Jeff Saad of Las Vegas Sports Services
12/06: Saturday NBA Free Pick:
Warriors at Bulls: A pair of strong defensive teams meet, and Golden State is 13-5 under the total against the East. The under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Chicago and this one will too.
Play the Warriors/Bulls under the total!
12/06: Saturday NBA Free Pick:
Warriors at Bulls: A pair of strong defensive teams meet, and Golden State is 13-5 under the total against the East. The under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Chicago and this one will too.
Play the Warriors/Bulls under the total!
Mr. Vegas
Mr. Vegas Free Saturday NBA pick 12/06: 8:05 PM ET
(505) GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS VS (506) CHICAGO BULLS
Take: (505) GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
The Warriors are proving they may be the best of the West this year as they have jumped out to a 16-2 S/U start. They have also been very good to bettors with a 13-5 ATS mark. On the road the Warriors are 9-1 S/U and 8-2 ATS thanks in part to one of the most stingy defenses. If we look at their defensive efficiency (points per possession) they rank at or near the top of the NBA with a 98.3 overall rating and even better 96.1 road rating (league average is 107.3). Add to that a near best pace (possessions per 48 minutes) of 97.3 overall and 98.2 road and we can see why this team is so good. The Bulls are having a decent year in the much weaker east, posting a 12-7 S/U record and below average 8-11 ATS mark. Surprisingly, the Bulls are just 2-4 S/U at home and 1-5 ATS. The Warriors are just too good right now and that's who I'm sticking with. take the Warriors.
Mr. Vegas Free Saturday NBA pick 12/06: 8:05 PM ET
(505) GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS VS (506) CHICAGO BULLS
Take: (505) GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
The Warriors are proving they may be the best of the West this year as they have jumped out to a 16-2 S/U start. They have also been very good to bettors with a 13-5 ATS mark. On the road the Warriors are 9-1 S/U and 8-2 ATS thanks in part to one of the most stingy defenses. If we look at their defensive efficiency (points per possession) they rank at or near the top of the NBA with a 98.3 overall rating and even better 96.1 road rating (league average is 107.3). Add to that a near best pace (possessions per 48 minutes) of 97.3 overall and 98.2 road and we can see why this team is so good. The Bulls are having a decent year in the much weaker east, posting a 12-7 S/U record and below average 8-11 ATS mark. Surprisingly, the Bulls are just 2-4 S/U at home and 1-5 ATS. The Warriors are just too good right now and that's who I'm sticking with. take the Warriors.
Dave Cokin
Bonus Play Saturday 8:00 PM NCAAF
(125) FLORIDA STATE vs. (126) GEORGIA TECH
Take: (126) GEORGIA TECH +4
Florida State is still standing with the perfect record and regardless of how fortunate they’ve been, the fact remains they will have earned their way into the playoff if they can win once more tonight.
But for the Seminoles to maintain the unbeaten slate, it also stands to reason they’re likely going have to play their best game of the season to date to survive this challenge. Florida State has beaten some solid squads. Onnly three wins, aside from the non-FBC game with Citadel, have come against teams I’ve got currently rated outside the Top 50, so it’s not as though they’ve been barely getting past a collection of bums. Lucky to some extent, sure. But some of the criticism being hurled at this Seminoles team is laughable. They’re damn good, and when a team manages to find a way to win every game, they’re probably better than most think.
That said, the Georgia Tech entry the ‘Noles will duel tonight is the best team they’ve faced all season. Paul Johnson has the Ramblin ‘Wreck playing terrific football down the stretch. Don’t be misled by the OT win against Georgia last week. The Yellow Jackets dominated that football game, and if not for a highly disputable officiating decision that resulted in a probably 14-point swing in Georgia’s favor, this game would not have been close.
Fundamentally, Georgia Tech has a good chance to exploit the Florida State defensive front, which while hardly a sieve, has not been a shutdown unit either. The Yellow Jackets will be without their best wideout, who’s also a terrific blocker, and that’s a concern, but the have depth at that spot and should be able to handle the loss.
Jameis Winston has been mistake prone. He’s rallied the troops on several occasions with some huge second halves, but in a game of this type, Winston needs to cut down on his mistakes. Giving a huge end ball control offense such as the one Georgia Tech owns would be potentially disastrous.
As far as the numbers go, I’ve got these teams very close. On a neutral field, I have Florida State two points better than the Yellow Jackets. That’s not a big swing from where the actual line is. But when it’s a small betting line, even a one or two point edge can be of significance.
The pressure here is on Florida State. They’re used to it, however, and even if they fall behind early, there doesn’t figure to be any panic on the Seminoles side. Fact is, I’ll be way more concerned if FSU comes out of the tunnel hot as the vulnerability for this team has been early on in games.
