BURNS NCAA
Basketball (NCAA)
BAYLOR
Game: Texas A&M vs. Baylor Game Time: 2/14/2009 6:00:00 PM Prediction: Baylor Reason: I'm laying the points with BAYLOR. The Bears have certainly been struggling, having lost six straight, most recently a blowout loss vs. Oklahoma. However, they're a lot better than their record indicates and as teams like Notre Dame (seven straight losses, than beat Louisville by 33) have shown this week, you can only keep a good team down for so long. This should be an excellent spot for the Bears to break out of their slump. The Bears come in playing with "revenge," having lost at Texas A&M exactly one month ago. They followed that loss by winning games (SU and ATS) against Oklahoma State and Kansas State, before entering their current skid. A look at the six games shows that they came against Oklahoma (twice) Texas, Kansas, Missouri and Texas Tech. The first four of those teams have a combined record of 31-7. Of those five teams, only the Red Raiders are below 500 in conference play and the Bears had to face them on the road. Note that the Bears beat Texas Tech by double-digits when the teams met here at Baylor. Today, the Bears face a Texas A&M team which has lost four straight road games and which is just 3-6 in conference play. Naturally, that's a big step down from Oklahoma. Note that the Aggies 4-game road losing streak saw each of the losses come by a minimum of six points and by an average of 11.5 points. While they lost here last season, the Bears are still 7-2 ATS this millennium when hosting the Aggies. Look for them get on track in a big way today, improving to 7-3 ATS the last 10 times that they were coming off three or more consecutive losses. *Annihilator
GEORGETOWN
Game Time: 2/14/2009 12:00:00 PM Prediction: Georgetown Reason: I'm taking the points with GEORGETOWN. This is a big game for Syracuse. The Orange need wins and they're looking to avenge a blowout loss at Georgetown. However, its arguably an even bigger game for the Hoyas. Indeed, Georgetown has gone from being all but guaranteed of an NCAA tournament berth to having its chances now very much in doubt. While they lost a lot from last season's team and are admittedly still young, the Hoyas are very talented. They've got four players averaging better than a dozen points per game and a defense which allows 63.5 points per game. Note that Syracuse comes in allowing more than 70 per game. Despite failing to cover as underdogs at Marquette, the Hoyas are still a profitable 12-7-1 ATS the last 20 times that they were listed as underdogs. On the other hand, while they covered vs. West Virginia, the Orange are 7-10 ATS their last 17 when listed as favorites. The Georgetown offense came to life when these teams met exactly one month ago. In fact, Syracuse coach Jim Boeheim switched from the zone to man-to-man in an attempt to slow down the Hoyas. Afterwards, he was quoted as saying: "We gave them open looks, and they knocked them down. We played equally bad in both defenses." Playing a must win game, I expect the Hoyas to be at their best again this afternoon. *Big East GOM
GEORGIA TECH
Game: N.C. State vs. Georgia Tech Game Time: 2/14/2009 1:30:00 PM Prediction: Georgia Tech Reason: I'm laying the points with GEORGIA TECH. The Yellow Jackets have lost an awful lot of close games this season, thanks in large part to the fact they've been turnover prone. That said, they cut down on their turnovers last time out and I believe that they're much better than their poor conference record (1-9) indicates. While I've only played on the Yellow Jackets once all season, that was in their upset victory over Wake Forest. I believe that they're capable of playing with any team in the conference and that this will prove to be another very favorable situation for them. Georgia Tech has lost seven ACC games by seven points or less this season, including three in overtime. One of those losses came at NC State. The Jackets blew a big lead late in that game and lost in overtime. That loss really hurt and puts them in bigtime "revenge" mode here. With time winding down, they badly want to gain some momentum before the regular season finishes, particularly as the ACC Tournament will be at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta. Nothing comes easily in the ACC but the Jackets know that this is a rare winnable game, one which they can't afford to let get away. The Wolfpack may be ripe for a letdown, as they're off a big win over Wake Forest. While that victory was impressive, they're still just 3-6 in Conference play. Its important to note that all three of those wins (in addition to the win over the Jackets, they beat Miami by 3) came at home. On the road, the Wolfpack have really struggled. Indeed, they're 0-6 their last six road games with five of the six losses coming by four points or greater, three of them by double-digits. They've only got one road win on the season and that was at New Orleans back in November. Note that the Wolfpack failed to cover that game too, winning by six as 8.5 point favorites. (The Privateers currently have the second worst conference record (5-9) in the Sun Belt, worst in the West.) Looking back further and we find NC State at an ugly 1-12 its last 13 road games. The Wolfpack are just 3-6 ATS the last nine times that they were underdogs of four points or less. Off a huge win over an instate rival and with a "revenge" game vs. another instate rival (UNC) on deck, look for their road woes to continue today, as Georgia Tech puts it all together and earns a much needed victory, covering the small number along the way. *ACC GOY
