Still like that traditional voter method?
It has less 18-29 year old than there were in 2004
from pollster.com
Unfortunately, in this case, Gallup is producing two different "likely voter" models without expressing a clear preference for either. So in this rare case, we will exercise our own judgement and opting to plot Gallup's newer "Likely Voter Model II," at least for the time being. Why? First, the Likely Voter II (the one based only on respondents current voting intention) splits the difference between the registered voter results we have been reporting for the Gallup Daily and the traditional model.
Second, and more important, the traditional Gallup likely voter model has been producing samples that have significantly fewer 18-to-29-year-olds than both the likely voter models of other pollsters and available estimates of the 2004 electorate. While no one can be certain about who will vote, the least likely outcome is a 2008 electorate that is older than those who voted in 2004.
It has less 18-29 year old than there were in 2004
from pollster.com
Unfortunately, in this case, Gallup is producing two different "likely voter" models without expressing a clear preference for either. So in this rare case, we will exercise our own judgement and opting to plot Gallup's newer "Likely Voter Model II," at least for the time being. Why? First, the Likely Voter II (the one based only on respondents current voting intention) splits the difference between the registered voter results we have been reporting for the Gallup Daily and the traditional model.
Second, and more important, the traditional Gallup likely voter model has been producing samples that have significantly fewer 18-to-29-year-olds than both the likely voter models of other pollsters and available estimates of the 2004 electorate. While no one can be certain about who will vote, the least likely outcome is a 2008 electorate that is older than those who voted in 2004.
1) red states are red solely because of George Bush now? OMG
2) what unreasonable position did I take, cite specific words please
3) anybody who thinks I'm backed into a corner is a joke
you guys need a stroke fest, nothing more, nothing less. Kind of sad existence.
:lol:
I'll help Willie here and I can only assume he has to believe that McCain is going to carry Colorado. He must. If he can't, then he also can't carry New Mexico and then he loses. In addition to Virginia, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana and Ohio, Colorado is a must win for McCain.
Hang in there Willie...just a punk crowd with nothing else to do.
Maybe they can get in a free head kick...thats the highlight of their day.
Political jackals.
You are a liar, an idiot, a fool and just plain wrong, yet again.
I am waiting for just one of your silly little comments to be even reasonably accurate, you're simply not in the game.
Have some self respect, have some pride, get a clue before you post.
:nohead:
Now.....looking for a way to win without holding Colorado....wow
McCain camp looking for way to win without Colorado
Posted: 06:40 PM ET
From CNN Chief National Correspondent John King
Some McCain insiders believe Colorado is out of reach.
(CNN) — The McCain campaign is looking at an Electoral College strategy heading into the final two weeks that has virtually no room for error and depends heavily on a dramatic comeback in Pennsylvania, which hasn't backed a Republican for president in 20 years.
While Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado are still officially listed as McCain target states, two top strategists and advisers tell CNN that the situation in those states looks increasingly bleak. Iowa and New Mexico always have been viewed as difficult races, but the similar assessment of Colorado reflects a dramatic shift for a campaign that had long counted on the state.
"Gone," was the word one top McCain insider used to describe those three states.
This source said while the polls in Colorado remain close, he and most others in the operation were of the opinion that the Obama campaign and its allies have a far superior ground/turnout operation and "most of us have a hard time counting on Colorado."
Campaign manager Rick Davis is among the dissenters, believing the state remains within reach, several sources in and close to the McCain campaign say.
Election Center: Check out the latest state polls
The McCain strategy depends on holding a handful of Bush '04 states that are now rated tossups by CNN: Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Missouri and Nevada. It also depends on keeping Virginia, which CNN now considers leaning Democratic, in the GOP column.
But even if McCain won all six of those states, in addition to those in which he is already favored, he would still be shy of the 270 electoral votes needed to claim the presidency.
Which is where Pennsylvania and its 21 electoral votes come into play. Most polls show McCain trailing by 10 points or more in the state, but one top adviser told CNN on Monday, "The election hinges on Pennsylvania. We'll win Virginia and Nevada in the end, but lose without Pennsylvania."
President Bush twice heavily targeted Pennsylvania — but both times came up short.
Despite the less than optimistic political assessment of Colorado, McCain at the moment continues to buy television advertising in the state: roughly $700,000 a week the past two weeks with similar spending levels ordered for the week ahead.
Obama is spending a little less than $1 million a week in Colorado.
(One of the McCain sources said that ad spending in Colorado could be increased — even doubled — to somewhere in the ballpark of $1.5 million. "We're not giving up on Colorado," one of the sources said. "But we need to have a math scenario that doesn't count on it.”)
That Obama advantage is also on display in North Carolina, where the Democratic nominee has outspent McCain more than 3 to 1 on television ads.
In the past week, however, McCain essentially matched the Obama levels — $1.1 million to $1.2 million, respectively.
McCain campaign communications director Jill Hazelbaker disputed the sources' accounts.
"We see the race tightening both internally and in public polling," she said.
"We are within striking distance in the key battleground states we need to win."
What the sources emphasized was that the campaign needed an alternative to 270 that did not count on Iowa, Nevada and Colorado. They did not say the campaign was ready to pull resources.
The internal discussions reflect the narrow menu of options for McCain.
The sources' sober assessment of Colorado and even more downbeat view of McCains prospects in Nevada come even as GOP vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin campaigns Monday and Tuesday in Colorado and Nevada. From there, Palin moves on to Ohio.
McCain camp looking for way to win without Colorado
Posted: 06:40 PM ET
From CNN Chief National Correspondent John King
(CNN) — The McCain campaign is looking at an Electoral College strategy heading into the final two weeks that has virtually no room for error and depends heavily on a dramatic comeback in Pennsylvania, which hasn't backed a Republican for president in 20 years.
While Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado are still officially listed as McCain target states, two top strategists and advisers tell CNN that the situation in those states looks increasingly bleak. Iowa and New Mexico always have been viewed as difficult races, but the similar assessment of Colorado reflects a dramatic shift for a campaign that had long counted on the state.
"Gone," was the word one top McCain insider used to describe those three states.
This source said while the polls in Colorado remain close, he and most others in the operation were of the opinion that the Obama campaign and its allies have a far superior ground/turnout operation and "most of us have a hard time counting on Colorado."
Campaign manager Rick Davis is among the dissenters, believing the state remains within reach, several sources in and close to the McCain campaign say.
Election Center: Check out the latest state polls
The McCain strategy depends on holding a handful of Bush '04 states that are now rated tossups by CNN: Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Missouri and Nevada. It also depends on keeping Virginia, which CNN now considers leaning Democratic, in the GOP column.
But even if McCain won all six of those states, in addition to those in which he is already favored, he would still be shy of the 270 electoral votes needed to claim the presidency.
Which is where Pennsylvania and its 21 electoral votes come into play. Most polls show McCain trailing by 10 points or more in the state, but one top adviser told CNN on Monday, "The election hinges on Pennsylvania. We'll win Virginia and Nevada in the end, but lose without Pennsylvania."
President Bush twice heavily targeted Pennsylvania — but both times came up short.
Despite the less than optimistic political assessment of Colorado, McCain at the moment continues to buy television advertising in the state: roughly $700,000 a week the past two weeks with similar spending levels ordered for the week ahead.
Obama is spending a little less than $1 million a week in Colorado.
(One of the McCain sources said that ad spending in Colorado could be increased — even doubled — to somewhere in the ballpark of $1.5 million. "We're not giving up on Colorado," one of the sources said. "But we need to have a math scenario that doesn't count on it.”)
That Obama advantage is also on display in North Carolina, where the Democratic nominee has outspent McCain more than 3 to 1 on television ads.
In the past week, however, McCain essentially matched the Obama levels — $1.1 million to $1.2 million, respectively.
McCain campaign communications director Jill Hazelbaker disputed the sources' accounts.
"We see the race tightening both internally and in public polling," she said.
"We are within striking distance in the key battleground states we need to win."
What the sources emphasized was that the campaign needed an alternative to 270 that did not count on Iowa, Nevada and Colorado. They did not say the campaign was ready to pull resources.
The internal discussions reflect the narrow menu of options for McCain.
The sources' sober assessment of Colorado and even more downbeat view of McCains prospects in Nevada come even as GOP vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin campaigns Monday and Tuesday in Colorado and Nevada. From there, Palin moves on to Ohio.
Do they have a plan to steal PA or something?
<table class="data"><tbody><tr><th class="noCenter">Poll</th><th class="date">Date</th><th>Sample</th><th>MoE</th><th>Obama (D)</th><th>McCain (R)</th><th class="spread">Spread</th></tr><tr class="rcpAvg"><td class="noCenter">RCP Average</td><td>10/11 - 10/19</td><td>--</td><td>--</td><td>52.0</td><td>40.3</td><td class="spread">Obama +11.7</td></tr><tr class="isInRcpAvg"><td class="noCenter">Susquehanna</td><td>10/16 - 10/19</td><td>700 LV</td><td>3.7</td><td>48</td><td>40</td><td class="spread">Obama +8</td></tr><tr class="isInRcpAvg"><td class="noCenter">Morning Call</td><td>10/15 - 10/19</td><td>607 LV</td><td>4.0</td><td>53</td><td>41</td><td class="spread">Obama +12</td></tr><tr class="isInRcpAvg"><td class="noCenter">SurveyUSA</td><td>10/11 - 10/13</td><td>516 LV</td><td>4.4</td><td>55</td><td>40</td><td class="spread">Obama +15</td></tr><tr><td class="noCenter">Marist</td><td>10/05 - 10/08</td><td>757 LV</td><td>3.5</td><td>53</td><td>41</td><td class="spread">Obama +12</td></tr><tr><td class="noCenter">Strategic Vision (R)</td><td>10/05 - 10/07</td><td>1200 LV</td><td>3.0</td><td>54</td><td>40</td><td class="spread">Obama +14</td></tr><tr><td class="noCenter">Rasmussen</td><td>10/06 - 10/06</td><td>700 LV</td><td>4.0</td><td>54</td><td>41</td><td class="spread">Obama +13</td></tr><tr><td class="noCenter">SurveyUSA</td><td>10/05 - 10/06</td><td>653 LV</td><td>3.9</td><td>55</td><td>40</td><td class="spread">Obama +15</td></tr><tr><td class="noCenter">Morning Call Tracking</td><td>09/26 - 09/30</td><td>598 LV</td><td>4.0</td><td>48</td><td>41</td><td class="spread">Obama +7</td></tr><tr><td class="noCenter">Quinnipiac</td><td>09/27 - 09/29</td><td>832 LV</td><td>3.4</td><td>54</td><td>39</td><td class="spread">Obama +15</td></tr><tr><td class="noCenter">FOX News/Rasmussen</td><td>09/28 - 09/28</td><td>500 LV</td><td>4.5</td><td>50</td><td>42</td><td class="spread">Obama +8</td></tr><tr><td class="noCenter">Franklin & Marshall</td><td>09/23 - 09/28</td><td>767 RV</td><td>3.5</td><td>45</td><td>38</td><td class="spread">Obama +7</td></tr></tbody></table>
<table class="data"><tbody><tr><th class="noCenter">Poll</th><th class="date">Date</th><th>Sample</th><th>MoE</th><th>Obama (D)</th><th>McCain (R)</th><th class="spread">Spread</th></tr><tr class="rcpAvg"><td class="noCenter">RCP Average</td><td>10/11 - 10/19</td><td>--</td><td>--</td><td>52.0</td><td>40.3</td><td class="spread">Obama +11.7</td></tr><tr class="isInRcpAvg"><td class="noCenter">Susquehanna</td><td>10/16 - 10/19</td><td>700 LV</td><td>3.7</td><td>48</td><td>40</td><td class="spread">Obama +8</td></tr><tr class="isInRcpAvg"><td class="noCenter">Morning Call</td><td>10/15 - 10/19</td><td>607 LV</td><td>4.0</td><td>53</td><td>41</td><td class="spread">Obama +12</td></tr><tr class="isInRcpAvg"><td class="noCenter">SurveyUSA</td><td>10/11 - 10/13</td><td>516 LV</td><td>4.4</td><td>55</td><td>40</td><td class="spread">Obama +15</td></tr><tr><td class="noCenter">Marist</td><td>10/05 - 10/08</td><td>757 LV</td><td>3.5</td><td>53</td><td>41</td><td class="spread">Obama +12</td></tr><tr><td class="noCenter">Strategic Vision (R)</td><td>10/05 - 10/07</td><td>1200 LV</td><td>3.0</td><td>54</td><td>40</td><td class="spread">Obama +14</td></tr><tr><td class="noCenter">Rasmussen</td><td>10/06 - 10/06</td><td>700 LV</td><td>4.0</td><td>54</td><td>41</td><td class="spread">Obama +13</td></tr><tr><td class="noCenter">SurveyUSA</td><td>10/05 - 10/06</td><td>653 LV</td><td>3.9</td><td>55</td><td>40</td><td class="spread">Obama +15</td></tr><tr><td class="noCenter">Morning Call Tracking</td><td>09/26 - 09/30</td><td>598 LV</td><td>4.0</td><td>48</td><td>41</td><td class="spread">Obama +7</td></tr><tr><td class="noCenter">Quinnipiac</td><td>09/27 - 09/29</td><td>832 LV</td><td>3.4</td><td>54</td><td>39</td><td class="spread">Obama +15</td></tr><tr><td class="noCenter">FOX News/Rasmussen</td><td>09/28 - 09/28</td><td>500 LV</td><td>4.5</td><td>50</td><td>42</td><td class="spread">Obama +8</td></tr><tr><td class="noCenter">Franklin & Marshall</td><td>09/23 - 09/28</td><td>767 RV</td><td>3.5</td><td>45</td><td>38</td><td class="spread">Obama +7</td></tr></tbody></table>
I guess they reason that if a demographic is going to come back in their camp it's the white working class & older white women. They are getting smoked with Hispanics.....which is probably why they see Colorado as gone.
They just lost another out........This is where Obama's money is huge....McCain can't be spread to thin and basically needs to abandon some states earlier than he would want.
