Saturday 12/31/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

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NBA

Saturday’s games

Grizzlies are 3-2 in last five games but lost three of last four on road; they’re 8-4 vs spread in last 12 road games. Over is 6-2 in their last eight road games. Kings won four of last five games, are 5-2 in last seven home games. Under is 10-5 in their last fifteen games. Memphis won eight of last ten games with Sacramento, covering four of last five; Grizzlies are 3-1 in last four visits here. Under is 8-2 in last ten series games.

Cleveland won six of its last seven games; they’re 4-5 in last nine road games (3-6 vs spread). Three of last four Cars games stayed under total. Hornets won five of last six games; they’re 4-1 vs spread in last five home games. Under is 8-4 in last 12 Charlotte games. Cavaliers won eight of last nine games with Charlotte (6-1-1 vs spread in last eight); they won two of last three games in this building. Four of last five series games went over.

Milwaukee lost five of last seven road games; they’re 3-8 as road underdogs. Five of Bucks’ last six games went over the total. Chicago is 3-7 in its last ten games but won three of last four at home; Bulls are 2-7 in last nine games as a home favorite. Bucks won last two games with Chicago by 11-26 points; teams split last four games here. Under is 7-2 in last nine series games. Milwaukee

New York lost three in row, six of last eight games; they’re 6-2 in last eight games as a road underdog, 1-4 if they played night before. Under is 3-1 in their last four games. Houston won eight of last nine home games, is 8-5 as a home favorite. Over is 8-1 in their last nine games. Knicks lost nine of last ten games with Houston; New York lost four of last five visits here, but covered last three. Three of last four series games went over total.

Utah is 9-4 in its last 13 home games, 5-8 vs spread as a home favorite. Five of their last six games stayed under the total. Phoenix is 4-14 on road, 0-4 in last four tries as a road underdog. Six of Suns’ last seven games went over the total. Jazz won five in row, eight of last ten games with Phoenix; under is 5-2 in last seven series games. Suns lost last five visits to Salt Lake City (0-4-1 vs spread).

Clippers gave up 140 points in Houston last night; they’ve lost five games in row, are 3-2 as a road underdog. Four of last five LA games stayed under total. Westbrook got tossed from last game Thursday; he should be hyped here. Thunder won four of last five games; they’re 10-5 as a home favorite. Under is 5-3 in their last eight home games. Clippers lost three of last four games with Oklahoma City; they lost three of last five games in this arena. Three of last four series games went over total.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB

Saturday’s games

Xavier won four of last five games with Georgetown, winning 66-53/88-70 in last two visits here; Musketeers are 11-2 vs schedule #49 but lost both their true road games, by 15 at Baylor, by a hoop at Colorado. Xavier won last four games, is 5-2 vs top 100 teams, with best win by 6 over Clemson on a neutral floor. Georgetown is 8-5 vs schedule #60; they’re 3-4 vs top 100 teams, and lost at home to Maryland/Arkansas State. Hoyas turn ball over 20.1% of time, aren’t great on defensive boards (#322). Georgetown is making 40.2% of its 3-pointers (#22).

It is New Year’s Eve and Duke is playing its first true road game of season; they played UNLV in T-Mobile Arena (not Rebels’ home floor) but Rebels are an expansion team this year. Duke is without Allen (suspended) here; they’ve won last nine games with Virginia Tech, winning last three trips here, by 15-32-5 points- they won last trip here 91-86 in OT two years ago. Blue Devils are 3-1 vs top 100 teams (they’re 12-1 vs schedule #122, with only top 40 wins over Florida, URI. Va Tech is 11-1 with only loss by 3 to Texas A&M on a neutral floor.

Notre Dame is another team playing first true road game today; they’re 2-2 on a neutral floor, 3-2 vs top 100 teams, with losses to Villanova by 8, Purdue by 5- their best win was over #45 Northwestern. Pitt won its last three games with Notre Dame, all by four points; Irish lost five of last seven visits here, in series where road team won three of last four games. Panthers won 112-106 over Marshall last game; they were up 20 at half. Pitt is 11-2 vs schedule #138; they’re 2-1 vs top 100 teams, losing by 9 to SMU on a neutral floor.

Louisville/Indiana both were upset in their conference openers earlier this week; Cardinals won last meeting with Indiana 94-74 two years ago, after trailing by 4 early in second half. This year, Louisville is 11-2 vs schedule #33; they won by 9 at Grand Canyon in its only true road game. Cardinals have #7 eFG% defense in country, Indiana is 2-2 vs top 100 teams; they lost 87-83 to Nebraska in Big 14 home opener, even though Hoosiers made 11-25 on arc. Louisville foes are shooting 28% on the arc. This isn’t a conference game but it is a high-profile national game.

Villanova won its last four games with Creighton, winning 76-72/85-71 in last two visits here; five of last six series meetings were decided by 14+ points. National champ Wildcats are 5-0 on neutral floors; this is their first true road game outside of Philly. Villanova is 13-0 vs schedule #100; they looked shaky at home vs DePaul Wednesday (won 68-65) but they’ve got #4 eFG% in country, are #90 experience team. Creighton has really fast guards; they’re 13-0 vs schedule #149, with six top 100 wins, beating Wisconsin/Seton Hall at home.

UConn is decimated by injuries; they were down 36-12 at half of their AAC opener with Houston. Huskies lost three of last four games, are 5-7, splitting pair of true road games that were decided by total of 7 points. Tulsa lost 7 of top 8 scorers from LY; they lost their last two games, scoring 59.5 pts/game. Hurricane is turning ball over 24.3% of time, in bottom 10 in country. Tulsa is 1-4 vs teams ranked #110 or better, with best win over #89 Illinois St. Home side won all four AAC meetings between UConn/Tulsa; Huskies lost 66-58/60-51 in last two visits here.

Virginia won its last two games by 4 at Cal, 8 at Louisville, two quality wins; Cavaliers’ only loss was by 9 at home to West Virginia. Virginia forces turnovers 23.6% of time (#12); they won five of last six games with Florida State, beating Seminoles in two of last three ACC tournaments; Seminoles lost last three games here, by 20-10-12 points. FSU won its last nine games, with four of those top 100 games; this is Seminoles’ first true road game. Seminoles are 13-1 vs schedule #231; they’re #304 experience team but their bench is playing #22 minutes.

Davidson is 7-4 vs schedule #62; they’re 7-0 vs teams ranked outside top 100, with six of the seven wins by 12+ points. Wildcats are #161 experience team that has players from 7 different countries; they take lot of 3’s but are making only 33.8% of them so far. Richmond is 3-5 in its last eight games, 1-2 in true road games, losing at Bucknell/Oral Roberts. Spiders are shooting just 30.8% on arc. Davidson is 3-1 vs Richmond since they became A-14 rivals; Spiders lost 81-67/83-79 in last two visits here. Home team won three of four series games.

Wyoming is surprising 10-3 vs schedule #229; they were in Las Vegas LW, losing in OT to USC at Orleans Arena. Cowboys are 1-2 in true road games, with only win at Montana by a point- they lost at Pacific/Cal. UNLV has a whole new team; they’re 7-7, 6-3 on this floor; they’re 6-3 vs teams ranked outside top 100. Home side won last six Wyoming-UNLV games; Cowboys won conference tourney on this floor couple years ago, but they’re 0-15 in last 15 games vs Rebels in this gym, with six of last eight losses by 11+ points.

Central Florida is still without PG Taylor (wrist) who missed last six games; Knights have #1 eFG% defense, thanks to 7-6 C Fall- opponents are shooting 36.1% inside arc against them. UCF is turning ball over 22.3% of time; they’re 1-1 in top 100 games, winning at Charleston, losing by 10 to Villanova. Temple won its last four games with UCF, three by 6 or less points; Owls won 86-62/62-60 in last two visits to Orlando. Temple split its last six games, losing by 6 to Cincy in AAC opener. Owls lost by 3 at Mass in their only true road game outside of Philly.

NC State is 11-2 vs schedule #290; they crushed last four opponents since big man Yurtseven became eligible- he scored 11 pts/game so far. Wolfpack lost by 14 at Illinois in only true road game; they also lost by 18 to Creighton on neutral floor- those are their only two top 100 tilts. NC State is 3-2 in its last five games with Miami; they’ve won three of last four games in this building. Hurricanes are 1-2 vs top 100 teams, losing to Iowa St/Florida in tourney at Disney, beating Stanford by 14 in same event. Miami has #6 eFG% defense in the country.

Nevada won its last seven games; they’re 2-1 in true road games, winning at Washington, Bradley after losing at St Mary’s in season opener. Wolf Pack is 9-0 vs teams outside top 125; they lost to #114 Iona in Alaska after they had beaten Gaels in Reno the week before. Fresno State won five of last seven games with Nevada, with both losses in OT; Wolf Pack lost last two visits here, by 4-22 points. Bulldogs are 0-4 vs top 200 teams; their best win is over #204 Oregon State.

