Saturday 12/6/14 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Meadowlands: Saturday 12/6 Analysis
By Derick Giwner

DRF HARNESS

Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 3 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Race 7 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

MEET STATS: 17 - 78 / $81.00 BEST BETS: 3 - 5 / $10.00

Best Bet: FRANZO (2nd)

Spot Play: BETTOR THAN YOU (8th)


Race 1

(2) HRUBYS N LUCK has some success here during the winter months and picks up Pierce off a decent tightening mile at Freehold. (1) RELENTLESS DREAMER is a closer that needs the perfect conditions to score. He finds a soft field this week; dangerous. (5) TAKESHIGEMICHI should leave and sit a good trip.

Race 2

(1) FRANZO looks like the clear one to beat if you excuse the break in the Breeders Crown; huge class relief. (2) WESTERN WEAR posted a strong qualifier and followed that up with a nice victory to start his career. (8) ROYAL KEE WEE N should flash early speed and get a nice piece.

Race 3

(1) UNTOUCHABLE ONE ships in from Saratoga but should fit nicely with this group. Gelding has won 23 of 54 career races. (7) NASSAU COUNTY has been fairly consistent; shows speed? (9) WHITTAKER & (10) NUCLEAR ENEMY have the early zip to overcome the outside draw.

Race 4

(8) LET’S FOAL AROUND showed earlier in the year that he can compete on the big track. There are no standouts in this group and this guy can go a long way on the engine if ready off the layoff. (4) BETTOR BELIEVE IT was competitive prior to the break last time. (3) CHEYENNE SEEBER finished a credible second two starts back in a similar race.

Race 5

(5) JACK ATTACK was used up in the early pace while tackling much better foes. Three-year-old drops to the basement condition this week and should be sharper in his second start since June. (1) MAJOR BOMBAY hasn’t been really good in some time, but does have plenty of back class. If he brings his best, he wins. (4) FOUR STARZZZ Z comes off a good effort for Burke/Gingras.

Race 6

(9) GOLDEN RECEIVER raced better than I expected in a narrow defeat last time. He’ll make the top and can take these to the wire. (3) WAKE UP PETER draws inside his main rivals and can use that to his advantage. (8) SPEED AGAIN & (7) SANTA FE BEACHBOY are two sharp Ron Burke trainees; clear players.

Race 7

(5) DRAGON LORE couldn’t have looked any better winning against a softer group last week. I’m willing to stick with him despite the stiffer competition. (3) HERE COMES SWIFTY closed nicely in his first start since early September. Four-year-old has some ability. (8) K-LEES SHAKENBAKE closed well most recently and would be no surprise in this spot. (6) LONEWOLF CURRIER has been slowly getting better each week. He could wake up with a huge mile at any time.

Race 8

(5) BETTOR THAN YOU couldn’t quite get the job done from the outside post last week, but was only beaten by 1 1/2 lengths. Don’t be surprised to see him much closer to the pace this week. (6) AMERICAN RAGE is a quality pacer with plenty of class. (8) SHOOTER’S DREAM has plenty of form on his side.

Race 9

(4) MIGHTY YOUNG JOE raced okay from the back of the pack last week and figures to be forwardly placed this time in a field lacking a ton of early speed. (7) ROAR drops down a notch; needs a live trip. (6) EXPENSIVE TOY comes off a win versus easier foes. (3) BLATANTLY BEST had pace while in traffic most recently.

Race 10

(9) SPARKY MARK was used up early last time. He’ll likely be on the move off the gate again, but the drop from B-1 to B-2 should braven him up. (7) FIVEKNUCKLESHUFFLE arrives from Balmoral for a new barn. This guy likes to win and has a shot with the right trip. (1) DEDI’S DRAGON will likely go off the favorite from the inside post; clear threat.

Race 11

(6) PIECE OF THE ROCK failed to fire late last time, but I like him better on the engine and this looks like a better spot for those tactics. (3) ROCKNROLL JEWEL should be close to the pace; upset chance. (4) BOBJACKS ANGLE A will be involved if the pace winds up getting too hot.

Race 12

(7) GOLD ROCKS has been racing well and clearly looks like the one to beat. (1) CAPOZZO only finished a couple of lengths behind the top one last time and that was despite closing from last. (3) THE LUNCH PAIL is a decent horse when he brings a good effort; maybe.

Race 13

This race is simply impossible to decipher. None of these horses show any kind of consistent form. (1) MACHIN MONEY never got involved from an outside post last time and could turn it around from the cones. (4) GRATIAS DEO raced okay from post 10 most recently. (2) VISA VIPER is off a race where he made a nice move before tiring late in a pretty quick mile; using. (7) JOKERMAN adds Tetrick.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Saturday 12/6 Analysis
By Matt Rose

DRF HARNESS

MEET STATS: 359 - 1046 / $1891.50 BEST BETS: 57 - 85 / $185.20

Best Bet: TAKE IT BACK TERRY (9th)

Spot Play: KIWI IDEAL N (12th)


Race 1

(3) ROCK TO GLORY drops in class and gets some needed post relief for a barn that's been going well of late. (4) LETTUCEROCKU A also drops in class after showing little in his last few starts. (6) HI HO STEVERINO seems to have more class than the rest of these.

Race 2

(5) IDEAL CHAMP got hung the mile last week and understandably tired; there doesn't seem to be a ton of early speed inside of him tonight and Kakaley should consider sending him to the front. (2) FASTLANELUKE draws better and is reunited with Sears. (1) FORTY FIVE RED makes his second start for new connections and he lands in a cozy inside spot.

Race 3

(2) WARRAWEE NEEDY didn't embarrass himself last week versus the best horses in the land and he really should be able to handle these. (3) DELCO ROCKNROLL gets a free ride at this level after winning last week and he was Bartlett's pick over my top choice. (4) SKY IS THE LIMIT was game in defeat last out, getting collared by a classy rival.

Race 4

(3) BULLET BOB drops back to the level where he went wire-to-wire five back; to the front. (6) FOREVER JUST was second best upon dropping to this level last week. (1) TWIN B FAMOUS has speed and the best post; stamina appears to be the issue.

Race 5

(4) BJ'S GUY gets another crack at this level off his solid front-end score; he can certainly repeat tonight. (1) MICHAEL'S POWER drops back to the level where he took two straight; he's the one to beat tonight as the likely favorite. (3) HOLDINGALLTHECARDS was in too deep in last week's Open; DiDomenico trainee can go with these.

Race 6

(6) BEACH MEMORIES came up a touch shy last week in his local debut for Burke; Brennan can have him forwardly placed tonight. (3) SAPPHIRE CITY is back in the Open looking for four in a row. (7) MCERLEAN is sharp as a tack but he may have trouble reaching from this outside post.

Race 7

(3) HILLBILLY HANOVER was outgamed late while going first-over upon dropping to this level; Burke's veteran will get the job done tonight. (1) TOWNSLIGHT HANOVER raced decently in his local return and he looms large from this cozy inside post. (2) THIRTY TWO RED also lands an improved post and he should be able to land a share.

Race 8

(4) JONES BEACH lacks the class of others in here but he's been solid since joining the Allard barn and he's got as good a chance as any in this wide-open affair. (5) THE LADIES MAN drops in class and is another Burke trainee that is tough to ignore. (6) EIGHTEEN is back from a brief vacation; why the barn change?

Race 9

(3) TAKE IT BACK TERRY raced well though too far back in his last two local attempts; he returns in a much better spot and should control these. (2) ROCKIN WIZARD had a nice local debut and he can build off that effort. (4) P L FIGHTER had no real excuse last week but his prior efforts were good.

