls in eighth. Chicago got an improbable 103-100 win in Houston on Thursday. Nikola Mirotic continues to shine in road games with 28 points. It's weird how much better he is away from home. But the injury problems persist. Taj Gibson has been diagnosed with a broken rib, so he's out a while. Derrick Rose tried to play through an elbow injury Thursday but only made it 12 minutes. So I'm sure he's out here at least. Detroit won the first two games in overtime this season vs. Chicago -- including a four-OT epic on Dec. 18 in the Windy City -- but lost the most recent 111-101 at home on Jan. 18. This will mark the 250th all-time meeting between the clubs.

Key trends: The Pistons are 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings. The under is 5-0 in Chicago's past five overall.

Early lean: Pistons win if Rose sits.

Raptors at Spurs (TBA)

Potential Finals preview? Both teams are going to finish second in their respective conferences and be second-favorites to win said conferences. Toronto was in Memphis on Friday night. San Antonio beat New Orleans 100-92 on Wednesday to improve to 38-0 at home. That's an NBA record to start a season, although obviously Golden State is also potentially going to get that. Manu Ginobili returned from two games off and had 20 points vs. the Pelicans, and Kawhi Leonard was back after a three-game absence and had 16 points. San Antonio lost 97-94 in Canada on Dec. 9. The Raptors shot 57.8 percent from the field. No team has done better against the Spurs this season. They have won six straight at home in the series, however.

Key trends: The home team is 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings. The over is 4-1 in the previous five.

Early lean: I happen to think Gregg Popovich will play his guys here with San Antonio off until Tuesday. But I'm not sure the Raptors will play their stars. Spurs should thus roll.

Kings at Nuggets (TBA)

Sacramento hosted Miami on Friday without Cousins due to a one-game suspension for too many technical fouls. He says he's not playing here, either, simply for rest. To be fair, the Nuggets were stupid for firing Coach George Karl after the 2013 season. Of course, now he's coaching the Kings, albeit only for a few more weeks. Denver lost 101-95 in New Orleans on Thursday. Darrell Arthur tied a career high with 24 points off the bench for Denver. Will Barton had been red hot but was 0-for-8 from the field. Jusuf Nurkic sat out with an illness. The Kings are 2-0 against the Nuggets this season even though Denver scored exactly 110 points in each.

Key trends: The Kings are 5-2 ATS in the past seven meetings. The over is 6-0 in the past six.

Early lean: Go big on Nuggets if Cousins is indeed out. They want this for their coach.

Heat at Trail Blazers (-5, 209.5)

Miami was in Sacramento on Friday. Portland won a third straight Thursday, all at home, 116-109 over Boston. Al-Farouq Aminu had a career-high 28 points. Damian Lillard was held to 14 points on 3-for-16 shooting. Miami beat visiting Portland 116-109 on Dec. 29 behind 29 points from Chris Bosh and 22 points and 11 rebounds from Hassan Whiteside. Lillard had 32 points. The Heat also are 4-2 in their past six trips to the Moda Center.

Key trends: The home team is 5-2 ATS in the past seven meetings. The over is 10-2 in Portland's past 12 vs. teams with a winning record.

Early lean: Blazers and over.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA

Saturday's hot teams
-- Detroit won six of its last eight games (2-4 last 6A). Chicago won its last three games (3-2 last 5H).
-- Toronto won seven of its last ten games (3-5 last 8AU). Spurs won eight of its last ten games (3-5-1 last 9HF).
-- Miami won five of its last seven games (1-4 last 5A). Portland won five of its last seven games- they won last four at home.

Cold teams
-- Indiana lost five of its last eight games (6-7AF). 76ers lost their last 11 games (3-7 last 10HU).
-- Sacramento lost four of last five road games (1-3-1 last 5AU). Denver lost three of its last four games (5-3 last 8HF).

Series records
-- 76ers lost eight of last nine games with Indiana.
-- Pistons won four of last six games with Chicago.
-- Spurs won eight of last ten games with Toronto.
-- Kings won five of last seven games with Denver.
-- Miami won five of last six games with Portland.

Totals
-- 76ers' last five games stayed under the total.
-- Last five Chicago games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 14-4-1 in last nineteen San Antonio games.
-- Under is 3-1-1 in last five Denver home games.
-- Four of last five Portland home games stayed under total.

Back/backs
-- 76ers are 5-3 vs spread in last eight games if they played night before.
-- Detroit covered seven of last eight games if it played night before.
-- Toronto won last six games (5-1 vs spread) if it played nite before.
-- Kings covered two of last seven games if they played night before.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Wildcats (33-5) at Sooners (29-7)

Date: April 02, 2016 6:09 PM EDT

HOUSTON (AP) Oklahoma is one of the nation's best 3-point shooting teams. Villanova is no slouch, either.

Their numbers don't lie but neither do NRG Stadium's. That's where the Sooners and Wildcats will play their national semifinal game on Saturday and also where a lot of 3-point shots have just not gone in the basket.

There have been six NCAA Tournament games played in the home of the NFL's Houston Texans, but sizable crowds of 70,000-plus have seen misses at unusual rates for big-time college basketball.

In the six games - the 2011 Final Four and the 2015 South Regional - the 12 teams combined to shoot 27.6 percent (59 of 214) from 3-point range. Plenty of teams have bad games, but only three teams in all of college hoops shot 27.6 percent or worse on 3s this season: Robert Morris, Grambling State and Prairie View A&M.

Only one team playing at NRG - Duke last year - shot better than 33 percent, and that was 42.1 percent (8-19).

Oklahoma (29-7) is coming into the Final Four shooting 42.8 percent on 3s - second in the nation - and Villanova (33-5) hits at a 35.4 percent clip.

Both teams had chances to shoot in the stadium on Thursday and Friday and the ballpark's history didn't seem to bother the Sooners.

'It's just 94 feet with two goals,' said Jordan Woodard, who shot 45.9 percent from behind the arc this season. 'Coach, he's going to expect us to make shots no matter where we at. We have to make shots in order to win.'

Buddy Hield, who has earned a lot of hardware this week as a national player of the year, was fourth in the nation at 46.5 percent.

'We've been making shots all week,' he said. 'We shouldn't have the effect of shooting in an arena. I know it's big, but we (are) going to light it up tomorrow for sure.'

Villanova coach Jay Wright had a team in the 2009 Final Four at Detroit's Ford Field and the Wildcats played in the Carrier Dome every year when the Orange were in the Big East.

'I thought yesterday's practice was really vital,' Wright said Friday.

'At the beginning, you could see we were a little off. But by the end of practice, I thought everybody was comfortable,' he said. 'I really think by tomorrow night, everybody's going to be fine, I really do. Once you get in there for a while, it's going to make you comfortable.'

Sooners coach Lon Kruger said things weren't smooth for his team when they started practice.

'We did shoot it well,' he said Friday. 'The first couple (shots) were pretty bad. I was thinking, `Don't let this get in their head.' After that, we shot it pretty normally.'

---

FIRST MEETING

These teams met in Hawaii on Dec. 7 and it was all Sooners. Oklahoma won 78-55 and the Sooners broke the 50 percent barrier from 3-point range (14 for 26) while the Wildcats were an abysmal 4 for 32.

'I think we learned a lot from Oklahoma,' Wright said. 'They were the team we wanted to be. They were connected defensively. They were unselfish offensively. They had intelligent shot selection. It was a great barometer for us all through the season.'

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VETERAN TOUCH

Half the starters in this game will be seniors. Oklahoma has Hield, Isaiah Cousins and Ryan Spangler while Villanova will have Ryan Arcidiacono and Daniel Ochefu.

'The greatest thing about (our) seniors, is they experienced failure as freshmen, then fought through it to finish the year in the NCAA Tournament, then a lot of success after that,' Wright said. 'It's really like having coaches on the floor and coaches in the locker room and coaches back in the dorm. It's really valuable.'

---

LONG WAIT

Kruger last had a team in the Final Four in 1994 with Florida. His 22 years between appearances is second-longest in NCAA history behind DePaul's Ray Meyer who led the Blue Demons to the Final Four in 1943 and again in 1979.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Orange (23-13) at Tar Heels (32-6)

Date: April 02, 2016 8:49 PM EDT

HOUSTON (AP) North Carolina likes to run, and Syracuse prefers to walk.

These two teams that do things very differently are also very familiar with each other, having already played twice this season.

Except this isn't another ACC game. The conference rivals, with their veteran coaches who have both been here multiple times before, are playing each other in the Final Four.

While the stage and the stadium are much bigger, with a spot in the national championship game on the line, don't expect Roy Williams' Tar Heels (32-6) or Jim Boeheim's Orange (23-13) to start altering what they do in the national semifinal game Saturday night.

'We just try to do what we do better. That's all,' said Boeheim, whose team and its 2-3 zone made it to Houston as a No. 10 seed. 'It's a little too late in the year to be experimenting.'

North Carolina, the only No. 1 seed in this Final Four and the ACC's highest-scoring team at 83 points a game, won both earlier matchups against the Orange this season.

Williams isn't sure he agrees with the old premise brought up constantly this week about the challenge of beating the same team three times in the same season.

'If you're better than me, you can probably beat me 20 times,' Williams said, before adding a caveat about playing the Orange again. 'The Syracuse games, the games went right down to the wire.'

