Saturday 4/11/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Modest winning streak has Everton climbing table
Andrew Avery

Everton heads into Saturday's fixture against Swansea riding a modest, but important, three-match winning streak.

The Toffees have been somewhat of a disappointment this season and have been in the bottom half of the table for much of the campaign. Nine points in the previous three matches has helped them climb to 12th in the table with seven matches remaining.

Everton has beaten Newcastle 3-0, QPR 1-2 and Southampton 1-0 over the past three games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Auto: Drivers to Watch - Fort Worth

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series
Duck Commander 500
Saturday, April 11 – 7:30 p.m. ET
Texas Motor Speedway – Fort Worth, TX

The Sprint Cup Series continues with the Duck Commander 500, an annual race that has taken place in early April since 1997. The 1.5-mile, asphalt track has not typically been dominated by a few, but by many as there are only three multiple winners with nobody winning more than twice.

This short list includes Jeff Burton, Matt Kenseth and most recently Greg Biffle in 2012 when he posted the fastest time in the history of this race when he completed the 334 laps in 3:07:12. The large 24-degree corners have led to some of the fastest speeds on the series and last year it was Joey Logano who earned one of his nine career victories after the race was extended due to a green-white-checker finish.

Roush Fenway Racing has been able to net by far the most wins in this specific event, getting seven winners over its existence with Biffle’s impressive 2012 performance being the last.

Let’s take a look through the entrants and see who could get a win this week.

Drivers to Bet

Matt Kenseth (10/1) - If there is one racer who has dominated on this course it is Kenseth with his driver-best rating of 107.2 here as he has two wins and 13 top-five finishes in his 25 starts. His 17 top-10s also ties him with Jimmie Johnson for most here and he leads all other racers with an impressive average finish of 8.9. He ranks 11th in the Sprint Cup Standings this year and is coming off his best performance when he finished fourth at Martinsville, leading a total of 11 laps and adding to the 54 laps that he had led previously on the season. Kenseth should be able to pull down at least a second straight top-10 in Texas this week with a very good chance of a 32nd career Sprint Cup win on the way.

Greg Biffle (60/1) - Biffle’s top-10 finish at both the Budweiser Dual #2 and Daytona 500 show that he still has some left in the tank at the age of 45, but he has finished 14th or worse in each of the first five Sprint Cup Series races this year. Texas Motor Speedway is a perfect spot for him to get out of this funk with his two past victories and eight top-fives being a big factor. He has an average green-flag speed of 173.396 MPH when running on the track, third most among drivers, and has spent 4,457 laps in the top-15 (74%), ranking the fourth-most among his peers while getting a series-high 742 quality passes. Biffle should be able to put up his best showing of the year in Forth Worth this week.

Carl Edwards (15/1) – Edwards grabbed the win at this event back in 2008 and has also had solid showings when running on this track with two other victories as he has had the fastest lap 358 times (third-most). His driver rating of 97.5 is sixth-best at the venue and he has spent 73.5% of his time (4,425 laps) amongst the top-15. He has been consistent with an average finish of 14.3 over his past three races on the year, but should have no issues getting near the top of the leaderboard when he hits the asphalt in Forth Worth on Saturday.

Jamie McMurray (50/1) - McMurray has looked solid this season since a poor 40th-place in Atlanta to kickoff the Sprint Cup Series, ranking 21st or better in each successive race with three top-11s. He was the runner-up in Phoenix and currently is 14th in the standings. The seven-time Sprint Cup Series winner has started at Texas Motor Speedway 22 times in his career and has earned five top-five finishes as his average finish of 17.7 ranks him 15th in the tracks history. McMurray’s season has been trending upwards and he should be expected to be near the front of the pack once again.

Danica Patrick (300/1) - This is more of a contrarian pick considering in her five starts at this track she has a poor average finish of 28th, but her season is moving in the right direction as she comes off a seventh in Martinsville and is sitting at 15th in the Sprint Cup Standings. Her best finish in the series in the past was 27th, so this year is certainly a step in the right direction and she could grab the momentum from her last start to propel her into career-best campaign.

Odds to win Duck Commander 500

Kevin Harvick 4/1
Jimmie Johnson 6/1
Kurt Busch 6/1
Brad Keselowski 10/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr 10/1
Jeff Gordon 10/1
Joey Logano 10/1
Matt Kenseth 10/1
Denny Hamlin 12/1
Martin Truex Jr 12/1
Carl Edwards 15/1
Kasey Kahne 20/1
Kyle Larson 20/1
Ryan Newman 25/1
Tony Stewart 40/1
Jamie McMurray 50/1
Clint Bowyer 60/1
David Ragan 60/1
Greg Biffle 60/1
Paul Menard 60/1
Ryan Blaney 100/1
Field (Any Other Driver) 100/1
Austin Dillon 200/1
AJ Allmendinger 300/1
Aric Almirola 300/1
Danica Patrick 300/1
Casey Mears 500/1
Ricky Stenhouse 500/1
Sam Hornish Jr 500/1
Trevor Bayne 500/1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Duck Commander 500
By Micah Roberts

It seems like an eternity since NASCAR last raced, but it was only two weeks ago at Martinsville. The drivers and crews got a much needed weekend off for Easter Sunday after going full throttle every weekend since early February.

Just in case you may forgot what has happened so far over the first six races of 2015, here's a refresher: Kevin Harvick is rocking this NASCAR world!

Harvick has never won a Sprint Cup race at Texas Motor Speedway, but he had also never won at Las Vegas until dominating that race last month. It's his current form that make him the 4/1 favorite (Bet $100 to win $400) to win Saturday night's Duck Commander 500, and that price may generous just because he has a considerable advantage over almost everyone in the series. We've seen Jimmie Johnson dominate in the past, but the dropoff to the second best competitor wasn't as prominent as it is with Harvick this year.

Harvick has had six top-10 finishes during the six races and has averaged a finish of 2.7, that includes two wins and three second-places. His string of eight consecutive top-2 finishes or better came to end at Martinsville, but that was to be expected because it’s never been his most consistent track. He may have never won at Texas, but similar tracks suggest he’s ready more than ever to cross Texas off his ’things to do’ list.

We’ve seen action already on 1.5-mile layouts at Texas’ sister tracks of Atlanta and Las Vegas and he led the most laps in each. Both tracks have strong similarities to Texas and there really isn’t a reason to suggest he won’t race well Saturday. The only thing that might stop him is if he gets involved in an accident and or has engine problems, but his chances of getting involved in a wreck are mitigated because he‘s out front leading so much.

So with the understanding that no one is in Harvick’s class for this race, is there any value in betting another driver to win?

'Value' may be a strong word to use, but we can at least make a case for a couple.

-- Jimmie Johnson has won three of the past five Texas races and has four overall. The positive with Johnson is that he won at Atlanta despite Harvick’s dominance. However, 6-to-1 odds certainly isn’t enough to get excited about and holds little ‘value’ considering Harvick’s edge.

-- Joey Logano has finished in the top-10 of all six races like Harvick and Martin Truex Jr. and won this race last season. He led 85 laps at Atlanta and finished fourth and led 47 laps at Vegas before settling for 10th. At 10/1 odds, he might be worth a poke.