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Game: Creighton vs. Southern Illinois Game Time: 2/14/2009 5:00:00 PM Prediction: Southern Illinois Reason: I'm taking the points with SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. The Bluejays have been playing well and bring the much better record to the table. However, the Salukis played them very tough at Creighton last month, losing by a single point. That result will give the Salukis the confidence to know that they can play with them here. Playing at home, I expect them to score the minor upset this afternoon. Despite their struggles on the road, the Salukis still play stingy defense at home. Indeed, they're allowing a mere 59.4 points per game here on the season - Creighton, which has the better offensive numbers, allows 67 per game on the road. The Salukis are 5-2 ATS when attempting to avenge an earlier road loss. They're also 41-29 ATS the last 70 times that they were coming off a conference loss. They've won eight of the last 11 home meetings in this series and I look for an extremely motivated effort here. *ESPN Best Bet
Basketball (NCAA)
BAYLOR
Game: Texas A&M vs. Baylor Game Time: 2/14/2009 6:00:00 PM Prediction: Baylor Reason: I'm laying the points with BAYLOR. The Bears have certainly been struggling, having lost six straight, most recently a blowout loss vs. Oklahoma. However, they're a lot better than their record indicates and as teams like Notre Dame (seven straight losses, than beat Louisville by 33) have shown this week, you can only keep a good team down for so long. This should be an excellent spot for the Bears to break out of their slump. The Bears come in playing with "revenge," having lost at Texas A&M exactly one month ago. They followed that loss by winning games (SU and ATS) against Oklahoma State and Kansas State, before entering their current skid. A look at the six games shows that they came against Oklahoma (twice) Texas, Kansas, Missouri and Texas Tech. The first four of those teams have a combined record of 31-7. Of those five teams, only the Red Raiders are below 500 in conference play and the Bears had to face them on the road. Note that the Bears beat Texas Tech by double-digits when the teams met here at Baylor. Today, the Bears face a Texas A&M team which has lost four straight road games and which is just 3-6 in conference play. Naturally, that's a big step down from Oklahoma. Note that the Aggies 4-game road losing streak saw each of the losses come by a minimum of six points and by an average of 11.5 points. While they lost here last season, the Bears are still 7-2 ATS this millennium when hosting the Aggies. Look for them get on track in a big way today, improving to 7-3 ATS the last 10 times that they were coming off three or more consecutive losses. *Annihilator
GEORGETOWN
Game Time: 2/14/2009 12:00:00 PM Prediction: Georgetown Reason: I'm taking the points with GEORGETOWN. This is a big game for Syracuse. The Orange need wins and they're looking to avenge a blowout loss at Georgetown. However, its arguably an even bigger game for the Hoyas. Indeed, Georgetown has gone from being all but guaranteed of an NCAA tournament berth to having its chances now very much in doubt. While they lost a lot from last season's team and are admittedly still young, the Hoyas are very talented. They've got four players averaging better than a dozen points per game and a defense which allows 63.5 points per game. Note that Syracuse comes in allowing more than 70 per game. Despite failing to cover as underdogs at Marquette, the Hoyas are still a profitable 12-7-1 ATS the last 20 times that they were listed as underdogs. On the other hand, while they covered vs. West Virginia, the Orange are 7-10 ATS their last 17 when listed as favorites. The Georgetown offense came to life when these teams met exactly one month ago. In fact, Syracuse coach Jim Boeheim switched from the zone to man-to-man in an attempt to slow down the Hoyas. Afterwards, he was quoted as saying: "We gave them open looks, and they knocked them down. We played equally bad in both defenses." Playing a must win game, I expect the Hoyas to be at their best again this afternoon. *Big East GOM
GEORGIA TECH
