Random Trends

GoSooners · Aug 10, 2015

No Coke said:
Also hasn't had a losing ATS season since returning to Kansas State.

Oh and he's 17-1 ATS against Kansas. And only 2 of those 17 have been covers with an ATS margin of less than 9. Can't see that changing much this year.

Snyder makes it a point to give Kansas a good drubbing every year because the Jayhawks are their main in-state JUCO recruiting rival. Since Chuckhouse Charlie sold KU up the river, KSU is probably good for at least the next couple of years, or until Snyder retires (again).

sendacash · Aug 10, 2015

I was somewhat surprised to read that K-State has the Big 12's best record over the last 3 years at (27-9). Another interesting stat, from the Marc Lawrence Playbook, Since 1990, Kansas State is 173-5 when leading at the half, including 47 wins in a row - the nations longest streak.

Salsantorre · Aug 10, 2015

cloverleaf said:
Here's a trend GS that makes your point about "common sense" use.

**Air Force is 1-9 ATS in games after facing Navy and Army since 2010.
Common sense tell one there's a let down after two of the most important
games on the Falcons schedule. That's the type reinforcement I look for.

This is total BS. You have to be careful when regurgitating crap like this. Going back to the 2009-2010 season they are 5-5 ats in this situation. I thought this sounded funny so I checked it out. Be careful people.

BigdaddyQH · Aug 10, 2015

Starting with the 2010 season, the Air Force is 2-3 after Navy (0-5 ATS) and 2-3 after the Army (1-4 ATS). So the correct statement is that the Air Force is 1-9 ATS after those games. Sal, you had better learn to read and add before you go mouthing off. If you care to challenge me (a foolish thing to do) list the spreads and the results starting in 2010.

BigdaddyQH · Aug 10, 2015

sendacash said:
I was somewhat surprised to read that K-State has the Big 12's best record over the last 3 years at (27-9). Another interesting stat, from the Marc Lawrence Playbook, Since 1990, Kansas State is 173-5 when leading at the half, including 47 wins in a row - the nations longest streak.

The stat is correct, IF you do not count bowl games, where Snyder and Company are 1-2 in the last 3 years and 1-4 in the last 5 (1-5 S/U since Snyder's return).

Salsantorre · Aug 10, 2015

BigdaddyQH said:
Starting with the 2010 season, the Air Force is 2-3 after Navy (0-5 ATS) and 2-3 after the Army (1-4 ATS). So the correct statement is that the Air Force is 1-9 ATS after those games. Sal, you had better learn to read and add before you go mouthing off. If you care to challenge me (a foolish thing to do) list the spreads and the results starting in 2010.

this is correct, I don't know what I was looking at. Sorry

sendacash · Aug 12, 2015

UCLA has lost 7 straight to Stanford and 6 straight to Oregon.

GoSooners · Aug 13, 2015

I found Rolltide's system plays thread from last year. RT, I hope you don't mind me bumping this up.

http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=996373&

rolltide · Aug 14, 2015

GoSooners said:
I found Rolltide's system plays thread from last year. RT, I hope you don't mind me bumping this up.

http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=996373&

i'm gonna start one today or tomorrow that will be much easier to read. i'm about halfway through cleaning everything up but i am happy to post what i have so far. trying to rate them from 1-5 based on history and current relevancy (aka has it kept its form throughout the years).

BigdaddyQH · Aug 14, 2015

sendacash said:
UCLA has lost 7 straight to Stanford and 6 straight to Oregon.

UCLA's biggest weakness is their inablilty to defeat Stanford, a team they play every year. With Oregon they only play twice in four years.

sendacash · Aug 14, 2015

BigdaddyQH said:
UCLA's biggest weakness is their inablilty to defeat Stanford, a team they play every year. With Oregon they only play twice in four years.

I was watching a CFB preview show on ESPN and they were interviewing several UCLA players at a table. So the guy asked them who their biggest games are against this year? Oddly enough they guys who answered did not bring up USC (maybe because they have beat the Trojans 3 times in a row?), but they mentioned Stanford and I believe Arizona State.

GoSooners · Aug 14, 2015

I don't know how much this applies since it's going from one season to another, but Alabama is a perfect 9-0 UNDER following a loss since Nick Saban took over in 2007.

rolltide · Aug 14, 2015

GoSooners said:
I don't know how much this applies since it's going from one season to another, but Alabama is a perfect 9-0 UNDER following a loss since Nick Saban took over in 2007.

only applies for normal rest:

season > 2006 and team = ALA and p:L and ...

games	ATS W - L- P (marg, %win)	Avg Line	OU W - L- P (marg, %over)	Avg Total	SU W - L- P (marg, %win)	SDQL
2	2-0-0 (17.00, 100.0%)	-7.0	2-0-0 (3.25, 100.0%)	51.8	2-0-0 (24.00, 100.0%)	rest = 35
1	0-1-0 (-30.50, 0.0%)	-16.5	1-0-0 (24.50, 100.0%)	51.5	0-1-0 (-14.00, 0.0%)	rest = 32
1	0-1-0 (-23.00, 0.0%)	-9.0	1-0-0 (2.50, 100.0%)	45.5	0-1-0 (-14.00, 0.0%)	rest = 26
10	1-9-0 (-6.50, 10.0%)	-14.5	0-9-0 (-15.00, 0.0%)	49.6	6-4-0 (8.00, 60.0%)	rest = 6

Showing 1 to 4 of 4 entries

cloverleaf · Aug 15, 2015

Something has to give.....or does it?

Texas is 15-0 straight up in their first game of the season. This year is Notre Dame who are
8-9 point favorites.

russ1945 · Aug 15, 2015

As far as trends go opening games may not fit the bill in all cases. Looks at Texas. In the past 10 years The Longhorns won those 10 games by any average of 36.8 points. No trend there that applies to playing a top 25 team. Those 10 opponents included North Texas (twice), New Mexico St, Wyoming, Rice (twice), ULM. FAU, Ark St (score was 20-13), and La Laf. So trends are what they are but not all situations fit the bill. I do not see Texas beating ND by 36 points, ain't happening lol.

Another thing about trends in general. You have to consider who the present HC is and how he fits trends that existed at his current school before his arrival.

cloverleaf · Aug 15, 2015

russ1945 said:
As far as trends go opening games may not fit the bill in all cases. Looks at Texas. In the past 10 years The Longhorns won those 10 games by any average of 36.8 points. No trend there that applies to playing a top 25 team. Those 10 opponents included North Texas (twice), New Mexico St, Wyoming, Rice (twice), ULM. FAU, Ark St (score was 20-13), and La Laf. So trends are what they are but not all situations fit the bill. I do not see Texas beating ND by 36 points, ain't happening lol.

Another thing about trends in general. You have to consider who the present HC is and how he fits trends that existed at his current school before his arrival.

Agree!

NoCoke · Aug 16, 2015

Came across this in one of Dennis Dodd's recent articles:

The teams that are the most offensively efficient -- most points per minute -- win championships, Bartoo contends. He says the last seven national title winners have been in the top 10 in that category. Five of the last seven were No. 1.

Oregon was 1, OSU 6, FSU 24, and Bama 26.

cloverleaf · Aug 17, 2015

What I call a pretty impressive trend..........

.........Toledo Rockets are 17-3 ATS at home off a double digit loss the previous game.

Pretty damn strong in my book....just saying........

cloverleaf · Aug 19, 2015

Rainbow dogs bite opening week??

Colorado travels to Hawaii opening week as a 7.5 point favorite knowing the Rainbows are 9-0 ATS as a non-conference home dog 8 points or less.

Buffs better beware of the dogs..........