Saturday 11/15/14 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Steve Rich

Virginia Tech vs. Duke

Bonus Play Duke -4 Noon ET ESPNU

This Duke team doesn’t look good on paper but all they do is win. They are looking to appear in their second straight title game against Florida State and have their last 3 games at home. If Duke takes care of business they will win the ACC Coastal Division for the second year in a row. Are you kidding me? Duke? This isn’t basketball we’re talking about here it is football. It starts with Virginia Tech this Saturday. The Hokies have trended the other way. They are 1-6 ATS their L7, and 15-33-1 since late 2010. Meanwhile Duke is 8-0 L8 and 11-1 L12 at Wade Wallace Stadium. HC David Cutcliffe has really revived this Duke program and is putting his name on the list of coaches to call when the large programs start looking for a new head coach. I think we’re getting some line value here as Duke is only a four point favorite.

Bonus Play on Duke

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bryan Leonard

South Carolina vs. Florida

Bonus Play OVER

369 South Carolina at Florida
The Gamecocks have been a very good offensive team this year, even when taking on top quality defensive squads. Against Top 50 defenses South Carolina is averaging 34 points per game. That includes 38 against a very good Georgia stop unit. Unfortunately it’s the Gamecocks defense which has been the culprit this season, especially when facing quality offenses. Texas A&M lit them up for 52, Georgia for 35, Missouri & Auburn combined for 63.
Florida has struggled when stepping up in class against good stop units. That hasn’t been the case when facing defenses outside the Top 50. The Gators have scored 135 points in the three games against lesser stop units. While Florida gets a lot of credit for its defensive prowess, the best offenses it faced scored 31 points per game against them. With both offenses clicking right now we will call for a high scoring affair.
PLAY OVER

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Heath Mac

Army vs. Western Kentucky

Mac Attack's 2* CFB Bonus Play on Army Black Knights @ Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Total UNDER 70.5 points.

Whilst neither of these teams are particularly good on defense, a total OVER 10 touchdowns is a little high. The Hilltoppers will throw the ball around and likely get their 38 points, but Army average just 24 ppg on 360 yds of offense - of which 300 yds comes on the ground. Those runs have been successful and they are an excellent rushing side, but the clock will keep ticking and this one goes UNDER. Western Kentucky 38 Army 24.

Take the UNDER 70.5 points here for our 2* Bonus Play.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Kyle Hunter

Mississippi State vs. Alabama

*3 Star Free Pick* Under

Mississippi State has been very good this year, but now they must go on the road and prove themselves against the best defense in the SEC (and possibly the best defense in the country). Alabama's defense has impressed me a lot in recent weeks. This is a group that rallies to the ball extremely well. While I like Dak Prescott, I expect him to find yards much tougher to come by on the ground and through the air against a defense like Alabama's. The Crimson Tide offense isn't likely to light up the scoreboard on a Mississippi State defense that is much better than they were expected to be. In the last ten meetings between Mississippi State and Alabama, the single highest total score was 45 points! That's a full touchdown below this posted total. Take the under.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sam Martin

Florida St at Miami FL 8:00PM

5* Florida St

Reason: 5* Play on Florida State. According to the linesmakers, this is the toughest test Florida State will have faced all season long, lining up as a small favorite (1.5 points as of this writing) on the road against Miami FL. Hurricanes have been coming on strong of late and are a solid foe - but not good enough to knock off a #2-ranked opponent and we'll back FSU to win and therefore cover this small number.

Matchups favor the Seminoles, as they are weak in the secondary but stout against the run on defense, and all Miami can do offensively is run the ball. Don't trust the Hurricanes to do enough damage through the air to take advantage of FSU's defensive weaknesses. FSU has not been the same dominant team they were a year ago, but they have been pretty consistent offensively and shouldn't have too much trouble against a stop unit they put up 41 points on last year. 5* Play on Florida State.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at North Side Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 5 - Post: 1:20 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 72 - Purse:$700 - NON WINNERS $435 L6 OR $70 PS IN 2013-14