Game: N.C. State vs. Georgia Tech Game Time: 2/14/2009 1:30:00 PM Prediction: Georgia Tech Reason: I'm laying the points with GEORGIA TECH. The Yellow Jackets have lost an awful lot of close games this season, thanks in large part to the fact they've been turnover prone. That said, they cut down on their turnovers last time out and I believe that they're much better than their poor conference record (1-9) indicates. While I've only played on the Yellow Jackets once all season, that was in their upset victory over Wake Forest. I believe that they're capable of playing with any team in the conference and that this will prove to be another very favorable situation for them. Georgia Tech has lost seven ACC games by seven points or less this season, including three in overtime. One of those losses came at NC State. The Jackets blew a big lead late in that game and lost in overtime. That loss really hurt and puts them in bigtime "revenge" mode here. With time winding down, they badly want to gain some momentum before the regular season finishes, particularly as the ACC Tournament will be at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta. Nothing comes easily in the ACC but the Jackets know that this is a rare winnable game, one which they can't afford to let get away. The Wolfpack may be ripe for a letdown, as they're off a big win over Wake Forest. While that victory was impressive, they're still just 3-6 in Conference play. Its important to note that all three of those wins (in addition to the win over the Jackets, they beat Miami by 3) came at home. On the road, the Wolfpack have really struggled. Indeed, they're 0-6 their last six road games with five of the six losses coming by four points or greater, three of them by double-digits. They've only got one road win on the season and that was at New Orleans back in November. Note that the Wolfpack failed to cover that game too, winning by six as 8.5 point favorites. (The Privateers currently have the second worst conference record (5-9) in the Sun Belt, worst in the West.) Looking back further and we find NC State at an ugly 1-12 its last 13 road games. The Wolfpack are just 3-6 ATS the last nine times that they were underdogs of four points or less. Off a huge win over an instate rival and with a "revenge" game vs. another instate rival (UNC) on deck, look for their road woes to continue today, as Georgia Tech puts it all together and earns a much needed victory, covering the small number along the way. *ACC GOY
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Game: Creighton vs. Southern Illinois Game Time: 2/14/2009 5:00:00 PM Prediction: Southern Illinois Reason: I'm taking the points with SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. The Bluejays have been playing well and bring the much better record to the table. However, the Salukis played them very tough at Creighton last month, losing by a single point. That result will give the Salukis the confidence to know that they can play with them here. Playing at home, I expect them to score the minor upset this afternoon. Despite their struggles on the road, the Salukis still play stingy defense at home. Indeed, they're allowing a mere 59.4 points per game here on the season - Creighton, which has the better offensive numbers, allows 67 per game on the road. The Salukis are 5-2 ATS when attempting to avenge an earlier road loss. They're also 41-29 ATS the last 70 times that they were coming off a conference loss. They've won eight of the last 11 home meetings in this series and I look for an extremely motivated effort here. *ESPN Best Bet
Matt Rivers
100,000* ABSOLUTE NO-BRAINER Plus Bonus Locks
Your winners here are on:
1. 100,000♦ South Carolina
2. 50,000♦ Northeastern
3. 50,000♦ Kansas
1. I really do not like laying points like this on the road against a team in Alabama that in years past have been very good on their home court but right now this Alabama team is a joke. Mike Gottfried is gone and the Tide have lost Ronald Steele for the season. Nothing at all has gone right for this team in what feels like years now and the program is pretty much in free fall mode. The Tide have dropped four of five and six of eight and even in wins have looked sketchy at the very best. These guys beat a terrible Georgia team by only five points and right now are not even an average squad.
South Carolina is a tough team that just continues to impress. Sure we don't think of this program as anything special and many seasons have been as an SEC doormat but things really have changed and this team has been really solid. This season has been far from being a fluke as the Gamecocks have a lot of talent and guys that have played together for a while now.
Darrin Horn has done a great job this season leading to the 17-5 overall record and 6-3 conference mark. Devan Downey is an absolute stud that can take this game over. Throw in Brandis Raley-Ross, Zam Frederick, Dominique Archie, Mike Holmes and others and you have a team that is no joke right now. Of course the road will make this thing somewhat difficult but the 'Cocks just beat Kentucky outright on the road and have covered four of five away from home. They also won in Waco earlier in the season when Baylor was still good and flat out should run through a well inferior 'Bama squad today.
