Ranking college football's remaining unbeaten teams
ESPN PLUS $ MATERIALNo one wants to leave the party. Odds suggested we were going to lose someone from the list of college football unbeatens in Week 9, but it didn't happen: TCU fended off West Virginia; Michigan and Georgia methodically pulled away from rivals Michigan State and Florida; Ohio State used a late surge to beat Penn State comfortably; and Tennessee just erased Kentucky in its best performance of the season.
Six is a pretty good number of unbeaten teams (Clemson had a bye last week) for this point in the season. In the College Football Playoff era, we are usually down to 4.6 power conference unbeatens by Week 10; there haven't been more than six since 2015. With Georgia and Tennessee set to meet as top-five teams for the first time on Saturday, we're guaranteed to lose at least one from this list in Week 10. Maybe someone else will decide it's too late and head home. But the unbeaten train rolls into November, and it's still relatively crowded.
Let's rank unbeatens!
6. TCU
SP+ and FPI rankings: 10th and 14thOdds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 12.0% (last week: 5.6%)
What they did in Week 9: defeated West Virginia 41-31. Unable to consistently move through the Mountaineers' defense from an efficiency standpoint, the Horned Frogs instead went over them with the deep ball. Max Duggan threw touchdown passes of 71, 55 and 29 yards, and TCU prevailed.
Week 10 opponent: Texas Tech (SP+ win probability: 79%). The Red Raiders are the ultimate wild card, having overachieved SP+ projections by 36.2 points (48-10 over WVU) and underachieved them by 25.0 points (45-17 loss to Baylor) in just the past two weeks. This looks like a comfortable TCU win on paper, but it depends on which Tech team shows up.
November X factor: DE Dylan Horton. TCU's profile is pretty straightforward: The Horned Frogs occasionally battle efficiency issues on offense, but their raw and relentless explosiveness -- their top four receivers average 15.7 yards per catch, and their top three running backs average 6.6 yards per carry -- helps them overcome a defense that ranks 76th in points allowed per drive and 58th in defensive SP+. The Frogs have allowed at least 28 points in five of their past six games, but they remain unbeaten because they have yet to score less than 38.
One-dimensional teams like this don't tend to make it to the finish line unbeaten, and SP+ indeed gives TCU only about a 1-in-8 chance of reaching even 12-0, much less 13-0 or 15-0. The Frogs are projected underdogs in Week 11 at Texas and could be looking at toss-ups both at Baylor in Week 12 and in a hypothetical Big 12 championship game.
It's probably too late for any sort of drastic defensive improvement, but if Horton starts to get home a bit more on his pass rushes, that could make a massive difference. He leads the team with 18 pass pressures, but he recorded his first two sacks of the season against West Virginia, the first of which ended a Mountaineers touchdown threat after a TCU muffed punt with the Frogs up seven in the third quarter. After registering just three combined sacks in its past three contests, TCU had three in the second half in Morgantown. It probably isn't a coincidence that the Frogs allowed only one touchdown in West Virginia's final seven drives.
The Frogs don't need Georgia's or Ohio State's defense to keep winning, but they need more than they've had if they want to avoid the type of November slump that beset some of Sonny Dykes' SMU teams in recent years. Maybe we saw the beginning of a shift in gears late Saturday?
5. Clemson
SP+ and FPI rankings: 11th and 7thOdds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 29.5% (last week: 33.1%)
What they did in Week 9: idle. The Tigers enjoyed a well-timed bye week to reset and get quarterback DJ Uiagalelei's mind right. He was benched during a dreadful performance against Syracuse in Week 8, and blue-chip backup Cade Klubnik led a comeback win. (Well, Klubnik mostly just handed the ball to Will Shipley and Phil Mafah and didn't turn the ball over, but it still counts.)
