Randizzle's NCAAF Week 6 *(20-5-2 80% YTD)*

[Randizzle14]

Update Game 3

Game 4
--------
IOWA (3 - 2) at MICHIGAN ST (4 - 1)
Week 6 Saturday, 10/4/2008 12:00 PM

Situations:
Play On - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (IOWA) - after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses against opponent after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins.
(57-22 over the last 10 seasons.) (72.2%)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (40-39 over the last 10 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 6.8
The average score in these games was: Team 26.1, Opponent 27.1 (Average point differential = -0.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 39 (49.4% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (1-0).

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=matchupHeader>All games in this series since 1992</TD></TR><TR><TD><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class="matchupCells Text">IOWA is 8-3 against the spread versus MICHIGAN ST since 1992</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>Line Movement:</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE id=gridtable><TBODY><TR id=e141496 ondblclick=highlightRow(this) style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e2e2e2" onclick="testHit('e141496', event)"><TD id=info style="TEXT-ALIGN: center" width=50>Info

</TD><TD id=score width=62>10/4
11:00A

</TD><TD id=team width=169>321 Iowa
322 Michigan State

</TD><TD id=bets width=56>34983

</TD><TD id=spreadpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=50>40%
60%

</TD><TD id=mlpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=50>41%
59%

</TD><TD id=parlaypct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=50>23%
77%

</TD><TD id=oupct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=50>55%
45%

</TD><TD class=linebox style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #faf39e" width=75>44 -110
-8-110

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Personally i feel this line is inflated due to the home loss by Iowa last week to northwestern. Hawkeyes should be able to contain Ringer and force the pass. If they do, they may win this game outright.

I'm Taking Iowa +7 (WINNER) +3 Units :toast:

 

[Inactiongirl]

People really are unbelievable. Keep up the good work. !!!!

 

[styz19]

Nice work Randizzle, I enjoy your writeups and have gotten many of the lines that you have posted so keep up the good work and I hope the haters dont run you out of here because there are many people including myself who look forward to your plays

styz19

 

[Preussen]

I'm confused...are you paying me?? Or is this courtesy?? I'm certain that today is the first time any lines are in question and by a half point. Honestly im not sure why i'm replying to this right now. I have provided you with a 32-8 Posted record, and over 60 units in 5 weeks JUST BECAUSE!! I enjoy interacting with this community and believe not only that I can contribute, but that I can learn.

Preussen- If you don't like my plays, lines, odds, wins, or the way I cap games then my best advice is this: Don't click on my thread. Period.

What is your problem, why these aggressive responses?

I haven't checked your earlier picks, I did it for the first time today and noticed that four out of five lines were off which prompted my remark about that, especially since this clearly violates the official request of the forum moderators to use widely available lines.
If that's is already enough to make you go ballistic then perhaps you should try and check your temper a little. If you only expect blind praise you might be in the wrong forum.

 

[Broke]

good shit Soumi

 

[Randizzle14]

Like I said

What is your problem, why these aggressive responses?

I haven't checked your earlier picks, I did it for the first time today and noticed that four out of five lines were off which prompted my remark about that, especially since this clearly violates the official request of the forum moderators to use widely available lines.
If that's is already enough to make you go ballistic then perhaps you should try and check your temper a little. If you only expect blind praise you might be in the wrong forum.

No temper here bud, just don't understand all the questioning. I apologize if you could not get the line you wanted. I am in no way upset, just don't prefer to waste my time typing responses to redundant questions when I could be analyzing more games and swapping info and ideas with other people on this forum.

Let's end this discussion and try and use our efforts positively.

Good Luck

 

[Randizzle14]

Thanks Bud

Nice work Randizzle, I enjoy your writeups and have gotten many of the lines that you have posted so keep up the good work and I hope the haters dont run you out of here because there are many people including myself who look forward to your plays

styz19

Noone will bother me. Im here to make money and other people's criticisms won't change my goal. Thanks for your kind words. GL:toast:

 

[theboy1dur]

What is your problem, why these aggressive responses?

I haven't checked your earlier picks, I did it for the first time today and noticed that four out of five lines were off which prompted my remark about that, especially since this clearly violates the official request of the forum moderators to use widely available lines.
If that's is already enough to make you go ballistic then perhaps you should try and check your temper a little. If you only expect blind praise you might be in the wrong forum.

Get of his dick ... lets the mods do there job, no one else has a problem..

 

[AlistairCookie]

I haven't checked your earlier picks, I did it for the first time today and noticed that four out of five lines were off .

Well, I'm all for holding people accountable, but I got the Stan/ND and Kentucky lines at exactly what he posted at 10:33 a.m. est at BetUs...so for me 2/5 were correct, and 2/2 that I checked.

 

[sparticus]

Randizzle, nice hit on stanf & also the under, nice work.gl

 

[AlistairCookie]

he didn't hit the under

 

[sparticus]

Ali, He didn't but i did. gl

 

[MakeitRainon'em]

hey ran...what do you think about maryland -13 and tulsa -16?

 

[Randizzle14]

Game 7

I'm Taking N. Illinois +17 -110 at Bodog at 5:35 p.m.

Don't feel like a write up....Watching games.