It’s tough bucking the ing game experience variable here. That’s decidedly Florida State. But I liked what I saw in the face of adversity last week from Georgia Tech and I have this game looking as though it ought to go right to the wire. It’s by in means a monster upset if the underdog wins, and I’be more surprised if the Yellow Jackets get run over. With the betting line more than a FG, I’m compelled to pink my dollars down on Georgia Tech plus the points.
Bonus Play Saturday 8:00 PM NCAAF
(125) FLORIDA STATE vs. (126) GEORGIA TECH
Take: (126) GEORGIA TECH +4
Florida State is still standing with the perfect record and regardless of how fortunate they’ve been, the fact remains they will have earned their way into the playoff if they can win once more tonight.
But for the Seminoles to maintain the unbeaten slate, it also stands to reason they’re likely going have to play their best game of the season to date to survive this challenge. Florida State has beaten some solid squads. Onnly three wins, aside from the non-FBC game with Citadel, have come against teams I’ve got currently rated outside the Top 50, so it’s not as though they’ve been barely getting past a collection of bums. Lucky to some extent, sure. But some of the criticism being hurled at this Seminoles team is laughable. They’re damn good, and when a team manages to find a way to win every game, they’re probably better than most think.
That said, the Georgia Tech entry the ‘Noles will duel tonight is the best team they’ve faced all season. Paul Johnson has the Ramblin ‘Wreck playing terrific football down the stretch. Don’t be misled by the OT win against Georgia last week. The Yellow Jackets dominated that football game, and if not for a highly disputable officiating decision that resulted in a probably 14-point swing in Georgia’s favor, this game would not have been close.
Fundamentally, Georgia Tech has a good chance to exploit the Florida State defensive front, which while hardly a sieve, has not been a shutdown unit either. The Yellow Jackets will be without their best wideout, who’s also a terrific blocker, and that’s a concern, but the have depth at that spot and should be able to handle the loss.
Jameis Winston has been mistake prone. He’s rallied the troops on several occasions with some huge second halves, but in a game of this type, Winston needs to cut down on his mistakes. Giving a huge end ball control offense such as the one Georgia Tech owns would be potentially disastrous.
As far as the numbers go, I’ve got these teams very close. On a neutral field, I have Florida State two points better than the Yellow Jackets. That’s not a big swing from where the actual line is. But when it’s a small betting line, even a one or two point edge can be of significance.
The pressure here is on Florida State. They’re used to it, however, and even if they fall behind early, there doesn’t figure to be any panic on the Seminoles side. Fact is, I’ll be way more concerned if FSU comes out of the tunnel hot as the vulnerability for this team has been early on in games.
It’s tough bucking the ing game experience variable here. That’s decidedly Florida State. But I liked what I saw in the face of adversity last week from Georgia Tech and I have this game looking as though it ought to go right to the wire. It’s by in means a monster upset if the underdog wins, and I’be more surprised if the Yellow Jackets get run over. With the betting line more than a FG, I’m compelled to pink my dollars down on Georgia Tech plus the points.
Jim Feist
Comp NBA Pick for Saturday, December 6, 2014: 7:35 PM ET
(501) PHILADELPHIA 76ERS VS (502) DETROIT PISTONS
Take: (501) PHILADELPHIA 76ERS
Reason: Your Bonus Play for Saturday, December 6, 2014 is in the NBA scheduled game between the 76ers and Pistons in Detroit. Philadelphia has had a terrible start but they are not devoid of talent, led by . Michael Carter-Williams. Williams had 20 points, nine rebounds and nine assists as the 76ers avoided matching the worst start in NBA history with a win at Minnesota. Carter-Williams is averaging a triple-double over the last four games with 20 points, 10 boards and 10 assists. The 76ers are 17-7 ATS in their last 24 vs. the Eastern Conference and face a bad Detroit team that is 28th in scoring and assists. The Pistons are 16-34-1 ATS against the Eastern Conference and 7-19 ATS in their last 26 home games. Play the 76ers!
Comp NBA Pick for Saturday, December 6, 2014: 7:35 PM ET
(501) PHILADELPHIA 76ERS VS (502) DETROIT PISTONS
Take: (501) PHILADELPHIA 76ERS
Reason: Your Bonus Play for Saturday, December 6, 2014 is in the NBA scheduled game between the 76ers and Pistons in Detroit. Philadelphia has had a terrible start but they are not devoid of talent, led by . Michael Carter-Williams. Williams had 20 points, nine rebounds and nine assists as the 76ers avoided matching the worst start in NBA history with a win at Minnesota. Carter-Williams is averaging a triple-double over the last four games with 20 points, 10 boards and 10 assists. The 76ers are 17-7 ATS in their last 24 vs. the Eastern Conference and face a bad Detroit team that is 28th in scoring and assists. The Pistons are 16-34-1 ATS against the Eastern Conference and 7-19 ATS in their last 26 home games. Play the 76ers!
