THE SPORTS ADVISORS
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
(6) Penn State (5-0, 3-1 ATS) at Purdue (2-2, 1-2 ATS)
The Nittany Lions leave the comforts of Happy Valley for just the second time this season when they go to West Lafayette, Ind., to take on Purdue in a Big Ten matchup.
Penn State has opened the season with five straight wins, including last week’s 38-24 victory over Illinois, though Joe Paterno’s club came up just short as a 15-point home favorite, its first non-cover of the season. In their lone road trip this season, the Nittany Lions went to Syracuse and delivered a 55-13 beatdown as 27½-point road chalk. Penn State comes into this contest ranked fourth in the nation in scoring (49.8 points per game) and ninth in total offense (515.2 yards per game).
Purdue couldn’t stop Notre Dame last weekend in South Bend, giving up 476 yards in a 38-21 loss as a two-point road ‘dog. The Boilermakers have scored 21 or more points in every game this season, but they’ve been outrushed in every contest and outgained in their last three. Also, senior QB Curtis Painter has not been on top of his game this season, throwing just five TDs and four INTs.
Painter has not thrown a TD pass in 104 attempts over three games against Penn State, and the Purdue offense hasn’t scored a TD in its last two matchups, including a 12-0 home loss in 2006. The Nittany Lions won last year’s game 26-19 in Happy Valley, but came up short as an eight-point favorite. Penn State is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings, and the straight-up winner is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 series clashes.
Penn State is just 12-20 ATS on the road in Big Ten action since 2000, and they are on additional ATS slides of 3-8 on the road overall and 1-7 in conference roadies. Purdue is on a slew of ATS nosedives, including 1-5 overall, 7-15 at home, 3-14 in October, 8-20 against teams with a winning record and 5-17 following a straight-up loss.
The over is 4-1 in the Lions’ last five conference games and 4-1 in their last five after a straight-up win. Meanwhile the under is on a plethora of runs for the Boilermakers, including 26-8-2 at home, 27-10 in Big Ten matchups, 16-5 in October and 12-5 following non-cover. Finally, the under has been the play in this rivalry each of the last the last six years.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PENN STATE and UNDER
(24) UConn (5-0, 2-2 ATS) at North Carolina (3-1, 2-1 ATS)
UConn is trying to go 6-0 for the first time in 14 years when it visits Kenan Memorial Stadium in Chapel Hill, N.C., to take on the Tar Heels.
The Huskies opened last season 5-0 to catapult themselves into the Top 25 and they’ve done the same this year, with three of the victories coming in thrilling fashion. That includes last week’s 26-21 win at Louisville as a 3½-point underdog, as UConn got an interception return for a touchdown for the winning score in the waning minutes. The Huskies also narrowly edged Baylor 31-28 back on Sept. 19 as a 13-point home favorite and got a 12-9 overtime win over Temple in a downpour in Philadelphia, coming up short as a seven-point favorite.
UConn’s offense revolves around stud RB Ronald Brown, a junior who is the nation’s leading rusher with 906 yards in five games, and he is second in scoring with 11 TDs.
North Carolina rallied for a 28-24 road win in Miami last week, cashing as a 7½-point underdog. The Tar Heels got the job done in South Florida behind backup QB Cameron Sexton, who threw for 242 yards and a pair of fourth-quarter TDs against the Hurricanes, including the game-winner with less than a minute to play.
UConn is on ATS slides of 5-12 as a road ‘dog since 2003, 1-5 against winning teams and 1-4 in its last five on the road overall, but the Huskies are on positive pointspread runs of 28-13-1 in non-conference action and 4-0 in October contests. North Carolina is on ATS streaks of 12-5-1 in October and 4-1 in non-conference action, but they are on slides of 1-5 against Big East foes and 2-7 ATS as a home favorite since 2003.
For the Huskies, the under is on streaks of 7-2 vs. ACC foes, 13-6 in non-conference action, 6-0 in October and 5-1 on the highway. Meanwhile, the Tar Heels have topped the total in six of their last eight against the Big East, but the under is 4-0 in their last four at home.
These two teams have not met since 1990 when North Carolina scored a 48-21 win, getting the cash as a 14-point favorite.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
South Carolina (3-2, 2-2 ATS) at Mississippi (3-2, 3-1 ATS)
In what might just boil down to an early elimination game in the SEC, South Carolina heads to Oxford, Miss., to take on Ole Miss at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium.
Steve Spurrier’s Gamecocks have beaten two inferior opponents in Wofford (23-13 in a non-lined contest) and UAB (26-13 as a 26-point favorite) the last two weeks after losing back-to-back SEC contests to Georgia and Vanderbilt. Redshirt freshman QB Stephen Garcia will get the start today after throwing for 131 yards, rushing for 86 and accounting for two TDs in the ‘Cocks win over UAB.
South Carolina’s defense leads the SEC in total yards allowed (221.4 ypg) and is fourth in scoring defense (12.8 ppg).
Mississippi pulled off the upset of the week last Saturday, going to Gainesville and shocking Florida 31-30 as a 23-point ‘dog. The Gators scored late in the game, but Ole Miss blocked the ensuing game-tying PAT attempt. Houston Nutt’s offense averages 172 rushing yards per game and 214 through the air, but his defense has allowed 23.4 points per game this season. QB Jevan Snead paces the offense, throwing for 1,029 yards, but his eight TD passes have been offset by eight INTs.
These squads haven’t met since 2004, when Ole Miss went to South Carolina and prevailed 31-28 as a 17-point underdog. The Rebels have won all four meetings dating back to 1998 (2-2 ATS), but three of the four contests have been decided by three points or less with the underdog going 3-1 ATS and the road team a perfect 4-0 ATS.
South Carolina is 7-2-1 ATS as a road underdog under Spurrier, but otherwise the ATS numbers aren’t pretty for the ‘Cocks, including 2-7-1 overall, 1-4 in October kickoffs, 0-5-1 in SEC action, 0-4 on the road and 0-4 following a straight-up win. Conversely, the Rebels are on ATS streaks of 8-3-1 at home, 6-1 overall, 4-1 in SEC play and 4-1 in October.