-- Brad Keselowski finished third in the fall Texas race last season, but hasn’t wowed on the down force tracks like did last season. Even his win at Fontana came with lots of luck involved as his only lap led was the last lap. Logano would be the better choice among the Penske duo.

-- Dale Earnhardt Jr. grabbed his first career Cup win at Texas in 2000, but hasn’t won there since. However, when looking at his performance on 1.5’s along with Fontana’s 2-mile layout, Junior has been close to Harvick with finishes of sixth or better in all three. He offers the best value among the Hendrick drivers.

-- Kurt Busch might be the closest to teammate Harvick among all drivers, but you’re only getting 6/1 odds with him. Busch won at Texas in 2009 and the amazing thing about Busch is that even though he missed the first three races, he’s 24th in points.

-- Denny Hamlin showed lots of speed on the three down force tracks this year and the Gibbs team appears to be getting better and faster. Hamlin swept the Texas season in 2010 and has a 10.8 average finish in 19 starts.

-- Matt Kenseth is a two-time Texas winner and he’s in the same boat as Hamlin with a team that isn’t as good as Harvick, but they’re gaining weekly. Kenseth has a track-best 7.5 average finish at Texas since 2005, a span of 20 races.

Top-5 Finish Prediction:

1) #4 Kevin Harvick (4/1)
2) #22 Joey Logano (10/1)
3) #88 Dale Earnhardt Jr (10/1)
4) #41 Kurt Busch (6/1)
5) #11 Denny Hamlin (12/1)


HEADLINES
• Roberts: Duck Commander 500
• Sportsbook: Drivers to Watch - Fort Worth
• Schumacher's son tests Formula 4 car
• Penske crowding IndyCar and NASCAR
• Mercedes looking to rebound at China
• Karam joins Ganassi for New Orleans
• CFH Racing adds Hildebrand to Indy 500
• Andretti adds de Silvestro to NOLA lineup
• Chevy penalized for IndyCar violations
MORE HEADLINES

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Logano looks to lasso competition at Texas -- again
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE

NASCAR Wire Service

Last April, Joey Logano made his "Lone Star Statement."

A message to the NASCAR world that he was ready to fulfill his predicted potential and compete with the sport's elite drivers.

The kid from Connecticut took four tires during the final caution period and outdueled four-time NASCAR Sprint Cup Series champion Jeff Gordon on a green-white-checkered finish to win the Duck Commander 500 at Texas Motor Speedway -- his first victory of 2014.

Logano did have a solid 2013 campaign with a win and 19 top-10 finishes, but his Texas triumph served as a launching pad to a 2014 season where he joined NASCAR's elite class of drivers. The No. 22 Ford pilot nearly doubled his career win total of three with five victories and made the Championship 4 Round of the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup. He has carried the momentum into this season, winning the Daytona 500 and currently ranks second behind defending NSCS champion Kevin Harvick in the points standings.

In Saturday's Duck Commander 500 at Texas Motor Speedway (7:30 p.m. ET on FOX), Logano will attempt to achieve a feat no driver has accomplished before -- win consecutive spring races at "The Great American Speedway."

Logano's task will be tough as parity has been the spring race trend at Texas. Nine different drivers have won the last nine spring races at the 1.5-mile quad-oval. But Logano has contended in almost every race there since joining Team Penske in 2013, claiming three top fives in four races.

"I'm pretty excited to go back to Texas and try to defend our win," Logano said. "That place has quickly turned into one of my favorite tracks on the circuit. It's just a place that suits me and my driving style well and we as a team have excelled at since I came over here to Team Penske."

Logano has not just been good at Texas, but also 1.5-mile tracks in general. He leads the NSCS with a 7.3 average finish at courses of that distance since last season.

The TMS track-record holder (four wins) and defending fall race winner Jimmie Johnson will try to knock off Logano. Johnson also owns the second-highest driver rating (105.7) and third-best average running position (10.9) at Texas, but he has never won there in the spring.

"We have had a lot of good runs at Texas," Johnson said. "The surface is real wide and gives you a lot of options as a driver to find speed and find a good balance. It's just a fun track."

Two drivers other than Logano and Johnson who would not be surprising to see in Victory Lane on Saturday are Brad Keselowski and Harvick. Neither has won at Texas, but remember, parity reigns supreme there. Since 2014, Keselowski, Harvick and Johnson lead the NSCS with three wins each in the 13 races at 1.5-mile tracks.

Roush Fenway roars into Texas

Roush Fenway Racing's struggles in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series have been well-documented.

But the organization's performance in NASCAR XFINITY Series has been a totally different story.

RFR is excelling in "the series where names are made" behind the talents of young drivers Chris Buescher, Ryan Reed and Darrell Wallace Jr., as well as wily veteran Elliott Sadler. All four sit in the top 10 of the series points standings heading into Friday's O'Reilly Auto Parts 300 (8:30 p.m. ET on FOX Sports 1). Buescher, Reed and Wallace rank second, fourth and fifth respectively, while Sadler occupies the eighth spot.

Following a stellar rookie campaign where he won a race and placed seventh in the final points standings, Buescher trails Ty Dillon by a mere five points for the top perch on the circuit. The Prosper, Texas, native heads back to his home state with three top fives in five starts this season and the second-highest driver rating among full-time competitors (100.5).

Homecomings have not treated Buescher well in the past though. He will attempt to improve on his average finish of 19.0 in three previous starts at Texas Motor Speedway.

"I always look forward to going back racing in front of the home crowd," Buescher said. "It has been a nice off weekend to sit and regroup, but our Safety-Kleen 60 team is ready to get back to the track. We had a solid top-five run in Fontana to build off of."

Daytona-winner Reed has struggled at Texas as well with finishes of 17 and 20, but Wallace loves competing in the Lone Star State. Wallace will be making his first XFINITY Series start at TMS, but claims three top 10s there in the NASCAR Camping World Truck Series.

"I'm excited to get back to one of my favorite places," Wallace said. "I'm hoping for a little redemption, as I blew up in the fall Truck race. I'm really looking to building off our run in California and settling in these next few races."

As thrilled as RFR's young guns are to head to Texas, none of them should be more eager to take the 1.5-mile quad-oval than their seasoned leader Sadler, an established competitor at "The Great American Speedway." The 39-year-old Virginian boasts a NSCS win at Texas (2004) and owns two XFINITY Series poles there.