Red Dog Sports
Ottawa Senators vs. Pittsburgh Penguins
Bonus Play Under 5.5
Ottawa's last 3 road games have stayed under and their last five Free pick on under 5.5games have seen 3, 5, 5, 5 and 5 goals scored. Pittsburgh's last three games have reached 3, 1 and 5 goals. The Penguins have seen 6 of their last 7 Saturday games stay under. Hopefully, we see a 3-2 final score that stays under 5.5.
Ottawa Senators vs. Pittsburgh Penguins
Bonus Play Under 5.5
Ottawa's last 3 road games have stayed under and their last five Free pick on under 5.5games have seen 3, 5, 5, 5 and 5 goals scored. Pittsburgh's last three games have reached 3, 1 and 5 goals. The Penguins have seen 6 of their last 7 Saturday games stay under. Hopefully, we see a 3-2 final score that stays under 5.5.
Jimmy Boyd
SMU vs. Connecticut
Free Pick on SMU Mustangs +
This is without a doubt the least intriguing game on Saturday, but I think there's some great value here with SMU. Oddsmakers have inflated this line, knowing that the public has made a killing fade the Mustangs this season and won't be trusting their money on a team like SMU even against a bad Connecticut team.
The big key here is that this isn't just another game for the Mustangs. SMU is going to be highly motivated to avoid going 0-12. On the flip side of this, there's little to no reason for the Huskies to get excited about this game. Outside of a shocking upset at home against UFC, Connecticut's only other win is against Stony Brook and they barely escaped with a 19-16 win. Simply put, this isn't a team that should be laying double-digits.
It's also worth noting that since that big win over the Knights, Connecticut has failed to cover a single spread. They lost 21-35 to Army as a 5-point favorite, 0-41 to Cincinnati as a 9.5-point dog and 10-41 at Memphis as a 24-point dog. Add it up and the Huskies have lost to the number by a combined 57.5 points in their last 3 games.
One of the things that I think gets overlooked with SMU is the fact that they have played an absolutely brutal schedule. Their non-conference schedule featured games against Baylor, Texas A&M and TCU. They also had to face each of the top 5 teams in the American Athletic, as they missed out on playing Temple and Tulane in conference play.
In their only two AAC games against a team from the bottom half of the conference were at Tulsa and at home against South Florida. The Mustangs covered both of those games, losing by just 10-points at Tulsa as a 14-point underdog and 1-point at home to South Florida as a 10-point underdog.
While SMU has really struggled defensively this year, this is one team they can be competitive against. The Huskies are 125th in the country in total offense (273.8 ypg) and 126th in scoring (15.1 ppg). Adding to this is the fact that Connecticut is 0-6 ATS over the last 2 seasons against bad defensive teams who are allowing 34 or more points/game and have lost these contests by an average of 12.5 ppg.
There's a strong system in play backing the Mustangs. Road underdogs after a loss by 21 or more points against an opponent that has scored 7 points or less in the 1st half in each of their last two games are 52-23 ATS over the last 10 seasons. That's a 69% system in favor of the Mustangs. Take SMU!
SMU vs. Connecticut
Free Pick on SMU Mustangs +
This is without a doubt the least intriguing game on Saturday, but I think there's some great value here with SMU. Oddsmakers have inflated this line, knowing that the public has made a killing fade the Mustangs this season and won't be trusting their money on a team like SMU even against a bad Connecticut team.
The big key here is that this isn't just another game for the Mustangs. SMU is going to be highly motivated to avoid going 0-12. On the flip side of this, there's little to no reason for the Huskies to get excited about this game. Outside of a shocking upset at home against UFC, Connecticut's only other win is against Stony Brook and they barely escaped with a 19-16 win. Simply put, this isn't a team that should be laying double-digits.
It's also worth noting that since that big win over the Knights, Connecticut has failed to cover a single spread. They lost 21-35 to Army as a 5-point favorite, 0-41 to Cincinnati as a 9.5-point dog and 10-41 at Memphis as a 24-point dog. Add it up and the Huskies have lost to the number by a combined 57.5 points in their last 3 games.
One of the things that I think gets overlooked with SMU is the fact that they have played an absolutely brutal schedule. Their non-conference schedule featured games against Baylor, Texas A&M and TCU. They also had to face each of the top 5 teams in the American Athletic, as they missed out on playing Temple and Tulane in conference play.
