Question on AAV value's for players...please look

[CADILLACJACK]

Always trying to find an edge......is anyone familiar with how AAV works for players?? I've always done snake drafts never any auction drafts....is there an advantage to a player who has a high AAV which is what the price is for auction drafts?? For example Kyler Murray's AAV caught my eye he's going for $29!! That's one behind Mahomes! But in normal rankings he's in the 17-19 range. Because Murray cost so much and is unproven does that possibly give him an edge? Is it worth considering him because his AAV is so high? To me being that high of a cost for a guy unproven would make me think he's going to do more than expected.....he's high cost for a reason

I saw many unproven players who are not ranked high but have high AAV's.....Josh Jacobs, Sony Michel, Miles Sanders

Joe Mixon has a higher AAV than Kamara and Zeke, but ranked much lower....


Does any of this mean anything or am i over thinking this?? Any thoughts would be greatly appreciated

 

[CADILLACJACK]

Here's another weird one.....Cris Carson is going for $8 while Rashaad Penny is $9.....Carson has been said to be the clear cut starter and supposed to have a great season. Why is he only $8?? Why does Penny cost more when he's the back up? Carson being so cheap tells me he's not going to meet expectations.....

You get what you pay for is my thinking in all this.....could you use this strategy in snake drafts??

 

[Michelangelo]

Would like to assist but I've never been in an auction type draft.

Good luck with that.

 

[CADILLACJACK]

Thanks for the reply....I'm not actually in an auction draft....was trying to see that info would be useful for snake drafts


Let's look at the Eagles RB's......you have Jordan Howard at 6$.....Miles Sanders at $18! It's like going to the store and either buying the store brand for cheaper or the more expensive brand for more, but you get better ingredients and better quality. Or going to Arco for gas compared to Shell....cheap gas fucks your car up good gas doesn't. That's how I'm looking at this.....you get what you pay for....there's a reason these players are more expensive! At some point Sanders will have that job! He may be good pick up in your draft instead of Howard

 

[mountain]

Here's another weird one.....Cris Carson is going for $8 while Rashaad Penny is $9.....Carson has been said to be the clear cut starter and supposed to have a great season. Why is he only $8?? Why does Penny cost more when he's the back up? Carson being so cheap tells me he's not going to meet expectations.....

You get what you pay for is my thinking in all this.....could you use this strategy in snake drafts??

I am in 2 auction draft leagues, 1 serious and 1 at work. The serious league is a $500 buy in with winner take all. I went back to look at last year's draft to make sure I am accurate. Each league is different but this should be close:

You have $200 to create your entire team. Last year someone paid $70 for David Johnson, leaving him $130 to fill the rest of his team. Gurley went for $68 and Barkley went for $62. Safe to say that you are going to spend at least 25% of your budget on a key wr or rb. Like snake drafts, qb's are drafted at lower prices. The guy that finished in last place spent $22 on Aaron Rodgers. You can get a good qb for $8-$12 (Brees went for $8 and Goff went for $10).

You also get $100 free agency money. Goes pretty fast if you have someone go down in an injury. The $100 has to last all year but we have the option of paying cash to replenish your account up to the buy in amount ($500).

I like the auction draft but it is nerve racking. You feel pressure to fill a position but your budget is always in play. It's ESPN league and there is 10 seconds between bids so just when you think you have the player you want, some dick upsets your bid, you then have 10 seconds to upset his bid.

I target players with a certain budget but in 7 years I have not stayed within my budget so I had to make cuts in other areas. I'm a tightass in real life so it kills me to blow 30% of my budget on 1 player but that's the way it usually shakes out. Won it in 2013 and cut a deal in the finals of 2016 so we split the pot.

Fun but my wife absolutely hates this time of year

 

[CADILLACJACK]

I am in 2 auction draft leagues, 1 serious and 1 at work. The serious league is a $500 buy in with winner take all. I went back to look at last year's draft to make sure I am accurate. Each league is different but this should be close:

You have $200 to create your entire team. Last year someone paid $70 for David Johnson, leaving him $130 to fill the rest of his team. Gurley went for $68 and Barkley went for $62. Safe to say that you are going to spend at least 25% of your budget on a key wr or rb. Like snake drafts, qb's are drafted at lower prices. The guy that finished in last place spent $22 on Aaron Rodgers. You can get a good qb for $8-$12 (Brees went for $8 and Goff went for $10).

You also get $100 free agency money. Goes pretty fast if you have someone go down in an injury. The $100 has to last all year but we have the option of paying cash to replenish your account up to the buy in amount ($500).

I like the auction draft but it is nerve racking. You feel pressure to fill a position but your budget is always in play. It's ESPN league and there is 10 seconds between bids so just when you think you have the player you want, some dick upsets your bid, you then have 10 seconds to upset his bid.

I target players with a certain budget but in 7 years I have not stayed within my budget so I had to make cuts in other areas. I'm a tightass in real life so it kills me to blow 30% of my budget on 1 player but that's the way it usually shakes out. Won it in 2013 and cut a deal in the finals of 2016 so we split the pot.

