Vegas Experts
Bonus Play
NY Mets at Philadelphia Phillies
Saturday, July 4th, 4:05 ET
Look for the joy of yesterday's win to be short-lived in the City of Brotherly Love where the Phillies are a money burning 13-18 as a favorite this season. Starter Jamie Moyer has not pitched well at home all season with a 7.15 ERA in seven starts. He'll be opposed by Fernando Nieve, who comes off his first bad outing of the year. His ERA in five starts is just 2.45 and his team has made money in the road underdog role with a 44-39 record.
Play on: NY Mets
Bonus Play
NY Mets at Philadelphia Phillies
Saturday, July 4th, 4:05 ET
Look for the joy of yesterday's win to be short-lived in the City of Brotherly Love where the Phillies are a money burning 13-18 as a favorite this season. Starter Jamie Moyer has not pitched well at home all season with a 7.15 ERA in seven starts. He'll be opposed by Fernando Nieve, who comes off his first bad outing of the year. His ERA in five starts is just 2.45 and his team has made money in the road underdog role with a 44-39 record.
Play on: NY Mets
GREG SHAKER
Bonus Play
St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds
Play: Over 9
Brad Thompson is a curious thrower in that he does not strikeout many people, he does not walk many people. He must have good control of the strikezone and when he does not have that, he can't do doodly squat. He has not been squating too well of late and because of that, his last 3 games have not been very good. In those contests, he has allowed 13 runs and 4 Dingers have gone over the boards. All 3 of these games went OVER the mark, despite the fact that in two of those games the Cardinals scored ZERO Runs. I don't exactly know what is going on with him but I do know he ain't getting things done. There is not much you can say about Micah Owings except to say that he is a different thrower everytime he steps onto the mound. This year has been an adventure for him and the one thing that I have noticed is that his K's are down from previous years. Ball movement has to be the reason and the lack of it means that hitters have enjoyed success with connecting on the long ball. His last 10 thrown has seen 8 of those large hits and facing the Cards today could mean more of that. I have to believe that one of these guys is not going to get the job done today in what is a hitter's friend park. That gives us a jumpstart on accomplishing our goal for this early afternoon contest. These teams have played OVER the last 9 of 12 they have played and that does include 5-0 OVER last 5 at this park. The Ump for today's matchup, Cedarstrom, is mostly considered neutral but his games have managed 10 runs this year. We have to keep in mind that this is a day game, and those games are higher scoring in every park due to the hitter's ability to see the ball better. We also have the added advantage of Owings bringing his bat to the plate. This line is dropping and for the life of me, I don't know why. It is available at some books at 9.5 and +105 but I like the 9 as it is a key number, so buy down if needed.
Bonus Play
St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds
Play: Over 9
Brad Thompson is a curious thrower in that he does not strikeout many people, he does not walk many people. He must have good control of the strikezone and when he does not have that, he can't do doodly squat. He has not been squating too well of late and because of that, his last 3 games have not been very good. In those contests, he has allowed 13 runs and 4 Dingers have gone over the boards. All 3 of these games went OVER the mark, despite the fact that in two of those games the Cardinals scored ZERO Runs. I don't exactly know what is going on with him but I do know he ain't getting things done. There is not much you can say about Micah Owings except to say that he is a different thrower everytime he steps onto the mound. This year has been an adventure for him and the one thing that I have noticed is that his K's are down from previous years. Ball movement has to be the reason and the lack of it means that hitters have enjoyed success with connecting on the long ball. His last 10 thrown has seen 8 of those large hits and facing the Cards today could mean more of that. I have to believe that one of these guys is not going to get the job done today in what is a hitter's friend park. That gives us a jumpstart on accomplishing our goal for this early afternoon contest. These teams have played OVER the last 9 of 12 they have played and that does include 5-0 OVER last 5 at this park. The Ump for today's matchup, Cedarstrom, is mostly considered neutral but his games have managed 10 runs this year. We have to keep in mind that this is a day game, and those games are higher scoring in every park due to the hitter's ability to see the ball better. We also have the added advantage of Owings bringing his bat to the plate. This line is dropping and for the life of me, I don't know why. It is available at some books at 9.5 and +105 but I like the 9 as it is a key number, so buy down if needed.