"Texas has proven to be one of my best race tracks on the NASCAR circuit," Sadler said. "Texas is a fast track with a ton of tire wear. As a team, we've been moving forward in the right direction. Each race we've finished better than the previous week. Hopefully the trend continues this Friday night and we'll be celebrating our first win of the season in victory lane under the lights."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Hoosier Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 1 - Post: 5:15 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 88 - Purse:$15000 - CLAIMING PRICE $35,000


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 6 MADDYSONOFAGUN 7/2


# 5 PREMIER 6/1


# 1 EL SHOOTER 6/1


MADDYSONOFAGUN should be supported as our best wagering option in this race. Recent ratings for the driver - 19 percent win - make this gelding a clear choice in the race. PREMIER - Considered a solid wager based solely on his high top prize stat. Have to strongly consider a contender coming out of the Hoosier Park 5 position. The win rate is tremendous, way above normal. EL SHOOTER - Has been running competently lately and his style of running should result in a clear-cut performance. The trainer/horse combination statistics point out that this combination are solid in the money finishers when working together.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Miami Valley

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 7 - Post: 8:30 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 87 - Purse:$11550 - HORSES & GELDINGS CLAIMING $12,500 W/ALLOWANCES


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 5 WINCHESTER'S PUNCH 3/1


# 1 NEWSPEAK 3/1


# 2 AND WE'LL SEE YA 5/2


After thorough analysis by the consortium, WINCHESTER'S PUNCH comes out as the top choice. He has been performing soundly and the speed ratings are among the top in the group of animals. This gelding has been racing versus some of the most competitive company in this pack within the recent past. With a really good 85 speed figure last time out, will most likely be a factor in this contest. NEWSPEAK - Really liked this gelding's last race. Ran a solid 86 speed rating. Major contender. With a solid driver, who has won at a really good 28 percent rate over the last 30 days, this has to be one of the best picks. AND WE'LL SEE YA - Gelding has one of the most favorable win percentages in the group of animals and that could be the deciding factor when they head for home.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Aqueduct

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 4 - Maiden Special Weight - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $70000 Class Rating: 92

OR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 116 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.



RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 9 ARBITRATOR 5/1


# 2 TIZ FOR DADDY 12/1


# 7 LONE TRADER 15/1


ARBITRATOR is the top wager in this race. With one of the top riders in terms of gains at the window, don't count this colt out. The Equibase Speed Figure of 94 from his latest affair looks very strong in here. With a nice Equibase class rating average of 94, has one of the most favorable class advantages in this field. TIZ FOR DADDY - This racer enters today's outing with second time Lasix. Has been running soundly lately and ought to be up near the front end early on. LONE TRADER - With a quite good 92 Equibase Speed Figure last time out, will unquestionably be a factor in this race. One of the most favorable win percentages between this jockey and handler make this gelding dangerous.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mountaineer

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 7 - Allowance - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $16200 Class Rating: 64

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE MARCH 11 ALLOWED 3 LBS. W V A RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).



RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 1A VOODOOTHATYOUDO 1/2


# 4 MISS SLEWPY 6/1


# 2 YOU BE READY 10/1


VOODOOTHATYOUDO looks to be a very good contender. Has respectable Equibase Speed Figures and has to be considered for a wager for this event. Had one of the top speed figures of this group in her last contest. Has run soundly when moving a dirt route race. MISS SLEWPY - Had one of the top speed figs of this field in her last outing. Has a solid shot for this event if you like back class. YOU BE READY - Has performed well lately in route races, posting a nifty 60 avg speed fig. A solid 73 avg Equibase class rating may give this filly a distinct class edge against this field.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Golden Gate - Race #1 - Post: 12:45pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $7,000 Class Rating: 78

Rating: Golden Dollar

#2 SKY TRIBUTE (ML=7/5)
#3 NANCYPEGGY (ML=9/2)
#5 CHEESE (ML=8/1)


SKY TRIBUTE - Russell 'The Muscle' Baze and his horse make quite a duo. Together they've been winning at a clip of 60 percent. Have to make this mare a contender; she comes off a nice outing on March 20th. NANCYPEGGY - Trainer Morey moves this horse down the ladder based on class to face a lower class field. Look for a good effort with this class drop. Aboard this horse on Mar 14th and Lopez is yet again in the irons this time. This mare is the longer price of the 'split' entry from the barn of Morey. Look for this one to go all the way to the winner's circle at some respectable odds right here in this race. Ran fifth in last race, but not more than five from the lead at the end. Mare made a nice late run going 5 1/2 furlongs on Mar 14th. I have to like her chances stretching out today. CHEESE - Have to give this mare a chance. Ran a strong race last time out within the last 30 days. When Sullivan and Brook combine forces on equines the ROI has been great at +141.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 JALAPENOBUSINESS (ML=9/5), #1 WISE (ML=8/1),

JALAPENOBUSINESS - Improbable that this horse will finish better than she did last time out of the box when placing third. WISE - This filly is always around, but just doesn't get the job done. Difficult to play her on the win end. Just can't wager on this entrant. Didn't show me anything positive last out or on Feb 28th. This questionable contender ran a mediocre speed fig last out. She shouldn't show signs of improvement and will probably get beat in today's event running that rating.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - SKY TRIBUTE - Coming off her last race with the top speed figure of 79 at Golden Gate. She is the mare to beat today.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #5 CHEESE to win if we can get at least 7/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [3,5]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [2,3,5] Total Cost: $6

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Gulfstream - Race #6 - Post: 3:30pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $15,000 Class Rating: 69

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#4 GATO MACHO (ML=7/2)


GATO MACHO - Colt is a few starts into a comeback here. Should give a big performance today. A racer coming back this quickly after a sharp contest is a good omen. Look at this pattern of improvement. 39/59/69 are the last 3 speed ratings. This colt's last speed fig notched on Mar 27th is uppermost in last race Equibase speed figures.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 WIZARDS CLIP (ML=4/1), #5 POTOCHON (ML=5/1), #7 ROCKET BOULEVARD (ML=8/1),

POTOCHON - Not the right 'situation' in this event. ROCKET BOULEVARD - Most of the time I need a sprinter to have some success lately in sprint contests in order to bet on him. This horse ran a substandard speed rating in the last race. He shouldn't show signs of improvement and will probably get beat today running that figure.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Play #4 GATO MACHO to win if you can get odds of 1/1 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:
None

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Ellis Starr at Keeneland

Race #10 - Rating = 2
#5 Henry Jones - Fair odds 2/1
#2 Comfort - Fair odds 2/1


This year's Coolmore Lexington Stakes features a field of 7, with knocks on the likely favorites. For example Fame and Power ships in from California off a maiden win and won wire-to-wire so is likely to have a lot of early speed, but so is Divining Rod. Donworth won nicely from off the pace in his only race but he two runs 2 turns for the first time and is giving away enough experience at the trip to warrant looking at others for the win.

Contenders: Nearly every year at the meeting, Hall-of-Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas "pulls a rabbit out of the hat," so to speak, and could do that here with Henry Jones. The colt was making his first start after 4 1/2 months off last month, in a sprint which served as a perfect prep for going long here, and he led from nearly start to finish. Before that, in his only two-turn race on dirt, here at Keeneland, he finished 3rd in a race from which both the winner and runner-up improved from to win. With a lot of improvement to show us 2nd off the layoff and with excellent jockey Lopez in the saddle, Henry Jones can post the upset in this year's Lexington Stakes.