Race 10

(3) STOLEN CAR is not a prolific winner but he's been in decent form and this looks like a pretty live spot. (2) FLEM N EM N has also been going well of late but he's missed a couple of weeks. (4) FOOL ME ONCE has tired on the front end with little excuse in his last two; clearly he can win but it's not easy to endorse him for the top spot.

Race 11

(2) FAT MANS ALLEY should be a little closer to the action tonight and this classy gelding can get the job done. (7) A COOL CARD was a blowout winner last week versus lesser. (4) VERDAD can land a share from this midpack post.

Race 12

(6) KIWI IDEAL N has shown flashes of brilliance recently and Carlson's choice faces nothing special in here. (2) BULLVILLE KYLE flattened late in his last two after closing stoutly in prior efforts; maybe he can show more tonight. (3) SOURCE OF PRIDE should be forwardly placed tonight.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Saturday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Aqueduct (6th) Rico Capote, 4-1
(9th) Jacapo, 3-1

Charles Town (3rd) Cleeway, 9-2
(6th) Noble Abode, 6-1


Delta Downs (4th) Silver Planet, 6-1
(6th) Southern Art, 3-1


Fair Grounds (4th) Starbound, 3-1
(8th) Grand Isle, 3-1


Golden Gate Fields (1st) Open Day Light, 9-2
(9th) Native Heart, 4-1

Gulfstream Park (2nd) Novak, 10-1
(9th) Dreams Cut Short, 10-1


Hawthorne (3rd) Fearless Bypass, 9-2
(5th) Geneva Lake, 5-1


Laurel Park (5th) Coldblack, 7-2
(9th) Concorde County, 3-1


Los Alamitos (2nd) Glorious Rebecca, 5-1
(8th) Kafister, 7-2



Mahoning Valley (6th) Victorious Jet, 9-2
(7th) Best Event, 3-1


Parx Racing (3rd) Speightscity, 9-2
(9th) Profire, 5-1


Penn National (4th) Quality Cat, 7-2
(6th) Pilot Light, 8-1


Remington Park (1st) Bluestem, 9-2
(6th) A Gala Day, 6-1


Sunland Park (8th) Key to the Venture, 4-1
(9th) Omar, 5-1


Tampa Bay Downs (7th) Fuhrious Warrior, 3-1
(10th) Carson's Ten, 4-1


Turf Paradise (6th) Rock Your Baby, 7-2
(9th) Cat's Reality Star, 4-1


Turfway Park (4th) Pesky Cat, 5-1
(7th) Clever Fox, 3-1


Woodbine (7th) Norquay, 3-1
(9th) Midnight Ballet, 3-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NHL Grand Salami - December

The Grand Salami in pro hockey is decided by adding up all the goals scored in every game scheduled for that particular day. You can wager on 'over' or 'under' the Grand Salami total. The total is set by adding up all listed 'over/under' odds for each game on that particular day.

Note: The Grand Salami will have no action if any game is suspended or cancelled before the regulation time of three twenty minute periods. Also, regardless of the number of goals scored during the shoot out portion of the overtime, the final scored recorded for the game will give the winning team on more goal than its opponent based on the score at the end of regulation time.

*The majority of sportsbooks do not put out a total on the Grand Salami when there is only one game on the card. For tracking purposes, we will continue to show the 'over/under' for goals and combined goals scored on days with just one game.

NHL GRAND SALAMI

Date No. of Games Total Goals Combined Goals Scored Result
12/1 5 26.5 31 OVER
12/2 10 55.5 45 UNDER
12/3 4 21 22 OVER
12/4 11 60.5 65 OVER
12/5 3 15.5 24 OVER
12/6 12 - - -

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NHL Preview: Sharks (13-10) at Flames (17-8)

Date: December 06, 2014 10:00 PM EDT

Bob Hartley has endured two tough seasons coaching in Calgary, but his third has the potential to be special if the Flames can continue their stunning start.

Calgary seeks a fifth consecutive victory as it hosts the streaking San Jose Sharks on Saturday night.

The Flames (17-8-2) are one of the NHL's most surprising clubs after finishing second to last in their division during Hartley's first two seasons. They've won eight of 10 after Sean Monahan scored in overtime of Thursday's 4-3 victory over Colorado, which gave Hartley his 400th career victory.

Only Vancouver has more wins than Calgary among Western Conference teams.

Players presented Hartley with a fireman's helmet normally reserved for the game's hardest worker.

'I told them that I'm ready to trade that helmet to see them in the playoffs,' said Hartley, who is trying to guide the Flames to their first postseason appearance since 2008-09. 'I don't know where this season, this story, is going, but it's certainly fun, and it's certainly very entertaining for us, the coaching staff."

Calgary didn't earn its 17th victory last season until Jan. 22, a startling turnaround for a club that has two defensemen - Mark Giordano and T.J. Brodie - among its top three point scorers.

There's also Dennis Wideman, who scored twice Thursday and leads NHL defenseman with 10 goals.

"We're on a pretty good hot streak here," Wideman said. "We keep coming and we find ways to win hockey games. Hopefully we get a little better as the season drags on here of getting leads and holding on to them."

Calgary's run began when Jiri Hudler scored twice - the second an empty netter - in a 2-0 win at San Jose on Nov. 26, the Flames' third straight victory in the series.

Karri Ramo has two shutouts during the streak and has won his last six starts with a 1.82 goals-against average. He made 32 saves against the Sharks, who have won three straight since falling to the Flames.

San Jose (13-10-4) has scored 15 goals in that streak after totaling six while dropping its previous four. It overcame a 2-0 deficit in the first period to win 7-4 over Boston on Wednesday.

'(It) was a good morale boost to fall behind and then come back and really have everybody contribute,' coach Todd McLellan said. 'It was a good thing for our team.'

Tyler Kennedy scored twice after missing the previous two with a lower-body injury, while Joe Pavelski and Tommy Wingles also added two goals apiece. The Sharks have scored four goals on the power play in their last three after going 3 for 22 over their previous eight.

"We feel good about our offense right now," Wingles said. "Everyone wants to be around the net, but we softened up and were in smart areas, a little higher up or off to the side, and we were able to get some goals from it. A few adjustments here and there, but kind of the same style of getting pucks to the net and getting second chances."

Antti Niemi made 20 saves, but it's unclear if he'll get the start in this contest with the Sharks playing at Edmonton on Sunday. He has a 1.60 GAA in his last five against the Flames after allowing one goal on 18 shots in the last meeting, when his four-starting winning streak against Calgary ended.

Ramo has won three straight against the Sharks with a 0.65 GAA.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NHL roundup: Penguins trade Samuelsson to Coyotes
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE

The Pittsburgh Penguins traded defenseman Philip Samuelsson to the Arizona Coyotes in exchange for forward Rob Klinkhammer and a conditional draft pick on Friday.

Klinkhammer, 28, has three goals in 19 games this season. Last season he set career highs with 11 goals and 20 points in 72 games.

Injuries have left the Penguins thin at forward. Pascal Dupuis (blood clot), Chris Kunitz (foot) and Beau Bennett (lower body) are out, and Patric Hornqvist left the Penguins' game Thursday night against the Vancouver Canucks in the second period after a hit by the Canucks' Ryan Stanton.

In 129 games with the Chicago Blackhawks, Ottawa Senators and Coyotes, Klinkhammer has 19 goals and 36 points.

Samuelsson, 23, was a second-round pick by the Penguins in the 2009 draft. He made his NHL debut last season, with five shots on goal and a minus-1 rating in five games.



---The Arizona Coyotes placed center Kyle Chipchura on waivers.