Then Williams reminded everyone of 1985 when Villanova, a No. 8 seed, beat defending national champion Georgetown in the title game after the Wildcats lost twice against their Big East rivals in the regular season - 57-50 and 52-50.

In the Jan. 9 game under Syracuse's dome, the Orange were tied at halftime and led by as many as six points after that. But Isaiah Hicks scored 19 of his 21 points after the break, and the Tar Heels hit 12 of 13 from the field in the closing minutes for an 84-73 victory.

In the Feb. 29 rematch at Chapel Hill, the Orange had cut a second-half deficit of 15 points to one with 2:23 left but never went back ahead in a 75-70 loss.

'I think it gives you some confidence going into this game' said Orange guard Trevor Cooney, who had a season-high 27 points in the first game against Carolina. 'I mean, we can play with these guys. ... If we play the way we've been playing defensively, I think we'll be fine.'

A few other things when North Carolina and Syracuse play for the fourth time in the NCAA Tournament, first since 1987:

---

3s TIMES 2

Senior guard Marcus Paige has made at least two 3s in all 11 NCAA Tournament games he has played in for North Carolina, and his 32 overall are second-most school history behind only 1993 Final Four MVP Donald Williams' 38. In six NCAA games played in NRG Stadium, the 12 teams have combined to shoot 27.6 percent from long range. But that doesn't seem to faze Paige. 'It is still a rim out there 10 feet up,' he said. 'After a couple minutes of shooting, it is no different than any other rim.'

---

FINAL FOUR EXPERIENCE

This is Williams' fourth Final Four appearance with North Carolina, after four with Kansas. His two national titles are with the Tar Heels, including their last Final Four appearance in 2009. Boeheim is in his fifth Final Four, and his only title came in 2003 when the Orange beat Kansas - in what was Williams' last game with the Jayhawks before going back to Carolina.

---

DOUBLE-DIGITS IN FINAL FOUR

Syracuse is the fourth double-digit seed to reach the Final Four. The Orange will try to become the first to make it to the championship game.

---

ACC vs. ACC

This is the sixth time two ACC teams have reached the Final Four, and the third time for the conference to have a national semifinal matchup. North Carolina beat Virginia in 1981 before losing to Indiana in the national title game. Twenty years later, Duke was the national champion after first defeating Maryland in the semifinal game.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Villanova vs. Oklahoma: Final Four betting preview

No. 2 Villanova Wildcats vs. No. 2 Oklahoma Sooners (+2, 144.5)

Game to be played at NRG Stadium, Houston, TX


Buddy Hield has turned the NCAA Tournament into a personal highlight reel and the stage gets bigger Saturday when he leads Oklahoma into their first Final Four game in 14 years against Villanova in Houston. The Sooners' senior scored 37 points in the Elite Eight victory over Oregon last weekend, is averaging 29.3 on 56.7 percent shooting in the tournament and presents a skill set that will dominate the Wildcats' pregame preparations.

"The way people are guarding Buddy and getting into him, it impacts everything," Oklahoma coach Lon Kruger told the media. "It helps create opportunities going at the goal and maybe when two guys are on him one guy might roll and we can get a lob. ... So how defenses cover Buddy effects everyone." While Hield is the unquestioned star of the Final Four, Villanova can come at you in waves with four players averaging double figures in the tournament. Three of them - Ryan Arcidiacono, Josh Hart and Kris Jenkins - scored 13 points apiece in the 64-59 victory over Kansas in the South Region final last Saturday which pushed the Wildcats into the Final Four for the fifth time in school history and the second time under coach Jay Wright, who also led his 2009 team to the national semifinals. These teams met Dec. 7 in Hawaii and the Sooners rolled 78-55 behind 19 points from Isaiah Cousins and 18 from Hield.

TV: 6:09 p.m. ET, TBS

ODDS TO WIN NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP:

Villanova - Open 20/1, Current 5/2
Oklahoma - Open 30/1, Current 7/2

LINE HISTORY: Oklahoma opened as 1-point pups versus Villanova and the line quickly moved in the direction Wildcats. Villanova move to -1.5, then to -2, before peaking at -2.5. Since then some action has come back on the Sooners moving the line to the current number of Villanova -2. Meanwhile, the total has plummeted down since opening at 150, coming all the down to 144.5. Check out the complete line history here.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "It will be interesting to see how playing in a big football arena will affect the three-point shooting of both teams, especially since both squads rely heavily on the outside shot and will now be dealing with unusual sight lines. Both teams average 24 three-point attempts per game which equates to 42 percent of Villanova's total field goal attempts and 40 percent of Oklahoma's total shot attempts per game. Extreme variance in three-point shooting accounted for Oklahoma's easy 23-point win on December 7th as a 5-point underdog when they faced Villanova in Hawaii. The Sooners shot 14-for-26 (54%) from beyond the arc, while the Wildcats were just 4-for-32 (13%). Villanova actually held a 52 percent to 41 percent shooting edge from two-point range in that game." - Steve Merril.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We haven’t had to move off our number of Villanova -2 as we are seeing great two way action on both sides of the line with just over 50 percent on Villanova to cover the 2-point spread against Oklahoma. The 145.5 point total has just over 60 percent of the action on the Over." - Michael Stewart.

ABOUT VILLANOVA (33-5, 19-17-1 ATS, 19-17-1 O/U): Coach Jay Wright knows his team was already manhandled by the Sooners and is well aware of the fact that Houston is not too far from the Oklahoma campus, but he saw his team knock off the favored Jayhawks last week and said he feels he has another positive development on his side. "When we played Oklahoma earlier this season, Jalen (Brunson) was starting for the first time, Kris and Josh were starting for the first time," Wright told reporters earlier this week. "We were an inexperienced team and it really showed, so I think we are a much more experienced team now." That trio combined to go 1-of-16 from 3-point range against Oklahoma, but have posted a collective 42.6 percent mark from beyond the arc in the tournament.

ABOUT OKLAHOMA (29-7, 14-20 ATS, 15-19 O/U): Guard Jordan Woodard has been the best of the supporting cast for Hield by averaging 16.8 points, while Cousins has struggled of late with a total of 13 points on 5-of-21 shooting over the last two games. Hield hit 8-of-13 3-pointers versus Oregon and has taken at least 10 triples in eight of his last 14 contests. The Wildcats will need to be on their game early as the Sooners have outscored their four tournament opponents by an average of 14.3 points in the first half.

TRENDS:

* Villanova is 4-0 ATS in its last four neutral site games.
* Oklahoma is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 NCAA Tournament games.
* Under is 8-1 in Villanova's last nine games versus Big 12 opponents.
* Under is 12-2 in Oklahoma's last 14 games overall.

CONSENSUS: Bettors are giving the slight edge to Villanova in this mathchup of No. 2 seeds, with 52 percent of wagers on the Wildcats. As for the total, 68 percent of wagers are on the over.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Syracuse vs. North Carolina: Final Four betting preview

No. 10 Syracuse Orange vs. No. 1 North Carolina Tar Heels (-9, 144.5)

Game to be played at NRG Stadium, Houston, TX


North Carolina makes its record 19th trip to the Final Four and must beat ACC rival Syracuse for the third time this season Saturday in Houston to reach its 10th title game. The Tar Heels are the only top seed remaining in the NCAA Tournament field and upstart Syracuse navigated its way to a sixth Final Four from the 10th seed.

Seniors Brice Johnson and Marcus Paige lead a North Carolina team that is averaging 89.3 points while winning by an average of 16 in the Big Dance, and has won nine in a row. Paige told reporters: “I think we always thought we were going to be the favorite because in our minds when we’re playing our best basketball, we feel we can’t be beat. So, that’s the mentality I’m sure all four teams have going in.” The Orange had lost five of six games coming into the NCAA Tournament, but have played their best basketball at the right time to move within a victory of meeting Oklahoma or Villanova in the final. “I think we learned lot about each other throughout the whole entire year, and all those things are paying off now,” Syracuse senior guard Trevor Cooney told reporters. “We’re sticking together, believing in each other, and good things happen when you do that.”

TV: 8:49 p.m. ET, TBS

NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS:

Syracuse - Open 100-1, Current 10/1
North Carolina - Open 8-1, Current 10/11

LINE HISTORY: North Carolina opened as nine-point faves for their Final Four showdown with Syracuse and have remained at that number. However, the Tar Heels have creeped up to -9.5 at some books. The total opened at 147 and has seen mostly under money since then, moving down to as low as 144.5. It has come back up to 145, where it currently sits. Check out the complete line history here.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "The current betting odds give North Carolina an 83 percent chance of winning this game straight-up. The bigger question for most bettors is if Syracuse can stay within the large pointspread. The key will be if the Orangemen can slow down the pace of play and force UNC into a half-court game. Syracuse was unable to do this in the first regular season meeting on January 9th, losing by 11 points at home with the game going Over the total (157 points), however the Orangemen played better in the rematch on February 29th at Chapel Hill, losing by only 5 points with the game landing right near on the total (145 points)." - Steve Merril.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We have seen good two way action on our -9.5 point spread on North Carolina with with just over 55 percent of the action on the Tar Heels to cover. The 145 point total is also seeing solid two action with over 55 percent of the action on the Under." - Michael Stewart.

