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Saturday's Elite 8 Tips
By Tony Mejia

West Region – Anaheim, CA – Honda Center

#1 Oregon (PK, 151) vs. #2 Oklahoma – 6:09 PM ET, CBS

The Ducks and Sooners have held up as the top seeds in the West, dominating games due to their ball movement and shot-making skills. Both are averaging over 80 points per game in this NCAA Tournament and have won comfortably, albeit a combined 3-3 against the spread. That may be one reason oddsmakers have placed pick’em status on this one, leaving it up to the betting public to decide whether they’re backing the least-respected No. 1 seed or a Buddy Hield-led squad that has been in the spotlight for the last few months. There’s no question both are playing well, but it wouldn’t necessarily be a surprise to see Oklahoma bet into a favorite position between now and tip-off.

On the floor, these are teams with similar strengths, but Oregon certainly has the size advantage. Center Chris Boucher is the nation’s second-leading shot-blocker and is a factor on the offensive end because he’s versatile enough to step out and knock down a jump shot. Dillon Brooks, who had his national coming-out party on Thursday night despite the fact he was First Team All-Pac-12, scored 25 points last round, the last three of which drew the ire of Duke’s Mike Krzyzewski. He’s incredibly mature for the college level, consistently hunting his shot but playing with a very composed demeanor. Elgin Cook, a versatile forward who scored 16 points and grabbed a team-high nine rebounds against the Blue Devils, can similarly beat you inside and out. 6-foot-9 sophomore Jordan Bell comes off the bench and adds even more depth.

The way Oklahoma can defeat the Ducks is to continue shooting the lights out the way they did against a Texas A&M team that typically stifles opponents but had no question for the arsenal surrounding Buddy Hield, who actually had a rough start in the round of 16, often seeing as many as three bodies around him. Hield ended up with 10 boards and 17 points, but it was Jordan Woodard who led five double-digit scorers in the win over the Aggies, scoring 22 and making five of his six 3-point shots. The Sooners shot 49.2 percent.

The Sooners shot 11-for-25 (44 pct) from beyond the arc and will undoubtedly shoot it with impunity here. Hield hit just two of his seven 3-point attempts. This is Oklahoma’s first Elite 8 appearance since 2009. Oregon, the 1939 NCAA Tournament champ (inaugural edition), hasn't been back to the Final Four since. They've won 10 consecutive games, winning the Pac-12's regular-season and tournament titles and setting a new record for single-season wins. Dana Altman is in the Elite Eight for the first time in his 26-season head coaching career. Counterpart Lon Kruger is here with his third team, having reached this stage with Kansas State and Florida. The Sooners are looking to get back to the Final Four for the first time in 14 seasons. The ‘under’ has prevailed in 11 of the last 13 Oklahoma games and has come through in Oregon’s last two games.


South Region – Louisville, KY – KFC Yum! Center

#1 Kansas (-2.5, 145.5) vs. #2 Villanova – 8:45 PM ET, CBS

The top teams in this region have been impressive in each of their victories in this NCAA Tournament, perhaps more than any other teams in this tournament. Combined, they’re 6-0 against the number. If the Wildcats hadn’t lost in the Big East Tournament final to Seton Hall, there’s little doubt that the earliest these teams would’ve met would’ve been a national semifinal, since ‘Nova would have earned a No. 1 seed if not for stumbling. Both teams were amazing on Thursday night. Villanova forced a bunch of turnovers, but it was its offense that opened eyes, as Miami could do nothing with them in a 92-69 loss that sounds even more impressive when you consider the Hurricanes were the No. 3 seed and looked more overmatched than they were in any ACC game besides a road loss at North Carolina.

Ryan Arcidiacono and Kris Jenkins each scored 21 points and the team as a whole shot 62.7 percent from the field. The Wildcats hit 10-of-15 3-pointers and were 18-for-19 at the free-throw line. They outrebounded Miami 27-17 and consistently beat the Hurricanes to loose balls, something that Kansas head coach Bill Self will undoubtedly point out when his team views film.

Fortunately, the Jayhawks hit the boards hard and came up big against Maryland as a result, winning that battle 43-28. Landan Lucas had 11 rebounds, while Perry Ellis scored 27 points to key the frontcourt effort. Lucas has seemingly been the key for Kansas during this 17-game winning streak. He doesn’t need the ball on the offensive end and dominates on the boards and on intangibles, setting screens and making himself a factor on the defensive end.

Guard play will be pivotal here, as both teams employ a two-point guard look. Villanova’s Arcidiacono and Jalen Brunson will tangle with Kansas’ Frank Mason and Devonte Graham, so expect ball-handling and 3-point shooting to be a key factor. The Wildcats have won 15 of 17 have seen the ‘over’ come in 10 of the last 12 times. The Jayhawks are 14-3 ATS over their last 17 and have seen the ‘under’ prevail in their last two outings. Villanova has only been an underdog in one game this season, losing to Virginia.
 