The upside is here as we could win this thing going away but there is no way that the home boys have enough to take care of business with ease. A possible 15 point cover is not out of reach but Alabama doing that is silly making this a very good value.
2. Northeastern has been the best team in the Colonial pretty much all season long. It used to be VCU and George Mason were the class of the conference but neither the Patriots nor Rams have been all that of late. In fact today's home squad and final four team a few seasons ago have dropped three of four and five of seven including defeats against well inferior opponents in Delaware and James Madison. Something has been missing for Jim Larinagga's team as things have not been right at all of late. All of those losses did come on the road and the Patriots have taken care of business at home and are a perfect 11-0 there but I still do not trust these guys as they are not an overall confident club right now.
The Huskies have lost two of three themselves and are not exactly rolling like they had been earlier in the season but there is no reason at all why they cannot win this game, no less grab the cash of a hefty number. Matt Janning is a very very good player and with wins on the road at VCU, Old Dominion, Indiana, Providence, Delaware and others this team knows how to travel and being on the highway really should not be that big of a concern.
Mason certainly could stay perfect at home with a win here but Northeastern is still underrated and well worth a play today.
3. Kansas State has been very impressive of late and overall a lot better than people thought after Michael Beasley left for the NBA but when push comes to shove Kansas is still the superior team.
I went against the Jayhawks the other day in Missouri and it hurt me as KU lost the game late but covered easily as they led throughout. The Tigers had that great comeback late to win the game on the court but I was extremely impressed with Bill Self's kids as they are really coming around of late and playing phenomenal defense. To hold Mike Davis's high octane offense in the teens for the first half and 62 points for the entire game is almost impossible to believe. Add in the eight game winning streak previous and 11 wins in 12 games and you see a team that is ready to compete with anybody.
Sherron Collins is a star and others have been on the cum including Cole Aldrich who is a semi beast down low. These guys are obviously not as good as last season's National Championship team but in a year or two they do have that potential. Over the past month the Jayhawks have proven they can play on the road with impressive win after win and flat out should outclass a rapidly improving and good K State club but not a great team by any means.
Denis Clemente will do his thing as the guy is super for the Wildcats who have now won six straight but it is not going to be enough against an ultra dangerous team right now in Kansas.
__________________
100,000* ABSOLUTE NO-BRAINER Plus Bonus Locks
Your winners here are on:
1. 100,000♦ South Carolina
2. 50,000♦ Northeastern
3. 50,000♦ Kansas
1. I really do not like laying points like this on the road against a team in Alabama that in years past have been very good on their home court but right now this Alabama team is a joke. Mike Gottfried is gone and the Tide have lost Ronald Steele for the season. Nothing at all has gone right for this team in what feels like years now and the program is pretty much in free fall mode. The Tide have dropped four of five and six of eight and even in wins have looked sketchy at the very best. These guys beat a terrible Georgia team by only five points and right now are not even an average squad.
South Carolina is a tough team that just continues to impress. Sure we don't think of this program as anything special and many seasons have been as an SEC doormat but things really have changed and this team has been really solid. This season has been far from being a fluke as the Gamecocks have a lot of talent and guys that have played together for a while now.
Darrin Horn has done a great job this season leading to the 17-5 overall record and 6-3 conference mark. Devan Downey is an absolute stud that can take this game over. Throw in Brandis Raley-Ross, Zam Frederick, Dominique Archie, Mike Holmes and others and you have a team that is no joke right now. Of course the road will make this thing somewhat difficult but the 'Cocks just beat Kentucky outright on the road and have covered four of five away from home. They also won in Waco earlier in the season when Baylor was still good and flat out should run through a well inferior 'Bama squad today.
The upside is here as we could win this thing going away but there is no way that the home boys have enough to take care of business with ease. A possible 15 point cover is not out of reach but Alabama doing that is silly making this a very good value.
2. Northeastern has been the best team in the Colonial pretty much all season long. It used to be VCU and George Mason were the class of the conference but neither the Patriots nor Rams have been all that of late. In fact today's home squad and final four team a few seasons ago have dropped three of four and five of seven including defeats against well inferior opponents in Delaware and James Madison. Something has been missing for Jim Larinagga's team as things have not been right at all of late. All of those losses did come on the road and the Patriots have taken care of business at home and are a perfect 11-0 there but I still do not trust these guys as they are not an overall confident club right now.