Michael Cannon
Bonus Play
Toronto -120 at NY YANKEES
A nice 5? free winner on the Braves last night!
Let’s make it two free winners in a row with the Blue Jays this afternoon over the Yankees.
Roy Halladay gets the start today and the Toronto ace has had great success against the Yankees in his career. The right-hander has won six straight against the Pinstripers and is 16-5 with a 2.79 ERA in 33 lifetime appearances against them.
Halladay s 10-2 with a 2.56 ERA on the year and has a 1.91 ERA and three complete games in winning his last six starts against New York.
The Yankees will counter with Chien-Ming Wang, who is 1-6 with a 10.06 ERA on the year. The right-hander has pitched better in his last three outings, but still hasn’t regained the stamina or form to match Halladay pitch-for-pitch today.
Take the Blue Jays as they grab the road win.
3? TORONTO
Bonus Play
Toronto -120 at NY YANKEES
A nice 5? free winner on the Braves last night!
Let’s make it two free winners in a row with the Blue Jays this afternoon over the Yankees.
Roy Halladay gets the start today and the Toronto ace has had great success against the Yankees in his career. The right-hander has won six straight against the Pinstripers and is 16-5 with a 2.79 ERA in 33 lifetime appearances against them.
Halladay s 10-2 with a 2.56 ERA on the year and has a 1.91 ERA and three complete games in winning his last six starts against New York.
The Yankees will counter with Chien-Ming Wang, who is 1-6 with a 10.06 ERA on the year. The right-hander has pitched better in his last three outings, but still hasn’t regained the stamina or form to match Halladay pitch-for-pitch today.
Take the Blue Jays as they grab the road win.
3? TORONTO
Drew Gordon
Bonus Play
Pittsburgh at FLORIDA -135
I'm now on a 21-10 roll with the plays I'm giving away, incl. the Rockies over the D-Backs 5-0 Friday! For tonight's complimentary play, we're looking at the Pittsburgh/Florida match-up.
At first glance, its tempting to back southpaw Zack Duke, at this price, in this spot, but that would be a mistake. In this battle of southpaws, despite the fact Duke has the better numbers overall, the Marlins Andrew Miller has been very effective at home, and it'll show tonight...
Speaking of Miller, he's 2-0 with a solid 3.11 ERA at Land Shark Stadium this season, including an impressive effort against Baltimore in his last home start, allowing 1 run on just 1 hit over 7 innings June 23rd! The home start previous to that one was a quality effort against the Cardinals offense, so don't tell me he can't handle the Pirates in this one!
Not only are the Fish 11-5 against lefty starters at home, they're 9-3 against them under the lights! Marlins hit lefties well especially well at Land Shark, averaging a hearty 5.6 runs per game, batting .270, in that spot this season. Compare that to a Pirates team that averages 4.2 runs per game, batting .259 against lefties on the road, and you've got all the makings of a mismatch.
Bottom line, while there's no questioning Duke's effectiveness this season, Miller has been just as good when pitching in front of the home fans. Factor in a strong offensive edge, and a slight, but solid bullpen edge, and the only play here is the Fish. Despite yesterday's loss, let's not forget the Marlins are 8-1 in their last 9 home games AND 13-3 in their last 16 as a favorite! In the end, look for the Marlins to take care of business in this one!
Take Florida behind Miller over Pittsburgh and Duke in this MLB match up.
2? FLORIDA
Bonus Play
Pittsburgh at FLORIDA -135
I'm now on a 21-10 roll with the plays I'm giving away, incl. the Rockies over the D-Backs 5-0 Friday! For tonight's complimentary play, we're looking at the Pittsburgh/Florida match-up.
