hno:You are correct and have started another thread...just would appreciate some input from Hoosiers if my reads are in line with his research on line movement.
Today...see only one possible play for RLM with 57% on Detroit opened at 5Dimes at +129 now at +132 and Yankees opened as favorite at -139 moved to -142. :toast:
Although I agree with this system in principle, I think it's hard to get accurate information. 6 different sites will give you 6 different percentages. And a lot of times the percentages aren't even close. I've seen sites that will have a team at 70%, and another site has them at, say, 54%.
The other problem is that there is no incentive for these sites to post true percentages. Why on earth would they? Do you think a casino would help you take their money? You can't expect that the percentages they give you will be accurate.
The last thing I would mention is that the Yankees are most public team I've ever seen. That's why Vegas can make them -250 and -300, because the public will STILL bet on them. The public could care less about line value. They just know the Yankees have all those rings, so they must be the team to bet on. Nobody could ever convince me that 57% of the PUBLIC bet the Tigers today. Not a chance. As good as Jackson has been this year, I'd bet most of the public doesn't even know who he is. There may have been a lot of sharps on Detroit because there was good value with them today, but I can't imagine Joe Public would have seen that.
Like I said, I agree with this principle in theory. I just think it's hard to go by the numbers when the people giving you the numbers want to take your money.
The other problem is that there is no incentive for these sites to post true percentages. Why on earth would they? Do you think a casino would help you take their money? You can't expect that the percentages they give you will be accurate.
The last thing I would mention is that the Yankees are most public team I've ever seen. That's why Vegas can make them -250 and -300, because the public will STILL bet on them. The public could care less about line value. They just know the Yankees have all those rings, so they must be the team to bet on. Nobody could ever convince me that 57% of the PUBLIC bet the Tigers today. Not a chance. As good as Jackson has been this year, I'd bet most of the public doesn't even know who he is. There may have been a lot of sharps on Detroit because there was good value with them today, but I can't imagine Joe Public would have seen that.
Like I said, I agree with this principle in theory. I just think it's hard to go by the numbers when the people giving you the numbers want to take your money.
You're not giving bettors enough credit. They don't know who Edwin Jackson (an All-Star for a relatively public team) is, yet they're gambling on or against him? They throw money on the Yankees because they won championships a while ago, not putting any thought into it? That doesn't happen. No bettor I know throws $ on a team without thinking about it at first.
When the Yankees are -300, there are ALWAYS threads popping up on this forum about "WOW! Yankees are -300! Great value on the other side!"
New York Yankees C Wang -210?????????
SBRodds had Detroit with 55%. SportsInsights had them at 49%. It's not inconceivable that people actually bet on them today.
Joba is a favorite! BULLSHIT
Also, are these sites giving money wagered percentages, or are they giving number of bets placed percentages?
A large sample size using only one info source, with a winning percentage over that sample size maybe. If, for instance this approach using wagerline's percentages had a healthy ROI over say 200 wagers . . .
good thread keep up the input everybody and bol the rest of the way!
I couldn't post earlier but the only sue play I had was Atl. The reason NYY was not a sure play becauise when I looked, the odds didn't move enough in favor of the Yankees. I checked around noon and the line movement was miniomal. Maybe it picked up later. But, the public showed 65% on scoresandodds which is what I used for the first part of this system.
AS for Atl, around noon, scoresandodds showed 56% on the Mets and the odds had clearly moved higher for Atl.
Of course, this system may depend on which site you use to determine public betting percentages (I assume scoresandodds is reliable) and which book you use to determine line movement, but Atl was clearly a play when I looked. Anyone disagree?
AS for Atl, around noon, scoresandodds showed 56% on the Mets and the odds had clearly moved higher for Atl.
Of course, this system may depend on which site you use to determine public betting percentages (I assume scoresandodds is reliable) and which book you use to determine line movement, but Atl was clearly a play when I looked. Anyone disagree?
CLUB
ATL was a play if you were looking at scoresandodds and 5 dimes %, but if you were looking at SI they only showed 45% on NYM
guess it all depends on who you trust, or which betting % web sites work for this RLM betting
someone asked about RLM on the dog......well that would have gone something like 0-4 today using this same idea here
ATL was a play if you were looking at scoresandodds and 5 dimes %, but if you were looking at SI they only showed 45% on NYM
guess it all depends on who you trust, or which betting % web sites work for this RLM betting
someone asked about RLM on the dog......well that would have gone something like 0-4 today using this same idea here