Tennessee State beat Murray State 73-71 at home LY, just their second win in last 15 games with the Racers. Tigers lost their last eight games in this gym. TSU is 2-3 in last five D-I games, losing to two ACC teams and Vanderbilt; they’re 6-0 vs teams outside top 100 and they’ve also won at #63 Middle Tennessee State. Murray State is lost its last four D-I games; they last D-I win was Dec 3rd. Racers are 23-22 since coach Prohm bolted to Iowa State; they’re 1-3 vs teams in top 125, with win over #69 Illinois State. Murray is 1-5 in games decided by 6 or less points.

Saturday’s tips
Nevada Wolf Pack, -2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'College Football Playoff'

The defending national champion Alabama Crimson Tide (13-0, 9-4 ATS) spanking Florida 54-16 in the SEC Championship game easily covered the 23.5 point spot. 'Bama' will ride a 25-game win streak, 16-9 record against the betting line into their December 31st Peach Bowl matchup against 4th-ranked Washington Huskies (12-1, 7-6 ATS) off a 41-10 route of Colorado as 8-point chalk in the Pac-12 championship game.

Huskies, a team nobody saw coming after a 7-6 season in 2015 are lead by QB Jake Browning accounting for 42 passing, 4 rushing touchdowns and bring to the contest a 4th-ranked scoring offense racking up 44.5 points/game. Certainly a darkhorse supporters who enjoy going against the grain will get behind. However, upending this well-oiled Alabama squad with its downright terrifying top ranked scoring defense (11.8) and seemingly unstoppable offense (40.5) lead by QB Jalen Hurts tossing 2563 passing yards, 21 TD while gridding out 841 rushing yards, 12 TD will be a challenge.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Need-to-know betting notes for college football bowl teams
By JOE FORTENBAUGH

Indulge me for a moment as I impart one piece of advice upon you before we dive into this year’s 80 need-to-know betting notes for each of the 80 college football bowl teams: above all else, put an increased emphasis on the motivation factor when handicapping each of these 40 matchups.

Why? Because there’s some easy money to be made during bowl season. Every year we are blessed with at least a handful of matchups that feature one team experiencing unbridled enthusiasm to play in its respective game against an opponent that has virtually no interest whatsoever in trying to win the showdown in question.

Case in point: Alabama’s 45-31 loss to Oklahoma in the 2014 Sugar Bowl. The Crimson Tide couldn’t have cared less about that game after watching an 11-0 season go up in smoke thanks to a 34-28 upset loss at Auburn which prevented the Tide from advancing to the SEC Championship Game.

Let’s go to work. Happy holidays to all!

Taxslayer Bowl: Saturday, December 31 (11 a.m. ET)

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (8-4 SU, 6-4-1 ATS): Give any defense a month to prepare for Georgia Tech’s triple option attack and suddenly the Yellow Jackets don’t look so formidable. However, this program is still 4-1 ATS over its last five matchups with SEC opposition, 4-1 ATS over their last five games played in the month of December and 4-1-1 ATS over the team’s last six neutral site games. However, the Yellow Jackets are just 2-6 ATS over their last eight bowl games.

Kentucky Wildcats (7-5 SU, 7-5 ATS): The Taxslayer Bowl marks Kentucky’s first postseason appearance since the 2011 BBVA Compass Bowl (27-10 loss vs. Pittsburgh), so expect Mark Stoops’ troops to be riding high with both emotion and motivation for this one. The Wildcats covered the number in seven of their last nine outings this season.

Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl: Saturday, December 31 (11 a.m. ET)

LSU Tigers (7-4 SU, 5-6 ATS): Coach O is safe and his players are happy, so there’s absolutely no reason whatsoever for LSU to come out flat in this one. After a slow start under former head coach Les Miles, the Tigers picked up the pace during the latter part of the season with five point spread covers over the program’s final seven contests.

Louisville Cardinals (9-3 SU, 5-6-1 ATS): Louisville’s ultra-impressive 9-1 start went flying off the tracks during the final two weeks of the season as the Cardinals were blasted 36-10 at Houston nine days before falling 41-38 at Kentucky as 28.5-point favorites. So with a potential playoff berth giving way to a December 31 bowl game, do the Cardinals have any desire whatsoever to show up for this contest? Be advised that Louisville is just 1-4 ATS over its last five games against teams with a winning record.

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl: Saturday, December 31 (3 p.m. ET)

Washington Huskies (12-1 SU, 7-6 ATS): The Huskies opened as 14.5-point underdogs and it’s been nothing but Alabama money since, with the line sitting at Crimson Tide -15 as of this article’s publication. Washington head coach Chris Petersen is the real deal due, in part, to a 6-3 lifetime bowl record (5-2 at Boise State, 1-1 at Washington). The Huskies are 6-1 ATS over their last seven non-conference games, but does Washington have the beef in the trenches to hang tight with the Tide?

Alabama Crimson Tide (13-0 SU, 9-4 ATS): Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide are 6-2 ATS over their last eight games overall and 13-6 ATS over their last 19 non-conference showdowns. In addition, Saban is 7-3 in postseason play since taking over at Alabama, but you can eliminate the 2009 Sugar Bowl (31-17 loss vs. Utah) and 2014 Sugar Bowl (45-31 loss vs. Oklahoma) from the equation, as Alabama couldn’t have cared less about those games after missing out on a chance to play for the national championship.

PlayStation Fiesta Bowl: Saturday, December 31 (7 p.m. ET)

Ohio State Buckeyes (11-1 SU, 6-6 ATS): How do you bet against Urban Meyer in this spot, who is 10-2 lifetime in postseason play (2-0 at Utah, 5-1 at Florida, 3-1 at Ohio State)? Additionally, the Buckeyes are 5-0 ATS over their last five neutral-site games and 4-0 ATS over their last four non-conference showdowns.

Clemson Tigers (12-1 SU, 6-7 ATS): Clemson may have concluded the 2016 campaign with just two pointspread covers over the program’s final seven contests, but take note that the Tigers are a perfect 5-0 ATS over their last five bowl games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF action report: Books flooded with Washington Huskies action
By PATRICK EVERSON

Bowl games have been rolling out in droves the past two weeks. Finally, we’re getting some games with meaning in the New Year’s Eve College Football Playoff semifinals. We talk about where the action is with Matthew Holt, COO of CG Analytics, which provides the lines for several Las Vegas sportsbooks.

Peach Bowl

No. 4 Washington Huskies vs. No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide – Open: -14; Move: -15; Move: -16; Move: -15.5; Move: -15; Move: -15.5; Move: -15; Move: -14.5; Move: -15.5; Move: -14.5; Move: -14; Move: -13.5; Move: -14

With nearly four weeks since the Peach Bowl first hit the betting boards – and actually, even earlier than that with projected CFP matchups – this line has seen plenty of back-and-forth movement, though defending champion Alabama remains a hefty favorite. The Crimson Tide (13-0 SU, 9-4 ATS) hammered Florida 54-16 in the SEC Championship Game as a massive 24-point favorite, their 25th consecutive SU win.

Washington (12-1 SU, 7-6 ATS) rebounded from a late-season home loss to Southern Cal, winning its final three games en route to the Pac-12 crown. In the conference title game, the Huskies rolled Colorado 41-10 as an 8.5 point chalk.

“So interestingly enough, when we opened this number, we saw a lot of sharp money on Alabama. Drove that line from 13.5 all the way up to 16. There were even some 17s out there if you shopped hard enough,” Holt said. “On the other side, though, it has been the public that has driven this line back down not just to 14, but back through 14, which is amazing. Really hard to go through 14, because now 14 is a real vulnerable number for the sportsbook here. But that’s public money.”

Holt said CG books, including those at The Cosmopolitan, Venetian and the M, have written four times more Washington tickets over the counter – typically public bettors – than Alabama tickets. That dropped the line to 13.5 on Thursday morning, though it did rebound a tick to 14 on Friday for this 3 p.m. Eastern kickoff Saturday.

“Look, the Crimson Tide have become the bad guys here. Nick Saban has become Darth Vader, the evil empire,” he said. “The fans want Washington to win, and we’re seeing them flood in and making over-the-counter wagers on the Washington Huskies.”


Fiesta Bowl

No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 2 Clemson Tigers – Open: +3; Move: +3.5; Move: +3; Move: +2.5

The Fiesta Bowl, with a 7 p.m. Eastern kickoff, hasn’t seen nearly the line movement, with CG instead adjusting the juice on this game over the past three weeks and keeping Ohio State as a field-goal favorite almost throughout. The Buckeyes (11-1 SU, 6-6 ATS) haven’t played since Nov. 26, when they edged Michigan 30-27 in overtime laying 4.5 points at home.

Clemson (12-1 SU, 6-7 ATS), back in the final four for the second straight year, held off Virginia Tech in the Dec. 3 ACC Championship Game, winning 42-35 as a 10-point fave. The Tigers lost a thrilling national championship game to Alabama last year, 45-40 as a 6-point ‘dog.

“Huge pros vs. Joes distinction here,” Holt said of the second CFP semifinal. “Six times as much dollars wagered on the Clemson Tigers on account, but on the other hand, people coming into the casinos and betting over the counter at the sportsbooks, seven times the dollars wagered on Ohio State Buckeyes. So the public loves Ohio State, the sharper players love Clemson in this one. You could make a really good case for both sides here.”

