EZWINNER'S FREE SELECTION
Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Kansas City Royals
(971) St. Louis Cardinals -$165
(Listing Carpenter and Bannister)
The Cardinals ace starting pitcher Chris Carpenter
has recaptured his Cy Young form. I look for him to
shut down the struggling Royals. Kansas City's starting
pitcher Brian Bannister usually starts the game strong,
but falls apart after five innings. I look for the Cardinals
to get to him the third time through the batting order.
Cardinals win.
2009 Free Selections Record 87-78 (52.7%)
Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Kansas City Royals
(971) St. Louis Cardinals -$165
(Listing Carpenter and Bannister)
The Cardinals ace starting pitcher Chris Carpenter
has recaptured his Cy Young form. I look for him to
shut down the struggling Royals. Kansas City's starting
pitcher Brian Bannister usually starts the game strong,
but falls apart after five innings. I look for the Cardinals
to get to him the third time through the batting order.
Cardinals win.
2009 Free Selections Record 87-78 (52.7%)
IndianCowboy Bonus Play
Take Under 9.5 between the Toronto Bluejays @ Washington Nationals
I actually predicted the public likely getting buried as they took the Bluejays to a tune of 73% on the road at Washington. But, rather than having the gonads to take Washington, I took the Under yesterday which is an indirect play on them. Today, not much is different as 70% continue to ride the Jays on the road at Washington. And, Vegas has only put Toronto as a slight favorite, simply because Washington is expected to do well today as well with Detwiler on the mound. Detwiler has pitched in 5 straight Unders thus far this year and comes off giving up 4 runs in 6 innings at Tampa Bay. Although he has not picked up a win yet this season, he has quality stuff and I wouldn't be surprised if he has a big game at home today. On top of that, Cecil is a Maryland native as he comes around to pitch at his old stomping ground today. He was born in Maryland and when to the University of Maryland so he should have plenty of family and friends at the game today. Plus, he gave up 8 runs in in less than 5 innings at Beantown in his last game and the Jays ended up losing that game 3-8. I look for both pitchers to pitch well today and this game likely to go Under. The Under is 5-1 for the Jays when they face a righty on the road with this total and the Under is 6-0 for the Nats as a home Underdog of late.
Take Under 9.5 between the Toronto Bluejays @ Washington Nationals
I actually predicted the public likely getting buried as they took the Bluejays to a tune of 73% on the road at Washington. But, rather than having the gonads to take Washington, I took the Under yesterday which is an indirect play on them. Today, not much is different as 70% continue to ride the Jays on the road at Washington. And, Vegas has only put Toronto as a slight favorite, simply because Washington is expected to do well today as well with Detwiler on the mound. Detwiler has pitched in 5 straight Unders thus far this year and comes off giving up 4 runs in 6 innings at Tampa Bay. Although he has not picked up a win yet this season, he has quality stuff and I wouldn't be surprised if he has a big game at home today. On top of that, Cecil is a Maryland native as he comes around to pitch at his old stomping ground today. He was born in Maryland and when to the University of Maryland so he should have plenty of family and friends at the game today. Plus, he gave up 8 runs in in less than 5 innings at Beantown in his last game and the Jays ended up losing that game 3-8. I look for both pitchers to pitch well today and this game likely to go Under. The Under is 5-1 for the Jays when they face a righty on the road with this total and the Under is 6-0 for the Nats as a home Underdog of late.
Jr Tips
Bonus Play
LA DODGERS vs. LA ANGELS
Brothers Jeff and Jered Weaver will face off for the first time, and coming off his first career shutout, Jered will be looking to give thet Angels to an eighth straight victory. Jeff Weaver (3-1, 3.72 ERA) will start in place of the injured Eric Milton and younger brother Jered Weaver (7-2, 2.08) has won his last four starts, allowing four total runs and striking out 29 in 30 innings. He recorded a 6-0 win over San Diego on Sunday. Jered has been very effective in his career against the Dodgers, going 3-1 with a 1.59 ERA in five starts. Jeff's recent history against the Angels has amounted to an 0-3 record with a 9.72 ERA. The Dodgers (44-24) are averaging just over three runs in the last 20 games and have dropped 17 of their last 21 at Angel Stadum. This 1st time brother matchup should make for good pitchers dual today.
