Saturday's Tip Sheet
West Virginia at Texas Christian
As of early Friday, most betting shops had TCU (4-0 straight up, 2-2 against the spread) installed as a 13.5-point favorite with a total of 67.5. On Sunday, most spots opened the Horned Frogs as 12.5-point ‘chalk,’ but the number was up to 14 and as high as 14.5 on Monday. Since Tuesday, however, the line has bounced around from 13 to 13.5. The Mountaineers were +450 on the money line (risk $100 to win $450).
West Virginia (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) has beaten up on three cupcake foes since dropping a 31-24 decision to Virginia Tech in Landover, MY., in the Sunday night opener for both schools. Dana Holgorsen’s squad has collected lopsided victories vs. East Carolina (56-20), vs. Delaware State (59-16) and at Kansas (56-34). In its lone true road game, WVU failed to cover the number at KU as a 23.5-point favorite. In fairness, we should note that WVU was favored by 21 or 21.5 for most of the week, so bettors who backed the Mountaineers early actually hit a winner.
Former Florida QB Will Grier missed 2014 to redshirt before leading the Gators to a 6-0 record as a RS freshman in ‘15. But on the Monday morning after a UF win at Missouri, it was revealed that Grier popped dirty for a banned PED and he was suspended by the NCAA for one year. Grier and his father requested a meeting with Jim McElwain after the season. How that meeting went down has been told two different ways. Grier says that McElwain was late to the meeting by two hours and that the QB never requested a guarantee that he’d be the starter when he could come back in Week 7 of 2016. Whatever the case, Grier decided to transfer and had to sit out ’16. So he had played only six games in three seasons as a college player coming into the ’17 campaign. He now has a 9-1 record as a starting QB. Grier has completed 65.3 percent of his passes for 1,374 yards with a 13/3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. His career TD-INT ratio is 23/6.
Senior RB Justin Crawford is on his way to another 1,000-yard rushing season. So far in four games, Crawford has run for 451 yards and six TDs while averaging 7.4 yards per carry. Back-up sophomore Kennedy McKoy has gained 209 yards on 31 carries, with three rushing scores and a 6.7 YPC average. Grier has 131 rushing yards and two TDs. His favorite targets are Gary Jennings and David Sills V. Jennings has hauled in 29 receptions for 438 yards and one TD, while Sills has brought down 26 catches for 396 yards and seven TDs. Marcus Simms also has nine grabs for 211 yards and three TDs.
WVU is ranked second in the nation in both total offense and scoring with a 48.8 points-per-game average.
After both members of the secondary practiced at full speed on Thursday, starting CB Mike Daniels Jr. and starting safety Kyzir White were both upgraded to ‘probable.’ Three other WVU starters are listed as ‘questionable,’ including LB David Long, OG Grant Lingafelter and safety Toyous Avery. Another key player, reserve LB Marvin Gross Jr, is also a question mark.
This is WVU’s first double-digit underdog spot in 23 games dating back to a game at Baylor midway through 2015. During Holgorsen’s seven-year tenure, WVU is 7-7 ATS as a road ‘dog.
Both teams have had two weeks to prepare for this crucial Big 12 showdown. TCU has captured wins vs. Jackson St. (63-0), at Arkansas (28-7), vs. SMU (56-36) and at Oklahoma State (44-31). The win in Stillwater two weeks ago came as a nine-point underdog, but the Horned Frogs were double-digit ‘dog for most of the week before the line move South of 10 on Saturday. Gary Patterson’s team led by 20 early in the fourth quarter, only to see that advantage sliced to 37-31 with 3:03 remaining. However, Darius Anderson’s 42-yard TD run less than 30 seconds later put the game on ice.
TCU forced four turnovers and committed merely one in the win at OSU. Kenny Hill completed 22-of-33 passes for 228 yards with one TD and one interception. Anderson rushed for 160 yards and three TDs on 26 attempts.
For the season, Hill has connected on 72.6 percent of his passes for 965 yards with a 9/3 TD-INT ratio. Anderson has run for a team-best 422 yards and six TDs while averaging 6.2 YPC. Senior RB Kyle Hicks, who ran for 1,042 yards and 12 TDs last season, has missed back-to-back games with an undisclosed injury. Hicks, who produced 128 rushing yards and one TD on 23 attempts in TCU’s first two games, has been upgraded to ‘probable’ vs. WVU.
