We're looking for a HUGE week in the NFL this Sunday... as we both LOVE, LOVE our plays this week and feel extremely confident in them!!!
Here are our write-ups, enjoy...
Carolina Panthers (1-4) at Atlanta Falcons (2-3)
Opening Line: Carolina Panthers +5.5
Before the season even started I said this Atlanta team was mediocre, and if anything, they’re just a decent home team! But Green Bay did a good job of putting that to rest the last (2) years. This week the Falcons get the Panthers @ home after an extremely emotional and deflating loss to the Packers, a game in which they were up 14-0 late in the 3rd quarter. This week they get to face Cam Newton who’s been amazing. He’s thrown for 300 yards in nearly every game, while Steve Smith is having a monster year, and both tight ends have been incredible security blankets for Newton.
Taking even more pressure off Newton is the fact that the Panthers have revitalized their running game behind a healthier offensive line and a reenergized “happily paid” DeAngelo Williams. The Falcons play the run well so I’m not expecting a monster game out of Williams on the ground, but he’s a great check down for Newton out of the back field who’s capable of breaking off a long run and he’ll definitely keep the Falcons honest. All in all Cam Newton, Steve Smith, Jeremy Shockey, and Greg Olsen could all have big games, because Atlanta’s secondary blows!
For the Falcons on offense, Matt Ryan could have a nice day as well because Carolina hasn’t exactly stopped anyone yet, but his offensive line hasn’t played well at all and both of his receivers are nursing nagging injuries, and it looks like Julio Jones is officially out for Sunday‘s game. My primary argument for the Panthers in this one is more about the Falcons than the talent of Carolina. The Falcons put everything they had into that Sunday night game against the Packers and still came up short in the end. They’ll be flat on Sunday and this is a revenge game for the Panthers who were creamed by the Falcons on the road and at home last year.
The Panthers are 4-0-1 ATS this year, and this team is playing extremely hard, week in and week out, and they’re in every game, in which most of them have come down to the wire. Also, look at their strength of schedule so far: at Green Bay, vs. New Orleans last week, at Soldier Field against the Bears, and in the desert at Arizona to start off the year. Ask yourself this question: how much better are the Falcons than the Panthers at this point in the year? In my opinion, they’re about even right now, and don’t be surprised to see the Panthers take this one straight up!
Official Play: Carolina Panthers +6 (-120)
Score Prediction: Carolina Panthers 27, Atlanta Falcons 24
San Francisco 49ers (4-1) at Detroit Lions (5-0)
Opening Line: San Francisco 49’ers +5
Wow is this 49’ers team playing hard for Jim Harbaugh or what? This team was/is extremely underrated. I’m guilty of it myself, and I didn’t predict this kind of output from this team so early on in the season. One of the real bright spots on this team has been Frank Gore, he’s starting to come on real strong and he finally looks like he’s back to his old form once again. Kendall Hunter was also a nice pick up in the draft for this team and he’s become a nice change of pace back for San Francisco. What I really like so far though is the handling of Alex Smith… they’ve finally realized that they can’t ask this guy to win games for them, but rather manage the game and not make critical mistakes. The offensive line has played much better than I thought they would too!
Defensively San Francisco is still a bit shaky against the pass, but they looked pretty dam good last week against Tampa Bay and their run defense is one of the leagues best! The Lions have some nice players on defense too, especially in regards to rushing the passer, but their secondary isn't very good and they‘re pretty bad against the run, giving up nearly 5.0 yards per carry. So Frank Gore should have another BIG week against this run defense that hasn’t stopped anyone since week 1. The pass protection may be a concern for San Francisco, but they won’t be asking Alex Smith to take huge drop backs to complete a pass. Most of their pass plays will be quicker/shorter routes to neutralize Detroit’s pass rush. And Gore’s success on the ground should only make things easier for Smith.
The Lions have some real nice players on offense but why does it take this team a full half of football to come alive? Stafford looks to be a nice player but he makes a lot of bad throws and his decision making at times is questionable. He’s gotten away with it up until this point because his receivers and tight ends are so talented and deep. Calvin Johnson and Brandon Petigrew in particular are nearly impossible to defend at times. Detroit will get their share of points on Sunday but San Francisco should be able to hang real close and keep this one a very competitive contest.
