Dave Cokin
Bonus Play Saturday
839 MERCER at 840 GEORGE MASON 4:00 PM
Take: MERCER +3
First, a little on the scheduling dynamics. There’s no way to be sure a team is ever going to come out a little flat, as it’s really just a judgement call. But there is some of that opinion involved here, which I’ll explain later.
I like looking for value dogs based on some key numbers that I weigh fairly heavily when doing matchup analysis. Those numbers favor Mercer here.
I also like it when I can grab points with a team I’m confident will be able to play the game at the pace they prefer. Mercer cannot play fast and when things speed up, the Bears get in trouble. That should not be an issue. Virtually everyone plays faster than Mercer, but George Mason generally likes to work the clock and show patience while looking for a good shot. They pretty much have to, as the Patriots are shooting at horrible from the outside.
There’s a revenge motive for George Mason as they lost the season opener last year at Mercer and blew a pretty big second half lead in the process. But the Patriots are also off what I would call a major upset earlier this week as they went on the road and stunned Northern Iowa. I won’t call it a system play, but fading favorites off double digit dog upsets isn’t the worst strategy of all time.
George Mason has won four straight, so maybe I’m underrating them to some extent. But the available data indicates they’re still nothing more than a run of the mill entry and I actually still have the Bears rated higher than George Mason. I think there’s enough here to justify taking the points with Mercer.
Bonus Play Saturday
839 MERCER at 840 GEORGE MASON 4:00 PM
Take: MERCER +3
First, a little on the scheduling dynamics. There’s no way to be sure a team is ever going to come out a little flat, as it’s really just a judgement call. But there is some of that opinion involved here, which I’ll explain later.
I like looking for value dogs based on some key numbers that I weigh fairly heavily when doing matchup analysis. Those numbers favor Mercer here.
I also like it when I can grab points with a team I’m confident will be able to play the game at the pace they prefer. Mercer cannot play fast and when things speed up, the Bears get in trouble. That should not be an issue. Virtually everyone plays faster than Mercer, but George Mason generally likes to work the clock and show patience while looking for a good shot. They pretty much have to, as the Patriots are shooting at horrible from the outside.
There’s a revenge motive for George Mason as they lost the season opener last year at Mercer and blew a pretty big second half lead in the process. But the Patriots are also off what I would call a major upset earlier this week as they went on the road and stunned Northern Iowa. I won’t call it a system play, but fading favorites off double digit dog upsets isn’t the worst strategy of all time.
George Mason has won four straight, so maybe I’m underrating them to some extent. But the available data indicates they’re still nothing more than a run of the mill entry and I actually still have the Bears rated higher than George Mason. I think there’s enough here to justify taking the points with Mercer.
Jim Feist
Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Saturday, December 3, 2016
Your free pick for Saturday, December 3, 2016 comes in college football as Florida and Alabama battle for the SEC title. These are two of the best defenses in college football and the championship is on the line. Alabama has won 24 consecutive games with a dominant defensive line. Senior defensive end Jonathan Allen (seven sacks, two fumble return touchdowns) is the only defensive player among the five Walter Camp Player of the Year finalists and he is leader of a defense that ranks first nationally in scoring defense (11.4 points per game), total defense (246.8 yards per game) and rushing defense (68.7), on a 4-1 run under the total. The Under is 15-6 in the Crimson Tide's last 21 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. The Florida Gators rank fifth in scoring defense (14.6) and sixth in total defense (291.9) on a 5-0 run under the total. And the Under is 10-1 in Gators last 11 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Play Florida/Alabama UNDER the total.
Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Saturday, December 3, 2016
Your free pick for Saturday, December 3, 2016 comes in college football as Florida and Alabama battle for the SEC title. These are two of the best defenses in college football and the championship is on the line. Alabama has won 24 consecutive games with a dominant defensive line. Senior defensive end Jonathan Allen (seven sacks, two fumble return touchdowns) is the only defensive player among the five Walter Camp Player of the Year finalists and he is leader of a defense that ranks first nationally in scoring defense (11.4 points per game), total defense (246.8 yards per game) and rushing defense (68.7), on a 4-1 run under the total. The Under is 15-6 in the Crimson Tide's last 21 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. The Florida Gators rank fifth in scoring defense (14.6) and sixth in total defense (291.9) on a 5-0 run under the total. And the Under is 10-1 in Gators last 11 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Play Florida/Alabama UNDER the total.
Jack Jones
Florida vs Alabama
Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Florida +24
I want to start by saying I have not once bet on Florida this season, I’ve only bet against them. I did so successfully last week with Florida State, plus won against them with Arkansas, Tennessee and North Texas earlier this season. I have been as big of a Florida hater as anyone this season, not once backing them.