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 2 LILS DESTINY 5/2


# 1 LE FUGUEUR 3/1


# 6 PICTONIAN FANCYPAS 4/1


LILS DESTINY figures to be our best wagering option in this affair. Seems to have a respectable class advantage based on the starters he has raced against. Considered a solid wager based solely on his high trip to the winner's circle percent. LE FUGUEUR - You have to get behind a horse that likes to win, very high win percent. Could provide us a victory based on really strong recent TrackMaster speed figs - earning an average of 74. PICTONIAN FANCYPAS - Could best this race, just look at the speed rating - 74 - from his last performance.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Saratoga Harness

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 5 - Post: 8:05 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 84 - Purse:$7500 - $12,500 CLAIMING ALLOWANCE SARATOGA


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 3 I'M THE REAL MAJOR 9/5


# 5 LEGACY N DIAMONDS 3/1


# 4 KID COURAGEOUS A 7/1

The pick in this race is I'M THE REAL MAJOR. Getting a good feel about this gelding. Could surprise in here. Have a feeling this one might take in this contest. That 83 speed figure clocked in the last affair puts this standardbred in the mix for this race. LEGACY N DIAMONDS - This race horse looks tough. Look at the 85 average speed figure. With a respectable 85 speed rating last time out, will more than likely be a factor in this competition. KID COURAGEOUS A - Has one of the most compelling win figures in the group and may be able to add to those figures today.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rusty Nash at Meadowlands

Rustys Simulcast Best Plays for

Woodbine ~ Yonkers ~ The New Meadowlands ~ Balmoral - Pocono

Saturday November 15, 2014

Handicapped using TrackMaster Charts, TrackMaster Plus Programs and Data Files, my personal Speed Rating Projections and several decades of keen observation!

Overview of Todays Simulcast Selections

Crown eliminations continue this evening! Some interesting races are on tap.

Some of the other tracks projection worksheet appear to hold a series of nice singles today. More than the usual number of top projections.

The HANA contest is off this weekend. Everyone is gearing up for next week!

For the Bonus Plays this season we will go with our 3 horse Projection Worksheet Exacta Boxes. This is defined as a situation where the projected gap between the third and fourth horses is four lengths or more. The secondary qualification is that none of the other horses in the race can be on my watch list. Some weeks we have quite a few other weeks they can be pretty scarce.

My only word of caution here is my worksheet does not include qualifiers. Horses coming off of a Q are usually found at the bottom of the list. Part of your job is to determine if the play should be altered in any way.

Wishing us all great racing luck this evening!

* * *
Rustys Best Plays guarantee a minimum of three races with full description and initial wagering thoughts 24-48 hours out. These are the races that look most interesting from a wagering perspective. Usually we will end up with about 4-6 races where a decent play may materialize if the odds are with us. Other races may be found with little or no commentary or only my list of rated contenders. These are races where I probably do not have a strong opinion or think should be avoided for other reasons. Normally I troll these races looking for overlays among my top rated selections. They are also useful for DD, P3, and P4 sequences.
If you are not already a member of my listserve, please feel free to sign up. The list is BettinS-Breds@yahoogroups.com. Make the request through YahooGroups and I will be happy to approve you membership.

I use the same care in preparing this report as I do for my own private equine investing!

Please compare my selections names and numbers to the official program. I do, and so should you. Now, off to the races......

Please note these exacta plays are listed in numerical order and not my graded order.

The New Meadowlands Race #8 Exacta Box: 1 ~ 5 ~ 9.
The New Meadowlands Race #9 Exacta Box: 1 ~ 2 ~ 3.
The New Meadowlands Race #11 Exacta Box: 1 ~ 2 ~ 3.
The New Meadowlands Race #12 Exacta Box: 1 ~ 4 ~ 7.

Woodbine Race #6 Exacta Box: 2 ~ 4 ~ 5.

Yonkers Race #9 Exacta Box: 1 ~ 2 ~ 5.

Balmoral Race #7 Exacta Box: 1 ~ 4 ~ 5.
Balmoral Race #11 Exacta Box: 1 ~ 3 ~ 9.