For the Gamecocks, the under is on runs of 4-0-1 overall, 25-9-1 on the road and 6-2 following a non-cover. The under is also 9-3 in the Rebels’ last 12 October games. But the over has been the play in the last two head-to-head meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
(7) Texas Tech (4-0, 1-1-1 ATS) at Kansas State (3-1, 1-2 ATS)
Kansas State tries to remain perfect at home in 2008 while trying to slow one of the most potent offenses in the country in this Big 12 battle with Texas Tech, which arrives in Manhattan carrying a six-game winning streak.
The Wildcats have posted three double-digit wins at home, all against inferior foes North Texas (45-6), Montana State (69-10) and Louisiana-Lafayette (45-37). However, the one time it stepped up in class, Kansas State lost 38-29 at Louisville as a 5½-point road underdog, getting outgained 577-343. Wildcats QB Josh Freeman (67 percent completion rate, 1,105 yards, 11 TDs, 2 INTs) has been solid, but the defense is allowing 22.8 points and 370.5 yards per outing.
The Red Raiders prepped for this Big 12 opener with a 56-14 home win over Massachusetts in a non-lined game on Sept. 20. Senior QB Graham Harrell (64.5 percent completion rate, 1,573 yards, 12 TDs, three INTs) paces a Texas Tech offense that’s averaging 47 points and 572.8 total yards per game, including 426.2 passing ypg. But the biggest surprise has been the play of the Red Raiders’ defense, which is yielding only 16 points and 346 yards per contest.
Texas Tech is on a 3-0 SU and 4-0 ATS roll against the Wildcats, with the most recent meeting coming in 2005, when the Red Raiders cruised to a 59-20 victory as a 15-point home chalk.
Texas Tech is 4-1 ATS as a road favorite dating to last season, 4-1-1 ATS in its last six on artificial turf and 35-17 ATS in its last 52 October games. Meanwhile, Kansas State is 1-6 ATS in its last seven lined games, but 13-6 ATS in its last 19 at home.
Despite their explosive offense, Texas Tech has stayed under the total in eight of its last 10 games overall and six of its last seven in Big 12 play. Conversely, K-State is on over runs of 35-16 overall, 20-7 in league action and 4-1 at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(13) Auburn (4-1, 1-4 ATS) at (19) Vanderbilt (4-0 SU and ATS)
Off to one of the most surprising starts in college football, Vanderbilt looks to remain perfect when it hosts 13th-ranked Auburn in an SEC battle.
The Commodores opened SEC play with a 23-17 upset win at Mississippi as a seven-point road underdog back on Sept. 20, then took last week off. Vandy is putting up nearly 30 points per game despite an offense that’s averaging only 282.8 total yards per contest, including 80.8 ypg on the ground. In fact, the Commodores have been outgained in three of their four wins – including by a 385-202 margin at Ole Miss – and the defense is surrendering 81 more ypg than the offense is producing.
Auburn bounced back from a difficult 26-21 home loss to LSU by eking out a 14-12 home win over Tennessee last week. However, the Tigers, failed to cover as a 6½-point home favorite and have yet to cash a ticket this season.
Auburn has defeated Vanderbilt 13 straight times dating to 1995, and that includes a 35-7 rout as a seven-point home favorite in 2007. The Tigers are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings, including three straight spread-covers since 2002, with the average margin of victory being 30 ppg (37-7).
In addition to its spread-covering woes this year, Auburn has failed to cover in five of its last six league games. But the Tigers are 18-5 ATS in their last 23 in October and 5-2 ATS in their last seven on the highway. Meanwhile, Vanderbilt is just 3-6 ATS as a home underdog since 2005 and 10-21-1 ATS in its last 32 in October
For Auburn, the under is on runs 6-1 overall, 9-3 in SEC action and 5-2 on the road. For Vanderbilt, the under streaks include 11-4-1 overall, 7-2-1 at home, 9-1-1 in conference and 4-0 in October.
ATS ADVANTAGE: AUBURN and UNDER
Illinois (2-2, 1-2 ATS) at Michigan (2-2, 1-3 ATS)
Illinois faces its second tough Big Ten road test when it travels to Ann Arbor to take on the resurgent Wolverines, who are coming off the biggest come-from-behind victory in Michigan Stadium history.
The Illini went to Happy Valley last week and became Penn State’s latest victim, falling 38-24, but cashing as a 15-point underdog. Illinois had a balanced offensive attack (183 passing yards, 189 rushing yards), but its leaky defense couldn’t stop the Nittany Lions, giving up 422 total yards, including 241 on the ground. For the season, the Illini are surrendering 32 points and 384 total yards per game (182.5 rushing ypg).
Michigan stormed back from a 19-0 halftime deficit in last week’s Big Ten opener against Wisconsin and held on for a 27-25 victory as a 5½-point home underdog, its first spread-cover of the season. The Wolverines prevailed despite just 96 passing yards and five turnovers (all in the first half), but the defense forced four Badgers turnovers, one of which was returned for a touchdown.
These schools met last year for the first time since 2004, and Michigan prevailed 27-17 as a 1½-point road favorite, improving to 39-4-2 SU all-time against the Illini. The Wolverines have won the last five meetings in a row since 2001, going 4-1 ATS, all as a favorite.
Michigan snapped an 0-5-1 ATS regular-season slide with last week’s win and cover, and the Wolverines are now 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 Big Ten contests, as well as 8-2 ATS in its last 10 in October. Meanwhile, by getting the cash at Penn State, Illinois improved to 8-2 ATS in its last 10 true road games and 4-0 ATS in its last four Big Ten outings. On the downside, the Illini are in ATS ruts of 22-47 after a SU defeat and 6-15 in October.
The over is on runs of 6-1 for Illinois overall, 5-0 for Illinois on the road, 4-0 for Illinois on artificial turf and 4-1 for Michigan overall. However, the under is 12-5 in the Wolverines’ last 17 conference contests, and 2-0 in the last two meetings between these teams (both at Illinois).
ATS ADVANTAGE: MICHIGAN
(4) Missouri (4-0, 2-1 ATS) at Nebraska (3-1, 2-2 ATS)
Nebraska will try to bounce back from its first loss of the Bo Pelini era when it hosts Heisman Trophy candidate Chase Daniel and the high-scoring Tigers in the conference opener for both Big 12 North rivals.
