Saturday 12/5/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: West Virginia Mountaineers (7-4) at Kansas State Wildcats (5-6)

Date: December 05, 2015 4:30 PM EDT

MANHATTAN, Kan. (AP) Earlier this week, it became apparent that as many as five teams with 5-7 records could earn an invitation to a bowl game, and attention naturally shifted to Kansas State.

The Wildcats (5-6, 2-6 Big 12) are preparing for their regular-season finale against West Virginia on Saturday, and would need to win their third straight game to ensure a bowl destination.

But even if they lose, the NCAA Division I council has approved a recommendation that makes 5-7 teams eligible for bowls provided there are not enough six-win teams to fill them. They'll be allotted according to Academic Progress Rate, and Kansas State is positioned just behind Nebraska.

'None of us are even thinking about that,' Kansas State center Dalton Risner said. 'We're going to beat West Virginia this weekend. We're going to be 6-6 and we're going to earn ourselves a bowl game. If you're thinking about 5-7, then you're on the wrong page.'

West Virginia (7-4, 4-4) is less concerned with its bowl aspirations. Those were set in late November with a 49-0 win over Kansas. But the Mountaineers are still playing for their first eight-win season since 2011, a sign that things are headed back in the right direction.

'Doing things that you haven't done in the last couple of years - that is a sign of improvement,' West Virginia coach Dana Holgorsen said. 'It means improvement. It's the name of the game.'

The Mountaineers may be the hottest team in the Big 12 outside of No. 3 Oklahoma, winning four straight after a 40-10 drubbing by then-No. 5 TCU. Yet they are still looking for their first victory over Bill Snyder and Kansas State since joining the conference in 2012.

'They are very well-coached,' Holgorsen said. 'They are a very disciplined football team. The guys play hard. The guys care. It is a family atmosphere. They will be playing as well as they have all year this Saturday. It's their senior day and the last regular-season game.'

As the Mountaineers prepare to meet the Wildcats here are some things to watch:

REPEAT PERFORMANCE

West Virginia quarterback Skyler Howard started on the bench last season when Kansas State visited Morgantown. But after coming on at halftime, he helped the Mountaineers fight back in a close loss, finishing 15 of 23 for 198 yards with a pair of touchdowns.

'I specifically remember this,' Holgorsen aid. 'I looked at him and said, `Are you ready to go?' He said `Let's do this.' I told him to get in there and run the offense, and then he took us down there and scored.'

SPECIAL TEAMS, AGAIN

Kansas State's Morgan Burns was the Big 12 Special Teams player of the week after forcing a fumble on a Kansas punt attempt and then recovering a blocked punt for a touchdown, all in the same quarter last weekend. It was his third consecutive award following back-to-back games with kickoff returns for touchdowns, including a 100-yard scamper against Iowa State.

BALANCED ATTACK

West Virginia has kept opponents guessing this season, averaging 223 yards passing and 242 yards rushing. Running back Wendell Smallwood has seven games of 100 yards or more, and backup Rushel Shell has more yards this season (639) than any Kansas State rusher. Together, the two running backs and Howard have accounted for 36 of West Virginia's 64 offensive touchdowns.

CUSP OF HISTORY

Kansas State is trying to become the sixth Power Five team since 2006 to advance to a bowl after staving off elimination - 2-6 or 3-6 records - in at least three-straight games. 'Where do you guys get this stuff?' Snyder said, when asked about it. 'You have to stay up awful late at night to dig stuff like that up.'

QUOTABLE:

'That's probably 158th on my list of things to worry about.' - Snyder said, when asked if he was in favor of changes so that losing teams couldn't be a part of bowls.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Sam Houston St Bearkats (9-3) at McNeese St Cowboys (10-0)

Date: December 05, 2015 7:00 PM EDT

(STATS) - Sam Houston State used its depth to survive its playoff opener but didn't have enough to overcome a pair of absences last month against McNeese State.

The No. 6 Bearkats could also be missing players for Saturday night's rematch against the unbeaten and third-ranked Cowboys and their stout defense.

Sam Houston (9-3) was down to its third- and fourth-string running backs last Saturday against Southern Utah after Corey Avery and Jalen Overstreet left in the first half. The Bearkats were also forced to use backup quarterback Jeremiah Briscoe when Southland Conference offensive player of the year Jared Johnson was ineffective while playing through an ankle injury.

Sixth-year senior Ridgeway Frank ran for a career-high 137 yards and two touchdowns in a 42-39 victory, and freshman Remus Bulmer had 111 yards on 16 carries. Briscoe, who saw significant playing time earlier this season, passed for 211 yards and the go-ahead touchdown to Yedidiah Louis with 3:44 remaining.

The Bearkats' uptempo offense ran a program-record 118 plays while gaining 579 yards - 344 on the ground.

"It's a deep team, probably as deep of a team as I've ever had, and we expect guys to be able to go in and play when they have an opportunity," coach K.C. Keeler said.

Keeler said that his injured players' statuses might remain unknown until Saturday. The Bearkats had two players suspended, Overstreet and receiver LaDarius Brown, in the week leading up to their visit to McNeese on Nov. 7.

The Cowboys (10-0) kept Sam Houston to a season-low 66 plays and 380 yards in a 27-10 victory that clinched a playoff berth and their first Southland Conference title since 2009.

The Cowboys also held the Bearkats to three points on offense. Sam Houston, among the FCS leaders with 43.7 points and 547.4 yards per game, scored its touchdown on Darion Flowers' 90-yard interception return in the opening quarter.

McNeese is second nationally with 11.1 points allowed per contest and its 280.8 yards yielded per game is good for ninth. The Cowboys also boast the FCS' top rushing defense (78.6 yards per game) and rank among the leaders in time of possession (34:05).

They used their running game to control the clock for 37:34 against Sam Houston while compiling what was then a season-high 305 yards. McNeese topped that with 406 in a 20-14 win at Lamar in the season finale Nov. 21.

Quarterback Daniel Sams led the way with 164 yards in the first meeting and sprinted for a 64-yard touchdown with 1:40 to go in the second quarter. On the Cowboys' ensuing drive, Sams connected with Kent Shelby on a 6-yard TD just four seconds before the half to put his team ahead for good.

"Obviously we understand the challenge that's ahead of us," McNeese coach Matt Viator said. "(Sam Houston is) an extremely talented football team and it was an extremely competitive game the last time we played. A couple of plays here and there was the difference in the game."

The Cowboys have played once since the last meeting. While that rest should serve his team well, Viator is on guard against the proverbial rust that could set in with such relative inactivity.

"It's good to be rested, but it's not good if you're not executing and you're not sharp and you are not doing the things you need to do," he said.