Comfort ran on turf in his first two starts, finishing 4th in both, then moved to dirt for his 3rd start and won as he pleased by 4 lengths. Privately purchased off the win by a very sharp outfit (Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners), he gets North American Leading Jockey Castellano and should run even better in his 2nd dirt route, for the barn of North American leading trainer Pletcher, so although not likely to go to post at as high odds as Henry Jones, he could be a strong factor to the wire.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Aqueduct

RACE #8 - AQUEDUCT - 4:41 PM EASTERN POST

The Top Flight Handicap

9.0 FURLONGS DIRT GRADE III FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD STAKES $200,000.00 PURSE

#2 HOUSE RULES
#1 AMULAY
#4 GOT LUCKY
#8 BEFORE YOU KNOW IT

Well folks ... The Top Flight Handicap is named for the fine filly who carried the silks of C. V. Whitney in 1931 and 1932. Top Flight won 12 of 16 career starts for earnings of $275,900, and was never beaten by a member of her own gender. As a 2-year-old, Top Flight was unbeaten in seven starts, all of them stakes, and beat colts in the Futurity at Belmont Park, the Saratoga Special, and Pimlico Futurity. Here in the 75th running of this stakes test, #2 HOUSE RULES takes a class drop (-6) to enter this grades stakes field, and has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in four of her last five outings, including a trio of "POWER RUN WINS" being embedded in this recent streak of racing consistency. The 8-1 shot, #1 AMULAY, is the pace profile leader in this field racing at, or about, 9.0 furlongs on the dirt, and has won an impressive 5 of 6 starts in her career to date racing at this distance, including a "POWER RUN WIN" in her last start. Jockey Jose Ortiz and Trainer Bruce Levine send her to the post for the "Saturday Feature" ... they've "whacked the tote board with 52% of their entries saddled as a team to date.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

At the Gate - Saturday
By Mike Dempsey

It is last call for Kentucky Derby hopefuls, with the last major Derby points race on tap at Oaklawn Park, the $1 million Arkansas Derby (G1).

The race is worth 100-40-20-10 points to the top four finishers, meaning the top pair would be assured a starting spot in the gate on the first Saturday of May.

American Pharoah is the 1-2 morning line favorite and already has stamped his ticket to Churchill Downs thanks to his win in the Rebel Stakes (G2) on March 14. The Bob Baffert trainee is currently the 4-1 betting favorite for the Kentucky Derby.

He faces a couple of talented runners in Far Right and Madefromlucky, but I just don’t see him losing on Saturday afternoon.

That would be good news for horses on or near the bubble to get into the Kentucky Derby field. Except for Far Right, who is sitting with 23 points which is good for 23rd in the points standings. The colt does not need to win, as a second or third would likely get him into the Derby field.

The colt is proven over the Oaklawn Park main track, having won the Smarty Jones and Southwest (G3). He is currently 28-1 in early Kentucky Derby betting.

The $250,000 Coolmore Lexington (G3) offers up 10-4-2-1 Derby points but that likely will not be enough for the winner to get into the field on the first Saturday of May.

Only two runners in the field have earned points toward entry into the Run for the Roses. Divining Rod has 10, and Tiznow R J has earned seven, but even picking up 10 more points for a win the Lexington will not be enough to crack the top 20.

The Lexington along with the $300,000 Jenny Wiley (G1) will be broadcast live as part of the Jockey Club Tour on Fox at 4:30 ET on Saturday on Fox Sports 1.

Here is today’s opening race from Keeneland to get the day off to a good start:

KEE Race 1 Clm $25,000 (12:35 ET)
4 Whatthecatdrugin 3-1
3 Out of Patience 3-1
6 Happy Fella 2-1
1 Dad Are We Here 5-2

Analysis: Whatthecatdrugin returns off a two month break and makes his first start for the Lovell barn that is 24% winners (with a +ROI) first off the claim. The gelding is coming off a game second last out against $10,000 starter optional claimers. The gelding has won 15 times in just 46 career starts and owns a solid pace profile throughout. He looks as if he fits here tagged for $25,000.

Out of Patience checked in fifth last out against $25,000 starter optional claimers on the grass at Fair Grounds. The colt was claimed for the third time in a row, today going for the Glyshaw barn that is 14% winners first off the claim. Two of his three wins have come on turf but he does have a win and a second in three trips over a fast dirt surface.

Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 3,4 / 3,4,6
TRI: no play

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:

AQU Race 8 The Top Flight Hcp G3 (4:57 ET)
3 Joint Return 8-1
2 House Rules 6-5
4 Got Lucky 4-1
6 Shayjolie 12-1

Analysis: Joint Return makes her first start since last September for the Servis barn that is 3 for his last 12 (25% with a +ROI) with runners coming back off a +180 day layoff. The filly won 4 of 9 last year with a couple of seconds and ran a game second in the Alabama (G1) at the Spa. She can handle the distance and should be tight off works at Palm Meadows and then a one-mile morning drill at Philly.

House Rules was bumped coming out of the gate, stalked the early pace and could not get to Sheer Drama who opened up a clear lead heading for home in the Royal Delta (G2). Two back going a one turn mile the filly won the Rampart (G3) and earned a career top speed fig in that outing. She has a win at nine furlongs and missed winning the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2) last year at nine furlongs in a photo.

Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 5-1 or better.
EX: 2,3 / 2,3,4,6
TRI: 2,3 / 2,3,4,6 / 1,2,3,4,6

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Keeneland:

KEE Race 10 The Coolmore Lexington G3 (5:18 ET)
2 Comfort 5-1
1 Divining Rod 3-1
4 Tiznow R J 5-1
6 Fame and Power 5-2

Analysis: Comfort returns off a two-month break and makes his first start for the Todd Pletcher barn, the connections purchasing this colt privately after his maiden score at Fair Grounds in his first start on dirt. The colt raced on grass in his first two career outings, a couple of fourth place finishes. Pletcher is 24% winners with newcomers to the barn and this colt still appears to have plenty of upside. He should get a good trip sitting off what could be a lively early pace.

Divining Rod was beaten just a neck two back in the Sam F. Davis (G3), five lengths clear of the rest of the field. The colt regressed last out in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) where he dueled for the early lead and weakened in the stretch to finish third. The winner Carpe Diem came back to win the Toyota Blue Grass (G1) in his next start last Saturday at Keeneland. The main concern is that there is plenty of early speed in here and his price may end up on the light side.

Tiznow R J ran a decent third in the LeComte (G3) in his stakes debut but was not able to run back to that effort in his last two starts, a seventh in the Risen Star (G2) and a distant fourth in the Sunland Derby (G3). He faces a bit easier group here.

Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 1,2 / 1,2,4,6
TRI: 1,2 / 1,2,4,6 / 1,2,4,6,7

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Oaklawn Park:

OP Race 7 The Oaklawn Hcp G2 (3:56 CT)
3 Tapiture 9-2
1 Race Day 5-2
7 Hard Aces 6-1
5 Golden Lad 7-2

Analysis: Tapiture did not fire last out in the razorback (G3) where he was beaten 10 1/4 lengths by our second choice, but the effort was his first go off a 4 1/2 month break and he caught an off track. The Asmussen trainee is better than that and expecting to see this guy bounce back with a much better effort here. The barn is 23% winners with runners making the second start off a 45-180 day layoff. He landed in the exacta in 6 of 8 trips last year and ended his season with three straight triple digit Beyers.

Race Day was a game winner of the Razorback over Midnight Hawk by a neck for his first stakes win. He makes his third start of his current form cycle and is the logical one to beat here for Pletcher. The main knock is going to be the price, which may dip below his 5-2 morning line.

Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 1,3 / 1,3,5,7
TRI: 1,3 / 1,3,5,7 / 1,3,4,5,7

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Keeneland
R4: #6 Radiator 15-1
R7: #7 Believe in Charlie 15-1
R7: #1 Richies Party Girl 8-1
R8: #1 Seagrass 10-1
R9: #1 Personal Diary 10-1
R11: #4 Indebted 8-1

Good luck today!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Arkansas Derby Preview
By Anthony Stabile

Welcome to “Anthony’s Eleven,” your source for anything and everything leading up to Kentucky Derby 141 on May 2nd at historic Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. In the coming weeks, Anthony Stabile, best known for picking 2003 Kentucky Derby winner Funny Cide at odds of over 12-1, will break down the top contenders for this years Run for the Roses, culminating on Friday, May 1st with an extensive analysis of every runner that steps into the gate for the most exciting two minutes in sports.

Anthony's Eleven

Rank Horse Jockey Trainer Next Race Derby Points

1 Mubtaahij Christopher Soumillon Mike de Kock Kentucky Derby (5/2 at CD) 100

2 Frosted Joel Rosario Kiaran McLaughlin Kentucky Derby (5/2 at CD) 113

3 Far Right Mike Smith Ron Moquett Arkansas Derby (4/11 at OP) 22

4 Dortmund Martin Garcia Bob Baffert Kentucky Derby (5/2 at CD) 170

5 International Star Miguel Mena Mike Maker Kentucky Derby (5/2 at CD) 171

6 Carpe Diem John Velazquez Todd Pletcher Kentucky Derby (5/2 at CD) 164

7 Firing Line Gary Stevens Simon Callaghan Kentucky Derby (5/2 at CD) 58

8 Upstart Jose Ortz Rick Violette, Jr. Kentucky Derby (5/2 at CD) 76

9 El Kabeir Undecided John Terranova, III Kentucky Derby (5/2 at CD) 95

10 War Story Joe Talamo Tom Amoss Kentucky Derby (5/2 at CD) 44

11 Frammento Undecided Nick Zito Kentucky Derby (5/2 at CD) 20


The G1 Arkansas Derby going 1 1/8 miles on the dirt, the last button on Murphy’s coat when it comes to the 100 point Kentucky Derby prep races, highlights the action this Saturday down at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Arkansas. American Pharoah has been installed as the prohibitive 1-2 morning line favorite in the field of 8 and could stamp himself the favorite for the Run for the Roses with a victory.

Trained by Bob Baffert, American Pharoah won two of his three starts as a juvenile, including the G1 Del Mar Futurity and G1 Front Runner, which was good enough to name him the Eclipse Award winner as champion Two-Year-Old.

This year, American Pharoah has raced just once, taking the G2 Rebel over a sloppy Oaklawn surface in gate-to-wire fashion by 6 ¼ lengths under regular rider Victor Espinoza, his first start in over five months.

American Pharoah, who’ll break from post 6, has actually led every step of the way in all three of his scores but there is speculation that he will be taken off the pace in an attempt to rate, thus making him a more powerful threat in Louisville. That speculation was further fueled when his owner, Zayat Stables, entered the speedy Mr. Z in here.

From the barn of D. Wayne Lukas, Mr. Z has danced nearly every dance since breaking his maiden in his late June debut at Churchill Downs. He’s hit the board in seven of those ten starts but hasn’t had his picture taken since. Last out, he stalked the early pace in the G2 Louisiana Derby but faltered terribly through the stretch and was beaten over 20 lengths. He’ll put the blinkers back on for this and will have Ramon Vazquez in the saddle from post 2.

Perhaps American Pharoah’s biggest challenge will come from the G3 Southwest winner, Far Right. Trained by Ron Moquett, Far Right started his career with five races around one turn, met with mixed results, before finishing a troubled trip/terrible ride third in the G3 Delta Jackpot last November.

Moquett switched riders to Mike Smith for his first start of the season, the Smarty Jones, and Smith rewarded the conditioner with a flawless ride that resulted in a 1 ¾ length tally. Smith gave Far Right an even better ride in the Southwest, weaving through traffic and diving to the inside to get up by ¾ of a length in the final stages. Far Right will break from post 7.

Madefromlucky will try the champ again after a runner-up finish in the Rebel for Todd Pletcher and John Velazquez. Madefromlucky when his two prior starts at Gulfstream and didn’t appear, to me anyway, to like the wet track last out. He’ll get a dry track here and will break from post 4.

Trainer Ken McPeek will add blinkers to his charge, The Truth Or Else as he makes his third start off of a three month layoff from the rail with Calvin Borel. The Truth Or Else made a prolonged bid to the lead before getting rundown late in the Southwest then flattened out when Borel asked him for Run in the rebel where he finished fourth.

Like Madefromlucky, I’m not too certain Bold Conquest liked the sloppy tracks he’s encountered in his last pair for Steve Asmussen. After a third place finish in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity last October at Keeneland, Bold Conquest returned with a fourth place finish in the Southwest then grabbed the show dough after encountering some trouble on the first turn in the Rebel. Ricardo Santana, Jr. rides from post 5.

Bridget’s Big Luvy added blinkers and led the Private Terms at Laurel every step of the way at this distance last out when trainer Jeremiah Englehart added blinkers. Both of his career wins have come on wet tracks while he is winless in a pair of fast track tries. Angel Cruz rides from post 3.

George Papaprodromou will saddle longshot maiden Win the Space, a California shipper with Kent Desormeaux in the saddle. He’ll shed blinkers while making his first start around two turns and against stakes company from post 8.

Finally, a quick note about the G3 Coolmore Lexington, going 1 1/16 miles on the main track, at Keeneland. Worth just 10 Derby points to the winner, it’s highly unlikely this race will have any impact on the Kentucky Derby, but recent maiden winner Donworth is one to keep an eye on. He overcame a tough trip to win going seven furlongs, one of the toughest things to do, in his unveiling and could be a Preakness or Belmont player for trainer Graham Motion. He faces just six others with Joel Rosario aboard.

Prep Play of the Day

Got split in the Santa Anita Derby but hit Frosted in the Wood Memorial to get even Steven last Saturday. In the Arkansas Derby, let’s try to beat American Pharoah. Make a $1 trifecta part-wheel using Far Right over The Truth Or Else, Madefromlucky, Bold Conquest and American Pharoah over all of the horses. Total cost is $24. Good luck!!!!

Bankroll: $0

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Balmoral: Saturday 4/11 Analysis
By Jeremey Day

DRF HARNESS

Race 9 - $15,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet (13 - 19 / $48.20): TIME OUTA JAIL (7th)

Spot Play: KOSTAS WINE (6th)


Race 1

(5) IF I DIDNT DREAM set a lifetime mark last out and appears to be gaining confidence. (4) MIRIAM'S JET pacing mare is one of few threats in the race and could use a smooth trip. (2) MYKINDAPRINCESS took a few weeks off and has been inconsistent; command a price.

Race 2

(3) LAWMAN STAR gelding looks to have a lot of ability and just needs to stay trotting for a big chance. (6) PAROLE OFFICER owns a decent burst of speed and should offer some value. (7) A LOCAL BAND five-year-old trotter has been competitive against much better but rarely wins.

Race 3

(5) WILDCAT BOBBY pacer is sharp and will look to make it two straight. (1) CRIME OF PASSION drops back in for a tag off two big efforts; threat. (2) FOX VALLEY ANDY couldn't have asked for a better trip last out against the same competition; use underneath.

