Jeff Benton
Cleveland at CHI. CUBS
For Saturday’s Bonus Play, we’ll back the Cubs on the run line -1½ runs against the Indians.
Usually, I downplay momentum in baseball, simply because the season is so long and starting pitching is such a big factor day in and day out. But this is one case where I can’t ignore momentum. First off the Cubs are coming off back-to-back miraculous – possibly season-changing – victories. On Friday, they went to the bottom of the eighth inning trailing the White Sox 5-1, only to rally for a 6-5 walk-off win. Then yesterday, Chicago fell behind the Indians 7-0 after four innings and trailed 7-2 in the bottom of the eighth, only to come back again to tie the game in the ninth and win it 8-7 in the 10th, beating up on Cleveland’s god-awful relief staff.
In fact, yesterday marked the second time this week that Cleveland has squandered a huge lead in the latter innings. Back on Monday, the Indians’ bullpen was handed a 12-7 lead in the seventh inning at home against the Brewers, but that lead vanished when Milwaukee scored a run in the seventh and six in the eighth to steal a 14-12 victory.
Cleveland has now dropped four straight games, all to N.L. Central squads, allowing a whopping 38 runs in the process (the majority given up by the relievers).
As for this pitching matchup, Chicago has a huge edge. Ted Lilly is 7-4 with a 2.94 ERA overall and 4-1 with a 1.48 ERA at home, with the Cubs winning five of his six home starts. In his last four trips to the bump, Lilly has surrendered a total of four earned runs in 28 1/3 innings (1.27 ERA) with a 22-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Meanwhile, Cleveland is handing the ball to journeyman right-hander Toma Ohka, who made his first start in two years a week ago and pitched very well against the Cardinals. However, Ohka doesn’t figure to go much longer than six innings in this contest, which, of course, brings the crappy Indians bullpen – which now has more blown saves (13) than saves (12) – back into play.
Throw in the fact that the Cubs are 19-7 in Lilly’s last 26 starts and 4-0 in his last four interleague outings, while the Tribe have now dropped 11 of their last 14 in National League parks, and this has blowout written all over it. Lay the run line with Chicago.
4? CUBS -1½