After blowing out three weak non-conference opponents – Western Michigan, San Jose State and New Mexico State – by the combined score of 120-43, the Huskers finally met their match last week, losing 35-30 to Virginia Tech as a seven-point home favorite. Nebraska’s offense produced just 333 total yards and 14 first downs, and the Huskers got outrushed 206-55 and lost the turnover battle 2-0.
Missouri has been idle since a 42-21 win over Buffalo on Sept. 20, coming up short as a hefty 31½-point home favorite. The 42 points were the fewest the Tigers have scored this season, as the offense is netting nearly 54 points and 595.5 total yards per game. Daniel has been the catalyst, completing an astounding 77 percent of his throws for 1,412 yards with 12 TDs and just one interception.
The home team is on a 6-0 SU and ATS roll in this rivalry, including Missouri’s 41-6 rout in Columbia last year as a 6½-point chalk. Each of the last nine series meetings dating to 1999 has been decided by double digits, with eight decided by at least two touchdowns.
Going back to last year, Nebraska has alternated ATS wins and losses in its last nine games, but otherwise the Huskers sport a bunch of negative ATS trends, including 4-11 overall, 3-7 at home, 2-7 in Big 12 games, 4-10-1 on artificial turf, 1-4 in October and 2-9 against winning teams.
Missouri is 7-1 ATS on the highway since last year, going 3-0 ATS as a road favorite. The Tigers are also on pointspread runs of 14-4 overall, 7-3 in conference play, 4-0 after an ATS setback and 9-3 versus winning teams.
The over for the Cornhuskers is on streaks of 5-2 overall and 15-6 in Lincoln, while the over is 6-1 in Mizzou’s last seven on the highway.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MISSOURI and OVER
(5) Texas (4-0 SU and ATS) at Colorado (3-1, 2-1 ATS)
Texas quietly rolled through a perfect September and now figures to face its stiffest test of the season when it travels to Colorado for a Big 12 clash.
The Longhorns are coming off identical 52-10 home routs of Rice and Arkansas, covering easily as 29- and 27½-point favorites. Texas has given up exactly 10 points in three of its first four games (allowing just 13 in the other), and the offense has produced exactly 52 points in four of five games going back to last December’s 52-34 Holiday Bowl rout of Arizona State. For the season, Mack Brown’s troops are averaging 49.5 points and 482 total yards per game, while giving up 10.8 points and 303.2 yards per outing.
Texas junior quarterback Colt McCoy is playing out of his mind, completing 80 percent of his passes for 1,018 yards with a 14-1 TD-to-INT ratio. He faces a defense today that’s allowing just 163 passing yards per game.
Colorado followed up a 17-14 overtime upset win over then-No. 21 West Virginia with last week’s 39-21 loss at Florida State, falling way short as a 5½-point road underdog. The Buffaloes got outgained 368-278, including 249-124 on the ground, in suffering their first defeat of the season.
These teams last met in the 2005 Big 12 Championship game, and Texas pummeled the Buffs 70-3 as a 25½-point favorite. The Longhorns also routed Colorado 42-17 as a 16-point home favorite in the 2005 regular season, and they’re on a 6-0 ATS tear in this rivalry, winning four of the last five meetings by the combined score of 184-34.
Texas has cashed in five straight games overall dating to last year and is also 6-1 ATS in its last seven against teams with a winning record. Conversely, Colorado is mired in pointspread funks of 6-13 in Big 12 play and 1-4 against winning teams.
The over is 7-2 in Texas’ last nine on the highway, 9-4 in its last 13 on grass, 5-2 in Colorado’s last seven overall, 8-3 in Colorado’s last 11 conference contests and 3-1 in the last four series meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS and OVER
Florida State (3-1, 1-1 ATS) at Miami (Fla.) (2-2, 1-2 ATS)
One of the sport’s most heated rivalries gets renewed at Dolphin Stadium in South Beach, as the Hurricanes host Miami in an annual ACC battle.
Miami squandered a 10-point, fourth-quarter lead in last week’s conference opener against North Carolina, falling 28-24 as a 7½-point home chalk. The Canes outrushed the Tar Heels by 100 yards (135-35), but allowed a second-string quarterback to pass for 264 yards and two touchdowns, including the clincher with 46 seconds to play.
The Seminoles rebounded from an ugly 12-3 home loss to Wake Forest with a dominating 39-21 non-conference home win over Colorado, easily covering as a 5½-point favorite. After committing seven turnovers in the loss to Wake, Florida State coughed the ball up twice against Colorado, but also forced two miscues, one of which led to a safety.
After a series of boring low-scoring affairs against each other, the Canes and Seminoles got the offenses cranked up last year in a 37-29 shootout, with Miami prevailing as a 5½-point road underdog. Not including one pick-em contest, the underdog has covered in six consecutive head-to-head battles, including five straight outright upsets.
Going back to 2000, Miami is on a 7-2 SU roll against Florida State and 7-3 ATS in the last 10 battles. Finally, the last seven clashes have been decided by an average of 4.4 points per game.
Florida State is on an 8-3 ATS roll as an underdog since 2005, but Bobby Bowden’s squad is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 ACC games, 1-5 ATS in its last six after an outright win and 1-5 ATS in its last six in October. Meanwhile, Miami is 8-19 ATS as a favorite going back to 2005 and 0-5 ATS in ACC home games under coach Randy Shannon. Additionally, the Hurricanes are on pointspread nosedives of 9-20-1 overall, 0-5 at home, 3-7 on grass, 1-4 in the ACC and 1-4 in October.
These teams had stayed under the total in six straight meetings before last year’s clash, and the under is 5-0-1 in the last six tussles in Miami. The under is also on streaks of 41-20 for the Hurricanes overall, 24-8 for the Hurricanes at home, 13-6 for the Hurricanes in conference action and 7-3 for the ‘Noles following a SU win.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MIAMI, FLA. and UNDER
Kentucky (4-0, 2-1 ATS) at (2) Alabama (5-0, 4-1 ATS)
Fresh off a dominating victory over third-ranked Georgia, Alabama will try to avoid the dreaded letdown when it returns home to Tuscaloosa for an SEC battle against unbeaten Kentucky.
The Crimson Tide went to Georgia as a 6½-point road underdog but quickly proved the oddsmakers were way off, jumping out to a 31-0 halftime lead and cruising to a 41-30 victory. Although Alabama had just a 10-yard edge in total offense (334-324), it forced two turnovers, got efficient play from QB John Parker Wilson (13-for-16, 205 yards, 1 TD, no INT) and was never threatened in the game. Nick Saban’s defense is yielding just 13.4 points and 259.4 yards per outing this season.