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NCAA Tournament

Saturday's games

Since 2003, #2-seeds are 11-5 SU vs #1-seeds in regional finals; dogs are 9-7 vs spread in those games. In Oregon's last 3 losses, opponents shot 26-43 (60.5%) behind arc- Oklahoma shoots 42.6% (#2) on arc (30-71 in NCAAs). Oregon won its last 11 games; their foes shoot 35.7% on arc (#237). Three of seven Ducks in rotation are seniors; Oklahoma has four kids who started 100+ games together. Neither team subs much. Since 1998, underdogs are 15-3 vs spread in West Region final. Big X teams are 6-4 vs Pac-12 this season; favorites are 7-2 vs spread in those games.

Bill Self is 2-3 in regional finals; he was favored in all five games; Kansas won last 17 games, beating Maryland by 16 Thursday- they're making 41.8% on arc (#4). Villanova foes shoot 33.9% on arc (#134); they lost to Oklahoma 78-55 on Pearl Harbor Dec 7, their only Big X game this year. Wildcats are 13-2 outside Big East; their closest game in this event has been 19 points- they crushed Iowa/Miami in last two. Since 2003, #2-seeds are 11-5 SU vs #1-seeds in regional finals; underdogs are 9-7 vs spread in those games. Big X teams are 2-1 vs Big East this season.


Other Tournaments

We'll do what we can with these minor tournaments; impossible to determine how interested players on these teams will be........

NIT
None

CBI
None

CIT
None
 
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'Elite Eight'

#1 Oregon and #2 Oklahoma will be battling for a spot in the Final Four when the teams meet in Anaheim on Saturday. Oregon is coming off of a very impressive victory on Thursday, defeating Duke 82-68 as 3.0-point favorite. Ducks lead by Dillon Brooks along with four other players in double digits shot 49.2% from the field, 43.5% from outside. Oregon's last trip to the Elite Eight in 2007 was not a pleasant one as Ducks walked off at the wrong end of an 85-77 decision vs. Florida.

Oklahoma advanced to the NCAA West Region final with a 77-63 victory over Aggies as 2.5 point favorite. Jordan Woodard (22), Buddy Hield (17) lead five players in double digits as Sooners knocked down 11 of 25 from 3-point range while shooting 49.2 percent from the field. This marks Oklahoma's third trip to the Elite Eight the past twelve NCAA Tournaments with Sooners getting upended 63-47 by Syracuse in 2003 followed by another defeat in 2009 as North Carolina ended Sooners dream with 72-60 victory.

A few betting nuggets to ponder when handicapping this contest. The Ducks are a money-making 8-2 ATS in their last ten NCAA Tournament games. Oklahoma has played in eight NCAA Tourney games since 2013 covering the spread just twice (2-6 ATS). Favorites have not been a good choice in the Elite Eight. The past three Torney's they're a cash draining 2-5-1 against the betting line, 13-27-1 ATS since 2003.
 
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Previews, Streaks, Tips, Notes

Villanova vs Kansas March 26, 2016

Kansas Jayhawks fresh off a 16 point win over Maryland its 17th consecutive victory (14-3 ATS) will be looking to continue that momentum when they take on Villanova Wildcats which recently clawed Miami 92-69. Jayhawks given the nod opening 2.5 point favorite have a slew of betting trends to overcome. Jayhawks have been money-burning choices in the Elite Eight (2-4 ATS) including 0-3 ATS as a top-seed. Additionally, Jayhawks have failed to cash in 3-of-4 encounters vs Wildcats.
 
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At the Gate - Saturday
By Mike Dempsey

It is a good day to be a horseplayer on Saturday, with the morning filled with $30 million in purses handed out in Dubai followed by a mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 at Gulfstream Park, a pool that could reach $10 million.

There is a $4,503,332.31 carryover going into Saturday, and we have big fields covering the six races of the sequence, making it a tricky wager to hit despite the .20 increment.

The carryover jackpot is only paid out when there is a single unique ticket sold with all six winners. On days when there is no unique ticket, 70% of that day’s pool goes back to those bettors holding tickets with the most winners, while 30% is carried over to the jackpot pool.

However, on mandatory payout days, the entire pool is paid out to those holding tickets with the most winners, and this what we have on Saturday.

I think it is a terrible wager except for mandatory payout days.

We get an early wakeup call as the first betting race on the Dubai World Cup card is 8:20am ET, with the $10 million Dubai World Cup set to go off at 1:00 ET.

The race drew five U.S. based contenders including the betting favorite California Chrome, who is the 3-2 morning line favorite. The colt ran second in the race last year but his 2015 campaign then got derailed by minor injuries and questionable decisions made by the connections.

By all accounts the colt has matured and appears to be coming into this year’s edition in top form. He has spent some time in Dubai and looked super winning his prep race over the Meydan main track.


Here is today’s opener from Gulfstream Park to get the day off to a good start:

GP Race 1 Clm $16,000 (12:35 ET)
#4 Lucky Kitten 8-5
#5 Battleback John 5-1
#1 Havermeyer Street 15-1
#3 Empower 9-2

Analysis: Lucky Kitten took the field gate to wire to won for this tag last out here. The gelding was claimed out of the race by the Maker barn that is 19% winners first off the claim. He comes right back for the same tag here and has won 6 of 15 in his career on turf. He catches a soft spot here.

Battleback John beat $16,000 non-winners of three here going nine furlongs two back and was claimed out of the race by the Tharrenos barn. Last out he tried $25,000 foes but was not a threat, fading to finish seventh. He drops back in for $16,000 here and looking for him to bounce back with a better effort against weaker.

Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 8-5 or better.
EX: 4,5 / 1,3,4,5
TRI: 4,5 / 1,3,4,5 / 1,3,4,5,7

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Gulfstream Park:

GP Race 11 The Sanibel Island Hcp (5:35 ET)
#6 Lira 2-1
#4 Harmonize 5-2
#9 Shake Down Baby 10-1
#11 Pulled the Goalie 12-1

Analysis: Lira tracked the early pace and could not get to the winner late in a runner up finish in the Herecomesthebride (G3) last out. The winner Catch a Glimpse won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) in her previous outing. Our top pick won the Ginger Brew two back here and won the Wait a While three back at Gulfstream Park West. She has moved forward in each of her starts and looks as if she still may have some upside.

Harmonize makes her first start since running seventh in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, beaten 3 3/4 lengths. She was 9-2 in the field of 14 and came into that race off a win in the Jessamine (G3) at Keeneland two back. The Mott barn is 12% winners with runners coming back off a 61-180-day layoff. She likely completes a rather chalky exacta here.

Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 4,6 / 4,6,9,11
TRI: 4,6 / 4,6,9,11 / 4,5,6,9,11

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Fair Grounds:

FG Race 10 The Louisiana Derby G2 (5:12 CT)
#7 Tom's Ready 15-1
#2 Greenpointcrusader 7-2
#6 Mo Tom 5-2
#8 Uncle Walter 20-1

Analysis: Tom's Ready raced four to five wide around the first turn, remained wide down the backstretch and again on the far turn, losing plenty of ground over a racing strip where the inside paths seemed best that day. This guy had the lead heading for home in the Lecomte (G3) two back but was run down by Mo Tom late. He is reunited with Hernandez who was aboard this guy three times including in his maiden score. The Dallas Stewart trainee is going to get overlooked on the tote here and we should catch a decent price.

Greenpointcrusader was bumped coming out of the gate, dueled for the early lead and was no match for Mohaymen late in a runner up finish in the Holy Bull (G3). The winner came back to win the Fountain of Youth (G2) and is the early betting favorite for the Run for the Roses. He won the Champagne (G1) last year in his first go against winners, catching a sloppy surface. He is the most local runner among those not exiting the Risen Star. This guy is a half to multiple stakes winner Justin Phillip ($1.2 million).

Mo Tom was outrun early while saving ground, had to check hard nearing the 3 1/6's and regained his momentum and finished up well for third, beaten 1 1/2 lengths for the top spot. He was a sharp winner two back in the Lecomte over our top pick. He was on the best part of the surface early last out but he looks capable of moving forward off his last effort, but his price may end up on the light side.

Wagering
WIN: #7 to win at 10-1 or better.
EX: 2,7 / 2,6,7,8
TRI: 2,7 / 2,6,7,8 / 1,2,6,7,8,11

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Gulfstream Park
R1: #1 Havermeyer Street 15-1
R2: #4 Fastidia’s Sun 8-1
R4: #6 Zipi Zapa 8-1
R6: #6 Tessier 15-1
R8: #7 Little Baker 10-1
R9: #6 World Leader 8-1
R10: #9 Alex the Dude 12-1
R10: #6 Parmel Landing 8-1
R11: #9 Shake Down Baby 10-1
R11: #11 Pulled the Goalie 12-1
R12: #11 Appa 10-1

Good luck today!
 
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A11 - G2 Louisiana Derby
By Anthony Stabile

Anthony's Eleven (3/25/16)

Rank Horse Jockey Trainer Next Race Derby Points

1 Mohaymen Junior Alvarado Kiaran McLaughlin Florida Derby (4/2 at GP) 70 pts
2 Greenpointcrusader John Velazquez Dom Schettino Louisiana Derby (3/26 at FG) 14 pts
3 Gun Runner Florent Geroux Steve Asmussen Louisiana Derby (3/26 at FG) 51 pts
4 Zulu John Velazquez Todd Pletcher Undecided 20 pts
5 Nyquist Mario Gutierrez Doug O'Neill Florida Derby (4/2 at GP) 30 pts
6 Shagaf Irad Ortiz, Jr. Chad Brown Wood Memorial (4/9 at AQU) 50 pts
7 Whitmore Irad Ortiz, Jr. Ron Moquett Rebel (3/19 at OP) 24 pts
8 Cupid Martin Garcia Bob Baffert Arkansas Derb (4/16 at OP) 50 pts
9 Mo Tom Corie Lanerie Tom Amoss Louisiana Derby (3/26 at FG) 22 pts
10 Exaggerator Kent Desormeaux Keith Desormeaux San Felipe (3/12 at SA) 26 pts
11 Outwork John Velazquez Todd Pletcher Undecided 20 pts

The first of the 100 point Kentucky Derby points races get underway this weekend, nearly a half a world away from each other. We won’t talk about the G2 U.A.E. Derby at Meydan in Dubai because it’s unlikely to produce a Kentucky Derby runner this year unlike last season when Mubtaahij was victorious and became my Derby pick in the process.