TAKE UNDER 8 1/2 runs
Bonus Play
LA DODGERS vs. LA ANGELS
Brothers Jeff and Jered Weaver will face off for the first time, and coming off his first career shutout, Jered will be looking to give thet Angels to an eighth straight victory. Jeff Weaver (3-1, 3.72 ERA) will start in place of the injured Eric Milton and younger brother Jered Weaver (7-2, 2.08) has won his last four starts, allowing four total runs and striking out 29 in 30 innings. He recorded a 6-0 win over San Diego on Sunday. Jered has been very effective in his career against the Dodgers, going 3-1 with a 1.59 ERA in five starts. Jeff's recent history against the Angels has amounted to an 0-3 record with a 9.72 ERA. The Dodgers (44-24) are averaging just over three runs in the last 20 games and have dropped 17 of their last 21 at Angel Stadum. This 1st time brother matchup should make for good pitchers dual today.
TAKE UNDER 8 1/2 runs
Stephen Nover
Bonus Play
Orioles +$1.30 at Phillies
The Phillies aren't playing well enough to be this big of a favorite especially with young and largely untested J.A. Happ on the mound.
How bad has it been lately for the Phillies? They have lost their last four games by a total of 17 runs. They are 1-6 during their current home-stand with five of the defeats being by three runs or more. They have been terrible at home all season as evidenced by a 13-20 mark.
The Red Sox exposed Happ for the mediocre stuff he throws, scoring five runs on seven hits and six walks off him in just 5 2/3 innings. Happ surrendered three homers and threw 108 pitches. His 3.53 ERA is misleading because he has a high strand rate, which is partially due to his bullpen bailing him out.
Orioles starter Brad Bergesen is another young pitcher. He's 4-2 with a 3.79 ERA. But his ERA is misleading, too, except the opposite way. Bergesen is among the best in the league in ground ball-to fly ball ratio. Bergesen also has excellent control, walking 17 in 71 1/3 innings. He's 3-0 with a 1.69 ERA in his last four starts.
Bergesen is a sinker ball pitcher, the type of pitcher the Phillies can have trouble with especially missing Raul Ibanez.
Sure the Phillies are a better team than Baltimore. But right now the Phillies are at low ebb, have key injuries and are going against a hot, under-the-radar pitcher setting up a nice overlay in this spot.
Bonus Play
Orioles +$1.30 at Phillies
The Phillies aren't playing well enough to be this big of a favorite especially with young and largely untested J.A. Happ on the mound.
How bad has it been lately for the Phillies? They have lost their last four games by a total of 17 runs. They are 1-6 during their current home-stand with five of the defeats being by three runs or more. They have been terrible at home all season as evidenced by a 13-20 mark.
The Red Sox exposed Happ for the mediocre stuff he throws, scoring five runs on seven hits and six walks off him in just 5 2/3 innings. Happ surrendered three homers and threw 108 pitches. His 3.53 ERA is misleading because he has a high strand rate, which is partially due to his bullpen bailing him out.
Orioles starter Brad Bergesen is another young pitcher. He's 4-2 with a 3.79 ERA. But his ERA is misleading, too, except the opposite way. Bergesen is among the best in the league in ground ball-to fly ball ratio. Bergesen also has excellent control, walking 17 in 71 1/3 innings. He's 3-0 with a 1.69 ERA in his last four starts.
Bergesen is a sinker ball pitcher, the type of pitcher the Phillies can have trouble with especially missing Raul Ibanez.