Fun but my wife absolutely hates this time of year

Thanks for the reply.....so in your opinion and experience with these when doing a regular snake draft...is using the players auction price a good tool to use? For example in my other post....Sony Michel is $18 ranked the #27 RB....would he be a good RB to target late in snake draft with his auction price being much higher than 80% of the RB's above him?

Basically I'm looking at to target sleepers....late round guys with high auction prices for a snake draft. The higher elite players don't really apply to this

 

[CADILLACJACK]

Oh god DJ was so bad last season....I had him also....such a BUST!! 70$!! wow.......wasn't his fault terrible O line...terrible coach...terrible QB....terrible offensive scheme....things much different this year for him he'll catch 70-80 balls!

 

[CADILLACJACK]

And Kyler Murray price is $29!! Mahomes is $30!! That has to mean something.....

 

[mountain]

Thanks for the reply.....so in your opinion and experience with these when doing a regular snake draft...is using the players auction price a good tool to use? For example in my other post....Sony Michel is $18 ranked the #27 RB....would he be a good RB to target late in snake draft with his auction price being much higher than 80% of the RB's above him?

Basically I'm looking at to target sleepers....late round guys with high auction prices for a snake draft. The higher elite players don't really apply to this

Hard to say. My work league is auction draft also but the players aren't as well informed which could skew the numbers you have. One lady is a Cam Newton fan and she would spend most of her budget to get him. It's a $40 buy in and it is mainly a social event more than anything else and a lot of homers get bought. Keep in mind, every league has a different budget and I would say with the numbers you have, the budget is probably higher. Also, a non PPR League could impact the numbers as well

Man, I am just telling you that there is no substitute for doing your own homework. I subscribe to Roto and I check out Hache's posts in here but I pretty much know the players I want on my team. Last year Johnson, L. Bell and AB were the most sought after players and you know how that turned out. 3 drafts for me next week and I am way behind so I have some work to do.

David Johnson is on my list this year but AB and L Bell aren't. Coaching change is going to help AZ and they will rely on Johnson like they did a couple of years ago. I have to tell you that I wasn't a Lamar Jackson fan until I read the article Hache posted in here. I think I can get him cheap because the guys I play with love the drop back qb. Statistically, high valued players don't do as well when they change teams like the case of AB and Leveon.

 

[CADILLACJACK]

Hard to say. My work league is auction draft also but the players aren't as well informed which could skew the numbers you have. One lady is a Cam Newton fan and she would spend most of her budget to get him. It's a $40 buy in and it is mainly a social event more than anything else and a lot of homers get bought. Keep in mind, every league has a different budget and I would say with the numbers you have, the budget is probably higher. Also, a non PPR League could impact the numbers as well

Man, I am just telling you that there is no substitute for doing your own homework. I subscribe to Roto and I check out Hache's posts in here but I pretty much know the players I want on my team. Last year Johnson, L. Bell and AB were the most sought after players and you know how that turned out. 3 drafts for me next week and I am way behind so I have some work to do.

David Johnson is on my list this year but AB and L Bell aren't. Coaching change is going to help AZ and they will rely on Johnson like they did a couple of years ago. I have to tell you that I wasn't a Lamar Jackson fan until I read the article Hache posted in here. I think I can get him cheap because the guys I play with love the drop back qb. Statistically, high valued players don't do as well when they change teams like the case of AB and Leveon.

I definitely do my own homework....this auction player price thing just caught my attention

And BTW Lamar is my super sleeper of the draft....I would absolute target him! Been doing a lot of reading on the Ravens and they are ALL IN on him! You can still get a middle tier QB and get Jackson late you will want a solid back up running QB's always big injury risk. I really like Matt Ryan as a mid round QB first...they've had some injuries on the O line preseason, but they addressed the O line in the draft and the off season so it should be improved. Falcons have 13/16 games in a dome this season!! Money!!!!

 

[mountain]

I definitely do my own homework....this auction player price thing just caught my attention

And BTW Lamar is my super sleeper of the draft....I would absolute target him! Been doing a lot of reading on the Ravens and they are ALL IN on him! You can still get a middle tier QB and get Jackson late you will want a solid back up running QB's always big injury risk. I really like Matt Ryan as a mid round QB first...they've had some injuries on the O line preseason, but they addressed the O line in the draft and the off season so it should be improved. Falcons have 13/16 games in a dome this season!! Money!!!!

I also look hard at 2nd tier wr's playing behind a superstar. Schuster, Thielen, Kupp and Fuller are a couple that come to mind from last year because the key wr gets doubled. I think Matty Ice will have a great year also. Gurley is a pass for me but someone will undoubtedly get him at a good price. I will have this narrowed down and can share more next week.

Winston is another qb that you can get late. With TB's horrible defense and Arians as coach, he could have a decent year although he would be a stash for me. Staying away from any Bears player and am actually looking at Detroit's defense/st.

 

[BrothaFreak]

im in one auction draft , but from past experience , it all depends on the league and how they spend at the draft , if the price is sky high at QB , then yeah a guy like Murray with hype will cost higher than the avg of maybe 15 to 18 .

 

[Isakpitt]

Very interesting!

 

[Isakpitt]

im in one auction draft , but from past experience , it all depends on the league and how they spend at the draft , if the price is sky high at QB , then yeah a guy like Murray with hype will cost higher than the avg of maybe 15 to 18 .

Thanks