I really don't know your system smokey, but how are the Jets a play here? They have the 3rd worst run defense in the whole league. It would seem as if Philly would be the way to go here, they have been having success running the ball and winning without a QB. Not trying to bash your system, because I know it works. Just wondering what is in that formula.
I did a search in here the other day to see if Smokey had ever posted his system, which he had. It goes like this: take the underdog or the favourite (of 3 points or less) whose rushing offense and defense are superior in each of the following four categories: rushing yards per game, rushing yards per carry, rushing yards allowed per game, rushing yards allowed per carry.
NYJ: O -- 77.2, 3.4 D -- 153, 4.4
Phi: O -- 121, 4.8, D -- 86.8, 3.0
But if you look at their last three games, the Jets have improved or held steady in all four categories, while Philly has declined in all four:
NYJ: O -- 106.7, 3.7 D -- 141.3, 4.4
Phi: O -- 110, 3.9 D -- 116, 3.6
Philly is still performing better, but I gotta think it's the Jets' upward trend that is behind his reasoning. Still, a system is a system, so I don't fully understand this pick.
NYJ: O -- 77.2, 3.4 D -- 153, 4.4
Phi: O -- 121, 4.8, D -- 86.8, 3.0
But if you look at their last three games, the Jets have improved or held steady in all four categories, while Philly has declined in all four:
NYJ: O -- 106.7, 3.7 D -- 141.3, 4.4
Phi: O -- 110, 3.9 D -- 116, 3.6
Philly is still performing better, but I gotta think it's the Jets' upward trend that is behind his reasoning. Still, a system is a system, so I don't fully understand this pick.
Xpanda, you are auite right about the rushing stats system. And the seasonal stats make Philly the rushing stats system play (the others I figured out on Wed were Seattle, Dallas, Car, and Hous -- which are all named picks by SmokeyWins).
However!! As I think SmokeyWins has made clear several times (although not everyone sees every post!) -- he has used this system for many years [If I recall, going back into the 80s]. Thus, he has developed insights into when the rushing stat play will be a stronger or weaker selection. With just plain additional handicapping skills, SmokeyWins adjusts the rushing stat picks to accommodate his experience and skills. Thus, it is quite possible for him to go *against* a standard rushing stat pick, but I suspect that such a situation is rare.
Note that I do NOT speak for Smokey, but rather give my understanding of how and why he might go against PHilly when they are a standard rushing stat play.
BTW...I've been using a parallel system which (attempts to) identify "live dogs". Take any dog which has a higher yds per pass att offense than yds per pass att defense. Example: this week, Clev is a 5 pt dog, and has a 5.3 yds per pass on offense, and a 5.0 yds per pass on defense. Thus, they are a live dog. My theory here is that a dog will, in general, be an inferior team. Like Ron Jaworski, I believe that points come from the passing game. yds per pass att is nice single summary of QB accuracy, WR talent and speed, and just plain ability to move the ball through the air and sustain a drive or to strike quickly. on defense, it summarizes the ability to limit these things. Thus, a dog is identified who is able to slow down and interrupt a better team when on defense, and move the ball and score on offense, particularly if they need to come from behind (they are indicated as capable of doing this).
The system is FAR from fallible -- last year the system went 35-30 vs. the line (but 25-38 on the ML which can be more interesting). This year the system is 11-6 vs the line. I've noticed tendencies of the system (same teams showing up for 3 of 4 weeks; a team that doesn't cover tends not to cover in subsequent weeks; typically identifies 4-5 teams each week; etc).
I suspect that in a couple more years, I'll have more experience with the system, and will be better able to pluck out the bad system plays -- something akin to how SmokeyWins doesn't blindly follow the system, but relies on his experience as well.
Anyway, this week my system identifies these dogs: Clev, StL, Cin, Dall, NYJ, Buff. I always check Smokey's picks, and the win pct is fairly strong when both systems select the same side [2 weeks ago: Pitt +7 @ Den, SF +4 @Seat, both winners; last week: Wash +3 @ Buff, SF +4.5 vs. TB, one winner-one loser].
So...I am feeling very strongly this week about Dall and NYJ -- even though my gut is telling me that this week TB shows up just how week Dallas is.
Anyway...I should stop yapping and get to work...
However!! As I think SmokeyWins has made clear several times (although not everyone sees every post!) -- he has used this system for many years [If I recall, going back into the 80s]. Thus, he has developed insights into when the rushing stat play will be a stronger or weaker selection. With just plain additional handicapping skills, SmokeyWins adjusts the rushing stat picks to accommodate his experience and skills. Thus, it is quite possible for him to go *against* a standard rushing stat pick, but I suspect that such a situation is rare.
Note that I do NOT speak for Smokey, but rather give my understanding of how and why he might go against PHilly when they are a standard rushing stat play.
