Randizzle's NCAAF Week 6 *(20-5-2 80% YTD)*

[Randizzle14]

Wednesday Night

OPINION ONLY!! I will not be wagering on this game simply because I feel there are better investments on the board. But, for all you action junkies, I will give you my best assumptions.

Game
------
LOUISIANA TECH (2 - 1) at BOISE ST (3 - 0)
Week 6 Wednesday, 10/1/2008 8:00 PM

Game Notes: Boise State sprung the big upset at Oregon and starts WAC action by hosting Louisiana Tech. The Broncos are 7-0 ATS at home off an upset win as a dog. Boise State is 16-0 and 12-4 ATS facing WAC foes at home since 2004. The Bulldogs look to be improved after beating Miss. State in opener. Louisiana Tech is 12-26 ATS in road games in the first half of the season and 5-19 ATS as away dog the last 5 years. Neither team has played since Sept. 20 and though Boise State has won 6 straight in series, they have covered just 3. The Broncos are16-4 ATS in HGs after scoring 24+ points in the 1st half of last game.

LOUISIANA TECH is 1-9 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging >=5.9 yards/play over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LOUISIANA TECH 12.9, OPPONENT 48.2

BOISE ST is 12-3 ATS vs. poor passing teams with a completion pct. of 48% or worse. since 1992.

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=matchupHeader>
Here is a summary of past over/under results in games where the total movement was similar to:

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=matchupSubHeader>Opening Total = 53, Closing Total = 56</TD></TR><TR><TD class="matchupCells Text">Since 1992, 21 games went under the total, while 6 games went over the total.
Edge against the total=Under

If I HAD to wager, I would take Boise St. -24, and UNDER 56

GL
:toast:

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[Randizzle14]

Wednesday Update

OPINION:
I would take Boise St. -24 (WINNER)
Boise St/LA Tech UNDER 56 (WINNER)


Sheesh, I need to start playing my opinions as well. Felt there was not enough distinct info in order to make it a play. Oh well.


Wagered Record (21-5-2 +54 Units YTD)
Opinions Record (10-2-0 YTD)

Overall Posted Record (31-7-2 82% YTD)

:cripwalk:

 

[Chowder]

you are on hit randizzle!!!

 

[w8lifterguy]

Always good to feel confident in non-plays as well. Looking forward to a huge weekend from you...best of luck throughout the week..

 

[313Camper]

Get that money...

Keep it up g-thug. U been on the money every since. Great info!!!!

 

[badbyzdmx]

you are enfuego, unfortunatly i have to leave for work early and missed your play so i lost as i played the over earlier in the day. can you pleaseeee post your picks for thursday as early as possible so i can put my bet in before work!

thanks man and stay hot

 

[gmoney72]

dang. Nice pick. Last time I checked yesterday was around 6pm eastern time and nothing was posted yet. Should of looked one last time. Nicely done again.

 

[MistaFlava]

awesome shit dizzle

 

[shizzle]

nice work randizzle!

 

[Randizzle14]

Thanks Bud

you are enfuego, unfortunatly i have to leave for work early and missed your play so i lost as i played the over earlier in the day. can you pleaseeee post your picks for thursday as early as possible so i can put my bet in before work!

thanks man and stay hot

I understand its probably too late and you are at work, apologies. But I will do my best to post my plays as early as possible in the future. Sorry you missed out last night. With school and work, its tough to make the time for this.

GL :toast:

 

[mac114]

It always amazes me when someone is getting something for nothing and they don't realize the work and time that goes into capping. They still can find a way to bitch.
badbyzdmx you may not get all the plays that Randizzle put out. Neither do I. Just be grateful he is willing to post them here at no charge.

Randizzle keep up the good work and thank you for $$$$ you made for all of us.

 

[Randizzle14]

Thursday

Game 3
--------
MEMPHIS (2 - 3) at UAB (1 - 4)
Week 6 Thursday, 10/2/2008 8:00 PM

Both of these teams are terrible, and with terrible teams you can almost guarantee that nothing in this game is predictable. That being said i'm still going to give this one a shot.

The most obvious thing that stuck out to me here is the fact that Memphis ia averaging 4.1 YPR in Away games and also allowing 5.7 YPR by opponents on the road. Meanwhile UAB is averaging 6.8 YPR!!! at home and allowing 4.1 YPR to opponents.

Additionally,

<TABLE id=gridtable><TBODY><TR id=e141475 ondblclick=highlightRow(this) style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e2e2e2" onclick="testHit('e141475', event)"><TD id=score width=62>10/2
7:00P

</TD><TD id=team width=169>307 Memphis
308 UAB

</TD><TD id=bets width=56>24542

</TD><TD id=spreadpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=50>59%
41%

</TD><TD id=mlpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=50>69%
31%

</TD><TD id=parlaypct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=50>62%
38%

</TD><TD id=oupct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=50>52%
48%

</TD><TD class=linebox style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #faf39e" width=75>-4.5-110
59 -110

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

As you can see, this game opened at Memphis -4.5, it has since dropped to -3.5 and eve -3 at some books. That being said the %'s of the publlic are on Memphis ATS and more heavily on the ML. Which means the actual "MONEY" is on UAB this game causing it to drop. From what I have looked up, I see no significant injuries to UAB's Players.

MEMPHIS is 7-22 ATS after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.
The average score was MEMPHIS 25.7, OPPONENT 26.1
UAB is 17-5 ATS after playing 2 straight non-conference games since 1992.
The average score was UAB 23.9, OPPONENT 22.8

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=matchupHeader>All games in this series since 1992</TD></TR><TR><TD><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class="matchupCells Text">UAB is 6-2 against the spread versus MEMPHIS since 1992</TD></TR><TR><TD class="matchupCells Text">UAB is 7-3 straight up against MEMPHIS since 1992</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class="matchupCells Text">The average spread in these games was MEMPHIS favored by 2.9 points.</TD></TR><TR><TD class="matchupCells Text">The average total in these games was 51.9 points.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
I'm Taking UAB +3.5 (2 Units) :toast:

Note* I am currently hitting at an 82% clip which is great and all, but the law of averages will eventually bring me down to my normal 65% clip I achieve on a yearly basis. Just informing you all.



</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[MonsterBuck]

Like it very much RanD, GL :toast:

 

[MemphisRaines]

I'm with you on this one Randizzle, good luck brotha...

 

[shizzle]

BOL! stay on fiyah

 

[DaiJoe]

bol bro

 

[Randizzle14]

Thanks Guys

Hoping we cash tonight....Still trying to pick my spots for this weekend. Want to keep a limit of 5 plays on Saturday, but ther are SO MANY great lines on the board. Anyway, GL :toast:

 

[ivan722]

Rand are you leaning either way in the last game tonight (Utah -12.5 & Oregon St.)?

%^_

 

[Randizzle14]

im not touching it

Rand are you leaning either way in the last game tonight (Utah -12.5 & Oregon St.)?

%^_

If I had to lean a way, I would probably say Oregan St. +12.5

A few interesting things with line movement...

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=matchupHeader>Here is a summary of past ATS and Over/Under results in games where the closing line and closing total were similar to:</TD></TR><TR><TD class=matchupSubHeader>Closing Line = -11.5, Closing Total = 53</TD></TR><TR><TD class="matchupCells Text">Since 1992, the road underdog has covered the spread 10 times, while the home favorite covered the spread 3 times.
Edge against the spread=OREGON ST

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=matchupHeader>Here is a summary of past results against the spread in games where the line movement was similar to:</TD></TR><TR><TD class=matchupSubHeader>Opening Line = -8, Closing Line = -11.5</TD></TR><TR><TD class="matchupCells Text">Since 1992, the road underdog has covered the spread 17 times, while the home favorite covered the spread 6 times.
Edge against the spread=OREGON ST

And if you still arent sure, I would reccomend playing the under if you must.

Best advice is STAY AWAY!!! :toast:
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[ivan722]

Thanks Randizzle14, much obliged and will take your advice on this game.

%^_