CG books opened the Buckeyes at -3 back on Dec. 4, moved to 3.5 a day later, then back to 3 on Dec. 8, where the number remained until Friday afternoon, when Clemson cash forced a move down to 2.5.

“This is gonna be a great game,” Holt said.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Citrus Bowl betting preview: Louisiana State vs Louisville

No. 20 Louisiana State Tigers vs No. 13 Louisville Cardinals (+3, 59.5)

Game to be played at Camping World Stadium, Orlando, Florida

Lamar Jackson toyed with defenses for most of 2016 en route to becoming Louisville's first Heisman Trophy winner, but he'll likely face his toughest test of the season on Dec. 31 at the Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl in Orlando, Fla against LSU. The sophomore quarterback is the only player in FBS history to throw for 30-plus touchdowns and rush for 20-plus TDs in the regular season. The Tigers rank sixth in FBS in scoring defense (16.4 points) and 13th in total defense (323 yards per game).

LSU running back Leonard Fournette will not play after declaring for the NFL Draft earlier in the month. One year after rushing for 1,953 yards and 22 touchdowns - both school records - as a sophomore, the 2015 All-American was dogged by an August left ankle injury that forced him to miss four regular-season games as a junior. Despite missing nearly half the season, he'll leave as the Tigers' single-season leader in rushing yards per game (162.8), career rushing yards per game (119.7) and 200-yard games (five).

The Cardinals ended the regular season with a thud - allowing 11 sacks and committing 15 penalties in a 36-10 setback at Houston before losing 41-38 to Kentucky to snap a five-game winning streak in the series - and things have only gotten worse since. Linebackers James Hearns and Henry Famurewa were among three students shot near the school's campus hours after Jackson won the Heisman on Dec. 10. Less than a week later, the school suspended offensive coordinator Lonnie Galloway for his role in the Wake Forest play-sharing scandal.

TV: 11 a.m. ET, ABC.

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened the line with LSU as 3.5-point favorites and that has been bet down to a field goal. The total opened at 60 and has been bet down half-point to 59.5.

WEATHER REPORT: It should be a gorgeous afternoon for football at Camping World Stadium in Orlando. The forecast is calling for sunny skies, minimal winds out of the south and temperatures in the mid-70’s.

INJURY REPORT:

Louisiana State - FB Bry’Kiethon Mouton (probable, undisclosed), WR Travin Dural (probable, undisclosed), DE Arden Key (probable, shoulder), CB Tre’Davious White (probable, ankle), DT Christian LaCouture (doubtful, knee), DE Andre Anthony (doubtful, academics), OL Donavaughn Campbell (out, shoulder), RB Leonard Fournette (out, ankle), LB Kendell Beckwith (out, knee)

Louisville - RB L.J. Scott (questionable, hamstring), WR Jamari Staples (questionable, undisclosed), LB James Hearns (doubtful, elbow), LB Henry Famurewa (doubtful, foot)

ABOUT LSU (7-4 SU, 5-6 ATS, 2-7-2 OU): Darrius Guice emerged as one of the most explosive running backs in the country, averaging a league-high 7.9 yards per carry and running for a SEC-best 14 touchdowns while finishing second in the conference in rushing (1,249), even breaking Fournette's single-game school rushing record 33 days after he set it with 285 yards against Texas A&M. Danny Etling threw for 324 yards versus the Aggies as well, giving the Tigers a 300-yard passer and 200-yard rusher in the same game for the first time in school history. The defense is led by a pair of All-Americans in junior safety Jamal Adams (70 tackles) and senior linebacker Kendell Beckwith (9.1 tackles per game, second in the SEC).

ABOUT LOUISVILLE (9-3 SU, 5-6-1 ATS, 8-4 OU): Despite committing five of the Cardinals' seven turnovers during their season-ending losing streak, Jackson totaled five touchdowns to set the ACC record for touchdowns responsible for in a single season (51) while breaking the single-season school marks for rushing yards (1,538) and 100-yard rushing performances (eight). Tight end Cole Hikutini (eight touchdowns), who is one of four Cardinals with at least 593 receiving yards, joins wideouts James Quick (six), Jaylen Smith (six) and Reggie Bonnafon (five) with at least five receiving touchdowns. Hearns, who is tied for the ACC lead with five forced fumbles and leads the team with eight sacks, is expected to make a full recovery, as is Famurewa and the cheerleader involved in the shootings.

TRENDS:

* Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 bowl games.
* Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.
* Cardinals are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 4-0-2 in Tigers last 6 games following a straight up win.
* Over is 9-2 in Cardinals last 11 games on fieldturf.

CONSENSUS: The betting public has their eye on the Cardinals with 60 percent of the wagers on the underdog. Over is grabbing 54 percent.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Tigers (7-4) at Cardinals (9-3)

Date: December 31, 2016 11:00 AM EDT

The Citrus Bowl has one of the best matchups outside of the major bowls. It has the best player, too.

Heisman Trophy-winning sophomore quarterback Lamar Jackson tries to add to his 51 total touchdowns when No. 13 Louisville takes on No. 20 LSU on Saturday in Orlando, Fla., (11 a.m. ET, ABC) in what will be Tigers coach Ed Orgeron's first game since the school lifted the "interim" from his title in late November.

The game kicks off at 11 a.m. ET on Saturday in Orlando, Fla.

Orgeron went 5-2 as the replacement for fired Les Miles. Louisville was in contention for the College Football Playoff in mid-November before it lost its final two games -- at Houston and to state rival Kentucky -- to finish 9-3.

"Those last two games, I'm still mad about those," Jackson said.

Jackson ran for 1,538 yards and 21 touchdowns and he passed for 3,390 yards and 30 touchdowns. He wasn't at his best in the final two games -- Houston sacked him 11 times, and he committed four turnovers against Kentucky -- but still posted an easy Heisman victory.

"The last guy I've seen like that was called Michael Vick," Orgeron said.

It will be quite a challenge for LSU (7-4), but defensive coordinator Dave Aranda has the personnel to make life difficult for the dual-threat quarterback. LSU is sixth nationally in scoring defense (16.4 points per game) and 14th in total defense (323.0 yards per game).

Only Texas A&M broke the 21-point barrier against the Tigers this season.

"We know he is going to get out there and compete, and we know we're going to get out there and compete," LSU cornerback Donte Jackson said of Lamar Jackson.

"So that really brings more hype to the game. We understand that he is a dynamic player, we understand that he's the Heisman Trophy winner ... but we're going to treat it like a regular game. He's a great player, but we're a great defense, and we're going to be ready to play."

LSU safety Jamal Adams is a potential first-round pick, and cornerback Tre'Davious White earned All-America honors. LSU will be without its leading tackler, linebacker Kendell Beckwith, who suffered a knee injury that kept him out of the regular-season finale.

The Tigers also won't have star running back Leonard Fournette. The junior, who was battling an ankle injury, signed with an agent and is preparing for the NFL draft. His absence is mitigated by sophomore running back Derrius Guice, who was superb as an injury replacement and complement to Fournette this season.

Guice set the school's single-game rushing record on Thanksgiving with 285 yards on 37 carries against Texas A&M. He also rushed for 252 yards in Week 9 vs. Arkansas. Guice has 1,249 rushing yards, averaging 8.0 per carry.

"Guice is rolling and moving," center Ethan Pocic said. "I'm confident in all our backs. We'll be all right."

LSU needs its physical run game to ease the defensive pressure on quarterback Danny Etling and a limited passing game.

Etling threw for 1,906 yards on 60-percent passing with nine touchdowns and four interceptions this season. But the Tigers are only 101st nationally in passing at 187.6 yards per game.

Louisville's defense might have been overshadowed by the team's explosive offense, but it was excellent for most of the season, allowing an average of 316.3 yards per game. The Cardinals, however, will be without starting outside linebacker James Hearns (who has a team-leading eight sacks) and his backup, Henry Famuerewa. They were reportedly injured in a shooting near campus in December.

The biggest question in the Citrus Bowl goes back to Jackson against LSU's defense. The Cardinals have seven receivers with double-digit receptions, and they all average more than 12.2 yards per catch.

Wide receiver James Quick has 42 catches for 688 yards and six scores; tight end Cole Hikutini has 49 receptions for 656 yards and eight touchdowns; receiver Jaylen Smith has 599 yards and six scores on 27 catches.

Louisville loves to use vertical routes to hit big plays. If the receivers are covered, then that just means Jackson has room to take off on his own.

"LSU is very aggressive. They play lot of man coverage," Smith said. "They're fast, they're strong, they're physical. They are a typical SEC secondary. It will be fun to go against them."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

TaxSlayer Bowl betting preview: Georgia Tech vs Kentucky

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs Kentucky Wildcats (+3.5, 62.5)

Game to be played at EverBank Field, Jacksonville, Florida

Two of the top rushing offenses in the country collide when Georgia Tech and Kentucky meet in the TaxSlayer Bowl on Dec. 31 in Jacksonville. The Yellow Jackets, whose string of 18 consecutive bowl appearances was snapped last season, led the ACC and sit 10th nationally at 257.4 yards per game on the ground. The Wildcats, who are making their first bowl appearance since 2010, rank third in the SEC and 16th in the nation in rushing yards per game (241.3).