ABOUT SYRACUSE (23-13, 20-15 ATS, 18-17 O/U): The Orange won their lone NCAA title in 2003 and boast a mix of veteran leadership with talented young players to go along with a Hall of Fame coach in Jim Boeheim. Senior Michael Gbinije tops the team in scoring (17.6) and boasts 91 3-pointers while recording double figures in points 37 straight contests and at least 20 in four of the past six games. Freshman Malachi Richardson raised his level of play in the NCAAs, including a season high-matching 23 points in the 68-62 Elite Eight victory over Virginia, and fellow freshman Tyler Lydon (10.2 points overall) is also a threat.

ABOUT NORTH CAROLINA (32-6, 19-18-1 ATS, 20-18 O/U): Hall of Fame coach Roy Williams’ Tar Heels began their winning streak with a 75-70 triumph against Syracuse on Feb. 29 and Johnson (17.1 points, 10.5 rebounds overall) has been a consistent force. The 6-10 All-American forward is averaging 21 points, 9.8 boards and shooting 63 percent from the field in the first four rounds while Paige drained 13-of-27 from 3-point range in the same span. Guard Joel Berry II has committed only four turnovers in the last six games while swingman Justin Jackson, a Texas native, is 6-for-13 from behind the arc in the NCAAs.

TRENDS:

* Syracuse is 6-0 ATS in its last six games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600.
* North Carolina is 5-0 ATS in its last five games versus Atlantic Coast conference opponents.
* Under is 4-1 in Syracuse's last five NCAA Tournament games.
* Over is 5-1 in North Carolina's last six NCAA Tournament games.

CONSENSUS: Bettors are giving the slight edge to Syracuse in this Final Four showdown, with 53 percent of wagers backing the Orange. As for the total, 59 percent of wagers are on the over.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Oklahoma vs. Villanova
By Brian Edwards

For the first time since 2009, Villanova (33-5 straight up, 19-17 against the spread) advanced past the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament two weeks ago. With that monkey off its back, Jay Wright’s squad proceeded to beat Miami and Kansas to land in Houston for the 2016 Final Four.

Oklahoma, another No. 2 seed like ‘Nova, came out of the West Region by beating top-seeded Oregon this past Saturday at Honda Center in Anaheim. In doing so, Lon Kruger is back in the national semifinals for the first time since taking Florida to the 1994 Final Four in Charlotte.

The Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas opened Villanova as a two-point favorite with a total of 149 points. By Sunday afternoon, the tally had been adjusted all the way down to 146.5. The number for the side hasn’t budged whatsoever, but the ‘under’ was down to 145 by Wednesday.

Villanova is -135 on the money line, leaving the Sooners as +115 underdogs. For first-half wagers, the Wildcats were one-point ‘chalk’ as of Thursday afternoon.

Wright’s team has won four in a row both SU and ATS, including a 64-59 win over Kansas as a two-point underdog in last Saturday’s Elite Eight showdown. The 123 combined points provided an easy winner for ‘under’ supporters as it never threatened the 145-point number.

Ryan Arcidiacono, Kris Jenkins and Josh Hart scored 13 points apiece for the winners, while Daniel Ochefu produced 10 points, eight rebounds, one steal, one blocked shot and two assists without a turnover.

Villanova was nearly perfect at the free-throw line, making 18-of-19 attempts (94.7%). Jenkins converted all six of his shots from the stripe, while Arcidiacono made 6-of-7 at the line.

Villanova forced KU into 16 turnovers to overcome a poor shooting day when it made only 21-of-52 (40.4%) from the field. Mikal Bridges, a freshman forward, came up with five steals and also had six points and three boards.

In the South Region semifinals at KFC Yum! Center in Louisville, Villanova destroyed Miami by a 92-69 count as a four-point favorite. The 161 combined points sailed ‘over’ the 140-point tally.

Jenkins and Arcidiacono were sensational against the Hurricanes with 21 points apiece. Jenkins made 8-of-10 shots from the field, including 5-of-6 from 3-point range, and finished with nine rebounds, four assists, one steal and one blocked shot.

Arcidiacono, the senior point guard, drained 4-of-7 from downtown and handed out four assists compared to one turnover. In fact, Arcidiacono has committed only two turnovers in his last 97 minutes of playing time.

Ochefu and Hart added 17 and 14 points, respectively, against UM. The Wildcats finished the night shooting 62.7 percent from the field, 66.7 percent from behind the 3-point line (10-of-15) and 94.7 percent from the free-throw line (18-of-19). They also beat the ‘Canes on the boards by a 26-16 margin.

Villanova owns a 7-6 spread record in 13 games as a single-digit favorite.

Oklahoma (29-7 SU, 14-20 ATS) advanced to its fifth Final Four in program history and its first since 2002 by downing Oregon 80-68 as a one-point underdog. The 148 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 153-point total.

Buddy Hield erupted for 37 points on 8-of-13 shooting from behind the arc. Jordan Woodard added 13 points, while Isaiah Cousins produced 11 points, seven assists, five rebounds and one steal.

OU did an outstanding job of defending the 3-point line, forcing the Ducks to make only 4-of-21 launches form downtown. The Sooners won the rebounding battle by a 33-29 margin.

Oklahoma had failed to cover the spread in seven straight games until facing Texas A&M in the West Region semifinals. After the Aggies raced out to an early six-point lead, Kruger’s bunch responded with a 34-9 run to take a 19-point lead into halftime.

OU would finish the job in the second half, capturing a 77-63 victory as a 2.5-point ‘chalk.’ Woodard buried 5-of-6 treys in a game-high 22-point effort. He also dished out five assists, grabbed three rebounds and had two steals.

Hield produced 17 points, 10 rebounds and three assists, while Ryan Spangler had 10 points and eight boards.

Hield, the two-time Big 12 Player of the Year, is averaging 25.4 points, 5.7 rebounds and 2.0 assists per game. The Bahamian product is shooting at career-high clips from the field (50.4%), 3-point land (46.5%) and the free-throw line (88.0%).

When these schools met in Honolulu on Dec. 7, Oklahoma coasted to a 78-55 win as a five-point underdog. Cousins was the catalyst for the Sooners, producing 19 points, 10 assists, six rebounds and one steal while committing just a pair of turnovers. Hield hit 4-of-9 from 3-point range in an 18-point effort.

Villanova couldn’t buy a bucket from downtown against the Sooners, shooting an abysmal 4-of-32 (12.5%) from long distance. Arcidiacono, Hart and Phil Booth scored 10 points apiece in the losing effort.

There will plenty of talk about depth perception at this event that’ll be played in the Texans’ football stadium. At this same venue for three games of the South Region semifinals and finals last year, the four teams combined to make only 26.7 percent of 3-point attempts

This could prove problematic for the Sooners, who rank second in the nation in 3-point shooting percentage (42.8%).

Unlike Oklahoma, Villanova doesn’t lean too much on 3-point shooting, ranking No. 139 in the country with a 35.4 percentage. The Wildcats have been great at the line throughout the Tournament as noted above. They rank second in the nation in FT percentage (78.4%). Also, ‘Nova ranks 15th in the country in scoring defense, limiting foes to a 63.6 PPG average.

OU has been an underdog seven times this year, posting a 5-2 spread record with four outright wins.

The ‘over’ has hit at a 10-3 clip for the Wildcats in their last 13 games to improve to 19-17-1 overall.

The ‘under’ is on a lucrative 12-2 roll in OU’s last 14 games. The Sooners have seen the ‘under’ go 19-15 overall.

Tip-off is scheduled for 6:05 p.m. Eastern on TBS.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- The updated futures at Sportsbook.ag look like this: North Carolina -110, Villanova +260, Oklahoma +350 and Syracuse 10/1.

-- Hield’s odds to win Most Outstanding Player of the Final Four are +350 (risk $100 to win $350). Hart and Arcidiacono have 5/1 and 8/1 odds, respectively.

-- Oklahoma is seeking its first national title in men’s basketball. The Sooners made it to the finals in 1947 and 1988, only to come up short. Billy Tubbs’s ’88 squad featured Mookie Blaylock and Stacey King but went down against a Kansas team coached by Larry Brown. This KU squad was dubbed “Danny [Manning] and the Miracles.”

-- Villanova is looking for its first national title since 1985 when it shocked the world by knocking off Georgetown in the finals at Rupp Arena in Lexington.

-- Chris Beard is the new head coach at UNLV after leading Arkansas Little Rock to a 30-5 record and a Round of 64 win over Purdue in his lone season as a Division-I coach. Beard served on Bobby Knight’s staff at Texas Tech. Knight, who isn’t doing interviews these days, agreed to chat with Matt Youmans of the Las Vegas *************** about Beard earlier this week. The former Indiana coach who won three national titles for Hoosiers ripped off this gem to Youmans, “You have a lot of experts in Las Vegas and they would probably have some hesitation if you hired Jesus Christ or Red Auerbach at the same time.” Knight remains in my Top Five of dudes I’d like to drink 10-15 Budweisers with, including Charles Barkley, Bill Raftery, Larry Bird either of the Van Gundy Brothers. (Steve Spurrier doesn’t make the cut because he can’t improve his stock in my eyes; he can only hurt it and I don’t ever want that to happen.)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Syracuse vs. North Carolina
By Brian Edwards

North Carolina is the last No. 1 seed left standing in the 2016 NCAA Tournament. Syracuse in the first No. 10 seed to ever advance to the Final Four, getting to Houston after losing five of its last six games that had it extremely anxious on Selection Sunday.