Kentucky was barely tested during its non-conference campaign, outscoring its four opponents by the combined tally of 126-22, including last weekend’s 41-3 rout of Western Kentucky as a 21-point favorite. The Wildcats have held three opponents – Western Kentucky, Norfolk State and Louisville – to 3, 3 and 2 points, respectively, and they’re giving up an average of just 227.5 ypg.
This is the first meeting between these teams since 2004, when Alabama rolled to a 45-17 road win as a 4½-point chalk. That snapped a 4-0 run (3-1 ATS) by the home team in this rivalry. The Tide are 33-2-1 SU all-time against the ‘Cats, including 19-0-1 at home.
The Wildcats, who have won five straight games dating to last year’s bowl victory over Florida State, are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games and 7-4 ATS in their last 11 as a double-digit underdog, but 1-4 ATS in it their last five SEC contests and 2-5 ATS in their last seven in October.
Alabama has followed up an 11-22-3 ATS slide by going 5-1 ATS in its last six. However, the Tide are just 7-19-2 ATS in their last 28 at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, including 3-15 ATS as a home favorite since 2005.
Kentucky is on under runs of 6-2 overall (3-0 this year) and 5-2 on the road, but Alabama has over streaks of 3-0 overall, 7-3 at home, 7-2 in SEC play, 8-1 following a SU win
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(14) Ohio State (4-1, 0-4 ATS) at (18) Wisconsin (3-1, 2-2 ATS)
Seven days after a shocking loss at Michigan, things don’t get much easier for Wisconsin when it welcomes electrifying freshman QB Terrelle Pryor and Ohio State to Camp Randall Stadium for a Big Ten tussle.
The Badgers were seemingly in control with a 19-0 lead at Ann Arbor last week, then completely came unglued in the final two quarters, losing 27-25 as a 5½-point road favorite. Wisconsin, which had a 384-270 edge in total offense, scored a touchdown with 13 seconds to left, but a game-tying two-point conversion was nullified by a penalty, and the second attempt failed.
Ohio State opened Big Ten play with last week’s 34-21 victory over Minnesota, but the Buckeyes gave up a touchdown with a little more than a minute to play to blow the cover as a 20-point home favorite. A week after throwing for four touchdowns in his first collegiate start, Pryor accounted for three scores in the win over Minnesota (one passing, two rushing) and finished 8-for-13 for 70 yards in the air and had 97 rushing yards on just eight carries (12.1 yards per rush).
The Buckeyes hammered Wisconsin 38-17 as a 16-point home favorite last year, snapping the Badgers’ two-game SU and four-game ATS winning streaks in this rivalry. Prior to OSU’s rout last year, the underdog had cashed in seven straight series meetings.
Despite failing to cover a spread all season, the Buckeyes are still on ATS hot streaks of 11-3 as a road favorite, 22-8 in conference action, 9-2 in Big Ten road games and 6-1 in October. Meanwhile, Wisconsin is 6-2 ATS as a home pup since 1998, including 2-0 ATS since 2005, and 4-1 ATS in its last five overall at Camp Randall. However, the Badgers have now failed to cash in seven of their last nine Big Ten battles.
The over is 6-2 in Wisconsin’s last eight overall, 4-0 in its last four in league play and 4-1 in Ohio State’s last five Big Ten games. However, the last four head-to-head clashes at Camp Randall have stayed under the posted number.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OHIO STATE
(23) Oregon (4-1, 3-2 ATS) at (9) USC (2-1 SU and ATS)
Having had nine days to digest its shocking loss at Oregon State, USC returns to the field hoping to re-establish its dominance – and avenge a loss – when it hosts Pac-10 rival Oregon at the L.A. Coliseum.
The Trojans went to Corvalis, Ore., as a 25-point favorite and the top-ranked team in the nation last Thursday, but they came out flat, falling behind 21-0 at halftime. They were unable to recover in a 27-21 loss, snapping a seven-game winning streak (6-1 ATS) that dated to last year’s loss at Oregon. Against the Beavers, USC committed two turnovers, forced none and got manhandled at the line of scrimmage, giving up 176 rushing yards while totaling just 86 yards on the ground.
Oregon bounced back from a surprising 37-32 home loss to Boise State with last Saturday’s 63-14 destruction of Washington State as a 21½-point road chalk, improving to 2-0 in Pac-10 play. The Ducks rolled up 507 total yards, gave up only 271 and forced four turnovers while committing none. Mike Bellotti’s team has lost its top two quarterbacks this season, but sophomore Jeremiah Masoli (9-for-16, 161 yards, 2 TDs) performed well last week.
Oregon’s offense has been unstoppable this year, putting up 47.4 points and 531.6 yards per game (308.6 rushing ypg), while the Trojans are averaging 36 points and 405.3 total yards (155 rushing). However, USC has the edge on defense (12.3 points, 245.7 yards per game) over Oregon (22.2 points, 330.2 yards per game).
The Ducks snapped a three-game losing skid against USC with last year’s 24-17 victory as a three-point home favorite. The favorite has covered in each of the last four meetings dating to 2002 after the ‘dog went 5-1 ATS in the previous six.
USC is on a 4-2 ATS roll following a SU regular-season defeat. The Trojans are on further pointspread streaks of 28-12 at home (1-0 this year), 16-8 ATS as a home chalk in league play, 5-1 against winning teams and 6-1 on grass. However, they’re 1-6 ATS in their last seven October affairs and now 3-11 ATS in their last 14 as a double-digit chalk against Pac-10 rivals.
Oregon has cashed in four of its last five in October and is 25-13 ATS in its last 38 as an underdog dating to 1998 and 8-2 ATS in its last 10 after a victory of more than 20 points.
The under is 5-1 in the last six series meetings between these teams. Furthermore, USC is on under streaks of 20-8 overall, 7-1 at home, 21-7 in the Pac-10, 16-5 on grass and 4-0 in October. Finally, Oregon’s under runs include 4-1 on grass and 5-2 in conference, but the over is 5-1-1 in the Ducks’ last seven overall and 9-4-2 in their last 15 on the highway.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OREGON and UNDER
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
(6) Penn State (5-0, 3-1 ATS) at Purdue (2-2, 1-2 ATS)
The Nittany Lions leave the comforts of Happy Valley for just the second time this season when they go to West Lafayette, Ind., to take on Purdue in a Big Ten matchup.
