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College Football Betting: Annual Army-Navy Game Takes Center Stage

The Navy Midshipmen are 6-5 on the year and rank second in the country with a ground attack that averages 357 yards per game. Even more impressive is the fact that they played the Ohio State Buckeyes and Notre Dame Fighting Irish this season, and finished the game against the Buckeyes with 370 rushing yards and a 5.9 yards per carry average. The Army Black Knights come in with a record below .500, but they also rely on a rushing attack that averages more than 300 yards on the ground per game, making this match-up between two very similar squads.

Navy Midshipmen @ Army Black Knights

Saturday December 13, 2014 – 3 PM ET

online odds: Navy -15

What To Watch For From The Navy Midshipmen

Navy has thrown the ball just 115 times all season long and figure to keep that number low this coming Saturday against another run dominant Army squad. They've relied heavily on Keenan Reynolds to carry the load as the quarterback leads the team with 205 carries for 1,082 yards. The team's leading running back is Noah Copeland, a big fullback who's averaging 8.2 yards per carry this season and has already ran for a career-high 859 yards. Navy has been able to move the ball on the ground and score points against all their opponents this season, even the ranked ones, which is why it's expected they run all over the Army Black Knights this Saturday and try their best to cover a 15-point spread. The Navy defense has been nothing special this season, holding opponents to under 20 points just once, which makes this match-up a toss up because of the two plus touchdown spread.

What To Watch For From The Army Black Knights

The Black Knights haven't even thrown the football 100 times this season, and just like the Midshipmen they're also a squad that has a running quarterback who's leading the team in carries and has a shot at finishing the season with over 1,000 yards on the ground. Angel Santiago is the senior signal-caller for Army, and with just three career touchdown passes it's obvious he wont be airing out the ball this coming Saturday. This is a game where you can expect 80 or more combined rushing attempts, which makes for a interesting match-up as the team who breaks more long runs is the one who likely will end up on top. Army's offense hasn't been as consistent as that of the Midshipmen, meaning this game could get out of hand early if Navy comes out ready to play.

Prediction

One of the most prestigious college football games of the year will be showcased this weekend and although the Navy Midshipmen are the easy pick to win the game, they aren't the easy sports betting pick as a 15-point spread will be no easy task to cover. Navy is already in a bowl game, whereas the Black Knights aren't and will treat this match-up as their season finale. While Army is the obvious underdog, both team's will move the ball at a slower pace this weekend and finish with a tightly contested score.

NCAAF Pick: Army
 
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Army meets Navy

ARMY BLACK KNIGHTS (4-7) vs. NAVY MIDSHIPMEN (6-5)

M&T Bank Stadium - Baltimore, MD
Kickoff: Saturday, 3:00 p.m. ET
Line: Navy -15, Total: 56.5

In one of the longest running rivalries in sports, Army and Navy will meet for the 115th time on Saturday afternoon.

The Midshipmen had a rough start to the year with a record of 2-4 (both SU and ATS) over their first six games, but have turned it around since that time with a 4-1 SU record (3-2 ATS) leading up to this contest. Over those five games, they have defeated their opponents by an average of 20.5 PPG and suffered their one loss against Notre Dame by a score of 49-39 as 14-point underdogs. Their most recent contest came against South Alabama on the road as 7.5-point favorites on Nov. 28 and they narrowly avoided an upset after outscoring the Jaguars 42-40. Navy tallied 430 yards of offense in the victory while getting 388 yards (7.2 YPC) from its triple-option offense, but also turned the ball over three times.

The Black Knights have had a forgettable 2014 campaign while going 4-7 (both SU and ATS) while winning two of their past three games. They were able to beat both 5-point favorite Connecticut by a score of 35-21, and 3.5-point favorite Fordham on Nov. 22 with a 42-31 victory. Army was actually outgained 471-430 against the Rams, as the team totaled 382 yards on the ground and had no turnovers for the second straight game. The Knights have been great at protecting the football with a mere six turnovers in the past eight games played. This rivalry has been dominated by Navy, which is 15-7 (both SU and ATS) since 1992, while winning in each of the past 12 meetings by an average of 22.3 PPG.

Last year, the Midshipmen rolled to a big 34-7 win as 13.5-point favorites as they had 343 rushing yards (6.0 YPC) and held Army to a mere 207 total offensive yards. Some interesting trends to keep an eye on in this one include that the Black Knights are 1-12 ATS (8%) after outrushing an opponent by 150 or more yards in the past three seasons, but they are 3-1 ATS as a neutral-field underdog in the same timeframe. There are no significant injuries to watch going into this game.