Georgia Tech started its season 3-3 before getting on track, winning five of its final six games while averaging 285.7 rushing yards per game during that stretch. “We got fortunate and got hot a little bit, and started playing a little bit better and really finished up the season on a positive note,” Yellow Jackets head coach Paul Johnson told reporters. While the rushing offense is critical to Georgia Tech’s chances, quarterback Justin Thomas (1,454 yards passing, 562 yards rushing) is a two-way threat who engineered late game-winning drives through the air against Boston College and Georgia.

Kentucky features a two-pronged rushing attack led by a pair of 1,000-yard rushers in Stanley Williams (1,135 yards) and SEC All-Freshman team honoree Benny Snell (1,079 yards) with Snell setting freshman school marks for rushing yards, 100-yard games and touchdowns. “I think it’s impressive to have a true freshman do that,” Wildcats head coach Mark Stoops told reporters. “He’s been steady.” The Wildcats are 230 yards and two touchdowns away from setting school single-season records in both categories.

TV: 11 a.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: The line opened at Georgia Tech -4 and was quickly dropped to 3.5, where it has held firm. The total opened at 60 and that wasn’t enough for bettors as it rose as high as 63, before fading to the current number of 62.5.

WEATHER REPORT: It should be a beautiful afternoon for football at Everbank field in Jacksonville. The forecast is calling for mostly clear skies, minimal winds and temperatures in the mid-60’s.

INJURY REPORT:

Georgia Tech - DL Jordan Woods (questionable, upper body)

Kentucky - WR Jeff Badet (questionable, hip), LB Jordan Jones (questionable, back)

ABOUT GEORGIA TECH (8-4 SU, 6-4-1 ATS, 6-4-1 OU): Johnson credits the offensive line with solidifying the team after an up-and-down opening half of the season, but the Yellow Jackets will be without leading rusher Marcus Marshall (624 yards) after the sophomore announced his transfer to James Madison. Freshman Dedrick Mills has rushed for 602 yards and 11 touchdowns in only eight games, while Thomas accounted for 459 yards of total offense in an October victory over Duke and passed for 164 yards against Georgia. The Yellow Jackets surrendered only 21.3 points per game in winning their last three contests, including an upset victory at Virginia Tech and a rally from 13 points down in the fourth quarter to knock off Georgia.

ABOUT KENTUCKY (7-5 SU, 7-5 ATS, 7-5 OU): Williams finished the regular season fifth in the SEC in rushing and Snell placed eighth, providing the power for a Wildcats’ offense that saw quarterback Stephen Johnson battle inconsistency and injury. Kentucky punctuated its breakout season with an upset of in-state rival Louisville, winning five of its last seven games. Sophomore linebacker Jordan Jones, who earned second-team All-SEC honors, recorded 100 tackles (14 for loss) in anchoring a defense that ranked in the bottom third nationally in allowing 31.2 points per game.

TRENDS:

* Yellow Jackets are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.
* Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games.
* Over is 5-1 in Yellow Jackets last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 4-1 in Wildcats last 5 vs. ACC.

CONSENSUS: The Wildcats are the team of choice in this one, with 57 percent taking Kentucky. 55 percent of taking the Over.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Peach Bowl betting preview: Washington vs Alabama

No. 4 Washington Huskies vs No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (-13.5, 52.5)

Game to be played at Georgia Dome, Atlanta, Georgia

Top-ranked Alabama begins its pursuit of its fifth national championship in 10 seasons under coach Nick Saban in the Peach Bowl when it takes on No. 4 Washington on Dec. 31 in the College Football Playoff semifinal contest. The Crimson Tide defeated Clemson in last season's title game and have won their last 25 overall games. The Huskies have ascended quickly under third-year coach Chris Petersen and are enjoying their best season since the 1991 Don James-coached unbeaten squad shared the national championship with Miami.

The quarterbacks are highly productive but pack different skill sets as Washington's Jake Browning is an efficient pro-style signal caller while Alabama's Jalen Hurts is a multi-faceted player who runs nearly as well as he throws. Browning, a sophomore, passed for 3,280 yards and a school-record 42 touchdowns, while Hurts accounted for 34 scores (22 passing, 12 rushing) and is striving to join Oklahoma's Jamelle Holieway (1985) as the only true freshmen quarterbacks to lead a team to a national title. "I'm a firm believer in age being nothing but a number," the 18-year-old Hurts told reporters. "And I feel like if you step up to any situation and you're able to play your game, be confident, have the poise you need to have, you'll be alright."

Both teams excel at scoring points while not on offense, particularly a Crimson Tide squad that totaled 14 non-offensive touchdowns, matching Southern Mississippi (2011) for the most in FBS since 1996. Alabama's non-offensive touchdowns break down this way: five interception returns, five fumble returns, three punt returns and one blocked field goal. The Huskies have two superb returners in juniors Josh Ross (one kickoff return score this season, four in his career) and Dante Pettis (two punt return TDs this season, five in his career).

TV: 3 p.m. ET, ESPN

LINE HISTORY: Alabama opened as 13.5-point favorites but that spread initially wasn’t enough as the line was bet up to 16.5 the first week of December. Since, the line has faded down returning to the opening number of 13.5. The total hit the board at 55 and dropped to 52.5.

WEATHER REPORT: Dome

INJURY REPORT:

Washington - WR Brayden Lenius (questionable, undisclosed), LB Joe Mathis (out, foot), LB Azeem Victor (out, leg)

Alabama - DB Marlon Humphrey (probable, hamstring), WR ArDarius Stewart (probable, undisclosed), LB Keith holcombe (probable, leg), DB Tony Brown (probable, undisclosed), OL Cam Robinson (questionable, undisclosed), DL Dakota Ball (out indefinitely, finger), OL Josh Casher (out for season, foot)

ABOUT WASHINGTON (12-1 SU, 7-6 ATS, 8-4-1 OU): Browning completed 63.2 percent of his passes and Ross totaled 76 receptions for 1,122 yards and 17 touchdowns for the Huskies, who average 44.5 points per game. Sophomore running back Myles Gaskin rushed for 1,339 yards and 10 scores and junior backup Lavon Coleman owns a glitzy 7.8 average while rushing for 836 yards and seven touchdowns. The defense allows 17.2 points per game and features standout junior free safety Budda Baker (65 tackles, two interceptions) and senior outside linebacker Psalm Wooching (team-high six sacks) but remains without two of its top players in senior outside linebacker Joe Mathis (foot) and junior middle linebacker Azeem Victor (leg).

ABOUT ALABAMA (13-0 SU, 9-4 ATS, 6-7 OU): Senior defensive end Jonathan Allen won the Nagurski Trophy as the national defensive player of the year and his standout campaign includes 8 1/2 sacks and two fumble-return touchdowns for a unit that leads the nation in scoring defense (11.8) and total defense (247.8). The defense didn't miss a beat when it lost star senior safety Eddie Jackson to a season-ending broken leg and the list of standouts include senior outside linebackers Ryan Anderson (team-high 17 tackles for losses) and Tim Williams (15 1/2 tackles for losses) and sophomore safety Mikah Fitzpatrick (team-best five interceptions). Hurts passed for 2,592 yards and rushed for 841 and possesses two solid targets in sophomore wideout Calvin Ridley (66 receptions for 727 yards and seven touchdowns) and junior receiver ArDarius Stewart (52 for 852 and eight scores).

TRENDS:

* Huskies are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games.
* Crimson Tide are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
* Over is 4-1 in Huskies last 5 non-conference games.
* Over is 9-2 in Crimson Tide last 11 bowl games.

CONSENSUS: The Crimson Tide are the team of choice in this one, with 52 percent taking the favorite. The total is getting 64 percent of wagers on the Over.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Wildcats (7-5) at Yellow Jackets (8-4)

Date: December 31, 2016 11:00 AM EDT

Two teams that used strong finishes as their tickets to the postseason will clash when the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets and Kentucky Wildcats meet in the TaxSlayer Bowl on New Year's Eve.

Kickoff at Everbank Field in Jacksonville will be at 11 a.m. Saturday with ESPN airing the action.

The Yellow Jackets (8-4) go into the game riding a three-game winning streak and have won five of their last six games, including a 30-20 win over then-No. 18 Virginia Tech.

After falling one win short of bowl eligibility the last two years, the Wildcats (7-5) won their last two games and five of their last seven, including a 41-38 victory over then-No. 11 Louisville in their regular-season finale.

"Last season we came up short to go to a bowl game, we went 5-7, so this year all season and all summer we talked about finishing," Kentucky coach Mark Stoops said, "and we're certainly very proud of the way we finished the regular season.

"This game is an extension of that so it's very important for us to try to get the victory. That could lead to a lot of momentum with the fan base, with season tickets, and with support."

Coach Paul Johnson's Yellow Jackets split their first six games, winning their first three and losing their next three.

"We started out 3-3 and kind of had a break and felt like the season was just kind of mediocre and just sitting there," Johnson said. "We got fortunate and got hot a little bit and started playing a little bit better and really finished up the season on a positive note."

Senior quarterback Justin Thomas leads Tech's triple-option attack that often is credited with causing some consternation among opposing defensive coordinators.

Johnson, however, doesn't see what all the fuss is about.