Penn State has opened the season with five straight wins, including last week’s 38-24 victory over Illinois, though Joe Paterno’s club came up just short as a 15-point home favorite, its first non-cover of the season. In their lone road trip this season, the Nittany Lions went to Syracuse and delivered a 55-13 beatdown as 27½-point road chalk. Penn State comes into this contest ranked fourth in the nation in scoring (49.8 points per game) and ninth in total offense (515.2 yards per game).
Purdue couldn’t stop Notre Dame last weekend in South Bend, giving up 476 yards in a 38-21 loss as a two-point road ‘dog. The Boilermakers have scored 21 or more points in every game this season, but they’ve been outrushed in every contest and outgained in their last three. Also, senior QB Curtis Painter has not been on top of his game this season, throwing just five TDs and four INTs.
Painter has not thrown a TD pass in 104 attempts over three games against Penn State, and the Purdue offense hasn’t scored a TD in its last two matchups, including a 12-0 home loss in 2006. The Nittany Lions won last year’s game 26-19 in Happy Valley, but came up short as an eight-point favorite. Penn State is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings, and the straight-up winner is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 series clashes.
Penn State is just 12-20 ATS on the road in Big Ten action since 2000, and they are on additional ATS slides of 3-8 on the road overall and 1-7 in conference roadies. Purdue is on a slew of ATS nosedives, including 1-5 overall, 7-15 at home, 3-14 in October, 8-20 against teams with a winning record and 5-17 following a straight-up loss.
The over is 4-1 in the Lions’ last five conference games and 4-1 in their last five after a straight-up win. Meanwhile the under is on a plethora of runs for the Boilermakers, including 26-8-2 at home, 27-10 in Big Ten matchups, 16-5 in October and 12-5 following non-cover. Finally, the under has been the play in this rivalry each of the last the last six years.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PENN STATE and UNDER
(24) UConn (5-0, 2-2 ATS) at North Carolina (3-1, 2-1 ATS)
UConn is trying to go 6-0 for the first time in 14 years when it visits Kenan Memorial Stadium in Chapel Hill, N.C., to take on the Tar Heels.
The Huskies opened last season 5-0 to catapult themselves into the Top 25 and they’ve done the same this year, with three of the victories coming in thrilling fashion. That includes last week’s 26-21 win at Louisville as a 3½-point underdog, as UConn got an interception return for a touchdown for the winning score in the waning minutes. The Huskies also narrowly edged Baylor 31-28 back on Sept. 19 as a 13-point home favorite and got a 12-9 overtime win over Temple in a downpour in Philadelphia, coming up short as a seven-point favorite.
UConn’s offense revolves around stud RB Ronald Brown, a junior who is the nation’s leading rusher with 906 yards in five games, and he is second in scoring with 11 TDs.
North Carolina rallied for a 28-24 road win in Miami last week, cashing as a 7½-point underdog. The Tar Heels got the job done in South Florida behind backup QB Cameron Sexton, who threw for 242 yards and a pair of fourth-quarter TDs against the Hurricanes, including the game-winner with less than a minute to play.
UConn is on ATS slides of 5-12 as a road ‘dog since 2003, 1-5 against winning teams and 1-4 in its last five on the road overall, but the Huskies are on positive pointspread runs of 28-13-1 in non-conference action and 4-0 in October contests. North Carolina is on ATS streaks of 12-5-1 in October and 4-1 in non-conference action, but they are on slides of 1-5 against Big East foes and 2-7 ATS as a home favorite since 2003.
For the Huskies, the under is on streaks of 7-2 vs. ACC foes, 13-6 in non-conference action, 6-0 in October and 5-1 on the highway. Meanwhile, the Tar Heels have topped the total in six of their last eight against the Big East, but the under is 4-0 in their last four at home.
These two teams have not met since 1990 when North Carolina scored a 48-21 win, getting the cash as a 14-point favorite.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
South Carolina (3-2, 2-2 ATS) at Mississippi (3-2, 3-1 ATS)
In what might just boil down to an early elimination game in the SEC, South Carolina heads to Oxford, Miss., to take on Ole Miss at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium.
Steve Spurrier’s Gamecocks have beaten two inferior opponents in Wofford (23-13 in a non-lined contest) and UAB (26-13 as a 26-point favorite) the last two weeks after losing back-to-back SEC contests to Georgia and Vanderbilt. Redshirt freshman QB Stephen Garcia will get the start today after throwing for 131 yards, rushing for 86 and accounting for two TDs in the ‘Cocks win over UAB.
South Carolina’s defense leads the SEC in total yards allowed (221.4 ypg) and is fourth in scoring defense (12.8 ppg).
Mississippi pulled off the upset of the week last Saturday, going to Gainesville and shocking Florida 31-30 as a 23-point ‘dog. The Gators scored late in the game, but Ole Miss blocked the ensuing game-tying PAT attempt. Houston Nutt’s offense averages 172 rushing yards per game and 214 through the air, but his defense has allowed 23.4 points per game this season. QB Jevan Snead paces the offense, throwing for 1,029 yards, but his eight TD passes have been offset by eight INTs.
These squads haven’t met since 2004, when Ole Miss went to South Carolina and prevailed 31-28 as a 17-point underdog. The Rebels have won all four meetings dating back to 1998 (2-2 ATS), but three of the four contests have been decided by three points or less with the underdog going 3-1 ATS and the road team a perfect 4-0 ATS.
South Carolina is 7-2-1 ATS as a road underdog under Spurrier, but otherwise the ATS numbers aren’t pretty for the ‘Cocks, including 2-7-1 overall, 1-4 in October kickoffs, 0-5-1 in SEC action, 0-4 on the road and 0-4 following a straight-up win. Conversely, the Rebels are on ATS streaks of 8-3-1 at home, 6-1 overall, 4-1 in SEC play and 4-1 in October.
