Question on hedging a futures bet

[Creeg]

I have, what’s for me, a pretty large wager on the Houston Astros to win the AL pennant. Made the bet a week before the playoffs started and got 12-1. Haven’t hedged anything yet but, I think they’ll have a hard time with the winner of Tampa/New York. I know they are rolling right now and scoring runs but, Dusty baker is, well, an over rated manager (imo) to say the least. Fact is, betting on dusty to win the big game has been the biggest loser in recent memory.

I’ve thought about how to hedge and really, it’s a decision between 1) just buying the Tampa/New York winner for the series and taking a sure profit or 2) waiting to see how the series shakes out and betting against Houston when they face elimination. I mean, Houston could roll the Tampa/New York winner 4-0 or 4-1 and I could win the big bet without hedging at all if I choose option 2. Of course, it could go the other way and they could get down 3-0 then I’m hedging game 4, 5, 6 (worst case scenario) and really cutting into the end profit.

cant decide. What would you do?

 

[Dr.Love]

Depends. Do you really need the money? If so, I’d recommend hedging some.

If not, gamble away. As we stand, you will have a great ALCS series price on Houston. Don’t piss that away.

 

[Creeg]

Depends. Do you really need the money? If so, I’d recommend hedging some.

If not, gamble away. As we stand, you will have a great ALCS series price on Houston. Don’t piss that away.

yeah true. Other thing is. If the yanks win tonight, they have to spend gerrit Cole so, that means we’d see less of him than NY would want. What to do...?

 

[crudebar]

Unless you bet more than you can afford to lose or this money is an absolute necessity, don't ever ever hedge. It will only end up costing you money in the long run.

A hedge in almost all circumstances is only upping the house advantage.

 

[Creeg]

Unless you bet more than you can afford to lose or this money is an absolute necessity, don't ever ever hedge. It will only end up costing you money in the long run.

A hedge in almost all circumstances is only upping the house advantage.

yeah but...in Dusty I do not trusty.

 

[CHOPTALK]

Unless you bet more than you can afford to lose or this money is an absolute necessity, don't ever ever hedge. It will only end up costing you money in the long run.

A hedge in almost all circumstances is only upping the house advantage.

This is pretty much true most of the time

 

[crudebar]

yeah but...in Dusty I do not trusty.

Then what made you bet it in the first place. Making a bet with the intention of hedging later is also in almost all circumstances a -ev play.

You bet it i am assuming you believed it could win. I actually was going to take Houston also but got scared off at the last minute reading how this houston team wasn't good and how these players had no joy in this season nor would they in the play offs. You were correct and they(myself included) were wrong.

I would like Houston over N.Y. but would favor Tampa over Houston. Tampa was actually my pick to win the W.S.

I actually like Dusty as a manager. Everywhere he goes he gets his team to the play offs. In baseball, outside of this season, getting into the play offs is the difficult part(you have to be actually very good just to get in, unlike other sports), and the play offs in baseball are basically a crap shot. Everyone that gets in has a chance to win the world series.

 

[HarryCaray]

Would not hedge in this spot. If Houston wins game one I'd consider a small wager on the other side. If not oh well.

 

[Mr_Mark]

I like your #2 option, I think it is the safest to still win your bet big and lets you only hedge IF you need to.

2) waiting to see how the series shakes out and betting against Houston when they face elimination. I mean, Houston could roll the Tampa/New York winner 4-0 or 4-1 and I could win the big bet without hedging at all if I choose option 2. Of course, it could go the other way and they could get down 3-0 then I’m hedging game 4, 5, 6 (worst case scenario) and really cutting into the end profit.

 

[Creeg]

Thanks for the input guys. Appreciate it

 

[Creeg]

Then what made you bet it in the first place.

a fair question. Well, i figured the players would rally around the “everyone hates us” mantra. I knew these guys could hit. The reason the odds were so juicy is they had no verlander but, I watched the box scores the last few weeks and some younger arms really stepped up. Dusty is a huge negative in my opinion. Yes he gets teams to the playoffs but he can’t win the big game. He never has anyway. So, yes I did make the bet thinking I’d hedge if they got to the ALCS. Now i’m debating if I should.

 

[Dr.Love]

a fair question. Well, i figured the players would rally around the “everyone hates us” mantra.

Whatever the reason for their success, the fact is it's been working. They are playing well.

You believed this back then when you made the bet. No reason to bail on that reasoning now.

 

[FairWarning]

Then what made you bet it in the first place. Making a bet with the intention of hedging later is also in almost all circumstances a -ev play.

I play a lot of these, you play them to make money, even on a longer shot hedge. Something like a Dodgers future at +525 I'm letting it ride, especially with the Yankees out. I also have Heat futures at +2800 and +3000, I'll consider hedging some now. I get your point Crudebar as some hedge too soon.

 

[Creeg]

Tampa winning will make hedging easier

 

[HarryCaray]

I’m holding a future on Tampa to win the AL
may the best man win

 

[Creeg]

Fuck me.

 

[Mr_Mark]

PLan B time - make that money. Get the hedge rolling

 

[Creeg]

I’m losing my ass here. What a fucking disaster.

 

[SunDodger]

Did you bet on Houston at all in their series wins against Minnesota or Oakland?

 

[crudebar]

You guys with the hedging. It's simply not good practice and a waste of mental energy. It's like buying insurance in blackjack, sure you feel good when it hits, but in the long run its costing you money. Hedging is buying back at a premium. Do you guys also do this on all your straight wagers? Team up 15 at the half so you buy out on the other side?

This game is about the sum of money you win, not about the number of wagers that show a profit. I hope people on here understand that last sentence.

As i said earlier i had Tampa to win the WS have never thought for a second to hedge anything. I believe in them, they are winning, why would one ever bail or give back a cent in +ev. It's hard enough to win at this game let alone give back a percentage to the books on your hits. Now sure, if a book had the Dodgers +300 to win this series then i'll hedge out.