Instead, we’ll spend our time this week focusing on the $1million, G2 Louisiana Derby going a mile and an eighth at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans. A field of 11 is set to go to post in what will be, for most of these, the final start before the Run for the Roses, still some six weeks away.

Gun Runner made his 2016 debut a winning one, rallying from mid-pack to take the G2 Risen Star for trainer Steve Asmussen. Gun Runner seemed to tire a bit after making the lead at the top of the stretch but dug in determinedly and should move forward off of what should prove to be a useful prep.

As a juvenile, Gun Runner won his first two starts before suffering his lone defeat in the G2 KJC over a sloppy track at Churchill Downs. Florent Geroux, who was aboard for the first time in the Risen Star, returns. Gun Runner will break from post 1.

The G3 LeComte is the other major prep for this Derby down in the bayou and its’ winner, Mo Tom, is back off of a bit of a trouble line when he settled for third in the Risen Star.

Trained by Tom Amoss, Mo Tom has been a model of consistency, winning three of his six career starts and finishing third in his other three while ALWAYS coming on late with his patented stretch rally. It was that stretch rally that enabled him to pass them all in the final stages of the LeComte to win going away by over two lengths despite some trouble at the start.

That same stretch rally got him into some trouble in the Risen Star, though. Placed on the rail, the place to be Risen Star Day, regular rider Corey Lanerie took advantage of the hot pace set in front of him and came running along the rail but was forced to check Mo Tom sharply, briefly losing momentum. He finished just 1 ½ lengths behind the winner while many felt he was best that day. Mo Tom will break from post 6

Greenpointcrusader adds a bit of intrigue to the Louisiana Derby as he makes just his second start of the season for trainer Dom Schettino. He won two of four last year, including the G1 Champagne with a powerful late run through the slop at Belmont before finishing off of the board in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile after a wide trip.

In his lone start this year, his rider John Velazquez tried taking advantage of a seemingly paceless race and put Greenpointcrusader on the lead in the G2 Holy Bull at Gulfstream. His lead was brief, as he was no match for the undefeated Mohaymen but he did stay on nicely for second. Greenpointcrusader will break from post 2.

Forevamo jumped up and ran a big one for trainer AL Stall, Jr. in the Risen Star when he missed by just a half-length at 40-1. Regular rider CJ Hernandez saved ground before unleashing Forevamo in just his second start of the year. Last year, he broke his maiden in a stakes prep for the G3 Delta Jackpot, a race he finished sixth in. He will break from post 11.

Dazzling Gem ships in from Oaklawn for trainer Brad Cox off of a pair of two turn wins to start his career. After breaking his maiden going a mile in January from just off the pace, he used a similar move to take an entry level allowance contest in mid-February. Shaun Bridgmohan, aboard for both prior wins, returns from post 9. It’s worth nothing the Cox has said he may scratch Dazzling Gem and wait for the G1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn on 4/15.

Candy My Boy had his two race win streak snapped in the Risen Star for trainer Roger Brueggemann. Candy My Boy broke his maiden in gate-to-wire fashion when stepping up in class to the special weight ranks on New Year’s Eve then used the same front running tactics to defeat Forevamo in an entry level allowance/optional claimer before tiring to fourth in the Risen Star after setting the pace. Francisco Torres, aboard for the tally two back, returns from post 5.

Todd Pletcher ships Battery in from Gulfstream Park off of a win in an entry level allowance/optional claimer going this nine furlong trip. In fact, Battery is the only horse in the field to have gone this far already and has made all four of his starts at distances beyond a mile. Javier Castellano rides from post 3

Conquest Windycity rides a two race win streak into the Risen Star for Mark Casse. Conquest Windycity broke his maiden in the slop at Keeneland last October before returning from a four-plus month layoff to win an allowance contest at Oaklawn under Joe Rocco, Jr. He’ll break from post 4.

Tom’s Ready is the most seasoned runner in this field as he’ll be making his ninth start, sixth against stakes company, for trainer Dallas Stewart. Tom’s Ready briefly held the lead before settling for second in the LeComte then failed to fire when seventh in the Risen Star. B.J. Hernandez Jr. rides from post 7.

Uncle Walter is winless in his three starts since breaking his maiden at first asking for Mike Maker and adds blinkers for his third stakes try. An encouraging third in the LeComte, Uncle Walter finished last of 11, over 40 lengths behind the winner, in the Risen Star. He’ll break from post 8 with new rider Robby Albarado.

Zapperini was a late nominee to the Triple Crown to the tune of $6,000 off of a fifth place finish in the Risen Star. Trained by Greg Foley, Zapperini has one once in three starts to date and gets the riding services of the red hot Julien Leparoux. He’ll break from post 10.

Prep Play of the Day

Make a $1 trifecta art-wheel Gun Runner, Greenpointcrusader and Battery with Gun Runner, Greenpointcrusader and Battery with All. Costs $54. Good luck!!!!