Good luck! See you right back here next time.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 5 - Claiming - 8.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $4950 Class Rating: 76

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES IN 2014 AND WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $5,000 OR LESS. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 121 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 31 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 15 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 15 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $3,500.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 3 CONCERTOS PRIDE 9/5


# 8 MAMBO BELLA 5/1


# 9 PRETENCIOSA 6/1

I've got to go with CONCERTOS PRIDE. Has been close at the finish most every time lately. The trainer wheels this one back soon to race again. This pony is highly ranked this group in earnings per start at the distance/surface. MAMBO BELLA - Has run very well when racing a dirt route race. Is hard not to examine based on Speed Figures which have been decent - 67 avg - of late. PRETENCIOSA - Has run solidly when moving a dirt route race. Could beat this group of horses in this race given the 73 speed figure earned in her last outing.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Del Mar

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 4 - Maiden Special Weight - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $56000 Class Rating: 95

FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 6 J SERINO 6/1


# 8 MOONLIGHT MEETING 8/1


# 4 MONSIEUR POWER (IRE) 12/1

J SERINO looks respectable to best this field. Could beat this group given the 88 Equibase speed fig recorded in his last outing. Have to look at solely on class, with some of the top class figs of this group. MONSIEUR POWER (IRE) - He has been moving admirably lately while recording strong Equibase Speed Figures.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Turf Paradise - Race #2 - Post: 1:25pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $6,800 Class Rating: 69

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#3 QUEEN ON THE GREEN (ML=4/1)
#1 EASTER HARMONY (ML=6/1)
#2 GAME KICK (ML=9/2)


QUEEN ON THE GREEN - When a sprinter is back in a race less than 10 days after her last outing, it generally means she's fit. Good return on investment for this rider and trainer tandem. This speedy sort is shortening up today. Should promote her chances of winning. EASTER HARMONY - Mare took a little vacation, but has been racing into shape. Magrady brings this mare back into a race rather than a workout. He knows his mare is on top of her game. Getting a break of 9 pounds from last race at Turf Paradise. She should make the most of this advantage. GAME KICK - This filly was sharp enough to post a 'top two' workout recently. I think she's ready for today's event. Taking this jockey/handler combination is a good choice.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 BELLA PARVATI (ML=5/2), #7 JACARANDA CAT (ML=3/1), #5 HOT WILDCAT (ML=8/1),

BELLA PARVATI - Hasn't finished in the money in any sprint races recently. Not probable to see her doing it today either. JACARANDA CAT - Oddsmaker's morning line of 3/1 make this horse a pass by my standards. HOT WILDCAT - Today's race is 5 1/2 furlongs. Hasn't finished in the money in a short distance clash in the last two months. Not the best of omens. Recorded a common speed figure last out in a $3,500 Claiming race on April 12th. Not probable to see an improved performance off of that figure.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Have to go with #3 QUEEN ON THE GREEN on the win end if we get at least 3/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [1,2,3]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [1,2,3] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Mountaineer - Race #4 - Post: 8:06pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $8,400 Class Rating: 86

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#8 PALMETTO MOON (ML=8/1)
#6 GAR (ML=10/1)
#10 WILLPLAYNINESUNDAY (ML=6/1)
#9 REPHRASE (ML=5/1)


PALMETTO MOON - This gelding is tried right back into a race in less than 10 days; this is a positive sign. Don't often see a favorable return on investment like +45. This rider/handler tandem has done well together over the last twelve months. Ran last time out against better company at Mountaineer. The move down the ladder based on class rating points should suit him well. GAR - I think the shorter distance will help this gelding stay the trip. I like to play this angle, a thoroughbred coming back off a strong outing within the last month. WILLPLAYNINESUNDAY - Gelding has shown some speed. This shorter trip should be better for him. Baird must have known this gelding would run well at this track. Won his last race here on Oct 25th and now goes for a double. This gelding is in nice form, having run a good race on Oct 25th, finishing first. REPHRASE - This campaigner coming off a solid contest in the last thirty days is a strong challenger in my book. Have to like the way Shilling has raced this gelding back into shape off the layoff. Horse is well spotted in this sprint and I think he'll run well today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 TROUBLE IN DODGE (ML=3/1), #4 FLIP FLOP (ML=4/1), #1 AMBER DUBAI (ML=8/1),

TROUBLE IN DODGE - The probable favorite is shaky here with the lack of morning blow outs. FLIP FLOP - Never really did much at all in the last race on Sep 21st. Hard to bet on in today's event. The rating last race out doesn't fit very well in this event when I look at the class rating of today's event. Mark this horse as a possibly overvalued equine. AMBER DUBAI - Garnered a common speed rating last time around the track in a $5,000 Claiming race on October 25th. Unlikely to see an improved performance off of that figure.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - GAR - Betting the horse with the best last race speed figure is a good angle. None higher than this gelding's last one.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Put your money on #8 PALMETTO MOON on the nose if you can get odds of 4/1 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [6,8,10]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Aqueduct