I like the 49’ers for two more reasons: As stated before, San Francisco’s run defense is stellar (3.1 YPC) and Detroit can’t run the ball, so they can pretty much sell out against the pass and focus on shutting down Detroit’s receivers in most situations this Sunday. And finally, Detroit is coming off a short week after an extremely emotional (divisional) Monday night game against the Bears. San Francisco keeps this one close and may hand the Lions their 1st loss of the year!
Official Play: San Francisco 49’ers +5
Score Prediction: San Francisco 49’ers 24, Detroit Lions 23
Buffalo Bills (4-1) at New York Giants (3-2)
Opening Line: New York Giants -3
Last Sunday was probably one of the worst performances I’ve seen from the Giants over the last decade. They were just absolutely pathetic on both sides of the ball. They were torn up on the ground and through the air against a horrible Seahawks offense led by Tavaris Jackson at QB. As bad as the defense was, the offense was even worse, turning the ball over (5) times, which is more than what they turned it over in their 1st (4) games combined. Most surprising to me (and most of us) is the fact that the Giants have yet to get any significant production from their running game yet.
With that said, this Sunday may be just what the doctor ordered for New York. Much like last year, the Bills are still horrendous against the run giving up 138 yards per game at 5.5 yards per-carry. So if the Giants can’t get production on the ground this week, they never will. The Bills aren’t much better against the pass either, as they’re giving up 283 yards per game and they’ve only recorded a total of (5) sacks which is a league worst! So the Giants should have no excuses this week, as they should move the ball with ease.
This is a talented, well coached Giants team that should come out much stronger this Sunday. Having said that, the Giants have had issues stopping anyone this year as they’re giving up an average of 122 yards on the ground and 250 yards through the air. So the Bills should be able to move the chains with Fred Jackson and Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Bills are an up-and-coming team, but this is a very important game for New York heading into their bye week, so there’s very little chance of a let down here.
Some trends to consider for this game: The Giants have played extremely well under Coughlin against the spread as a favorite, following a loss as a favorite. The public predictably likes the Bills this week but I think they’re overlooking something important here… the Bills are an improved team but they’re giving up 421 yards per game and most importantly they have an incredible 16 to 5 turnover ratio, yet 4 out of their 5 games have all come down to the wire, including (3) games decided by 3 points already. I like the Giants to bounce back this week and head into their bye 4-2.
Official Play: New York Giants -3 (-120)
Score Prediction: Buffalo Bills 20, New York Giants 31
Indianapolis Colts (0-5) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-2)
Opening Line: Indianapolis Colts +7
Last Sunday Andy Dalton actually looked pretty good. I’m not a HUGE fan of the rookie but he hasn’t made a ton of mistakes yet. Indianapolis isn’t very good against the pass so Dalton could have a decent game, with help from Grisham and AJ Green who have both been outstanding so far this year. Dalton will however have to deal with Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, so his pocket presence may be disrupted a bit. Fortunately for the Bengals they’ve ran the ball well this year, and Indianapolis has given up an average of 145 yards per-game. Having said that, they did do a nice job against Pittsburgh and Cleveland.
Cincinnati was not expected to start off the year 3-2, but let’s take a look at their strength of schedule… so far the Bengals have had games on the road against Cleveland (win), Denver (loss), and Jacksonville (win), with (2) home games against San Francisco (loss) and Buffalo (win). Furthermore, every single one of these games have come down to the wire. Also, when is the last time Cincinnati covered a -7 point spread??? We’ll get back to that in a minute… Remember, this is a team with a rookie starter at QB and young players all over the field. They did manage to beat the Jaguars (a team not much better than the Colts) last week but they had to do it in come back fashion doing very little on offense with 162 yards through the air and only 77 yards on the ground on 31 carries. They’ll have to do a better job this week because as bad as the Colts may seem to be, they’re 0-5 and they’re desperate for a win.
The Colts probably wont have much success on the ground with Delone Carter and Donald Brown. Even though they were great backs in college, running behind this O-Line doesn’t help. With that said, they should have some success passing the ball. I know it’s Curtis Painter but he faired pretty well last week, and believe it or not, this is the best passing attack the Bengals have seen all year (next to the Bills). Outside of Buffalo they went up against a struggling Kyle Orton, Baline Gabbert, Colt McCoy, and Alex Smith. And the receivers they were responsible for covering weren’t all that dynamic. Pierre Garcon, Reggie Wayne, Austin Collie, and Dallas Clark will present problems for most defenses in the league, including this one. The Colts should be able to move the chains enough to keep this one close.