In their only two AAC games against a team from the bottom half of the conference were at Tulsa and at home against South Florida. The Mustangs covered both of those games, losing by just 10-points at Tulsa as a 14-point underdog and 1-point at home to South Florida as a 10-point underdog.
While SMU has really struggled defensively this year, this is one team they can be competitive against. The Huskies are 125th in the country in total offense (273.8 ypg) and 126th in scoring (15.1 ppg). Adding to this is the fact that Connecticut is 0-6 ATS over the last 2 seasons against bad defensive teams who are allowing 34 or more points/game and have lost these contests by an average of 12.5 ppg.
There's a strong system in play backing the Mustangs. Road underdogs after a loss by 21 or more points against an opponent that has scored 7 points or less in the 1st half in each of their last two games are 52-23 ATS over the last 10 seasons. That's a 69% system in favor of the Mustangs. Take SMU!
Chip Chirimbes
Louisiana Tech vs. Marshall 12:00 ET
Chips FREE NCAA Winner Marshall
Thundering Herd (-) over LA Tech- I know and understand that when a team loses the way Marshall lost last week that a club rarely comes back after receiving their first loss in their final game. The difference here is that theY are that much better then La Tech and the 'Public' has taken the visitor like the Nerd isn't even going to show up. Watch for the reverse. Take MARSHALL!
Louisiana Tech vs. Marshall 12:00 ET
Chips FREE NCAA Winner Marshall
Thundering Herd (-) over LA Tech- I know and understand that when a team loses the way Marshall lost last week that a club rarely comes back after receiving their first loss in their final game. The difference here is that theY are that much better then La Tech and the 'Public' has taken the visitor like the Nerd isn't even going to show up. Watch for the reverse. Take MARSHALL!
Doc's Sports
SMU vs. Connecticut
Bonus Play from Doc’s Sports. #110 Take Connecticut Huskies over SMU Mustangs (Saturday 12 pm CBSSN)
We have faded the Mustangs all season long with the free pick and have had great success in the process. They are just one game away from making history by going 0-12 and we expect them to accomplish this with flying colors. SMU appears to have already hired a new coach and thus any incentive for the current staff to perform is out the window as they will all be replaced next week. Connecticut is nothing to write home about but they have a first year staff that wants to finish out the season on a high note and will accomplish this by double digits. SMU is 3-8 ATS in their 11 games this season. Connecticut is 16-7 ATS in their last 23 road games against teams with a losing road record. UCONN gets revenge on the field.
SMU vs. Connecticut
Bonus Play from Doc’s Sports. #110 Take Connecticut Huskies over SMU Mustangs (Saturday 12 pm CBSSN)
We have faded the Mustangs all season long with the free pick and have had great success in the process. They are just one game away from making history by going 0-12 and we expect them to accomplish this with flying colors. SMU appears to have already hired a new coach and thus any incentive for the current staff to perform is out the window as they will all be replaced next week. Connecticut is nothing to write home about but they have a first year staff that wants to finish out the season on a high note and will accomplish this by double digits. SMU is 3-8 ATS in their 11 games this season. Connecticut is 16-7 ATS in their last 23 road games against teams with a losing road record. UCONN gets revenge on the field.
Steve Janus
Florida State vs. Georgia Tech
Saturday's Free NCAAF Pick ---Florida State Seminoles -4---
There's a lot of talk about how Georgia Tech is going to win this game and how Florida State isn't one of the 4 best teams in the country. I believe it's resulted in a very favorable line for the Seminoles, who simply refuse to lose. Florida State was never going to be as good as what people expected after what they did a year ago.
The fact of the matter is that when it matters the most this team delivers and I'll take their experience in how to handle this big game over that of Georgia Tech. Keep in mind that only twice all season has Florida State been listed as an underdog of 4-points or less. They won and covered in both of those games, beating Louisville 42-31 as a 3.5-point favorite and Miami 30-26 as a 2-point favorite. The other big key here is that Georgia Tech is not great defensively and are going to struggle to contain this Florida State offense, while the Seminoles strength defensively is their ability to stop the run (3.7 ypg). I look for Florida State to win this game and do so in convincing fashion.
Key Trends - The Seminoles are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games played on a neutral field and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games in the 2nd half of the season. BET FLORIDA STATE -4!
Florida State vs. Georgia Tech
Saturday's Free NCAAF Pick ---Florida State Seminoles -4---
There's a lot of talk about how Georgia Tech is going to win this game and how Florida State isn't one of the 4 best teams in the country. I believe it's resulted in a very favorable line for the Seminoles, who simply refuse to lose. Florida State was never going to be as good as what people expected after what they did a year ago.