BTW...I've been using a parallel system which (attempts to) identify "live dogs". Take any dog which has a higher yds per pass att offense than yds per pass att defense. Example: this week, Clev is a 5 pt dog, and has a 5.3 yds per pass on offense, and a 5.0 yds per pass on defense. Thus, they are a live dog. My theory here is that a dog will, in general, be an inferior team. Like Ron Jaworski, I believe that points come from the passing game. yds per pass att is nice single summary of QB accuracy, WR talent and speed, and just plain ability to move the ball through the air and sustain a drive or to strike quickly. on defense, it summarizes the ability to limit these things. Thus, a dog is identified who is able to slow down and interrupt a better team when on defense, and move the ball and score on offense, particularly if they need to come from behind (they are indicated as capable of doing this).
The system is FAR from fallible -- last year the system went 35-30 vs. the line (but 25-38 on the ML which can be more interesting). This year the system is 11-6 vs the line. I've noticed tendencies of the system (same teams showing up for 3 of 4 weeks; a team that doesn't cover tends not to cover in subsequent weeks; typically identifies 4-5 teams each week; etc).
I suspect that in a couple more years, I'll have more experience with the system, and will be better able to pluck out the bad system plays -- something akin to how SmokeyWins doesn't blindly follow the system, but relies on his experience as well.
Anyway, this week my system identifies these dogs: Clev, StL, Cin, Dall, NYJ, Buff. I always check Smokey's picks, and the win pct is fairly strong when both systems select the same side [2 weeks ago: Pitt +7 @ Den, SF +4 @Seat, both winners; last week: Wash +3 @ Buff, SF +4.5 vs. TB, one winner-one loser].
So...I am feeling very strongly this week about Dall and NYJ -- even though my gut is telling me that this week TB shows up just how week Dallas is.
Anyway...I should stop yapping and get to work...
Dogman.....
I could not have said it better...
GREAT FREAKIN POST!!!!!!
There is no way that I could teach someone everything that I look at when I study the games and make my selections....
BTW... the JETS are NOT what I would call a rushing stat play... This play comes from a source that over the last 15-20 years will hit 13 - 16 games for the year on his 4pm plays.. this year he is 7-0 at 4pm and 6-0 on sunday night and most of the plays are very easy wins.
the worst he has ever done on his 4pm NFL plays for the year is 13-3, with many 16-0 years in there.....
I no that sounds all sports service -Mike Warren like but...
JETS
KC
I could not have said it better...
GREAT FREAKIN POST!!!!!!
There is no way that I could teach someone everything that I look at when I study the games and make my selections....
BTW... the JETS are NOT what I would call a rushing stat play... This play comes from a source that over the last 15-20 years will hit 13 - 16 games for the year on his 4pm plays.. this year he is 7-0 at 4pm and 6-0 on sunday night and most of the plays are very easy wins.
the worst he has ever done on his 4pm NFL plays for the year is 13-3, with many 16-0 years in there.....
I no that sounds all sports service -Mike Warren like but...
JETS
KC
Smokey, great job on Saturday. Hope it carries over. Regardless of how the system works or what you tweaked to get it done, it seems to be running on all cylinders! Keep up the good work.
Like I said in the college thread, I like to sneak a peek at the "system plays", although I admit that I don't play every one that you post, I do however like to see both/all sides of a play I am going to make.
Keep doing what you are doing.
Best of luck tomorrow
BTF.
Like I said in the college thread, I like to sneak a peek at the "system plays", although I admit that I don't play every one that you post, I do however like to see both/all sides of a play I am going to make.
Keep doing what you are doing.
Best of luck tomorrow
BTF.
How about using a filter where a play is only a play if current form matches season averages? E.g., take the stats for the past 4 weeks as well as the season average, and only make the play if both set of stats agree.
This filter may help prevent riding a slumping horse as I like to call it. Like a team does very well early on and their stats are skewed for 4-5 games before the law of averages can kick in.
This filter may help prevent riding a slumping horse as I like to call it. Like a team does very well early on and their stats are skewed for 4-5 games before the law of averages can kick in.
VaRook, Philly was one of the two top rushing stat plays this week but when he was told by his source that Jets and Chiefs were the plays he chose to play on the Jets. Bad beat for you today. The other top rushing stat play was the Texans. So in reality the top two rushing stat plays hit TW. I've used Smokeys system since he came on LY, thanks for sharing.
I say that these two were the top plays TW because using covers, they both qualified for the season, last 3 games, and home/away numbers. Other plays may just qualify for one or two of the above mentioned categories.
Maybe the heading for the Jets play should not have been under rushing stat plays.
I say that these two were the top plays TW because using covers, they both qualified for the season, last 3 games, and home/away numbers. Other plays may just qualify for one or two of the above mentioned categories.
Maybe the heading for the Jets play should not have been under rushing stat plays.