TCU has five players who have at least nine catches and 101 receiving yards. This groud is led by Jalen Reagor, who has nine receptions for 151 yards and one TD. Desmon White has 14 catches for 151 yards and two TDs.
TCU is ranked fifth in the country in scoring with a 47.8 PPG average. The Frogs are 17th in total offense, 25th in rushing yards. As for Patterson’s defense, it is 13th in the nation at defending the run, 26th in scoring defense (18.5 PPG) and 28th in total defense.
TCU’s only injury of note is the one for Patrick Morris, who is ‘out’ with an undisclosed issue. Morris is the team’s starting center who has logged 16 career starts.
When WVU and TCU joined the Big 12 in 2012, the Horned Frogs won two of the first three games with the trio of contests decided by five combined points. They split the first two games that both went to OT, and then TCU won a 31-30 decision in Morgantown in ’14. In WVU’s last visit to Ft. Worth, TCU coasted to a 40-10 victory as a 12-point home ‘chalk.’ The Mountaineers answered last season by blasting the Frogs 34-10 as 5.5-point home favorites. The ‘under’ has cashed in each of the last three encounters.
The ‘over’ is 3-0-1 overall for WVU, cashing in its lone road assignment when the 90 combined points soared above the 70-point tally at KU. The Mountaineers have seen their games average combined scores of 74.0 PPG.
Totals have been a wash both overall (2-2) and at home (1-1) for TCU this season. The Frogs have seen their game produce average combined scores of 66.2 PPG.
Miami at Florida State
As of early Friday, most shops had Miami (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) installed as a three-point favorite with a total of 46. The Seminoles were +130 on the money line.
Miami has an extra day of rest coming into this crucial ACC showdown. Mark Rich’s team went to Durham last Friday night and emerged with a 31-6 win at Duke as a 5.5-point road favorite. The 37 combined points easily stayed ‘under’ the 55-point tally. Junior QB Malik Rosier completed 15-of-26 throws for 270 yards and two TDs with one interception. Junior RB Mark Walton ran for 51 yards on 17 attempts, but he also contributed four catches for 79 yards. Ahmmon Richards, the true sophomore WR who garnered second-team All-ACC honors last year, had three receptions for 106 yards and one TD.
Before beating Duke, UM opened the season with a 41-13 non-covering home win over Bethune-Cookman as a 46.5-point favorite. Then just like FSU, the Hurricanes had to go 21 days without playing a game due to Hurricane Irma. These long-time bitter rivals were scheduled to meet on Sept. 16 but since they shared an open date on Oct. 7, the schools agree to move the game. When UM finally returned to the field two weeks ago at home, it was clearly rusty and found itself trailing Toledo 16-10 midway through the second quarter. But Miami came alive at that point led by Walton, who produced 204 rushing yards and one TD on merely 11 carries. Rosier completed 27-of-36 passes for 333 yards and three TDs with one interception. Braxton Berrios had five catches for 105 yards and one TD.
For the season, Rosier has a 65.6 completion percentage with 820 passing yards and an 8/2 TD-INT ratio. Rosier has also rushed for 97 yards and one TD through three games. Walton has run for a team-high 403 yards and three TDs with a stellar 9.2 YPC average. Travis Homer has added 183 rushing yards and three TDs on 22 totes for an 8.3 YPC average. Berrios has 10 catches for 192 yards and three TDs.
FSU (1-2 SU, 0-2-1 ATS) started the season with a 24-7 loss to Alabama at the new Mercedes-Benz Dome in Atlanta. Making matters worse, star sophomore QB Deondre Francois was lost to a season-ending knee injury. When the ‘Noles finally got back on the field at home vs. N.C. State, they lost 27-21 as 10.5-point ‘chalk.’ N.C. St. hit a short field goal midway through the first quarter and led the rest of the way, holding three separate double-digit advantages.
In the first start of his career vs. N.C. State, true freshman QB James Blackman completed 22-of-38 passes for 278 yards and one TD without an interception. Auden Tate had nine receptions for 138 yards and one TD before leaving the game with an arm injury in the second half. Cam Akers rushed for a team-high 56 yards on 12 attempts.
Jimbo Fisher’s team was staring at a 0-3 record last week when it trailed 19-16 at Wake Forest midway through the fourth quarter. Ricky Aguayo’s 35-yard field goal with 6:20 remaining knotted the score. Then with 53 ticks left, Blackman found Tate for a 40-yard scoring strike for the game-winning score. The Demon Deacons moved the ball a tad beyond midfield and had a Hail Mary pass into the end zone on the game’s final play, but FSU star safety Derwin James batted the ball down to secure the victory. Blackman didn’t get any help from his offensive line and was pressured for 60 full minutes. He threw for 121 yards and one TD without an interception. Junior RB Jacques Patrick rushed 19 times for 120 yards and one TD. FSU produced merely 270 yards of total offense compared to 367 for Wake Forest.
FSU is ranked No. 120 of 130 FBS teams in total offense. The ‘Noles are No. 122 in rushing and No. 116 in scoring offense with a meager 18.0 PPG average.
This is only the third time FSU has been a home underdog under Fisher. The ‘Noles are 1-1 ATS in those two previous spots. Meanwhile, Miami owns a 5-1 spread record in six games as a road favorite since Richt took over in Coral Gables.
The ‘under’ is 3-0 overall for FSU, 1-0 in its only home game to date. The ‘Noles have seen their games average combined scores of 41.3 PPG.
The ‘under’ is 2-1 overall for UM, 1-0 in its lone road outing. The ‘Canes have seen their games average combined scores of 57.7 PPG.
FSU has seven in a row over UM in this storied rivalry, but the last three have been one-possession games. The last win over FSU for the ‘Canes came in 2010 when they won by a 38-34 count as six-point road underdogs. The ‘under’ has been a winner in six straight head-to-head meetings.
B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets
Georgia starting LB Natrez Patrick was arrested Thursday night for possession of marijuana. As of Friday morning, the UGA football program had not addressed the situation yet. However, the Macon Telegraph has reported that since this is Patrick second arrest while at UGA, he is looking at a four-game suspension that would likely start Saturday at Vandy. Patrick was UGA’s second-leading tackler in ’16, and he is currently tied for third on the Bulldogs in tackles with 17.
According to a late Thursday report from SECcountry.com, South Carolina is most likely going to be without three starters on the offensive line vs. Arkansas. Cory Helms and Malik Young have already been ruled ‘out,’, while Zack Bailey is ‘doubtful.’ Will Muschamp indicated to the media that he felt good about all three being back for next week’s game at Tennessee. The Vols are off this weekend and have two weeks to prepare, in addition to the revenge angle on the Gamecocks.
Notre Dame starting QB Brandon Wimbush was upgraded to ‘probable’ early Friday for Saturday’s game at UNC. However, Wimbush might not get the start in Chapel Hill. The Fighting Irish, 14 or 14.5-point favorites as of early Friday, are 2-0 as a road ‘chalk’ this year, but they’re only 7-10 ATS in 17 such spots on Brian Kelly’s watch. UNC has 13 players out with season-ending injuries. The Tar Heels are 1-2-1 ATS as home ‘dogs during Larry Fedora’s six-year run at the school.
Here are some updated Games of the Year spreads from the Westgate that may interest bettors:
USC -3.5 at Notre Dame
FSU -3 vs. Louisville
Penn St. -5 vs. Michigan
Oklahoma St. -5.5 at Texas
Ohio State -6.5 vs. Penn State
Oklahoma State -4.5 at WVU
Miami -7 vs. Virginia Tech
Clemson -11.5 at N.C. State
Oklahoma -3.5 at Oklahoma State
Washington State -3 vs. Stanford
Washington -6.5 at Stanford
Clemson -15.5 vs. FSU
Georgia Tech -1 vs. Virginia Tech
Miami -6 vs. Notre Dame
Oklahoma -10 vs. TCU
Utah -2 vs. Washington State
Wisconsin -4.5 vs. Michigan
Ohio State -4.5 at Michigan
Stanford -4 vs. Notre Dame
Washington -11.5 vs. Washington State
Kansas is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five games as a home underdog. The Jayhawks are 16.5-point home ‘dogs vs. Texas Tech, which has failed to cover the number in three straight as a road favorite.