Finally, as we addressed before, why does this Cincinnati team deserve to be favored by 7 points over anyone at this point in the year? It’s too early, they’ve played a soft schedule, and they have an unproven rookie starting at QB. Some interesting trends to consider for this game: Cincinnati is 2-12 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 points or more, 0-6 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points, and 2-8 ATS @ home when playing against a team with a losing record over the last (3) years under Head Coach Marvin Lewis. The Colts keep this one close and get their 1st win of the year!
Official Play: Indianapolis Colts +7
Score Prediction: Indianapolis Colts 20, Cincinnati Bengals 17
Minnesota Vikings (1-4) at Chicago Bears (2-3)
Opening Line: Minnesota Vikings +3
I thought I knew how bad Chicago’s offensive line was, that is, until I watched their performance on Monday night football. This unit is God awful, and I’m honestly starting to feel sorry for Jay Cutler. The Bears O-Line couldn’t hold up Detroit’s pass rush for (2) seconds, that’s how fast the Lions were in the backfield. It was obvious that the loss of Gabe Carimi hurt this team and he’s out another 3-4 weeks. As bad as the Bears looked Jay Cutler has to be given some credit, the guy played great considering the circumstances. You also have to take into consideration the fact that the guy has no receivers and his tight end security blanket {Greg Olsen} from last year is gone!
How much longer can this sh*t go on for Cutler before he’s sidelined with some sort of crippling injury? The challenge he faces this Sunday gets even worse, as he’ll be running away from Jared Allen and Brian Robison all night long. No duo in the league has combined for more sacks (13) in the 1st five games than these two. Not only do the Bears have to deal with Allen and Robison, but Kevin Williams, Chad Greenway, and the Henderson brothers form a dominant run defense. The Bears still have a very talented back in Forte, but how much success do you expect him to have Sunday night? The Bears have had pretty good success running the ball this year, but against inferior defenses that suck against the run. The Vikings are one the best stop units in the league, so don’t expect much in the way of production on the ground from Chicago.
As far as the Vikings are concerned, their offense isn’t all that great or even balanced for that matter. Donovan McNabb is way past his prime, and he just doesn’t look very comfortable out there, nor does he look like he’s in sync with his receivers quite yet. With that said he has much better options than Cutler at receiver and he has Adrian Peterson in the backfield to lean on. One piece of good news for the Vikings is that Julius Peppers comes into this game hobbled with a Knee injury, so who knows how effective he’ll be. I know the Bears had one of the best stop units in the league against the run last year, but much like the Steelers, they’ve absolutely sucked this year. Even Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs have called their defense “soft” in recent interviews. Just look what the Lions (a team who doesn’t run the ball well) were able to do on the ground against Chicago. The Bears are giving up an average of 135 yards per-game at a 5.5 YPC. I don’t expect that number to get any better after Sunday.
Much like the Falcons, the Bears just suffered an emotional Monday night loss. Only difference is that the Detroit game was an important divisional contest that Chicago put a lot of effort into. Most teams don’t fair too well against the spread following a road loss on Monday night football. Not to mention this is a major revenge game for the Vikings who dropped both of their games last year to the Bears. The Vikings have been in every game they’ve played so far this year, and they seem to come out fast nearly every game. The Bears look terrible, and there’s nothing to convince me otherwise.
Finally, a few trends to consider for this game: Jay Cutler is only 11-23 ATS as a favorite, as big of deal that everyone makes over Soldier Field the Bears are only 10-11 ATS over the last 3 years at home, they’re 13-18 ATS against conference opponents, and 11-16 ATS when playing on 6 days or less rest. Everything points to a cover and probably a straight up win by the Vikings Sunday night!
Official Play: Minnesota Vikings +3
Score Prediction: Minnesota Vikings 24, Chicago Bears 19
Dallas Cowboys (2-2) at New England Patriots (4-1)
Opening Line: Dallas Cowboys +7 (-110)
The Dallas Cowboys come into this match-up vs. New England rested and re-energized following their bye week. The bye week came at a good point in the season as QB Tony Romo still needed time to heal from the cracked ribs he suffered a few weeks ago as well as #1 and #2 WRs Miles Austin and Dez Bryant had another week to heal their injuries. Both are ready to go for this week’s tilt.