In their league-best 16th playoff appearance, the fourth-seeded Cowboys are seeking their first postseason win since a run to the 2002 national championship game that ended with a defeat to Western Kentucky. They have lost by a combined 190-47 in their last five playoff games - four at home - and fell 31-10 to Jacksonville State in 2013 as a No. 6 seed.

Sam Houston has been one of the FCS' most successful programs in the postseason of late. The Bearkats are one of three teams to make it into each of the last five playoffs and have reached at least the semifinals in three of those trips, including last season.

"I think it's just a mentality that you're in a one-game season," Keeler said. "We thrive in that atmosphere. We don't shy away from it."

Sam Houston has won three of the last five meetings with McNeese but has lost 13 of the past 15 road games in the series.

The Cowboys are facing a Southland team in the playoffs for the first time, while it's the third consecutive year for Sam Houston State. The Bearkats split two matchups with Southeastern Louisiana and won 21-17 in last season's opening round.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Air Force Falcons (8-4) at San Diego State Aztecs (9-3)

Date: December 05, 2015 7:30 PM EDT

SAN DIEGO (AP) After stumbling to a 1-3 start, including big losses at Cal and Penn State, and a mystifying one to South Alabama, the San Diego State Aztecs found their comfort zone in winning eight straight games in Mountain West Conference play.

Their reward - good and bad - is hosting Air Force in the conference title game Saturday night.

The good, of course, is playing at home on Saturday. The bad is having to face Air Force's option.

'We're really excited about playing it here in San Diego,' said Rocky Long, voted the Mountain West Coach of the Year. 'Because of our record, we thought we deserved it and we're glad it worked out the right way.'

SDSU (9-3, 8-0 MWC, West Division champion), and Air Force (8-4, 6-2, Mountain champ), didn't meet in the regular season. In some seasons, the Aztecs might face two or even three option teams, so they spend time in summer camp working against the option.

This year they faced none, therefore spent zero time practicing against it.

'It's almost impossible to prepare for the option in one week,' Long said. 'It's going to be tough on us getting ready for what they do.'

On the other hand, SDSU has outscored its MWC foes 289-90.

'I think anytime you win by an average of 25 points per game and every game is a double-figure win, it's quite a tribute and I think it accurately reflects how strong San Diego State is,' Air Force coach Troy Calhoun said.

Here are some things to watch for when Air Force faces San Diego State in the Mountain West title tilt:

LONG TIME COMING: Air Force is looking for its first outright conference championship since winning the Western Athletic Conference in 1998.

San Diego State has been waiting a big longer. Its last outright crown was in 1986, also in the WAC. The Aztecs shared the 2012 MWC crown with Boise State and Fresno State.

BOWL PICTURE: The MWC isn't locked into a certain bowl for its champion.

The Aztecs will play in a bowl for the sixth straight season. Most projections have them playing in the Hawaii Bowl in Honolulu on Christmas Eve.

Air Force could be headed for the Armed Forces Bowl in Fort Worth on Dec. 29.

CORNERING THE MARKET: SDSU won four of the five major MWC awards. Besides Long winning Coach of the Year, Junior Donnel Pumphrey was named Offensive Player, cornerback Damontae Kazee was the Defensive Player and Rashaad Penny was the Special Teams Player.

Pumphrey has rushed 268 times for 1,464 yards and 16 touchdowns. He's had eight straight 100-yard games, a MWC record. Kazee has 66 tackles, including 51 solo, a team-best seven interceptions, 4 1/2 tackles for loss, seven pass breakups and two forced fumbles. Penny averages 32.5 yards per kickoff return, with touchdowns of 97 and 100 yards.

NEW QB: With Maxwell Smith going down with a torn ACL in the first quarter of the regular-season finale against Nevada, the Aztecs are forced to turn to redshirt freshman Christian Chapman. Chapman will make his first career start. He enters the game having thrown 24 career passes, completing 12 for 120 yards.

'We've got a lot of confidence in Smith,' said Long, who added that the Aztecs can't just rely on Pumphrey. 'For us to be successful, our quarterback's going to have to throw the ball to keep them honest.'

CLASSIC MATCHUP: Air Force is second in the MWC in scoring at 34.4 points per game. SDSU is first in scoring defense at 16.6 per game. San Diego State averages 31.8 points, third in the league, while Air Force holds teams to 22.9 points, third in the league.

The Falcons average 323.5 yards on the ground, tops in the MWC, and SDSU holds teams to 95 yards rushing, also tops.

Six different Falcons players have had 100-yard games, including three by Jacobi Owens, who's rushed for 857 yards and six touchdowns.

Long said the Falcons run the option six different ways. The key guy to keep an eye on will be quarterback Karson Roberts.

Only about six or seven Aztecs are decently versed in playing against the option, Long added.

'It's unique, it's baffling. You ought to watch practice. They don't know where to go. ... It's very difficult to get ready for in three days. And they run it very, very well.'

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Northern Iowa Panthers (8-4) at Portland State Vikings (9-2)

Date: December 05, 2015 10:00 PM EDT

(STATS) - There may not be a more surprising team hosting a second-round playoff game than sixth-seeded Portland State.

In its first playoff game in 15 years, it will face perhaps the FCS' hottest team.

In a matchup between schools that employ similar offenses featuring running quarterbacks, the No. 5 Vikings face 15th-ranked Northern Iowa on Saturday night with a spot in the quarterfinals on the line.

Few gave Portland State (9-2) much of a thought on the season's onset, at least the media, who picked the Vikings to finish 12th in the 13-team Big Sky. The low expectations weren't surprising considering they were coming off a 3-9 season and were being led by an interim coach in Bruce Barnum.

All Barnum did was direct Portland State to a 5-0 record against ranked FCS opponents, two wins over FBS programs, a second-place finish in the Big Sky and the school's first playoff appearance since 2000. Along the way he was rewarded with a five-year contract extension and was named the Big Sky Coach of the Year.

"Now we got the Panthers coming to town," Barnum said. "Playing football in December - fun stuff."

Northern Iowa (8-4) is no stranger to December football.

Earning an 18th berth to the playoffs after finishing tied for third in the Missouri Valley Football Conference, UNI rolled to a 53-17 win over Eastern Illinois in last Saturday's playoff opener for a sixth straight victory.

The Panthers have been dominant during the run, averaging 50.5 points in their last four games while allowing an average of 12.0 in the past six.

"I thought we had a good football team and it's really taking life here as of late," coach Mark Farley said. "The last six, seven weeks have been very good to us and we're playing good football right now."

The Panthers are trying to move to 3-0 on the season against Big Sky teams after defeating Eastern Washington and Cal Poly. This will be their first meeting with the Vikings, who also beat Cal Poly and Eastern Washington.

UNI has found success on the ground, running the ball on 67 percent of its snaps, but Barnum said his team will have to respect the pass. Aaron Bailey only attempted 11 passes last weekend but had touchdown throws of 52, 41 and 32 yards.