Chipchura, 28, posted a career-high 20 points in 80 games for the Coyotes last year. He has a goal and three points in 16 games this season.

The Coyotes also recalled defenseman Andrew Campbell and forward Jordan Martinook and assigned defenseman David Schlemko to the Portland Pirates of the American Hockey League.


---The New York Islanders, hit hard on the blue line by injuries, lost another defenseman Friday when Travis Hamonic was placed on injured reserve.

Hamonic suffered an upper-body injury against the Ottawa Senators. The move is retroactive to Dec. 2.

In 21 games this season, Hamonic has three goals, six points and 28 penalty minutes and leads the team in hits with 66.

To take Hamonic's place on the roster, the Islanders called up Ryan Pulock, the 15th overall selection in the 2013 draft.


---Longtime enforcer George Parros announced his retirement Friday after nine NHL seasons.

Parros, a 34-year-old right winger, played for five NHL teams -- Los Angeles, Colorado, Anaheim, Florida and Montreal -- during his career. He played in 474 regular-season games, scoring 18 goals and adding 18 assists for 36 points, along with 1,092 penalty minutes.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA Preview: Pelicans (8-9) at Clippers (13-5)

Date: December 06, 2014 10:30 PM EDT

As Blake Griffin's strong effort has helped the Los Angeles Clippers extend a dominant run, Anthony Davis' outstanding play often hasn't been enough for the New Orleans Pelicans lately.

Two of the league's top power forwards meet Saturday night when the Clippers go after a seventh straight victory and the visiting Pelicans try to avoid their fifth loss in six games.

Griffin has scored 25.5 per game on 60.3 percent shooting over a four-game stretch in which Los Angeles has won by an average of 21.8 points. The four-time All-Star finished with 21 points, eight rebounds and six assists despite sitting the entire fourth quarter of a 114-86 rout of Orlando on Wednesday.

The Clippers (13-5) have hit their stride at both ends of the floor during the six-game winning streak. They're averaging 112.0 points and hitting 41.6 percent from 3-point range in that span, while limiting opponents to 93.0 points and 27.7 percent on 3s.

J.J. Redick has made 17 for 38 (44.7 percent) from long range, and Chris Paul has hit 10 for 21 (47.6). Jamal Crawford has missed all eight attempts in the last two games after hitting 16 of 33 in the previous four, but he's totaled 55 points while making 14 3-pointers in his last two against the Pelicans.

Los Angeles also has dished out 65 assists in its past two games, improving to 19-1 in its last 20 with at least 30 assists.

"We've just been moving the ball really well," said Paul, who had 19 points and 10 assists in 29 minutes Wednesday. "Obviously at times, Blake will iso, or I'll iso. But other than that, we've been playing the right way. And we've been building that trust on the defensive end, too. That's where it starts, because we're so dangerous in transition."

Paul, though, set a Clippers record for shooting futility by going 0 for 12 from the field in the most recent meeting as New Orleans (8-9) snapped a six-game losing streak in the series with a 98-96 home win March 26.

Davis hasn't been able to shut down Griffin, who has scored at least 20 points in each of the teams' past five matchups, but is certainly having the better season statistically. The budding star ranks at or near the top of the league in scoring (25.2), field-goal percentage (56.8), rebounding (11.5), blocks (3.1) and steals (2.4).

A former No. 1 overall pick like Griffin, Davis has averaged 28.3 points and 12.7 boards in the last three games while shooting 63.5 percent. He's scored at least 30 in three of his past four road games, though the Pelicans have dropped the last three.

Since averaging 105.6 points during a 5-3 start, New Orleans has scored 95.4 per game while losing six of nine. The Pelicans missed 12 of 15 from 3-point range and committed a season-high 17 turnovers in Thursday's 112-85 loss to Golden State that opened a three-game trip.

"The ball did not move the way it needed to," coach Monty Williams said. "We tried to go 1-on-1 and it looked bad."

The starting backcourt of Tyreke Evans and Jrue Holiday shot a combined 9 of 30 for 23 points. Evans has totaled 15 points on 6-of-30 shooting in his last two road games, and Holiday has shot 36.0 percent in his past three overall.

The Pelicans have dropped six of the last seven against the Clippers at Staples Center, including three straight by an average of 20.3 points.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB

First true road game for Arizona State team that lost pair of 5-point tilts to Maryland/Alabama on neutral KC court, only two top 100 games; Sun Devils are making 43% of 3's (#19) this year. Texas A&M is forcing TOs 24.5% of time (#22); they're 1-1 vs top 100 teams, losing to Dayton by hoop, beating banged-up New Mexico by 13 in Puerto Rico.

Rutgers won three of last four games with state rival Seton Hall; they're 3-0 in last three visits here, winning by 6-5-5 points. Scarlet Knights are 4-3 with three losses by 17+ points; they lost to St Peter's and scored 26 points vs Virginia. 6-0 Seton Hall won both its top 100 games by four points, over Illinois State/GW; they force turnovers 21.8% of time.

First true road game for 7-0 Oklahoma State team that won by 15-13 in neutral court games in Vegas; Cowboys' only top 100 win was by 15 vs Tulsa last week- they're forcing turnovers 23.1% of time (#55). South Carolina is 4-3, 0-3 vs teams ranked above #194; their best win was by #194 North Florida. Gamecocks are shooting only 28.3% from arc.

Quick turnaround for Wisconsin after it got spanked at home by Duke on Wednesday; Badgers lost four of last six visits here, are 3-4 in last seven games with Marquette, winning 70-64 in Madison LY. First road game for Badgers (4-1 vs top 100 teams). 4-3 Marquette won two of three in Orlando, losing to Michigan State by 11; they're 2-2 vs top 100 teams.

Virginia sharpshooter Anderson (17-30 from arc) tweaked ankle in win at Maryland Wednesday, check status; 8-0 Cavaliers have seven wins by 11+ points, with last three at neutral/road sites. VCU outscored Virginia 10-1 over last 2:52 LY in 59-56 win at UVa. Rams split last four games, all at neutral/road sites- they allowed 77-73 points in the two losses.

Indiana State won five of last six games with Ball State, winning last three by 7-20-9 points; home side won 10 of last 11 games- Sycamores' are 1-4 in last five visits to Muncie, winning 68-48 here in '13. ISU lost last three games by 26-10-23 points; they're shooting 27.5% from arc. Cardinals are 1-3 against terrible schedule, turning ball over 22.8% of time.

2-3 Tennessee played four of five games so far at neutral sites; Vols are shooting 26.8% from arc, 61.8% on line- they're rebounding 43.4% of its own misses (#3)- they've got whole new team with new coach, it takes time to form a team. 4-3 K-State lost only true road game by 9 at Long Beach; they lost two of last three on Maui, beating Purdue.

7-0 Arizona won its last two games on Maui by total of six points; they drilled Gonzaga 84-61 in second round of NCAAs LY, forcing 21 TOs (+15) in game that was 47-34 at half. 7-0 Zags won first road game by 7 at St John's last week, after beating Georgia by 12 on same court- they're shooting 59% inside arc, 38.8% outside it. This is best game of the day.

Syracuse won last nine games with St John's, beating old Big East rivals by 25-18-5 points in last three meetings. Red Storm lost last six visits to Carrier Dome (3-3 vs spread); this is their first game away from home- they're 1-1 vs top 100 teams, losing to Gonzaga by 7 in MSG. Syracuse is down this year, losing two of first three games vs top 100 teams.

Wake Forest is 4-4 with home loss to Delaware State team that lost by 50 to Iona. NC State won seven of last nine games with Wake, winning last nine played here, last five all by 11+ points. Wake's last two wins in series were by total of 3 points. State lost by 5 at Purdue Tuesday in its first road game; they're 4-0 vs teams outside top 100 (3 wins by 12+).

