Saturday 12/3/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Baylor Bears (6-5) at West Virginia Mountaineers (9-2)

Date: December 03, 2016 3:30 PM EDT

West Virginia and Baylor both saw their Big 12 title hopes squashed by mid-November, but both still have plenty to play for in their regular season finale on Saturday afternoon in Morgantown, W. Va..

Baylor (6-5, 3-5 Big 12), which has dropped five in a row since beginning the season with a 6-0 start that included an impressive 35-24 victory over Oklahoma State, could finish with a winning record for the seventh straight season by beating 14th-ranked Mountaineers. That's something that has never been done before in school history.

West Virginia (9-2, 6-2) can win 10 games for just the ninth time in school history. And if the Mountaineers can also pick up a victory in a bowl game, Dana Holgorsen's squad would match the school record with an 11-win season. Not bad for a team picked to finish seventh in the Big 12's preseason media poll.

If that isn't enough to get West Virginia fired up, there's this: 62-38. That's the score of the Mountaineers' loss to Baylor last year in Waco, Texas.

"We all know what this one means," defensive coordinator Tony Gibson told The Dominion Post. "We know what Baylor brings. We've had Dec. 3, 2016, marked down for a long time.

"Our kids will have a great week, and they'll be jacked up and hopefully our fans will come out and support those seniors who have done something we've never done -- six wins in the Big 12. We have a lot to be proud of in this team."

Baylor comes in off an embarrassing 54-35 loss to a Texas Tech team that finished the season 5-7. Despite a nightmarish year that featured the firing of head coach Art Briles and a sexual assault scandal -- 17 women reported 19 sexual or physical assaults involving football players since 2011, including four gang rapes -- the school announced it still planned to play in a bowl game.

"Our intent, at this time, is to accept a bowl bid for our student-athletes who have worked so hard to earn it over the course of this season," Baylor athletic director Mack Rhoades said in a statement provided to ESPN. "Our focus, as it has been throughout the season, is on our student-athletes and trying to finish strong against a great West Virginia team this weekend in Morgantown."

"I'm very, very proud of our players who have remained loyal to Baylor. They've given me 100-plus reasons for hope in these difficult times," interim head coach Jim Grobe said.

The 64-year-old Grobe announced on Monday that he will not return to coach after this season. SMU's Chad Morris is considered the frontrunner to take over.

"Honestly, football needs a fresh start," Grobe said. "All the other sports here are in great shape right now, and I would expect the next coach to have football competing for championships in a hurry. Whoever gets this job is going to be very fortunate."

Freshman quarterback Zach Smith, taking over for injured starter Seth Russell (ankle surgery), passed for 377 yards and three TDs against Texas Tech. Grobe said he improved significantly from his first start a week earlier against Kansas State. Smith will have to improve further for Baylor to win at West Virginia.

Bears wide receiver KD Cannon has been a standout on an otherwise lackluster Baylor offense this season. He caught 12 passes for 132 yards and two TDs against Texas Tech. With one game left in the season, he needs 95 yards to reach 1,000 for the season.

Sophomore Terence Williams took over the role as Baylor's go-to running back this season. He leads the team in rushing by 133 yards over senior Shock Linwood. Williams needs 155 yards to reach 1,000 for the season.

West Virginia comes in off an impressive 49-19 victory at Iowa State. With his top three tailbacks all out due to injury, Holgorsen decided to take the redshirt off true freshman Martell Pettaway in the 11th game of the season. Pettaway responded by rushing 30 times for 180 yards and a touchdown.

"We had no choice," Holgorsen said. "If he was a selfish guy, he wouldn't have been on board with that. ... He took advantage of his opportunity."

With Pettaway starring, quarterback Skyler Howard threw only 21 passes, completing 12 for an outrageous 330 yards. That's an average of 27.5 yards per completion, and five of those went for TDs. Baylor is second in the conference in pass defense at 234.2 yards per game, but it was destroyed by Texas Tech's Patrick Mahomes last week and could get shelled again by Howard on Saturday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Florida Gators (8-3) at Alabama Crimson Tide (12-0)

Date: December 03, 2016 4:00 PM EDT

Speculation has it that even if Alabama does not beat Florida to win the SEC Championship, the Crimson Tide could still earn a spot in the third annual College Football Playoff.

But don't suggest that to Tide coach Nick Saban.

"That's certainly not the mindset that we want," Saban said. "This is a big game for us. It's an opportunity to win the SEC championship, which to me is a very, very significant accomplishment. We hold that in very high esteem, having the opportunity to do that, having the ability to do it, having the ability to play for it."

The Tide (12-0, 8-0 SEC) and Gators (8-3, 6-2 SEC) will clash at 4 p.m. ET Saturday in the Georgia Dome in Atlanta, with CBS cameras catching the action.

Alabama's players are locked into Saban's way of thinking.

"You don't ever want to lose really," Tide tight end O.J. Howard said. "You don't want to have to let the season come down to the committee choosing what your stakes are. We just have to take care of business on the field ourselves and we can control our destiny."

Alabama, No. 1 in this week's College Football Playoff rankings, has a chance to become the first team to win three straight SEC championships since Florida won four from 1993 to 1996. Alabama made the College Football Playoff both years with a loss, and the Tide lost a game in three of their four national championship seasons as well.

"You all want to put everything on the playoffs, man. That's all you care about," Saban said. "You don't care about bowl games, you don't care about any teams in the country that aren't in the playoffs. I don't know. If we don't win this game, maybe we throw a stink bomb out there, maybe we don't get in the playoffs. I don't know. You guys have all the answers to that, but I don't.

"All I know is that if we play and we play well, we control our destiny in terms of what we do. So I'd really rather not have any more questions about 'Is it OK to lose this game?' It's never OK to lose a game."

With an offense that is producing nearly 40 points and 480 yards a game led by freshman quarterback Jalen Hurts (20 touchdown passes, 12 rushing touchdowns, 2,454 yards passing, 840 rushing) and running back Damien Harris (897 yards rushing), the Tide is expected to roll over a Florida defensive unit that is could have seven starters out with injuries.

End Jordan Sherit, injured in last week's loss to Florida State, is the latest addition to a list that features end Bryan Cox Jr., linebackers Jarrad Davis and Alex Anzalone and safeties Nick Washington and Marcus Maye. They could be joined by linebacker Daniel McMillian and safety Duke Washington, who are day-to-day.

The problems are multiplied with the difficulties the Gators have moving the ball with an offense that ranks 13th out of 14 teams in the SEC and averages 352.7 yards a game rushing and passing.

Backup quarterback Austin Appleby likely will start with injured starter Luke Del Rio available on a limited basis against an Alabama defense that has held opponents to national lows of 68.7 yards a game rushing and 246.8 yards a game in total offense.

But Gators coach Jim McElwain isn't conceding anything.

"I don't look at it as mismatch," he said. "I look at it as a great opportunity. That's part of the chess match."

Still, the Gators have scored just 29 points over their last two games and failed to score an offensive touchdown last week in a 31-13 loss to Florida State.

"We've got to get the ball in our playmaker's hands in space and allow them to be able to make plays," McElwain said.