In our opinions this is a rather even match-up with no outstanding edge except for one big one. Dallas defensive coordinator Rob Ryan is a great defensive mind who was the coordinator for the Cleveland Browns when the Browns beat the Patriots 34-14 last season. In that game Brady and the offense had a lot of trouble due to Ryan’s exotic looks on defense. You just never know what to expect from Ryan’s defense as they constantly switch up the blitzes and looks on defense.
Dallas has some exceptional players on defense like LB Demarcus Ware who has 5 sacks through 4 games. Dallas is 1st in the league in rushing yards allowed, as they are only giving up 3.1 yards per carry. This bye week gave the Cowboys an extra week of preparation time to look at film and see what Patriots offensive weaknesses and how they can expose them once again, similarly to what Ryan did with Cleveland. Ryan employs the same 3-4 defense he did with the Browns and so far this season it is working wonders.
Dallas has made significant improvements on the defensive side of the ball. Looking at Dallas Week 4 collapse vs. Detroit, the Cowboys defense actually did a good job against a potent Lions offense. QB Matt Stafford was held to a 48% completion %, well below his standards. The Lions only scored 20 points on offense in that game, and only 3 points on offense through the first three quarters.
On defense the Patriots still have a ton of issues, and until they correct those they will continue to be a flawed team. The Patriots biggest issue remains against the pass. They are the league’s worst pass defense giving up 326 yards in the air and have given up the most 20+ yard passes out of any team this year. Romo and Dallas’ offense will have a field day. Having to face receivers Austin, Bryant, and Jason Witten is no easy task coupled that with New England’s very weak pass rush (only 8 sacks in 5 games) it will be very difficult to stop Dallas potent offense.
Official Play: Dallas Cowboys +7
Score Prediction: Dallas Cowboys 31, New England Patriots 24
St. Louis Rams (0-4) at Green Bay Packers (5-0)
Opening Line: St. Louis Rams +14.5
On paper this game has Green Bay blow-out written all over it. Unfortunately games are not won “on paper.” Just ask the Yankees, the Red sox and the Phillies. (Yes, I know it’s a baseball comparison). Every year there are games where we look at the final score and go, “How the heck did a crappy team like that beat or almost beat a great team like this.” A few games that come to my mind right away include last year’s Minnesota Vikings game vs. Philadelphia. Philadelphia was a 14 point favorite and lost outright. New Orleans was a 10 point favorite @ Seattle in the playoffs, Cleveland Browns were big dogs @ New Orleans, Oakland was a 14 point dog @ San Diego, and so on…
Moving on to this year: San Francisco beating Philadelphia outright as 10 point dogs and Seattle beating New York outright as 10 point dogs. So my point is no matter how the match-up looks on paper, these are all “well-paid” professional athletes and you better believe that they all have pride and will play hard to get their first victory of the season. The season is still very young and the Rams are in no way giving up on the season yet. They still have yet to play a divisional opponent so there’s a lot of ground they can still make up.
Rams coach Steve Spagnuolo is a defensive minded coach and with an extra week of preparation I think these Rams will be very competitive this Sunday. The Rams know they have to give everything they have for this game, while GB sees a very "inferior" team coming up and are thinking they coast to a victory. The Rams are currently 0-4, and historically the deeper a team goes winless the more apt they are to cover. Here’s a pretty amazing trend: Teams that are 0-4 or worse and are coming of a bye week, are 22-3 ATS!
I don’t believe the Packers will “be up” for this game. This is a sandwich game and a breather alert. Green Bay just beat Atlanta in a re-match of last year’s playoff win. Following this Sunday the Packers face Minnesota in a divisional match-up. Think GB will be focused for the 0-4 Rams? No, they won’t. I’ve watch thousands of NFL games over the year and I could already see how this is going to play out. Very sloppy on the Packers side. It's a natural occurrence for a good team like the Packers to take one or two opponents lightly throughout the course of the year. The season is just too long for a team to stay focused throughout. And in this David v. Goliath battle, I expect the Rams to give everything the unfocused Packers can handle. An outright victory by the Rams would not surprise here at all.