"We don't ourselves see it being all that different," he said. "We're basically an option football team offensively. We try and run forms of the option, and we change things up every once in a while.

"It's just something we've been doing a long time and something where we know what we want to do. We have an idea of what we want to do offensively."

In addition to his numbers -- 562 yards rushing and 1,454 passing -- Thomas has been a clutch performer for the Jackets. Four times in his 37 starts he has engineered last-minute scoring drives that have resulted in wins for the Jackets, including two this season.

The Jackets scored on B-back Dedrick Mills' four-yard run with 35 seconds remaining to get by Georgia Southern 17-14 in their opener in Dublin, Ireland, and on A-back Qua Searcy's six-yard scamper off a busted play with 30 seconds left for the 28-27 win over Georgia in their finale.

But the key to the season's turnaround was improved play on defense.

"Defensively, we played a little better during the back half of the year and got some turnovers and stops," Johnson said. "Early on, we really struggled on defense getting off the field."

Kentucky stumbled out of the gate, blowing a 25-point lead to lose to Southern Mississippi 44-35 in their opener and then getting demolished 45-7 at Florida. But despite losing starting quarterback Drew Barker to a back injury in their third game, the Wildcats got their season in gear by winning five of their next six games with the only loss a 34-6 setback at Alabama.

Junior college transfer Stephen Johnson took over for Barker and passed for 1,852 yards and rushed for another 278.

Of course, it helped -- a lot -- that the Wildcats also got 1,000-yard rushing seasons out of junior Boom Williams (1,135) and freshman Benny Snell (1,079) to take some of the load off of Johnson. Stoops really didn't see that coming.

"Probably not," he said. "We probably didn't anticipate that. I knew we had good depth at running back and some very skilled players. Maybe we would have had three if Jojo didn't get hurt that for a while."

That would be senior running back Jojo Kemp, who finished with 321 yards in nine games.

The TaxSlayer Bowl will be Kentucky's first bowl since 2010, which ended a streak of five consecutive postseason appearances. The Wildcats are 8-7 all-time in bowls.

Georgia Tech will be playing in its 44th bowl, which ranks 13th all-time. The Jackets are 24-19 all-time in bowls.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Huskies (12-1) at Crimson Tide (13-0)

Date: December 31, 2016 3:00 PM EDT

Nick Saban is part of the four-team College Football Playoff for the third consecutive season and the Alabama coach was quick to make a crucial observation.

Saturday's national semifinal against No. 4 Washington might be known as the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl, but the carnival atmosphere and team competitions during the build-up to the game all seem like unnecessary second-rate distractions to Saban.

You know, because there is a mighty important game looming that top-ranked Alabama needs to win.

"What I've learned about this game is your mindset of: Is this a bowl game or is this a playoff game?" Saban told reporters. "I think every player has to decide for himself (and) every coach has to decide for himself because we are trying to create a balance for everyone in our organization because it is a playoff game."

There is no doubt that only the winning team plays again this season as the Crimson Tide (13-0) look to defend last season's national title and win their 26th consecutive game when they face the Huskies (12-1) in Atlanta (3 p.m. ET, ESPN).

The Alabama players understand Saban's rationale, even if their youthful exuberance leads to cravings to enjoy the experience.

But the bigger picture wins out and the all-business approach prevails.

"I wouldn't say joyless existence. That's just the mindset you've got to have if you want to be great and have a legendary legacy," Crimson Tide senior defensive end Jonathan Allen said. "If you want to do that, you have to have that relentlessness to your work ethic and your grind.

"Thinking about last year's national championship isn't going to help us get this one."

Allen is one of the reasons Alabama rates as heavy favorites to slay the Huskies, who are playing in their most important game since claiming a share of the 1991 national championship by beating Michigan in the Rose Bowl.

The 6-foot-3, 291-pounder won the Nagurski Trophy as the national defensive player of the year and heads a unit that leads the nation in scoring defense (11.8) and total defense (247.8). Allen recorded 8 1/2 sacks and contributed two fumble-return touchdowns.

Allen also made an interesting discovery -- to him -- while studying a Washington offense that averages 44.5 points and 477.2 yards per game. He happened to notice the Huskies average 210 yards per game on the ground in addition to 267.2 through the air.

"Going in, I thought they were just a pass-happy team," Allen said. "But when you look at it, I'd say they kind of favor the run more. That's definitely a challenge. But as a defensive lineman, I'm excited about it. I love to go against teams that like to run the ball."

Huskies sophomore Myles Gaskin fuels the running attack with 1,339 yards and 10 touchdowns. Junior backup Lavon Coleman sports a stellar 7.8 average while rushing for 836 yards and seven touchdowns.

Sophomore quarterback Jake Browning passed for 3,280 yards and a school-record 42 touchdowns while winning Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Year honors. He threw a school-record six touchdown passes twice this season, and is considered to be just scratching his potential.

"He's still a work in progress," Washington coach Chris Petersen said. "We all are. And I think that's probably the best thing about him is that he's really hungry to try to master this position if that's possible."

Avoiding miscues will be a crucial element for the Huskies, who have committed just 12 (seven interceptions, five fumbles) all season.

That's because the Crimson Tide have scored 10 defensive touchdowns (five on interceptions, five on fumble returns) as the most opportunistic defense in the country.

"We've done a good job of taking care of the ball so far this year, but none of that really matters if you turn around and have three turnovers in this game," Browning said. "We've got to take care of the ball like we have been, have some explosive plays and execute at a high level."

Alabama quarterback Jalen Hurts is a multi-dimensional threat who has accounted for 34 touchdowns (22 passing, 12 rushing). He has passed for 2,592 yards and rushed for 841 while masterfully running the offense.

Hurts also is aiming to join Oklahoma's Jamelle Holieway (1985) as the only true freshman quarterbacks to lead a team to a national title.

"I'm a firm believer in age being nothing but a number," the 18-year-old Hurts told reporters. "And I feel like if you step up to any situation and you're able to play your game, be confident, have the poise you need to have, you'll be all right."

Hurts will be attacking a Washington defense that is missing two of its best players in senior outside linebacker Joe Mathis (foot) and junior middle linebacker Azeem Victor (leg). The Huskies allow 17.2 points per game and possess a standout in junior free safety Budda Baker (65 tackles, two interceptions).

Washington also hopes to get a big play in the return game. Junior receiver John Ross, who caught 76 passes for 1,122 yards and 17 touchdowns, has four career kickoff-return touchdowns. Junior wideout Dante Pettis (14 touchdown catches this season) has five career punt-return scores.

In addition to Alabama's 10 defensive touchdowns, the Crimson Tide also scored on three punt returns and one blocked field goal.

The winner of this contest faces either No. 2 Clemson or No. 3 Ohio State in the national title game on Jan. 9.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Fiesta Bowl betting preview: Ohio State vs Clemson

No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes vs No. 2 Clemson Tigers (+3, 59)

Game to be played at University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, Arizona

Clemson and Ohio State will meet in the semifinals of the College Football Playoff when they square off Dec. 31 in the PlayStation Fiesta Bowl in Glendale, Ariz. Both teams have been selected for the four-team playoff for the second time in the three-year history. The Tigers reached the national championship game before suffering a 45-40 loss to Alabama last season, while the Buckeyes defeated the Crimson Tide and Oregon en route to the 2014 title.

Ohio State is the first team to be selected for the College Football Playoff without winning its conference championship. The Buckeyes missed out on the Big Ten title game thanks to a 24-21 midseason loss at Penn State, but they won their last five games of the regular season, including a double-overtime win over sixth-ranked Michigan. The Nittany Lions defeated Wisconsin 38-31 in the Big Ten championship game but finished at No. 5 in the playoff rankings.

For all the big-name offensive stars on both sides, the defenses could end up telling the story. Ohio State ranks in the top six nationally in passing defense, total defense and scoring defense, and the Buckeyes have piled up 19 interceptions – the fourth-most in the country – which bodes well against star Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson, who has thrown 15 interceptions, though only two in the past three games. The Tigers boast a well-balanced unit that ranks ninth in total defense, a necessity against the Buckeyes’ powerful ground game.

TV: 7 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: The lined opened with Ohio State as 3-point favorites and was briefly bet up half-point to 3.5, than returned to 3 where it has held. The total opened at 60.5 and has faded two full points to 58.5.

WEATHER REPORT: Dome

INJURY REPORT:

Ohio State - WR Corey Smith (probable, undisclosed), OL Kevin Feder (questionable, foot), DL Tracy Sprinkle (questionable, leg), DT Malik Barrow (questionable, illness)

Clemson - DT Scott Pagano (probable, foot), OL John Simpson (probable, leg), DE Richard Yeargin (probable, knee), CB Adrian Baker (questionable, knee), OT Jake Fruhmorgen (doubtful, shoulder), WR Trevion Thompson (out, wrist)

ABOUT OHIO STATE (11-1 SU, 6-6 ATS, 6-6 OU): The Buckeyes lean on one of the nation’s top running games, averaging 258.3 yards per game on the ground behind the trio of Mike Weber (1,072 yards, 9 TDs), Curtis Samuel (704 yards, 8 TDs) and quarterback J.T. Barrett (847 yards, 9 TDs). Barrett has done a solid imitation of his counterpart Watson, as he has passed for 2,428 yards with 24 touchdowns and just five interceptions. The Buckeyes do a good job of pressuring the quarterback – Tyquan Lewis leads the way with 7 1/2 sacks and 10 tackles for loss – and they will need to make Watson uncomfortable to have success slowing down the Tigers.