For the Gamecocks, the under is on runs of 4-0-1 overall, 25-9-1 on the road and 6-2 following a non-cover. The under is also 9-3 in the Rebels’ last 12 October games. But the over has been the play in the last two head-to-head meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
(7) Texas Tech (4-0, 1-1-1 ATS) at Kansas State (3-1, 1-2 ATS)
Kansas State tries to remain perfect at home in 2008 while trying to slow one of the most potent offenses in the country in this Big 12 battle with Texas Tech, which arrives in Manhattan carrying a six-game winning streak.
The Wildcats have posted three double-digit wins at home, all against inferior foes North Texas (45-6), Montana State (69-10) and Louisiana-Lafayette (45-37). However, the one time it stepped up in class, Kansas State lost 38-29 at Louisville as a 5½-point road underdog, getting outgained 577-343. Wildcats QB Josh Freeman (67 percent completion rate, 1,105 yards, 11 TDs, 2 INTs) has been solid, but the defense is allowing 22.8 points and 370.5 yards per outing.
The Red Raiders prepped for this Big 12 opener with a 56-14 home win over Massachusetts in a non-lined game on Sept. 20. Senior QB Graham Harrell (64.5 percent completion rate, 1,573 yards, 12 TDs, three INTs) paces a Texas Tech offense that’s averaging 47 points and 572.8 total yards per game, including 426.2 passing ypg. But the biggest surprise has been the play of the Red Raiders’ defense, which is yielding only 16 points and 346 yards per contest.
Texas Tech is on a 3-0 SU and 4-0 ATS roll against the Wildcats, with the most recent meeting coming in 2005, when the Red Raiders cruised to a 59-20 victory as a 15-point home chalk.
Texas Tech is 4-1 ATS as a road favorite dating to last season, 4-1-1 ATS in its last six on artificial turf and 35-17 ATS in its last 52 October games. Meanwhile, Kansas State is 1-6 ATS in its last seven lined games, but 13-6 ATS in its last 19 at home.
Despite their explosive offense, Texas Tech has stayed under the total in eight of its last 10 games overall and six of its last seven in Big 12 play. Conversely, K-State is on over runs of 35-16 overall, 20-7 in league action and 4-1 at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(13) Auburn (4-1, 1-4 ATS) at (19) Vanderbilt (4-0 SU and ATS)
Off to one of the most surprising starts in college football, Vanderbilt looks to remain perfect when it hosts 13th-ranked Auburn in an SEC battle.
The Commodores opened SEC play with a 23-17 upset win at Mississippi as a seven-point road underdog back on Sept. 20, then took last week off. Vandy is putting up nearly 30 points per game despite an offense that’s averaging only 282.8 total yards per contest, including 80.8 ypg on the ground. In fact, the Commodores have been outgained in three of their four wins – including by a 385-202 margin at Ole Miss – and the defense is surrendering 81 more ypg than the offense is producing.
Auburn bounced back from a difficult 26-21 home loss to LSU by eking out a 14-12 home win over Tennessee last week. However, the Tigers, failed to cover as a 6½-point home favorite and have yet to cash a ticket this season.
Auburn has defeated Vanderbilt 13 straight times dating to 1995, and that includes a 35-7 rout as a seven-point home favorite in 2007. The Tigers are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings, including three straight spread-covers since 2002, with the average margin of victory being 30 ppg (37-7).
In addition to its spread-covering woes this year, Auburn has failed to cover in five of its last six league games. But the Tigers are 18-5 ATS in their last 23 in October and 5-2 ATS in their last seven on the highway. Meanwhile, Vanderbilt is just 3-6 ATS as a home underdog since 2005 and 10-21-1 ATS in its last 32 in October
For Auburn, the under is on runs 6-1 overall, 9-3 in SEC action and 5-2 on the road. For Vanderbilt, the under streaks include 11-4-1 overall, 7-2-1 at home, 9-1-1 in conference and 4-0 in October.
ATS ADVANTAGE: AUBURN and UNDER
Illinois (2-2, 1-2 ATS) at Michigan (2-2, 1-3 ATS)
Illinois faces its second tough Big Ten road test when it travels to Ann Arbor to take on the resurgent Wolverines, who are coming off the biggest come-from-behind victory in Michigan Stadium history.
The Illini went to Happy Valley last week and became Penn State’s latest victim, falling 38-24, but cashing as a 15-point underdog. Illinois had a balanced offensive attack (183 passing yards, 189 rushing yards), but its leaky defense couldn’t stop the Nittany Lions, giving up 422 total yards, including 241 on the ground. For the season, the Illini are surrendering 32 points and 384 total yards per game (182.5 rushing ypg).
Michigan stormed back from a 19-0 halftime deficit in last week’s Big Ten opener against Wisconsin and held on for a 27-25 victory as a 5½-point home underdog, its first spread-cover of the season. The Wolverines prevailed despite just 96 passing yards and five turnovers (all in the first half), but the defense forced four Badgers turnovers, one of which was returned for a touchdown.
These schools met last year for the first time since 2004, and Michigan prevailed 27-17 as a 1½-point road favorite, improving to 39-4-2 SU all-time against the Illini. The Wolverines have won the last five meetings in a row since 2001, going 4-1 ATS, all as a favorite.
Michigan snapped an 0-5-1 ATS regular-season slide with last week’s win and cover, and the Wolverines are now 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 Big Ten contests, as well as 8-2 ATS in its last 10 in October. Meanwhile, by getting the cash at Penn State, Illinois improved to 8-2 ATS in its last 10 true road games and 4-0 ATS in its last four Big Ten outings. On the downside, the Illini are in ATS ruts of 22-47 after a SU defeat and 6-15 in October.
The over is on runs of 6-1 for Illinois overall, 5-0 for Illinois on the road, 4-0 for Illinois on artificial turf and 4-1 for Michigan overall. However, the under is 12-5 in the Wolverines’ last 17 conference contests, and 2-0 in the last two meetings between these teams (both at Illinois).
ATS ADVANTAGE: MICHIGAN
(4) Missouri (4-0, 2-1 ATS) at Nebraska (3-1, 2-2 ATS)
Nebraska will try to bounce back from its first loss of the Bo Pelini era when it hosts Heisman Trophy candidate Chase Daniel and the high-scoring Tigers in the conference opener for both Big 12 North rivals.