When the ‘Cuse’s name appeared on the board, CBS Sports’s Doug Gottlieb immediately exclaimed, “What?!”

Nevertheless, Jim Boeheim has his program in its fifth Final Four of his 40-year tenure, seeking a second national title. The Orange beat Roy Williams’s Kansas team to cut down the nets in the 2003 NCAA Finals.

Williams is in his eighth Final Four and is hoping to bag a third national title, which would elevate him into elite company. The only coaches with three or more national titles are John Wooden, Adolph Rupp, Mike Krzyzewski, Bobby Knight and Jim Calhoun.

The Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas opened North Carolina (32-6 straight up, 19-18 against the spread) as a 9.5-point favorite with a total of 146.5 points. The number for the side briefly went down to nine but was back to 9.5 as of early Friday night. The total has been reduced to 145.

Gamblers can take the Orange to win outright for a monster +425 payout (risk $100 to win $425). For first-half wagers, UNC is a 5.5-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 67.

Most betting shops have a slew of proposition bets available. For instance, Sportsbook.ag has adjusted lines that offer great value for those that are extremely bullish on a certain side or total.

For instance, if you think UNC is going to win in blowout fashion, you can back the Tar Heels laying 14.5 points for a +200 return (risk $100 to win $200). On the flips side, for bettors liking the ‘Cuse, it can be had at +4.5 for a +215 payout (risk $100 to win $215).

North Carolina advanced to the national semifinals with victories over Florida Gulf Coast (83-67), Providence (85-66), Indiana (101-86) and Notre Dame (88-74). The Tar Heels have won nine consecutive games, going 7-2 ATS, and haven’t tasted defeat since a 79-74 loss at Virginia on Feb. 27.

UNC has covered the number in three straight, including the win over the Fighting Irish as a 9.5-point favorite in the East Region finals at Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia this past Sunday. The 162 combined points jumped ‘over’ the 153.5-point total.

Brice Johnson was the catalyst, scoring 25 points and pulling down 12 rebounds. All five UNC starters were in double figures, including Joel Berry II, who had 11 points and eight assists without committing a turnover.

Kennedy Meeks scored eight straight points early in the second half to stretch UNC’s five-point halftime lead to an 11-point cushion. However. Notre Dame responded with a 12-0 run to roar back into the lead.

It wouldn’t last, though, as UNC went on a 12-0 run of its own and was back ahead by double digits at the 9:19 mark. The Irish would get no closer than eight the rest of the way.

Johnson has been a monster in the Tournament, posting three straight double-doubles. He’s averaging 22.0 points, 9.8 rebounds and 3.5 blocked shots in the last four games.

Marcus Paige, UNC’s senior point guard who had an inconsistent campaign, has played solid in recent weeks. Paige has scored in double figures in six straight games. He is averaging 14.0 points per game in the Tournament with a 14/4 assists-to-turnovers ratio.

UNC ranks 10th in the nation in scoring (83.0 PPG) and 16th in field-goal percentage (48.2%). However, the Tar Heels are horrible from 3-point land, shooting at just a 32.1 percent clip that ranks them No. 289 in America.

The lack of dependency on 3-pointers is probably a plus, however, especially at this venue where the Texans play football. Depth perception can be an issue is such a huge arena, evidenced by 26.7 percent shooting from downtown in last year’s South Region semifinals and finals.

Syracuse (23-13 SU, 20-15 ATS) had to overcome a 16-point second-half deficit to oust top-seeded Virginia by a 68-62 count as an eight-point underdog in last Sunday’s Midwest Region finals.

Malachi Richardson, a freshman wing, sparked the rally with 23 points, seven rebounds and two steals. Senior forward Michael Gbinije finished with 11 points, six assists, four rebounds and a pair of steals. Tyler Roberson had 10 points and eight rebounds before fouling out, while Trevor Cooney tallied eight points, four steals and three assists without a turnover. Freshman forward Tyler Lydon produced 11 points, six rebounds and five blocked shots.

The Orange had more steals (11) than turnovers (seven), while UVA committed 13 turnovers and had only three steals.

Syracuse has covered the spread in five consecutive games and seven of its last eight. The Orange has been an underdog 15 times this year, compiling a 9-6 spread record with six outright wins.

The ‘Cuse had to rally in its Sweet 16 showdown against Gonzaga as well. The Bulldogs led most of the way, but the Orange captured a 63-60 win as a four-point underdog. They hooked up money-line backers with a +150 payout.

Leading by one in the final seconds, Lydon blocked a Gonzaga shot in the lane. I thought it was a clear foul, but there was no whistle.

Gbinije scored a team-high 20 points for the winners. Cooney scored 15 points and Lydon had six rejections.

Syracuse got through the first weekend with wins over Middle Tennessee (75-50) and Dayton (70-51). The Blue Raiders stunned second-seeded Michigan State in the opening round to bolster the Orange’s path to Chicago and the Sweet 16.

Boeheim’s bunch is 25th in the country in scoring defense (64.6 PPG). They play a vaunted 2-3 zone that usually gives opponents fits.

These schools met twice during the regular season. In the first encounter at the Carrier Dome on Jan. 9, UNC collected an 84-73 win as a 7.5-point road ‘chalk.’ The 157 combined points went ‘over’ the 152.5-point total.

Despite making only 3-of-16 attempts from 3-point range (18.8%) for the game, UNC pulled away in the second half after being tied at intermission. Isaiah Hicks led the way with 21 points and eight rebounds in just 22 minutes of playing time from off the bench. Justin Jackson added 16 points on 8-of-11 shooting from the field, while Johnson finished with 16 points, eight assists, four rebounds and two steals.

Cooney scored a game-high 27 points in the losing effort, while Richardson contributed 16 points, five assists and four boards.

In the rematch at the Dean Dome in Chapel Hill, UNC won a 75-70 decision but the ‘Cuse easily took the money as a 13-point road underdog. The 145 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 146.5-point total.

Johnson led five double-figure scorers with 14 points and 10 rebounds. Gbinije had 17 points and seven assists in defeat.

The ‘over’ is 18-17 overall for the Orange, but the ‘under’ has cashed in three of its last four games. The combined scores in Syracuse’s four NCAA Tournament games have been 121, 125, 123 and 130. The ‘under’ is 7-1 in Syracuse’s eight games that have had totals in the 140s.

The ‘over’ is 20-18 overall for UNC. The ‘over’ is 8-4 in the Tar Heels’ 12 games that had totals in the 140s. The combined scores in UNC’s four NCAA games have been 162, 187, 151 and 150.

This second semifinal game will tip 30 minutes after the conclusion of Oklahoma-Villanova on TBS.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- Back in January, Syracuse’s odds to win the national title were 1,000/1 at the Westgate. As recently as two weeks ago, William Hill had the Orange listed with 400/1 future odds (hat tip to Matt Youmans of the Las Vegas ***************).

-- Jay Kornegay, the Westgate’s sports book director, told Youmans that they took four wagers on the ‘Cuse at 1,000/1, including a bet for $100.

-- I like the prop for Marcus Paige’s points to go ‘over’ 12.5 (Westgate).

-- This is UNC’s first Final Four appearance since 2009 and its 19th in school history.

-- Here are the odds to win Most Outstanding Player at Sportsbook.ag: Brice Johnson +200, Buddy Hield +300, Josh Hart +500, Joel Berry II +600, Marcus Paige +700, Ryan Arcidiacono +800, Kris Jenkins 15/1, Michael Gbinije 22/1 and Malachi Richardson 25/1.

-- South Carolina announced a four-year contract extension for Frank Martin on Friday.

-- According to a report from CBS Sports’s Gary Parrish, Vanderbilt and Georgia Tech have both contacted Valpo’s Bryce Drew about their vacant head-coaching positions. As I noted on my blog page earlier this week, Duke assistant Jeff Capel is also in the mix for both jobs. There have also been indications that Monmouth’s King Rice could be in play for the Commodores. Rice played at UNC for Dean Smith. Eddie Fogler, the former Vandy coach, is running this coaching search. He was a long-time UNC assistant under Smith.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAA Tournament

Final Four, Houston

Since 1987, #8 or lower seeds are 1-3-1 vs spread in national semis when not facing each other. North Carolina swept Syracuse this season, 84-73 in Carrier Dome Jan 9 (trailed by 6 with 8:28 left, UNC made 64.4% of 2-pointers, 3-16 on arc), 75-70 at home Feb 29 (UNC was up 4 at half, made 6 of 25 on arc). Tar Heels made 11-20 on arc vs Indiana, but in last four games other than that one, were at 33.3% or less. Syracuse allowed 55.8 ppg in four tourney wins; their last three losses were by 5 or less points. Carolina won its last nine games overall. Since '87, when teams from same conference play in national semis, the favorite is 3-1

Last five years, underdogs are 6-4 vs spread in national semifinal games. Villanova's worst game of year was 78-55 loss to Oklahoma Dec 7th on Pearl Harbor- game was 32-26 at half. Sooners made 14-26 on arc while Wildcats were 4-32 in game they never led. Villanova won nine of its last ten games, losing by hoop to Seton Hall in Big East final- they've got the #13 eFG% in country. Oklahoma has four kids who've started together for 100+ games; Sooners won seven of last eight games, losing by hoop to West Virginia in Big X semis. Big East teams are 2-2 vs Big X teams this season- Oklahoma had both Big X wins, also beating Creighton.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Final Four

The 2016 NCAA College Basketball 'Big Dance' is down to the 'Final Four' with #2 seed Villanova Wildcats, #2 Oklahoma Sooners, #1 North Carolina Tar Heels and #10 Syracuse Orange still standing.