ABOUT CLEMSON (12-1 SU, 6-7 ATS, 7-6 OU): The Tigers are tough up front on both sides of the ball, which they hope will help them slow Ohio State’s ground game and force Barrett to try to beat them with his arm. Despite a strong offensive line, Clemson has been inconsistent in its ability to run the ball, though Wayne Gallman (1,002 yards, 15 TDs) has gotten on track late in the season and Watson could look to run more after staying in the pocket more often during the regular season. Watson has a number of capable targets, but the Buckeyes likely will try to lock down star Mike Williams (84 receptions, 1,171 yards, 10 TDs) and make the lesser-known receivers beat them.

TRENDS:

* Buckeyes are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.
* Tigers are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 4-1 in Buckeyes last 5 vs. ACC.
* Over is 5-0 in Tigers last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.

CONSENSUS: The public is backing the ACC champion Tigers with 61 percent of wagers on Clemson. The over is getting 58 percent of the action.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Buckeyes (11-1) at Tigers (12-1)

Date: December 31, 2016 7:00 PM EDT

GLENDALE, Ariz. -- When Clemson and Ohio State meet in the PlayStation Fiesta Bowl on New Year's Eve, they will ring in the new and the old.

The three-year-old FBS national championship playoff format is neither the Ohio State open nor the Clemson invitational, but it has skewed that way.

No. 3 Ohio State (11-1) won the inaugural four-team playoff in 2014, and No. 2 Clemson (12-1) lost a heartbreaker in the championship game at the same University of Phoenix Stadium last season, when quarterback Deshaun Watson shredded Alabama for 478 yards, 405 passing, in a 45-40 loss, outplaying Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry in the process.

Like Clark Griswold and mistletoe, Clemson, Ohio State and Alabama have become staples of the reconstituted holiday Final Four. The Fiesta winner will advance to the title game Jan. 9.

"We've set out to be right here where we are," said Clemson coach Dabo Swinney, whose team finished 14-1 last season. "We look forward to playing on the big stage."

Clemson lost once this year, to a Pitt team that loaded the box with seven and sometimes eight defenders in order to contain the running game and force Watson to throw. It worked, even as Watson completed 52-of-70 passes for 580 yards, three touchdowns and three interception. Pitt stopped a fourth-and-one run in the final 90 seconds and drove for a game-winning field goal and a 43-42 victory Nov. 12.

Ohio State's only loss came when Penn State blocked a punt and a field goal in the fourth quarter, returning the blocked field goal for a touchdown in a 24-21 comeback victory on Oct. 22.

Each survived other scares. North Carolina State missed a potential game-winning field goal on the final play of regulation before the Tigers won in overtime. They scored 17 fourth-quarter point to beat Florida State by three, and Corder Tankersley's late interception sealed the victory over Virginia Tech in the ACC title game.

The Buckeyes beat Wisconsin in overtime, and linebacker Vince Worley intercepted a two-point conversion attempt in a one-point victory over Michigan State. In the final game of the regular season the Buckeyes made a field goal as time expired before Curtis Samuel scored on a 15-yard run for a 30-27 double-overtime victory over Michigan, one play after a controversial spot on fourth down.

"It takes a few years off your life expectancy," Ohio State offensive coordinator Ed Warriner joked said of the tight squeezes. "It's good. You grow from that, and you gain confidence that in critical situations your players can make plays."

These players do make plays.

Watson, a junior who is expected to declare for the NFL draft, orchestrates a Clemson offense that averages 505.7 yards and 40.2 points a game. He threw for 3,914 yards and 37 touchdowns while rushing for 526 yards and six more scores. He trails only Philip Rivers and former Tigers quarterback Tajh Boyd in total offense in ACC history.

Watson said his success comes from having that mentality that "I'm good, but good isn't good enough. I'm striving to be great. Try to be perfect each and every week. Something that I will never achieve, but I can always try."

Junior halfback Wayne Gallman, who confirmed he will enter the draft, rushed for 1,002 yards and 15 touchdowns. Junior Mike Williams, another early NFL entry, leads a talented receiving corps with 84 receptions for 1,171 yards and 10 touchdowns. He is projected to be the first wide receiver taken in the 2017 draft.

Quarterback J.T. Barrett, running back Mike Weber and athletic runner/receiver Samuel helped Ohio State average 480 yards and 40.2 points a game. Junior Barrett has passed for 2,428 yards and 24 touchdowns and rushed for 847 yards and nine touchdowns. He is 26-3 as a starter.

Clemson safety Jadar Johnson, who batted down a pass in the end zone to seal a 19-13 victory over Auburn in the first week of the season, created a small stir with his critique of Barrett this week.

"We have played better quarterbacks than him," Johnson said. "I'm not taking anything away from him. I don't think he is a bad player. He is definitely a good player, but he does not stand out as one of the best quarterbacks that we have played this year."

The teams last played three years ago, when Clemson won, 40-35 in the Orange Bowl following the 2013 season. Boyd had 505 yards in total offense and Buckeyes quarterback Braxton Miller threw for 224.

"It was a little different then, because I feel like Braxton Miller can throw better than J.T.," Johnson said. "I don't think (Barrett) throws that well. I'm not saying he can't throw at all. He definitely can put it out there. But I definitely feel like Braxton Miller was a better thrower."

Clemson entered the bowl season with 46 sacks, second in NCAA Division I. It is led by 6-foot-3, 305-pound defensive tackle Carlos Watkins, who had 8 1-2 whilesix-foot-4, 310-pound tackle Christian Wilkins had 3 1-2.

The Buckeyes have had trouble with pass protection recently, giving up 11 sacks in their final two games, eight against Michigan and three to Michigan State. They often keep an extra blocker to help Barrett.

"They've got some dudes, that's for sure," Miller said. "I think they're at there at the top as far as just disrupting things."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Saturday's Bowl Action

We are just days away from the college football playoffs getting going as Alabama, Washington, Ohio State, and Clemson are all vying for the sport's top prize.

While much of the talk leading into these two Semi-Finals games surrounds the Ohio State/Clemson matchup as the much more intriguing game (the spread is in the -3 range), it would be a mistake for bettors to sleep on a Washington team that everyone is already counting out and expecting to be Alabama's next victim en route to a perfect campaign. Yes, the spread is in the double digits, but Alabama isn't immune to feeling the pressure of the situation, especially when they are trying to repeat as CFB national champions.

National Semi-Final #1: Alabama (-14) vs. Washington; Total set at 53

The line for this game has bounced back and forth since the matchup was announced, as 'Bama opened up at -14.5, got bet up as high as -16.5, before seeing action come back the other way. There is no question that the Crimson Tide have been college football's best team all year long, dominating opponents with a NFL-caliber defense that gives up just 11.8 points per game.

Eight of Alabama's 13 opponents were held to 10 points or less, and with those kind of numbers it often doesn't matter much that you've got a true freshman QB in Jalen Hurts under center just “managing” the game as he's asked. There really is no need for Alabama to change much as everything has worked well for them so far, but Washington is by far the best team the Tide have seen this year and Nick Saban might have to ask a little bit more from Hurts then just simply being a “game manager.”

Washington has heard all the stories about their upcoming trip to the slaughterhouse for a month now and have to be chomping at the bit to get onto the field. The Huskies are well aware of the challenge that they face in playing Alabama, but they've rose to the occasion all year long, except for a slip up against USC.

Many talking heads and pundits out there will use that USC game as evidence as to while Washington has no chance in this contest as they were defeated by the Trojans while Alabama blew USC out. But continually beating down and discrediting professional athletes (CFB players might as well be professionals) and telling them they've got no chance to beat a certain opponent only fuels their fire.

We've already seen that play out numerous times this year when everyone was writing off the Cleveland Cavaliers down 3-1 vs. Golden State, the Chicago Cubs down 3-1 to Cleveland, and more recently, and arguably more relevant, the Ottawa Redblacks in the CFL beating the heavily favored Calgary Stampeders in the Grey Cup. Ottawa grew sick and tired about hearing how they had no chance in that game and went out to prove a point. They jumped all over Calgary early and often and ended up prevailing in overtime. The Washington Huskies are more then capable of making a similar statement here and put a major wrinkle in Alabama's championship plans.

It may be tough to bet on the outright upset here, but as the recent money on Washington suggests, grabbing all those points in this high stakes game might not be a bad idea.

National Semi-Final #2: Ohio State (-3) vs. Clemson; Total set at 59

This is the game college football fans are more excited for because of the likelihood it's going to be a close contest. Clemson is looking to avenge their National Championship loss a season ago and there is no question that the experience edge lies on their sideline. But while many are pointing to that edge and anticipating a Clemson/Alabama return game in the Championship, Ohio State is more then capable of not only winning, but dominating this game.

While both teams lost once this season, there is no question that Clemson's 43-42 defeat to Pittsburgh was much worse. Ohio State's defeat came to a Penn State team that finished 5th in the polls while Pittsburgh was nowhere to be found. Clemson may have finished the year strong, but they've shown at times this year that they are capable of self-inflicted mistakes and letting teams hang around when they shouldn't be.

