Florida & Louisiana Derby Tips
By Anthony Stabile
Anthony's Eleven
Welcome to “Anthony’s Eleven,” your source for anything and everything leading up to Kentucky Derby 141 on May 2nd at historic Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. In the coming weeks, Anthony Stabile, best known for picking 2003 Kentucky Derby winner Funny Cide at odds of over 12-1, will break down the top contenders for this years Run for the Roses, culminating on Friday, May 1st with an extensive analysis of every runner that steps into the gate for the most exciting two minutes in sports. On both May 1st and May 2nd, Kentucky Oaks and Derby Day, you’ll be able to purchase Stabile’s Pick Packs, full of selections and plays for two of racings’ most exciting days of the year.
Anthony's Eleven (3/27/15)
Rank Horse Jockey Trainer Next Race Derby Points
1 Far Right Mike Smith Ron Moquett Arkansas Derby (4/11 at OP) 22
2 Dortmund Martin Garcia Bob Baffert Santa Anita Derby (4/4 at SA) 70
3 War Story Joe Talamo Tom Amoss Louisiana Derby (3/28 at FG) 24
4 Frammento Gary Stevens Nick Zito Blue Grass (4/4 at KEE) 10
5 Upstart Jose Ortz Rick Violette, Jr. Florida Derby (3/28 at GP) 36
6 Firing Line Gary Stevens Simon Callaghan Kentucky Derby (5/2 at CD) 58
7 Dubai Sky Jose Lezcano Bill Mott Kentucky Derby (5/2 at CD) 50
8 Prospect Park Kent Desormeaux Clifford Sise, Jr. Santa Anita Derby (4/4 at SA) 20
9 International Star Miguel Mena Mike Maker Louisiana Derby (3/28 at FG) 71
10 Bolo Mike Smith Carla Gaines Santa Anita Derby (4/4 at SA) 10
11 Frosted Joel Rosario Kiaran McLaughlin Wood Memorial (4/4 at Aqu) 13
The final round of Kentucky Derby preps gets underway this Saturday with 100 points up for grabs at Gulfstream, the Fair Grounds and halfway across the world at Meydan in Dubai. We’ll focus on a pair of domestic derbies while giving the one in the desert a brief shout out to wrap things up.
Also, don’t forget that this weekend also features the final Kentucky Derby Future Wager of the season. I won’t be getting involved but that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t. Just remember, if you do, command value, especially at this late stage of the game.
The first stop on the trail this week is Florida, as a field of nine has taken shape for the G1 Florida Derby going 1 1/8 miles over the main track and it features a rematch of the one-two finishers from the G2 Fountain of Youth in February, Upstart and Itsaknockout.
Trained by Rick Violette, Jr., Upstart entered the gate that day as the 9-10 prohibitive favorite but sure didn’t run like one. In his usual position, just a few lengths off the pace, in the early going, jockey Jose Ortiz put Upstart under a ride approaching the far turn and initially made little headway. Once they straightened for home and one-time leader Frosted stopped inexplicably, Upstart battled his way to the top, crossed paths with Itsaknockout in deep stretch then edged away to a 2 ¾ length tally. He’ll break from outside post 9 with Ortiz.
Itsaknockout, one of two in here for Todd Pletcher, sat a similar trip, and like Upstart, didn’t look like a winner at any stage of the game but managed to take advantage of a poor stewards’ decision to disqualify the winner. It kept Itsaknockout’s perfect record intact as he’s won all three of his starts in some way, shape or form under Luis Saez, who’s back aboard from post 4.
Pletcher’s other charge, Materiality, will look to become the first sophomore to win the Derby without a race as a two-year-old since Apollo did it back in 1882. After breaking his maiden over a sloppy track going six furlongs in his January debut, Materiality returned from a seven week break to win the Islamorada, a minor stakes going this distance, by almost a half-dozen lengths. Regular rider John Velazquez rides from post 7.
Ami’s Flatter finished a well beaten second behind Carpe Diem in the G2 Tampa Bay Derby last out, his first start with both blinkers and Lasix. Winless in three starts since breaking his maiden over the Polytrack at Woodbine in his lone juvenile try, Ami’s Flatter did finish second in his only start over this course when he was second in the Mucho Macho Man at the start of the year. Trainer Josie Carroll makes a big jockey change to leading rider Javier Castellano. They’ll break from the rail.
Trainer Dale Romans sends out the longshot pair of Jack Tripp and Indianaughty from posts 2 and 3, respectively. Jack Tripp will run for the gelding for the first time while making his stakes debut having won just one of seven starts to date. Irad Ortiz Jr. replaces Corey Lanerie in the saddle. Lanerie will stick with Indianaughty, a winner two starts back on turf in his U.S. debut. Last out he shipped to Golden Gate where he was ninth of ten in the G3 El Camino Real Derby over a synthetic track. This will be his conventional dirt debut.