Week 10 opponent: at Notre Dame (SP+ win probability: 62%). The 5-3 Fighting Irish are coming off maybe their most convincing performance of the season against Syracuse, opening the game with a pick-six, outrushing the Orange 246 yards to 61 and putting the game away with scores on three straight fourth-quarter possessions. Clemson has been better on average, but Notre Dame was certainly better against Syracuse.
November X factor: QB DJ Uiagalelei. An X factor is generally defined as a potential difference-maker, so picking a quarterback is generally pretty lame and obvious; it's the most important position in team sports, so of course it's a difference-maker. I could have gone with star defensive tackle Bryan Bresee, who could be rounding into 100 percent health just in time for the home stretch. A wideout like Joseph Ngata, probably the Tigers' most likely big-play threat in a receiving corps that needs to provide more for its QB, would have been another option.
But Clemson's title chances sink or swim with Uiagalelei. Not only must he bounce back from the Syracuse game -- he went 13-for-21 passing for just 138 yards with two interceptions, a sack and a fumble, and Clemson was down 21-10 when he left the game in the third quarter -- he also must improve beyond the form he had shown to date.
Here is where the starting quarterbacks for each of the teams in the current AP top 10 rank in Total QBR:
1. C.J. Stroud, Ohio State (93.1)
2. Hendon Hooker, Tennessee (91.2)
6. Bo Nix, Oregon (88.4)
7. Bryce Young, Alabama (86.9)
8. Dorian Thompson-Robinson, UCLA (86.5)
9. Caleb Williams, USC (85.8)
10. Stetson Bennett, Georgia (84.1)
11. Max Duggan, TCU (83.9)
16. J.J. McCarthy, Michigan (79.1)
40. DJ Uiagalelei, Clemson (69.1)
Remove the Syracuse game from the sample and Uiagalelei's Total QBR of 74.6 would still rank only 29th. The Tigers are getting the weakest quarterback play of any primary contender, and while their defense is good -- and could get better in the coming weeks with the line finally healthy -- it isn't any better than Georgia's, Michigan's or perhaps Alabama's or Ohio State's.
A weak ACC slate will give the Tigers a chance to remain unbeaten and reach the playoff without a huge step forward from Uiagalelei, but any hopes of making noise in the CFP will require a serious upgrade. And it's probably too late to hope for a Trevor Lawrence-like star turn from Klubnik this year.
4. Michigan
SP+ and FPI rankings: 4th and 4thOdds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 25.0% (last week: 21.3%)
What they did in Week 9: defeated Michigan State 29-7. In a game mostly remembered for what happened afterward, the Wolverines nearly doubled the Spartans' yardage but once again let a spate of red zone failures keep the score closer than it should have been. Running back Blake Corum's fourth-quarter touchdown put the game away, however.
Week 10 opponent: at Rutgers (SP+ win probability: 95%). The Scarlet Knights have played three games against defenses in the SP+ top 10 (Michigan is fourth) and have averaged 6.7 points and 227 yards per game. The Wolverines' offense should get plenty of red zone practice in this one.
November X factor: WR Cornelius Johnson. Michigan's two biggest offensive weaknesses are pretty clearly connected.
My marginal explosiveness measure looks at the magnitude of a team's successful plays, adjusted for field position. Michigan ranks fourth nationally in success rate, which is to say that the Wolverines create lots of successful plays. That's good! It's the most important and sustainable aspect of an offense. But they rank 80th in marginal explosiveness, 88th with the pass and 117th on passing downs.
Meanwhile, they also rank 58th in red zone touchdown rate (64%) and 80th in goal-to-go touchdown rate (73%), and those averages are quickly heading in the wrong direction. Their averages in these two categories in the past two games: 36% and 57%.
Michigan has a few weeks to clean this up, and for all we know, it has been saving some super-duper, special formations and plays just for the big games at the end of the season. But what's the single easiest way to fix these increasingly problematic red zone issues? Make a few more big plays and avoid the red zone altogether!