At first glance, its tempting to back southpaw Zack Duke, at this price, in this spot, but that would be a mistake. In this battle of southpaws, despite the fact Duke has the better numbers overall, the Marlins Andrew Miller has been very effective at home, and it'll show tonight...
Speaking of Miller, he's 2-0 with a solid 3.11 ERA at Land Shark Stadium this season, including an impressive effort against Baltimore in his last home start, allowing 1 run on just 1 hit over 7 innings June 23rd! The home start previous to that one was a quality effort against the Cardinals offense, so don't tell me he can't handle the Pirates in this one!
Not only are the Fish 11-5 against lefty starters at home, they're 9-3 against them under the lights! Marlins hit lefties well especially well at Land Shark, averaging a hearty 5.6 runs per game, batting .270, in that spot this season. Compare that to a Pirates team that averages 4.2 runs per game, batting .259 against lefties on the road, and you've got all the makings of a mismatch.
Bottom line, while there's no questioning Duke's effectiveness this season, Miller has been just as good when pitching in front of the home fans. Factor in a strong offensive edge, and a slight, but solid bullpen edge, and the only play here is the Fish. Despite yesterday's loss, let's not forget the Marlins are 8-1 in their last 9 home games AND 13-3 in their last 16 as a favorite! In the end, look for the Marlins to take care of business in this one!
Take Florida behind Miller over Pittsburgh and Duke in this MLB match up.
2? FLORIDA
The Spread
COMP.
Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees, 1:05PM ET
Toronto is 6-13 SU in its last 19 games on the road
Toronto is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
NY Yankees are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games when playing Toronto
NY Yankees are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against Toronto
Pick: NY Yankees
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals, 1:10PM ET
Chi White Sox are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing Kansas City
Chi White Sox are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Kansas City is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games at home
Kansas City is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Pick: Chicago
St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds, 1:10PM ET
St. Louis is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
Cincinnati is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Pick: St. Louis
COMP.
Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees, 1:05PM ET
Toronto is 6-13 SU in its last 19 games on the road
Toronto is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
NY Yankees are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games when playing Toronto
NY Yankees are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against Toronto
Pick: NY Yankees
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals, 1:10PM ET
Chi White Sox are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing Kansas City
Chi White Sox are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Kansas City is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games at home
Kansas City is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Pick: Chicago
St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds, 1:10PM ET
St. Louis is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
Cincinnati is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Pick: St. Louis
Jr Tips
Bonus Play
TAMPA BAY vs. TEXAS
Texas(43-35) looks for their fourth straight win agaist Tampa Bay (44-37). The Rangers moved back into a tie for first place in the AL West after winning 3-1 on Friday. The Rays have lost two straight as their high-powered offense managed a season-low three hits Friday. Tampa Bay starts rookie David Price (2-2, 3.93 ERA) who looks for his first consecutive win. He yielded one run and two hits over 6 1/3 innings Sunday in a 5-2 victory over Florida. The left-hander issued five walks to bring his season total to 25 over 36 2/3 innings. For Tampa, Derek Holland (1-5, 6.20) will make his seventh major league start as he fell to 0-4 with a 6.27 ERA in his first six games after giving up season highs of seven runs and 13 hits over 5 2/3 innings last Saturday in a 7-3 loss to San Diego.The left-hander has posted an 8.62 ERA and failed to pitch past the sixth inning in his three home starts this year. He has never faced Tampa Bay. With a Rookie on the mound who has never won back to back games and a starter who hasn"t pitched past the 6th inning all year and giving up over 8 runs at home, there will be alot a runs on the board as the last team that scores will probaly win.