The game is a rematch of last season's SEC title game, which Alabama won 29-15. This will be the ninth time they have played for the championship since the league split into two divisions in 1992. They have split the previous eight meetings 4-4.

"It means a lot to be able to be in this ballgame," McElwain said. "This is one of those weekends where a lot of teams aren't playing. It's an honor to be representing the East."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Virginia Tech Hokies (9-3) at Clemson Tigers (11-1)

Date: December 03, 2016 8:00 PM EDT

Which teams are going to show up for the ACC Championship Game?

Will it be the Clemson team that romped past South Carolina 56-7, Syracuse 54-0 and Boston College 56-10 and won 37-34 at Florida State? Or will it be the one that lost to Pittsburgh 43-42 and would have lost to North Carolina State had the Wolfpack not missed a chip-shot field goal as time ran out in regulation?

Will it be the Virginia Tech club that waxed division rivals North Carolina 34-3 and Miami 37-16, or the one that lost to Syracuse 31-17 and Georgia Tech 30-20, the latter with the Coastal title on the line?

The answers will be forthcoming when the Tigers (11-1, 7-1 ACC) and Hokies (9-3, 6-2 ACC) kick off at 8 p.m. ET Saturday in the ACC championship game at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Fla. ABC will do the telecast.

For third-ranked Clemson, the stakes are huge, because a victory is likely to mean a berth in the four-team College Football Playoff.

That Clemson is playing for a second consecutive ACC title and 16th championship in program history is no surprise. Yes, the Tigers had to rebuild a defense that lost eight starters from the 2015 club and had a key date in Tallahassee with Florida State.

But they also returned eight starters to an offense that ranked No. 16 in the country in scoring last year and No. 11 in total offense and had a Heisman candidate in quarterback Deshaun Watson to run the show.

Virginia Tech, however, was coping with all the trials that go with a coaching change. Justin Fuente came from Memphis to take over for legendary Frank Beamer and installed a more up-tempo approach on an offense while looking for a new starter at quarterback.

An early 45-24 loss to Tennessee seemed to confirm the media's pick of a fourth-place finish for the Hokies in the Coastal Division, behind defending champion North Carolina, Miami, and Pittsburgh.

But the Hokies beat each one of those teams to earn their sixth appearance in the ACC title game, which is being played for the 12th time.

"The kids wanted to win and were willing to do whatever we asked them to, under no guise of a guarantee," Fuente said. "Kind of the way I put it to them is, if we do all these things then we at least have a chance.

"If we don't do these things, then we have no chance, and the kids have bought into that and have done a good job."

Junior college transfer Jerod Evans has been a big key. He beat out last year's backup, Brenden Motley, at quarterback and ended up setting Tech's single-season record for touchdown passes (26) and total offense (3,752).

He passed for 3,039 yards, the second most in a single season at Tech behind Don Strock's 3,243 yards in 1972, and also owns the school's single-season record for touchdowns accounted for (34).

Such numbers actually rival those Watson put up for the Tigers. The junior, who announced his intention to enter next spring's NFL draft, has passed for 34 touchdowns and 3,626 yards and is on a roll of late. Over the last three games, he completed 74 percent of his passes for 1,129 yards and 10 touchdowns.

"I've never been around a guy like this guy," Clemson coach Dabo Swinney said. "The moment's never too big for him."

Both quarterbacks have a plethora of receivers to throw to.

For Tech, Isaiah Ford has 69 receptions for 949 yards, Cam Phillips 58 for 776 and Bucky Hodges 42 for 598. Mike Williams has 79 catches for 1,114 yards for Clemson, Artavis Scott 64 for 544, and Ray-Ray McCloud 44 for 434, and tight end Jordan Leggett 34 for 588.

There is also an interesting link between the two coaches.

Fuente, who was at TCU at the time, was one of two assistants Swinney interviewed several years ago for the offensive coordinator job that ultimately went to Chad Morris.

Swinney and Fuente have remained in contact since.

"I knew when they hired him it wouldn't take long for him to get them back to this point," Swinney said. "I'm certainly happy for Justin and the job he's done in his first year.

"He's a great guy and a heck of a football coach. He's going to do a fantastic job at Virginia Tech."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Penn State iNittany Lions (10-2) at Wisconsin Badgers (10-2)

Date: December 03, 2016 8:00 PM EDT

INDIANAPOLIS -- The winner of the Big Ten Championship Game has an outside chance of slipping into the four-team College Football Playoff.

The loser knows that it has been formally -- if not officially -- eliminated.

It is a showdown between the third- and- fourth-best teams in the conference when No. 6 Wisconsin faces No. 8 Penn State in the Big Ten title game at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis on Saturday (8:17 p.m. ET, FOX).

The Badgers are ranked sixth in the latest CFP rankings and the Nittany Lions sit seventh. The winner will likely need both No. 3 Clemson and No. 4 Washington to lose its conference title games as No. 5 Michigan is positioned to be the first benefactor should the Tigers or Huskies stumble.

So the fate of the winner is hard to determine and some players aren't spending much time worrying about it.

"I've said before: We can't control what (the selection) committee does," senior cornerback Sojourn Shelton said on a conference call. "For that decision to be made, the only thing we can do is just try to focus on the week of the game and try to play our best football and just put ourselves in the best position to be talked about."

Both squads have certainly put themselves in position to be discussed as two of the hotter teams in the country.

The Badgers (10-2, 7-2) won six consecutive games to claim the Big Ten's West Division. Wisconsin averaged 42.7 points over its last three contests and the defensive-oriented squad leads the nation with 21 interceptions.

Penn State (10-2, 8-1) enters with eight straight wins and averaged 40.4 points during the stretch en route to the East Division crown. The Nittany Lions registered a shocking upset of Ohio State on Oct. 22 and rode the momentum to win a division that includes both the Buckeyes and Michigan.

With both teams streaking and so much at stake, it's hard to downplay the magnitude of the teams' first matchup since 2013.

"It's going to be a great challenge," Penn State coach James Franklin said at a press conference. "I know our guys are excited."

This is the Nittany Lions' first-ever appearance in the Big Ten title game and it wasn't expected to occur this season.

Not just because of the powerful Buckeyes and Wolverines, but due to where Penn State's program had dropped in the wake of the Jerry Sandusky child-molestation scandal.

The legacy of Joe Paterno was tainted and the football program received a bowl ban and scholarship reductions. Worse to the players was the stigma hung over them despite no wrongdoing on their parts.

But suddenly the joy is back in Happy Valley with the Nittany Lions reveling in their best season since 2009.

"Yeah, there's a huge buzz going around right now," fifth-year senior defensive end Evan Schwan said at a press conference. "Before I got here, I always heard that whenever Penn State is playing well, Happy Valley is that much happier.

"You see it walking around campus. People that I have never met in my life will say, 'Hey, great game,' that kind of thing. I'm very, very appreciative of them supporting us throughout this entire ride."

Schwan is tied with junior defensive end Garrett Sickels for the team lead with six sacks for a unit that held three of its last four opponents to 14 or fewer points.

The Nittany Lions will be attempting to slow standout Wisconsin senior running back Corey Clement, who paces the offense with 1,140 yards and 13 rushing touchdowns.