RACE #7 - AQUEDUCT - 3:14 PM EASTERN POST


The Red Smith Handicap

11.0 FURLONGS TURF GRADE III THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD STAKES $250,000.00 PURSE

#4 BIG BLUE KITTEN
#1 RED RIFLE
#11 MANIGHAR
#8 LEGENDARY

Well folks ... this race which was run as The Edgemere Handicap until 1981. The Red Smith Handicap honors the late sportswriter Walter Wellesley "Red" Smith (1905-1982). A Pulitzer Prize winner in 1976, Smith covered sports for 55 years, most notably for The New York Herald Tribune and later The New York Times, writing a widely syndicated column for both outlets. According to his obituary published in the Times: "He preferred covering sports like baseball, football, boxing and horse playing ('not horse racing,' he emphasized) and disdained what he called 'back and forth' sports like basketball and hockey." Here in the 58th running of this stakes event, #4 BIG BLUE KITTEN is the overall speed leader in this field racing at, or about, today's distance of 11.0 furlongs on the turf, and has produced "POWER RUN PERFORMANCES" in five straight, hitting the board in three of those "adventures," including a "POWER RUN WIN" in his 4th race back. The 10-1 BOMB, #1 RED RIFLE has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in four straight, including a "POWER RUN WIN" in his respective 2nd race back. Jockey Joe Bravo and Trainer Todd Pletcher send him to the post for the "Saturday Feature" ... they've hit the board with 57% of their entries saddled as a team to date, producing a +57% return on investment in the process.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Woodbine Harness: Saturday 11/15 analysis
By Greg Gangle

DRF HARNESS


Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet: BUCKEROO (2nd)

Spot Play: REAL ROCKER (11th)


Race 1

(4) CANBEC KINGKAZIMIR faces a much softer group this evening as he gets much needed class relief. (7) BETTOR AGAIN drops in class this week and that's the main reason for my selection. (2) F TWENTY TWO finished second in each of his last two starts in this class, draws inside and comes from a high percentage barn in Sue Gangell.

Race 2

(6) BUCKAROO has a patented late kick in the end of the mile therefore a short field can only benefit him as he races from behind. (7) NIRVANA SEELSTER has been on top form as of late and has been ultra-consistent all season for trainer Bill Budd. (3) REGAL SON has been on top of his game as of late for trainer Don Lindsey.

Race 3

(5) WINDSUN REVENGE is a top threat again this week after capturing last week’s edition for trainer Jeff Durham. (1) RIVETING ROSIE draws the rail in this dash and has put together a solid career while racing in the Ontario Sires Stakes Gold Series. (4) COUSIN EDDIE has quickly made a name for himself on this circuit with his consistency and terrific on-the-board record this season.

Race 4

(5) ARAMBLIN HANOVER has been knocking on the door as of late and it's only a matter of time before he enjoys his third career tally. (1) HIT AND GIGGLE A received some time off and qualified back on Nov. 7 with a good effort in 1:56.1 while finishing third. (9) VERO HANOVER has been racing very well as of late for trainer Bruce Gilkinson.

Race 5

(8) BODY BALANCE has been much better since receiving some time off from trainer Brad Maxwell. (2) KEYSTONE TREVOR continues to offer a high price and hopefully that happens again this week and can look to capitalize. (7) GIRL DRAMA was claimed last week for $12K by trainer Tim Cherwaiko and he'll look for a nice payday in this $20K purse.

Race 6

(4) ALEXAS JACKPOT comes from a high percentage trainer in Marty Fine and the talented gelding drops in class this week after finishing third at a higher level. (5) THEPANINSULAHOTEL is a back-class pacer that can't get overlooked when racing at this level. (1) KG DRAGONATOR will debut for new trainer Ted Macdonnell and the four-year-old begins from the rail at this lower level.