First road game for Alabama team that split pair in KC, losing to Iowa St by 10, beating ASU by 5; Crimson Tide scored 74+ points in all six of its games- they force turnovers 21.6% of time. Xavier lost last two games by total of 7 points in Fullerton after 5-0 start; they're shooting 59% inside arc, rank #26 in protecting ball, which helps against Bama's pressure.

St Mary's won 82-74 at Boise LY, making 12-23 from arc in game they led by 16 in first half; Gaels are 5-0 this year, all home wins against good (not great) competition- they're making 42.4% from arc. Boise is 4-2 with all four wins vs teams outside top 200; they lost by 24 at Wisconsin, by 6 at NC State 8 days ago, their last game- they scored 54 in both losses.

Canisius won its last three games with Niagara by 7-13-6 points; Griffs won last two visits here, after losing previous nine. Canisius lost three of last four games overall; they're 3-3 despite playing only one home game- they're shooting 37.7% inside arc. Niagara lost four of first five games; its only win was by hoop at St Peter's- they're shooting 38% inside arc.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'College Hoops'

Badgers had their twenty-three game non-conference winning streak snapped at Kohl Center Wednesday as Duke shot a whopping 65.2% from the field, 58.3% from long range against coach Bo Ryan's club, long regarded as a defensive juggernaut. Badgers 7-1 (6-2 ATS) are doing a solid job putting points on the board (74.0) and despite last effort still doing great work on defense (54.2). Badgers steaming after the Duke loss get back into the win column when they take on Marquette (4-3 SU/ATS). Golden Eagles haven't been able to slow down the two Big Ten teams they've faced this season allowing an average 76.5 PPG vs OSU, MSU and won't slow down these angry Badgers. Consider Wisky knowing Golden Eagles a cash draining 1-6 ATS L7 on home court, Badgers are 4-1 ATS after a loss, 10-3 ATS away in December including 3-1 ATS in Marquette's back yard.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Big Ten Championship Preview
By ASA

Matchup: Wisconsin Badgers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium – Indianapolis, IN
Date: Saturday, Dec. 6
Time/TV: 8:15 p.m. ET, FOX
Line: Wisconsin -4, Total 53

The Big Ten Championship game takes place at Lucas Oil Stadium on Saturday with Ohio State representing the East and Wisconsin representing the West.

The dynamic of this matchup completely changed with the injury to Ohio State quarterback J.T. Barrett. With Barrett under center, OSU would have likely been a 3-5 point favorite in this game.

Instead, Wisconsin heads into the weekend as a four-point favorite. The dynamic of the matchup may have changed, but the stakes are still just as high for the Buckeyes, who could potentially move into the CFB Playoff top four with a win over the Badgers.

OSU’s Barrett, a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate, broke his ankle in last week’s win over Michigan. Only a handful of quarterbacks were having better campaigns than Barrett, who tallied 2,834 passing yards and 34 pass TD’s & 938 rush yards and 11 TD’s this season.

He’ll give way to third-string QB Cardale Jones, who has shown flashes of brilliance in limited playing time. Jones – a 6’5” 230 LB sophomore – has completed 11-of-19 passes for 121 yards with 2 TD and 0 INT in two years at OSU. He’s a proven running threat as well as he has tallied 334 rush yards on 43 attempts with 1 TD in his two-year career.

Still, most of those stats came in mop-up duty in OSU blowout wins, and it’ll be a completely different atmosphere in Indianapolis on Saturday. He’ll also be taking on a Wisconsin defense that ranks 2nd nationally in total YPG allowed, 2nd in pass YPG allowed, 8th in rush YPG allowed, and 4th in PPG allowed.

No opponent has topped 28 points against the Badgers this season (LSU & Illinois each scored 28 points) while six have been held to fewer than 20 points. The Bucks have scored fewer than 31 points just once this season and that was the 21-35 loss to Virginia Tech on September 6th.

Wisconsin has held opposing rushing attacks to just 103.8 YPG on 3.0 YPC with just three individuals exceeding 100 rush yards. The pass defense has been even better, holding opposing quarterbacks to just 46.4% completions with 10 TD and 6 INT.

They do a great job of getting after the quarterback (35 sacks) and stalling drives (13.3 first downs per game allowed – 1st in the B1G).

OSU’s defense has been tested already with some of the running backs & offensive lines that it has faced throughout B1G play. Michigan State’s Jeremy Langford, Minnesota’s David Cobb, and Indiana’s Tevin Coleman – three of the top RB’s in the nation – all had success against this Ohio State defense. Those three combined for 510 rush yards (170 rush YPG) on 7.1 YPC with 9 touchdowns.

The silver lining in that stat is that despite the success those three had on the ground, OSU won all three of those games by 11.3 PPG. Those previous struggles could be a significant issue with Melvin Gordon on deck this weekend. No opponent, aside from FCS Western Illinois, has had success slowing Gordon. He leads the nation with 2,260 rush yards on nearly 8.0 yards per carry with 29 total touchdowns. He seems to have gotten stronger as the season has progressed as he has tallied at least 200 rushing yards in three of the last four games.

Neither team has a huge situational edge here as Wisconsin has been to Indy twice (’11 & ’12) while Ohio State was here last year. Wisconsin is 2-0 SU, beating Michigan State in 2011 and Nebraska in 2012 while Ohio State lost the B1G Championship to Michigan State last year, 24-34.

OSU has won seven of the last 10 against Wisconsin, but is just 5-4-1 ATS in those games with just +3.4 the average margin (six of 10 games decided by seven points or fewer).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF opening line report: 'Bama causing teaser liability for books vs. Mizzou
By COLIN KELLY

We’re down to the final weekend of college football’s regular season, with huge ramifications, as the four teams that will compete in the first-ever playoff will be decided. There are ostensibly six teams really in the mix – all with one loss except for unbeaten Florida State.

But if a couple of those six slip up on championship weekend, well, it could get pretty crazy – particularly if Missouri can unseat top-ranked Alabama. While other Southeastern Conference heavy hitters fell down around them, the Tigers (10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS) went 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS down the stretch to reach Saturday’s SEC title game. Mizzou capped the regular season with a 21-14 victory over visiting Arkansas as a 2-point home underdog.

For the second year in a row, the Crimson Tide got all they could handle from archrival Auburn, but a huge second half saved ‘Bama’s season in a 55-44 shootout as a 9.5-point favorite. The Tide (11-1 SU, 4-8 ATS) have won seven in a row SU since falling at Mississippi.

John Lester, senior lines manager for bookmaker.eu, isn’t sold on Missouri for the neutral-site game, at Atlanta’s Georgia Dome.

“Mizzou kind of back-doored its way into this game,” Lester said. “The public won’t think the Tigers stand a chance against ‘Bama, so we’ll probably be moving this spread early and often. And we will have a ton of teaser liability on the Tide.”

Florida State Seminoles (-3) vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Defending national champion Florida State hasn’t lost in more than two years – a stretch of 28 games – but the Seminoles have hardly looked pretty this year, especially at the betting window, and their regular-season finale highlighted that fact. The ‘Noles (12-0 SU, 3-9 ATS) struggled to hold off a mediocre Florida squad 24-19 laying 7 points at home.

Georgia Tech (10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS) heads into the ACC championship game – at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, N.C. -- on a five-game SU and ATS surge, capped by a 30-24 overtime win as a hefty 10.5-point pup at Georgia.

“Paul Johnson is a coach that will take advantage if the Seminoles show up with another sloppy performance,” Lester said. “We keep waiting for Florida State to put a complete game together, but good teams find ways to win ugly. Still, we’re expecting a lot of sharp action on the underdog here.”