Bankroll: 76.50
 
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Woodbine Harness: Saturday 3/26 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF HARNESS

Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

20-CENT PICK 5: 3,4,6,8/2,4/6/3,5,7/1,3,9 = $14.40

EARLY PICK 4: 3,5,7/1,3,9/8,9/2,6,7 = $54

LATE PICK 4: 2,6,7/3/1,2,3,7,8/5,7,8 = $45

MEET STATS: 308 - 978 / $1607.10 BEST BETS: 50 - 92 / $181.10

SPOT PLAYS: 21 - 91 / $218.80

Best Bet: IDOLE DUHARAS (3rd)

Spot Play: MACH CODE (4th)


Race 1

(6) SHELLYSSILVERMOON has been racing well off a variety of different trips and will be a good price here stepping up; call to upset. (8) INVEST IN ART should go better here with a tightener under her belt and might be firing off the gate this time. (4) ROCK HER WORLD followed some wicked fractions then almost chased the tiring leader down late. She is a contender but may be overbet.

Race 2

(2) FLAHERTY has been showing rapid improvement and could get a great trip here behind likely favorite (4) MACH POWER, who hasn't impressed in his past two starts and is beatable at a short price here. Slight nod to the former based on expected odds. (3) SPORTY MERCEDES has improved his finishing speed in his past two starts and can close late for a piece of this.

Race 3

(6) IDOLE DUHARAS is one of the most consistent horses on the circuit and it's his ability to both start and finish rapidly that makes him a deadly foe most nights. He will be tough to beat in this short field. (5) UF BETTORS HANOVER continues to finish off his miles quickly and would be dangerous if he can latch onto decent cover here. (7) WOGGY ROCKS goes for a new barn off the claim and his good form should be respected.

Race 4

(7) MACH CODE was flying late at Flamboro when racing off a 3-week break last time. He can beat this group and might be a decent price. (3) STIMULUS SPENDING is in top form but needs to be closer turning home to have a shot at the win here. (5) IMKEEPNTHISGUY motored up late to beat non-winners of three types now gets into this non-winners of two class based on being under the earnings limit (as do other multiple winners). He is an obvious threat.

Race 5

(3) MUSICAL SPELL left hard last week but was forced to take a tuck in third then got shuffled. He stands a better chance of landing in the coveted pocket spot here and can convert from there vs. this group. (9) EXEMPLAR raced better last week now gets to face slightly easier. He is the main danger. (1) CREAMPUFF MACDADDY raced like a new horse for Vanderkemp and must be considered here, even with the class rise.

Race 6

(9) NICKLE BAG shoots for his sixth straight Preferred win here and based on how he has dominated is hard to go against. (8) NIRVANA SEELSTER comes off a sharp win a class lower last week and should be out there winging early again. (7) THE REV has been racing well but hasn't been able to threaten the choice. A minor award is likely his ceiling here.

Race 7

(6) TIGHTEN UP elected to stay in last week which didn't work out. Expect a more aggressive try second time in this class. (7) DIGGIN IN drops back to the level at which he was claimed two back and will likely be on a mission to bottom out this field. (2) SHIPPEN OUT showed uncharacteristic grit last week and has shown he fits this class well in his past two; using.

Race 8

(3) EASY LOVER HANOVER enters the Youthful Series on a roll and will be tough to beat here. The only concern - if there is one - might be the 19-day gap between races. (6) THE CATAMOUNT KID showed some promise in a brief campaign last year and this group is well within his reach if he is fully cranked up for this seasonal debut. (1) WAR N MUNN swept the Count B series and isn't without a shot here.

Race 9

(1) TRACK MASTER D could trip out here near the lead; slight nod in a wide-open race that demands wide Pick-4 coverage. (3) IDEAL JET races more effectively stalking the pace. A change in racing style could produce a better result here. (2) SING FOR ME GEORGE looks ready based on his two qualifiers and should get a quick early pace to chase here; using.

Race 10

(7) P L HEAVENLY made two moves and was nailed only late last week. There are several inside of him that don't leave so a good trip on or near the lead is likely here. (8) FOREVER JUST flew home last week but was too far back at the 3/4. This field is no tougher despite the class rise 'on paper' and he offers some exotics pool value. (5) MACHAL JORDAN is always tough in these lower classes and the one that beat him last week made a huge backstretch move then sustained it; using. (3) SHOCK N ROCK projects to get a good trip here and should be passing many of these late. (9) COOL ROCK will be closing for a minor share as is typical with him.
 
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Meadowlands: Saturday 3/26 Analysis
By Derick Giwner

DRF HARNESS

Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 3 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Race 7 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet: MCARDLES LIGHTNING (8th)

Spot Play: FOUR STARZZZ Z (10th)

MEET STATS: 129 - 445 / $731.00 (-$159.00)

BEST BETS: 18 - 33 / $71.00 (+$5.00)


Race 1

(4) MONTALBANO BI was part of a pretty quick pace for this level last time. His prior effort was a nose loss at this same condition. (1) NO REASON AT ALL raced well after three months on the shelf and could show more in his second start as a 4-year-old. (7) KASCARA ROSA blew away a field at Yonkers last time and raced well after taking plenty of air when last seen here.

Race 2

(8) SKYWAY DANTE finished fast from last to pick up a second-place check upon arrival from Saratoga. I saw enough to put my support behind him against this shaky group. (7) has a string of average efforts to his credit in recent weeks but this veteran 13-year-old is capable of firing off the wings and going a long way on the engine. (9) GOOD CITATIONS has been closing for a good check each week and the outside post isn’t going to do him any favors in his quest for a picture.