Race 4

(5) MONOPOLY MAN gelding should offer a nice price with the driver opting elsewhere. The pacer could get a fast pace to close into; fires late. (6) BET ON HIM couldn't win off an ideal trip and looks to offer low value; command a price. (2) CD'S IDEAL gets a good post but needs to avoid an early speed battle for his best chance.

Race 5

(5) SKYWAY BILLY looked to snap out of a funk last out closing with a furious rally last out. (6) WHY ASK WHY pacer has upside and finds a wide open race. (7) DAKOTA ROADSTER has been driven very hard as of late and could try from off the pace this week before some upcoming stake races.

Race 6

(5) KOSTAS WINE went from awesome to empty last out but looks to just now be back in racing shape. (3) LEGAL TRANSFER the pacer was loaded with pace late after the driver elected to sit in. (2) SOUTHWIND SCORPION should be in line for a ground saving trip; use underneath.

Race 7

(8) TIME OUTA JAIL nice looking trotter gets sent out first start in a new barn and has tons of room to move forward in his second start back off a layoff. (6) TROTTIN ON OVER five-year-old has a chance to upset if minds his manners. (5) SHEER ACTION gets sent out for proven connections against much weaker competition.

Race 8

(4) SEEYOUATTHEFINISH mare will look make it three straight up in class and is versatile. (3) STATE STREET LIZ mare was either rank last out or given a very poor drive. The five-year-old can compete with this bunch and owns a ton of gate speed. (7) OUR MISS LILY has been off three weeks but was sharp in her last few; threat.

Race 9

(4) IAM BONASERA gelding can flat out smoke home and just needs some pace to close into. (6) FORT SILKY should be blasting off the gate for position and will be tough to catch with a soft middle half. (5) CAM B ZIPPER could push the early pace and has been on fire against weaker.

Race 10

(1) BIG BRAD was the driver's choice of three and takes a significant drop in class. (8) RICKY BOBBIE picks up a top driver but needs a good setup. (4) RHOMBUS could need a start coming off a short layoff but is the fastest horse in the race when ready.

Race 11

(3) OFFICIALLY YOURS lightly raced pacer has been very good in his last two. (6) SUBMIT U was the driver's choice and gets sent out for capable connections. (5) RED HOT ART sophomore pacer has made breaks in four of his last six starts but owns a wicked burst of speed. If he stays pacing he likely wins.

Race 12

In one of the best betting races on the card (6) SOUTHERN GIRL filly will look to make it three straight and should offer a better price in this race. (4) GALLEY WENCH filly was the driver's choice of two contenders and was absolutely flying late last start at this track. (5) LEX filly was second best of the bunch last year and gets sent out for a trainer known for having them ready when they hit the track.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mohawk: Saturday 4/11 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF HARNESS

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

EARLY $1 PICK 4:

1,3,4,5,6/3,4,5/2,3,4,6/3 = $60


LATE $1 PICK 4: 5,6,7/2,3/1,6/1,3,6,9 = $48

MEET STATS: 0 - 0 / $0.00

Best Bet: DRIVINGTHEDRAGON N (3rd)

Spot Play: SI SEMALU (8th)


Race 1

(2) WILD AND CRAZY GUY has two impressive wins in his last four races and two breaks in the other two starts. He looks great here if he can stay flat which is obviously not guaranteed; your call. (3) EXEMPLAR is another with both talent and gait issues. Tread lightly in the opener; too many question marks. (4) JAYPORT SUNRISE is one that at least appears sure-gaited and has good tactical speed. He's a good alternative to the top two.

Race 2

(5) BOURBON BAY has been nearly flawless in the past couple of months and looks solid here in the 2nd division of the 1st leg of the Don Mills with few contenders to worry about. The one that does look most dangerous is (1) SHEER FLEX, who raced against some tough ones at The Meadowlands and is certainly capable of turning the tables. (2) SEAWIND PASCALE looks most likely of the balance to complete the triactor.

Race 3

(6) DRIVINGTHEDRAGON N makes her North American debut for trainer Auciello who also owns. Based on her record and late speed in the qualifier she looks formidable but also may be overbet. (2) DIANNA SANTANNA has hit her best stride and took a good mark here at Mohawk last year; top contender. (3) MYSTIQUE could be used on the bottom of the tickets.

Race 4

(5) RAMBLINGAMBLINMAN may get the best trip in a very contentious dash to start the pick 4. This looks like the leg to spread deep. (4) EVENIN OF PLEASURE is a Mohawk specialist and had a perfect tightener at Woodbine; beware. (1) PISTON BROKE took the winter off and looks ready to roll in company that he fits. He may still need a race, however.

Race 5

(3) BROADWAY PRINCE steps up off a powerful win but the trainer hands the reins to Zeron; top call. (4) SOUTHWIND WARSAW moves into Moreau's barn and is a must-use on pick 4 tickets on that factor alone. (5) RECKON IM READY dropped, popped and was claimed now debuts for Puddy who has been warming up a bit lately; using.

Race 6

(4) TEAM CAPTAIN hasn't lived up to the promise of his breeding yet, but he has also been patiently handled. The price inflates tonight and he may fall into a great trip chasing some battlers in this stakes final. (2) LEGION OF BOOM has been very impressive all year and looks like the one to beat. (3) PANTHEON HANOVER went a big trip two back then was kept in with pace last week. He could upset here at a monster price.

Race 7

(3) SLIP INTO GLIDE is peaking to the point where he has almost hit last year's dominant form; top call here. (2) WATKINS drops from the Preferred after missing a week and is the one to overhaul. (1) ZEUS LIGHTNING had a decent comeback race. Notice the 18 slices in 42 tries last season.

Race 8

(5) SI SEMALU comes back fast off a good mile at London Tuesday where he was compromised by interference while the winner was getting away. He is good enough to beat these and thrived here last summer; top call. (6) REGAL SON raced well from the 12-hole last week and was a good third off the shelf. He's a top contender but will also take a ton of cash at the windows. (7) LETS ROCK TOGETHER was an easy winner in his debut for Menary. He fits well despite the slight class raise.

Race 9

(2) APPRENTICE HANOVER fired off a huge last 1/4 to just miss last week and has always liked Mohawk. He'll be tough here. (3) SPINFINITI continues to impress and McNair drives him with great confidence. He'll be a better price tonight and merits Pick 4 inclusion. (7) NICKLE BAG has been sharp all year and has already surpassed $100K in earnings. Look for him to launch off cover here.

Race 10

(6) ARTISTIC MADISON has been a win machine in the NW3 class. This slight step up shouldn't discourage her; top call. (1) KISS ME NOT went a big first-over trip last week en route to victory. She is the main danger. (2) RUSSIAN KISSES has been very consistent out of town for a long time and now gets the acid test.