"You run it, you run it, you make 'em stop it, when they do stop it you keep running it and then all of a sudden you pop a couple over the top and you score," Barnum said. "(Bailey is) an athlete and he's got athletes to work with."

Bailey was named the MVC Newcomer of the Year after rushing for 1,101 yards and 17 touchdowns, school records for a quarterback. The transfer from Illinois has passed for 1,524 yards with 12 TDs.

His Portland State counterpart has a similar resume.

Alex Kuresa, a former wide receiver at BYU, was the Big Sky Newcomer of the Year, running for 707 yards while throwing for 1,870 and scoring 23 total touchdowns.

David Jones joins Kuresa in the backfield and finished third in the Big Sky in rushing with 1,080 yards and averaged 6.4 on 169 attempts.

The Vikings are 10th in the FCS in rushing, averaging 257.0 yards, while the Panthers are 16th at 228.8 per game.

"The speed they have on offense is something we're talking about on the field with our defense," Barnum said. "To have a chance in this football game, we're going to have to be as solid as tackling - one-on-one and getting hats on the ball - as we can."

Protecting the football also will be key, as Portland State is 10th in the FCS with 28 takeaways - one more than UNI.

The Vikings' Patrick Onwuasor, a first-team all-Big Sky selection and finalist for the STATS FCS Defensive Player of the Year, is tied for the FCS lead with nine interceptions.

The Panthers are led by the MVC Defensive Player of the Year in Deiondre' Hall, who picked off six passes and returned two for touchdowns to set a school record.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Get the best value betting these college football odds at the right time
By STEVE MERRIL

Each week during the college football season, Steve Merril looks at the NCAAF odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now

Temple Owls at Houston Cougars (-6)

Houston opened as a 6.5-point favorite over Temple, and a little money has come in on the underdog pushing the line down to -6 at some sportsbooks. But I expect Houston money to come in later on and push this line back up higher.

Temple does not have the offensive firepower to trade points with Houston. The Owls are only averaging 5.4 yards per play despite playing opposing defenses that are giving up 5.7 yards per play. Temple's defense has good seasonal numbers, but it’s faced an extremely weak slate of opposing offenses. Houston is averaging 42 points per game on 6.4 yards per play. Houston is less than a touchdown favorite with a high octane offense, so lay the points now before the line goes up.

Spread to wait on

Texas Longhorns (+20.5) at Baylor Bears

Baylor was posted as a 20-point home favorite in some spots versus Texas, but now the line is -20.5 and I anticipate it going even higher. The Bears are 9-2 SU and since they’re laying less than three touchdowns, bettors will be inclined to lay the points in this game.

Texas has had another disappointing season, but this is its "bowl game" as the Horns are just 4-7 SU on the year. They’re catching Baylor at the perfect time as the Bears are off a 28-21 overtime loss at TCU last week. This is a huge letdown spot after Baylor's second loss in three weeks will keep them out of the four-team national title playoff. Wait this game out and take Texas plus the points later in the week.

Total to watch

Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (72.5)

This total opened 71 and has already risen to 72.5 or higher in most locations. Southern Miss has played in three straight high-scoring games with 75, 87, and 82 points scored. All three of those games went Over the posted total. Off their recent three games, and against an opponent like Western Kentucky, this figures to be another shootout for the Golden Eagles.

Western Kentucky has an explosive offense that is averaging 44.2 points per game on a whopping 7.3 yards per play. It’s put those numbers up against defenses that allow 29.6 points per game on 5.7 yards per play. The Hilltoppers are 9-3 to the Over this season. This should be a high-scoring game, so take the Over now before the total goes any higher.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAA Football Predictions: Week 14 Opening Line Report and Picks
by Alan Matthews

The first College Football Playoff had some controversy with Ohio State jumping over TCU and Baylor into the Top 4 in the final rankings. The committee clearly turned out to be right there, however. If the favorites in this Saturday's Power 5 conference championship games all win, then the playoff field should be controversy-free. It's going to be Clemson, Alabama, Oklahoma and the winner of the Big Ten Championship Game between Michigan State and Iowa. Done deal. The only question is whether Oklahoma or the Big Ten champion is the No. 3 team. I'd guess it's the Big Ten club, and I'd frankly prefer to be No. 4 and play Clemson in the national semifinals than No. 2 Alabama.

I do expect all the favorites to win Saturday's conference championship games. The Tide should have no trouble at all in Atlanta against a Florida Gators team that clearly has been overrated all season. UF was embarrassed at home Saturday by Florida State, 27-2. That victory probably gets the Seminoles into a New Year's Six bowl.

Clemson might have its hands somewhat full with North Carolina, which has won 11 straight, in the ACC Championship Game. I would be curious to see what the committee might do with the Heels if they won. UNC doesn't have any other quality wins and played two FCS teams. But don't you have to take a one-loss conference champion over a one-loss Ohio State team that didn't even win its own division? Or over a two-loss Pac-12 champion if Stanford beats USC? The Heels were 14th in the most recent CFP rankings but should get up to around No. 8 in Tuesday's updated version.

The playoff chances of Baylor, Oklahoma State and Notre Dame vanished, along with Florida's, with losses on Saturday. The final rankings will be announced on Sunday.

The Heisman race also lacks drama. Alabama running back Derrick Henry solidified his grasp on the award by carrying an insane 46 times (school record) for 271 yards in the Iron Bowl victory over Auburn. He already has smashed the school's single-season rushing record and has two games to play. Henry is the +333 favorite to become the first running back since Alabama's Mark Ingram to win the Heisman. Clemson's Deshaun Watson is the +500 second-favorite. He could throw for 500 yards and seven TDs against UNC and is not going to win him the Heisman.

Here are a few Week 14 opening lines that caught my eye. Rankings from AP poll.

No. 20 Temple at No. 17 Houston (-6.5, 57): The winner of the American Athletic Conference Championship Game in Houston will earn the Group of Five's automatic New Year's Six bowl slot, either in the Peach or Fiesta Bowl. These teams are nothing alike on the field as the Owls are rather conservative and have a great defense, while Houston is an offensive juggernaut, but they do have one thing in common: head coaches who are in demand by Power 5 schools. It's looking like Houston's Tom Herman will accept a raise and stay put for now. Temple will try to throw money at Matt Rhule to keep him, but reports are he's the leading candidate at Missouri. Temple and Houston didn't meet in the regular season. The Owls visited Houston last year and lost 31-10. Greg Ward Jr. threw two touchdown passes in a 51-second span late in the third quarter. UH's only loss this year, to UConn, was when Ward couldn't start due to injury. The pick: Houston, which then faces Ohio State, Herman's former employer, in the Fiesta Bowl.

No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 18 Florida (+17, 39.5): The SEC Championship Game is in Atlanta, and that total is by far the lowest on the board in Week 14 This line is much bigger than I was expecting. I'll bet it would have been about half that if the Gators didn't lose so badly to Florida State. If not for a safety in the fourth quarter, the Gators would have suffered their first shutout since 1988. Florida averaged 13.8 points per game and scored just seven touchdowns in November despite facing terrible defenses in South Carolina and Florida Atlantic. This team badly misses suspended quarterback Will Grier. Alabama, meanwhile, is No. 2 nationally in total defense. This is the eighth time in the 24-year history of this game that Florida and Alabama have faced off. It's the third SEC title game for Florida coach Jim McElwain even though he's in his first season in Gainesville. He was once Nick Saban's offensive coordinator with the Tide. The pick: Hold off here. If it gets over 17, I'd probably take the points. Anything under, I'd give them.

No. 7 Stanford vs. No. 24 USC (+4.5, 60): The Pac-12 Championship Game is at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif., and the winner is probably headed to the Rose Bowl (for sure if USC). The Cardinal kept their College Football Playoff hopes slightly alive with that thrilling last-second win over Notre Dame on Saturday. Stanford needs a blowout win here and probably losses by both Clemson and Alabama to get in -- and even that might not be enough. I was shocked on Monday that USC named interim coach Clay Helton as the full-time guy. That's one of the best jobs in the country, and the Trojans likely could have had their pick of coaches. Reportedly they did reach out to Florida State's Jimbo Fisher, among others (apparently not Chip Kelly, though), but Fisher has said he was staying in Tallahassee. USC is a solid 5-2 under Helton with wins over ranked teams Utah and UCLA, the Trojans have outrushed opponents in each game and have been plus-9 in turnovers -- and he's popular with his players. Stanford won 41-31 at USC when the Trojans were No. 6 in the country on Sept. 19. Helton was still offensive coordinator under Steve Sarkisian then. The pick: Stanford.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAA Football Odds: Line Movements & Last-Minute News for Week 14
by Alan Matthews

Feels like about five minutes ago that South Carolina and North Carolina kicked off the 2015 college football season in Charlotte on Sept. 3. Rather ironically, the Tar Heels lost close in that one but haven't been beaten since and they have a chance in Charlotte on Saturday to upend the College Football Playoff with an upset of No. 1 Clemson (-5). If that doesn't happen, then I believe Sunday's final CFP rankings will be met with a giant yawn because the national semifinalists will be Clemson, Alabama (-18 vs. Florida), Oklahoma and the Big Ten Championship Game winner between No. 4 Iowa and No. 5 Michigan State (-3.5).

But outside the Top 4, the rankings are still relevant in determining which teams fill out the other four major bowls, this year the Rose, Sugar, Peach and Fiesta Bowls. Even though at No. 6 Ohio State is currently behind both Iowa and MSU, it's likely the loser of that game slips behind the Buckeyes. Thus, the Rose Bowl would snag OSU instead of the Big Ten runner-up, which in theory it's supposed to do when the conference champion is in the playoff.

I think we have a chalk weekend, so my projections are such: No. 1 Clemson vs. No. 4 Oklahoma in the Orange Bowl semifinal and No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 3 Michigan State in the Cotton Bowl. Yes, Sparty will jump current No. 3 Oklahoma with the Sooners sitting at home this weekend.

The Sugar Bowl is locked in with a Big 12 vs. SEC matchup and should pair Baylor (-20.5 vs. Texas on Saturday) and Ole Miss. The Rose is Big Ten vs. Pac-12 as usual and likely will be OSU vs. Stanford (-4.5 vs. USC in Pac-12 title game). The Fiesta and Peach take at-large teams and would pick among Florida State, Iowa, Notre Dame and the American Athletic Conference title game winner between Houston (-6) and Temple for the Group of Five bid. Those bowls can pick on location, which teams travel best where, etc. An FSU-Notre Dame matchup would be interesting since they played a great game last year and current FSU quarterback Everett Golson played for the Irish last year -- but he has recently been relegated to backup on the Noles. If the Rose takes Iowa, Ohio State-Houston has the Tom Herman story line as the Cougars' head coach was Urban Meyer's former offensive coordinator.

And one bowl that has to happen outside the New Year's Six: Georgia vs. Miami. Of course, the Hurricanes just snapped up recently-fired Dawgs coach Mark Richt, who had planned to coach UGA in its bowl game but now apparently will not. Still, Richt is expected to lure a handful of former assistants from there. Would he help his current team in terms of a scouting report?

Here are some news, notes and any line moves for some of this weekend's games around the country, in no particular order. Could be my final news update of the season, although I may do a busy bowl week or two if news/line movements warrant.

Bowling Green vs. Northern Illinois (+12.5, 69.5): The line on Friday's Mid-American Conference Championship Game from Detroit has moved more than any game this weekend, opening at 9.5. And I believe I know why even though NIU is taking the majority lean. The Huskies, in their sixth straight MAC title game, are going to have to give true freshman QB Tommy Fiedler his first career start. He was the fifth-stringer in camp. Drew Hare opened the season as the starter but was hurt in November. A couple of other guys had surgery in fall camp. Redshirt freshman Ryan Graham had been starting since Hare went out but was hurt in the regular-season finale loss to Ohio. Fiedler, a lefty, went 9-for-17 with 113 yards and a touchdown in that game after Graham left. By comparison, Bowling Green has one of the nation's most prolific quarterbacks and the MAC Offensive Player of the Year in Matt Johnson. He has thrown for 4,465 yards (No. 1 nationally) and 41 touchdowns (No. 2) and is about to break conference records in both. This is the third straight year BGSU and NIU have faced off in this game. The Falcons won in a 47-27 rout in 2013 when Johnson threw for 393 yards and five scores. He missed all but the opener last year due to injury, and Northern Illinois crushed Bowling Green in the title game 51-17.

Southern Miss at Western Kentucky (-7.5, 74): This line has dropped a point but the total has jumped three for Saturday's Conference USA Championship Game in Bowling Green, Ky. And it should be the highest-scoring game of the weekend. It's the home finale for one of the best mid-major quarterbacks ever in the Hilltoppers' Brandon Doughty. The senior, a finalist for the Manning Award, leads the FBS in completion percentage (72.5) and touchdowns (42), while ranking fifth in passing yards (4,184) and third in points responsible for per game (21.8). He is only the third quarterback in FBS history to have consecutive seasons with 4,000 passing yards and 40 touchdowns. WKU is looking for its first conference title at the FBS level. It ranks fourth nationally in points (44.2), while Southern Miss is ninth (41.7). USM enters having scored at least 56 points in three straight games. These teams haven't met in three years.