After blowing out three weak non-conference opponents – Western Michigan, San Jose State and New Mexico State – by the combined score of 120-43, the Huskers finally met their match last week, losing 35-30 to Virginia Tech as a seven-point home favorite. Nebraska’s offense produced just 333 total yards and 14 first downs, and the Huskers got outrushed 206-55 and lost the turnover battle 2-0.
Missouri has been idle since a 42-21 win over Buffalo on Sept. 20, coming up short as a hefty 31½-point home favorite. The 42 points were the fewest the Tigers have scored this season, as the offense is netting nearly 54 points and 595.5 total yards per game. Daniel has been the catalyst, completing an astounding 77 percent of his throws for 1,412 yards with 12 TDs and just one interception.
The home team is on a 6-0 SU and ATS roll in this rivalry, including Missouri’s 41-6 rout in Columbia last year as a 6½-point chalk. Each of the last nine series meetings dating to 1999 has been decided by double digits, with eight decided by at least two touchdowns.
Going back to last year, Nebraska has alternated ATS wins and losses in its last nine games, but otherwise the Huskers sport a bunch of negative ATS trends, including 4-11 overall, 3-7 at home, 2-7 in Big 12 games, 4-10-1 on artificial turf, 1-4 in October and 2-9 against winning teams.
Missouri is 7-1 ATS on the highway since last year, going 3-0 ATS as a road favorite. The Tigers are also on pointspread runs of 14-4 overall, 7-3 in conference play, 4-0 after an ATS setback and 9-3 versus winning teams.
The over for the Cornhuskers is on streaks of 5-2 overall and 15-6 in Lincoln, while the over is 6-1 in Mizzou’s last seven on the highway.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MISSOURI and OVER
(5) Texas (4-0 SU and ATS) at Colorado (3-1, 2-1 ATS)
Texas quietly rolled through a perfect September and now figures to face its stiffest test of the season when it travels to Colorado for a Big 12 clash.
The Longhorns are coming off identical 52-10 home routs of Rice and Arkansas, covering easily as 29- and 27½-point favorites. Texas has given up exactly 10 points in three of its first four games (allowing just 13 in the other), and the offense has produced exactly 52 points in four of five games going back to last December’s 52-34 Holiday Bowl rout of Arizona State. For the season, Mack Brown’s troops are averaging 49.5 points and 482 total yards per game, while giving up 10.8 points and 303.2 yards per outing.
Texas junior quarterback Colt McCoy is playing out of his mind, completing 80 percent of his passes for 1,018 yards with a 14-1 TD-to-INT ratio. He faces a defense today that’s allowing just 163 passing yards per game.
Colorado followed up a 17-14 overtime upset win over then-No. 21 West Virginia with last week’s 39-21 loss at Florida State, falling way short as a 5½-point road underdog. The Buffaloes got outgained 368-278, including 249-124 on the ground, in suffering their first defeat of the season.
These teams last met in the 2005 Big 12 Championship game, and Texas pummeled the Buffs 70-3 as a 25½-point favorite. The Longhorns also routed Colorado 42-17 as a 16-point home favorite in the 2005 regular season, and they’re on a 6-0 ATS tear in this rivalry, winning four of the last five meetings by the combined score of 184-34.
Texas has cashed in five straight games overall dating to last year and is also 6-1 ATS in its last seven against teams with a winning record. Conversely, Colorado is mired in pointspread funks of 6-13 in Big 12 play and 1-4 against winning teams.
The over is 7-2 in Texas’ last nine on the highway, 9-4 in its last 13 on grass, 5-2 in Colorado’s last seven overall, 8-3 in Colorado’s last 11 conference contests and 3-1 in the last four series meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS and OVER
Florida State (3-1, 1-1 ATS) at Miami (Fla.) (2-2, 1-2 ATS)
One of the sport’s most heated rivalries gets renewed at Dolphin Stadium in South Beach, as the Hurricanes host Miami in an annual ACC battle.
Miami squandered a 10-point, fourth-quarter lead in last week’s conference opener against North Carolina, falling 28-24 as a 7½-point home chalk. The Canes outrushed the Tar Heels by 100 yards (135-35), but allowed a second-string quarterback to pass for 264 yards and two touchdowns, including the clincher with 46 seconds to play.
The Seminoles rebounded from an ugly 12-3 home loss to Wake Forest with a dominating 39-21 non-conference home win over Colorado, easily covering as a 5½-point favorite. After committing seven turnovers in the loss to Wake, Florida State coughed the ball up twice against Colorado, but also forced two miscues, one of which led to a safety.
After a series of boring low-scoring affairs against each other, the Canes and Seminoles got the offenses cranked up last year in a 37-29 shootout, with Miami prevailing as a 5½-point road underdog. Not including one pick-em contest, the underdog has covered in six consecutive head-to-head battles, including five straight outright upsets.
Going back to 2000, Miami is on a 7-2 SU roll against Florida State and 7-3 ATS in the last 10 battles. Finally, the last seven clashes have been decided by an average of 4.4 points per game.
Florida State is on an 8-3 ATS roll as an underdog since 2005, but Bobby Bowden’s squad is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 ACC games, 1-5 ATS in its last six after an outright win and 1-5 ATS in its last six in October. Meanwhile, Miami is 8-19 ATS as a favorite going back to 2005 and 0-5 ATS in ACC home games under coach Randy Shannon. Additionally, the Hurricanes are on pointspread nosedives of 9-20-1 overall, 0-5 at home, 3-7 on grass, 1-4 in the ACC and 1-4 in October.
These teams had stayed under the total in six straight meetings before last year’s clash, and the under is 5-0-1 in the last six tussles in Miami. The under is also on streaks of 41-20 for the Hurricanes overall, 24-8 for the Hurricanes at home, 13-6 for the Hurricanes in conference action and 7-3 for the ‘Noles following a SU win.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MIAMI, FLA. and UNDER
Kentucky (4-0, 2-1 ATS) at (2) Alabama (5-0, 4-1 ATS)
Fresh off a dominating victory over third-ranked Georgia, Alabama will try to avoid the dreaded letdown when it returns home to Tuscaloosa for an SEC battle against unbeaten Kentucky.
The Crimson Tide went to Georgia as a 6½-point road underdog but quickly proved the oddsmakers were way off, jumping out to a 31-0 halftime lead and cruising to a 41-30 victory. Although Alabama had just a 10-yard edge in total offense (334-324), it forced two turnovers, got efficient play from QB John Parker Wilson (13-for-16, 205 yards, 1 TD, no INT) and was never threatened in the game. Nick Saban’s defense is yielding just 13.4 points and 259.4 yards per outing this season.