The Huskies have lost two of three themselves and are not exactly rolling like they had been earlier in the season but there is no reason at all why they cannot win this game, no less grab the cash of a hefty number. Matt Janning is a very very good player and with wins on the road at VCU, Old Dominion, Indiana, Providence, Delaware and others this team knows how to travel and being on the highway really should not be that big of a concern.
Mason certainly could stay perfect at home with a win here but Northeastern is still underrated and well worth a play today.
3. Kansas State has been very impressive of late and overall a lot better than people thought after Michael Beasley left for the NBA but when push comes to shove Kansas is still the superior team.
I went against the Jayhawks the other day in Missouri and it hurt me as KU lost the game late but covered easily as they led throughout. The Tigers had that great comeback late to win the game on the court but I was extremely impressed with Bill Self's kids as they are really coming around of late and playing phenomenal defense. To hold Mike Davis's high octane offense in the teens for the first half and 62 points for the entire game is almost impossible to believe. Add in the eight game winning streak previous and 11 wins in 12 games and you see a team that is ready to compete with anybody.
Sherron Collins is a star and others have been on the cum including Cole Aldrich who is a semi beast down low. These guys are obviously not as good as last season's National Championship team but in a year or two they do have that potential. Over the past month the Jayhawks have proven they can play on the road with impressive win after win and flat out should outclass a rapidly improving and good K State club but not a great team by any means.
Denis Clemente will do his thing as the guy is super for the Wildcats who have now won six straight but it is not going to be enough against an ultra dangerous team right now in Kansas.
__________________
BURNS NCAA
Basketball (NCAA)
BAYLOR
Game: Texas A&M vs. Baylor Game Time: 2/14/2009 6:00:00 PM Prediction: Baylor Reason: I'm laying the points with BAYLOR. The Bears have certainly been struggling, having lost six straight, most recently a blowout loss vs. Oklahoma. However, they're a lot better than their record indicates and as teams like Notre Dame (seven straight losses, than beat Louisville by 33) have shown this week, you can only keep a good team down for so long. This should be an excellent spot for the Bears to break out of their slump. The Bears come in playing with "revenge," having lost at Texas A&M exactly one month ago. They followed that loss by winning games (SU and ATS) against Oklahoma State and Kansas State, before entering their current skid. A look at the six games shows that they came against Oklahoma (twice) Texas, Kansas, Missouri and Texas Tech. The first four of those teams have a combined record of 31-7. Of those five teams, only the Red Raiders are below 500 in conference play and the Bears had to face them on the road. Note that the Bears beat Texas Tech by double-digits when the teams met here at Baylor. Today, the Bears face a Texas A&M team which has lost four straight road games and which is just 3-6 in conference play. Naturally, that's a big step down from Oklahoma. Note that the Aggies 4-game road losing streak saw each of the losses come by a minimum of six points and by an average of 11.5 points. While they lost here last season, the Bears are still 7-2 ATS this millennium when hosting the Aggies. Look for them get on track in a big way today, improving to 7-3 ATS the last 10 times that they were coming off three or more consecutive losses. *Annihilator
GEORGETOWN
Game Time: 2/14/2009 12:00:00 PM Prediction: Georgetown Reason: I'm taking the points with GEORGETOWN. This is a big game for Syracuse. The Orange need wins and they're looking to avenge a blowout loss at Georgetown. However, its arguably an even bigger game for the Hoyas. Indeed, Georgetown has gone from being all but guaranteed of an NCAA tournament berth to having its chances now very much in doubt. While they lost a lot from last season's team and are admittedly still young, the Hoyas are very talented. They've got four players averaging better than a dozen points per game and a defense which allows 63.5 points per game. Note that Syracuse comes in allowing more than 70 per game. Despite failing to cover as underdogs at Marquette, the Hoyas are still a profitable 12-7-1 ATS the last 20 times that they were listed as underdogs. On the other hand, while they covered vs. West Virginia, the Orange are 7-10 ATS their last 17 when listed as favorites. The Georgetown offense came to life when these teams met exactly one month ago. In fact, Syracuse coach Jim Boeheim switched from the zone to man-to-man in an attempt to slow down the Hoyas. Afterwards, he was quoted as saying: "We gave them open looks, and they knocked them down. We played equally bad in both defenses." Playing a must win game, I expect the Hoyas to be at their best again this afternoon. *Big East GOM
GEORGIA TECH