Race 7

(7) DAYLON MAGICIAN is hard not to consider for top honours in here with the class drop as there is no Preferred Trot this week. (6) FEARLESS MAN raced very well last week for trainer/driver Rick Zeron as the talented trotter finished third at the Preferred event at 37-1. (5) SLIP INTO GLIDE comes from the Baillargeon barn and the six-year-old has hit the board in three of his last four starts.

Race 8

(9) D GS PESQUERO will debut for new trainer Corey Johnson this evening and that's an angle I'm using with this talented mare. (5) RADAR CONTACT has earnings nearing $700K in her career and certainly has the speed to offer for this class. (3) SOMEWHEREINHEAVEN went a tough opening quarter last week and that affected her performance down the stretch.

Race 9

(3) DOVUTO HANOVER has been ultra-consistent while racing in this Preferred field and can't get overlooked. (2) DAPPER DUDE has been a steady competitor in this top class all summer and comes from a Hall of Fame trainer in Bob McIntosh. (1) NICKLE BAG lit up the toteboard last week at 18-1 for driver Trevor Henry and trainer Shawn Robinson.

Race 10

(3) CAMAES FELLOW comes from the Carmen Auciello barn and returns to this level of which he was claimed at four starts back. (4) THUNDER STEELER might have the quickest gate-speed in the field and it will be utilized when the gates unfold for driver Doug McNair. (5) SING FOR ME GEORGE has earnings approaching $100K for the season and the gelding raced in the Preferred event just three starts back.

Race 11

(3) REAL ROCKER drew outside last week and went to the back of the field. (1) MACHAL JORDAN continues to offer a low price at this level and can't get overlooked this week. (8) ARTHUR went to the back of the field last week from an outside post and wasn't a factor, but he may be more forwardly placed tonight for driver Jonathan Drury.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Balmoral: Saturday 11/15 Analysis
By Jeremey Day

DRF HARNESS


Race 10 - $20,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet (46 - 92 / $181.70): SVAYA KNOWS (8th)

Spot Play: JACKSON BERLOW (10th)


Race 1

(1) EARNDAWG towers over the field on paper; short price. (2) MOTORIN MATT lightly raced pacer could offer some value underneath. (4) MIGHTY HOT SHOT has stepped his game up recently but would need much more to hit the top spot.

Race 2

(5) ELECTRIC INTENSITY raced super last out and could have some room to improve third start for new connections. (9) CHIPPER gelding pacer has really turned it around in his last two but needs someone to push the pace early; fires late. (4) GO RUN N TELLTHAT is capable of a good effort in a field full of question marks.

Race 3

(6) SKYWAY BRENLIN raced gamely last out and finds a soft spot to make it two straight with a good effort. (7) RED PINE dropped and popped last out and has room to improve against tougher. (2) WHATWILLHEBE pacer's last effort at Maywood would put him in the mix with this bunch; threat.

Race 4

(5) SS TOMMY TURNER five-year-old pacer makes his third start back off a layoff for hot connections; big chance. (8) STAR OF THE GAME has a tough post to overcome but has been close in his last two. (4) MY BOY CAL also drops to the bottom level and should offer a good price coming off a scratch.

Race 5

(6) ALWAYS ABOUT KATEY has lacked pop late in her last three, however the pacer finds an ideal spot to get back on track. (3) STATE STREET LIZ mare is one of few threats to the top choice, picks up the top driver, and will be firing early. (1) HELLO MY DREAM filly is talented but could be overmatched against the favorite; use underneath.

Race 6

(7) RYLEIGH'S LILLY the pacing mare's best effort would be good enough; top driver's choice. (2) DALLAS JONES four-year-old is probably the fastest pacer in the race but has been off her game and gets a suspect pilot in the bike. (9) TOSHIE SPECIAL has the ability to pace a good mile and will offer a big price.

Race 7

In a good betting race (5) JUSTICE JET faces older but owns a wicked brush when timed right. (4) CELEBRITY HERCULES never had a chance last out but did race much better than the start prior; threat. (1) EVIL URGES gelding has a tough time winning at this track; command a price.

Race 8

(4) SVAYA KNOWS faces much easier competition than his recent win. (1) ACES AGAIN just missed repeating at this level last out and has been sharp. (5) FORTUNE DOR gelding needed his last start coming off a long layoff and should improve second start back.