J.J. McCarthy is throwing only 12% of his passes 20-plus yards downfield, 91st among the 132 passers with at least 100 attempts, and no one on the Michigan team has caught more than two such balls. But when the competition ramps up during a hypothetical Ohio State-Big Ten title game-CFP swing later this season, any easy points could be game-savers, and the Wolverines will have to stretch the field at least a bit. Ronnie Bell is serving as a strong overall No. 1 receiver out of the slot. But Johnson has flashed big-play potential for four years; he has averaged 15.4 yards per catch in his career and has scored on 10 of 76 career receptions. Johnson is the best bet for creating an uptick in explosiveness when the time calls for it.
3. Tennessee
SP+ and FPI rankings: 5th and 5thOdds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 20.1% (last week: 12.3%)
What they did in Week 9: defeated Kentucky 44-6. In my Week 9 preview, I declared that Kentucky was perfectly designed to contain the Tennessee offense and test the Tennessee defense physically. (In my defense, I also said there was a chance the Volunteers might roll anyway.)
How did the Vols respond to this supposed test? By gaining 422 yards (the most allowed by Kentucky this season) and allowing a season-low 205. After an even first quarter, Tennessee finished the game on a 37-6 run. Grade: A+
Week 10 opponent: at Georgia (SP+ win probability: 30%). When you pass tests with flying colors, your reward is getting to take even bigger tests. Tennessee already has won the biggest Florida-Tennessee and Alabama-Tennessee games in ages this season. Now, the Vols head to Athens for the biggest Georgia-Tennessee game ever.
November X factor: CB/S Doneiko Slaughter. Tennessee has basically been a better TCU this year. The Vols have been nearly as explosive but more efficient on offense, with a defense that still drags the team down at times (80th in yards allowed per drive). But Tennessee has been better than what the Horned Frogs have offered thus far on defense (31st in points allowed per drive, 34th in defensive SP+).
The Vols' defense probably won't suddenly become elite late in the season, but the offense is one of the nation's two best, so Tennessee will only have to make so many stops. What we saw from Tennessee's secondary on Saturday would generate all the stops it needs moving forward.
A junior from Roswell, Georgia, Slaughter is listed as a safety and has spent a good amount of time at nickel in his career. But with the Vols hurting at the cornerback position, he took some turns there on Saturday and thrived. He picked off a deep ball in the third quarter, but you probably remember him more for setting up Juwan Mitchell's game-changing pick with a huge hit in the second quarter.
Tennessee led 20-6 at the time of Mitchell's interception, but Kentucky was driving to get back within one score. The Wildcats wouldn't see the red zone again. Slaughter's hit was a tone-setter if ever there was one.
Injury issues have contributed to Tennessee's pass defense being suspect this season. Even after Saturday, the Vols still rank 87th in passing success rate allowed and 55th in raw QBR allowed. Georgia obviously has a better passing game than Kentucky, as would Alabama in a hypothetical SEC championship game and just about anyone the Vols would play if they reach the playoff. But Saturday's performance was a massive step forward for a unit that looked fatally flawed not too long ago, and Slaughter was a huge reason for that.
2. Georgia
SP+ and FPI rankings: 2nd and 3rdOdds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 46.5% (last week: 31.7%)
What they did in Week 9: defeated Florida 42-20. Leading 28-3 after a dominant first half, the Bulldogs fell victim to a six-minute, 17-0 Gators run that suddenly made it a game. Attention span issues have been occasional difficulties this year, but Georgia's responses have been swift and merciless. A pair of touchdown drives quickly ended the Florida threat.
Week 10 opponent: Tennessee (SP+ win probability: 70%). This is the biggest game the Dawgs have played since last year's national title game. The Vols will punish any lingering attention span issues, but the defending champs might be as healthy as they've been all season.
November X factor: DT Jalen Carter. Only by Georgia's standards could the current Bulldogs defense feel somewhat underwhelming. The Dawgs are second in defensive SP+, second in points allowed per drive and fifth in success rate allowed. They have yet to yield more than 22 points in a game.
