Saturday 02/14/04 (YTD: 50-56-1 -11.19 units/2-1 last night)

8-5 Week To Date

This will be a long day today folks so let's start with at least one noon tip:

Seton Hall/Notre Dame UNDER 139
This game is off the board at most places and I got this line at Pinny. ND has gone under in 6 of 7 at home this year and the Hall are 0-2 O/U on the road. The Hall will play defense but they also shoot poorly from the line so combine the two and we should see a low scoring affair.

That's one....I'll be adding all day. Good luck!

sb

 

Michigan State -13
Spartans are 7-10 ATS but 5-4 ATS at home vs Gophers 5-15 ATS/2-7 ATS on the road. Sparty shoots better from the field (49.2 to 43.8 pct), 3 point range (40 to 32.6 pct) and the free throw line (77 to 70 pct). Spartans survived at Minnesota a couple of weeks ago so they won't take the Gophers for granted. I'm expecting a big day after getting destroyed by Illinois. RPI for MSU .5933 (41st) vs Minny .4967 (161st) and Massey Schedule rating 15th for MSU vs 89th for Minny. I have to like Big Green today.

Davidson -3 vs Ga Southern
Revenge game for Davidson and they just play so much better at home than on the road. I think this stretch for Ga Sou (at Davidson and then at Coll Charleston) will be a little too tough for them to sweep through. The Wildcats only lost by 2 at Ga Sou on 1/28 and they should win this one by a few buckets.

Kentucky/Georgia UNDER 125.5
I just can't ignore the anemic offenses/great defenses of both teams. I realize both teams are getting scoring guards back today but it's not like the under trend is a recent trend here. KY 1-6 O/U this season on the road and 3-11 O/U overall while GA 0-6 O/U on all games with total lines. The line for this one at Kentucky was 16 points higher but they didn't even hit the 125.5 total of today (and that was with Fitch and Wright in the game for both teams). I'm going to stick with the pattern and play it under.


Arkansas-LR -14 -115 vs FIU
This shouldn't even be close today. Ark-LR 6-7-1 ATS but 3-1-1 ATS at home. FIU an awful 3-12 ATS and 2-6 ATS on the road. I don't need to tell you that Ark-LR dominates all statistical categories here (offense, defense, 3 point shooting, free throw shooting and rebounding). Trojans are also 6-3 ATS L9 and coming off a double OT loss at New Orleans I'm sure they'll be happy to make up for. FIU coming off a win at home against Florida Gulf Coast(!!!) by 7 but they are just 2-7 L9 ATS. Little Rock beat FIU by 12 at FIU on 1/6 and this one should get even more ugly than that.


That's 5 early ones....good luck today!

sb

 

Another 2 PM EST looker:

Ohio U -2 vs Akron
Bobcats a respectable 9-6-1 ATS and a solid 6-1 ATS at home up against a Zips team that has struggled against the number (6-11-2 ATS), especially on the road at just 2-7 ATS. Bobcats have also covered 7 of the last 9 against the Zips and the home team has won the last 4 SU with the Zips winning by 8 as an 8 pt fav on 1/20. Ohio U with sizable advantages from downtown, the charity stripe and on the boards. Akron getting outrebounded on the road by over 7 rebounds a game. Bobcats have also been better against the number winning SU and ATS in the last 3 at home against Ball St, Miami-OH and Central Michigan. A very good spot for Ohio U to get some revenge.

Good luck today!

sb

 

[Kojak]

I really like that Arkansas Little Rock play. Best of luck.

 

Thanks Kojak...looking for a big day today.

Indiana State +6 -120 at Illinois State
These are two pretty bad basketball teams getting together in Bloomington/Normal today. Indy St a respectable 11-8 ATS overall and 6-2 ATS on the road. The Redbirds however are just 7-10-1 ATS overall and 3-5 ATS at home. Sycamores beat the Redbirds at their barn as a 1 point dog a few weeks ago. Indy State is in the midst of a 6 game losing streak but they are 5-0 ATS on the road in their last 5 covering at much tougher arenas. Illinois State on a 4 game ATS losing streak including getting hammered by Wichita State at home (2 pt dog lost by 20) and losing SU and ATS to Bradley as a 7.5 fav. Statwise the teams are very even so I think 6 is too much to give here.

At least I finally found a dog I liked.

Good luck today!

sb

 

So far a push and Sparty looking ugly:

Baylor/Oklahoma St OVER 138
This game really looks like an over with Baylor 4-1 O/U this year including 2-0 O/U on the road and OK State 7-2 O/U with a 3-1 O/U mark at home. I think even if it gets to be a blowout the pace will dictate an over.

Good luck!

sb

 

More chalk talk:

La Tech -2 -118 at San Jose St
This one was tough for me to call on because of La Tech's last game being at Hawaii but I'm going to look past that traditional trend and go simply on numbers. Tech 10-5 ATS/8-2 ATS on the road vs Spartans 8-11 ATS/4-7 ATS at home. Stats are pretty even overall but La Tech seems to own Sparty with a 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS run in their last 5 matchups. This includes the La Tech 11 point win at home while laying 8.5 on January 15th. SJSU played Hawaii tough but we have documented on numerous occasions here how San Jose St gives Hawaii fits. They aren't good enough to take advantage of the Hawaii hangover today.

Good luck!

sb

 

La Lafayette -4 at New Orleans
This play is mainly because the Cajuns will always be up to beat the teams from the big city (see the 21 point smacking they gave UNO a few weeks ago in the Cajundome) but they have just been amazing ATS. 10-1-1 ATS overall and 7-0-1 ATS on the road does nicely for the Cajuns. UNO respectable overall 11-9 ATS but just 3-3 at home. All stats favor the Cajuns and they did sweep UNO last year as well so I think they can contain the revenge factor. Cajuns roll tonight.

Good luck!

sb

[This message was edited by sportsbet on February 14, 2004 at 03:16 PM.]

 

0-2-1 so far...need to pick up the pace with Sparty losing by 2 (they were never really close to a cover) and KY going over (ND pushed).

Furman -1 -120 at Wofford

Wofford is awful. How they beat Charleston in their last game no one will ever know (other than Charleston shooting 28 for 81). Furman beat them by 36 points at their place and only laying 1 on the road is gold with a team that is 8-1 ATS on the road this season. Wofford's only other win in their last 8 games was at the hapless Citadel so don't expect another miracle tonight. Go Paladins!

sb

[This message was edited by sportsbet on February 14, 2004 at 03:24 PM.]

 

Murray State +1 at Austin Peay

Murray State beating everyone (20-4 overall and 5-3-1 ATS on the road) and Austin Peay an anemic 1-5 ATS at home. Murray State has lost the last 3 against AP all by 3 point margins so plenty of incentive to get the job done tonight. Numbers are even ac**** the board but there is a slight rebounding edge to the Racers. Murray St gets the monkey off their back tonight.

sb

 

Montana State +5 at Weber State

MSU 11-7 ATS/5-3 ATS on the road against a 3-11 ATS Weber St team who is just 1-6 ATS at home. Montana State has covered 4 of the last 5 head-2-head and plays better defense. Montana State playing better ball of late including a win at Idaho State (the same Idaho St team that beat Weber St at Weber St a week ago) and getting 5 points seems really good tonight.

Good luck!

sb

 

The rest of the card:

UCSB -9 -115 vs Cal Poly
Northridge -3 vs Idaho

Good luck tonight!

sb


Currently 3-2-1