Oregon Ducks (-13.5) vs. Arizona Wildcats

Oregon’s chase for a championship looked to be derailed when it lost to Arizona 31-24 as a massive three-touchdown home chalk on Oct. 2. But now the Ducks (11-1 SU, 8-4 ATS) get a shot at revenge in the Pac-12 title game Friday night at Levi’s Stadium, the new home of the NFL’s 49ers. Oregon finished the regular season with a 47-19 road drubbing of Oregon State as a 21-point fave.

Arizona (10-2 SU, 5-7 ATS) bested Arizona State 42-35 giving 2 points at home, and got help when UCLA lost to Stanford, putting the Wildcats in the conference title tilt.

“The Ducks get a chance to avenge the Arizona upset from earlier this season, and secure a spot in the playoff,” said Lester, noting Oregon is a healthier unit this time around. “Even though it could be without its center here, the Oregon line is much healthier than it was in the first meeting. Marcus Mariota was not 100 percent then either. I don’t think the Wildcats can win, but they could keep it close.”

Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Wisconsin Badgers (-4)

Ohio State is now down to its third-string quarterback after J.T. Barrett – who rallied the team after it lost Braxton Miller in the preseason – broke his ankle Saturday against Michigan. The Buckeyes (11-1 SU, 7-5 ATS) still notched a 42-28 home victory, but fell short as 21.5-point favorites and will have to start sophomore Cardale Jones in the Big 10 title game at Indianapolis.

Wisconsin (10-2 SU, 5-7 ATS) has won seven in a row SU (4-3 ATS), ending the regular season with a 34-24 victory over Minnesota giving 17 points at home.

“Ohio State is forced to play with a third-stringer under center this postseason. We don’t know a lot about him, but he’s a big-bodied quarterback with some concerns over accuracy,” Lester said. “Wisconsin should try to make the Buckeyes one-dimensional. This is a resilient Badgers team, and because of the Buckeyes’ change at QB, I think Wisconsin gets it done.”

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mid-Major Money: Big profits from NCAAF small conferences
By DOC'S SPORTS

Some of the best betting value in college football is hiding beyond the BCS, in the small conferences. With conference championship week upon us, Doc’s Sports continues to look at the little programs that could help you make big cash.

Team to watch: Boise State Broncos (10-2 SU, 7-5 ATS)

This week: -20 vs. Fresno State

Saturday’s Mountain West Championship is a rematch of an Oct. 17 game, also played on the blue turf of Boise State and won by the Broncos 37-27.

“The teams are both different from where we were,” Boise State head coach Bryan Harsin said in his press conference earlier this week. “[From] five or six weeks ago, we’re a different football team. Guys are just executing and playing at a better level.”

The Bulldogs are 5-0 since beating Fresno State and have scored at least 50 points in four of those five. They had previously scored more than 38 points only once. Jay Ajayi’s role has always been big, but it has consistently expanded as the season has progressed. The junior running back has rushed at least 26 times in six of the last seven games and he has seven straight 100-yard, multi-touchdown performances.

The favored team is 11-2 ATS in the last 13 head-to-head meetings. Boise State is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 against the Bulldogs and 6-1 ATS in the last seven of those contests at home.

Team to beware: Marshall Thundering Herd (11-1 SU, 8-4 ATS)

This week: -12.5 vs. Louisiana Tech

Marshall made its first Conference-USA Championship appearance last year and got blown out 41-24 at Rice. The Thundering Herd have home-field advantage this time around, but there is still reason to be cautious.

Doc Holliday’s squad is coming off its first loss of the season, in which it gave up 738 yards of total offense to Western Kentucky and fell 67-66 in overtime. Marshall will have to bounce back mentally after seeing any chance of a New Year’s Day bowl go up in flames.

Louisiana Tech is in its first C-USA title game (this is just its second season in the conference), but head coach Skip Holtz has been there before. He is the first coach to lead two different teams to the C-USA Championship (won it in 2008 and 2009 with East Carolina).

The Bulldogs lead the FBS with 36 takeaways and 150 points off turnovers. Marshall coughed it up four times against Western Kentucky.

Total team: Bowling Green Falcons (7-5 SU, 5-7 O/U)

This week: over/under 59 vs. Northern Illinois

Friday will mark the second straight MAC Championship between Bowling Green and Northern Illinois. The Falcons scored 47 points in a 20-point victory to win the 2013 title, but their offense has been sputtering—at least by its lofty standards—of late. BGSU scored 31 points or more in three straight games from Sept. 27 through Oct. 11 but has not put up that many in any of its last five outings.

Quarterback Matt Johnson played in just one game before being lost for the season due to injury. James Knapke has a modest 12 touchdowns and 10 interceptions as Johnson’s replacement. Knapke has thrown only two touchdowns in his last five games and does not have a multi-score performance since Oct. 11.

The under is 6-1 in Bowling Green’s last seven overall. It is 5-0 in Northern Illinois’ last five overall.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

College Football: Streaks, Tips, Notes

Wisconsin vs Ohio State December 06, 08:15 EST

Wisconsin (10-2 SU, 7-1 Cnf) square off against Ohio State (11-1 SU, 8-0 Cnf) at Lucas Oil Stadium in this years conference title game. Wisconsin won't make the playoff, but can squash Buckeyes' national-title hopes. Ohio State will be without QB J.T. Barrett and that has oddsmakers giving Buckeyes +4 points of offense. Even with sophomore Cardale Jones taking snaps, wouldn't be quick writing off Buckeyes. Conference games are tough, spotting points within the conference is dangerous. Keep in mind, Urban Meyer's troops are 24-1 against Big Ten opponents under his guidance. Buckeyes have grabbed the cash in 11-of-13 as an underdog and have own the past seven meetings vs Badgers posting a 6-1 SU/ATS record.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mizzou looks for SEC upset

SEC Championship Preview

Missouri Tigers (10-2) vs. Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1)

Line & Total: Alabama -14.5, Total: 49.5
Opening Line & Total: Alabama -14, Total: 48.5

No. 1 Alabama will look to win its second SEC Championship in three years when it takes on No. 16 Missouri this Saturday in Atlanta.

Missouri has quietly had a great season within the SEC with its one conference loss coming against Georgia by a score of 34-0 as 3-point underdogs back on Oct. 11. Since that defeat, the Tigers have won six consecutive games SU (5-1 ATS) by an average of 11.8 PPG. They were underdogs in each of their past three games, including being 2-point 'dogs in their final contest of the season where they took a 21-14 victory at home against Arkansas while outgaining their opponent 423 to 288.

The Crimson Tide are only 4-7-1 ATS, but had another near-flawless campaign with their one SU loss coming against Ole Miss on Oct. 4 by a score of 23-17 as 4-point favorites. Since that defeat, they have ripped off seven straight wins (3-4 ATS). Alabama put together a valiant effort in its final showing of the year against Auburn, defeating the rival Tigers 55-44 as 10-point favorites at home. Auburn actually outgained the Crimson Tide 628 to 539 in the game, but 'Bama outscored the Tigers 21-7 in the final quarter.

These two programs last played in 2012 when Alabama laid a whooping on Missouri by a score of 42-10 as 21-point favorites on the road. The Crimson Tide put up 533 yards in the victory while holding Missouri to a meager 129 yards of offense, including just three yards on 28 rushing attempts. Trends show that the Tigers are 9-1 ATS (90%) after having won six or seven of their previous eight games in the past two seasons while Alabama is 44-24 ATS (65%) in road games after two or more consecutive SU wins since 1992.

