Question for Hockey Zone (Bobby Bryde)

[Liedka]

About 10 minutes for first game tonight, I had access to these two lines:

Anah/Minn >5 +120
Anah/Minn >4.5 -130

This is a similar question to others you've addressed on hockey lines. I did think a little about taking BOTH >5 +20 and <4.5 +10, figuring the worst I do is a total on 5.

Ended up taking the >5 +20, though, as I don't like laying -30 on a total. I learned that somewhere... /infopop/emoticons/icon_wink.gif

 

think doing both was correct. know some who feel that IN THAT SPOT laying -30 could be justified, since then a 5.0 gives you the W. sometime, like today, i will do only the over 5.0+20 if it is just a lean (smaller play).

anyone laying -30 in that spot would not get an argument from me!

bb

 

[Liedka]

Very interesting....not the way I was thinking, of course. I was thinking of taking the >5 and the <4.5, thinking that I win on ANY number but 5.
My thought was that this was almost a middle where I win just about no matter what.

I decided against that approach since I would have only won +10 or +20 vs. the risk of landing on the 5 and pushing one and losing the other. The +10 (or more) guarantee wouldn't pay off (I think) since landing on 5 has a better chance of occuring than the risk.

Taking BOTH overs never occurred to me. But I see your argument. If one likes the over, take the over 5 +20, and use the >4.5 -30 as a kind of safety vs. the possibility of a push. Plus, if the >5 +20 cashes, then a tidy profit is to be had.

Thanks for your thoughts!! And all the good work you do informing those of us who love hockey but haven't really learned the betting side of the game.

 

[Liedka]

One of the books was bet365 which lets you buy or sell 1/2 goals on totals. Buy for -50 and sell for +35.

In fact, one way to look at the two totals I had was that the total was Anah/Minn >5 +20 and I could buy a half-goal for -50 to get to >4.5 -30.

I can see this option as attractive in certain situations. Selling the 1/2 goal I'm not sure about. Suppose you like the over at >5.5 -10, say. Worth it to sell a half-goal to >6 +25??
Worth it to sell a half-goal from <5 -20 to <4.5 +15?

These are kind of decisions that could drive me crazy, but I've not really thought about them much in the past.

Again, thanks for the knowledge you provide. One of the reasons I've been devoted to Shrink and the RX for the last several years!!

 

good thread in hockey forum on 12/20 "? for math majors" deals with your original question.

id have to look at that bet365 prop for totals. think it would be valuable when total is moving against you in other books and could be used sort of like a teaser. think i would never buy, but always sell. kind of like the rule of thumb for football teasers "never tease down, always up". might be something to look at when my/your total is substantailly off what the book has on board.

bb