Game: N.C. State vs. Georgia Tech Game Time: 2/14/2009 1:30:00 PM Prediction: Georgia Tech Reason: I'm laying the points with GEORGIA TECH. The Yellow Jackets have lost an awful lot of close games this season, thanks in large part to the fact they've been turnover prone. That said, they cut down on their turnovers last time out and I believe that they're much better than their poor conference record (1-9) indicates. While I've only played on the Yellow Jackets once all season, that was in their upset victory over Wake Forest. I believe that they're capable of playing with any team in the conference and that this will prove to be another very favorable situation for them. Georgia Tech has lost seven ACC games by seven points or less this season, including three in overtime. One of those losses came at NC State. The Jackets blew a big lead late in that game and lost in overtime. That loss really hurt and puts them in bigtime "revenge" mode here. With time winding down, they badly want to gain some momentum before the regular season finishes, particularly as the ACC Tournament will be at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta. Nothing comes easily in the ACC but the Jackets know that this is a rare winnable game, one which they can't afford to let get away. The Wolfpack may be ripe for a letdown, as they're off a big win over Wake Forest. While that victory was impressive, they're still just 3-6 in Conference play. Its important to note that all three of those wins (in addition to the win over the Jackets, they beat Miami by 3) came at home. On the road, the Wolfpack have really struggled. Indeed, they're 0-6 their last six road games with five of the six losses coming by four points or greater, three of them by double-digits. They've only got one road win on the season and that was at New Orleans back in November. Note that the Wolfpack failed to cover that game too, winning by six as 8.5 point favorites. (The Privateers currently have the second worst conference record (5-9) in the Sun Belt, worst in the West.) Looking back further and we find NC State at an ugly 1-12 its last 13 road games. The Wolfpack are just 3-6 ATS the last nine times that they were underdogs of four points or less. Off a huge win over an instate rival and with a "revenge" game vs. another instate rival (UNC) on deck, look for their road woes to continue today, as Georgia Tech puts it all together and earns a much needed victory, covering the small number along the way. *ACC GOY
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Game: Creighton vs. Southern Illinois Game Time: 2/14/2009 5:00:00 PM Prediction: Southern Illinois Reason: I'm taking the points with SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. The Bluejays have been playing well and bring the much better record to the table. However, the Salukis played them very tough at Creighton last month, losing by a single point. That result will give the Salukis the confidence to know that they can play with them here. Playing at home, I expect them to score the minor upset this afternoon. Despite their struggles on the road, the Salukis still play stingy defense at home. Indeed, they're allowing a mere 59.4 points per game here on the season - Creighton, which has the better offensive numbers, allows 67 per game on the road. The Salukis are 5-2 ATS when attempting to avenge an earlier road loss. They're also 41-29 ATS the last 70 times that they were coming off a conference loss. They've won eight of the last 11 home meetings in this series and I look for an extremely motivated effort here. *ESPN Best Bet
Basketball (NCAA)
BAYLOR
Game: Texas A&M vs. Baylor Game Time: 2/14/2009 6:00:00 PM Prediction: Baylor Reason: I'm laying the points with BAYLOR. The Bears have certainly been struggling, having lost six straight, most recently a blowout loss vs. Oklahoma. However, they're a lot better than their record indicates and as teams like Notre Dame (seven straight losses, than beat Louisville by 33) have shown this week, you can only keep a good team down for so long. This should be an excellent spot for the Bears to break out of their slump. The Bears come in playing with "revenge," having lost at Texas A&M exactly one month ago. They followed that loss by winning games (SU and ATS) against Oklahoma State and Kansas State, before entering their current skid. A look at the six games shows that they came against Oklahoma (twice) Texas, Kansas, Missouri and Texas Tech. The first four of those teams have a combined record of 31-7. Of those five teams, only the Red Raiders are below 500 in conference play and the Bears had to face them on the road. Note that the Bears beat Texas Tech by double-digits when the teams met here at Baylor. Today, the Bears face a Texas A&M team which has lost four straight road games and which is just 3-6 in conference play. Naturally, that's a big step down from Oklahoma. Note that the Aggies 4-game road losing streak saw each of the losses come by a minimum of six points and by an average of 11.5 points. While they lost here last season, the Bears are still 7-2 ATS this millennium when hosting the Aggies. Look for them get on track in a big way today, improving to 7-3 ATS the last 10 times that they were coming off three or more consecutive losses. *Annihilator