Sure the Phillies are a better team than Baltimore. But right now the Phillies are at low ebb, have key injuries and are going against a hot, under-the-radar pitcher setting up a nice overlay in this spot.
craig davis
saturday's lineup
40 dime ---- blue jays (with cecil and detwiler as listed pitchers)
10 dime ---- giants (with cain) -1 1/2 run line over rangers (with holland)
toronto blue jays (with cecil and detwiler as listed pitchers) --- this one was easy to spot. As many of you know, i'm not a big fan of pitchers who go back and forth from the bullpen to the rotation, and detwiler (who i've played against in the past for this very same reason) is a classic poster child. The nationals have been desperate for pitching since the beginning of the year... They've had trouble nailing down a closer, the bullpen has been a mess, and other than a few, spotty, solid starts from guys like john lannan and jordan zimmerman, the rotation is a joke. Ross detwiler doesn't help.
Since being called to the rotation, detwiler has allowed 19 earned runs in 32 innings of work (5.34 era), but has been even worse in his last four starts, failing to last past the 6th inning in any start while posting a 6.21 era in those four games. He's also had some troubles with his control recently, walking five batters in his last game and three the game before that. He also failed to strike out a batter vs. Tampa bay and the nationals lost another one of his starts, 5-4. Remember, detwiler hasn't earned a win in six starts for the nationals and i don't see that streak ending tonight.
For toronto, they send lefty brett cecil to the hill. He started 2009 hot and i have seen enough of his games to know what he's capable of. After allowing 8 ers to the boston red sox back on may 20th, the blue jays panicked and sent him back down to the minors. Desperate again, they have recalled him to start tonight against washington. If you look at his first three starts of the season, he allowed just four earned runs 20 innings of work, posting two wins and a no decision. I backed cecil as a big 40-dime winner over oakland in his second start of the season and it came through as toronto dominated their way to a 5-0 win. Cecil has all the physical tools to get the job done tonight, it's going to come down to a matter of how serious he is mentally. In an attempt to earn his job back for good, i believe you will see the best cecil has to offer.
Toronto may have only scored one run last night vs. Jordan zimmerman, but they clearly have the offense to score 6 or 7 runs easily, and they may get there by the 5th inning against detwiler. Prior to last night's game, the jays scored 8, 7, and 8 runs for a three-game sweep of the phillies in philadelphia... Beating hamels, blanton and moyer. That's an impressive resume any way you slice it, and if he can't beat ross detwiler tonight he probably doesn't deserve to be in the majors right now.
The blue jays offense absolutely tatooes lefties, hitting .297 for the season against southpaws, including 22 home runs and an ops of .832. They've beaten good lefties in the past (guys like cole hamels and jon lester) and there's no reason to think they can't do it again. Washington, on the other hand, does not hit lefties well, batting just .242 against them for the season. With cecil out to win a permanent job, i believe the washington bats are in trouble. Bottom line is that toronto's offense is better and they have the clear advantage on the hill. Take the blue jays as your top play of the day.
Sf giants (with cain) -1 1/2 run line over the rangers (with holland) --- i will continue to back matt cain until he lets me down. If i've counted correctly, i have backed him three consecutive times and he's delivered three consecutive wins. In fact, i could have backed him 8 straight times and come out on top... Those are pretty good numbers. His overall record is 9-1 and since early in the season he's been one of the best pitchers in baseball. In fact, i'd argue that he, and not tim lincecum, is the ace of this staff this year. Cain hasn't allowed more than one earned run in five of his last six starts, and when he starts at home he's even better, not to mention the fact he faces an offense today that's hitting .266 against righties. The giants are 22-12 at home and face a team that has a .500 record on the road and a pitcher that was once in the bullpen and now finds himself in the rotation. Remember, that's a "no no". Derek holland has allowed 10 earned runs in his last three games (11 innings) and just doesn't seem to have the stuff to be a starter... At least not yet. This one will be a laugher as the giants win by at least four today.
Good luck !!
Paid and confirmed by me@):toast:
thanks ironhorse