Still, they did allow 22 points to mediocre Kent State and Missouri offenses midway through the season, and they are not creating nearly the same levels of disruption as in years past. The Bulldogs rank 122nd in sacks per dropback and 91st in my havoc rate measure (tackles for loss, interceptions, pass breakups and forced fumbles divided by total plays). They can get away with that because they have such strong pursuit speed and tackling ability, but against Hendon Hooker and Tennessee this weekend, Bryce Young and Alabama in a hypothetical SEC championship game or C.J. Stroud and Ohio State in a possible playoff game, they will need to create a bit more of a presence in the backfield. And against Tennessee, it appears they might have to do it without injured star and outside linebacker Nolan Smith.
Enter a healthy Jalen Carter. The 300-pound junior came into the season as probably the second-best defensive player in the country, behind Alabama's Will Anderson Jr.; in 2021, Carter was arguably the best player on a defensive line that featured three first-round picks in last spring's NFL draft. But Carter was slowed by an ankle injury in September then an MCL injury in October. After recording 31 snaps in the season opener against Oregon, he has managed only 32 since. He didn't get a huge run against Florida on Saturday, but he was out there, mostly in passing situations, and Georgia recorded its best pressure rate (36%) since Week 3 against South Carolina. As good as offenses like Tennessee's are, a team's best-laid plans go awry if the middle of its offensive line is getting caved in. If Carter rounds into form moving forward, Georgia's disruption rates will climb quickly.
1. Ohio State
SP+ and FPI rankings: 1st and 1stOdds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 54.8% (last week: 37.2%)
What they did in Week 9: defeated Penn State 44-31. It feels like every OSU-PSU game is a 13-point Buckeyes win, but this one followed a unique formula. Penn State led 21-16 with nine minutes left, but Ohio State scored four touchdowns in about six minutes -- two scored by running back TreVeyon Henderson, two set up or scored by defensive end J.T. Tuimoloau -- to tally its sixth straight win in the series and 10th in 11 years.
Week 10 opponent: at Northwestern (SP+ win probability: 99%). The last time these teams met, Ohio State won a gritty and competitive game, 22-10, in the 2020 Big Ten championship game. Northwestern has won two Big Ten games since then.
November X factor: WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba. I should probably pick a defensive player here, using the same logic I did with TCU and Tennessee. Ohio State's offense is brilliant, and while the defense has been more successful than either the Horned Frogs' or the Vols', it verified its status as the team's weaker unit in allowing 482 yards and 31 points to Penn State on Saturday. Tuimoloau qualified for every definition of "X factor" on Saturday, so he would have worked. So would have someone from an aggressive secondary who is efficient but prone to a big play here and there.
Let's look at this from a different angle, though: What if the offense is just too good for anything else to matter. Like Tennessee, Ohio State has put up absurd offensive numbers despite missing its perceived No. 1 receiver -- Cedric Tillman for the Vols, Smith-Njigba for the Buckeyes. But while Tillman was great for Tennessee in 2021 (1,081 yards, 12 TDs), Smith-Njigba was simply the nation's best receiver, basically replicating Tillman's per-catch stats with nearly 50% more catches. Smith-Njigba is one of the best slot receivers college football has produced, and he has caught just five passes for 43 yards this season thanks to lingering hamstring issues. After returning for some reps against Iowa two weeks ago, he was out again on Saturday.
Without him, Ohio State hasn't missed a beat. C.J. Stroud once again ranks first in Total QBR, and Emeka Egbuka and Marvin Harrison Jr. are combining to average an absurd 11.9 catches, 196.4 yards and 2.1 touchdowns per game. Wideout Julian Fleming and tight end Cade Stover come through when asked too. But what if Smith-Njigba is able to return to form by the Michigan game 3½ weeks from now? What if Ohio State, which already ranks first in both SP+ and FPI, basically adds the nation's best receiver to its two-deep right before the season's most important game(s)? That could be the biggest difference-maker of the season.