The latter of those statements isn't a concern here as Ohio State is more then deserving of being #2 in the land, but those self-inflicted wounds Clemson is partially known for will cost them dearly in this matchup.

Remember, aside from that loss to Pittsburgh, Clemson's biggest struggles on defense came against strong running teams that have a QB that isn't afraid to scramble (Florida State and Louisville). That's basically the definition of the 2016 Ohio State Buckeyes and they've got a much, much better defense then those two previously mentioned teams to keep Deshaun Watson and the Tigers offense in check.

While 65% of the ML bets have come in on Clemson and a little less (55%) grabbing the points with the underdog, I see a strong case for Ohio State to win and cover the number, helping prove that the Big 10 was indeed the best overall conference in college football this season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bowl Tech Trends - Week 3
By Bruce Marshall

Saturday, Dec. 31

LSU vs. LOUISVILLE (Citrus Bowl)...LSU -2 SU and vs. line after Orgeron took over early in season. Les Miles was 1-4 vs. line last five years in bowls. Petrino however no covers last three this season and 2-6 vs. spread last eight in 2016.

Slight to LSU, based on Orgeron trends.


KENTUCKY vs. GEORGIA TECH (Taxslayer Gator Bowl)...First bowl for Cats since 2010 Compass Bowl with Joker Phillips. UK 7-2 vs. line last nine this season and 5-1 last six as dog. Paul Johnson just 2-5 vs. spread in bowls with GT and no covers last five as chalk away from home.

Kentucky, based on team trends.


WASHINGTON vs. ALABAMA (CFP Peach Bowl)... Nick only 1-3 vs. line last four bowls, but 6-4 in role since arriving at Bama in 2007. Tide 8-3-2 vs. line this season, 13-5-2 last 20 on board. Also 11-3 vs. line last 14 away from Tuscaloosa. Chris Petersen only 5-6 as dog with Huskies, though Petersen 6-3 vs. spread in bowls with Boise and U-Dub.

Alabama, based on team trends.


OHIO STATE vs. CLEMSON (CFP Fiesta Bowl)...Dabo beat Urban Meyer in Orange Bowl three years ago. Dabo 9-3 last 12 as dog, and Clemson has covered in last five bowl games. Buckeyes have covered last three bowls and Urban Meyer 10-2 vs. spread in bowls, though OSU only 2-6 vs. spread last eight this season and 10-13 last 23 vs. spread as chalk.

Clemson, based on team trends.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF

Bowl game writeups

Dec 31
Citrus Bowl, Orlando: LSU-Louisville
Louisville’s OC was suspended for this game after Wake Forest info leak; Cardinals scored 50+ points six times this year, but they were favored by 14+ points in last seven games- big step up in competition here. Louisville is 1-1 in games with single digit spread; they have huge edge at QB with Jackson over Etling. LSU is 5-4 as a favorite this year, 3-2 in games with single digit spread. Louisville won three of last four bowls; favorites covered four of Cards’ last five bowls, covered Citrus Bowl four of last five years— SEC teams won four of last five visits to this bowl. LSU is 2-3 in last five bowls, covering once in last four as a bowl favorite. SEC non-conference favorites are 10-16 vs spread; ACC underdogs are 7-4. Under is 8-2 in LSU games this season, 4-3 in last seven Louisville games.

Tax Slayer Bowl, Jacksonville: Kentucky-Georgia Tech
Kentucky went 7-2 vs spread in its last nine games; after opening season with 44-35/44-7 losses, Wildcats finished 7-5, are in their first bowl since 2010— their last bowl win was in ’08. Kentucky is 5-2 as an underdog this year, 4-2 in games with single digit spread- they upset Louisville as a 27-point underdog in last game. Georgia Tech allowed 32.7 pts/game in 3-game midseason skid, but won five of last six games, scoring 29.7 pts/game in last three. Jackets are 3-2 as favorites, 3-3 in games with single digit spread. Tech is 2-3 in last five bowls, scoring 21 or less points three times- they were underdog in four of the five. SEC teams are 3-2 in this bowl last five years (3-2 vs spread), but all vs Big 14 teams. Over is 6-2 in Tech’s last eight games, 3-0 in last three Kentucky games.

Peach Bowl, Atlanta: Washington-Alabama
Alabama is in 4-team national title playoff for third year in row; they split semis last two years. Chris Petersen is 6-3 in bowls; his Boise State team upset Oklahoma in Fiesta Bowl 10 years ago. Washington is a dog for first time this year; they’re 4-1 vs number in games with single digit spread. Former Huskies coach Sarkisian is on Bama’s staff, will be OC next year. Atlanta site greatly favors Alabama, which doesn’t need the help. Crimson Tide is 3-2 in last five bowls, scoring 31+ points in all five games. Crimson Tide covered last seven I-A games; they’re 9-2-1 as favorites, 8-2-1 in games with double digit spread. Last four Washington games stayed under; under is 3-2 in Alabama’s last five games. Underdogs covered this game three of last four years; unusually long road trip for a bowl team.

Fiesta Bowl, Glendale AZ: Clemson-Ohio State
Buckeyes (-6.5) won this bowl 44-28 over Notre Dame LY; Meyer is 60-5 at Ohio State, 10-2 in bowl games, scoring 42-42-44 points in winning last three- they were underdog in two of them. OSU went 2-6 vs spread in its last eight games this year; they’re 6-6 as a favorite, 1-1 in games with single digit spread. Clemson scored 35+ points eight times, with only loss 43-42 at home to Pitt. Tigers are 1-0 as an underdog this year; they won four of last five bowls, losing 45-40 to Alabama in LY’s national title game. Underdogs are 3-2 vs spread in last five Fiesta Bowls. Clemson is using former QB Tajh Boyd to simulate Buckeye QB Barrett in practices. Over is 3-1 in last four Ohio State games, 3-0-1 in last four Clemson games. Tiger QB Watson is making his 34th career start. Weather not a factor; both semifinals games are in a dome.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

At the Gate - Saturday
By Mike Dempsey

We have come to the last day of 2016 and we have good betting cards at both Aqueduct and Gulfstream Park to wager on before we pop the champagne.

The feature at the Big A is the $100,000 Alex M. Robb for state breds going 1 1/16 miles on the inner track which drew a field of seven.

It is pretty tough to get by the chalk Send It In, who makes his second start off the shelf for the Todd Pletcher barn. The gelding came up a neck short against $100,000 optional claimers last out off the layoff popping a solid 102 Beyer Speed Figure.

The Gulfstream Park card features four stakes and they all drew large and competitive fields. It is mandatory payout day for the Jackpot Pick 6, but there won’t be much in the pot as a single ticket holder took down the pool yesterday.

The feature is the $75,000 Tropical Park Derby for three-year-olds going 1 1/16 miles on turf. A field of 12 will go the post and I am taking a stab with a longshot.

Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott will send out Mighty Mo, who beat Alw-1 foes as our top pick at Aqueduct on Dec. 3, returning $13.000 for the win. He is proven in stakes company, beaten just a neck in the Woodhaven back in April at Aqueduct.

The colt is a hefty 15-1 on the morning line and could help Mott have a big day. The trainer hits at just an 8% clip with first time starters but he has several very live looking firsters on the card.


Here is the opening race from Gulfstream Park to get the day off to a good start:

GP Race 1 Clm $6,250N2L (12:00 ET)
#4 Godiva's Limousine 8-1
#5 Menehune 5-2
#2 Magnanimous Mine 3-1
#8 Dioscuri 7-2

Analysis: Godiva's Limousine was not much of a threat last out in a sixth-place finish last out in his first trip over the main track here. He showed some early zip two and three back at Philly in a pair of fourth place finishes. He gets a jock switch to Panici and a stretch out to seven furlongs. Going to give this Zito runner another look here as he fits if the jock rides him more aggressively early.

Menehune goes turf to dirt and drops in for a $6,250 tag here. He has a second in four trips on fast dirt. He ran in the money on turf in his first three starts versus winners. These do not look as tough and good to see Lopez sticks but price may end up on the light side.

Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 9-2 or better.
EX: 4,5 / 2,4,5,8
TRI: 4,5 / 2,4,5,8 / 2,4,5,7,8

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:

AQU Race 8 The Alex M. Robb (3:50 ET)
#4 Send It in 6-5
#6 Empire Dreams 8-1
#2 Wake Up in Malibu 8-5
#7 Good Luck Gus 10-1

Analysis: Send It In is going to be the legit short priced favorite in here for the Pletcher barn. The gelding came back off a nine-month layoff with a game effort in a neck loss against $100,000 optional claimers here. He was unable to catch the loose on the lead gate to wire winner Doyoknowsomthng, who was taking full advantage of a racing strip that was kind to inside speed. Our top pick made his debut back in the spring of ’15 for $40,000 but now comes in here with a pair of triple digit Beyer Speed Figures, beating Alw-2 optional claimers back in March with a career best 104. He owns a good edge in early and mid pace numbers but has shown he does need the lead. The Pletcher barn is 27% winners with runners making their second start off a +180 day layoff.