GEORGETOWN
Game Time: 2/14/2009 12:00:00 PM Prediction: Georgetown Reason: I'm taking the points with GEORGETOWN. This is a big game for Syracuse. The Orange need wins and they're looking to avenge a blowout loss at Georgetown. However, its arguably an even bigger game for the Hoyas. Indeed, Georgetown has gone from being all but guaranteed of an NCAA tournament berth to having its chances now very much in doubt. While they lost a lot from last season's team and are admittedly still young, the Hoyas are very talented. They've got four players averaging better than a dozen points per game and a defense which allows 63.5 points per game. Note that Syracuse comes in allowing more than 70 per game. Despite failing to cover as underdogs at Marquette, the Hoyas are still a profitable 12-7-1 ATS the last 20 times that they were listed as underdogs. On the other hand, while they covered vs. West Virginia, the Orange are 7-10 ATS their last 17 when listed as favorites. The Georgetown offense came to life when these teams met exactly one month ago. In fact, Syracuse coach Jim Boeheim switched from the zone to man-to-man in an attempt to slow down the Hoyas. Afterwards, he was quoted as saying: "We gave them open looks, and they knocked them down. We played equally bad in both defenses." Playing a must win game, I expect the Hoyas to be at their best again this afternoon. *Big East GOM
GEORGIA TECH
Game: N.C. State vs. Georgia Tech Game Time: 2/14/2009 1:30:00 PM Prediction: Georgia Tech Reason: I'm laying the points with GEORGIA TECH. The Yellow Jackets have lost an awful lot of close games this season, thanks in large part to the fact they've been turnover prone. That said, they cut down on their turnovers last time out and I believe that they're much better than their poor conference record (1-9) indicates. While I've only played on the Yellow Jackets once all season, that was in their upset victory over Wake Forest. I believe that they're capable of playing with any team in the conference and that this will prove to be another very favorable situation for them. Georgia Tech has lost seven ACC games by seven points or less this season, including three in overtime. One of those losses came at NC State. The Jackets blew a big lead late in that game and lost in overtime. That loss really hurt and puts them in bigtime "revenge" mode here. With time winding down, they badly want to gain some momentum before the regular season finishes, particularly as the ACC Tournament will be at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta. Nothing comes easily in the ACC but the Jackets know that this is a rare winnable game, one which they can't afford to let get away. The Wolfpack may be ripe for a letdown, as they're off a big win over Wake Forest. While that victory was impressive, they're still just 3-6 in Conference play. Its important to note that all three of those wins (in addition to the win over the Jackets, they beat Miami by 3) came at home. On the road, the Wolfpack have really struggled. Indeed, they're 0-6 their last six road games with five of the six losses coming by four points or greater, three of them by double-digits. They've only got one road win on the season and that was at New Orleans back in November. Note that the Wolfpack failed to cover that game too, winning by six as 8.5 point favorites. (The Privateers currently have the second worst conference record (5-9) in the Sun Belt, worst in the West.) Looking back further and we find NC State at an ugly 1-12 its last 13 road games. The Wolfpack are just 3-6 ATS the last nine times that they were underdogs of four points or less. Off a huge win over an instate rival and with a "revenge" game vs. another instate rival (UNC) on deck, look for their road woes to continue today, as Georgia Tech puts it all together and earns a much needed victory, covering the small number along the way. *ACC GOY
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Game: Creighton vs. Southern Illinois Game Time: 2/14/2009 5:00:00 PM Prediction: Southern Illinois Reason: I'm taking the points with SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. The Bluejays have been playing well and bring the much better record to the table. However, the Salukis played them very tough at Creighton last month, losing by a single point. That result will give the Salukis the confidence to know that they can play with them here. Playing at home, I expect them to score the minor upset this afternoon. Despite their struggles on the road, the Salukis still play stingy defense at home. Indeed, they're allowing a mere 59.4 points per game here on the season - Creighton, which has the better offensive numbers, allows 67 per game on the road. The Salukis are 5-2 ATS when attempting to avenge an earlier road loss. They're also 41-29 ATS the last 70 times that they were coming off a conference loss. They've won eight of the last 11 home meetings in this series and I look for an extremely motivated effort here. *ESPN Best Bet