Nick Zito goes to the bench and runs Quimet in here as his Frammento, a late running third in the Fountain of Youth, awaits the G1 Blue Grass on 4/4 at Keeneland. Third in the Islamorada via DQ last out, Quimet’s lone victory in five starts came in a $50K maiden claimer back on New Year’s Day. Edgard Zayas rides from post 5.
My Point Exactly looks for his third straight for Bill Kaplan but will need to overcome an almost seven month layoff and switch back to dirt if he gets the hat trick. He broke his maiden over this course in August of last year before winning a minor turf stakes at Louisiana Downs in September when last seen. He’ll break from post 6 with Juan Leyva. Longshot Dekabrist hasn’t hit the board in any of his five starts this year for Gennadi Dorochenko and hasn’t hit the board in any. Jesus Rios rides from post 8.
Down in the bayou, International Star will look to sweep the three Fair Grounds preps for the Kentucky Derby with a victory in the G2 Louisiana Derby going 1 1/8 miles on the dirt for trainer Mike Maker.
After an up and down juvenile season in which he won two of six starts but was winless on conventional dirt, International Star opened some eyes when he overcame a bit of a precarious trip in the G3 LeComte to win by 2 ½ lengths before saving ground and coming up a narrow opening along the rail last out to win the G2 Risen Star by a length.
Stabled at Gulfstream, he’ll be taking his third van ride of the season and will break from outside post 9 with Miguel Mena, his rider in his last two starts.
War Story is no stranger to International Star and he’s finished second to him in his last two starts after winning the first two starts of his career. War Story actually made the lead in the LeComte before coughing it up late off a wide trip then suffered another wide trip in his latest. I’m a believer that their respective trips actually made the difference last time out. He’ll break from post 6 under new rider Joe Talamo for trainer Tom Amoss.
The well-traveled Mr. Z will be making the eleventh start of his career over his eighth different racetrack for trainer D. Wayne Lukas. Though he’s winless since his debut tally, he’s encountered nearly every top three-year-old and has suffered some heart-wrenching defeats, namely a nose defeat in the G3 Delta Jackpot, a head defeat to Dortmund in the G1 Los Alamitos Futurity and last out when he set the pace from his outside post before giving way grudgingly to finish third by ¾ of a length in the G3 Southwest. He’ll shed blinkers and breaks from post 2 with his seventh different rider, Kent Desormeaux.
Keen Ice made up a good deal of ground to finish third in the Risen Star last out for Romans when Jimmy Graham climbed aboard for the first time. This will be his third start off of a layoff and he’ll be looking for just his second win in seven starts. He’ll break from post 7.
St. Joe Bay, another eligible for an entry level allowance contest, shipped in from California to set the pace and finish fourth in the Risen Star where he was beaten a little less than three lengths. Trainer Peter Miller makes a rider change to Robby Albarado and they’ll break from post 8.
Stanford ships in from Gulfstream for Pletcher and has won half of his four starts. He returned from a sixth month layoff to win an allowance contest two back before getting disqualified from second and placed last of six when he veered out while going down the backstretch in the Islamorada last out. Florent Geroux rides from the rail.
Defondo broke his maiden two back for trainer Dallas Stewart at third asking in a sprint before just missing when stretching out in an allowance/optional claimer last out. Brian Hernandez has the return call from post 3.
Fusaichi Flame went gate-to-wire against just three others in a sloppy, off-the-turf affair in his latest for trainer Scott Geiner. Francisco Torres rides from post 4. A Day In Paradise, second to War Story two back, won a minor stakes at Sam Houston last out at 3-5. Kerwin Clark rides for Larry Jones from post 5.
Finally, out in Dubai, a field of 10 is set for the G2 UAE Derby going about 1 3/16 miles on the newly installed conventional dirt surface at Meydan. The Mike de Kock trained Mubtaahij has won three of his four dirt starts, including the Al Bastakiya going this distance in his latest. Maftool was third to that one two back before adding blinkers to defeat his rival in the G3 UAE 2000 Guineas in his latest for Saeed bin Suroor and Godolphin. My Johnny Be Good is the lone U.S. representative and comes off a last place finish in the Tampa Bay Derby for Eoin Harty.
Prep Play of the Day
Dubai Sky got us our first winner of the year, paying $16.80. Let’s keep it rolling this week. In the Florida Derby, make a $20 exacta Upstart over Materiality and a $5 saver reversing those two. Then in the Louisiana Derby, bet $25 to win on War Story and make a $10 exacta box using War Story and International Star. Total cost is $70. Good luck!!!!
Bankroll: Minus $15