The Badgers are employing two quarterbacks in redshirt freshman Alex Hornibrook and senior Bart Houston. Hornibrook's output is 1,243 yards and eight touchdowns against seven interceptions, while Houston has 912 yards, five touchdowns and three interceptions.

Hornibook suffered a concussion during last Saturday's victory over Minnesota but was cleared to practice on Tuesday and is expected to play against Penn State.

Wisconsin's opportunistic defense ranks third nationally in scoring defense (13.7) and rushing defense (100.8 yards per game).

Among the standouts are senior free safety Leo Musso (team-best five interceptions), junior strong safety D'Cota Dixon (four picks), Shelton (four picks) and junior outside linebacker T.J. Watt (team-leading 9 1/2 sacks).

Penn State sophomore running back Saquon Barkley suffered a right foot injury in Saturday's win against Michigan State but Franklin declined to discuss his status during a press conference.

Barkley is the team's most explosive weapon and rushed for 1,219 yards and 15 touchdowns.

Quarterback Trace McSorley enjoyed a breakout campaign as a sophomore by passing for 2,976 yards and accounting for 27 touchdowns (21 passing, six rushing). The passing yardage is the fourth-best single-season output in Penn State history.

Wisconsin has more experience on this stage as it is making its fourth Big Ten title game appearance in six seasons. And coach Paul Chryst sees the goal this time around -- winning and slipping into the national playoff.

"You always want to be the best you can be," Chryst said on a conference call, "and certainly, in college football, that's the pinnacle."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'SEC Championship Game'

The eyes of most college football fans as well as those with a penchant for sports games will be on the SEC Championship between defending national champion Alabama Crimson Tide (12-0, 8-4 ATS) and Florida Gators (8-3, 4-6-1 ATS). Crimson Tide ridding a 24-game win streak 15-9 record against the betting line.

Defense the moniker for Crimson Tide allowing a lowly 11.4 points/game on 247.2 total yards along with a seemingly unstoppable offense racking up 39.4 points/game lead by QB Jalen Hurts tossing 2425 passing yards, 18 TD while gridding out 803 rushing yards, 11 TD are facing another bulky line.

A tad generous, Florida's offense (24.1) isn't going to score many points in this one, but the Gator top-flight defense allowing 14.6 points/game on 291.9 total yards should keep 'Bama' from running away with this one. Do note, 'Bama' is just 5-13 against the betting line when favoured by more than 15 points including a non-cover as 16.5 point chalk in last years SEC Title game vs Florida.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF

Saturday’s games

Baylor lost its last five games (0-5 vs spread) after a 6-0 start; their QB is gone, they’ve allowed 548+ TY in four of last five games, giving up 47.6 pts/game during their skid. Home team won last four Baylor-West Virginia games, with an average total of 104.3 (yes, 104.3). Bears lost last two visits here 41-27/70-63. Mountaineers are 3-2 in last five games after a 6-0 start; they’re 2-2 as home favorites this year, with home wins by 15-1-24-27 points and a loss to Oklahoma. Big X home favorites are 10-13 vs spread. Over is 3-1 in last four games for both teams.

TCU beat Kansas State 41-20/52-45 last two years, gaining 553/543 TY. Favorites are 2-2 vs spread in last four series games; teams split last two played here. Horned Frogs are 1-5 vs spread as a favorite this year, 0-4 at home; they became bowl eligible LW with 31-9 rout of rival Texas. K-State is 3-1 as an underdog this year, with road losses (2-3 SU) by 13-1-21 points. Underdogs are 7-2 vs spread in their games this year. Big X home favorites are 10-13 vs spread. Last four K-State games went over; under is 5-1 in TCU’s last six games.

New Mexico State lost five of last six games but is 3-2 vs spread in last five; they’re 2-4 as a road underdog this year, losing away games by 16-20-46-32-42-19 points. South Alabama needs a win to become bowl eligible; they’re 0-2 vs spread as a favorite this year, 2-2 SU at home vs I-A teams, with odd home upset of San Diego State. Under is 4-0-1 in last five New Mexico State games, 5-3-1 in South Alabama games this year. Sun Belt home favorites are 9-12 against the spread this year.

Georgia Southern beat Troy 42-10/45-10 last two years, running ball for 746 yards in the two games, but Eagles are having rough year (4-7) this year while Trojans are 9-2, 2-1 vs spread as a road favorite, 1-2 in games with a single digit spread. GSU lost its last four games, allowing an average of 33.5 pts/game- they’re 1-8 vs spread in last nine games, 1-3 as an underdog this season. Under is 5-2-1 in Troy’s last eight games; Georgia Southern’s last three games all went over. Sun Belt home underdogs are 7-8 vs spread this year.

UL-Lafayette won seven of last eight games with UL-Monroe, in series where underdog is 6-0-1 vs spread in last seven meetings. Ragin’ Cajuns won last five visits here, with four of five wins by 7+ points. ULL needs win to be bowl eligible; they’re 2-3 on road with two OT losses, with wins by 24-7 points (1-1 as a road favorite). ULM is 4-7 but covered its last three games; they’re 4-4 as an underdog this year, 1-0 at home. Over is 4-1 in ULL road games, 8-0 in last eight ULM games. Sun Belt home underdogs are 7-8 vs spread this year.

Oklahoma is 11-2 in its last 13 games with Oklahoma State; underdogs covered three of last four meetings in the Bedlam Rivalry. State won 38-35 in last visit here in ’14, snapping a 5-game skid in Norman. Sooners ran ball for 304-344 yards in last two series games. Cowboys won seven in row after a 2-2 start; they’re 3-1 on road, 2-1 as a road dog, with only loss 35-24 at Baylor. Oklahoma won its last eight games after a 1-2 start; they’re 3-2 as a home favorite this year. Over is 5-2 in last seven OSU games, 1-3 in Sooners’ last four games. Big X home favorites are 10-13 vs spread this season.

Arkansas State covered six of last seven games but had 5-game win streak snapped at ULL last week; ASU is 2-3 on road (1-1 as road favorite), with wins by 15-32 points- they’re on road for 4th time in last five weeks. Texas State lost its last seven games, was outscored 199-44 in its last five. Home side won last three Arkansas State-Texas State games; Red Wolves lost 45-27 (-6) in last visit here two years ago. Under is 7-1-1 in last nine ASU games, 5-0 in last five TSU games. Sun Belt home favorites are 9-12 vs spread.

Georgia State is 3-8, but 3-4 in last seven games; they’re 6-2 vs spread in last eight games, 4-1 as a road underdog this year, with road losses by 34-6-14-10-3 points. Idaho covered its last six games; they’re 7-4 and headed to a bowl, scoring 36 pts/game while winning last three games behind QB Linehan (son of Cowboys’ OC). Vandals are 2-0 as a home favorite this year. Under is 6-3 in last nine Georgia State games (0-2 in last two games), 2-4 in last six Idaho games. Sun Belt home favorites are 9-12 vs spread.

Louisiana Tech (+2) upset Western Kentucky 55-52 at home October 6, throwing ball for 454 yards; Tech lost 41-38 here LY. Louisiana Tech/Western Kentucky are #1/#2 in country in yards/play; there are rumors that WKU coach Brohm is taking Purdue job, not sure if that factors in here. Bulldogs are 3-1 vs spread as an underdog this year; they had won 7 in a row before losing as a 14-point road favorite at So Miss LW. WKU won its last six games, scoring 51.5 pts/game- they’re 3-2 as a home favorite. Over is 8-2 in Tech’s last ten games, 5-2 in Hilltoppers’ last seven. C-USA home favorites are 15-14 vs spread this season.

Temple covered its last ten games, is 4-0 vs spread as an underdog. Navy won/covered its last four games, scoring 66-75 points in last two games while running ball for 480-496 vs disinterested defenses. Middies lost when a) Air Force stopped their option and b) when USF used superior speed to run for 412 yards. Temple won its last six games and hasn’t allowed more than 165 YR in any of its last eight games. Middies have Army rivalry game next week. Last four Temple games stayed under; six of last seven Navy games went over. AAC home favorites are 12-12 vs spread.


SEC title game, Atlanta
Favorites are 7-2-1 vs spread in last ten SEC title games. Florida split its last four games, losing 31-10 at Arkansas, 31-13 in their rivalry game at Florida State LW; Gators are traveling for 4th time in last five weeks- they’re 1-2 as an underdog this year. Alabama covered its last six games- they’re 8-2-1 vs spread this year, winning last three I-A games by a combined score of 91-15. Crimson Tide whacked Florida 29-15 in this game LY, outgunning Gators 437-180. Under is 5-0 in last five Florida games, 3-1 in last four Alabama games. SEC favorites are 26-25 vs spread this season.


Mountain West title game, Laramie, WY
San Diego State scored TD on last play of game here two weeks ago, but went for two points and win- they failed, losing 34-33; Cowboys are 4-3 in last seven series, 4-2 in last six meetings played here, where temps are expected to be in teens Saturday, not good for San Diego kids. San Diego State won this game LY; this is Wyoming’s first appearance in Mountain West title game. Both teams got crushed as favorites LW, Aztecs losing 63-31 at home to Colorado State, Wyoming losing 56-35 at New Mexico. Last five Aztec games, seven of last eight Wyoming games went over total.


ACC title game, Orlando
Clemson needs win to get spot in 4-team national playoff; Tigers scored 91 points in winning last two games since 44-42 home loss to Pittsburgh. Clemson is 2-4 vs spread in its last six games, 4-4 when laying a double digit spread this year- they won this game 45-37 over UNC last year. Virginia Tech is 9-3 but lost to Syracuse, Ga Tech; Hokies scored 86 points in winning last two games; they’re 1-1 as an underdog this year, 3-2 vs bowl teams this year. Underdogs are 5-4 vs spread in last nine ACC title games. Over is 3-2 in Tech’s last five games, 5-2-1 in Clemson’s last eight.


Big 10 title game, Indianapolis
Penn State won/covered its last eight games since a 49-10 loss at Michigan Sept 24; Nittany Lions are 2-1 as an underdog this year- they’re 5-2 vs bowl teams. Wisconsin won its last six games, is 9-2-1 vs spread this season, 3-1 in games with single digit spread (PSU is 5-1 in games with single digit spread). Badgers are also 5-2 vs bowl teams. These teams haven’t met since 2013. Penn State is playing in this game for first time, Wisconsin for 4th time in last six years (2-1 in first three appearances). Over is 4-1 in Penn State’s last five games, 3-0 in Wisconsin’s last three.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

At the Gate - Saturday
By Mike Dempsey

It is opening day at Gulfstream Park on Saturday, the 11-race card featuring nine stakes that make up the 18th edition of the Claiming Crown. The nine stakes offer over $1 million in purses for horses that have started for a claiming tag.

The feature at Aqueduct is the $250,000 Go for Wand Handicap (G3) and there are a pair of graded stakes at Del Mar—the $200,000 Bayakoa Handicap (G2) and the $300,000 Hollywood Derby (G1).

Who said the year ends with the Breeders’ Cup?

The Claiming Crown card is fantastic with fields of 11,11,14,14,14,13,14,9 and 14. It took me most of Thursday evening and half the day Friday to complete the report.

There is a ton of excitement surrounding the Gulfstream Park meeting, with the $12 million Pegasus World Cup Invitational less than two months away, and of course we will see plenty of Kentucky Derby hopefuls over the next four months.

The focus of opening day is the bread and butter horses that generally run for small purses that have an opportunity to run for some serious cash in the Claiming Crown.

Trainer Mike Maker is the all-time leading trainer in Claiming Crown wins and he takes another big run this year with contenders in six of the nine races.

The Gerald Bennet barn has been hot and he has rumens in three races, while Jorge Navarro has runners in five races.

I will be handicapping Gulfstream Park full time through April 1, which is Florida Derby Day. I will be doing a report for Aqueduct each Saturday during the winter.

My Best Plays Report for Saturday includes my 12 strongest plays from Aqueduct, Del Mar and Gulfstream Park.


Here is the opening race from Gulfstream Park to get the day off to a good start:

GP Race 1 Md Sp Wt (12:00 ET)
#10 Gentle Kitten 5-1
#1 Aquemini 3-1
#8 Psalmody 4-1
#12 Saratoga Citizen 20-1

Analysis: Gentle Kitten stalked the early pace, came with a six-wide bid and did not have enough punch left late in a third place finish last out at Churchill Downs, beaten four lengths for the top spot. Two back at Keeneland the filly came with a good late run to finish in the runner up spot. Looks like she has been facing a bit tougher than she meets here. She is out of the stakes winner Menifeeque ($164,938) who has dropped three winners and two have won on turf, top earner stakes winner Thank You Marylou ($444,292).

Aquemini came with a good late rally to finish in the runner up spot last out at Gulfstream Park West at this distance against Florida breds. The filly ran second in her first two outings here against open maidens. She adds blinkers here for the Nicks barn. She is out of a Street Cry mare that has dropped one other foal to race, Ian Smith ($82,997) his one win coming on turf.

Wagering
WIN: #10 to win at 4-1 or better.
EX: 1,10 / 1,8,10,12
TRI: 1,10 / 1,8,10,12 / 1,2,8,10,12

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:

AQU Race 8 The Go for Wand Hcp G3 (3:43 ET)
#4 Wonder Gal 9-5
#3 Bar of Gold 8-5
#5 Highway Star 8-1
#7 High Ridge Road 6-1

Analysis: Wonder Gal faded to finish 10th last out in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1) and drops into an easier spot here. Three back this gal was a sharp winner against state bred Alw-2 optional claimers where she trounced the field by 11 1/2 lengths earning a career top speed fig. Her last trip at a one turn mile was last June where she was a good third in the Acorn (G1), beaten a length by Curalina. She figures to bounce back with a better effort here with the class relief.

Bar of Gold trounced the field in the state bred Empire Distaff 'Cap where she won by 10 lengths in the slop., She is now perfect in five trips on wet tracks and 0 for 9 on fast dirt surfaces. Her Beyer of 109 last out was 17 pints higher than her previous high. She won't catch a wet track and figures to regress off her last but still fits in this spot.

Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 9-5 or better.
EX: 3,4 / 3,4,5,7
TRI: 3,4 / 3,4,5,7 / 3,4,5,6,7

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Gulfstream Park:

GP Race 10 The Claiming Crown Jewel (4:34 ET)
#3 Royal Posse 7-5
#1 Bigger Picture 4-1
#7 John Jones 9-2
#4 Mr. Kisses 10-1

Analysis: Royal Posse is back to defend his title here for the RRod barn. The trainer took this guy for just $20,000 in May of 2015 and he has landed in the exacta in 13 straight starts for the barn. He won this race last year in the slop after a second in the state bred Empire Classic. This year he comes in here riding a three race winning streak, winning the Empire Classic this year in a near career top effort. He is 8 for 11 at nine furlongs and looks very tough in this spot.

Bigger Picture is coming off a win in the Red Smith Handicap (G3) on turf at 1 3/8 miles. The Mike Maker trainee has only raced on conventional dirt twice in his career, the last a third versus $25,000 claimers at seven furlongs at the Spa in August of '14. Maker claimed this guy for $32,00 last November and he has won 4 of 7 for the barn and earned over $300,000. The gelding has worked well on dirt. The barn is 15% winners moving runners from turf to dirt.

John Jones was off a beat slow last out and after pressing the early pace opened up heading for home and drew clear to win by nearly five lengths against $35,000 starter allowance foes. The Lacey Gaudet barn claimed this guy for $25,000 and he is perfect for the new connections in four starts including winning the restricted Mister Diz at Laurel Park going six furlongs on turf in his first go for the barn. His last trip was his first at nine furlongs. He is sharp and will be forwardly placed.

Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 8-5 or better.
EX: 1,3 / 1,3,4,7
TRI: 1,3 / 1,3,4,7 / 1,3,4,5,7

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Aqueduct
R1: #3 Schott 8-1
R2: #1 Orleans Avenue 8-1
R4: #6 Complicit 10-1
R4: #10 Sophie Germaine 10-1
R6: #2 Proven Commodity 10-1
R7: #5 Astounding 15-1
R8: #5 Highway Star 8-1
R9: #10 Stay Safe Kitten 12-1

Good luck today!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at The Meadows

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Post: 1:00 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 81 - Purse:$11100 - CD 2-6YO NW 5 EXT PM RACES OR $25,000 LIFE
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 6 FRISKIE CRUISER 3/1
# 3 THE CATAMOUNT KID 5/1
# 5 DAFINATY 5/2

Hey, listen up! FRISKIE CRUISER is the educated bet if you like to win. Overall rankings appear very good. Can't throw out at this point. When the trainer Burke puts Palone up for the drive really good things happen. Just check out the 33 win percent. Considered a solid bet based solely on his high triumph percentage. THE CATAMOUNT KID - Should compete quite well in this contest as his style of running fits well in this pack. This gelding has been racing against some of the most competitive company in this group of horses recently. DAFINATY - He has been going to post solidly and the TrackMaster Speed Ratings are among the most compelling in the race. Good for a win bet just off the outstanding prior class stats. Have to like this nice horse.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Northfield Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Post: 7:00 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 74 - Purse:$6000 - PROGRESSIVE CLAIMING SERIES FILLIES & MARES CLAIMING $6000
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 2 MISS JIM BOB 9/2
# 5 ROCHAS HANOVER 5/2
# 3 CYPRESS HILL ROSE 2/1

The consensus in this contest is that MISS JIM BOB is the one to beat. Worth considering for this race if only for the very nice TrackMaster speed fig achieved in the most recent affair. A really good win clip has been earned by nice horses coming from the 2 hole. The driver Schillaci has a knack with this mare, regularly cashing in their contests. ROCHAS HANOVER - Take a look at this interesting entrant's avg speed ranking of 75 and compare to today's class rating. Looks like a nice wager. Has to be given a look based on the nice speed figure recorded in the most recent race. CYPRESS HILL ROSE - Wrenn is racking up the wins these days. Amazing win percent makes this race horse our choice. Recorded a 67 TrackMaster Speed Rating last out. A duplicate effort here should get the triumph here.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Woodbine

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 8 - Stakes - 8.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $125000 Class Rating: 86

DISPLAY S. - FOR TWO-YEAR-OLDS. BY SUBSCRIPTION OF $125 EACH WHICH SHALL ACCOMPANY THE NOMINATION AND AN ADDITIONAL $1,250 WHEN MAKING ENTRY. THE PURSE TO BE DIVIDED: 60% TO THE WINNER, 20% TO SECOND, 10% TO THIRD, 5% TO FOURTH, 2% TO FIFTH, 1% TO SIXTH, 1% TO SEVENTH, 1% TO EIGHTH. WEIGHT 122 LBS. WINNERS OF A SWEEPSTAKES OF $60,000 TWICE AT A MILE OR OVER,


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 8 KING AND HIS COURT 2/1

# 2 GUY CABALLERO 8/1

# 9 JUROJIN 20/1

My choice in this event is KING AND HIS COURT. This pick will feel the med change - with second time Lasix today. Has to be given consideration based on the strong Equibase Speed Fig earned in the last affair. GUY CABALLERO - Has performed admirably recently in route races, posting a nifty 83 avg speed rating. This gelding with Hernandez in the irons makes him a solid choice. JUROJIN - Is hard not to look at given the company run in as of late.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Zia Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 5 - Claiming - 300y on the Dirt. Purse: $15500 Class Rating: 85

QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR REGISTERED NEW MEXICO BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 123 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 4 FIRST TO MOON YOU 6/1

# 12 ONE SWEET ROJO 30/1

# 9 KENNEL KITTY 4/1

FIRST TO MOON YOU appears to be the wager in here. Could beat this group given the 84 speed rating posted in his last outing. Has strong Equibase Speed Figs and has to be considered for a bet in this race. This gelding has a strong win percentage in short races. ONE SWEET ROJO - Has been racing well and has among the best speed in the race for today's distance. Recent figures for the jockey - 21 win percent - make this gelding stand out in this group of horses in this race. KENNEL KITTY - Has run solidly when racing a short race. Has ran quite well in short races.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Gulfstream Park - Race #5 - Post: 2:00pm - SS - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $110,000 Class Rating: 92

Rating:

#12 A PLACE TO SHINE (ML=9/2)
#11 MOONSHINE PROMISE (ML=10/1)
#1 LITTLEMISSPERFECT (ML=5/1)
#14 TOO CLEVER BY HALF (ML=12/1)


A PLACE TO SHINE - I like to bet on this angle, a racer coming back off a nice outing within the last thirty days. This filly is very reliable, frequently finishing in the money. A little change in scenery has got to do this animal well. Reading the PP lines, it seems like she likes to visit the winner's circle on different tracks. MOONSHINE PROMISE - Last time out, finished fifth in the slop at Thistledown. Have to do better in this race. LITTLEMISSPERFECT - Ran last time around the track against much better horses at Churchill Downs. The move down the ladder based on class should suit her well. This thoroughbred coming off a good try in the last month is a win candidate in my humble opinion. The 93 latest race rating looks good in the TrackMaster PPs. TOO CLEVER BY HALF - This one has shown the power to win at different racing venues. Making the move from Parx Racing for today's event, I have to believe she's ready to run.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 CONCEALEDWITHAKISS (ML=4/1), #9 SWEET MADEA (ML=8/1),