Race 9

(2) IN OVER MY HEAD was off a long time between starts last race and is fast enough to beat this group at a price with some racing luck. (3) TIME TO ROLL impeccably bred stallion can do it in a variety of ways but looks to be sitting the pocket into a very fast pace. (4) FORT SILKY is in the same boat as the top choice and faces slightly easier.

Race 10

(4) JACKSON BERLOW has been overmatched in his last few but could find this field more to his liking; threat. (1) KINGOFTHEJUNGLE came up empty on the off track last out and has just been racing evenly; use caution. (8) MAJOR MONET owns all the back class and will be firing with a purpose early.

Race 11

(3) LIFE IS GOOD TODAY has just been racing evenly but finds an inconsistent group and should offer value. (7) LUCKY CRUSADER will offer a monster price and is capable of picking up the pieces with a fast pace to close into. (9) HOLY CHIP the connection's efforts vary from week to week. Last week the pacer was used very aggressively. If the pacer is driven the same way he could be the horse to beat even bumping up in class.

Race 12

(3) SAGE RUCK was sneaky sharp last out and could be ready for a big effort. (5) FOX VALLEY REBEL was loaded with pace last race with nowhere to go blocked behind the leaders in the stretch. (8) FOX VALLEY CUPID gelding owns a big three-quarters of a mile but has a tendency to fold up shop late; use underneath.

Race 13

(10) RICKIE BOBBIE will need to find a way into the race but was on fire late last out from way back. (4) MONOPOLY MAN gelding makes his third start back off a long layoff and should show some improvement; threat. (3) SHISWELL'S DELIGHT has been competitive at this level just missing in his last two.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Meadowlands: Saturday 11/15 Analysis
By Derick Giwner

DRF HARNESS


Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 3 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Race 7 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool


MEET STATS: 0 - 0 / $0.00

Best Bet: LIMELIGHT BEACH (7th)

Spot Play: JK ENDOFANERA (5th)


Race 1

(7) NOT AFRAID finds the type of spot where he typically takes charge. (5) MA CHERE HALL should enjoy the class relief she gets tonight. Talented 4YO mare is the other likely winner in the group. (2) BLOODSTOCKSHALLTAB comes in sharp for Burke/Gingras.

Race 2

(5) PINKMAN took a couple of weeks off following his Valley Victory score. Gingras chose here over (6) HABITAT (11-7-2-1), who he has driven just about every week. The latter came up short two weeks back but rebounded nicely. If he is offering a much better price than my top choice, you may want to jump ship. (4) GUESS WHOS BACK has the talent and now adds hobbles; interesting.

Race 3

(1) ANNDROVETTE & (1A) SHELLISCAPE form a powerful entry for trainer PJ Fraley. The former figures to be on the engine and possibly setting a soft pace while the latter is a strong closer that can get the job done if the pace quickens early. (5) CAMILLE never got involved last time, but should be forwardly placed in this spot; big threat.

Race 4

(4) MUSCLE DIAMOND has been as consistent as they come and finds a field with plenty of early speed to set up his late charge. (9) CRUZADO DELA NOCHE is getting better with each start; don’t count him out. (7) FRENCH LAUNDRY sports a sparkling 6-for-10 record, but the competition gets tougher this week.

Race 5

(1) JK ENDOFANERA was given a conservative steer and even a 25 4/5 final quarter couldn’t help him make a dent in the hole he was in late at Hoosier. Now he draws inside and figures to be front and center for the early action. (4) ALWAYS B MIKI has been on a tear and may just be the best 3YO in the country right now. (3) SOMEWHERE IN L A rebounded from a rare subpar effort with his usual workman-like performance; tough to toss. (6) HE’S WATCHING returns to the scene of his greatest win; ready for a big one?

Race 6

(4) WAKE UP PETER is a bit of a grinder who can wear down horses late. That move is better suited to the Meadowlands. Time for Peter to wake up. (6) CLEAR VISION excels in small fields where he can attack on the rim without much traffic; very dangerous. (3) AL’S HAMMERED has been a killer in Illinois. Can he handle the big time?

Race 7

I always seem to find a reason to pick against (8) LIMELIGHT BEACH, but this looks like a perfect spot where he can control the action; all systems go. (3) MCWICKED was better last time, but his recent form hasn’t been great. Maybe new driver Brian Sears can get him going. (5) CAPITAL ACCOUNT is making a good living as a fringe player against the divisions best.