The fact of the matter is that when it matters the most this team delivers and I'll take their experience in how to handle this big game over that of Georgia Tech. Keep in mind that only twice all season has Florida State been listed as an underdog of 4-points or less. They won and covered in both of those games, beating Louisville 42-31 as a 3.5-point favorite and Miami 30-26 as a 2-point favorite. The other big key here is that Georgia Tech is not great defensively and are going to struggle to contain this Florida State offense, while the Seminoles strength defensively is their ability to stop the run (3.7 ypg). I look for Florida State to win this game and do so in convincing fashion.
Key Trends - The Seminoles are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games played on a neutral field and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games in the 2nd half of the season. BET FLORIDA STATE -4!
Tony George
Missouri vs. Alabama
Georgia Dome – SEC Championship
Bonus Play Alabama -14.5
Roll Tide fans everywhere are in a frenzy after winning the Iron Bowl with a huge second half comeback against Auburn, but some holes in the defense were exposed there allowing 44 points to a good Auburn team. One thing that is perplexing is the fact that I am unsure whether Missouri, who returns for the second year in this SEC title game, can exploit Bama’s weaknesses.
Missouri has been an enigma wrapped in a riddle all season long for me, and I live in Kansas City and am surrounded by Mizzou fans at all times and have seen all their games, many of them they just flat out won ugly. One simply cannot ignore 2 home losses by Mizzou including a loss to Big 10 bottom feeder Indiana and a 34-0 waxing in their home stadium to Georgia without RB Todd Gurley. Mizzou can be exposed right up the middle against a very tough Bama OL and strong running game and dual threat QB Blake Sims. One thing is for certain out of last week’s results, Arkansas had a big OL and DL, and Mizzou stood toe to toe with them which was surprising to me, in a come from behind home win last Saturday by 7 points. The one consistent thing about Missouri all year is that they find ways to win but I do not think that is enough against the top ranked team in the nation.
Mizzou QB Mauk has finally shown some signs of the brilliance he displayed last year, but it has been an up and down year for him. In a spread attack in the SEC against SEC defenses not as good as Alabama's, they only rank 98th in the nation in passing. The Tigers are without three of their WR studs they had last year and it showed early in the season but one thing Mizzou has done is improve every week this season and learned from their losses, and Gary Pinkel is a good football coach and has experience in big games, none the less he has yet to win a conference championship, and that includes dating back to the Big 12 days against the likes of Oklahoma, Nebraska and Texas. Is Missouri due, yes they are, but this is the toughest task in College Football this weekend, to beat Alabama in the heart of Dixie in Atlanta. The fact Auburn played them wire to wire is not an advantage for Missouri, because Nick Saban will have his team focused after a near debacle, versus trying to keep their head out of the clouds after a blowout win.
Last year Mizzou got shredded by RB Tre Mason in the SEC Title game (he set an SEC record), but this year they face a different threat in WR Amari Cooper for Alabama, as it seems he is uncoverable and can bring any secondary to their knees and in man to man coverage, and with no safety over the top for help, he is deadly, just ask Auburn. Mizzou has serious issues in their secondary with matchups here as speed kills and I think Bama has more of it at skill positions than Mizzou does. I think the speed issue will be a deciding factor in this game, and Mizzou has no answer for WR Cooper (no one does).
Despite a good Mizzou pass rush and 2 very active defensive ends, QB Blake Sims will not stay in the pocket under pressure and has the ability to scramble and buy time, break big runs, convert third downs, and stretch the field against a very suspect LB unit of the Tigers. Mizzou cannot trade punches on the scoreboard here and they cannot shut down Bama altogether which would rightfully concern anyone who is willing to take the points here. The Crimson Tide have allowed over 23 points on defense only once in their last 10 games and that was last week against an offense better than the Tigers have.
Considering strength of schedule is crucial here and Alabama has ran the gauntlet, and the one common opponent here to look at is Texas A&M, Mizzou beat them by 7 and Bama rolled them by a score of 59-0 and had third stringers in at the start of the third quarter. There is no argument that the Tigers side of the SEC schedule is very soft and the best team they played all year was Georgia and they got beaten badly. Mizzou’s spread attack is not as good as previous editions and their greatest strength is running it and using RB Murphy to break big plays, but Bama’s strength is stopping the run, ranked number 2 in the nation at doing so. That is another key in this game, if Mizzou cannot run it, and have a below average passing game, how do they stay close unless Alabama turns it over 5 or 6 times, and that is highly unlikely.
At days end I would not call this a total mismatch because no team gets to the SEC Title game by accident, but Alabama is battle tested against the toughest teams in the SEC and Missouri is not, and the pure physical nature of Alabama and speed at skill positions, along with the fact Nick Saban knows how to win championships and Gary Pinkel has yet to win one also plays a role. I think the inconsistencies in Missouri’s team will get exposed against a superior team on Saturday Night despite the fact they have rightfully earned this chance at redemption from last year’s loss in this same game.