:toast:

 

[Randizzle14]

hey ran...what do you think about maryland -13 and tulsa -16?

Not playing either, but my thoughts would be Maryland -13 and Tulsa -16. hope that helps, im staying away from both of those.:toast:

 

[Randizzle14]

Game 3 Update

Game 3
--------
STANFORD (3 - 2) at NOTRE DAME (3 - 1)
Week 6 Saturday, 10/4/2008 2:30 PM

In short, I'm not a believer in Note Dame yet. They have played a bunch of cream puffs with the exception of Michigan who is nothing like the Michigan of the past. Additionally, the Rushing offense AND defense is better for Stanford which leads me to believe that they will control the pace of the game.

Play Against - A home team (NOTRE DAME) - good team, winning 60-80% or more of their games on the season, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences.
(36-14 over the last 10 seasons.) (72%)

STANFORD is 11-0 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

6 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992.

<TABLE id=gridtable><TBODY><TR id=e141529 ondblclick=highlightRow(this) style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff" onclick="testHit('e141529', event)"><TD id=info style="TEXT-ALIGN: center" width=50>Info

</TD><TD id=score width=62>10/4
1:30P

</TD><TD id=team width=169>343 Stanford
344 Notre Dame

</TD><TD id=bets width=56>17229

</TD><TD id=spreadpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=50>30%
70%

</TD><TD id=mlpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=50>54%
46%

</TD><TD id=parlaypct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=50>16%
84%

</TD><TD id=oupct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=50>56%
44%

</TD><TD class=linebox style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #faf39e" width=75>48 -110
-7.5-110

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=matchupHeader>Here is a summary of past ATS and Over/Under results in games where the closing line and closing total were similar to:</TD></TR><TR><TD class=matchupSubHeader>Closing Line = -7 , Closing Total = 47.5</TD></TR><TR><TD class="matchupCells Text">Since 1992, the road underdog has covered the spread 24 times, while the home favorite covered the spread 9 times.
Edge against the spread=STANFORD

I Love the Side and Total in this game, so i'm doing something i've never done. Making them both a play.

I'm Taking Stanford +7.5 (WINNER) +3 Units
I'm Taking Stan/ND UNDER 48 (loss) -3.3 Units

Broke even on this game. excluding juice.


</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[Randizzle14]

Ok Guys, here is what I have come up with. I fear that I may have analyzed too much, but hopefully not. Again as a reminder, I am still hitting at about an 81% clip....law of averages is not in my favor right now but hopfully we can defy the odds and continue at this pace.

That being said let's get down to business.

Game 1
--------
KENTUCKY (4 - 0) at ALABAMA (5 - 0)
Week 6 Saturday, 10/4/2008 3:30 PM

After destroying Georgia, the Crimson Tide are back home where they are 6-20-2 ATS hosting SEC foes. Alabama is 12-16-1 against the spread off a win and has a bye next week. Bama bettors hope coach Saban can improve on their 5-14-1 ATS record as double digit SEC favorites. The Tide has never lost to Kentucky at home in 20 previous meetings (19-0-1).

Some Situations:
Play Under - Any team against the total (ALABAMA) - after scoring and allowing 30 pts or more last game against opponent after scoring 37 points or more last game.
(64-25 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.9%)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0).

Play Under - All teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (KENTUCKY) - in a game involving two excellent defensive teams (<=16 PPG), in conference games.
(38-10 over the last 5 seasons.) (79.2%)

KENTUCKY is 19-8 ATS after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers since 1992.

ALABAMA is 6-19 ATS in home games after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers since 1992.

Line Movement: #Bets ATS ML Parlay O/U Open
<TABLE id=gridtable><TBODY><TR id=e141556 ondblclick=highlightRow(this) style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e2e2e2" onclick="testHit('e141556', event)"><TD id=info style="TEXT-ALIGN: center" width=50>Info


</TD><TD id=score width=62>10/4
2:30P


</TD><TD id=team width=169>361 Kentucky
362 Alabama


</TD><TD id=bets width=56>21334


</TD><TD id=spreadpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=50>42%
58%


</TD><TD id=mlpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=50>18%
82%


</TD><TD id=parlaypct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=50>23%
77%


</TD><TD id=oupct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=50>65%
35%


</TD><TD class=linebox style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #faf39e" width=75>44.5 -110
-17-110


</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Game is down to 15.5 or 15 at most places, Bodog has it right now at Bama -16.

Injury news: Found this by "Allen Smith"

As for injuries, WR Mike McCoy (hamstring) and TE Preston Dial (knee scope) both have been practicing in no-contact jerseys. Saban still lists them as “questionable” but it looks more and more doubtful that they will play Saturday. Mark Ingram received a bruised knee and left the Georgia game early. He appears to be at full strength and ready for the game.

Interesting Note: Kentucky's defense is allowing an avg. of 5 PPG this season.

Taking all of that into account:

I'm Taking Kentucky Wildcats +16 :toast:

(WINNER) + 3 Units

​

 

[MonsterBuck]

You're on fire man

 

[Randizzle14]

Final Play will be

Wisconsin +2:toast:

am leaving..will be back tonight.

 

[MistaFlava]

you're on fire bro, fuck the haters when they show up, love your work.