Official Play: St. Louis Rams +14.5
Score Prediction: St. Louis Rams 24, Green Bay Packers 23
Here are our write-ups, enjoy...
Carolina Panthers (1-4) at Atlanta Falcons (2-3)
Opening Line: Carolina Panthers +5.5
Before the season even started I said this Atlanta team was mediocre, and if anything, they’re just a decent home team! But Green Bay did a good job of putting that to rest the last (2) years. This week the Falcons get the Panthers @ home after an extremely emotional and deflating loss to the Packers, a game in which they were up 14-0 late in the 3rd quarter. This week they get to face Cam Newton who’s been amazing. He’s thrown for 300 yards in nearly every game, while Steve Smith is having a monster year, and both tight ends have been incredible security blankets for Newton.
Taking even more pressure off Newton is the fact that the Panthers have revitalized their running game behind a healthier offensive line and a reenergized “happily paid” DeAngelo Williams. The Falcons play the run well so I’m not expecting a monster game out of Williams on the ground, but he’s a great check down for Newton out of the back field who’s capable of breaking off a long run and he’ll definitely keep the Falcons honest. All in all Cam Newton, Steve Smith, Jeremy Shockey, and Greg Olsen could all have big games, because Atlanta’s secondary blows!
For the Falcons on offense, Matt Ryan could have a nice day as well because Carolina hasn’t exactly stopped anyone yet, but his offensive line hasn’t played well at all and both of his receivers are nursing nagging injuries, and it looks like Julio Jones is officially out for Sunday‘s game. My primary argument for the Panthers in this one is more about the Falcons than the talent of Carolina. The Falcons put everything they had into that Sunday night game against the Packers and still came up short in the end. They’ll be flat on Sunday and this is a revenge game for the Panthers who were creamed by the Falcons on the road and at home last year.
The Panthers are 4-0-1 ATS this year, and this team is playing extremely hard, week in and week out, and they’re in every game, in which most of them have come down to the wire. Also, look at their strength of schedule so far: at Green Bay, vs. New Orleans last week, at Soldier Field against the Bears, and in the desert at Arizona to start off the year. Ask yourself this question: how much better are the Falcons than the Panthers at this point in the year? In my opinion, they’re about even right now, and don’t be surprised to see the Panthers take this one straight up!
Official Play: Carolina Panthers +6 (-120)
Score Prediction: Carolina Panthers 27, Atlanta Falcons 24
San Francisco 49ers (4-1) at Detroit Lions (5-0)
Opening Line: San Francisco 49’ers +5
Wow is this 49’ers team playing hard for Jim Harbaugh or what? This team was/is extremely underrated. I’m guilty of it myself, and I didn’t predict this kind of output from this team so early on in the season. One of the real bright spots on this team has been Frank Gore, he’s starting to come on real strong and he finally looks like he’s back to his old form once again. Kendall Hunter was also a nice pick up in the draft for this team and he’s become a nice change of pace back for San Francisco. What I really like so far though is the handling of Alex Smith… they’ve finally realized that they can’t ask this guy to win games for them, but rather manage the game and not make critical mistakes. The offensive line has played much better than I thought they would too!
Defensively San Francisco is still a bit shaky against the pass, but they looked pretty dam good last week against Tampa Bay and their run defense is one of the leagues best! The Lions have some nice players on defense too, especially in regards to rushing the passer, but their secondary isn't very good and they‘re pretty bad against the run, giving up nearly 5.0 yards per carry. So Frank Gore should have another BIG week against this run defense that hasn’t stopped anyone since week 1. The pass protection may be a concern for San Francisco, but they won’t be asking Alex Smith to take huge drop backs to complete a pass. Most of their pass plays will be quicker/shorter routes to neutralize Detroit’s pass rush. And Gore’s success on the ground should only make things easier for Smith.
The Lions have some real nice players on offense but why does it take this team a full half of football to come alive? Stafford looks to be a nice player but he makes a lot of bad throws and his decision making at times is questionable. He’s gotten away with it up until this point because his receivers and tight ends are so talented and deep. Calvin Johnson and Brandon Petigrew in particular are nearly impossible to defend at times. Detroit will get their share of points on Sunday but San Francisco should be able to hang real close and keep this one a very competitive contest.