Race 3

(2) STITCH IN TIME was a winner when last seen at this NW7500 level. He seems like a worthwhile play at 5-2 or better. (4) UPFRONT BILLY was in tough at Pocono last Saturday and should bring a better effort here. (5) HALL PASS HELEN dug in gamely a week ago and is clearly in form.

Race 4

(4) IDEAL MAGIC was a winner a few weeks ago at Pompano and is coming off a solid 2015 campaign. He looks as good as any in this bottom level event. (3) TWINCREEKS JESSE won in his only appearance at this level two starts back. (7) OUREA NOURRIR has good late pace in his most recent race, which is the norm for him. If the trip and pace work out, he can win. (9) NATHAN FEELSGOOD is back up north after a start at Pompano. He can play with this group.

Race 5

(4) BETTOR MEMORIES is going to turn the tables on (6) HONEY I’M HOME one of these days. He draws inside of that one again and hopefully he can keep him from getting away with the usual soft fractions. (5) DUKE OF DELRAY woke up in his second career race. There may be some ability here.

Race 6

(1) HOBOKEN HANOVER moves from a straight $12,500 claimer to a race filled with mostly $10k types. I’m expecting Zeron to make an early move to the front and take them a long way. (9) PIECE OF THE ROCK has retained his form despite switching barns and has the early speed to overcome the outside draw. (7) ROCKIN JIMMY could be a win threat if the pace is fast and his trip is clean.

Race 7

(7) MEL MARA was given a sweet spot and took advantage last Saturday. This crew is clearer tougher, but he seems up to the challenge. (5) PANSFORMATIVE is one of the sharpest horses on the grounds. (6) REAL NICE gets some serious class relief and seems like a must on your pick four tickets. (1) ASHLEY’S HUSBAND has proven over time that he can win at this level. (2) DYNAMIC YOUTH lured Bongiorno off Pansformative; that’s saying something.

Race 8

(4) MCARDLES LIGHTNING came up big when given class relief last time. He moves back up the ladder but should have the confidence to keep rolling. (6) HOPE FOR BADLANDS stays at the NW7600 level despite winning very easily last time; must use. (9) AVENUE HANOVER is sharp enough to compete, but it won’t be easy from post nine. (5) INVICTUS HANOVER has been racing pretty well; using underneath, at least.

Race 9

(5) MR CENSI dropped to this condition last time but actually gets a decent post position to work with this week. (1) JUNGLE OF TERROR won by three lengths when last against this kind. (9) THAT’S MY OPINION has proven capable. Driver Andy Miller needs to fire off the gate to have a chance. (3) SOUTHWIND INDY steps up off a win.

Race 10

(3) FOUR STARZZZ Z wasn’t going very far from post 10 in his first start since early January. I’m expecting to see a big effort this week. (7) CAPOZZO gets post and class relief this week. This guy has disappointed all year but this is certainly the easiest spot he has seen. (9) DAVID THE SAINT ships in from Yonkers in order to get in a cheaper condition; worth a look.

Race 11

(5) IM SUPERSONIC A was a sharp second behind a classy horse last out. If he puts in a similar effort, the result should be a win. (2) SWEET ROCK & (7) COBALT MAN get away from the streaking Art History and other top pacers currently racing at the Meadowlands.

Race 12

I’ve been going back and forth between (6) STEADY PULSE & (4) PEDRO’S DREAM. Ultimately the former gets my top call because he comes out of the higher percentage barn. He was used too hard last week and got caught in a fast mile two starts back. This should be his week. The latter picks up David Miller and should be able to make the lead quickly. (1) OAKMONT brushed and weakened in his most recent. I’m not a fan of this horse but respect his chances of hitting the board. (8) STORMIN RUSTLER is capable of hitting the exotics.
 
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Yonkers: Saturday 3/26 Analysis
By Matt Rose

DRF HARNESS

MEET STATS: 85 - 285 / $474.20

BEST BETS: 12 - 24 / $45.50

Best Bet: BIT OF A LEGEND N (8th)

Spot Play: IDEAL COWBOY (10th)


Race 1

(5) ALBERTO CONTADOR N took money from the outside, tried to leave, took back and didn't fire from third over last out, his second start off the bench. Veteran is legit at this level and I'm expecting a good effort tonight. (2) PASS THEM BY N was looped leaving last week then had to come uncovered; threat with a smoother trip. (1) ELECTROFIRE is up in class looking for two straight.

Race 2

(5) SNAP TO IT A was very game in defeat two back then never got involved from post eight; Tetrick could be firing from this spot. (1) HEEZ ORL BLACK N is reunited with Sears, and they teamed up for some wins last season. (2) STEVENSVILLE finally gets post relief and he'll be right there throughout.

Race 3

(1) LORD OF MISRULE was a nice two-move winner last week beating a classy rival; DiDomenico trainee could trip out again. (2) ASLAN couldn't hack it last week in the Levy; class relief helps here. (6) E Z NOAH almost pulled off a front-end upset last week.

Race 4

(4) LUNAR TIDE N sizzled on the front end last week and quit badly for Shaun Vallee; I like the fact that he's right back in and the price should be juicy. (1) MACHS BEACH BOY has really disappointed since coming back this year for Lachance; let's see if he can wake up tonight. (3) TWIN B HOLLISTER raced like he wasn't even trained last week for his post eight start; he's back inside tonight and that will make a big difference.

