RD Smith's MLB Totals

[RDSmith48]

Let's bang 'em home tonight

9-3-1, +7.5*, 2-0 pods so far this week. Had no* on Boston ov 11.5 nor Ariz. under 8.5 or 9 last night until I got a line of 11 on Boston, jumped but my write-ups are basd on the Vegas line @ 2:00 est., can only make small adjustments when I get my line @ 6. Detroit over 9.5 2* pod, if you get 10 drop to 1.5*, Tigers hammer L, Jays only 2-11 2.5 rpg. ag. L on road, 11.5 park, Jays hitting keeps this from being higher depending on your line' Col. over 9.5 1.5*, Rockies hit L 7.3 @ nt. @ Coor's and neither Davis nor Francis have shown gd. form lately, only downside is Col. has been playing to the under lately @ hm' I think the adjustment to 9.5 takes care of that; Mil under 7 1*, teams rpg. @ 7.6, both pitchers in gd. form, 7 ball park, just don't turn it over to 2 lousy bullpens too soon, Banks has only been pitching into the 6th; LAD under 8.5 1*, trap? how does the line go up when it is a 7.2 park w/ both pitchers doing pretty well, particularly Blanton, & don't forget the 2 excellent pens; Balt. under 9.5 1*, @ 9 .5*, Guthrie & Reyes recent form makes me go under but keep it small as we don't want the inept pens too early, both pitchers go 6.1 per gm per start; W Sox over 9, 10.6 rpg. teams, 9.6 park, inconsistent pitching, worth .5*; Boston was a np @ 11, Tex. only ave. 3 rpg. @ nt. on the road, Sox may have to get 9 themselves, if you get 10.5 put .5* down, you're at your own risk @ 11; Throw in some opinions: I will probably do a couple 2 teamers w/ Cubs under 7.5, Houston under 9.5 only, LAA under 8, and TB hits R much better than L so they go from a pod to small potatoes under 7.5. Remember the analysis is always more important than the picks. BOL RDS

 

[RDSmith48]

Bad day @ Blackrock

Looked worse than it really was, 3-4 -1-1.5* yesterday; put us @ 12-7-1 +6-6.5* for the week. Can't pull the trigger on the Det. gm. Litch too unreliable, if I can get Det. -160 maybe a little action there; have drs. appt. am looking over the 2-4 PM gms, some good possibilities, be back hopefully by 1:45. BOL RDS

 

[RDSmith48]

Lots of uninformed people

Let's hope some are those that set the lines. Capping afternon contests is a completely different animal than night gms. Pitchers pitch differently, teams hit differently, & the best animal in the zoo is park yield where there are 3 teams in the AL w/differences as high as 2.3 rpg & 4 teams in the NL w/differences of 2.3. Let's use that information to our advantage. Those of you that have followed me for a while know I don't like going under in Balt. (W last nt.) nor Col. however when the proper adjustments to the line are not made we have to re-think. Last nights LAD gm. was a trap gm. (unfortunately got caught in it) & todays Houston gm. is also. Pitchers in gd. form but 10.7 park and line is dropping from 9.5 to 9; for my $ nice gm. to stay away from. If you can get Mil. @ 7 I would lay a small amt. on the under as Sheets & Peavy have been lights out, but teams ave. 8.9 in a 9 park, I got 6.5 no way, Jose. I like Col. under 9.5 for 1.5*, Haren v Rusch, Col. hits R 1.5 rpg less than L, & the park yield in daylight is 9.8 not 11.1 like night-time. I know they adjusted down to 9.5 but sounds like a gd. number to me. In the AL KC & WSox hit 9.2 in daylight, Davis not in gd. form & who's Broadway, Broadway Joe's son? Park yield is 10.4 in daylight w/regular pitchers. W/these clowns on the bump I'll gladly take the over 10 for 1.5*. Remember this is only a basic recipe, add your own favorite ingredients. TB might go under w/the one & only Jimmy Shields but wouldn't risk a lot. 8.8 rpg. in an 8.7 park. Be back tonight hopefully w/2 under my belt trying to avenge last night. As always. BOL RDS

 

[potomac52]

nice job rd..

 

[sdf]

thx for the earlies...