Contrasting styles are the order of the day for this years 'Final Four'. In the first matchup it's Oklahoma no slouches on offense lead by Buddy Hield (25.4) and three others in double digits netting 80.5 points/game taking on Villanova great at protecting their own basket allowing a stingy 63.6 points/game. Sooners took care of Wildcats 78-55 as 5 point underdogs in this years Pearl Harbor Invitational but have opened 2.0 point underdogs. Last eight underdogs of 3.5 or less in this round have been poor bets going 2-6 against the betting line.

In the Saturday night finale it's much the same as North Carolina one of nation's top offenses dropping 84.9 points/game get a shot at solving Syracuse's famed 2-3 zone defence allowing 64.6 per/contest. UNC won both meetings this season cashing as 7.5 point faves in the first encounter but dropped the loot as 12.5 point home chalk in the second meeting. UNC given the nod opened 9.0 point favorites. Last four teams laying 7.0 or more points in a 'Final Four' game are a money-burning 1-3 ATS. Well to note, the lone cover came in 2009 when North Carolina defeating Villanova 83-69 as 7 point chalk.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

A11 - Florida Derby
By Anthony Stabile

Anthony's Eleven (4/1/16)

Rank Horse Jockey Trainer Next Race Derby Points

1 Mohaymen Junior Alvarado Kiaran McLaughlin Florida Derby (4/2 at GP) 70 pts
2 Gun Runner Florent Geroux Steve Asmussen Kentucky Derby (5/7 at CD) 151 pts
3 Zulu John Velazquez Todd Pletcher Undecided 20 pts
4 Nyquist Mario Gutierrez Doug O'Neill Florida Derby (4/2 at GP) 30 pts
5 Shagaf Irad Ortiz, Jr. Chad Brown Wood Memorial (4/9 at AQU) 50 pts
6 Whitmore Irad Ortiz, Jr. Ron Moquett Arkansas Derby (4/16 at OP) 24 pts
7 Cupid Martin Garcia Bob Baffert Arkansas Derby (4/16 at OP) 50 pts
8 Mo Tom Corie Lanerie Tom Amoss Kentucky Derby (5/7 at CD) 32 pts
9 Exaggerator Kent Desormeaux Keith Desormeaux Santa Anita Derby (4/9 at SA) 26 pts
10 Outwork John Velazquez Todd Pletcher Undecided 20 pts
11 Danzing Candy Mike Smith Robert Hess Jr Santa Anita Derby (4/9 at SA) 50 pts


All eyes in the racing world will be focused on Gulfstream Park this Saturday as the undefeated, Two-Year-Old Eclipse champ Nyquist ships in from Southern California to take on Mohaymen, a perfect five for five in his own right, to battle over 100 Kentucky Derby points and the winners’ share of $1 million in the G1 Xpressbet.com Florida Derby going 1 1/8 miles.

This could very well be THE most anticipated prep race in the history of Kentucky Derby prep races as horse racing, especially in this new age of Derby preparation where it seems every track has its’ own run-up to the Run for the Roses, rarely gets the two colts that sit atop almost every Derby contenders list in the land.

From the connections that brought you 2012 Derby and Preakness winner I’ll Have Another, Nyquist won five starts as a juvenile, including the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. In a bit of an unconventional move, trainer Doug O’Neill announced his colt would have just two preps before the Derby – the G2 San Vicente at Santa Anita and this race.

I say unconventional because the San Vicente, run at seven furlongs, is a bit of an odd starting point with just two races planned before a run in Louisville. In the San Vicente, regular rider put Nyquist up close early, made the lead going down the backside then slowly pulled away from Exaggerator to win by 1 ½ lengths, stopping the clock in a sharp 1:20 3/5.

The trip to Florida made little sense initially as well but we were soon reminded that Nyquist is eligible to win a $1 million dollar bonus should he take down this race being a Fasig-Tipton Florida sales graduate. When you combine this revelation with the notion of many who feel this guy will have some distance limitations, namely those 10 furlongs at Churchill in about five weeks, some people actually feel that THIS may be being looked at as his Kentucky Derby-like payday. He’ll break from post 4.

Mohaymen, breaking from post 9, will try to defend the turf he’s called home this winter for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin and jockey Junior Alvarado, both of whom are trying to drape themselves in roses for the first time.

After a maiden tally at Belmont, Mohaymen won a pair of G2 races at Aqueduct, the Nashua at a mile and Remsen at this distance, to close out his two-year-old season.

His sophomore year has begun the same way with tallies in the G2 Holy Bull and G2 Xpressbet.com Fountain of Youth, both at Gulfstream. He sat just a couple lengths off the pace and made his run for the lead on the far turn and drew off through the lane in both efforts and should benefit from being drawn outside of Nyquist and most of the rest.

Amazingly, the folks in the Gulfstream Park racing office got eight others to run against these two gorillas and all of them would be viewed as monster up-setters should they take the race down.

Fellowship has finished third to Mohaymen in both starts this year and would appreciate a hot pace to set up his late kick. He’s won two of ten overall, including a Florida bred stakes last season. Jose Lezcano rides for trainer Stanley Gold from post 2.

Takeittotheegde broke his maiden at first asking in a loaded seven furlong special weight contest over the course just three weeks ago under 2015 Eclipse Award winning apprentice, the now journeyman Tyler Gaffalione. His trainer Dale Romans is no stranger to big upsets as his Keen Ice was the only horse to beat Triple Crown winner American Pharoah last year when he ran him down in the Travers. He’ll break from post 7.

Majesto broke his maiden in start five last out, his fourth consecutive around two turns but first with Gulfstream’s leading rider Javier Castellano in the irons. Castellano stays for trainer Gustavo Delgado from post 3.

Isofass breaks from post 10 under Julien Leparoux for trainer Tres Abbott. He’ll be racing on Lasix for the first time after pressing the pace before tiring in an entry level allowance/optional claimer at this trip over the course last out.

Hall of Fame trainer Nick Zito sends out longshot Fashionable Freddy from post 8 with Nik Juarez. One for five in his career, Fashionable Freddy will have to get over the gate trouble he’s encountered in his last two starts should he expect to get a piece in here.

Chovanes broke his maiden when dropping in against claimers for Jorge Navarro, who’s winning at 30% at the current Gulfstream meet. Edgard Zayas rides from post 6. Copingaway ran last Saturday for Jaime Mejia and beat just two in a starter/optional claimer on the turf. Miguel Vasquez rides from post 5. The maiden Sawyers Mickey breaks from the rail with Scott Speith aboard in his first start for trainer Peter Walder off of a third place finish in the John Battaglia Memorial over the synthetic track at Turfway Park.

Speaking of Turfway and the Battaglia, its’ winner, Surgical Strike takes on a field of 12 in the G3 Spiral going nine furlongs. G1 Hopeful winner Ralis, as well as G2 KJC winner Airoforce appear to be his biggest competition for the 50 Derby points to the winner.

Prep Play of the Day

Bet $100 to win on Mohaymen, plain and simple. Good luck!!!!

Bankroll: $124.50

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

At the Gate - Saturday
By Mike Dempsey

We got a good tune up for Florida Derby Day on Friday with six winners on top on the 10-race card, although the results were chalky. The winners paid $4.80, $4.60, $5.50, $2.80, $8.00 and $2.20.

On Saturday we have a 14-race card and while there are a few solid favorites, we should see some prices as we have some wide open races.

The $1 million Florida Derby (G1) is not one of them, as it truly appears to come down to the two chalks Mohaymen and Nyquist. The much anticipated showdown is the highlight of the day, but it is not much of a betting race.

Mohaymen is the even money favorite and I have a hunch he goes off closer to 3-5. Nyquist, who ships in from Southern California looking for a $1 million bonus as a sales grad of Fasig Tipton is the 6-5 second choice and I am guessing he could drift up to 8-5.

The rest of the field looks hopeless. I can’t remember a Grade 1race where there were two such dominant runners and the rest of the group seems deserving of being 80-1.

The $500,00 Spiral (G3) at Turfway Park is also a Road to the Kentucky Derby points race and is one of the best wagering races of the afternoon. A full field of 12 will line up, and while the race does not seem likely to produce the Kentucky Derby winner, coming up with the trifecta will be challenging. I take a stab at it below.


Here is today’s opener from Gulfstream Park to get the day off to a good start:

GP Race 1 OClm $25,000N1X (12:00 ET)
#3 Magna Breeze 5-1
#7 Don Camillo 8-1
#11 Aripeka 4-1
#1 Zander Zone 20-1

Analysis: Magna Breeze tracked the early pace and hung late in a runner up finish in the Texas bred Houston Turf. The gelding has now landed in the exacta in 12 of his 16 career starts on turf including a couple of state bred stakes wins. He is in tagged here facing Alw-1 foes for the Maker barn and looks like this is a good spot.