I like the 49’ers for two more reasons: As stated before, San Francisco’s run defense is stellar (3.1 YPC) and Detroit can’t run the ball, so they can pretty much sell out against the pass and focus on shutting down Detroit’s receivers in most situations this Sunday. And finally, Detroit is coming off a short week after an extremely emotional (divisional) Monday night game against the Bears. San Francisco keeps this one close and may hand the Lions their 1st loss of the year!
Official Play: San Francisco 49’ers +5
Score Prediction: San Francisco 49’ers 24, Detroit Lions 23
Buffalo Bills (4-1) at New York Giants (3-2)
Opening Line: New York Giants -3
Last Sunday was probably one of the worst performances I’ve seen from the Giants over the last decade. They were just absolutely pathetic on both sides of the ball. They were torn up on the ground and through the air against a horrible Seahawks offense led by Tavaris Jackson at QB. As bad as the defense was, the offense was even worse, turning the ball over (5) times, which is more than what they turned it over in their 1st (4) games combined. Most surprising to me (and most of us) is the fact that the Giants have yet to get any significant production from their running game yet.
With that said, this Sunday may be just what the doctor ordered for New York. Much like last year, the Bills are still horrendous against the run giving up 138 yards per game at 5.5 yards per-carry. So if the Giants can’t get production on the ground this week, they never will. The Bills aren’t much better against the pass either, as they’re giving up 283 yards per game and they’ve only recorded a total of (5) sacks which is a league worst! So the Giants should have no excuses this week, as they should move the ball with ease.
This is a talented, well coached Giants team that should come out much stronger this Sunday. Having said that, the Giants have had issues stopping anyone this year as they’re giving up an average of 122 yards on the ground and 250 yards through the air. So the Bills should be able to move the chains with Fred Jackson and Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Bills are an up-and-coming team, but this is a very important game for New York heading into their bye week, so there’s very little chance of a let down here.
Some trends to consider for this game: The Giants have played extremely well under Coughlin against the spread as a favorite, following a loss as a favorite. The public predictably likes the Bills this week but I think they’re overlooking something important here… the Bills are an improved team but they’re giving up 421 yards per game and most importantly they have an incredible 16 to 5 turnover ratio, yet 4 out of their 5 games have all come down to the wire, including (3) games decided by 3 points already. I like the Giants to bounce back this week and head into their bye 4-2.
Official Play: New York Giants -3 (-120)
Score Prediction: Buffalo Bills 20, New York Giants 31
Indianapolis Colts (0-5) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-2)
Opening Line: Indianapolis Colts +7
Last Sunday Andy Dalton actually looked pretty good. I’m not a HUGE fan of the rookie but he hasn’t made a ton of mistakes yet. Indianapolis isn’t very good against the pass so Dalton could have a decent game, with help from Grisham and AJ Green who have both been outstanding so far this year. Dalton will however have to deal with Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, so his pocket presence may be disrupted a bit. Fortunately for the Bengals they’ve ran the ball well this year, and Indianapolis has given up an average of 145 yards per-game. Having said that, they did do a nice job against Pittsburgh and Cleveland.
Cincinnati was not expected to start off the year 3-2, but let’s take a look at their strength of schedule… so far the Bengals have had games on the road against Cleveland (win), Denver (loss), and Jacksonville (win), with (2) home games against San Francisco (loss) and Buffalo (win). Furthermore, every single one of these games have come down to the wire. Also, when is the last time Cincinnati covered a -7 point spread??? We’ll get back to that in a minute… Remember, this is a team with a rookie starter at QB and young players all over the field. They did manage to beat the Jaguars (a team not much better than the Colts) last week but they had to do it in come back fashion doing very little on offense with 162 yards through the air and only 77 yards on the ground on 31 carries. They’ll have to do a better job this week because as bad as the Colts may seem to be, they’re 0-5 and they’re desperate for a win.
The Colts probably wont have much success on the ground with Delone Carter and Donald Brown. Even though they were great backs in college, running behind this O-Line doesn’t help. With that said, they should have some success passing the ball. I know it’s Curtis Painter but he faired pretty well last week, and believe it or not, this is the best passing attack the Bengals have seen all year (next to the Bills). Outside of Buffalo they went up against a struggling Kyle Orton, Baline Gabbert, Colt McCoy, and Alex Smith. And the receivers they were responsible for covering weren’t all that dynamic. Pierre Garcon, Reggie Wayne, Austin Collie, and Dallas Clark will present problems for most defenses in the league, including this one. The Colts should be able to move the chains enough to keep this one close.