Race 11

(1) COUGAR HALL drops and moves inside. He should be formidable here. (6) MODERN EXHIBIT stayed in last week but had pace late; he is sharp and could upset. (9) JOSHUA MY BOY got hung out to dry in the 12-horse field last week. He can be far more dangerous here if Henry launches him off the gate. (3) BOOMBOOM BALLYKEEL has always done well here and comes in with a good enough qualifier to suggest he could threaten immediately. (4) FOREVER JUST won well at a lower class but is more likely for a minor share.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Meadowlands: Saturday 4/11 Analysis
By Derick Giwner

DRF HARNESS

Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 3 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Race 7 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

MEET STATS: 149 - 571 / $796.90 BEST BETS: 19 - 47 / $70.70

Best Bet: SASSY HANOVER (10th)

Spot Play: MURDER HE WROTE (4th)


Race 1

(7) MAJOR IN LIFE hasn't really done anything wrong in his career and picked up some confidence against weak competition at Freehold. His qualifier was solid and this field looks to be full of question marks. (6) ARI'S TURN flashed some ability a couple of years ago at 2, but has only made one start since then. The qualifier was good enough to roll the dice. (2) ROCK OF THE AGES gets Miller back in the bike.

Race 2

(1) ART HISTORY closed nicely in his first start since October for a barn that has been firing all meet. There is no reason he can't turn the tables on (4) MY NAME IS SAM from a likely pocket trip. The latter has won nearly 50% of his starts but is far from a lock. (6) GOKUDO HANOVER has a shot if things go his way.

Race 3

(1) CHUCARO ACERO BC hasn't exactly looked great since coming to the U.S., but seems to have found a great spot from the cones and could wake up. (5) ROCK ON THE HILL has come back with a pair of decent qualifiers and showed plenty of ability as a freshman pacer. My only concern is that he might be pointing for stakes races down the road. (4) MIDNIGHT LIGHTNING has been very consistent but can't seem to get over the top; using underneath.

Race 4

(5) MURDER HE WROTE set a quick pace and almost went wire to wire in just his second start since September. I'm staying with him. (7) URBANITE HANOVER is back down in class and a big threat to win despite Miller choosing my top choice. (1) GOOD DAY MATE is clearly sharp now. (8) BREAKIN THE LAW has a string of good efforts on his resume but wins have been tough to come by.

Race 5

(6) COBALT MAN picked up his game in his first start for trainer Mark Capone. Driver change to the hot Marohn should help. (1) SPENDER HANOVER was used early and packed it in last time. This guy is better suited for an easy trip. (2) DIAMOND SAID drops back down to the proper level, but maybe he is a different horse when not in the Gill barn.

Race 6

(1) PANCHESTER UNITED gets away from the sharpest horse on the grounds and has an inside post to work with. (8) THAT'S MY OPINION won despite a two month layoff and may finally be ready to live up to his $350k price tag. (2) SMART ROKKER only needs smooth sailing to get a big piece. (3) ROCK OUT has high speed.

Race 7

(4) WINDSONG GORGEOUS paces out of his skin when in the Morgan barn. Some might shy away because Brett Miller chose off and Vincent Ginsburg is driving, but I'll take the better price and roll with it. (9) DAPPER DUDE gets some serious class relief but doesn't exactly find an easy spot. Classy veteran is capable. (5) ODDS ON EQUULEUS sprinted away from the field in his qualifier. We all know this guy has talent. (1) MISTER VIRGIN comes off a strong score but faces tougher.

Race 8

(4) MAMBO ITALIANO hasn't racked up wins this year but has been a steady performer week after week. Now he moves into a new stable that has done well in 2015; interesting. (7) DULL ROAR was a solid second against this company last time and has a history of putting up big miles at times. This guy has a serious chance at a decent price. (9) JJ SHARK would be the prohibitive favorite from an inside post. From this spot he is just another one of many contenders. (1) MIGHTY YOUNG JOE is certainly capable but not as reliable as last year.

Race 9

(3) STORMIN RUSTLER had no shot last time and can be forgiven for not firing after a long layoff. This guy has proven he can win here and the rest of this group leaves plenty to be desired. (1) ROCKROCKWHOSTHERE has speed from the inside in a bad field, but is winless since 2013. (5) GETONTHEWAY rallied nicely last week.

Race 10

(10) SASSY HANOVER is in a great spot and should gun off the gate and head down the road. (4) GALLANT SEELSTER hasn't been racing that badly lately. Maybe we'll see some early zip tonight? (9) RELENTLESS DREAMER typically wakes up in spots like this one, but he doesn't own much early speed and could have too many to pass.

Race 11

(3) MOONLIGHT RANSOM drops down and figures to wire this field. (6) FOUR STARZZZ Z also gets class relief but lacks the top one's form. (5) ARTISTS RALLY was in a tough spot last time. He can compete in here.

Race 12

(6) STEVENSVILLE may not be ready to face a field of this quality, but his qualifier was just so good I can't resists taking a shot. (5) FOOL ME ONCE raced well off the bench and can build on that mile. (1) DOVUTO HANOVER has plenty of class and can't be faulted for not keeping up in his qualifier with the trainer in the bike.

Race 13

(5) SHOCK N ROCK has plenty of early speed and could get away from this field. (6) GRATIAS DEO scored at first asking for a barn that is hitting at 50% here, but Callahan chose the top choice. (9) HURRIKANE JON PAUL raced okay from the outside after nearly a year on the shelf. (8) TRIPLE MAJOR is hard to love on the win end at 1 for his last 45, but he should get a piece of the pie.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Saturday 4/11 Analysis
By Matt Rose

DRF HARNESS

MEET STATS: 106 - 333 / $564.70 BEST BETS: 13 - 26 / $46.10

Best Bet: MICHAEL’S POWER (6th)

Spot Play: GRANTOR HANOVER (1st)


Race 1

(6) GRANTOR HANOVER looked so impressive blitzing lesser from the eight hole off the Brainard claim that he's worth following on the rise in class. (1) PANONGAHELA looked primed for more last out, paced home steadily but was outfinished. He's worth using from the rail spot. (4) SIR ZIGGY'S Z TAM drops in class, looks to have a chance and will likely take the 'Lachance money'.

Race 2

(2) LIFE UP FRONT was shuffled back last week in a tough-luck try. Prior race at this level was a winning effort. (1) ROCK ON MOE was taken back at the start last week, his first start of the season. That was a needed tightener and he should be better tonight. (3) BLADE SEELSTER has blast-out speed and usually offers a price.

Race 3

(4) CAPITAL ACCOUNT was clearly overmatched in the Levy series, through he did manage to pick up a small check in round one; four-year-old should find these more to his liking. (5) BIGRISK drops back to a competitive level and gets post relief. (1) LETTUCEROCKU A saved ground and beat a slightly softer group last out; veteran should land a share from this inside post.

Race 4

(2) BIG N BAD didn't do much in the Levy but he wasn't exactly awful; efforts prior to the Stakes races were stellar. (3) HALL BRO makes his third start off the bench for Burke and I would expect him to show more. (7) FLIPPER J won't be winning from out there but he can rally late at a price.

Race 5

(6) WARRAWEE NEEDY was in very tough spots in his last two and was unable to perform at his best. Veteran is outside again but he should be able to fire to the front. (2) MACH IT SO sat and didn't fire in a quick mile last week; he's better than that. (4) BETTOR'S EDGE really disappointed last week after rating a comfortable pace.