The Tigers will come in with their ears pinned back with nothing to lose and that is always a dangerous team to contend with, but Alabama is flat out better and poised for a national title again this year. I doubt Alabama shows up flat here and will not take Missouri lightly, and at days end I think they pull away late and not only get the win but the cover.
Alabama by 17 – Lay the Points
Missouri vs. Alabama
Georgia Dome – SEC Championship
Bonus Play Alabama -14.5
Roll Tide fans everywhere are in a frenzy after winning the Iron Bowl with a huge second half comeback against Auburn, but some holes in the defense were exposed there allowing 44 points to a good Auburn team. One thing that is perplexing is the fact that I am unsure whether Missouri, who returns for the second year in this SEC title game, can exploit Bama’s weaknesses.
Missouri has been an enigma wrapped in a riddle all season long for me, and I live in Kansas City and am surrounded by Mizzou fans at all times and have seen all their games, many of them they just flat out won ugly. One simply cannot ignore 2 home losses by Mizzou including a loss to Big 10 bottom feeder Indiana and a 34-0 waxing in their home stadium to Georgia without RB Todd Gurley. Mizzou can be exposed right up the middle against a very tough Bama OL and strong running game and dual threat QB Blake Sims. One thing is for certain out of last week’s results, Arkansas had a big OL and DL, and Mizzou stood toe to toe with them which was surprising to me, in a come from behind home win last Saturday by 7 points. The one consistent thing about Missouri all year is that they find ways to win but I do not think that is enough against the top ranked team in the nation.
Mizzou QB Mauk has finally shown some signs of the brilliance he displayed last year, but it has been an up and down year for him. In a spread attack in the SEC against SEC defenses not as good as Alabama's, they only rank 98th in the nation in passing. The Tigers are without three of their WR studs they had last year and it showed early in the season but one thing Mizzou has done is improve every week this season and learned from their losses, and Gary Pinkel is a good football coach and has experience in big games, none the less he has yet to win a conference championship, and that includes dating back to the Big 12 days against the likes of Oklahoma, Nebraska and Texas. Is Missouri due, yes they are, but this is the toughest task in College Football this weekend, to beat Alabama in the heart of Dixie in Atlanta. The fact Auburn played them wire to wire is not an advantage for Missouri, because Nick Saban will have his team focused after a near debacle, versus trying to keep their head out of the clouds after a blowout win.
Last year Mizzou got shredded by RB Tre Mason in the SEC Title game (he set an SEC record), but this year they face a different threat in WR Amari Cooper for Alabama, as it seems he is uncoverable and can bring any secondary to their knees and in man to man coverage, and with no safety over the top for help, he is deadly, just ask Auburn. Mizzou has serious issues in their secondary with matchups here as speed kills and I think Bama has more of it at skill positions than Mizzou does. I think the speed issue will be a deciding factor in this game, and Mizzou has no answer for WR Cooper (no one does).
Despite a good Mizzou pass rush and 2 very active defensive ends, QB Blake Sims will not stay in the pocket under pressure and has the ability to scramble and buy time, break big runs, convert third downs, and stretch the field against a very suspect LB unit of the Tigers. Mizzou cannot trade punches on the scoreboard here and they cannot shut down Bama altogether which would rightfully concern anyone who is willing to take the points here. The Crimson Tide have allowed over 23 points on defense only once in their last 10 games and that was last week against an offense better than the Tigers have.
Considering strength of schedule is crucial here and Alabama has ran the gauntlet, and the one common opponent here to look at is Texas A&M, Mizzou beat them by 7 and Bama rolled them by a score of 59-0 and had third stringers in at the start of the third quarter. There is no argument that the Tigers side of the SEC schedule is very soft and the best team they played all year was Georgia and they got beaten badly. Mizzou’s spread attack is not as good as previous editions and their greatest strength is running it and using RB Murphy to break big plays, but Bama’s strength is stopping the run, ranked number 2 in the nation at doing so. That is another key in this game, if Mizzou cannot run it, and have a below average passing game, how do they stay close unless Alabama turns it over 5 or 6 times, and that is highly unlikely.
At days end I would not call this a total mismatch because no team gets to the SEC Title game by accident, but Alabama is battle tested against the toughest teams in the SEC and Missouri is not, and the pure physical nature of Alabama and speed at skill positions, along with the fact Nick Saban knows how to win championships and Gary Pinkel has yet to win one also plays a role. I think the inconsistencies in Missouri’s team will get exposed against a superior team on Saturday Night despite the fact they have rightfully earned this chance at redemption from last year’s loss in this same game.