Finally, as we addressed before, why does this Cincinnati team deserve to be favored by 7 points over anyone at this point in the year? It’s too early, they’ve played a soft schedule, and they have an unproven rookie starting at QB. Some interesting trends to consider for this game: Cincinnati is 2-12 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 points or more, 0-6 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points, and 2-8 ATS @ home when playing against a team with a losing record over the last (3) years under Head Coach Marvin Lewis. The Colts keep this one close and get their 1st win of the year!
Official Play: Indianapolis Colts +7
Score Prediction: Indianapolis Colts 20, Cincinnati Bengals 17
Minnesota Vikings (1-4) at Chicago Bears (2-3)
Opening Line: Minnesota Vikings +3
I thought I knew how bad Chicago’s offensive line was, that is, until I watched their performance on Monday night football. This unit is God awful, and I’m honestly starting to feel sorry for Jay Cutler. The Bears O-Line couldn’t hold up Detroit’s pass rush for (2) seconds, that’s how fast the Lions were in the backfield. It was obvious that the loss of Gabe Carimi hurt this team and he’s out another 3-4 weeks. As bad as the Bears looked Jay Cutler has to be given some credit, the guy played great considering the circumstances. You also have to take into consideration the fact that the guy has no receivers and his tight end security blanket {Greg Olsen} from last year is gone!
How much longer can this sh*t go on for Cutler before he’s sidelined with some sort of crippling injury? The challenge he faces this Sunday gets even worse, as he’ll be running away from Jared Allen and Brian Robison all night long. No duo in the league has combined for more sacks (13) in the 1st five games than these two. Not only do the Bears have to deal with Allen and Robison, but Kevin Williams, Chad Greenway, and the Henderson brothers form a dominant run defense. The Bears still have a very talented back in Forte, but how much success do you expect him to have Sunday night? The Bears have had pretty good success running the ball this year, but against inferior defenses that suck against the run. The Vikings are one the best stop units in the league, so don’t expect much in the way of production on the ground from Chicago.
As far as the Vikings are concerned, their offense isn’t all that great or even balanced for that matter. Donovan McNabb is way past his prime, and he just doesn’t look very comfortable out there, nor does he look like he’s in sync with his receivers quite yet. With that said he has much better options than Cutler at receiver and he has Adrian Peterson in the backfield to lean on. One piece of good news for the Vikings is that Julius Peppers comes into this game hobbled with a Knee injury, so who knows how effective he’ll be. I know the Bears had one of the best stop units in the league against the run last year, but much like the Steelers, they’ve absolutely sucked this year. Even Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs have called their defense “soft” in recent interviews. Just look what the Lions (a team who doesn’t run the ball well) were able to do on the ground against Chicago. The Bears are giving up an average of 135 yards per-game at a 5.5 YPC. I don’t expect that number to get any better after Sunday.
Much like the Falcons, the Bears just suffered an emotional Monday night loss. Only difference is that the Detroit game was an important divisional contest that Chicago put a lot of effort into. Most teams don’t fair too well against the spread following a road loss on Monday night football. Not to mention this is a major revenge game for the Vikings who dropped both of their games last year to the Bears. The Vikings have been in every game they’ve played so far this year, and they seem to come out fast nearly every game. The Bears look terrible, and there’s nothing to convince me otherwise.
Finally, a few trends to consider for this game: Jay Cutler is only 11-23 ATS as a favorite, as big of deal that everyone makes over Soldier Field the Bears are only 10-11 ATS over the last 3 years at home, they’re 13-18 ATS against conference opponents, and 11-16 ATS when playing on 6 days or less rest. Everything points to a cover and probably a straight up win by the Vikings Sunday night!
Official Play: Minnesota Vikings +3
Score Prediction: Minnesota Vikings 24, Chicago Bears 19
Dallas Cowboys (2-2) at New England Patriots (4-1)
Opening Line: Dallas Cowboys +7 (-110)
The Dallas Cowboys come into this match-up vs. New England rested and re-energized following their bye week. The bye week came at a good point in the season as QB Tony Romo still needed time to heal from the cracked ribs he suffered a few weeks ago as well as #1 and #2 WRs Miles Austin and Dez Bryant had another week to heal their injuries. Both are ready to go for this week’s tilt.