Don Camillo tracked the early pace, made a four wide move to get to the led and did not have enough punch left late in a fourth place finish at this level in his second start off the bench and since landing with the barn in the U.S. His lone win came at Dundalk last year going 1 1/4 miles in his second career start. He looks primed for a top effort here third off the bench for the Jerkens barn that has been sending out live runners at the meeting, 16 of 32 landing in the exacta. Decent value if he goes off near his 8-1 morning line.

Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 3,7 / 1,3,7,11
TRI: 3,7 / 1,3,7,11 / 1,3,4,7,11

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:

AQU Race 7 The Stud Muffin (4:38 ET)
#5 North Slope 5-1
#2 Point Hope 12-1
#3 Toledo Eddie 7-5
#4 African Fighter 3-1

Analysis: North Slope was a sharp winner last out against $20,000 claimers and was claimed out of the race by the Pino barn that is 24% winners first off the claim. This guy is capable of better, popping a 100 Beyer last year winning the Evening Attire on the inner track. That was sin the mud and we could see a wet track here. The Jacobson shipper is going to get all the attention and looks like a bounce candidate.

Point Hope beat $35,000 non-winners of three last out and he was claimed by the RRod barn that is 31% winners (with a +ROI) first off the claim. His numbers are coming up on the light side and he took her from Rice who had a strong inner track meeting, so not sure how much this guy can move forward. But worth a look if he goes off near his 12-1 morning line.

Wagering
WIN: #5 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 2,5 / 2,3,4,5
TRI: 2,5 / 2,3,4,5 / 1,2,3,4,5

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Turfway Park:

TP Race 10 The Spiral G3 (5:43 CT)
#12 Azar 5-1
#8 Kasseopia 6-1
#10 Airoforce 3-1
#3 Jensen 6-1

Analysis: Azar has shown ability on turf and dirt and now makes his first start on poly for the Pletcher barn. The colt won the With Anticipation (G2) on turf last summer at the Spa in his first start against winners and last out was a sharp winner against Alw-1 optional claimers on the main track at Gulfstream Park. Seven of the last eight winners of the Spiral had their previous race at Gulfstream Park. By Scat Daddy out of a Mineshaft mare, he is bred to like the wet stuff and looks primed for a top effort third off the bench. We should catch a fair price.

Kasseopia was off a beat slow last out over Tapeta in the El Camino real Derby (G3) and made a late run to finish third. It was his first start off a four-month layoff. He broke his maiden over the all-weather at Kempton last summer in his second career start. He is sent out by the Graham Motion barn that has won this race three times in the last eight editions. The trainer has been schooling his trainee in the mornings to avoid another poor start.

Airoforce is better than he showed last out where he faded to finish 10th in the Risen Star (G2) as the beaten favorite. He won the Bourbon (G3) last year on turf and missed in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) in a photo. His only go on the main track was in the slop where he won the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill Downs. He should rebound with a better effort but his price may end up on the light side.

Wagering
WIN: #12 to win at 4-1 or better.
EX: 8,12 / 3,8,10,12
TRI: 8,12 / 3,8,10,12 / 3,8,10,11,12

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Gulfstream Park:

GP Race 14 The Florida Derby G1 (6:48 ET)
#9 Mohaymen 1-1
#4 Nyquist 6-5
#7 Takeittotheedge 20-1
#2 Felllowship 15-1

Analysis: Mohaymen is likely going to dip below his even money morning line, but he has the advantage over Nyquist with having a pair of wins over the main track here, taking the Holy Bull (G2) and the Fountain of Youth (G2). His Beyers are identical over his last three starts (95) but he won his last pair with relative ease and he looks capable of cracking the triple digit mark here if needed. The colt has good tactical speed and should get a good spot. The $2.2 million Keeneland purchase is out of the stakes winner Justwhistledixie ($449,427) and is already proven at nine furlongs, winning the Remsen (G2) last year.

Nyquist ships east looking for a $1 million bonus as a sales grad of the Florida Fasig-Tipton sale. He was perfect in five starts last year but has just the seven-furlong San Vicente (G2) under his belt this year. He earned a career top speed fig in that outing, a 101 Beyer. By Uncle Mo out of a Forestry mare, he has enough pedigree to handle nine furlongs. The O'Neill barn is 20% winners moving runners form sprint to route. However, it just looks like Mohaymen has the edge here.

Takeittotheedge went gate to wire to break his maiden in his debut for the Dale Romans barn, drawing away to win by 7 3/4 lengths in good time. That was at seven furlongs and he now goes two turns here for the first time. he is by Broken Vow out of a Gone West mare that has dropped four other winners. He still looks as if he has some upside.

Wagering
WIN: #9 to win at 4-5 or better.
EX: 4,9 / 2,4,7,9
TRI: 4,9 / 2,4,7,9 / 2,4,7,8,9

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Gulfstream Park
R1: #1 Zander Zone 20-1
R3: #6 Tricky Call 10-1
R5: #2 Rich Daddy 8-1
R6: #3 Torch the Voucher 15-1
R9: #8 Conviction 8-1
R9: #1 Active Management 12-1
R10: #8 Griff 15-1
R12: #8 Elusive Collection 10-1
R14: #7 Takeittotheedge 20-1
R14: #2 Fellowship 15-1

Good luck today!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Woodbine Harness: Saturday 4/2 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF HARNESS

Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

20-CENT PICK 5: 2,5,6/2,3/5,6/5,8/1,3,5,7,8 = $24

EARLY PICK 4: 5,8/1,3,5,7,8/3,4,6,7/1,5 = $80

LATE PICK 4: 1,5/5,7/2,6,7/1,2,7 = $36

MEET STATS: 318 - 1018 / $1669.70 BEST BETS: 52 - 95 / $186.40

SPOT PLAYS: 21 - 95 / $218.00

Best Bet: WIZARD OF OSNEY (3rd)

Spot Play: THE CATAMOUNT KID (4th)


Race 1

(2) AINSLEYNOELLE went a big trip two back but was paced off her feet trying to challenge in wicked fractions last time. She fits here and could strike at a square price. (6) D GS PESQUERO drops and will take lots of action but often hangs late in her miles. She's the one to beat but I wouldn't take a short win price. (5) TRUE REFLECTION gets Filion which is a big angle, but her 2 for 38 record the past two years doesn't inspire great confidence.

Race 2

(2) NICKLE BAG was in an impossible spot early last week when there were no holes to drop into and he was forced to go the overland route while wicked fractions were being set. That he was only beaten 5 lengths off that trip is somewhat remarkable. He can get back on track here. (3) NIRVANA SEELSTER is the obvious 'now' horse and will have to be chased down here. (4) WAZZUP WAZZUP raced well last week as part of some rapid splits and should share here in his current sharp form.

Race 3

(5) WIZARD OF OSNEY escapes the white-hot Hillsonator here and should be very tough to beat in this field. (6) SHOOT THE THRILL either races great or breaks stride. If he stays flat, he will be the main danger. (4) MUSICAL SPELL couldn't keep up to a sharp winner late last week but could hang in better vs. this group.

Race 4

(5) THE CATAMOUNT KID was visibly gobbling up ground quickly in the final 1/8th of a mile last week in his season debut. There should be a quicker pace to chase here; call to upset. (8) FLAHERTY has got faster every week and is the one to beat but may face a tougher trip here. (7) EASY LOVER HANOVER shoots for six straight wins here but faces tougher opposition; minor award predicted.

Race 5

(3) CHEYENNE REIDER went a huge first up trip in defeat last week. He is back at the top of his game and could score at a decent price here if he finds decent cover. (5) MCKINNEY took a shuffle last week and is more dangerous racing from the pocket, which he may be able to secure early here. (1) MACH PRIDE faces much easier and can't be discounted although the rail may be no bargain here.

Race 6

(7) ELLIS PARK has had two tighteners now faces easier. The short field is a plus for him. It's go time. (3) GRIN FOR MONEY was a sharp winner last week and should be prominent again vs. these. (6) IDOLE DUHARAS will find these tougher but can't be dismissed totally considering how hit he's been.

Race 7

(1) SHIPPEN OUT was sharp in defeat last week but provided perfect cover for the winner and couldn't hold him off late. Those kinds of things have a habit of evening out and he should get his 2nd win of the year racing in this class soon. (5) TIGHTEN UP nailed the choice late and is another that races well in this class; using. (2) CASIMIR OVERDRIVE can follow along and take another share here starting from the inside.

Race 8

(7) REAL KID raced great in his 2016 debut and should move forward with that start under his belt; top call. (5) P H KENNY looks like the only real danger to the choice. Use both on your late Pick 4 tickets. (2) BAD AS CREEK couldn't reach the top two last week but stayed in and lacked room. He is capable of better.

Race 9

(6) MACH CODE had a brutal trip last week and still finished 2nd (although set back to 4th for causing interference). A slightly better journey could get him to the wire first here. (7) RAFA faces easier but has missed some time and has a penchant for coming up short. Your call at short odds. (2) NEWBIE moves into Wallace's barn off some impressive London miles and isn't out of this.