On the injury front, HB Russell Hansbrough (ankle) was injured in the last game for Missouri, but is probable moving forward. QB Blake Sims (ankle) is also listed as probable for this one on the Crimson Tide side of the ball.

Missouri’s offense hasn’t been all that great in 2014, putting up 28.6 PPG (70th in FBS) behind 189.9 passing YPG (100th in nation) and 176.0 rushing YPG (57th in FBS). QB Maty Mauk (2,279 pass yards, 22 TD, 11 INT) was great over the final five games of the regular season, averaging 210.4 YPG while throwing 8 TD and just 2 INT.

It will be important that Missouri gets HB Russell Hansbrough (949 rush yards, 9 TD) back in the fold, as he has averaged 5.4 YPC on the year and has gone over the 100-yard mark three times. If for some reason he is slowed by his ankle injury, they do have a legitimate backup in HB Marcus Murphy (747 rush yards, 4 TD) who has three touchdowns in the past two games and has been a viable option in the receiving game with 185 yards on 25 catches (7.4 avg) and a touchdown. WR Bud Sasser (904 rec yards, 9 TD) has scored five touchdowns in the past five games while hitting the century mark in receiving yards three times, as WR Jimmie Hunt (529 rec yards, 7 TD) has been impressive also.

What has gotten the Tigers this far is their defense, which has allowed a mere 19.7 PPG (13th in nation) on the season and have given up 16.5 PPG over the six-game winning streak to end the season. LBs Kentrell Brothers (103 tackles, 5 TFL) and Michael Scherer (100 tackles, 3 TFL) have paired with DLs Shane Ray (12 sacks, 59 tackles) and Markus Golden (8.5 sacks, 62 tackles) to create a tough task for any opposing offense.

Alabama has done well once again with a balanced offense that has tallied 282.6 YPG through the air (22nd in FBS) and 206.8 YPG on the ground (37th in nation) while scoring 36.7 PPG (20th in FBS). QB Blake Sims (2,988 pass yards, 24 TD, 7 INT) had just four picks all year long, but tossed three interceptions in the Iron Bowl. Sims still managed to throw for 312 yards and 4 TD in the impressive win. He’s contributed quite a bit to the run game this year as well, gaining 302 yards on 64 attempts (4.7 YPC) while getting into the end zone six times.

HB T.J. Yeldon (885 rush yards, 8 TD) has added 180 receiving yards (12.0 avg) with a touchdown this season, and is coming off a nice performance (127 rush yards, 2 TD) against Auburn as well. Backup HB Derrick Henry (754 rush yards, 8 TD) would start on most teams and has at least one touchdown in each of the past three games while averaging 5.4 YPC on the year. WR Amari Cooper (1,573 rec yards, 14 TD) has been nearly unstoppable all year long and is coming off his best performance of the season in which he gained 224 receiving yards and three touchdowns against Auburn. He has now gone over 200 receiving yards three times, and over 100 yards another four times while averaging 15.3 yards per catch.

The defense has been equally impressive as the offense, while allowing just 16.9 PPG (6th in FBS) with the 44 points the Tigers scored last week being the highest total of the year. LBs Xzavier Dickson (8 sacks, 35 tackles), Trey DePriest (77 tackles) and Reggie Ragland (84 tackles, 8.5 TFL, 1 INT) will need to continue playing at a high level in order to grab another SEC Championship for the program.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF line watch: Keep a close eye on total for ACC Championship
By STEVE MERRIL

Each week during the college football season, Steve Merril looks at the NCAAF odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now

Houston Cougars at Cincinnati Bearcats (-6.5)

Cincinnati opened as a 6.5-point favorite over Houston, and money has yet to come in on this game. But I do expect Cincinnati money to come in and push this line up to -7 or higher. The Bearcats have won and covered the spread in their last six games, so bettors will be inclined to back Cincinnati once again.

Houston doesn’t have the offensive firepower to trade points with Cincinnati. The Cougars are only averaging 5.4 yards per play despite playing opposing defenses that are giving up 5.7 yards per play. Houston’s defense has good seasonal numbers, but it’s faced an extremely weak slate of opposing offenses. Cincinnati is averaging 35.2 points per game on 6.3 yards per play. The Bearcats are less than a TD favorites with a high-octane offense, so lay the points now before the line goes up.

Spread to wait on

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (+12.5) at Marshall Thundering Herd

Marshall is currently a 12.5-point home favorite versus Louisiana Tech, and I anticipate this line going higher. The Thundering Herd are 11-1 SU and 8-4 ATS and since they’re laying less than two touchdowns, bettors will be inclined to lay the points in this game.

Louisiana Tech is quietly having a good season as it comes into this game at 8-4 SU and 9-3 ATS. The Bulldogs are catching Marshall at the perfect time, with the Thundering Herd coming off their first loss of the season which likely cost them a New Year’s Day bowl bid. This is a huge letdown spot for Marshall after losing 67-66 versus Western Kentucky in overtime last week. Wait this game out and take Louisiana Tech plus the points later in the week.

Total to watch

Florida State Seminoles at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (60.5)

Florida State has played in four straight low-scoring games with point totals of 43, 37, 56, and 54. All four of those games went Under the number. Off their recent four games, the oddsmakers are going to deflate the total on this game by a couple of points, especially since the Seminoles have gone 4-8 Over/Under this season.

Georgia Tech was featured in this space last week as a slow-paced, methodical offense. The game against Georgia still went Under the total despite going into overtime. The Yellow Jackets have gone Under the total in three of their past four games and that recent low-scoring trend coincides with Florida State’s recent game results. If this total drops to the 50s, there will be value on the Over.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Report: SEC title game to move into new Atlanta stadium
The Sports Xchange

The SEC is working on a long-term agreement to play its football championship game in the new Atlanta Falcons stadium, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported Thursday.

The plan calls for the SEC championship game to move into the $1.4 billion retractable-roof stadium in 2017 and remain there through 2026.

"We're not in position to really comment right now, except to say that we are in negotiations and we are encouraged by where we are and certainly anticipate continuing those negotiations," SEC associate commissioner Herb Vincent said, according to the newspaper.

Alabama and Missouri will play Saturday night in the Georgia Dome for the SEC championship. The conference title game has been held there for 21 years and will remain at the dome until it closes after the 2016 season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Big Ten championships going over historically
Justin Hartling

The Big Ten championship has gone over in all three contests at Lucas Oil Stadium. Those three games have totaled an average of 80 points per game, with the lowest scoring team putting up 24 points.

The Buckeyes this season have gone 10-2 over/under this season while averaging 44 ppg. The other sideline will be Wisconsin who went 6-5-1 O/U this season, while holding opponents to a mere 16.8 ppg.

The current total for the Big Ten title game is 52.5.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

FSU defense keeping ACC title games under
Justin Hartling

Florida State has gone to the past two ACC championship games and in both instances the game went under. The under trend is thanks to the Seminoles defense which has held opponents to a combined 22 points in those two games.

FSU and Georgia Tech is currently set at 61.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Total Notes - Week 15
By Chris David

After taking a two-week break for the holidays and start of college basketball, Totals Expert James Manos returns with his insight for the five college football championship games set for Saturday. He offers up his quick handicap on all five matchups and provide his key Line Moves for Week 15.

Conference USA Championship (ESPN2, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Louisiana Tech at Marshall

Manos: This is one conference where the league's two best teams will be facing off for the title. No surprises with this matchup as these have been the conference's two best teams for the entire season. I made the number for this game 67 so there is little value in the currently posted total but I would have been looking to potentially play this game UNDER had I gotten a better number. Last week's results ruined any chance for OVER bettors to get a favorable number as Louisiana Tech won 76-31 while Marshall lost 67-66.