The Tigers will come in with their ears pinned back with nothing to lose and that is always a dangerous team to contend with, but Alabama is flat out better and poised for a national title again this year. I doubt Alabama shows up flat here and will not take Missouri lightly, and at days end I think they pull away late and not only get the win but the cover.
Alabama by 17 – Lay the Points
Joseph D'Amico
Kansas State vs. Baylor
Bonus Play Kansas State (Game 117).
The Wildcats rediscovered their running game last week, rushing for 194 yards in the teams, 51-13 demolishing of rival, Kansas. But make no mistake of it, the difference in this matchup will be the deadly accurate passing of Jake Waters. The quarterback has a 64.9% CR, 2863YP, and 18 touchdowns against just 5 interceptions. Which ure-handed receivers, Locket and Sexton (2133YR and 13 TD's) the Wildcats air assault will take full advantage of the 103RD ranked pass defense of the Bears. Baylor QB, Bryce Petty was carted off in last week's Texas Tech two point win. If Petty plays, he must face a tough, K State stop-unit that yields a mere 20.3 PPG, helping the team to cover 8 of their L9 contests. If Petty doesn't go, the Baylor "O" is in the hands of soph quarterback, Seth Wilson. Either way the Bears were unable to cover Big 12 home games against TCU and Oklahoma State. The underdog is 4-0 ATS the L4 meetings in this series. The Wildcats are 4-1 ATS the L5 meetings with the Bears and 37-13-1 ATS their L51 Conference games. Take Kansas State. Thank you.
Kansas State vs. Baylor
Bonus Play Kansas State (Game 117).
The Wildcats rediscovered their running game last week, rushing for 194 yards in the teams, 51-13 demolishing of rival, Kansas. But make no mistake of it, the difference in this matchup will be the deadly accurate passing of Jake Waters. The quarterback has a 64.9% CR, 2863YP, and 18 touchdowns against just 5 interceptions. Which ure-handed receivers, Locket and Sexton (2133YR and 13 TD's) the Wildcats air assault will take full advantage of the 103RD ranked pass defense of the Bears. Baylor QB, Bryce Petty was carted off in last week's Texas Tech two point win. If Petty plays, he must face a tough, K State stop-unit that yields a mere 20.3 PPG, helping the team to cover 8 of their L9 contests. If Petty doesn't go, the Baylor "O" is in the hands of soph quarterback, Seth Wilson. Either way the Bears were unable to cover Big 12 home games against TCU and Oklahoma State. The underdog is 4-0 ATS the L4 meetings in this series. The Wildcats are 4-1 ATS the L5 meetings with the Bears and 37-13-1 ATS their L51 Conference games. Take Kansas State. Thank you.
Scott Spreitzer
Wisconsin vs. Ohio State
Bonus Play Ohio State
I'm recommending a play on Ohio State plus the points on Saturday. The first question for me when handicapping this game was whether or not the loss of J.T. Barrett was worth a TD or more to the point-spread? When I jumped into it, I looked at the five quality defenses Ohio State has played this season, including Virginia Tech, Penn State, Michigan State, Minnesota, and Michigan. Barrett completed 65-of-120 passes in those games, for 969 yards. That's a not-so-hot completion rate of just 54%, with 9 TD passes and 6 INTs. Those aren't exactly bust-out, Heisman-hopeful numbers and led me to the conclusion that maybe Barrett wasn't as impressive as the non-betting media leads us to believe. The "drop-off" to Jones might not be all that much, after all. Plus, not only is Jones a powerful runner at QB, standing 6'5 and weighing 250-lbs., but I also expect to see Jalin Marshall behind center a few times, making this past week of preparation, just a little more involved for the Badger defense. Meanwhile, the Buckeye defense will face a one-dimensional Wisconsin offense. Slow down the ground game and put the onus of the offense on Stave's arm. And we should note Wisconsin's passing game ranks 119th in the nation. Simply put - I don't believe the line adjustment is completely warranted and I'm grabbing the points with Ohio State on Saturday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
Wisconsin vs. Ohio State
Bonus Play Ohio State
I'm recommending a play on Ohio State plus the points on Saturday. The first question for me when handicapping this game was whether or not the loss of J.T. Barrett was worth a TD or more to the point-spread? When I jumped into it, I looked at the five quality defenses Ohio State has played this season, including Virginia Tech, Penn State, Michigan State, Minnesota, and Michigan. Barrett completed 65-of-120 passes in those games, for 969 yards. That's a not-so-hot completion rate of just 54%, with 9 TD passes and 6 INTs. Those aren't exactly bust-out, Heisman-hopeful numbers and led me to the conclusion that maybe Barrett wasn't as impressive as the non-betting media leads us to believe. The "drop-off" to Jones might not be all that much, after all. Plus, not only is Jones a powerful runner at QB, standing 6'5 and weighing 250-lbs., but I also expect to see Jalin Marshall behind center a few times, making this past week of preparation, just a little more involved for the Badger defense. Meanwhile, the Buckeye defense will face a one-dimensional Wisconsin offense. Slow down the ground game and put the onus of the offense on Stave's arm. And we should note Wisconsin's passing game ranks 119th in the nation. Simply put - I don't believe the line adjustment is completely warranted and I'm grabbing the points with Ohio State on Saturday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
Doug Upstone
Iowa State vs. TCU
Bonus Play TCU
Play Against a road team like IOWA ST, out-rushed by their opponents by 1.25 or more yards a carry on the season, after allowing 6.5 or more rushing yards per attempt in two straight games. This is nothing but bad news for the Cyclones, getting hammered and facing a team like TCU that needs an impressive win to lock down their position for the bowl committee. Expect this to get ugly early and often with teams Iowa State 6-30 ATS in this spot.