In our opinions this is a rather even match-up with no outstanding edge except for one big one. Dallas defensive coordinator Rob Ryan is a great defensive mind who was the coordinator for the Cleveland Browns when the Browns beat the Patriots 34-14 last season. In that game Brady and the offense had a lot of trouble due to Ryan’s exotic looks on defense. You just never know what to expect from Ryan’s defense as they constantly switch up the blitzes and looks on defense.
Dallas has some exceptional players on defense like LB Demarcus Ware who has 5 sacks through 4 games. Dallas is 1st in the league in rushing yards allowed, as they are only giving up 3.1 yards per carry. This bye week gave the Cowboys an extra week of preparation time to look at film and see what Patriots offensive weaknesses and how they can expose them once again, similarly to what Ryan did with Cleveland. Ryan employs the same 3-4 defense he did with the Browns and so far this season it is working wonders.
Dallas has made significant improvements on the defensive side of the ball. Looking at Dallas Week 4 collapse vs. Detroit, the Cowboys defense actually did a good job against a potent Lions offense. QB Matt Stafford was held to a 48% completion %, well below his standards. The Lions only scored 20 points on offense in that game, and only 3 points on offense through the first three quarters.
On defense the Patriots still have a ton of issues, and until they correct those they will continue to be a flawed team. The Patriots biggest issue remains against the pass. They are the league’s worst pass defense giving up 326 yards in the air and have given up the most 20+ yard passes out of any team this year. Romo and Dallas’ offense will have a field day. Having to face receivers Austin, Bryant, and Jason Witten is no easy task coupled that with New England’s very weak pass rush (only 8 sacks in 5 games) it will be very difficult to stop Dallas potent offense.
Official Play: Dallas Cowboys +7
Score Prediction: Dallas Cowboys 31, New England Patriots 24
St. Louis Rams (0-4) at Green Bay Packers (5-0)
Opening Line: St. Louis Rams +14.5
On paper this game has Green Bay blow-out written all over it. Unfortunately games are not won “on paper.” Just ask the Yankees, the Red sox and the Phillies. (Yes, I know it’s a baseball comparison). Every year there are games where we look at the final score and go, “How the heck did a crappy team like that beat or almost beat a great team like this.” A few games that come to my mind right away include last year’s Minnesota Vikings game vs. Philadelphia. Philadelphia was a 14 point favorite and lost outright. New Orleans was a 10 point favorite @ Seattle in the playoffs, Cleveland Browns were big dogs @ New Orleans, Oakland was a 14 point dog @ San Diego, and so on…
Moving on to this year: San Francisco beating Philadelphia outright as 10 point dogs and Seattle beating New York outright as 10 point dogs. So my point is no matter how the match-up looks on paper, these are all “well-paid” professional athletes and you better believe that they all have pride and will play hard to get their first victory of the season. The season is still very young and the Rams are in no way giving up on the season yet. They still have yet to play a divisional opponent so there’s a lot of ground they can still make up.
Rams coach Steve Spagnuolo is a defensive minded coach and with an extra week of preparation I think these Rams will be very competitive this Sunday. The Rams know they have to give everything they have for this game, while GB sees a very "inferior" team coming up and are thinking they coast to a victory. The Rams are currently 0-4, and historically the deeper a team goes winless the more apt they are to cover. Here’s a pretty amazing trend: Teams that are 0-4 or worse and are coming of a bye week, are 22-3 ATS!
I don’t believe the Packers will “be up” for this game. This is a sandwich game and a breather alert. Green Bay just beat Atlanta in a re-match of last year’s playoff win. Following this Sunday the Packers face Minnesota in a divisional match-up. Think GB will be focused for the 0-4 Rams? No, they won’t. I’ve watch thousands of NFL games over the year and I could already see how this is going to play out. Very sloppy on the Packers side. It's a natural occurrence for a good team like the Packers to take one or two opponents lightly throughout the course of the year. The season is just too long for a team to stay focused throughout. And in this David v. Goliath battle, I expect the Rams to give everything the unfocused Packers can handle. An outright victory by the Rams would not surprise here at all.
Official Play: St. Louis Rams +14.5
Score Prediction: St. Louis Rams 24, Green Bay Packers 23