Race 10

(2) SING FOR ME GEORGE got the kinks out last week now faces much easier. He should be tough in here. (7) SHADOW PLACE goes first time for Laroque after shipping in; beware. (1) BIG CITY JEWEL has shown signs of improvement in his last two and has a chance to upset here. (4) COOL ROCK will be closing for a share as he seemingly always does.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Meadowlands: Saturday 4/2 Analysis
By Derick Giwner

DRF HARNESS

Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 3 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Race 7 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

MEET STATS: 134 - 465 / $768.00 (-$162.00) BEST BETS: 19 - 35 / $73.60 (+$3.60)

Best Bet: FOUR STARZZZ Z (5th)

Spot Play: A J DESTINY (1st)


Race 1

(4) A J DESTINY picks up a catch-driver as he exits the Amateur ranks. As we saw two starts back, the speed is there. (5) HALL PASS HELEN was in a bad spot last time and raced accordingly. I expect her to be pushing away with the top pick on Saturday. (1) HOT START closed well last week and should be able to get into the exotics if she minds her manners.

Race 2

(7) BROOKLYNITE was well thought of as a 2-year-old and never really showed his best. Now he adds Lasix and just cruised to an easy win despite the diminishing margin in his recent qualifier. Hop on board! (5) WHATA TWIST improved in his second comeback qualifier and picks up a catch-driver tonight. (2) SAFENSOUND HANOVER was David Miller’s choice off a decent morning effort.

Race 3

(4) NATHAN FEELSGOOD makes his third start back from winter vacation and gets some serious post relief. I’ll be surprised if he isn’t flying off the gate en route to a nice trip. (1) PEDRO’S DREAM displayed some early life and was even late last week. I believe he is starting to hit a form cycle and the better post should serve him well; using. (2) MYSTERIOUS MOMENT is hard to back with just one win in his last 28 starts. But have you seen the rest of this field?

Race 4

(5) GOOD CITATIONS has been closing for a share week after week and those are usually horses you want to avoid on the top of your tickets. That said, this bottom level claimer comes up relatively blank and he should be able to stick closer to the action. (6) JETTY pulled the pocket on the final turn, brushed paint with the leader and paced home steadily on the drop to this claiming price last time. You have to think he’ll be trying to wire this field. (7) CAMWISER has upset at this level two of the last three weeks. Fool me once, shame on you . . . fool me three times, shame on me?

Race 5

(2) FOUR STARZZZ Z never got a chance to prove me right or wrong as one of my top plays a week ago when the races were cancelled due to a power outage. Facing another group of mostly dullards, he looks like a single on my multi-race exotics. (1) BAKIN ON THE BEACH finally draws well and could take advantage at a price. (9) RESTLESS NATIVE comes back off a mini rest and has the early speed to make some serious noise.

Race 6

(4) DOVUTO HANOVER didn’t show much at Yonkers, but I think the big track is more up his alley. He returns here against much easier foes and should prove tough. (6) ASHLEY’S HUSBAND won convincingly at this level last week; logical repeat candidate. (3) PANSFORMATIVE was one of the sharpest horses on the grounds before the break last out with a new driver in tow. Bongiorno returns to the sulky tonight.

Race 7

(4) ODDS ON EQUULEUS was a bit flat in his first try since September. He should be ready for more now and faces an easier group. (3) REAL NICE technically drops down after finishing a solid second in NW16000 last time; must use. (7) MCARDLES LIGHTNING is feeling good now but will be tested for class against the top pair.

Race 8

(5) RESPECTABLE DREAM got passed by plenty but does show an even line at Yonkers last out. Five-year-old switches to the bigger track and seems likely to find some early speed. (7) GOOD SIDE wasn’t going far from post eight at Freehold a week ago and gets a nice driver change tonight. (9) DAVID THE SAINT has been facing better across the river at Yonkers.

Race 9

I’m up in the air as to whether (9) J EAGLE FEATHER is up to beating this veteran field in his first start since August. The bottom line is he should offer good value and I was impressed with his qualifiers. (4) CHARGER BLUE CHIP came up short after nearly seven weeks on the sidelines. I’m expecting better on Saturday. (5) MARTINI HANOVER has proven himself at the Big M over the years but I’m inclined to use him underneath only. (7) INVICTUS HANOVER has been reasonably sharp and could get a win given the right trip.

Race 10

(5) GRATIAS DEO held well after taking air last time. Tonight he faces a blank field and should dominate. (4) ROCKIN ROBERT seems to be in a good spot to flash speed and go a long way. (2) TWINCREEKS JEESE ran into stretch traffic last time. His prior effort at this level resulted in a win. (1) BUCKEYE IN CHARGE has raced well with Campbell in the bike.

Race 11

Just as important as finding strong handicapping angles is knowing when it is best to sit on the sidelines. I simply have no strong opinion on this race. For the record only, my top picks are (3) BACKDRAFT HANOVER, (1) HOBOKEN HANOVER, (4) UF FAST FEELIN and (2) TALKTOMECOURAGE N.

Race 12

(4) WINDS OF CHANGE stays in the same class but actually tackles a softer group. His class should show in this spot. (5) JUNGLE OF TERROR won easily in his last start in this condition. (3) SOUTHWIND INDY steps up off a convincing score. (2) K SLATER should save ground and sneak into the wider exotics.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Saturday 4/2 Analysis
By Matt Rose

DRF HARNESS

MEET STATS: 93 - 309 / $516.40

BEST BETS: 14 - 26 / $51.60

Best Bet: LUMINOSITY (5th)

Spot Play: MADIBA MAGIC N (11th)


Race 1

(5) ROCK TO GLORY kicked home nicely off a good trip last out to be second best; Godinez trainee appears overdue. (1) LIGHTNING RAIDER N has been second best in his last three and is blessed with another good post position. (3) SAFE HARBOR has been poor in his last two but note there's a barn change here; improvement is possible.

Race 2

(4) DRUNKEN DESIRE A gets some needed post relief and he's proven more than capable at this level. (3) IM SUPERSONIC A is another in a seemingly endless supply of Down-Under imports who will take tons of money and likely race accordingly. (1) KIWI IDEAL N didn't fire at all last out but his prior efforts were good.

Race 3

(7) LET'S DRINK ON IT failed in the Levy but jogged at odds-on three back at this level; I don't expect the poor post to be a problem. (3) SNAP TO IT A is reunited with Bartlett and they may be headed to the front early. (1) BIG N BAD returns locally and was a good second two back; he's as good as any in here.

Race 4

(3) GIVENUPDREAMING finished decently in last week's closers race and the Burke trainee can show more with the class and post relief. (2) MOONLITEONTHEBEACH is in razor-sharp form and is the one to beat. (5) ALBERTO CONTADOR N was a front-end winner last week but I'm not sure he can make the lead tonight.

Race 5

(6) LUMINOSITY has gotten roughed up in his last two starts over the added distance; three back he trotted 1:53 4/5 right off the bench. (8) MAJOR ATHENS is the current King of the Open and he has the speed to overcome the post assignment. (1) THERESADEMONINME gets the best of the draw and seems capable of keeping up with these.

Race 6

(6) GREAT VINTAGE ran super last week to be second best at a big price; Takter trainee has tons of class and is a proven Open-type commodity. There could be value to be had in this wide-open affair. (5) FOILED AGAIN came up just shy while all out on the front end but it was a good effort; he'll be reaching the winner's circle sooner rather than later. (3) MELMERBY BEACH upset Foiled Again last week with a rugged uncovered sprint and clearly he's got a chance tonight.

Race 7

Despite the very tough spot I have to stick with (8) BIT OF A LEGEND N. The potentially best horse in the series needs to fire early and get a bit lucky with the trip but there will be some value wagering on him tonight. (4) P H SUPERCAM gets needed post relief and is clearly the one to beat from this spot; will probably be odds-on. (1) PHIL YOUR BOOTS finally lands inside and should sit a clean trip.

Race 8

All eyes will be on (7) WIGGLE IT JIGGLEIT tonight as he makes his Levy debut. Champ barely broke a sweat last week at Dover in a nice tune-up and we all know the half mile track won't be a problem. Does Montrell Teague have a clear path to the lead tonight? Hopefully so. (6) ALL BETS OFF is a legit contender and he could be leaving in front of the choice then releasing for a trip. (2) TE KAWAU N sat a three hole and finished with pace in his U.S. debut; could be better tonight.

Race 9

(4) TAKE IT BACK TERRY seems like the underrated type but all he does is take care of business week in and week out; Burke trainee has quietly banked over $500K in the last two seasons and deserves top billing here. (2) MACH IT SO was well prepared in round one, then was in a tough spot last week. Bamond trainee has to be respected here. (1) TEXAS TERROR N has been outracing his odds and he should land a nice share.

Race 10

(2) CLINT WESTWOOD was second best to a good winner after saving ground last out; a similar trip could be in the works tonight. (6) MODERN YANKEE certainly needed last week's start and he can show more. (4) CAUTION SIGNS gets some post relief and is always a player at this level.

Race 11

(4) MADIBA MAGIC N did the best he could do last week from post eight when he rallied for a small check; he gets post relief and should be able to leave aggressively. (1) ARTFUL WAY was a good ground-saving second last week in his local return. (2) SECOND WIND N also gets post relief and the Tritton trainee will be a player.