Race 8

(5) RICH WISDOM missed more than a month prior to his last start and never got in gear. Looking further into his PP lines you see the talent is there. (7) LYONS AGAIN couldn’t handle the trip in the Governor’s Cup. I’m sure he’ll be on or near the lead this week. (2) LOST FOR WORDS didn’t get the job done in Canada, but he isn’t the first horse to head north and have trouble. David Miller is back in the bike now and Lasix is added; plenty to like.

Race 9

(2) HALL BRO has really picked up his game for new trainer Ron Burke. This is a tougher spot but he might be too sharp to deny. (1) SWEET ROCK picked up his biggest career win when last here on Hambo Day in the NJ Classic. I wouldn’t be shocked if he stepped up. (4) LORD OF MISRULE seems as good as any of the rest.

Race 10

(2) YOUR SO VAIN proved back in July that he can fire a big shot off the bench. I’m willing to take a shot in a wide open race. (8) ARCH MADNESS couldn’t handle the extra quarter-mile at Yonkers last time. Ten-year-old veteran seems to be in form now and would be no surprise. (10) MAVEN switches trainers once again after the $750K purchase at Harrisburg. She proved last time the talent is still there; tough post. (4) MASTER OF LAW has ability but remains volatile; maybe. (7) WISHING STONE is a horse that gets lost in the wagering but usually races well.

Race 11

(10) IN THE ARSENAL has proven himself the best 2YO colt pacer in training right now. I don’t love the post, but I’m not sure I see another horse I feel confident can beat him. (3) LYONS LEVI LEWIS kept up with the top choice last time and might be moving in the right direction. (5) HALL OF TERROR put in his best mile with Lasix and gets the medication back again for Saturday. (7) TOMY TERROR was never worse than second in 10 starts prior to last week; don’t forget him.

Race 12

(3) WORD POWER should be right at home against these B-1 horses. The only question mark is the recent scratched-sick line. (4) ADVENTURE BOUND just paced under 1:50 at Rosecroft; that’s impressive. (1) BAD BOY MATT & (6) MUSTANG MACH N are also legitimate contenders.

Race 13

(4) IDEAL CHAMP should be leaving away from the gate and sit first or second. McDermott trainee is very capable of winning and may be overlooked in the wagering. (1) OK COMMANDER has tons of class and may prefer the switch to the bigger track. (10) SECOND WIND N lured Tetrick off my top pick; post the only issue. (6) BLATANTLY BEST adds Lasix. (7) LAST DRAGON has plenty of form.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Saturday 11/15 Analysis
By Matt Rose

DRF HARNESS


MEET STATS: 337 - 986 / $1779.90 BEST BETS: 55 - 81 / $179.00

Best Bet: FAT MANS ALLEY (11th)

Spot Play: MONTRAL PHIL (4th)


Race 1

(3) LATE NITE FLIGHT debuts for Fraley after getting nipped last out by a classy rival and Bartlett hops aboard; worth a try in the opener. (1) MISSISSIPPI HIPPY also goes for a new barn and he's been in good form recently. (4) BLADE SEELSTER continues to race well and he always offers a good price.

Race 2

(5) THORN IN YOUR SIDE was very game in defeat last week versus one notch lesser and he could be forwardly placed again tonight. (1) DUEL IN THE SUN gets much-needed post relief tonight; logical. (4) THE BRUISER drops in class and should be considered a threat at this level.

Race 3

(1) ROCK TO GLORY returns from Saratoga and the Godinez trainee has plenty of back class; Dube should work out a perfect trip from this spot. (6) HANG TEN goes second-time at this reduced level for Burke but he really hasn't been firing his best recently. (2) NEPTUNE was uncovered into a rated pace and could not threaten last week; maybe from this inside post he can land a share.

Race 4

(4) MONTREAL PHIL flattened after chasing a well-rated front end winner last week upon dropping to this level; Lachance-trained veteran is overdue and should be aggressively handled. (6) BET THE MOON drops off a series of second-place finishes. (2) STONEBRIDGE TONIC was second best two back from this level and this post.