Just like its counterpart in this one, Army has a strong rushing offense and has averaged 305.5 YPG on the ground (6th in FBS) while being the worst team in the nation in passing (64.5 YPG), but have scored a respectable 26.3 PPG. QB Angel Santiago (488 pass yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) has had double-digit passing attempts in just three games this year and has eclipsed 100 passing yards only once. He is expected to control the offense with his legs and has 793 rushing yards (4.4 YPC) with 10 TDs this year while reaching 100 yards twice. HB Larry Dixon (1,012 rush yards, 9 TD) has been the top option in this offense and has gained more than 110 rushing yards four times this season. He has improved his performance over the past two games while averaging 136.5 YPG with a total of four touchdowns.

There is really no big threat in the receiving game, as WR Edgar Poe (199 yards, 1 TD) leads the team with 10 catches. The Black Knights defense has been one of the worst in college football while allowing opponents to put up 34.4 PPG against them, and could be in trouble against the Navy triple-option as they give up 191.9 rushing YPG. LB Jeremy Timpf (102 tackles, 3 INT, 14 TFL) has done his best to help this unit improve but will need some serious help to contend in this one.

The Midshipmen have always been known for their devotion to the triple-option and that has helped them to the second-best rushing offense in the nation (357.8 YPG) while they put up just 87.6 YPG through the air (2nd-worst in FBS), all leading to 34.5 PPG (33rd in nation). QB Keenan Reynolds (749 pass yards, 5 TD, 3 INT) is expected to do little in the passing game, as he has just 10.7 attempts per game while surpassing 100 yards only three times in his nine games. While he is not much of a passer, he leads the team in rushing with 1,082 yards (5.3 YPC) and 20 TD while gaining more than 250 yards on the ground in two of the past four contests. Besides Reynolds, both HBs Noah Copeland (859 rush yards, 5 TDs) and Chris Swain (574 rush yards, 4 TDs) have led the way running the ball. Copeland has gone into triple-digit rushing yards five times this year, and is coming off a solid performance in last week’s win over South Alabama with 112 rushing yards and 2 TD.

WR Jamir Tillman (338 rec yards, 2 TD) is the only player on the team with double-digit receptions (18) while having just one game with more than 70 receiving yards. The defense for this program has been poor while allowing 29.9 PPG to their opponents, and ranks 86th in the nation while giving up 426.2 YPG of total offense. LBs Jordan Drake (85 tackles) and Daniel Gonzales (73 tackles, 2 INT) lead the team on this side of the ball, and will be leaned greatly on to keep the Army rushing attack in check.
 
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NCAAF: Mejia's Free Selections

Tony Mejia continues his coverage this season as a regular contributor. Mejia will be providing his Straight Up predictions for select games each week during the 2014 season, plus he'll be analyzing one key matchup each week.

Along with this feature, Mejia also provides his weekly College Football Power Rankings.


Weekly Results
Week 15 (SU): 0-0
Overall (SU): 109-14
Game to Watch (SU/ATS): 10-4, 8-6

FCS Game to Watch: New Hampshire 30 Chattanooga 20
They call UNH's Cowell Stadium the "Dungeon." Lately, the nickname has really fit, since the Wildcats have won 13 straight there, adding to the advantage the top seed enjoys as they settle against Chattanooga amid freezing temperatures. The Mocs will be a tough out, packing a talented mobile QB in Jacob Huesman in addition to the FCS level's fifth-ranked defense, but UNH should prove too much on both sides of the ball. A tough defense and sound running game will help them pull away for a double-digit win, advancing to the FCS semifinals.


FCS - Assorted Selections

Team Predicted Score Team Predicted Score

North Dakota State 48 Coastal Carolina 28
Villanova 31 Sam Houston State 27
Eastern Washington 41 Illinois State 34
 
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Despite big spread, users split on Navy-Army
Stephen Campbell

Oddsmakers have given a big edge to Navy in their annual matchup with Army.

With the spread at Navy -15, the Midshipmen are receiving just 52 percent of support.

Total-wise, 54 percent are banking on the contest going under the set number of 56.
 
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Game of the Day: Navy vs. Army

Navy Midshipmen vs. Army Black Knights (+15, 57.5)

Is this finally Army's year? The Black Knights sure hope so as they look to end a 12-game losing streak against the rival Navy Midshipmen in their annual encounter in Baltimore. The 115th meeting between the storied foes sees Army looking to end a difficult season on a positive note, having won two of its previous three games coming in; the Midshipmen have more at stake in this one, as it will serve as a tuneup to a Dec. 23 bowl date with San Diego State.

It looked like Army and Navy might share the same fate midway through the season, but the Midshipmen have won four of their last five games - losing only to nationally-ranked Notre Dame over that span - to surge into the Poinsettia Bowl against the Aztecs in hostile San Diego. Navy has scored at least 39 points in each of its past five games and ranks second in the nation at 357.8 rushing yards per game. Army ranks sixth at 305.5 yards on the ground.

TV: 3 p.m. ET, CBS

LINE HISTORY: Navy has held steady as a 15-point favorite. The total opened at 60.5 but has since dropped three points.

