2nd game is a tough one, Rice #6 in Time of Possession. If it were not for the Suspension and injuries and Hawaii, I would be all over Fresno St, but they will have a key CB and DE out for this game and although they were not starters, the #2 and #3 Mike LB's will be out leaving no depth at the position. Fresno could melt later in this game due to depth, if Rice is able to manage the clock. A real unknown here. If I can win the afternoon game, it very well may be onto Thursday.
I wished I had not gotten so pissed off Christmas Eve over that Wky game...I had a Winner that evening.
The suspensions with La Tech make the 1st Game tricky.....still evaluating. with O Toole at QB, Illinois will run more than throw and try to control the clock. I they can this will be an interesting game. La Tech has 2 OL starters out but Illinois does too and is down to only 7 OL's on the entire team. Having the 2 LB starters out may allow Illinois to run better. They learned late in the season that their best success was not throwing the ball all over the place, but to have more balance and control more clock. Question is, with both OL's revamped, how much success will they have. May or may not have a play if I do it will be in about 30.
16 out of 25 games between the two went Over this total
Going to Roll with
Illinois +7.5 -120 for 4 Units
I think the Illini has some motivation today, 15 extra practices...got smacked by La Tech 2 years ago and excited to be back in a Bowl Game after 3 years. I think the Coach has finally figured out the Offense this team needs to succeed and Win games. It also help the Defense when they don't toss the ball around all game long. The 2 LB's and the 2 OL's will hurt La Tech today.....it will help in additional yards for Illinois drives and take away from blocking and protection.
Taking the Dog.....who could win straight up.
Illinois +7.5 -120 for 4 Units
I think the Illini has some motivation today, 15 extra practices...got smacked by La Tech 2 years ago and excited to be back in a Bowl Game after 3 years. I think the Coach has finally figured out the Offense this team needs to succeed and Win games. It also help the Defense when they don't toss the ball around all game long. The 2 LB's and the 2 OL's will hurt La Tech today.....it will help in additional yards for Illinois drives and take away from blocking and protection.
Taking the Dog.....who could win straight up.
In the 2nd game, one thing that strikes me is the Rutgers lost to who they should have lost to in 4 of 5 games other than Penn State. As for North Carolina, what strikes me is despite statistically having a really good Offense, Defense decided their fate. They have some good wins, but 5 of 6 of their Wins were by 5 points or less. In studying the news clippings, you see articles about the Seniors on Rutgers defense, Nova's last year etc. I did not really find much on North Carolina. A win against NC State and it would have been considered a decent Season. Instead really poor execution, 30 yards Rushing, a bad loss, the DC and Assistant Head Coach fired. The only edge you can find on Stats is the NC Offense, good numbers. They run a play every 12 seconds by the way.
UCF faced 8 Top 60 Defenses and 4 Top 60 Offenses. They also groomed an inexperienced QB along the way. NC State faced 6 Top 60 Defenses and 3 Top 60 Offenses. NC State is 62 in Total Offense and 49 in Total Defense. They are 35th in Rushing and struggle to stop the Run on Defense, 75th. UCF is 99th in Total Offense and #2 in Total Defense, They are 102 in Rushing....that's a concern. They are #17 however in Time of Possession which is odd considering their bad Offensive numbers. NC State did not beat a Division I team with a winning record all Season. 6-6 UNC was the best effort. Statistically this will be the best Rushing Offense UCF has faced all Season at 35th. NC State has a very good Punter, UCF does not. UCF has a definite edge in Kick-off and Punt Returns.
UCF Strength of Schedule is 67, NC State 65, Game in St. Petersburg
UCF Strength of Schedule is 67, NC State 65, Game in St. Petersburg
Another interesting Stat....UCF faced 7 Top 6 Rushing Defenses. NC State is 75th in Rushing Defense despite only facing 2 Top 50 Rushing Offenses. I think you have to look at the the player rather than the statistics and say that later in the Season, when Justin Holman began gaining confidence and taking pressure off the Run game, William Stanback gained better yardage.
