Queen of Hearts Exploiting the NFL week #3 2014

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Damn i just now saw this thread. haha great job Thursday , get em today Queen. :toast:
 

LADY LUCK
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So....... after seeing Frohardts selections, I have a jewel that will hopefully be more tempting by the time that I wake up in the morning.

It gave in a little bit and enough for me to make a move and add it to my card today.


New England Patriots -7' 1st Half (-114) $300
 

LADY LUCK
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hahaha....WHAT? God, I hope you are not a math teacher by profession! You can not mingle the indefinite "huge" and the absolute "100%" in this manner without sacrificing coherency. Either make the statement undefined or absolute (and thereby, defined). Considering you've done research on this, like you claim, you should have access to some numbers that you can use to replace "huge" and "good".

I'll give you a hint: Find the percentage of 6pt favs who have covered a 5 point tease. Express this percentage as a decimal value. We will call this value: x. Now x^3 is the likelihood that 3 consecutive 6pt faves (teased to -1) will have a favorable outcome (covering -1, or pushing in this case). Take this new value (the likelihood of winning any given 3 team 5 pt teaser [consisting of all 6pt faves]) and multiply it by 2.85 (the multiplier Queen has been given by her book [also described as +285 expressed in decimal form]). If the output of this function is greater than 1 (the amount of money risked [in relation to 2.85]), then you would say that "generally speaking" the reward is greater than the risk. If the output of this function is less than 1, then the risk outweighs the reward.

2.85 times x^3 > 1
x^3 > 1/2.85
x > the cubed root of (1/2.85)
x > .705

So, 6 pt faves teased 5 pts, would have to cover (or push) at a clip greater than 70.5%, in order to say that that the reward outweighs the risk.

One problem remains: Vegas specializes in mathematics. They know the numbers, and they know what to do with them. They don't agree to pay 2.85 times the amount wagered on a 3 team teaser without first knowing that the bettor's risk outweighs his reward. This is what we all face each and every time we place a bet. That is why we look for lesser known angles or newly developing trends, (or inside information or witchcraft / ouiga boards, or luck - whatever the hell that is) in order to turn the tables in our favor over the long run.

The bottom line, though, is: there is no rational argument you can reasonably call upon to tell another bettor that he or she is being unwise, without technically committing hypocrisy. Why, because all known, substantiated statistical angles (consisting of a large enough sample size), have already been accounted for and weighted appropriately to ensure that the books always win over time.

Best of luck to you, bmore, on Washington.... and best of luck to you, Queen, on Philly. This is not hypocritical, or two faced,... only meaningless... albeit with noble intentions!

-Tesla

Very nice and a super good morning to you Tesla,

Bmore is not a hater or a bad guy. He just got out there a little sideways this week.
That was an excellent post that you made and thank you for taking the time to explain to him in that fashion.
I can not explain it that way. That was perfect. I love how you used the term "mingle" to show the association of huge and absolute 100%. I learned something from that post as well. Once again, very nice.


Go Philly
 

LADY LUCK
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Are you under a new name for the Hilton? I have not been able to find you this year.

I passed on the Super contest 2014 after giving it my best shot 4 years in a row. Hopefully, just hopefully, Murphy’s Law will kick in for me here and I’ll be kicking myself in the ass come this January. An old friend of mine that post here use to say, “less is better “. I think after five years I finally understand what he meant by that. Less is better in many more ways than he was insinuating. I cannot be forced to pick 5 games every week ATS and expect to succeed. It is too hard for me. I believe that competing in a high stakes contest like the LVH SC is a totally different beast than trying to exploit the NFL by choosing a select few games each week. Personally and this is just my opinion regarding myself, I think that contest and straight up put your $$ where your mouth is wagering on the NFL are like night and day. I thought that I wanted to pursue the dream of winning the LVH and I dished out a lot of time, energy and money doing just that over the last four seasons. It was highly entertaining but I am not interested in being entertained anymore. I am interested in choosing my spots without pressure and exploiting just that. There may be weeks that I only have one or two plays. So be it. There may be weeks that I have five plays. So be it. I am withdrawing from the high stakes competition and focusing on chosen spots from here forward. No distractions, no deadlines, no forced action. Less is better for me. That is something that I can do.
 

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QOH.....

Works again....

Thank you.....

I'm hoping you go 100% today!

Than again...

GAME.
 

LADY LUCK
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What are you making for breakfast?
Liking those Bengals.


Scrambled eggs, thick-cut slices of bacon, biscuits and gravy.
My kitchen is smelling pretty good right about now.
I know that my family and guest can smell the food while they sleep.....I love it.

Now I just need to wake them up to something good to their ears. I know that I will wake them up to something good for their tummys.


what to do what to do.....

High octane rock and roll ? No, I have two little ones here who spent the weekend. That would not be prudent.

Im thinking something really good and easy to get this September Sunday morning going really good.



here we go......


loud and proud....wake up !!!!





 

gambling dude
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There appears to be a different Queen this year! Another path of enjoyment possibly? Good to see you back. Always enjoy your input. Keep the winds at your back Q, let the breeze carry you on! Life is not a dress rehearsal. And good luck with the season...let's win some green. Most important, let's enjoy it!!
 

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Eagles will win by 14 this game Monica! Look for McCoy to break 100 rushing and Eagles finally to come out firing on all cylinders first half. Cousins is sacked 3-4 times and has 2 turnovers.
 

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Here's some dessert to go with breakfast - Clev over Baltimore OUTRIGHT! ..... Good Luck.
 

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Haha @ post #6 :) .... these silly "know-it-alls" always trying to educate others and end up looking dumb.
 

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