Air Force at San Diego State (-6.5, 50): Bit surprised the line on the Mountain West Championship Game from San Diego hasn't moved because SDSU quarterback Maxwell Smith, a transfer from Kentucky, was hurt in the regular-season finale and is done for the season. Well, probably. Smith tore his ACL but is going to try and play in whatever bowl game in which the Aztecs land. Smith is out of eligibility, so you can see why he wouldn't want to go out like this. San Diego State is a very run-heavy offense with 1,200 more yards rushing than passing, so Smith might not be missed as much as many starting QBs would be. Smith is 110-for-200 for 1,529 yards, 13 TDs and two picks. He's not a runner at all. Redshirt freshman Christian Chapman will make his first career start. He's 12-for-24 for 120 yards with a pick. You may not see more than 20 passes in this game because Air Force almost never runs the ball, ranking No. 3 nationally in rushing yards per game. SDSU enters on an eight-game winning streak, all by double digits, and has won five straight in this series.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

At the Gate - Saturday
By Mike Dempsey

The Gulfstream Park championship meeting gets underway on Saturday, and I have been looking forward to this meet more than normal this year.

The past few weeks at Aqueduct have been frustrating with questionable rides from a jockey colony that lacks in depth for a major racing circuit. With some of the top jockeys and trainers heading south for the winter, I thought it would be a good idea to do the same.

I will be handicapping Gulfstream Park on a daily basis Wednesday through Sunday and I will be doing Aqueduct on Saturday, as well as my Best Plays Report each Saturday and Sunday.

The racing is going to be much better in Florida, and Aqueduct is cutting back to a four-day racing week in January, and the fields figure to be short and the weather really wreaked havoc on us last winter.

The Gulfstream Park meeting kicks off with the 17th Claiming Crown. We have nine stakes on the 11-race card with purses of $1.1 million, and we have full fields throughout the card. It is one of the best wagering cards I have seen in months.

By January the Road to the Kentucky Derby will be in full swing and we will have plenty of opportunities to see the best three-year-olds at Gulfstream Park. In addition to plenty of maiden and first level allowance races, there is a slate of stakes that should draw strong fields.

The Derby trail starts the $100,000 Hutcheson (G3) and $100,000 Mucho Macho Man Jan. 2, the $350,000 Holy Bull (G2) and $150,000 Swale (G3) Jan. 30, the $400,000 Fountain of Youth (G2) and $150,000 Palm Beach (G3) Feb. 27, and the $75,000 Spectacular Bid March 19.

Those races will produce starters for the marquee event of the meeting, the $1 million Florida Derby (G1) on April 2. After that race we will head back to the Big Apple.

I should have more time on my hands now that I won’t be whining about the lousy riding in New York the next few months.


Here is today’s opener from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:

AQU Race 1 Md $40,000 (12:20 ET)
#3 Bust Another 5-2
#2 Carysfort Reef 8-5
#8 Boy Named Tish 8-1
#6 High Noon Cocktail 5-1

Analysis: Bust Another was squeezed back coming out of the gate and after being last early he made up some ground late to finish fifth for this tag, sent off at 29-1. The Mareina barn is 3 for 11 (with a +ROI) with second out maidens and winning to give this guy another look. He has three sibs that are winners and two are stakes winners, top earner Bustin It ($130,000).

Carysfort Reef was beaten just a neck last out for a $25,000 tag in his third career start. He was claimed out of the race by the Asmussen barn that is 18% winners first off the claim. He was claimed two back as well, taken from Pletcher by the Rice barn. Looks on track after getting beaten double digit lengths in his first two starts.

Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 2,3 / 2,3,6,8
TRI: 2,3 / 2,3,6,8 / 2,3,5,6,8

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:

AQU Race 8 The Garland of Roses (3:50 ET)
#7 Classic Point 7-2
#4 Room for Me 6-5
#6 Princess Violet 5-2
#5 La Madrina 6-1

Analysis: Classic Point was the beaten chalk last out in the restricted Punkin Pie, checking in a disappointing fifth in her second start off a six-month layoff. This gal was tough earlier this year, winning three in a row including the Go for Wand (G3) here at a mile followed up by the Inside Information (G2). She is better than she showed last out and gets a jock upgrade to CVel.

Room for Me was off a beat slow and raced very wide in a seventh place finish in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1) at 78-1. She was fourth beaten three lengths in the Gallant Bloom (G2) two back behind La Verdad and Wavell Avenue. She won five of her first eight starts this year and fits much better here with the class relief. Can't get too excited about her short price.

Wagering
WIN: #7 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 4,7 / 4,5,6,7
TRI: 4,7 / 4,5,6,7 / 3,4,5,6,7

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Gulfstream Park:

GP Race 11 The Claiming Crown Jewel (5:05 ET)
#11 Royal Posse 4-1
#8 Rich Daddy 6-1
#9 Indycott 8-1
#10 Freestyler 5-1

Analysis: Royal Posse was bumped coming out of the gate, chased the early pace while down along the inside which was not the best place to be, was fanned out five wide and could not match strides late with the winner in a runner up finish in the New York bred Empire Classic, beaten 3/4 of a length for the top spot. The gelding was nearly five lengths clear of the rest of the field in the effort. The RRod barn has been on fire in New York and claimed this guy for just $20,000 back in May and won the state bred Evan Shipman with him two back. He has landed in the exacta in five of his six trips at nine furlongs and has landed a wet track, landing in the exacta in three of five.

Rich Daddy was a much the best winner last out against $62,500 optional claimers last out, non-winners of two other than or a race since May 12. The gelding earned a near career top speed fig in that effort and has run well over the main track here and has a win and a third in two trips on off tracks. The nine furlongs is a question mark but he comes in here very sharp.

Indycott was a game winner last out against $35,000 starter allowance foes at Laurel Park. He was making his second start off the claim by the Danny Gargan barn that took this guy for $50,000 three back out of a win at Saratoga at nine furlongs. By A.P. Indy out of a Seeking the Gold mare, he is bred top and bottom to handle a wet track.

Wagering
WIN: #11 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 8,11 / 8,9,10,11
TRI: 8,11 / 8,9,10,11 / 1,8,9,10,11

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Gulfstream Park
R1: #6 Cast Iron 20-1
R2: #2 Two Times Book 8-1
R2: #5 Spintalk 10-1
R3: #6 St. Borealis 8-1
R3: #11 Seneca Destiny 12-1
R4: #4 Toh’s Grey Cat 10-1
R5: #7 Forest Funds 10-1
R6: #8 Ledokol 8-1
R8: #6 All Star Red 20-1
R8: #4 All About Yasom 20-1
R9: #11 Handsup Moneydown 10-1
R10: #4 Yankee Dealer 10-1
R10: #8 Depeche Chat 12-1
R10: #10 Key to Power 12-1
R11: #9 Indycott 8-1

Good luck today!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Balmoral: Saturday 12/5 Analysis
By Jeremey Day

DRF HARNESS

Race 9 - $20,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet (51 - 84 / $178.60): BIG EXPENSE (5th)

Spot Play: BNGS EXPRESS (9th)


Race 1

(7) RICHESS NESTOR has a few wins at this level on the year for the current barn; threat. (3) NANCYS SKYSCAPE went a tough trip last week and should benefit from being closer turning for home. (5) WESTERN DEAL has raced gamely in two straight and will offer a fair price.