CONCEALEDWITHAKISS - This horse gave a less than rousing performance last time finishing seventh. Don't see any hint of any change in today's event. SWEET MADEA - Finished first in her most recent performance with a mediocre speed rating. When I look at today's class figure, it would take an improved performance to score after that in this group.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Putting our cash on #12 A PLACE TO SHINE to win. Have to have odds of at least 9/2 or better though

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [1,11,12]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:

[11,12] with [1,11,12,14] with [1,11,12,14] with [1,2,4,11,12,14] with [1,2,4,11,12,14] Total Cost: $72

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Laurel - Race #2 - Post: 1:00pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $30,000 Class Rating: 71

Rating:

#5 C B BODEMESTER (ML=6/1)
#1 TWO BIT DRIFTER (ML=9/2)
#7 TACTICAL HERO (ML=2/1)
#2 NOONAN ON THURSDAY (ML=12/1)
#3 FULL QUEST (ML=4/1)


C B BODEMESTER - Lynch drops him down to this class. You don't need too much more handicapping info to believe this horse has a good chance at this level. Entered a $50,000 Optional Claiming race at Laurel last out and raced on a track listed as good finishing fifth. Will most certainly do better today. TWO BIT DRIFTER - A horse coming back this quickly after a nice effort is a good signal. Adding blinkers often leads to a better effort on the racetrack. TACTICAL HERO - After a pair of sprints, he's routing today, which is probably what this gelding wants to do. This horse's last race was out at Parx Racing in a race with a class figure of 91. Dropping drastically in class rating in today's event puts him in a solid position in this race. This gelding has been posting some excellent workout times. This gelding notched a strong speed rating of 75 in his last event. That speed fig should be high enough to prove victorious in today's event. NOONAN ON THURSDAY - Recent speed figs show solid pattern of improvement. FULL QUEST - He has the highest earnings per start. Take a long look at this thoroughbred. I like to bet on this handicapping theory, a pony coming back off a strong contest within the last 30 days. This one has increased his speed ratings from a fig of 45 to 58 to 67 right in a row.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 HATTERAS BOUND (ML=6/1),

HATTERAS BOUND - This thoroughbred hasn't had nary a single workout after running so well on November 11th. When looking at today's class rating, he will have to garner a better speed figure than last race out to compete in this dirt route.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Play #5 C B BODEMESTER to win if you can get odds of 6/1 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [2,5]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

[1,5] with [1,5,7] with [1,2,3,5,7] with [1,2,3,5,7] Total Cost: $24

SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:

[1,5,7] with [1,2,3,5,7] with [1,2,3,5,7] with [1,2,3,5,7] with [1,2,3,5,7] Total Cost: $72

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Aqueduct

RACE #8 -AQUEDUCT - 3:47 PM EASTERN POST

The Go for Wand Handicap

8.0 FURLONGS DIRT GRADE III FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD STAKES $250,000.00 PURSE

#4 WONDER GAL
#3 BAR OF GOLD
#7 HIGH RIDGE ROAD
#5 HIGHWAY STAR

The race honors the career of the filly, Go For Wand, who as a two-year-old, she had a record of three-for-four before winning the 1989 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. Her performances earned her the 1989 Eclipse Award for Outstanding Two-Year-Old Filly. As a three-year-old, she was seven-for-nine and was voted the 1990 Eclipse Award for Outstanding Three-Year-Old Filly. In 1990 at Belmont Park she ran against the Argentinian mare Bayakoa in the Breeders' Cup Distaff. Go For Wand was leading by a head at the sixteenth pole when she suffered an open fracture to her right cannon bone. She fell to the track and threw jockey Randy Romero to the ground before rising to limp on three legs. Track personnel caught her and got her to lie down, and she was immediately euthanized on the track. The next day, she was buried in the infield at Saratoga racetrack. Like the death of Ruffian at the same track, the accident was shown by NBC on live television, and reminded viewers of that promising filly who was fatally injured on the track. Several veterinarians estimate that she broke her leg about twelve strides before she fell, which would mean that she suffered her catastrophic injury while passing the flagpole next to which Ruffian was buried. Here in the 62nd running of "The Wand," #4 WONDERR GAL takes a class drop (-9), and has produced "POWER RUN PERFORMANCES" in each of her last five outings, including a BLISTERING, 12-length, "POWER RUN WIN" in her 3rd race back. Jockey Kendrick Carmouche and Trainer Leah Gyarmati send her to the post ... they've hit the board with 54% of their entries saddled as a team to date. The morning line favorite is the overall speed leader in this stakes field racing at today's distance of a mile on the dirt, and has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in four of her last five outings, including "POWER RUN WINS" in both her last start, as well as in his 5th race back.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Woodbine Harness: Saturday 12/3 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF

Race 1 - $40,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

PICK 5: 2,3,5/4,5,6/2,4/2/4,8,9 = $10.80

EARLY PICK 4: 2/4,8,9/2,3,4,5/2,3,4 = $36

LATE PICK 4: 4,5/1,5,6/1,6,8/1,6,8 = $54

MEET STATS: 32 - 125 / $188.60 BEST BETS: 7 - 12 / $22.30

SPOT PLAYS: 2 - 12 / $9.50

Best Bet: BET YA (4th)

Spot Play: TRASHYTONGUETALKER (11th)


Race 1

(3) THINK ON IT extended his win streak to five in winning the Autumn series final and in doing so, he proved that he doesn't need the lead to win. He should be tough again here racing from close range. (5) DREAMY FELLA made a huge brush to the front in the third 1/4 - which he paced in 26 2/5 - then gamely dug in late. He is a force to be reckoned with right now. (2) FLAHERTY fits this class well if he can stay pacing this time. (9) PERFECT VISTA rarely misses a check and he could fill one of the bottom exotic rungs at a price here.

Race 2

(5) COOL ROCK was uncovered as the pace accelerated noticeably last time and he couldn't keep pace. He could get a much better setup for his late charge here. (6) ASAP HANOVER is another that will likely adopt a closing style which should play well here. (4) VEGAS ROCKS drops slightly and he could get a good trip near the front; using. (8) GRATIAS DEO is an interesting newcomer, but having missed four weeks he is likely to need this one.

Race 3

(2) VICTORIA SEMALU should be tough here moving inside eight posts; top call. (4) GREYSTONE LADYLIKE is another that should have a much easier time of it at the start moving to a better post. Toss her on Pick 5 tickets. (6) RUBIS PRESCOTT finished ahead of the choice last time and she can take another smaller share here. (1) BIG TSUNAMI should get a much better trip this time starting from the inside. She can pass a few of these and take a slice.

Race 4

(2) BET YA takes the plunge here and she should be tough to beat, although expect a short price. (1) BAROCKEY should also go much better here on the class drop - see her narrow loss in this class two back. (8) YOUR MY SECRET closed a big gap in the back 1/2 last week at a huge price; consider for exotics. (4) MAPLEA hasn't had the best year, but, she can close here for a minor share.