Race 12

(1) FIRST CLASS HORSE has underwhelmed since shipping cross-country but this may be a spot where he can do some damage. (3) SAM'S ESCAPE is up in class off a solid 1:50 4/5 score. (2) REUBEN BROGDEN N is also facing tougher off three consecutive sharp efforts.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Saturday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Aqueduct (1st) Midnight Champagne, 6-1
(9th) Cerro, 7-2


Charles Town (5th) Holy Dixieland, 3-1
(8th) Red Sentinal, 7-2


Golden Gate Fields (3rd) Andale, 3-1
(8th) Taparri, 6-1


Gulfstream Park (4th) Bold Contender, 4-1
(9th) Dig Deep, 3-1


Hawthorne (1st) Blackhawk Warrior, 7-2
(7th) Even Fever, 3-1


Laurel (4th) I'll Play My Hand, 7-2
(10th) Best Number, 3-1


Mahoning Valley (1st) Carolyn, 7-2
(8th) Starship Captain, 3-1


Oaklawn Park (2nd) Captain Payback, 7-2
(6th) Man of Quality, 6-1


Parx Racing (2nd) Taxplayer, 8-1
(9th) True Knockout, 4-1


Penn National (2nd) Another Chance, 5-1
(6th) Galon Hapus, 6-1


Santa Anita (1st) Storm the Shore, 4-1
(10th) Storm Comin Thru, 8-1


Sunland Park (4th) Flashphone, 8-1
(9th) Born a Ruler, 7-2


Tampa Bay Downs (3rd) Stupefaction, 6-1
(9th) Old South Ball, 4-1


Turf Paradise (3rd) Kowgirl Vibe, 6-1
(7th) Rocked Twice, 3-1


Turfway Park (2nd) Discreet Glen, 9-2
(11th) Scissors and Tape, 3-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Saturday's six-pack

Odds to win next week's Masters golf tournament........

13-2-- Jason Day- Won six of last 13 tournaments he played in.

8-1-- Jordan Spieth/Rory McIlroy

10-1-- Bubba Watson-- Lefties seem to do well at Augusta National.

12-1-- Adam Scott

15-1-- Phil Mickelson/Rickie Fowler

20-1- Dustin Johnson

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sharp Bettor

Sharp Bettor's Free Pick for Friday, April 1, 2016, NBA.

This is the 5th road game over the last six contests for Philadelphia, including a West Coast trip. The 76ers are on a 5-0 run under the total, 4-0 under on the road. Philadelphia is No. 28 in the NBA in points allowed and last in scoring. The Hornets moved a little closer to clinching a playoff spot as Nicolas Batum had 19 points, 12 rebounds and 12 assists leading Charlotte to a 100-85 victory over the Philadelphia 76ers on Tuesday night. The 76ers were playing without top big man Nerlens Noel, who missed his fourth straight game with a right knee contusion. Also out for Philadelphia were forwards Jerami Grant (right knee/quad) and Richaun Holmes (Achilles'). Rookie Jahlil Okafor is sidelined for the season with a torn right meniscus. Charlotte is No. 9 in the NBA in points allowed and 4-0 under the total at home. The under is 16-7 in the Hornets last 23 games playing on 2 days rest.

Play the 76ers/Charlotte Under the total.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Roz Wins

Roz's Friday, April 1, 2016, Free CBB Pick:

Game 3 of this series tied at 1-1, so the title is decided here. Morehead State has allowed 50% shooting to Nevada in both the first two games of this series. Nevada Reno is home, where they play their best basketball. The Wolf Pack are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games.

Play Nevada.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Cokin

Baseball season is here! That means it’s time for the annual rundown of calls on which teams will win each division. Here goes!

AL East: Blue Jays

AL Central: Tigers

AL West: Rangers

NL East: Nationals

NL Central: Cubs

NL West: Giants

Toronto could be every bit as dangerous offensively as they were last season. Not the best rotation on the planet, but I do see Stroman as an ace and I like the add of Storen to the bullpen mix. Boston looks tough and Mookie Betts might be worth a long shot bet to win the MVP. The Yankees could have the best three-inning bullpen ever once Chapman is off suspension, but I don’t trust their rotation and old age is a concern. The Rays can pitch but that offense looks weak, and it’s vice versa for Baltimore.

I see the Tigers rebounding from a 2015 season where most everything went wrong. The relief corps is better and Upton is a great fit in an offense where he won’t have to carry the heavy load as he’s had to at prior stops. The defensing champion Royals are still likely to be contenders. The Indians have some dynamite arms, but the offensive outlook seems bleak to me. The Twins could fall back a bit this season, though they do look like the team of the future in this division. I haven’t liked much about the White Sox for some time, and while they could improve some this year, I don’t think they’re a real threat to be playing come October.

The Rangers were the biggest surprise for me last season. This season, the only surprise is if they don’t make the playoffs. Houston has the game’s brightest new light in Carlos Correa, but I’m a little iffy on the rotation. The Astros could take a small step backward this year. Seattle figures to be improved so some extent thanks to some changes off the field and a better rotation. But too many holes in the lineup and I don’t trust the bullpen. I know lots of observers think the Athletics improve but I don’t see it with that starting pitcher corps. The Angels could finish as high as third if the pitching holds up, but I don’t see them contending and there’s little help on the way from the farm system.

The Nationals should be vastly improved. Dusty Baker has fixed the clubhouse and he’ll be better in-game than Matt Williams was. This team arrived in spring training with a pissed off mindset and while exhibition results aren’t very reliable, I really like what I’m seeing here. The Mets have the great arms and they should hit enough. But I do not trust the bullpen and any injuries to the rotation would be critical. The Marlins are probably good enough to hang around the divisional race but I don’t see them winning close to 90, and that’s likely what it will take to make the playoffs. The Braves and Phillies are in rebuild mode and I’d be shocked if either team approaches .500.

The Cubs have big time pressure with the big time expectations, but they are indeed loaded. I’m not buying the projected decline some have for the Pirates. I picked the Cubs to win the division, but expect the Bucs to be right there. The Cardinals always find a way, and while I think they’re third best in this sector, I’ve learned never to count them out. The Reds have some interesting young arms and I can see them perhaps winning 75 games. The Brewers have a legit shot to lose 100 and they probably won’t care as they’re focusing on a system rebuild right now.

The Giants have some ifs in the rotation behind Bumgarner but if Cueto and Samardzija deliver solid seasons, I like their chances. The Dodgers have lots of strengths but I still don’t like their bullpen. I’m also very iffy on their rotation behind Kershaw. The Diamondbacks are all-in to win now. But I’m surprised they spent as much as they did without adding to a very shaky bullpen mix and I wonder about the defense as well. The AJ Pollock broken elbow that needs surgery is seriously bad news. Neither the Rockies nor the Padres would appear to have any chance, and I would not be surprised if San Dego approaches 100 losses.


Bonus Play Saturday Take: OVER 89 WASHINGTON NATIONALS

The Washington Nationals went into 2015 with very high expectations. They were considered a cinch to capture the NL East and armed with what looked like strengths virtually everywhere the Nats were a very popular choice to win it all. Of course, that sure didn’t happen. Murphy’s Law seemed to follow this team around all season and Washington turned out to be a monster flop.

The off season actually didn’t start any better with the somewhat embarrassing Bud Black fiasco, where the Nats appeared to have a deal in place, and then they didn’t. But since that gaffe, things have started to break right for this team.

Dusty Baker is now back in charge of a team, and he might be the perfect fit for the Nationals. No one will ever confuse Dusty with Dick Williams when it comes to in-game decision making. But I think the reason he got this job, aside from his apparent willingness to take it for less money than others, is Baker’s expertise when it comes to clubhouse harmony and esprit de corps.

The early returns on that count have been spectacular. The Nats have been playing even the meaningless March games with lots of positive energy and I actually did think it was important for this team to establish a winning attitude in March. Mission accomplished on that count.

Bryce Harper is as good as it gets. A healthy Anthony Rendon is capable of contending for a batting title. Daniel Murphy won’t win any Gold Gloves at second base, but he’s a very nice fit in this offense. Ben Revere is a solid catalyst at the top of the order. I’m assuming better seasons are in store for Ryan Zimmerman , Jayson Werth and Wilson Ramos. I don’t see shortstop as a strength, but it’s not a disaster area, either. The depth chart isn’t bad, either.

As for the arms, Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg can potentially be a dominant 1-2 combo. Gio Gonzalez will have his usual control problems, but should still be okay as a mid-rotation commodity and I have no problems with Tanner Roark and Joe Ross. Lucas Giolito is now very close, and he’ll bump someone to the bullpen when he arrives.

Jonathan Papelbon is no longer a top of the line closer, but he’s still capable of handling the ninth inning. I will admit, however, that this is the one area on the Nationals I’m least comfortable with. For me, the sooner they get Giolito up with the big club, which will bump someone to the bullpen, the better I’ll like it.

The Nationals are not exactly flying under the radar, but if they got overrated last season, I think a case can be made they’re underrated heading into 2016. The Nats should feast on the two really bad teams in the NL East, and I wouldn’t rule out 25 wins alone against the Phillies and Braves. I believe this is a team capable of winning in the neighborhood of 95 games, and I’m therefore comfortable playing them to get well OVER the current win total option that’s out there.