Empire Dreams won this race last year by a head as the favorite and then got a nine-month layoff. He is 0 for 3 this year, last out a fourth as the beaten favorite in a New York Stallion Series race at seven furlongs. He is better routing and his win last year was his lone trip over the inner track. Two back in the state bred Empire Classic he was third behind repeat winner royal Posse, who came back to win the Claiming Crown Jewel at Gulfstream Park in his next outing. He figures to move forward with the stretch out to two turns.

Wake Up in Malibu set the early fractions in the Empire Classic and faded to finish a well beaten eighth last out. Two back he took the field gate to wire over a speed biased surface to beat Alw-2 optional claimers, the third-place finisher in that race being Keen Ice. He is better than he showed last out and figures to bounce back with a much better effort, but the 8-5 morning line sure seems light.

Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 1-1 or better.
EX: 4,6 / 2,4,6,7
TRI: 4,6 / 2,4,6,7 / 2,3,4,6,7

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Gulfstream Park:

GP Race 7 The Tropical Park Derby (3:01 ET)
#3 Mighty Mo 15-1
#12 Strike Midnight 9-2
#9 Oscar Nominated 3-1
#8 Inspector Lynley 4-1

Analysis: Mighty Mo got the job done as our top pick last out beating Alw-1 foes over soft ground at the Big A last out in a sharp effort This guy showed some promise back in the spring graduating in his second career start and then getting beaten in the Woodhaven by a neck in his stakes debut. He makes his second start off a two-month break and looks as if he will move forward off his last outing for Mott. Nice value if this guy goes off near his 15-1 morning line.

Strike Midnight was bumped coming out of the gate, stalked the early pace and came with a good late rally to finish in the runner up spot last out in the Gio Ponti over good ground at the Big A. Two back over soft ground he came with a good late run to finish a good second in the English Channel. He just needs to work out a good trip from the outside and he fits well in this spot.

Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 8-1 or better.
EX: 3,12 / 3,8,9,12
TRI: 3,12 / 3,8,9,12 / 3,8,9,11,12

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Aqueduct
R1: #3 Two Term Max 12-1
R3: #2 Steamroller 8-1
R3: #7 Mineralogy 10-1
R4: #5 Bond Vigilante 10-1
R5: #5 H Man 15-1
R6: #7 Jemmabelle 8-1
R7: #8 Ro Bear 10-1
R8: #6 Empire Dreams 8-1
R8: #7 Good Luck Gus 10-1

Good luck today!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Meadowlands: Saturday 12/31 Analysis
By Jay Bergman

DRF

Best Bet: K LEES SHAKENBAKE (2nd)

Spot Play: CITY HALL (6th)


Race 1

(3) THISGUYSAROCKSTAR has been mired with unlucky draws of late. Veteran finally gets the relief he needs and falls into a blank group. (6) CITY PIE was decidedly overbet at 1/2 while falling short in this class. Russo-trained gelding can bounce back at better odds. (1) VERSADO has a ton of back class with $1.2 million in the bank but needs to find a bit more courage than he's mustered up in recent weeks.

Race 2

(4) K LEES SHAKENBAKE returns to the level that he dominated two starts back. Classy veteran is always at his best when not engaged early and should take these whenever called upon. (8) DOWNTHEHIGHWY hasn't been able to get untracked as yet since arriving for Burke. Indiana-bred takes another drop. (7) TITUS SEELSTER has qualified sharply for his return but may be in need of a start.

Race 3

(5) CHILLN MATISSE handled this level with relative ease three starts back. Art Major-sired gelding drops a notch on his return from Harrah's and figures to be aggressively handled. (10) PICKWICK had things his own way in his local debut and gave way without much of a fight. Soph lands outside again and is hard to accept at short odds. (8) NEXT OF CAM sports an interesting record but has obviously been facing weaker company.

Race 4

(4) CENTURY CHURCHILL moves into the Johnson stable off a sharp win at Woodbine. Nicely-bred gelding somehow managed to go winless in his first 30 career starts but has won twice in his last five races. (2) MAAJAACKKOBE returns to the big track and somewhat weaker competition and appears the horse to beat. (8) DASH OF DANGER was most impressive in his first local trip for Burke and company. Western Terror-sired gelding has an impressive pedigree and may in fact be able to handle the rise in class.

Race 5

(4) ALBERTO CONTADOR N is a hard-hitting import that held together well upon arriving last week and missed but a length to the hottest horse racing at The Big M. Cassar-trained gelding drops a notch and seems primed. (5) URBAN RENEWAL tries claimers to get into this class and may have something in store for these. Soph has been razor sharp. (9) CALVIN B is as good or better than these when on his game; only question is time off.

Race 6

(7) CITY HALL has climbed the class ladder here in impressive style winning from impossible spots at will. Riding a four-race winning streak this Amber Buter trainee has never been better and should get the job done again. (1) LIMELIGHT BEACH is the sharper of the two Burke entrants here. He showed pace at both ends of the mile at Yonkers racing against a solid group. (8) POLAK A is a gritty import that has been doing some of his best racing towards years end.

Race 7

(3) MARINER SEELSTER has been in raging form for Mark Ford and appears to have the spot necessary to be positioned well ahead of the known closers. (8) ELRAMA N has been vicious recently for Russo but finds a much more imposing group this week and draws outside. (10) ASHLEYS HUSBAND is another with impressive credentials that simply does not like to leave.

Race 8

(2) PREPARTY was just too far back to threaten in his first trip here. Harmon-trained gelding gets significant post relief and should be aggressively handled. (5) GAMBLERS TALE is Brett Miller's choice of two here and can certainly be excused for last with broken equipment. (9) QUALITY CLOSER looks for his 10th win of the season but needs to overcome the outside lane.

Race 9

(2) REAL NICE has shown good foot finishing in both local starts while lacking a realistic chance. One-time Levy final champion continues to battle at a high level. (3) BLATANTLY BEST couldn't get into the action coming without cover which has never been his game. Veteran can bounce back with a better trip. (5) HILLBILLY HANOVER has a ton of class and must be considered in this company.

Race 10

(2) LEGION OF BOOM had been quite sharp racing at Harrah's this fall. Fusco-trained 4-year-old qualified back in solid form and has a decided position advantage over most contenders here. (1) DURANT makes his first start for Foster following a claim and is in below the claiming tag; hard to gauge whether the drop is desperation or brilliance. (3) VICEROY HANOVER appears to be a solid one-run type that will need the pieces to fall into place perfectly.

Race 11

(6) TAURANGA has needed a few starts to get back in form and hinted at improvement upon dropping to this level. (4) WHATAORSE is likely to take some action off the solid win at this level last week. (5) MR BLISSFULL came up a little short from the outside in last; better spot here.

Race 12

(10) ALEXIE MATTOSIE has been knocking on the door recently without getting the job done. Ageless wonder was outkicked by a runaway train in last but doesn't find anyone here with that ability. (6) ALWAYS A DIAMOND steps up a couple of notches off a solid win and appears set for minor spoils. (8) NORTHERN ASSASSIN A may need to leave the gate from this spot.

Race 13

(7) CMON MR BROCK ships south with Saratoga idle and appears to be razor sharp for Spagnola. (2) STIMULUS PLAN has been on quite a form spree and again moves up off the second straight claim. (4) TO BEACH HIS OWN is a stout closing threat.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Spot Plays

For Saturday

TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE

Aqueduct (6th) Ring Knocker, 4-1
(9th) Southern Union, 3-1


Delta Downs (3rd) G’s Big Red, 3-1
(9th) Soft and Sweet, 4-1


Fair Grounds (2nd) Doxology, 6-1
(7th) Sashimi Blaster, 4-1


Golden Gate Fields (4th) Arendal, 9-2
(5th) Whenbetterthannow, 9-2


Gulfstream Park (2nd) Convict Pike, 7-2
(3rd) Sal’s Jet, 7-2


Hawthorne (2nd) Burning Approval, 3-1
(6th) Georgie My Boy, 7-2


Laurel Park (2nd) Segovia, 3-1
(5th) Just Jack, 5-1


Parx (2nd) Ruby Bleu, 3-1
(7th) Awesome Devine, 4-1


Santa Anita (4th) Ryans Charm, 4-1
(5th) Amazing Lady, 4-1


Tampa Bay Downs (5th) Youngest Daughter, 4-1
(6th) El Grande Rojo, 4-1


Turf Paradise (6th) Not That I Recall, 9-2
(8th) Golden Bayers, 7-2


Turfway Park (5th) Explosive Verruga, 8-1
(7th) Art’s Silver, 7-2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Saturday’s 6-pack

— Florida State 33, Michigan 32— A great, great college football game. Dalvin Cook should’ve been in NYC for the Heisman thing; he is a warrior.

— Air Force 45, South Alabama 21— Jaguars led this game 21-3 in 2nd quarter.

— Tennessee 38, Nebraska 24— Senior QB Hobbs goes out in a big way.

— Stanford 25, North Carolina 23— Tar Heels scored late, missed 2-point try to tie.

— Georgia 31, TCU 23— Horned Frogs have only 8 scholarship seniors.

— Iowa State 63, Texas Tech 56— Cyclones trailed by 14 in second half.