Race 5

(2) TEXICAN N came up just shy from the pocket last week; he should be sitting another live trip tonight. (6) LUCAN HANOVER was an easy winner in round one of the Levy. (3) LIMELIGHT BEACH gave way with no fight after walking on the front end; tough to endorse off that effort. (1) TE KAWAU N is an interesting import who qualified nicely; watch the board.

Race 6

(5) TWEET ME has looked very sharp in his last two and the mare looks to have a legit shot from this midpack post. (4) CRAZY ABOUT PAT returns locally after spending the winter in Florida and he's got plenty of class. (7) DW'S NY YANK banked almost 300K last year for Burke, including a handful of wins at Yonkers but he'll need to improve off his first 2016 start.

Race 7

(3) FOILED AGAIN wasn't great but wasn't awful in his seasonal debut; I would expect he will be a bit tighter tonight and can be more aggressively handled, perhaps even quarter-moving. (6) PHIL YOUR BOOTS had no chance last week but this may be a spot where he can be more involved. (1) MICHAEL'S POWER gets needed post relief and he's a legit speed threat.

Race 8

(4) BIT OF A LEGEND N exploded from the pocket last week and rolled by a good rival; he's inside what he needs to beat here and I expect another top-notch effort from perhaps the best horse in the series. (6) MACH IT SO raced really well and was clearly ready to go in his seasonal debut. (7) ALL BETS OFF is clearly no slouch and the top choice rolled by him anyway; he figures underneath again from this spot.

Race 9

(4) BETTOR ROCK ON N was a good two-move second best last week and here's another import who's done nothing wrong; worth a close look in this competitive affair. (3) SCOTT ROCKS was forced to tuck third last out, sat from there and finished with pace; can he make the front tonight? (1) DOMETHATAGAIN gets needed post relief and last year's Levy winner will look to hold position and sit a live trip.

Race 10

(6) IDEAL COWBOY has been very good in his two return starts after being very good all of last year; versatile gelding looms a big threat here and could offer a touch of value. (1) TAKE IT BACK TERRY was a game winner in round one and it's obvious the Burke trainee can repeat. (3) DREAM OUT LOUD N was uncovered and not threatening last week; he can rally late with a ground-saving trip.

Race 11

(3) FIERY LUSTRE N held well to the wire after an uncovered bid last week and he has to be respected off that effort. (1) OUTRAGEOUS ART is up in class after winning by daylight and he draws best. (4) CLASS SIX raced well upon hiking to this level but he's still got to prove himself with these.

Race 12

(2) ROCK ICON was nipped on the money last week after setting a quick pace; Banca trainee lands inside again and can redeem himself despite Bartlett opting off. (4) DOVUTO HANOVER is a legit talent who can't seem to stay healthy; threat. (3) LETTUCEROCKTHEM A took the money off a big qualifier but offered up nothing last week; if you stick with him tonight you will get a much better price.
 
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SPOT PLAYS

For Saturday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Aqueduct (2nd) Sixbits, 8-1
(9th) Naughty Grace, 4-1


Charles Town (4th) Right Danish, 3-1
(7th) Souper Funny, 7-2


Fair Grounds (4th) Next Event, 9-2
(13th) Sweet Acclaim, 3-1


Golden Gate Fields (2nd) Hello Irving, 10-1
(8th) Prince Charmant, 7-2


Gulfstream Park (8th) Frankie's Trigger, 8-1
(12th) English Mahaveer, 5-1


Hawthorne (1st) Nikaluk, 3-1
(2nd) Royal Seven, 8-1


Laurel (2nd) Automagically, 8-1
(10th) Blimey, 9-2


Mahoning Valley (4th) Seattle Summer, 8-1
(7th) Purple Flowers, 8-1


Oaklawn Park (1st) Kinetic, 5-1
(9th) Will Munnings, 3-1


Parx Racing (2nd) Souparion, 9-2
(7th) Classic Giacnroll, 7-2


Penn National (4th) Lady Gracenote, 5-1
(6th) Winking Dixie, 8-1


Santa Anita (4th) Fried Pickles, 4-1
(7th) West Mid, 5-1


Sunland Park (6th) Mr Ts Fave, 3-1
(8th) Metro Dreamer, 5-1


Tampa Bay Downs (5th) Angelo M, 5-1
(6th) Darnells Spirit, 6-1


Turf Paradise (4th) Nutty Futty, 10-1
(8th) Rocky Bar of Gold, 10-1


Turfway Park (5th) Strong Response, 5-1
(10th) Simeon, 7-2
 
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Saturday's six-pack

-- Florida football coach Jim McElwaine got a $750K raise, now makes $4.25M.

-- Oakland Raiders paid $925K in rent for the O.co Coliseum LY; they'll pay $3.5M next year. Thats what happens when you threaten to skip town.

-- Enough with The Masters commercials; they've been on since January.

-- With RGIII signing in Cleveland, looks like Denver is only team left that night trade for Colin Kaepernick.