TAKE OVER 10 1/2
Bonus Play
TAMPA BAY vs. TEXAS
Texas(43-35) looks for their fourth straight win agaist Tampa Bay (44-37). The Rangers moved back into a tie for first place in the AL West after winning 3-1 on Friday. The Rays have lost two straight as their high-powered offense managed a season-low three hits Friday. Tampa Bay starts rookie David Price (2-2, 3.93 ERA) who looks for his first consecutive win. He yielded one run and two hits over 6 1/3 innings Sunday in a 5-2 victory over Florida. The left-hander issued five walks to bring his season total to 25 over 36 2/3 innings. For Tampa, Derek Holland (1-5, 6.20) will make his seventh major league start as he fell to 0-4 with a 6.27 ERA in his first six games after giving up season highs of seven runs and 13 hits over 5 2/3 innings last Saturday in a 7-3 loss to San Diego.The left-hander has posted an 8.62 ERA and failed to pitch past the sixth inning in his three home starts this year. He has never faced Tampa Bay. With a Rookie on the mound who has never won back to back games and a starter who hasn"t pitched past the 6th inning all year and giving up over 8 runs at home, there will be alot a runs on the board as the last team that scores will probaly win.
TAKE OVER 10 1/2
Matt Fargo
Bonus Play
Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals
Prediction: Washington Nationals
This could very well be the matchup that ends Washingtons four-game losing streak and Atlantas four-game winning streak. We all know the Nationals are the worst team in baseball but over 27 percent of their wins have come when John Lannan is on the hill. He put together another quality start in his last outing which was his fifth straight. Tommy Hanson has been superb for the Braves and has yet to lose and that is where the value comes into play. The Braves are just 10-24 in their last 34 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150 and they are only 2-8 in the last 10 meetings in Washington.
3* Washington Nationals
Bonus Play
Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals
Prediction: Washington Nationals
This could very well be the matchup that ends Washingtons four-game losing streak and Atlantas four-game winning streak. We all know the Nationals are the worst team in baseball but over 27 percent of their wins have come when John Lannan is on the hill. He put together another quality start in his last outing which was his fifth straight. Tommy Hanson has been superb for the Braves and has yet to lose and that is where the value comes into play. The Braves are just 10-24 in their last 34 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150 and they are only 2-8 in the last 10 meetings in Washington.
3* Washington Nationals
Freddy Wills
Bonus Play
Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Under 8.5
This line is crazy opening with -122 and before long I think the Nationals are going to be favorites here as they are now +102.. I'm not too concerned with who is favorites because I love the under in this situation especially when the line moves the other way it means to me they are expecting a quality start out of Lannan. Lannan should have a quality start he had 7 innings of shutout ball vs. the Braves at home already this year and in his last 5 starts he owns a 2.23ERA. He is on 5 days rest here at home where he has a 2.02ERA. The under 10-2 in Lannan's last 12 as a dog and 7-1 l8 overall. Atlanta without three key guys in the lineup here Kelly Johnson (6-15 vs. Lannan) McClouth, and now McCann getting the day off for rest. Braves won't throw just anyone up there Tommy Hanson has three straight starts with 0ER vs. solid teams in Boston, Yankees and the REds. He will face the 18th ranked offense on Independence day in what should be a very good pitcher's duel I think.
Take Braves Under 8.5 runs +100
Bonus Play
Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Under 8.5
This line is crazy opening with -122 and before long I think the Nationals are going to be favorites here as they are now +102.. I'm not too concerned with who is favorites because I love the under in this situation especially when the line moves the other way it means to me they are expecting a quality start out of Lannan. Lannan should have a quality start he had 7 innings of shutout ball vs. the Braves at home already this year and in his last 5 starts he owns a 2.23ERA. He is on 5 days rest here at home where he has a 2.02ERA. The under 10-2 in Lannan's last 12 as a dog and 7-1 l8 overall. Atlanta without three key guys in the lineup here Kelly Johnson (6-15 vs. Lannan) McClouth, and now McCann getting the day off for rest. Braves won't throw just anyone up there Tommy Hanson has three straight starts with 0ER vs. solid teams in Boston, Yankees and the REds. He will face the 18th ranked offense on Independence day in what should be a very good pitcher's duel I think.
Take Braves Under 8.5 runs +100
Wunderdog
Bonus Play
Houston Astros vs. San Francisco Giants
Total 7 un+100
Tim Lincecum is rapidly positioning himself as one of the top starters in baseball. He is off an impressive 18-4 season and enters this one at 8-2. When you consider the fact that he has allowed just nine earned runs in his last eight starts, it becomes clear he has some extra special stuff. He has also allowed Houston just six total runs in his last four starts against them. Russ Ortiz has been no slouch either as he has allowed just 19 earned runs in his eight starts on the season and in no game has he allowed more than three. Houston has now played to a 17-5 mark to the under in their last 22 games posted as a dog. The Giants have under madness as well as they are now 25-11-3 to the under vs teams with a losing record.
Runs certainly look to be hard to come by here and I'll back the UNDER in this one.
Bonus Play
Houston Astros vs. San Francisco Giants
Total 7 un+100
Tim Lincecum is rapidly positioning himself as one of the top starters in baseball. He is off an impressive 18-4 season and enters this one at 8-2. When you consider the fact that he has allowed just nine earned runs in his last eight starts, it becomes clear he has some extra special stuff. He has also allowed Houston just six total runs in his last four starts against them. Russ Ortiz has been no slouch either as he has allowed just 19 earned runs in his eight starts on the season and in no game has he allowed more than three. Houston has now played to a 17-5 mark to the under in their last 22 games posted as a dog. The Giants have under madness as well as they are now 25-11-3 to the under vs teams with a losing record.
Runs certainly look to be hard to come by here and I'll back the UNDER in this one.
Gamehunter
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Under Atl/wash 1st 5 Inns 4.5 Runs (+105) (1.5 Units)
Washington +108 (1.5 Units)
Cincinnati -108 (1.75 Units)
Milwaukee +152 (1.5 Units)
Mets +137 (1.5 Units)
Houston +189 (1.25 Units)
Under Tor/yankees 9 Runs (-102) (2.5 Units)
Under White Sox/kc 8.5 Runs (-112) (1.5 Units)
Oakland +112 (1.5 Units)
Texas +122 (1.5 Units)
Over Balt/angels 10.5 Runs (+102) (1.25 Units)
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Under Atl/wash 1st 5 Inns 4.5 Runs (+105) (1.5 Units)
Washington +108 (1.5 Units)
Cincinnati -108 (1.75 Units)
Milwaukee +152 (1.5 Units)
Mets +137 (1.5 Units)
Houston +189 (1.25 Units)
Under Tor/yankees 9 Runs (-102) (2.5 Units)
Under White Sox/kc 8.5 Runs (-112) (1.5 Units)
Oakland +112 (1.5 Units)
Texas +122 (1.5 Units)
Over Balt/angels 10.5 Runs (+102) (1.25 Units)
Gamehunter
Under Atl/wash 1st 5 Inns 4.5 Runs (+105) (1.5 Units)
Washington +108 (1.5 Units)
Cincinnati -108 (1.75 Units)
Milwaukee +152 (1.5 Units)
Mets +137 (1.5 Units)
Houston +189 (1.25 Units)
Under Tor/yankees 9 Runs (-102) (2.5 Units)
Under White Sox/kc 8.5 Runs (-112) (1.5 Units)
Oakland +112 (1.5 Units)
Texas +122 (1.5 Units)
Over Balt/angels 10.5 Runs (+102) (1.25 Units)
Under Atl/wash 1st 5 Inns 4.5 Runs (+105) (1.5 Units)
Washington +108 (1.5 Units)
Cincinnati -108 (1.75 Units)
Milwaukee +152 (1.5 Units)
Mets +137 (1.5 Units)
Houston +189 (1.25 Units)
Under Tor/yankees 9 Runs (-102) (2.5 Units)
Under White Sox/kc 8.5 Runs (-112) (1.5 Units)
Oakland +112 (1.5 Units)
Texas +122 (1.5 Units)
Over Balt/angels 10.5 Runs (+102) (1.25 Units)
Rob Homyak
Free Pick FLA (-141) vs PIT
Analysis: Rob Homyak MLB Freebie + 5* Home Run of the Week
Rob delivered last night winning with St. Louis and free pick winner on the Atlanta Braves. Join Rob for his 5* Home Run of the Week which is supported by his expert analysis. Don't miss out on another easy winner tonight. Rob Homyak has 2 documented handicapping championships in baseball.
Pittsburgh Pirates (37-43) at Florida Marlins (41-40), 6:10 p.m.
Probable Starting Pitchers: Pittsburgh - Zach Duke (8-6, 3.13) Florida - Andrew Miller (2-4, 4.45)
5 Units on Florida Marlins
The Pirates snapped a two-game losing skid by defeating the Marlins 7-4 on Friday, as +150 underdogs. That game's nine runs made it OVER the posted over/under (8.5).
Ramon Vazquez belted a two-run homer for the Pirates. Charlie Morton tossed a one-hit shutout through six innings to earn the win.
John Baker homered and drove in the three runs for the Marlins, who were -170 favorites. Chris Volstad surrendered four runs off three hits in just three innings on the mound.
Pittsburgh has scored 1 run or less a major league-high 20 times and has managed just 5 total runs in Duke's six losses.
Duke has struggled against the Marlins going 0-2 with a 5.68 ERA in 4 starts.
FLORIDA is 19-10 (+10.4 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters this season.
FLORIDA is 121-112 (+21.1 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
Pirates are 1-5 in Dukes last 6 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.
Pirates are 3-19 in Dukes last 22 starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150.
Marlins are 7-0 in their last 7 games as a favorite of -110 to -150.
Marlins are 4-0 in Millers last 4 starts as a home favorite.
Marlins are 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
Head to Head
Pirates are 0-4 in Dukes last 4 starts vs. Marlins.
Umpire Trends - Tim Tschida
Marlins are 4-10 in their last 14 games with Tschida behind home plate.
Pirates are 3-10 in their last 13 games with Tschida behind home plate.
Pirates are 0-4 in their last 4 Saturday games with Tschida behind home plate.
Free Pick FLA (-141) vs PIT
Analysis: Rob Homyak MLB Freebie + 5* Home Run of the Week
Rob delivered last night winning with St. Louis and free pick winner on the Atlanta Braves. Join Rob for his 5* Home Run of the Week which is supported by his expert analysis. Don't miss out on another easy winner tonight. Rob Homyak has 2 documented handicapping championships in baseball.
Pittsburgh Pirates (37-43) at Florida Marlins (41-40), 6:10 p.m.
Probable Starting Pitchers: Pittsburgh - Zach Duke (8-6, 3.13) Florida - Andrew Miller (2-4, 4.45)
5 Units on Florida Marlins
The Pirates snapped a two-game losing skid by defeating the Marlins 7-4 on Friday, as +150 underdogs. That game's nine runs made it OVER the posted over/under (8.5).
Ramon Vazquez belted a two-run homer for the Pirates. Charlie Morton tossed a one-hit shutout through six innings to earn the win.
John Baker homered and drove in the three runs for the Marlins, who were -170 favorites. Chris Volstad surrendered four runs off three hits in just three innings on the mound.
Pittsburgh has scored 1 run or less a major league-high 20 times and has managed just 5 total runs in Duke's six losses.
Duke has struggled against the Marlins going 0-2 with a 5.68 ERA in 4 starts.
FLORIDA is 19-10 (+10.4 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters this season.
FLORIDA is 121-112 (+21.1 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
Pirates are 1-5 in Dukes last 6 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.
Pirates are 3-19 in Dukes last 22 starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150.
Marlins are 7-0 in their last 7 games as a favorite of -110 to -150.
Marlins are 4-0 in Millers last 4 starts as a home favorite.
Marlins are 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
Head to Head
Pirates are 0-4 in Dukes last 4 starts vs. Marlins.
Umpire Trends - Tim Tschida
Marlins are 4-10 in their last 14 games with Tschida behind home plate.
Pirates are 3-10 in their last 13 games with Tschida behind home plate.
Pirates are 0-4 in their last 4 Saturday games with Tschida behind home plate.