Race 5

(2) HARD TO MACH had a decent wake-up call last week and now gets Brennan in the bike; he can get over the hump tonight. (1) MCRUSTY was Carlson's choice and he drops and gets post relief. (6) SIR ZIGGY'S Z TAM also drops but he faces an uphill climb tonight from this spot.

Race 6

(4) MICKEY HANOVER has taken three of his last four in convincing fashion and he can work his way to the front from this spot and take these the distance. (1) ROCKSTAR TEMPER looks for five straight since entering the Burke barn. (3) DOCTOR BUTCH sure is a steady money-earner.

Race 7

(2) FLEM N EM N was second best to the well-rated unpressured winner last week; from this inside post the Fraley trainee could be the boss. (5) STOLEN CAR doesn't like to win but he does get needed class relief. (6) SAFE HARBOR has maintained good form since entering the Julie Miller barn but he has his work cut out for him tonight from this post.

Race 8

(5) LIFE UP FRONT wilted from the pocket last week chasing good ones in the Open; prior three he hit the board with solid efforts. (2) ORILLIA JOE is up in class again off two solid efforts. (4) MCERLEAN should go evenly with these from this spot and could garner a small share.

Race 9

(3) SAPPHIRE CITY tired on the front end last week with little excuse; I'm giving this classy gelding one more try. (1) PANONGAHELA gets another crack from the rail at this level but take note he was beaten by a 64-1 shot. (7) COWBOY TERRIER went down the road for the score last week and he could be forwardly placed again.

Race 10

(5) TOBAGO CAYS has been very sharp in his last three local tries and he's got plenty of back class to call upon. (3) FOREVER JUST went evenly last week in a paceless race; three back at this level he was a good winner. (2) VERDAD draws well and has been formful for the tough Burke/Brennan combo.

Race 11

(1) FAT MANS ALLEY bounced back last week with a good effort and he should resume winning ways tonight from this inside spot. (6) FOOL ME ONCE was perfect driven to victory last out by Scott Zeron and he should be second best with Dube in the bike. (3) ATTA BOY DAN faces tougher and may be best of the rest.

Race 12

(2) OUR DRAGON KING has really done little wrong since arriving locally three starts ago; gelding deserves top billing from this spot. (6) VALIDUS DEO sizzled versus lesser to get off the seasonal schneid. (7) MICHAEL'S POWER has shown nothing in two starts for Silva but he's got a ton of class; watch the board for any clues.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Saturday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Aqueduct (5th) Iced Over, 4-1
(8th) Mighty Zealous, 7-2

Charles Town (1st) Wide Eyed Clyde, 3-1
(5th) Gowden Mile, 10-1


Churchill Downs (2nd) Tiz Lately, 7-2
(3rd) Drivin Miss Ellie, 6-1

Del Mar (3rd) Jimbaran Bay, 9-2
(6th) Megyns Gold, 9-2

Delta Downs (4th) Spicey World, 3-1
(11th) Purest Pleasure, 10-1


Golden Gate Fields (3rd) Miss Forty Niner, 4-1
(9th) Star Image, 7-2


Gulfstream Park West (4th) Concert Stage, 3-1
(6th) Overseer, 3-1


Hawthorne (1st) Blooming Flower, 8-1
(4th) Peso, 6-1


Laurel Park (2nd) Seventh Son, 6-1
(9th) Coach Fridge, 9-2


Mountaineer (4th) Trouble in Dodge, 3-1
(8th) Smooth Arrival, 6-1


Parx Racing (7th) Dreaming is Free, 9-2
(8th) Kiss Me Forever, 5-1


Penn National (1st) And a Magician, 10-1
(4th) Dance With Monarch, 8-1


Remington Park (2nd) Ten and Win, 10-1
(4th) Kip, 8-1


Retama Park (2nd) Bold Gulch, 10-1
(3rd) Jungle River, 6-1


Thistledown (6th) Temper Too, 9-2
(9th) Sing the Blues, 3-1


Turf Paradise (2nd) Jacaranda Cat, 3-1
(3rd) Wine Stock, 10-1


Woodbine (5th) Wales End, 4-1
(6th) Sweet Escape, 3-1

 

[BusterBrown]

Kelso?

Anyone happen to have his record over the past 3 weeks?

Thanks.

 

[Harun]

ben burns or jack jones full card pls