Race 6

(2) TAKE IT BACK TERRY did trip out last week but he was very good at the same time; Burke trainee is capable of repeating. (6) SAPPHIRE CITY looks like his old self again and Dube should blast from the gate. (1) TEXICAN N has quietly made some good money in the series and he should pick up another nice share from this spot.

Race 7

(1) MICHAEL'S POWER has been rock-solid in his Levy attempts, including a nice off-the-pace effort last week. Gelding looms the one to beat from this spot. (4) LUCAN HANOVER was aggressively handled early last out and was collared by P H Supercam; Harris trainee looks second best again. (2) NATIONAL DEBT has been okay so far and rallied well last week.

Race 8

(7) DW'S NY YANK could not have had it any easier in last week's abbreviated field; Burke trainee will head to the front again and can make it three straight. (8) NOT AFRAID lands outside of the top choice again which will make things difficult. (6) BACKSTREET HANOVER has been racing well in her last few; she may be too far back to threaten for the top spot but can spice up the bottom of the ticket.

Race 9

(3) CASIMIR JITTERBUG was a sharp pocket-sitting winner last out and he can certainly repeat. (5) ONE THROUGH TEN has hit the board in all recent attempts and his good early speed will put him into play. (4) THE REAL ONE was sharp for Lachance right off the layoff.

Race 10

(4) OFF LIKA PROMDRESS steps up to face tougher but he's been sharp, was Buter's choice and could offer a nice price. (3) DAVID'S DREAM probably has more ability than he's been showing. (1) DREAM OUT LOUD N hasn't looked particularly great since returning this year but he does have loads of back class.

Race 11

(1) RU READY TO ROCK was used a bit early before taking back and wasn't heard from again. From the rail spot tonight the Godinez trainee gets a weak call. (4) HERE WE GO AGAIN paced a big third quarter last week but was nailed by the rival he towed into the race. (2) IN COMMANDO steps up off a sharp trip-sitting win.

Race 12

(1) SMOOTH CRIMINAL dropped out of the Levy and jogged versus one notch lesser; call to repeat from this spot. (2) MAINLAND KEY N also steps up off a victory and he's fortunate again with the post draw; oldtimer should be close up throughout. (4) THE LUNCH PAIL took too much money last out and wilted when driven to the lead; that's not his style and he will revert to closing tactics tonight.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Saturday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Aqueduct (5th) Native Hero, 7-2
(6th) Mr. Masterpiece, 5-1

Charles Town (2nd) Haley's Lil Dixie, 3-1
(3rd) Claudio, 9-2

Evangeline Downs (3rd) Total Posse, 3-1
(6th) Tribute's Passion, 6-1

Golden Gate Fields (8th) Milady Maid, 3-1
(9th) Dr Williams, 9-2


Gulfstream Park (4th) Expected Meeting, 5-1
(6th) Gato Macho, 7-2


Hawthorne (3rd) Rosie My Rosie, 3-1
(9th) Papa Smitty, 7-2


Keeneland (1st) Whatthecatdrugin, 3-1
(8th) Sharp Humor, 9-2


Lone Star Park (2nd) Just the Tap, 7-2
(6th) Anew Rumor, 4-1


Mahoning Valley (3rd) Richard's Tune, 3-1
(4th) Tiburon Latino, 4-1


Mountaineer (5th) Bare Witness, 3-1
(6th) Rephrase, 7-2


Oaklawn Park (5th) Sharm, 5-1
(6th) Lasting Impact, 9-2


Parx Racing (3rd) Awakino Cat, 9-2
(5th) Glass Zealing, 7-2


Penn National (2nd) Proud Trick, 4-1
(4th) Alabame, 3-1


Pimlico (3rd) It's a Place, 6-1
(7th) Liam's Song, 7-2


Santa Anita (6th) Sam Slick, 4-1
(9th) Hit a Homerun, 7-2


Tampa Bay Downs (2nd) Catire Bello, 3-1
(7th) Bird Tap, 3-1


Woodbine (8th) Jacks Escarpment, 8-1
(10th) French Quarter, 4-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA Preview: Grizzlies (54-25) at Clippers (53-26)

Date: April 11, 2015 10:00 PM EDT

Four weeks ago, the Memphis Grizzlies probably weren't banking on the Los Angeles Clippers being one of the teams chasing them for the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference.

What once seemed like a three-team race has expanded to five in the closing weeks of the season, and Saturday night's matchup at Staples Center figures to be a defining game in the West's almost entirely up for grabs playoff structure.

"It's crazy," Blake Griffin told the team's official website. "I've had some tight races down the stretch, but never like this. There are so many different scenarios. That's the crazy part. It just goes back to the old 'We can only control what we can control.' That's how we play and how we approach these next three games. That's our focus."

After games on March 16, the Clippers (53-26) along with San Antonio were five games back of Memphis. Since, Los Angeles has gone an NBA-best 11-1, while San Antonio has followed at 13-2.

After the Grizzlies' 89-88 win in Utah on Friday and the Spurs' win in Houston, Memphis (54-25) is a half game up on the Spurs in the Southwest Division and for the No. 2 seed while the Clippers and Rockets are a game off the Grizzlies' pace in a tie for the fifth seed. Portland is in fourth as Northwest champion, though it is 2 1/2 games behind Memphis. Even if Los Angeles falls short of the second or third seed, holding off the Rockets for the fifth is important because it'd likely earn home-court advantage over the Trail Blazers.

The Clippers' 105-100 win over the Lakers on Tuesday was their fourth straight, including consecutive victories over their Staples Center roommates, though Portland has been the only .500 team in that stretch. In fact, only three of the 11 recent wins have come against winning teams. After Memphis, they close at home against Denver and in Phoenix, so this'll be their final test against a playoff team in an extended string against favorable competition.

Even so, there's no denying the offense has been impressive. Los Angeles has averaged 111.2 points, shot 49.6 percent and 41.4 percent in the last 12 games with a 114.4 points per 100 possessions. In that time, the Clippers trail the league lead in 3-point shooting by a fraction of a percent and lead in the other three categories.

J.J. Redick had 27 points against the Lakers and over the 12-game stretch is averaging 21.8 while shooting 54.9 percent and 50.6 from 3-point range. Nearly all of that has come with Jamal Crawford sidelined, but the sixth man returned against the Lakers after missing 17 game with a calf injury.

"I enjoy playing with Jamal," Redick said. "Playing alongside him definitely gives us more versatility and another scoring option and really for our bench I think it'll be a big boost."

Memphis, meanwhile, finishes the season at Los Angeles and Golden State before hosting Indiana. After Friday, it has won four of five while limiting opponents to 85.8 points following a three-game losing streak. The franchise has never won a division title, though it has finished in the top three the past four seasons.

"These last three for us are important," Grizzlies forward Zach Randolph said. "We are getting (playoff ready). We just have got to keep playing and focus on ourselves and focus on playing better."

Memphis has won four of six in the series, including two of three this season, which could also play into the seeding. Another Memphis win would clinch the tiebreaker over Los Angeles, while a Clippers win would push the tiebreaker down to results against the West.

Mike Conley has been limited to 9.5 points on 32.4 percent shooting in the last four meetings. Conley missed Friday's game due to a foot injury, and Tony Allen missed a sixth straight game because of a strained hamstring.