Race 5

(4) TWOMACSONEMACH couldn't withstand the wicked backstretch brush of the winner last week, but he could control things this time; top call. (8) CAMS LUCKY SAM made two moves and finished ahead of the choice. He looks like the main threat here. (9) SPEEDLING took a shuffle behind the choice last time after blasting to the lead first. He's worth a look here off that deceptively decent mile. (1) MIGRATE BLUE CHIP could get a decent trip here and take a share.

Race 6

(5) SANDBETWEENURTOES is at the top of her game and should be tough here again although she did miss a week in this class last week. (4) WRANGLER MAGIC keeps tiring very late and getting picked off. Maybe she looks for the pocket this week? (2) WAASMULA beat them all in this class last week off a decent trip and she is another to consider here. (3) DELIGHTFUL HILL is one I keep thinking will blast and sit a good trip near the front then spring an upset. I still think it will come soon.

Race 7

(4) MAJESTIC PRESENCE has blossomed in four starts for Henriksen and she looks best here; top call. (3) SWAN FOR DEE made a power move to beat easier and while she figures here, she will need more late speed to beat the choice. (2) SWEET ROYALTY qualified sharply for Baillargeon and if he stays flat here he should be a big factor. (8) MISSION MAN is another that should be in the thick of things from close range here.

Race 8

(5) NICKLE BAG was motoring up late last week but he couldn't quite reach the leader. He is consistent as they come and will win his share in this class this winter. (4) ANDREIOS KARDIA has won four straight in this class and he has shown some grit in many of those wins. He's the one to beat at a short price. (6) ALEXAS JACKPOT improved with Lasix last time. He can make the ticket again. (2) AMERICAN VIRGIN steps up off a win where he got a nice third 1/4 breather, but he could slide into one of the bottom exotic slots here.

Race 9

(5) BATOUTAHILL trotted the final 1/8th like he was shot out of a cannon last week. If he can reproduce that kind of kick, his rivals here will be in trouble. (6) PINK PISTOL stayed flat and raced okay behind the choice. She could improve off that comeback effort. (1) WALK TO FOLSOM drops back to the class where he took his life mark two back; using. (3) MANOFMANYIMAGES never missed the board so he may be rated a bit low here. He is hard to leave off tri bets.

Race 10

(6) COMPANY MAN raced decently off the claim last week and paced home quickly. Look for more aggressive handling this time. (8) DAYLIGHT RUSH is as sharp and as game as they come right now. He must be included on Pick 5 tickets. (1) PRESCOTTS HOPE hinted that he might break in the post parade last week. Keep a close eye on his score down. (3) VELOCITY DRIVEN rarely misses taking a share and tonight should be no different.

Race 11

(1) TRASHYTONGUETALKER paced a big mile last week coming off a vet scratch and a three-week break. I'll give him the nod here returning to a 7-day cycle. (8) CARRACCI HANOVER should be prominent on the class drop here. (6) WAZZUP WAZZUP also faces easier but he has missed some time; mixed signals. (2) CHAMPAGNE PHIL can make the ticket leaving from a much better post here. (9) IMKEEPNTHISGUY has taken some curious action the past two starts. He should be passing many of these in the final 1/4, but a smaller share seems likely.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Meadowlands: Saturday 12/3 Analysis
By Jay Bergman

DRF

Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 3 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Race 7 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

MEET STATS: 0 - 0 / $0.00

Best Bet: UNCLE COZ (1st)

Spot Play: SOME POWER (5th)


Race 1

(3) UNCLE COZ came off the shelf with a vengeance romping over similar at Pocono. Lightly raced gelding arrives sharp and should handle these with ease. (8) DJNORTHERNSTAR was in a very dull cover flow in his local debut and fired nicely in the stretch before overpacing himself near the wire. (10) BORN OF FIRE has a pedigree that suggests he'll improve with additional racing.

Race 2

(1A) IN THE ARSENAL returns to the big track after making a miscue at Yonkers bumping into the starting gate. This millionaire has a decided class edge over these and need only mind his manners to get the job done. (3) UNCLE LILE A has been on these shores a short time but continues to impress. Gets boosted up the ladder here facing the best field locally but may be more than up to the task. (5) ASHLEYS HUSBAND could be compromised once again by a slow pace.

Race 3

(8) EVER AGAIN is another top pick returning after a break at Yonkers and this one seems to be a standout in this pseudo-handicap event. Noel Daley-trained gelding has come of age towards the end of the campaign and should be able to overcome the assigned post. (3) CHILLN MATISSE looked like he had some potential earlier this year but has taken some time to get there. Soph is inside his main rival and could prove troublesome. (7) MAAJAACKKOBE ships in and moves into the Russo stable.

Race 4

(3) LAST DRAGON took plenty of early tote action last week then promptly took back at the start and lagged through a soft opening fraction. Sub-1:50 performer in his last two years should be able to rise to the occasion with a touch of early foot here. (2) MAJOR BUBBLES N can be excused for lackluster efforts against tougher in his last two given the outside draws; improved spot tonight. (7) STATESMAN N has a good deal of back class and needs to be respected in his return from Ontario.

Race 5

(3) SOME POWER has been matching strides with some tough mid-level claimers at Harrah's in recent weeks. One-time $270K yearling purchase seems to have a class edge on most of these. (5) BROWN COLOR had no chance in his local debut but finds a better spot and may look towards the front. (4) MR BLISSFULL steps up in class after two solid miles.

Race 6

(1) NORTHERN ASSASSIN A has shown high speed in both of his U.S. starts. Import may appreciate the big track and is certainly in a good spot. (8) BARIMAH A takes a nice drop in class after a much needed start and may look to get engaged early in this group. (9) ARI ALLSTAR moves into the Russo stable upon his arrival from Pocono and should do well at this level.

Race 7

(3) ELWELL was a 1:50 winner here a month ago from a similar spot and finally gets a bit of post relief. (1) URBANITE HANOVER is another in that's lost his edge racing from the outside. Veteran has speed and an inside lane. (7) JACKSRLUCKYTOO is in the midst of a banner season finishing first or second in nearly half of his 31 starts; post could be an issue.

Race 8

(8) MATRIX OF LUCK had no chance racing from off the pace in his local debut but held evenly late. Burke-trained Indiana-bred is likely to get closer to the action early this time. (1) J J FLYNN won in his first try for Spagnola at Saratoga. Soph faces mostly older foes here but clearly has the speed to handle the assignment. (3) SAM MCSMITH has obviously had issues this year with limited starts for Alagna but this son of McArdle qualified back strongly and may be ready for a late season surge.

Race 9

(5) SPEED AGAIN ships in relatively sharp for Burke and seems the best of these with Gingras in the bike. Dragon Again-sired gelding oozes class. (7) DR CS Z TAM can be excused for flattening out last time after being parked to a :26 2/5 opening quarter. Veteran has been racing at a higher level. (9) CITY HALL could be compromised by the outer draw but is razor sharp.

Race 10

(9) BOLD AND BRAVE was rather impressive finishing third after grinding up in a second move last week. Fusco-trained gelding draws outside again but may look to the front. (2) WINDSONG GORGEOUS is usually very tough at this level, especially with the inside draw. (3) GAMBLERS TALE has been knocking on the door but coming in a tad short recently; figures closely.