That inflated this number a bit but it may help players looking to bet UNDER as the public may look at last week's results and help drive this number up a bit. A few factors have me believing we may see a lower scoring game than expected.

While the perception is that Marshall has a high flying, fast paced offense (last week's results won't hurt that perception) the reality is that the Thundering Herd has simply relied on its talent level to beat most of its opponents.

Marshall runs 73.8 plays per game which is good for just 63rd in the country. That is down from 80.2 plays per game last year and this will be by far the best defense that they've seen this season. La. Tech has also relied on a weak slate of opponents to boost its offensive numbers as they run just 70.6 plays per game which is good for 91st in the country, and I doubt they want a shootout in this contest.

I think the UNDER will be the play here and 71 would be my "buy" price.

SEC Championship (CBS, 4:00 p.m. ET)
Missouri vs. Alabama

Manos: This total is a bit surprising considering the increased scoring in the SEC this year. However, the presence of Missouri in this game and the reputation of the Alabama defense, likely combined to hold this total under 50.

My question for this matchup would be, how does Missouri score TD's in this game? True, the Alabama defense is down a notch from previous editions but the Crimson Tide still possess NFL talent at most positions and have the game’s best defensive mind (Nick Saban) on the sideline.

The Tigers rely almost solely on the run and being one-dimensional will be tough vs. this Alabama defense. Three times this season, Alabama faced teams with truly one-dimensional offenses. In those games they allowed an average of 8.7 points per game. The Missouri defense played well down the stretch and with a guaranteed playoff berth looming with a victory, Alabama might get very conservative with a lead.

ACC Championship (ABC, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Florida State vs. Georgia Tech

Manos: This total is set correctly and I really want no part of wagering on either side. The Georgia Tech offense has been clicking down the stretch but hasn't faced a defensive front 7 as athletic as the Seminoles often this season. A similar opponent would be Clemson and in that game the Yellow Jackets threw for just 102 yards. Here, they will be without their best receiver and primary passing TD target so those numbers might diminish even further. Georgia Tech does what it does and they are relentless with the option so expect Georgia Tech's offense to be unchanged from previous weeks. My numbers have them rushing for 292 yards which is 42 yards below their season average.

Another slow start by the Seminoles may doom them here as trailing the Yellow Jackets allows them to simply grind out offensive snaps and chew up yards and the clock. Florida State needs to play from lead in this contest, they know that, and that may force them to be very aggressive in the early going. That could lead to an offensive explosion (the 2nd half vs Louisville) or an offensive implosion (the first 10 minutes of the Florida game), I stay far away from this total.

Big 10 Championship (FOX, 8:15 p.m. ET)
Wisconsin vs. Michigan State

Manos: I will keep my analysis of this contest short and sweet. Possibly no handicapper in the country is as upset about the injury to Ohio State quarterback J.Y. Barrett as me, and I'll tell you why. I had been anticipating and expecting this matchup for several weeks and had this total earmarked as a potential Game of the Year play. I think with Barrett, this total would have likely opened at 56.5 or 57 and I would have gladly played OVER either of those numbers for my largest wager of the year. His injury has completely changed the outlook of this game and thrown a wrench into a matchup I had been looking forward to for weeks. I wish young QB Barrett a speedy recovery but, sadly, his injury has ruined this game from a wagering perspective.

In addition, the unfortunate death of Ohio State defensive lineman Kosta Karageorge has added another element of uncertainty to this contest. How will the Buckeyes react to the tragedy? How will backup QB Cardale Jones play with only one week to prepare for one of the nation's best defenses? Can the Badgers throw the ball well enough to take some pressure of Heisman candidate RB Gordon? How severe was the ankle injury that RB Gordon suffered vs Minnesota last week? Too many questions for me to get involved now.

Mountain West Championship (CBS, 10:00 p.m. ET)
Fresno State at Boise State

Manos: Here we get a rematch from a game earlier this season; a game that featured a misleading final. In that contest, the Bulldogs managed to stay within 10 points of Boise despite being dominated at the point of attack and being out-yarded 492-313. Fresno State faced four bowl quality squads this season (USC, Utah, Nebraska, Boise State) and in those games allowed an average of 50.8 PPG and 570 YPG.

Boise State excelled down the stretch averaging 50.6 PPG since its last loss and getting solid QB play from QB Grant Hedrick to balance the power running of RB Jay Ajayi. With the Broncos needing some style points and a comfortable win to help gain a New Year's Day bowl invite, don't expect them to take their foot off the gas with a lead.

My numbers, unsurprisingly, project the Broncos to score 48 points and have an offensive efficiency of 59.2%. I think it's likely the Broncos exceed my projected numbers and blow the Bulldogs out in this contest. Reaching the 68 point total will depend on what you get from Fresno. In the first meeting they relied solely on big plays to score…..big plays that the Boise State defense is no longer surrendering.

Tough to play OVER a total this high in a championship game but I lean that side.


Line Moves

This segment has become a very popular feature of our weekly piece and all the credit should be directed towards Manos, who analyzes the line moves in the totals market for us and breaks them into four categories.

1) Correct Sharp Movement: Missouri/Alabama UNDER

2) Incorrect Sharp Movement: Temple/Tulane OVER

3) Public Movement: Houston/Cincinnati OVER

4) Market Manipulation: Wisconsin/Ohio State UNDER

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Saturday's Title Games

ACC Championship
Florida State Seminoles (12-0) vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (10-2)

Venue: Bank of America Stadium - Charlotte, NC
Kickoff: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET
TV: ABC
Line: Florida State -4, Total: 61

No. 4 Florida State looks for its third consecutive ACC title when it takes on No. 11 Georgia Teach on Saturday night in Charlotte.

The Seminoles have not lost a game SU since Nov. 24, 2012, and have won their games this season by an average of 12.6 PPG. But they are a mere 3-9 ATS, and have allowed each of their past three contests to be very close, winning by just 4.0 PPG against the likes of Miami, Boston College and Florida. FSU was a 6.5-point favorite at home against the Gators in its most recent game last week and won 24-19 despite turning the ball over four times and outgaining its opponent 306 to 282.

The Yellow Jackets have also had a huge season, with their two SU losses coming back-to-back against Duke and North Carolina. Since those defeats, they have a five-game winning streak (both SU and ATS) while defeating both Clemson and Georgia to cap off the regular season. They were the underdog in both of those contests and took down the Tigers by a score of 28-6 as 2-point underdogs at home and then earned a huge victory on the road against the Bulldogs as 10.5-point underdogs, prevailing 30-24 in overtime behind 399 rushing yards (5.7 YPC) and three forced turnovers.

These two programs last met two seasons ago in similar circumstances with the Seminoles captured a 21-15 win as big 15.5-point favorites in the 2012 ACC Championship as the teams combined for only 629 yards of total offense and five turnovers. Georgia Tech failed to score a touchdown in the loss, while Florida State QB Jameis Winston, put up a poor performance with a mere 134 passing yards, 0 TD and 1 INT. Some betting trends to keep an eye on in this one include that the Seminoles are 37-20 ATS (65%) after two or more consecutive losses ATS since 1992, while the Yellow Jackets are 12-3 ATS (80%) after playing their last game on the road in the past three seasons.

Some important offensive players may be missing from this one, as HB Karlos Williams (concussion) is'out' for Florida State while Georgia Tech's No. 1 WR DeAndre Smelter (knee) is also listed as doubtful.

Florida State’s offense has once again been quite impressive this season while putting up 299.1 YPG through the air (13th in nation) and adding 131.1 YPG on the ground, as it has scored 34.6 PPG (31st in FBS).