Iowa State vs. TCU
Bonus Play TCU
Play Against a road team like IOWA ST, out-rushed by their opponents by 1.25 or more yards a carry on the season, after allowing 6.5 or more rushing yards per attempt in two straight games. This is nothing but bad news for the Cyclones, getting hammered and facing a team like TCU that needs an impressive win to lock down their position for the bowl committee. Expect this to get ugly early and often with teams Iowa State 6-30 ATS in this spot.
Joe Gavazzi
Kansas St. at Baylor (-7.5) 7:45 ET ESPN
Bonus Play Kansas St. (+7.5)
The potential of Baylor playing without QB Petty this week, makes this a very interesting match-up. Remember that the Bears led lowly Texas Tech (45-20) prior to Petty’s injury last week. When the dust cleared, Baylor survived 48-46, but not before their defense allowed TTRR to put up 707 yards. Simply cannot ignore the Baylor numbers on this field where they are 18-3 ATS, averaging 54 PPG this season. Nor can we ignore the 52 PPG that Baylor has averaged in their last 28 games. On the other sideline is wily KC HC Snyder, whose 2 losses this season, to TCU and Auburn, have precluded his team’s inclusion in the national title conversation. Nonetheless, plenty of motivation for Snyder’s Wildcats, who play with 35-25 revenge from last year and the following numbers. Under HC Snyder, the Wildcats are on long-term runs of 33-12 ATS and 13-4 ATS on the road in the regular season. In good current form at 7-1 SU, they dominated rival Kansas last week (51-13) with a 505-197 yardage edge. Whether Petty plays or not, Snyder will thrive in the role of spoiler.
Kansas St. at Baylor (-7.5) 7:45 ET ESPN
Bonus Play Kansas St. (+7.5)
The potential of Baylor playing without QB Petty this week, makes this a very interesting match-up. Remember that the Bears led lowly Texas Tech (45-20) prior to Petty’s injury last week. When the dust cleared, Baylor survived 48-46, but not before their defense allowed TTRR to put up 707 yards. Simply cannot ignore the Baylor numbers on this field where they are 18-3 ATS, averaging 54 PPG this season. Nor can we ignore the 52 PPG that Baylor has averaged in their last 28 games. On the other sideline is wily KC HC Snyder, whose 2 losses this season, to TCU and Auburn, have precluded his team’s inclusion in the national title conversation. Nonetheless, plenty of motivation for Snyder’s Wildcats, who play with 35-25 revenge from last year and the following numbers. Under HC Snyder, the Wildcats are on long-term runs of 33-12 ATS and 13-4 ATS on the road in the regular season. In good current form at 7-1 SU, they dominated rival Kansas last week (51-13) with a 505-197 yardage edge. Whether Petty plays or not, Snyder will thrive in the role of spoiler.
Marc Lawrence
Houston vs. Cincinnati
Play - Houston Cougars.
Edges - Cougars: 5-0 ATS conference road dogs under head coach Tony Levine. Bearcats: 0-3 SUATS in games off a SU win in which they scored 14 or less points; and 2-4-1 ATS last five final home games of the season. With the Cougs looking for an 8th win on the season, and looking to avenge a 24-17 home loss in this series last season, we recommend a 1-unit play on Houston. Thank you and good luck as always.
Houston vs. Cincinnati
Play - Houston Cougars.
Edges - Cougars: 5-0 ATS conference road dogs under head coach Tony Levine. Bearcats: 0-3 SUATS in games off a SU win in which they scored 14 or less points; and 2-4-1 ATS last five final home games of the season. With the Cougs looking for an 8th win on the season, and looking to avenge a 24-17 home loss in this series last season, we recommend a 1-unit play on Houston. Thank you and good luck as always.