Kentucky was barely tested during its non-conference campaign, outscoring its four opponents by the combined tally of 126-22, including last weekend’s 41-3 rout of Western Kentucky as a 21-point favorite. The Wildcats have held three opponents – Western Kentucky, Norfolk State and Louisville – to 3, 3 and 2 points, respectively, and they’re giving up an average of just 227.5 ypg.
This is the first meeting between these teams since 2004, when Alabama rolled to a 45-17 road win as a 4½-point chalk. That snapped a 4-0 run (3-1 ATS) by the home team in this rivalry. The Tide are 33-2-1 SU all-time against the ‘Cats, including 19-0-1 at home.
The Wildcats, who have won five straight games dating to last year’s bowl victory over Florida State, are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games and 7-4 ATS in their last 11 as a double-digit underdog, but 1-4 ATS in it their last five SEC contests and 2-5 ATS in their last seven in October.
Alabama has followed up an 11-22-3 ATS slide by going 5-1 ATS in its last six. However, the Tide are just 7-19-2 ATS in their last 28 at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, including 3-15 ATS as a home favorite since 2005.
Kentucky is on under runs of 6-2 overall (3-0 this year) and 5-2 on the road, but Alabama has over streaks of 3-0 overall, 7-3 at home, 7-2 in SEC play, 8-1 following a SU win
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(14) Ohio State (4-1, 0-4 ATS) at (18) Wisconsin (3-1, 2-2 ATS)
Seven days after a shocking loss at Michigan, things don’t get much easier for Wisconsin when it welcomes electrifying freshman QB Terrelle Pryor and Ohio State to Camp Randall Stadium for a Big Ten tussle.
The Badgers were seemingly in control with a 19-0 lead at Ann Arbor last week, then completely came unglued in the final two quarters, losing 27-25 as a 5½-point road favorite. Wisconsin, which had a 384-270 edge in total offense, scored a touchdown with 13 seconds to left, but a game-tying two-point conversion was nullified by a penalty, and the second attempt failed.
Ohio State opened Big Ten play with last week’s 34-21 victory over Minnesota, but the Buckeyes gave up a touchdown with a little more than a minute to play to blow the cover as a 20-point home favorite. A week after throwing for four touchdowns in his first collegiate start, Pryor accounted for three scores in the win over Minnesota (one passing, two rushing) and finished 8-for-13 for 70 yards in the air and had 97 rushing yards on just eight carries (12.1 yards per rush).
The Buckeyes hammered Wisconsin 38-17 as a 16-point home favorite last year, snapping the Badgers’ two-game SU and four-game ATS winning streaks in this rivalry. Prior to OSU’s rout last year, the underdog had cashed in seven straight series meetings.
Despite failing to cover a spread all season, the Buckeyes are still on ATS hot streaks of 11-3 as a road favorite, 22-8 in conference action, 9-2 in Big Ten road games and 6-1 in October. Meanwhile, Wisconsin is 6-2 ATS as a home pup since 1998, including 2-0 ATS since 2005, and 4-1 ATS in its last five overall at Camp Randall. However, the Badgers have now failed to cash in seven of their last nine Big Ten battles.
The over is 6-2 in Wisconsin’s last eight overall, 4-0 in its last four in league play and 4-1 in Ohio State’s last five Big Ten games. However, the last four head-to-head clashes at Camp Randall have stayed under the posted number.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OHIO STATE
(23) Oregon (4-1, 3-2 ATS) at (9) USC (2-1 SU and ATS)
Having had nine days to digest its shocking loss at Oregon State, USC returns to the field hoping to re-establish its dominance – and avenge a loss – when it hosts Pac-10 rival Oregon at the L.A. Coliseum.
The Trojans went to Corvalis, Ore., as a 25-point favorite and the top-ranked team in the nation last Thursday, but they came out flat, falling behind 21-0 at halftime. They were unable to recover in a 27-21 loss, snapping a seven-game winning streak (6-1 ATS) that dated to last year’s loss at Oregon. Against the Beavers, USC committed two turnovers, forced none and got manhandled at the line of scrimmage, giving up 176 rushing yards while totaling just 86 yards on the ground.
Oregon bounced back from a surprising 37-32 home loss to Boise State with last Saturday’s 63-14 destruction of Washington State as a 21½-point road chalk, improving to 2-0 in Pac-10 play. The Ducks rolled up 507 total yards, gave up only 271 and forced four turnovers while committing none. Mike Bellotti’s team has lost its top two quarterbacks this season, but sophomore Jeremiah Masoli (9-for-16, 161 yards, 2 TDs) performed well last week.
Oregon’s offense has been unstoppable this year, putting up 47.4 points and 531.6 yards per game (308.6 rushing ypg), while the Trojans are averaging 36 points and 405.3 total yards (155 rushing). However, USC has the edge on defense (12.3 points, 245.7 yards per game) over Oregon (22.2 points, 330.2 yards per game).
The Ducks snapped a three-game losing skid against USC with last year’s 24-17 victory as a three-point home favorite. The favorite has covered in each of the last four meetings dating to 2002 after the ‘dog went 5-1 ATS in the previous six.
USC is on a 4-2 ATS roll following a SU regular-season defeat. The Trojans are on further pointspread streaks of 28-12 at home (1-0 this year), 16-8 ATS as a home chalk in league play, 5-1 against winning teams and 6-1 on grass. However, they’re 1-6 ATS in their last seven October affairs and now 3-11 ATS in their last 14 as a double-digit chalk against Pac-10 rivals.
Oregon has cashed in four of its last five in October and is 25-13 ATS in its last 38 as an underdog dating to 1998 and 8-2 ATS in its last 10 after a victory of more than 20 points.
The under is 5-1 in the last six series meetings between these teams. Furthermore, USC is on under streaks of 20-8 overall, 7-1 at home, 21-7 in the Pac-10, 16-5 on grass and 4-0 in October. Finally, Oregon’s under runs include 4-1 on grass and 5-2 in conference, but the over is 5-1-1 in the Ducks’ last seven overall and 9-4-2 in their last 15 on the highway.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OREGON and UNDER