QB Jameis Winston (3,250 pass yards, 21 TD, 17 INT) has had his issues with turnovers this year and has thrown 11 picks in his past five games, all of which were fairly close contests. But he has connected on 65.1% of his passes for 8.3 YPA, and has gone over 300 yards passing five times.

HB Dalvin Cook (728 rush yards, 7 TD) has been solid with 5.9 YPC and is coming off his highest yardage total (144) last week against Florida. HB Karlos Williams (609 rush yards, 10 TD) is questionable for this championship game, and if he misses the contest, Cook will likely get 20+ carries once again.

WR Rashad Greene (1,183 rec yards, 5 TD) has been the go-to guy through the air as he has seven games of triple-digit receiving yards this year, but is coming off a poor showing against Florida (3 catches, 35 yards).

The defense for the Seminoles has done quite well also while allowing 22.0 PPG (27th in nation) behind the strong efforts of LBs Reggie Northrup (101 tackles, 1 INT) and Terrance Smith (82 tackles, 2 INT).

As usual, the Georgia Tech offense is focused on one thing, and that is rushing the ball using the option. The school has gained 333.8 YPG on the ground (4th in FBS) while adding 135.3 YPG passing with 37.2 PPG (17th in nation).

QB Justin Thomas (1,640 pass yards, 16 TD, 4 INT) has been solid with his passing while not throwing a pick in his past three games as he gets 9.1 YPA. His real skill is running the ball though, and he leads the team with 861 rushing yards (5.2 YPC) while scoring two touchdowns.

There are a ton of different threats that get to rush the ball in this option offense, and 10 different players besides Thomas have more than 100 yards on the ground. The leader of them has been HB Zach Laskey (748 rush yards, 8 TD) who is coming off his best game of the season when he went for 140 yards on 26 carries (5.4 YPC) and 3 TD against Georgia. WR DeAndre Smelter (715 rec yards, 7 TD) is the only receiver on the team with more than 16 catches, as WR Darren Waller (255 rec yards, 4 TD) will take over the role as the top option.

The defense for the Yellow Jackets has given up 24.1 PPG on the year (43rd in nation) as LBs Paul Davis (97 tackles, 4 sacks, 1 INT, 1 TD) and Quayshawn Nealy (84 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 2 INT, 1 TD) lead the way.

Big Ten Championship Game
Wisconsin Badgers (10-2) vs. Ohio State Buckeyes (11-1)

Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium - Indianapolis, IN
Kickoff: Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: FOX
Line: Wisconsin -4.5, Total: 52.5

No. 5 Ohio State will look to remain in national playoff contention on Saturday night as it takes on No. 14 Wisconsin for the Big Ten title in Indianapolis.

Rushing will be the biggest key for the Wisconsin offense, as the team has been dominant when averaging at least 5.5 YPC, going 16-5 ATS when this has occurred in the past three seasons. The Badgers have been even better when rushing for at least 300 yards, going 11-1 ATS in the past three seasons, which is significant because they enter Saturday averaging 334 rushing yards per game (3rd in nation).

They will be facing an Ohio State (7-5 ATS, 10-2 OVER) team that is looking to clinch a spot in the national playoffs, but suffered a huge injury when starting QB J.T. Barrett was lost for the year last week with a fractured ankle. These two schools tend to play low scoring games against each other, as 11 of the last 16 games in this series have finished Under, including the past two.

These two schools did not meet in the regular season this year, but the Buckeyes were able to get a 31-24 victory last year in Columbus. Ohio State did a great job of slowing the rushing attack of the Badgers down that game, holding Wisconsin to only 104 yards (3.9 YPC), including limiting star RB Melvin Gordon to 74 yards.

The Badgers are one of the top rushing teams in the country every year, and this season was no different with more than 230 rushing yards in 10 straight games. While the team has also been able to score as much as nearly any team in college football (37.5 PPG, 15th in FBS), the air attack has had some major problems, ranking 119th in the nation with a mere 147.8 YPG. QB Joel Stave (1,042 pass yards, 8 TD, 4 INT) has been inaccurate all season long (58.1% completions), and has allowed defenses to put an extra defender in the box.

The fact that the rushing game has been so effective is a tribute to the offensive line, as it has done a terrific job of paving the way for the runners. In this game though, Stave will have to at least take some chances deep to try and make the defense respect the passing game. When Stave does throw the ball, his favorite target is Alex Erickson (44 catches, 651 yards, 3 TD). He has nice speed on the outside, and could have an opportunity for the double-move against the Ohio State defense. Last season, the Badgers were able to throw for 295 yards against the Buckeyes, but much of that was because of a big deficit early in the game.

If Wisconsin can find early success through the air, then the star of the team, RB Melvin Gordon (283 carries, 2,260 yards, 26 TD), will have some opportunities to break the big run. He is very shifty when carrying the football, allowing his blockers to get in front of him and create the hole. While he gets a lot of the talk, and rightfully so, RB Corey Clement (127 carries, 830 yards, 9 TD) is more than capable of having a big game. The Badgers use the duo similar to how they used James White and Gordon last year, allowing a guy to finish a drive if he is starting to run the ball well. Wisconsin will be looking to dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, and has the ability to do that on defense.

The Badgers allow only 16.8 PPG (4th in the nation), while not allowing a single team to score more than 28 points. S Michael Caputo (93 tackles, 5 TFL, 4 FR) is the leading tackler on the unit, as he does a great job of stopping the run from his safety position. They have a nice pass-rushing duo of LBs Derek Landisch (8 sacks, 70 tackles, 14.5 TFL) and Vince Biegel (7.5 sacks, 54 tackles, 15.5 TFL). They will look to get pressure early against the Buckeyes, as Ohio State is now down to its preseason No. 3 quarterback.

QB J.T. Barrett (2,834 pass yards, 34 TD, 10 INT) had become a star for the Buckeyes this season, but the injury suffered against Michigan has him out for the remainder of the year. The Ohio State offense currently ranks 5th in FBS scoring (44.1 PPG), 12th in rushing (257.4 YPG) and 41st in passing (246 YPG). Filling in for Barrett will be Cardale Jones, who attempted only 17 passes this year. At 6-foot-5 and 250 pounds, Jones can be very difficult for opponents to tackle, and has nice athleticism, so Ohio State doesn't have to alter its playbook. Luckily for Jones, he has a lot of playmakers on the field, especially in the backfield.

RB Ezekiel Elliot (197 carries, 1,182 yards, 10 TD) is a big powerful running back that has the ability to get to the second level and run away from the defense. He has rushed for at least 100 yards in three of his past four games, and will be looked upon by the offense to help take the pressure of Jones. RB Jalin Marshall (487 total yards, 10 TD) had some fumble problems early in the season, but he is starting to show the potential to be a star.

If Jones is forced to throw the ball, he will be looking to WRs Devin Smith (26 catches, 662 yards, 8 TD) and Michael Thomas (40 catches, 639 yards, 8 TD). Smith is the receiver who the Buckeyes will use to attack deep, while Thomas is more of a possession receiver. With a new quarterback, Ohio State will also look for the defense to play well, as the Buckeyes don’t want to find themselves down big early.

The defense ranks 29th in the nation in points allowed (22.9), but has given up at least 24 points in four consecutive games. Last week, they let a struggling Michigan offense score 28 points and gain 372 yards of offense. The star on the unit is DE Joey Bosa (13.4 sacks, 46 tackles, 20 TFL), who demands a double team on nearly every play. LB Joshua Perry (108 tackles, 8.5 TFL, 3 sacks) is the leading tackler on the team, and he will play a huge role in stopping Gordon.