Race 2

(1) TRIXSEN GRAM has been improving each week and gets the best post in a weak and inconsistent field. (8) MICRO FORCE lightly raced pacer owns some ability and is just now learning how to race; threat. (5) JOHN JAY had a ton of pace last week with nowhere to go.

Race 3

(2) MY BUDDY NINKSTER three-year-old has a tough task ahead of him facing older but the pacer should be in line for a nice ground saving trip. If the field decides to mix it up early he could pick up the pieces late. (7) ST ELMO HERO veteran pacer will look to make it five in a row and is the horse to beat. (3) A COOL CARD has been sharp every week for quite awhile. A smooth trip puts him right there.

Race 4

(6) BET ON HIM needed his last start and picks up a huge driver change. (3) JITTERBUG JACK was going to get a good piece last week before a costly break. (5) FOX VALLEY NORMAN gets sent out for capable connections but has not finished a mile strong in quite some time; command a price.

Race 5

(9) BIG EXPENSE will look to make it three straight at this level; big chance. (2) CERTAINLY set a career mark last week impressively. The 3-year-old was trotting up a storm late and a repeat of that effort makes him a contender. (3) MY MINI SNICKERS was much better for a new driver last start but is probably best used underneath.

Race 6

(8) LET'S NOT DWELL tired a bit late last week but actually finds a softer bunch than his last few. (7) RUNINTHRUDABRIDLE can hit the ticket at a price with a better trip and a decent setup. (3) MR MATLOCK has just been racing evenly; command a price.

Race 7

(7) SUDDENLY SINGLE tough to endorse a horse 0 for 16 on the year, however the 5-year-old has room to improve second start in a new barn. (2) MAJOR WAY is in the same boat as the top choice making his second start for new connections. (10) MAKE IT WORK veteran pacer has the heart of champion and never goes down without a fight.

Race 8

(7) SPLENDID PARTY was really good last week just missing against a better bunch. (9) MADOFF seven-year-old stallion adds lasix for the second time but just can’t get over the hump with the low percentage pilot; use underneath. (4) CUATRO CINCO has put in some big miles on the small track against better; threat.

Race 9

(10) BNGS EXPRESS was tremendous last week from a tough spot. The secret could be out, but with a fast pace to close into the pacer will be tough to keep off the ticket. (6) SOMESTARSOMEWHERE impeccably bred pacer drops in class and will be used aggressively. (3) BEST MAN HANOVER dropped and popped last week. The pacer is more than capable but will likely offer low value.

Race 10

(9) DONTGETBYME has been sharp in a new barn and with any pace to close into is the horse to beat. (10) VITAL TERROR should help the early pace quite a bit. The pacer owns wins at this level; fires early. (2) BELL VALLEY TIGER just missed last week but does bump up in class.

Race 11

(6) FIVEKNUCKLESHUFFLE will look to drop and pop against significantly weaker. (3) MONTERO BLUE CHIP could be one of few threats to the top choice but is very inconsistent from week to week. (4) FOX VALLEY CUPID can hit the ticket underneath with some racing luck.

Race 12

(3) FRISKIE FLICKER mare will look to make it two straight bumping up in class. The pacer was the top driver's choice and just needs to ration out her speed. (1) CRUISDE QUEEN will offer a much better price this week with the best post. (9) MOLLY GO LIGHTLY takes a significant drop in class but only has one start in five weeks.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Woodbine Harness: Saturday 12/5 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF HARNESS

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

20-CENT PICK 5: 4,7,8/4,7/1,5/1,4,7/2,4,7,8,10 = $36

EARLY PICK 4: 1,4,7/2,4,7,8,10/1,3,8,9/1 = $60

LATE PICK 4: 1,3/1,5/2,3,6/1,6 = $24

MEET STATS: 119 - 378 / $601.90 BEST BETS: 19 - 34 / $60.60

SPOT PLAYS: 8 - 34 / $99.80

Best Bet: CAJON LIGHTNING (8th)

Spot Play: RISE UP NOW (9th)


Race 1

(7) JULERICA closed like a rocket last week vs. a couple of tough rivals and should be able to get in closer range here in this shorter field; top call in the opener. (8) ON THE ROCKS was stung early in the same mile but was only a 1/2 length behind the choice at the wire. He should be tough in here. (4) PAN STREET USA has been racing well in some quick miles down south and can’t be dismissed.

Race 2

(7) CHEYENNE REIDER got into contention by pacing his own third 1/4 in :27 flat last week and kept coming to fall only a nose short. This race could come down to a battle with (4) VITAL SIGN again. The latter was able to just keep the choice at bay last week and is in top form. (5) CRAFTY MASTER was used hard early when finishing third to the top two. I still think a closing style is his best style and he may try that approach again here.

Race 3

(5) MOHAWK WARRIOR was a pretty easy winner last week in non-winners of two and has the class and speed to handle this move up. The one he will need to upend is (1) C L ART MAGIC who is fresh off an outstanding lifetime-best 1:51 flat win but could face some early heat in here. (7) SENIOR MARKET has really raced well since he moved to Woodbine and his solid form and gritty style should be respected.

Race 4

(4) REGALLY READY is sharp and drops to a level where she should be prominent. (7) ADAYMER SEELSTER left much more alertly as predicted last week and was right there at the wire. She should win one soon. (1) WILDCAT BEAUTY drops and gets an improved post. She could get a great trip here then capitalize late.

Race 5

(2) MY MY HEY HEY was so good last week that none of his rivals could keep up to him at any point of the mile. Curiously, he gets a driver switch to Baillargeon, who is good with trotters but this one does have a penchant to break stride often. Slight nod based on last week’s super mile. (4) STORMONT WIZARD is the one most likely to benefit if the choice self-destructs. (7) LOVE HUNTER is in with a shot, too, if he can stay trotting.

Race 6

(3) VEGAS ROCKS appeared to have trouble grabbing the wet track last time. He can rebound if the track is fast here. (9) ERLE DALE N was a sharp winner despite missing a month last week and is a must-use in the early pick 4 coming back in 7 days. (1) NIRVANA SEELSTER missed getting a check last week which allows him to drop again and he gets a much better post; using.

Race 7

(1) AMERICAN ROCK shakes the white-hot C L Art Magic here and draws inside. He should be prominent throughout. (7) D GS CAMME left hard then took a shuffle in a swift mile. He could get a better trip near the front here if Christoforou rolls him early. (2) CAMS TUX parlayed a perfect trip into a narrow win last week but looked good pacing home in 27 1/5. Keep him on your exotic wagers.

Race 8

(3) CAJON LIGHTNING was sold privately following the first leg of this series and came back with a lifetime-best dominating score last week. Beat him to greet the cashier. (1) JACK REACHER was visibly motoring late last week and should get lots of pace to chase here. (7) MACH ON THE BEACH has been sharp winning two legs of the series but will need to find more speed to upend the choice who is also a stablemate and one of three entries for the leading trainer here.

Race 9

(5) RISE UP NOW was so impressive last week when mowing the field down despite coming off a 5-week break that he could make this step up successfully and he should be third or fourth choice. (1) PRESCOTTS HOPE has been phenomenal the past two starts but has now missed three weeks which is a bit concerning. (6) EVENIN OF PLEASURE was a big winner in the last Preferred but now has to deal with the speed of Prescotts Hope again which could compromise his chances.

Race 10

(6) GRIN FOR MONEY uncorked a wild late rally first time in the new barn last week and could be good for another stepping up one class here. (2) SOMEWHERE FANCY made a big move to the front in the same race then tired late. He could do here with more careful rating. (3) CHAMPAGNE PHIL also led until late in an improved performance and is another to consider for late Pick 4 bets.

Race 11

(6) HIGH FASHION MEL looks like she was sold after her last win and now debuts for the leading trainer here. She likely tops this High-5 at a short price. (1) DILLY DALI was a late-closing 2nd to a strong winner last week and is a contender here but must get away better from this post. (5) VRAKA HANOVER races better when placed near the front and Jamieson should be leaving this time. Both (7) MACHMETER and (10) LITTLE MISS SPORTY drop out of the Autumn Series and both should make the High-5 ticket.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Meadowlands: Saturday 12/5 Analysis
By Derick Giwner

DRF HARNESS

Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 3 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Race 8 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

MEET STATS: 27 - 77 / $156.80 BEST BETS: 2 - 6 / $7.40

Best Bet: GRATIAS DEO (11th)

Spot Play: JACKSRLUCKYTOO (12th)


Race 1

This is a competitive race with many options. (4) UF FAST FEELIN has won two of three starts and should be nicely positioned in mid-pack to rally off a strong pace set up by outside speedsters. (8) GONE NUCLEAR drew the worst post but sure does look appealing coming off a 1:51 4/5 win. If McCarthy can work out a decent trip he'll be right there. (1) INTHEBLINKOFANEYE moves into a somewhat unknown (35-5-6-7 this year) barn after a good effort and comes with a capable entrymate. (7) BRIONI has won two straight but drew outside; dangerous.

Race 2

(2) NATURAL KEMP came up a bit short off the bench. Now with a start under his belt for new trainer Julie Miller perhaps we'll see more. (4) SHOW BIZ HALL is another making his first start after a break in action; second time Lasix. (9) ONE DIRECTION switches to a more accomplished Miller and could have a bigger say in his second start off the bench.

Race 3

(1) PISTOLPACKINPIPER scored at first asking for his new barn and looks to have found a good spot for the repeat. (4) MR CENSI came back with a solid effort and it seems the two month break really helped. (2) MULLET BLUE CHIP just missed to the top choice last time.

Race 4

(8) B YOYO has made breaks in two of his last four starts and comes with obvious risks because of that issue. That said, he has been racing versus better company and is capable of gunning down the road. (7) YOU ROCK MY WORLD steps down and adds David Miller. (6) CAMBRIDGE is back on the big track where he won two straight back in June.

Race 5

(5) HUNCHIE was in against much tougher including a revved up Our Dragon King last time. This field is much easier. (6) SMILE A LITTLE has been getting away slowly and losing any chance on smaller tracks. (2) SWEET TALKIN CLYDE flashed big speed in his recent qualifier. Did that mile get him tight for Saturday? (1) TWINCREEKS JESSE lured David Miller off a few others.

Race 6

(6) BLATANTLY BEST was flat in the stretch last time versus a field I'd classify as slightly tougher than he faces tonight. Classy 5-year-old should be tighter in his second start since September. (5) SO TAKE THAT comes in with some form, which is more than I can say for most of these. (4) BAKIN ON THE BEACH is not the same horse he was a few years ago but is better than the ninth-place finish from a week ago.

Race 7

(2) GIACODELIGHT was in over his head last time. Spagnola trainee can bring a much better effort versus this group. (8) BETTOR THAN YOU qualified back with a strong mile and might be ready to roll. (1) MISTER TRUTH is very consistent; using mostly underneath.

Race 8

(5) ROCKIN WIZARD is not as good as some of the others signed on to this race, but he is sharp and honest. I'll take a shot at a price. (7) ULTIMATE BEACHBOY lured Gingras off #8. The qualifier was just okay but the class is there. (2) ASHLEY'S HUSBAND takes a big step up in class but is fast enough to compete. (8) SUNFIRE BLUE CHIP loses Gingras but still merits consideration; using in pick four.

Race 9

(4) EL SHOOTER scored at first asking for trainer Ron Burke upon arrival from Hoosier. This is a rather evenly matched group but I give this one a very slight edge. (2) REAL FLIGHT comes off a win and lured Zeron over #s 3 & 9. (9) BUGGER BRUISER has the early speed to get in play from the outside and should offer some good value. (1) EASTEND EDDIE should be involved somewhere in the exotics but likely needs to get lucky to win.

Race 10

(6) RAISE THE CURTAIN has been racing well out of town and might actually be helped my switching to the bigger track. Brett Miller in the bike is also a plus. (1) POSSESSED FASHION was second at this level last time out and seems like a must on most tickets. (7) HOUSE OF CASH gets class relief and a driver switch to Gingras.

Race 11

(4) GRATIAS DEO was parked every step of the mile and held very well last time. This guy is definitely ready to win. (3) ORILLIA JOE moves inside and should make the top this week; big threat. (5) SUPREME MACH N loomed and couldn't find enough a week ago. I wouldn't be shocked if he continued to improve in just start four in the U.S.

Race 12

(2) JACKSRLUCKYTOO raced very well in his recent qualifier, aborting a possible leave attempt and charging home in the lane. I'm on board at what should be a decent price. (3) MAJOR IN LIFE just missed last time; obvious player. (10) VILLE VALO has the early speed to overcome the bad draw; maybe.

Race 13

Trainer/driver Rick Dane is still seeking his first win of the meet and seems to be in the perfect spot with (7) GALACTIC STAR. This veteran gelding likes to win and faces a very questionable group. (4) STORMIN RUSTLER was short after missing multiple months; proven on this track. (2) FRATERNITY moves into a new barn and picks up Brett Miller; maybe. (5) NEW YORK TERROR gets a driver change to Zeron.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Saturday 12/5 Analysis
By Matt Rose

DRF HARNESS

MEET STATS: 387 - 1168 / $2,168.10 BEST BETS: 56 - 94 / $196.60

Best Bet: NATIONAL DEBT (10th)

Spot Play: MATT MAJOR (2nd)


Race 1

(5) ARTIST NIGHT has been racing better of late for Burke and he should flex his muscles here in this pretty light NW12000 affair. (2) ELECTRIC CHAPEL N is erratic but his best effort will be good enough here. (1) KHEMMYWOOD was third last week after cutting the mile and he rates as highly tonight from the inside post.

Race 2

(3) MATT MAJOR has been solid upstate since joining the Rousse barn and the recent addition of Lasic may make him even better; gets top billing despite facing better. (1) JONES BEACH lands inside, has speed and was Bartlett's choice over the Bamond trainee (6) BACKUP A, who has rallied nicely in three of his last four.

Race 3

(1) AUCKLAND FLYER N has never been one of my favorites but he's closed with solid pace in his last four efforts and should be very live from the rail. (4) IDEALBEACH HANOVER gets needed post relief and will be closer to the action. (2) CLASSIC GENT can't seem to get over the hump recently but he should be included from this inside spot.

Race 4

(3) SAM'S ESCAPE may have tailed off a touch after a very sharp form cycle but the class and post relief could be what the doctor ordered. (2) UPFRONT COUNTRYBOY returns from Saratoga after beating lesser and he's been competitive with similar here in the past. (5) MAINLAND KEY N hasn't won in some time but he usually gives a good accounting of himself.

Race 5

(1) ONE THROUGH TEN always flashes speed, but doesn't always find the wire in time. He does deserve top billing from this spot, however. (3) UF ROCKIN DRAGON gets needed post relief in his second start since hiking to this level and the Mark Ford trainee has been sharp. (6) DRUNKEN DESIRE A was aggressively handled to victory versus similar two back but the outside post may hurt tonight.

Race 6

(8) ALWAYS AT MY PLACE returned locally a couple of weeks back and picked up right where he left off; Burke trainee can take another despite the eight hole assignment. (4) YS LOTUS returns from Saratoga in good form and the Allard trainee has had some good moments versus these in the past; consider for some value underneath. (6) WINDS OF CHANGE was Bartlett's choice over the sharp Melmerby Beach and he does have a post edge on that rival.

Race 7

(6) MACHS BEACH BOY actually gets to drop in class off an odds-on win last week; only problem here may be the outside post. (3) CROMBIE A hasn't been at his best recently but he can steamroll these with a top effort. (4) MOONLITEONTHEBEACH gave way on the front end again last week; he can be a threat if taken off the pace.

Race 8

(6) BIGTOWN HERO just missed to Ideal Cowboy after stalking from the pocket last week; that's two solid efforts since returning locally and he seems the most logical candidate here. (8) DYNAMIC YOUTH hasn't put in a bad effort in ages but the eight hole draw certainly doesn't help his chances. (4) THE REAL ONE has been a model of consistency all season for Lachance, banking over $257K in the process; he's inside what he has to beat.

Race 9

(4) BJ'S BEQUIA has quietly had a solid season for the Godinez barn and the versatile veteran can get it done from on or off the pace. (3) HI HO STEVERINO gets some post relief and Bartlett in the bike; Bamond trainee is always competitive from inside posts. (5) DEMOCRACY N was used too hard last week and wilted; he'll likely be off the pace tonight.

Race 10

(4) NATIONAL DEBT never got involved last week from the outside post but his prior two efforts since joining the Allard barn were solid; formerly high-priced 4-year-old is in for a tag tonight. (1) ROCK TO GLORY has proven capable of saving ground and finishing well versus this type and the inside post will only help his cause. (3) VILLAGE BEAT should also be saving ground and could shake free with some pace.

Race 11

(1) STYXIT TO EM N gets much-needed post relief and catches a soft group of NW18000 types; logical. (5) CAPOZZO makes his second start back off the bench and should be showing more. (3) OUR WALDEN BURY N was a winner at Freehold in his U.S. debut.

Race 12

(4) AMERICAN RAGE drops a notch in class in his second start for new connections, and he's back in on consecutive weeks after missing almost a month; take a long look. (6) CHEYENNE SEEBER drops from the Open 4YO ranks, where he's made some decent money; worth considering. (1) FAT MANS ALLEY makes his fourth start back off the shelf, but he didn't show enough in his three return efforts to warrant consideration for the top spot.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Saturday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Aqueduct (1st) High Noon Cocktail, 5-1
(2nd) Here Comes Tommy, 5-1

Charles Town (3rd) Jacob Marley, 7-2
(7th) Duchess of Wicklow, 5-1

Delta Downs (6th) I Rate First, 8-1
(9th) Lucky Cal, 9-2


Fair Grounds (2nd) Slew City Lou, 4-1
(6th) Candy My Boy, 7-2


Golden Gate Fields (6th) Anointed Waters, 5-1
(7th) Princess Bertrando, 9-2


Gulfstream Park (4th) Runs With Bulls, 6-1
(9th) Slan Abhaile, 5-1


Hawthorne (4th) Ogee's Ekati, 7-2
(7th) Parlay, 7-2


Laurel Park (1st) Cathelda, 8-1
(6th) Party Rock, 7-2


Los Alamitos (4th) Bound for Heaven, 8-1
(9th) Small Town Shuffle, 3-1


Mahoning Valley (6th) Grab the Cash, 8-1
(8th) Engine, 5-1


Parx Racing (4th) Debonaire Man, 4-1
(8th) Bird of Trey, 7-2


Penn National (3rd) Pea Shooter Pro, 7-2
(6th) Whereisthesurprise, 6-1


Remington Park (2nd) Quick Sand, 4-1
(5th) My Brother Don, 3-1


Tampa Bay Downs (2nd) Twinkling TIme, 7-2
(9th) Babe's Ruler, 3-1


Turf Paradise (1st) Sidus, 4-1
(8th) Crown King, 4-1


Turfway Park (6th) Donita's Ruler, 7-2
(8th) Mizzen Moon, 5-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Saturday's six-pack

-- Arizona gave Zack Greinke $206M for six years; more on this next week.

-- UNLV 80, Oregon 69-- Rebels are headed to the top 25.

-- BYU coach Bronco Mendenhall bolts for Virginia- interesting career change.

-- Browns are on fifth coach in eight years; Steelers have had three since 1969.

-- Canisius 96, Monmouth 86-- Bubble bursts for Hawks as MAAC play starts.

-- Get well soon, Sandy Alderson-- Mets' GM starts chemo next week after he was diagnosed with cancer.