 

[RDSmith48]

I'm back

Here is tonights card: Mets under 8.5 1.5*, 8.1 hittting, 6.3 pitching, 9.0 park, just don't turn it over to 2 inept pens too early & expect to sweat thru all 54 out.
LAD under 8.5*, 9 hitting, gd. pitching form, great pens, 7.2 park, why is the high line so high? Let's get 'em back for the last 2 nights
Balt over 10.5 1*, Jackson 1.75 WHIP @ AAA means runs for the O's, pen not any better,if Tribe can put up 4 or so, may be easy. May want to increase on your own.
Bost. over 10.5 1*, Rangers can hit anybody except Papelbon who we don't expect seeing, Hunter's 10.6 era doesn't impress nor does their pen @ over 5, line has been adjusted from 9.5 which is the parks number to 10.5 or gm. would be higher, maybe pod
F-ball Teaser Philly +3.5 w/ Bills over 26, getting field goal + w/home standing Eagles looks too good to be true, low number in Orchard Park should work, tread lightly. .5*
BOL RDS

 

[RDSmith48]

Texas sorry asses

Apologize for Texas not getting a run to put it over, still went 5-2 +3* today. Buffalo ov was mine, Philly (phew) was a service. Anyway 14-5-1 + 9.5* so far this week. Happy as a cat in a bowl of tuna. See you tomorrow. ENJOY! BOL RDS

 

[sdf]

thanks RDS....gl this weekend

 

[RDSmith48]

8/15

Texas over 10 2.5* pod, 11.3 teams in a 12.8 park, neither Garza nor Millwood have shown good form, are you Joshing me, does Hamilton make that much of a difference? Texas pen worst in both leagues, Percival out for TB; if you get 10.5 drop to 2*
Boston under 8.5 1*, Halladay usually pitches 8, turns it over to the best pen in the league, although familiar Byrd will try to impress in Beantown, teams put up 9 in a 9.5 park, so tread lightly especially if you lose the hook
Detroit over 10.5 1*, Tigers pound L & Balt. can hit also; who's Waters? muddy? teams ave. 10.6 in an 11.5 park
Atlanta over 7.5 .5*, neither offense any good but they put up 11 last night, both pitchers ok, but 7.5 in a 9.5 park bothers me so a lean to the over
Philly under 8 .5*, both pitchers doing well, got to get all 54 outs, Philly pen very gd. which will come into play as Myers usually doesn't pitch past the 6th, 7.0 park
Oakland under 8.5 .5*, teams combine for 7.4 in a 7.1 park, Floyd is better than he has shown recently, 2 half-way decent pens
FOOTBALL going to tease Oak. +11 w/over 28, Tenn. couldn't air it out against an inept Rams team so look for them to keep trying, if you don't like Oak., take Tenn. +3 w/over 28, just don't go under
BOL RDS

 

[RDSmith48]

WOW! Guess Josh is that important

Texas shut out 2 in a row, amazing; let's get off that train before it derails. Only 3-3-1 last nt., lost Texas pod, hope you didn' go as heavy as I did. Oak/over & Tenn./over both came in, lost 1*, down to 8.5* w/2 days to go in the week; guess I best get studying. BOL RDS

 

[RDSmith48]

tonight's total & more

Det over 10 2* pod, Sarfate v Verlander, sounds like runs to me, 11.2 rpg teams in an 11.5 park, hopefully won't need the 9th tonight
Boston under 8.5 1*, same as last night's analysis but don't think you'll lose the hook for some reason
Wash under 9.5 1*, 7.4 teams in a 9 park, medium pens, only problem is even the Nats may hit Hernandez
Oak under 8 1*, back @ you, 7.3 teams in a 7.1 park, just don't turn it over to the pens as early as last nt., were cruising thru 6, Danks & Smith have been pretty gd. of late
Fla. under 9 .5*, Cubbies don't hit R on road @ nt. very well (3.4rpg), both starters have had decent form, 9.1 park, small play
Can't see a total in the Phils-SD gm. but see Phils outscoring SD 5.1-3.3, Kendrick @ 1.42 last 2 starts ag. AAA Reinke w/1.31 WHIP @ Portland, a much better pen on the visitors side, gotta take Phils -140 or 145 for 1*
Pre-season football-ripe for teasers w/low totals and teams playing close the line. See a very inept Miami team on the highway and an equally inept SF team @ hm. w/ a couple totals set fairly low. For my liking how about J-ville +3/Jets over 28.5 and GB +7/w NO over 30, will work for me @ .5* each. BOL as always RDS

 

[sdf]

hope you nail em today...gl

 

[RDSmith48]

Sorry to let you down sdf & all my loyalists, basicallty shit the bed & got out of my arena of totals by picking a couple of gms. Went 4-4 but lost 1.5* today. Tomorrow is the end of the wk. & I need confidence & clients. Will post on this site once in a while & keep you updated but after tomorrow its "pay per view". Am only 16-10-2, +7* this week which is barely acceptable to me; as you know my goal is 65% +7* per wk., let's see what happens tomorrow. Will try to keep to my specialty, baseball totals. If you've been following me I've turned an 80+* profit this baseball season. Only $15 per wk. for rxers & $20 for newbees; for my record I think that is good compared to Feiner, Kelso, Winn, Hurlety et. al. who charge >$100 per wk. for less. Will do my "due diligence" tomorrow for yours & my benefit as I took a bath today. Keep the faith, you know I do my homework & bet my own gms. so losses hurt both ways. Will be on the ball tomorrow, still want to know what happened w/Det v Balt. Terrible! Hope you get this as is early in the AM; BOL RDS
:drink:

 

[potomac52]

anything today rd

 

[RDSmith48]

Sunday

How do they make Det. 10 @ nt. when they ave. 11.5 rpg and then 11 during the day when they ave. 8.8; I know Det. hammers L but Zach Miner has been having a decent season, see no reason not to stay under 11 1*
Minny under 9.5, 1*, Seattle can't hit & I think Feierabend can pitch, 7.1 park is a bonus
Santana v Karstens, 9.9 park, but like a pitching duel under 8.5 .5*
Lincecum v Morton, the teams can't hit a lick, got their runs yesterday, 9.6 park bothers me but under 8 .5*
Phils over 7 .5*, Hamels gd. SD bad, but in a 9 park might sneak over, tread lightly
Dodgers under 8, Suppan & Kershaw in gd. form, 6.7 park, Mil. may win gm. but a nod to the under .5*
Oak over 8, 9.8 teams, 10.8 pitchers in an 8.7 park, why only 8? .5*
Tex. under 11, 3 runs in last 3 gms. is not the Texas I know & Kazmir is no help to that slump, don't know Nippert but TB hits R on road for only 5 per gm., have to risk .5*
2 gd. chuckers in Houston but 10.7 park, nice gm. to watch; Col under 8.5 could be a parlay team w/Boston over 8. Cook & Perez pitching better in a 7.9 park than Marcum & Beckett in a 10.8 park.

 

[sdf]

thx for the plays. gl rest of the way

 

[RDSmith48]

just keeping in touch

had a short card Mon. & a lousy card yesterday; still 6-3-2, 1-0-1 pods, +2.5* for the 2 days. WSox got away before I could post, watch them go way over, send me an e-mail & I'll send you tonights card free, other than the Pale Hose, looks to be some value out there tonight. BOL RDS

 

[sandbagger73]

Posts

Why don't you just continue to post your picks in this forum. If not what is your address.

THANKS

 

[sdf]

posting for RDS....


co-pods Wsox over 10.5, 10.2 teams in a 9.6 park, could go over by the 5th inning as neither pitcher has any form & pens are mediocre at best.
StL under 9, 1.5*, 9.3 teams in an 8.7 park, Davis & Wellemyer have gd. form recently, bull pens keep it lower.
LAD over 7.5, 1*, 8.4 teams in a 7.4 park, LA hits L well, may get 7 themselves
Cleve. over 9, 1*, 9.6 teams in a 10 park w/neither pitcher showing gd. form recently.
Boston over 11, high number but 9.8 teams in a 10.7 park w/neither pitcher showing me anything.
Yanks under 9.5, 1*, 8.7 teams in a 7.9 park, 2 gd. pens, Pettite & Purcey just have to hold up
LAA under 8.5 1*, 9.3 teams in a 7.8 park, pens ok, Weaver & Garza have been doing well lately
Texas over 11.5 1* finally, 11.3 teams in a 12.5 park, Millwood is the best they have? sad, Tex. scolds L and Det. should get a few off Woody & the worst pen in baseball
Ariz. under 7, .5*, Peavy & Haren lights out, but 9.2 teams in a 10.2 park and both pitchers only pitch into the beginning of the 7th, not gd. pens, very scarry
SF under 7.5 .5*, Cain has regained his form & the Gts. don't hit well behind him, 8.2 park, if you get 8, increase to 1*
Like a small parlay w/LAD -200 w/Phils -250, beer $
Just found out WSox already went off, sorry. BOL RDS

 

[RDSmith48]

Why don't you just continue to post your picks in this forum. If not what is your address.

THANKS

sorry, haven't had time to get to this site lately: rdsmith48@twcny.rr.com
$20 per wk. or $15 for rxers, if I don't net you a profit for the wk. next week is free; unfortunately had my second week of that since Jan. this past week, a couple of extra inning gms. killed a couple unders; had an opinion to lay the wood with Mil. (-400) doesn't take a genious but also had KC +155 over Detroit as the Royals were 5-0 now 6-0 @ hm. in daylight ag. L ave. over 7 rpg. That I hope made people some $$, didn't count them as picks as they were just extra opinions. If you or anyone else would like to get on board just paypal me & I'll add you to the distribution list. Will post some picks on this site this wk. but taking care of my clients before gm. time has to come first & I'm not a good typist so w/picks & analyses takes me a while battling the clock. BOL RDS
:lol: