Jimmy Boyd
LSU vs Louisville
Free Pick on LSU -
I’ll take my chances with the Tigers laying a short number here. I just think LSU is going to be the more motivated team in this one. Louisville was in the playoff talks right up until the final two weeks of the season. It’s just not easy getting excited about any bowl game after being so close to playing for a national title.
The fact that the Cardinals are ranked No. 13 and will feature Heisman winner Lamar Jackson is keeping this line lower than it should be. I actually think Jackson is going to bring out the best of the LSU defense in this game. I look for them to come out an make a statement against what is perceived to be the best player in the country.
The Tigers certainly have the defense to make life miserable for Jackson. LSU features one of the best defenses in the country. They ranked 6th in points allowed (16.4 ppg) and 14th in total defense (323 ypg). They were at their best against the run, giving up just 121.8 ypg and 3.4 yards/carry. Not a lot of people realize they only gave up 16 offensive touchdowns all season. I believe their speed and athleticism on this side of the ball is a perfect recipe to keep Jackson in check.
I also think getting all this time to prepare for facing Jackson is a huge benefit to LSU. Don’t forget they have one of the top defensive coordinators in the game in Dave Aranda.
LSU won’t have the services of star running back Leonard Fournette. He’s decided to sit out the bowl game to prepare for the NFL Draft. While Fournette is a special talent, LSU has got use to playing without him, as he missed 5 games. Sophomore backup, Derrius Guice, has proven he’s more than capable of shouldering the load. Guice rushed for 1,249 yards and 14 touchdowns on 157 attempts. Keep in mind he averaged 8.0 yards/carry compared to Fournette’s 6.5 ypc on 129 attempts.
Not to take anything away from the AAC, but Louisville hasn’t played a lot of teams that are as physical as LSU. Combine that with the lack of motivation and I think this could end up being a lot more lopsided than people think.
It’s also worth noting there’s a strong system in play backing a fade of Louisville. Teams outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game with a line of +3 to -3 are just 7-31 (18%) ATS after giving up 31 or more points in each of their last 2 games. Take LSU!
LSU vs Louisville
Free Pick on LSU -
I’ll take my chances with the Tigers laying a short number here. I just think LSU is going to be the more motivated team in this one. Louisville was in the playoff talks right up until the final two weeks of the season. It’s just not easy getting excited about any bowl game after being so close to playing for a national title.
The fact that the Cardinals are ranked No. 13 and will feature Heisman winner Lamar Jackson is keeping this line lower than it should be. I actually think Jackson is going to bring out the best of the LSU defense in this game. I look for them to come out an make a statement against what is perceived to be the best player in the country.
The Tigers certainly have the defense to make life miserable for Jackson. LSU features one of the best defenses in the country. They ranked 6th in points allowed (16.4 ppg) and 14th in total defense (323 ypg). They were at their best against the run, giving up just 121.8 ypg and 3.4 yards/carry. Not a lot of people realize they only gave up 16 offensive touchdowns all season. I believe their speed and athleticism on this side of the ball is a perfect recipe to keep Jackson in check.
I also think getting all this time to prepare for facing Jackson is a huge benefit to LSU. Don’t forget they have one of the top defensive coordinators in the game in Dave Aranda.
LSU won’t have the services of star running back Leonard Fournette. He’s decided to sit out the bowl game to prepare for the NFL Draft. While Fournette is a special talent, LSU has got use to playing without him, as he missed 5 games. Sophomore backup, Derrius Guice, has proven he’s more than capable of shouldering the load. Guice rushed for 1,249 yards and 14 touchdowns on 157 attempts. Keep in mind he averaged 8.0 yards/carry compared to Fournette’s 6.5 ypc on 129 attempts.
Not to take anything away from the AAC, but Louisville hasn’t played a lot of teams that are as physical as LSU. Combine that with the lack of motivation and I think this could end up being a lot more lopsided than people think.
It’s also worth noting there’s a strong system in play backing a fade of Louisville. Teams outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game with a line of +3 to -3 are just 7-31 (18%) ATS after giving up 31 or more points in each of their last 2 games. Take LSU!