-- Apparently the Shanahans talked to John Elway about RGIII and they weren't complimentary. Questions remain as to whether Mr Griffin can lead a team.

-- QB prospect Christian Hackenberg is blaming Penn State coach James Franklin for Hackenberg's reduced production his last two years at Penn State. While that may be true, not sure scouts like hearing a kid criticize his former coaches.
 
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Sharp Bettor

Sharp Bettor's Free Pick for Saturday, March 26, 2016, NBA.

A bad Philadelphia team that has packed in the season is a long way from home. The 76ers are 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 games playing on 2 days rest. Portland is a dynamite offensive team playing at home while fighting for playoff positioning. The Blazers are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games following a straight up loss and the Home team is 6-2-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.

Play Portland.
 
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Roz Wins

Roz's Saturday, March 26, 2016, Free NBA Pick:

A tough situational spot for the home team. Boston is rested and has won three in a row. The Celtics like to run with their depth and face a Phoenix team that is terrible on defense, No. 29 in points allowed and No. 27 in field goal shooting defense. By contrast, Boston is No. 4 in field goal shooting defense. Phoenix had to play last night at Sacramento and the Celtics are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

Play Boston.
 
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Dave Cokin

Bonus Play Saturday

77 FLYERS @ 78 COYOYES 10:05 PM

Take: 77 FLYERS -130

Is this the same Philadelphia team that muddled its way through much of the season? Certainly not, as far as their quality of play is concerned. The Flyers have surged all the way to making the playoffs as of today’s standings, and they’ve even got a chance to move up a couple more notches.

Philly looks to continue its stellar recent play tonight at Arizona. The Coyotes are technically still alive for a playoff berth, but realistically they’re not. Nevertheless, ‘Yotes fans should be excited about what’s in store for next season. Their young talent has really delivered this season, and I won’t be surprised to see Arizona be an upwardly mobile entry next year.

But as of right now, the Flyers are the better team and they’re playing at a clearly higher level. Steve Mason has been terrific in goal and make no mistake, when a team has a hot goalie, the skaters are generally going to play aggressively as they’re not as fearful about a gamble killing them. If you’ve been watching the Flyers games lately, you know exactly what I mean.

Obviously, the Flyers cannot afford to get complacent here. I’ll admit I’m mildly concerned about that. Philly has rolled into that last playoff spot as it stands right now, they’re playing a weaker team and there’s always that small chance they could relax mentally. But I’m more of the belief the big momentum currently running through this team has them hitting the ice firing tonight. I like the Flyers to pick up another important two points as they close out their road trip with a win against the Coyotes.
 
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Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Comp NBA Pick, Saturday, March 26, 2016 7:35 PM EST

(509) CLEVELAND CAVALIERS VS (510) NEW YORK KNICKS

Take: (510) NEW YORK KNICKS

Reason: Your Bonus Play for Saturday, March 26, 2016 is in the NBA scheduled contest between Cleveland Cavaliers and the Knicks from New York. New York is a home dog and has its two big offensive guns rolling, off a pair of wins against the Bulls as a dog each time where the offense topped 100 points. The Knicks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. A wacky Cleveland team is in town, up and down, working on its second coach. The Cavaliers are on a 1-6 ATS run and 3-12-2 ATS in their last 17 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings and the Cavaliers are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Play the NY Knicks.
 
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Mike Lundin

Cavs vs Knicks

5* NBA Free Pick Under

The Cleveland Cavaliers are off a humbling 104-95 loss at Brooklyn Thursday night. They've defeated the Knicks in three low-scoring games already this season (96-86, 90-84, 91-81) and neither team will have much incentive to make this a run-and-gun fest. Tyronn Lue and the Cavs have their eyes on the playoffs already and the players fitness and health is their only concern right now.

The New York Knicks swept a home-and-home set against Bulls Wednesday/Thursday and the under is 5-0 in their last five games following a straight up win. We can also note that the under is 10-2 in New York's 12 games so far in March, 18-7 against good offensive teams that are scoring 99+ points/game here in the 2nd half of the season and 5-0 in its last five games as a home underdog.

Each of the last six meetings have stayed under the total, a trend I think will hold true tonight.
 

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Saturday's six-pack

-- Florida football coach Jim McElwaine got a $750K raise, now makes $4.25M.

-- Oakland Raiders paid $925K in rent for the O.co Coliseum LY; they'll pay $3.5M next year. Thats what happens when you threaten to skip town.

-- Enough with The Masters commercials; they've been on since January.

-- With RGIII signing in Cleveland, looks like Denver is only team left that night trade for Colin Kaepernick.

-- Apparently the Shanahans talked to John Elway about RGIII and they weren't complimentary. Questions remain as to whether Mr Griffin can lead a team.

-- QB prospect Christian Hackenberg is blaming Penn State coach James Franklin for Hackenberg's reduced production his last two years at Penn State. While that may be true, not sure scouts like hearing a kid criticize his former coaches.

Apparently the Shanahans talked to John Elway about RGIII and they weren't complimentary. Questions remain as to whether Mr Griffin can lead a team.
Mike Shanahan ruined this guys career by playing him hurt in the playoff game against Seattle.. Now they are bashing him moving forward.. Get a life Mike Shanahan you couldn't even coach pee wee..Go away you turd
 

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