INJURY REPORT: Navy - G Patrick Forrestal (leg), S Lonnie Richardson (concussion) and G Cam Henson (undisclosed) are out. LB James Britton (foot) is questionable. Army - OL Justin Gilbert (knee) is out. DB Geoffery Bacon (ankle) is questionable.

WEATHER REPORT: Temperatures at Jack Stephens Field at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium will be in the low-40s with partly cloudy skies and wind blowing northwest across the length of the field at 10 mph.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We haven’t seen a lot of movement in the spread, fluctuating a half point either way since opening at -15, and the action is mostly split. The total, however, has dropped a full four points and more than 85 percent of our wagers are on the under. Perhaps the expectance of a chess match between
two run-focused offenses has prompted players to grab the under." John Lester.

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Classic rivalry matchup concludes the regular season with Army looking to snap a 12-game series losing skid. The Cadets are much improved under first year had coach Jeff Monken with four wins this year - their best effort since 2010. Pronlem has lost 13 games in a row (1-12 ATS) in games off a win. On the flip side, Navy enters with a bowl bid in its back pocket. With a pair of rushing juggernauts going head-to-head, look for another low scoring military game." Marc Lawrence

ABOUT NAVY (6-5 SU, 5-6 ATS, 4-6 O/U): The Midshipmen were led by fleet quarterback Keenan Reynolds, who was a QB in name only - the 5-11 junior rushed for 1,082 yards and an eye-popping 20 touchdowns while passing for just five. He had plenty of help on the ground; 10 different Navy players recorded a rushing touchdown, while nine had at least 100 yards on the ground on the season and 18 players registered at least one carry. Jamir Tillman led the receiving corps with 18 receptions for 338 yards and two scores; no other player had more than nine catches.

ABOUT ARMY (4-7 SU, 4-7 ATS, 7-4 O/U): The roll call of Black Knights rushing threats isn't quite as long as that of the Midshipmen, but Army can also pound the ball with the best of them. Larry Dixon led the way with 1,012 rushing yards and nine scores, while quarterback Angel Santiago chipped in 793 yards on the ground and a team-best 10 TDs. The passing game was virtually nonexistent, with Santiago, A.J. Schurr and receiver Joe Walker combining to go 48-for-98 for 710 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions on the season.

TRENDS:

* Navy is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games following a SU victory.
* Army is 6-20 ATS in its last 26 games following an ATS win.
* Under is 8-1 in the Midshipmen's last nine November games.
* Under is 8-0 in the last eight meetings.

CONSENSUS: Navy has a slim edge , garnering 51.77 percent of the vote at -15.
 
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Navy cruising past Army in recent years
Stephen Campbell

In a series that dates back all the way to 1890, it's been a one-sided affair recently between Army and Navy.

Navy has emerged victorious in their past 12 annual meetings.

Books have the Midshipmen listed as 15-point road faves with a total of 56.
 
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NCAAF

Navy hasn't lost to Army since 2001, winning 12 in row, but Cadets are 3-2 vs spread in last five meetings. Army is 4-7 even with playing pair of I-AA teams (lost 49-43 to Yale); they're 1-4 as underdogs this year- their last four losses are all by 17+ points. Navy scored 39+ points in each of last five games, winning four, running for 336+ yards in all five games; they also allowed 31+ points three of last four games. Army is 15-41 passing TOTAL in its last five games. This game is in Baltimore, where Middies opened season with 34-17 loss to Ohio State.
 
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NCAAF

ARMY (4 - 7) vs. NAVY (6 - 5) - 12/13/2014, 3:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.
ARMY is 12-23 ATS (-13.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
ARMY is 12-23 ATS (-13.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
ARMY is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
ARMY is 12-33 ATS (-24.3 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
ARMY is 10-33 ATS (-26.3 Units) after a bye week since 1992.
ARMY is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
NAVY is 142-109 ATS (+22.1 Units) in all games since 1992.
NAVY is 142-109 ATS (+22.1 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NAVY is 30-16 ATS (+12.4 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NAVY is 131-100 ATS (+21.0 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
NAVY is 32-15 ATS (+15.5 Units) in road games in games played on turf since 1992.
NAVY is 34-14 ATS (+18.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NAVY is 1-1 against the spread versus ARMY over the last 3 seasons
NAVY is 2-0 straight up against ARMY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
 
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NCAAF

Trends

ARMY vs. NAVY
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Army's last 5 games when playing Navy
Army is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Navy
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Navy's last 5 games when playing Army
Navy is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Army
 
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College Football Trends

College Football Betting Trends - Sat, Dec. 13

Army at Navy, 3:00 ET
Army: 2-10 ATS in road games after gaining 125 or less passing yards in last game
Navy: 19-8 ATS in road games off 1 or more straight overs
 

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