However, it’s to the point now where there finally looks to be value in backing the Gators. After that 18-point loss to Florida State last week, the betting public wants nothing to do with them. But they weren’t focused for that game after beating LSU the previous week to win the SEC East, and they were resting some players with injuries that will likely return against Alabama.
Conversely, the betting public loves Alabama. The Crimson Tide had have covered the majority of their spreads this season en route to their 12-0 straight up record. They covered five straight before failing to cover the past two games against UT-Chattanooga and Auburn. They did cover the 17-point opener against Auburn, but not the 20.5-point closing line as the public pounded them leading up to that game.
And it’s clear that the public is pounding the Crimson Tide again here as this line opened at -21.5 and has already been bet up to -24. There’s no question Alabama wants to win the SEC, but it knows that it can afford to lose this game and still make the four-team playoff. While I don’t expect them to lose, I do think the Crimson Tide will be just content with winning and not blowing the doors off the Gators, which is what it’s going to take to cover this 24-point spread.
The one thing about Florida is that it just has a knack for playing in close games. It can’t blow out bad teams because it doesn’t possess that type of offense, but it doesn’t get blown out by good teams either because it has one of the best defenses in the country that keeps it in games. It’s asking a lot for any team, even one as good as Alabama, to beat Florida by more than three touchdowns.
The Gators are giving up just 14.6 points per game, 292 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play this season. They are holding opponents to 13.3 points, 115 yards per game and 1.3 yards per play less than their season averages. Florida possesses perhaps the best cornerback duo in the country in Jalen Tabor and Quincy Wilson, which will help limit the big plays from the stud receivers for Alabama in ArDarius Stewart and Calvin Ridley.
We saw last year in the SEC Championship an overmatched Florida team that managed to cover the spread. The Gators were only getting 16.5 points in that contest, and lost 15-29. They were dominated statistically, getting outgained 437 to 180 by the Crimson Tide, but it just goes to show you that stats don’t always matter with this team. The Gators have a grit about them that cannot be taught, and they will fight you for four quarters. That was evident in their 16-10 win at LSU as 13.5-point dogs two weeks ago.
The Gators are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Florida is 6-1 ATS in its last seven neutral site games. The Gators are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS loss. Bet Florida Saturday.
Florida vs Alabama
Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Florida +24
I want to start by saying I have not once bet on Florida this season, I’ve only bet against them. I did so successfully last week with Florida State, plus won against them with Arkansas, Tennessee and North Texas earlier this season. I have been as big of a Florida hater as anyone this season, not once backing them.
However, it’s to the point now where there finally looks to be value in backing the Gators. After that 18-point loss to Florida State last week, the betting public wants nothing to do with them. But they weren’t focused for that game after beating LSU the previous week to win the SEC East, and they were resting some players with injuries that will likely return against Alabama.
Conversely, the betting public loves Alabama. The Crimson Tide had have covered the majority of their spreads this season en route to their 12-0 straight up record. They covered five straight before failing to cover the past two games against UT-Chattanooga and Auburn. They did cover the 17-point opener against Auburn, but not the 20.5-point closing line as the public pounded them leading up to that game.
And it’s clear that the public is pounding the Crimson Tide again here as this line opened at -21.5 and has already been bet up to -24. There’s no question Alabama wants to win the SEC, but it knows that it can afford to lose this game and still make the four-team playoff. While I don’t expect them to lose, I do think the Crimson Tide will be just content with winning and not blowing the doors off the Gators, which is what it’s going to take to cover this 24-point spread.
The one thing about Florida is that it just has a knack for playing in close games. It can’t blow out bad teams because it doesn’t possess that type of offense, but it doesn’t get blown out by good teams either because it has one of the best defenses in the country that keeps it in games. It’s asking a lot for any team, even one as good as Alabama, to beat Florida by more than three touchdowns.
The Gators are giving up just 14.6 points per game, 292 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play this season. They are holding opponents to 13.3 points, 115 yards per game and 1.3 yards per play less than their season averages. Florida possesses perhaps the best cornerback duo in the country in Jalen Tabor and Quincy Wilson, which will help limit the big plays from the stud receivers for Alabama in ArDarius Stewart and Calvin Ridley.
We saw last year in the SEC Championship an overmatched Florida team that managed to cover the spread. The Gators were only getting 16.5 points in that contest, and lost 15-29. They were dominated statistically, getting outgained 437 to 180 by the Crimson Tide, but it just goes to show you that stats don’t always matter with this team. The Gators have a grit about them that cannot be taught, and they will fight you for four quarters. That was evident in their 16-10 win at LSU as 13.5-point dogs two weeks ago.
The Gators are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Florida is 6-1 ATS in its last seven neutral site games. The Gators are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS loss. Bet Florida Saturday.