Race 11

(8) STIMULUS PLAN was extremely game on the front end failing to give in under constant pressure. Veteran was 1 for 21 prior to joining the Ginsburg stable this year and is now 2 for 2. (6) PARNU HANOVER is obviously a horse with plenty of talent but has had issues that have kept him from achieving a high level. A 1:49 3/5 winner as a 3-year-old he's won only two races since then and is now approaching 6. (2) ELRAMA N arrives off the claim by Russo and could be a factor with these.

Race 12

(6) OUR CULLENSCROWN N can be excused for getting a bit too wound up on the front end last week and caving in come stretch time. Veteran import has the ability to control the issue and should do so here. (2) ESPRIT DE KAYJAY A has been first or second in more than half of his 41 starts this year. Import changes hands but finds a solid spot. (1B) KEYSTONE CAMARO suffered from an overland journey in his first trip for Fraley and could rebound.

Race 13

(4) BROADIES SONG was used very hard against this type in last and did very well to hold on for third. With his speed and an inside draw he could get a more manageable fraction here. (5) OVERLOADED has a reasonable closing kick and may improve with the move to the big track. (8) TWINCREEKS JACK is dangerous with a trip.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Saturday 12/3 Analysis
By Matt Rose

DRF

MEET STATS: 432 - 1235 / $2,377.20

BEST BETS: 56 - 101 / $189.60

Best Bet: SANTA FE BEACHBOY (7th)

Spot Play: TAKE IT BACK TERRY (8th)


Race 1

(4) GYPSY LEATHER returns to the Allard barn via claim, keeps Dube and has won his last two at this level; veteran should be on the move early. (6) SHADIOS stepped up to the 30K claiming level and got hung to dry; he's back where he belongs. (2) RANGERS SURESHOT returns locally and has been sharp in his last two.

Race 2

(5) CHOCOLATE CRACKERS was very stubborn in defeat last out coming off a sick scratch and he looms the one to beat for these live connections. (6) FREENEASY HANOVER ships from Pocono for Burke, where he's been flashing solid speed. (2) ROGER MACH EM rallied well for a share last out in a needed start and looms a threat from the better post.

Race 3

(6) BETTOR REASON N debuts for the Hudson barn off the claim and he's proven to be capable with this type; he could get it done with a smooth trip. (5) LUCKY MCTRUCKY returns locally after blowing away lesser in his last three and he has some early speed at his disposal. (1) REAL FLIGHT has clearly tailed off recently but he does draw best and picks up Bartlett.

Race 4

(3) SWEET TALKIN SATIN powered away versus lesser in his debut for Milici and may have more to offer. (6) IN THE HUDDLE has solid speed and is clearly fast enough to go with these. (1) TYLER gets much-needed post relief and will be part of the early pace.

Race 5

(1) MACHS BEACH BOY should have finished better last out but he was used a bit in the early stages; he draws best and I'm willing to give him one last chance. (6) BIG SURF lacks the class of others but he's been very sharp. (4) BIG N BAD disappointed me last out and now Bartlett chose elsewhere.

Race 6

(4) MACINTOSH N surprised me with an aggressive eight-hole speed try last out; Vallee trainee remains sharp and the post relief helps. (8) DALHOUSIE DAVE remains at the same level off a win but he's stuck outside tonight. (5) KEYSTONE HONOR fits with these but needs a trip; closing threat.

Race 7

(4) SANTA FE BEACHBOY gets needed class relief, a decent post and Bartlett's back driving; lots to like. (3) DOCTOR BUTCH needed last week's start and is always better with an inside post; threat. (7) LUCAN HANOVER is another coming off a needed start where he was uninvolved; perhaps he shows more tonight.

Race 8

(4) TAKE IT BACK TERRY got away last and had too far to come in that record-setting mile last out; I fully expect him to be much more involved tonight. (3) P H SUPERCAM hasn't been at his best recently but lands a better spot and certainly is capable. (7) FIRST CLASS HORSE was game in defeat last out; erratic yet talented horse could land a share with some racing luck.

Race 9

(4) ROCK ABSORBER loomed large but flattened in his first start for new connections; prior to that race he had won four straight. (5) SPORTS BETTOR keeps Barteltt and has been very sharp. (6) DOJEA SOLO has had a very nice season and he would be a big threat with a better post; with that said he does have strong early speed to get into play.

Race 10

(3) OH JOHNY BE GOOD N has been very sharp in his last two and he faces no standouts here. (1) J T doesn't win often but he can rally late from this spot off a ground-saving trip. (4) MOONLITEONTHEBEACH has hit the board in his last four at this level.

Race 11

(4) TE KAWAU N returns locally off a sharp win at Pocono and he was facing better when last seen here. (5) MCERLEAN moved aggressively and was much the best last out; he can string multiple good efforts together. (2) HOLDINGALLTHECARDS remains at the same level off a front-end win and he draws well again.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Saturday

TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE

Aqueduct (4th) Divine Miss Grey, 5-1
(9th) Lover's Key, 5-1


Charles Town (6th) Deandrea's Pride, 7-2
(7th) Romantic Cork, 3-1


Del Mar (3rd) Yes Yes Yes, 7-2
(5th) Dr. Fager's Gal, 6-1


Fair Grounds (4th) Devine Teaching, 7-2
(5th) Full Tap, 9-2


Golden Gate Fields (2nd) Baruch, 5-1
(6th) Sea Myrtle, 4-1


Gulfstream Park (2nd) Classic Rock, 4-1
(9th) Northern Smile, 6-1


Hawthorne (8th) Ballyjamesduff, 4-1
(9th) Shmily, 5-1


Laurel Park (2nd) Full Quest, 4-1
(4th) Southern Peach, 8-1


Mahoning Valley (2nd) Lotto Cat, 4-1
(9th) Tracey Said So, 9-2


Parx (2nd) Miss Motivation, 6-1
(8th) Doublethestyle, 6-1


Penn National (2nd) Cairenn, 4-1
(6th) Hauler, 9-2


Remington Park (3rd) Gospel Commander, 8-1
(5th) Queen's Memories, 5-1


Tampa Bay Downs (2nd) Resident, 7-2
(3rd) Renee's Cat, 9-2


Turf Paradise (6th) Micmac Spree, 3-1
(7th) Flat Gone, 5-1


Turfway Park (4th) Bahama Benny, 5-1
(6th) Dear Elaine, 6-1


Woodbine (9th) Pulled the Goalie, 3-1
(10th) Mizzen George, 6-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Saturday’s six-pack

—*Washington 41, Colorado 10— Huskies cruise to*Pac-12 championship.

— Western Michigan 29, Ohio 23— Unbeaten Broncos win MAC title; next thing they’ll probably do is say goodbye to their coach, who will be getting big-money offers elsewhere.

— Major league managers will be relieved not to be picking All-Star Game reserves anymore; the Commish’s office will do it now.

— Bulls 111, Cavaliers 105— Cleveland is 0-3 so far this week.

— Duquesne 64, Pitt 55- Big upset in this crosstown*rivalry.

— According to ESPN.com,*since 2003, only 19.3% of regular-season NFL games have seen action in which more bettors were on the underdog more than the favorite. Public supported the under more than the over in just 11.6% of regular-season games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

#1 Sports

Early Saturday's Free Selection: UL-Monroe Warhawks + 6 1/2